Author: Raza Umerani

Massive sports fanatic. Sadly a diehard DC Sports fan. Virginia Tech Sports Media and Analytics '24

32 Teams in 32 Days: New England Patriots

The Patriots rebuild seems to be going swimmingly, but they still might be a year away with some clear strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We close out the AFC East with arguably its most discussed team this offseason as the Patriots rebuild seems to be going swimmingly, but they still might be a year away with some clear strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

I’ll start by saying that I think New England has made all the right moves this offseason. Firing Jerod Mayo after finishing 4-13 was a tough call, but when you replace him with a guy like Mike Vrabel, who doesn’t just get Patriot football like few else do, but is also a tremendous head coach, it’s a no-brainer. And when you know you have a stud at quarterback with Drake Maye, beefing up his protection and giving him some more weapons on offense while bolstering the defense behind him certainly helps a ton.

The best news for Maye is that his protection simply can’t be as bad as it was in 2024. This offensive line was 31st in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block in rate while allowing 52 sacks, the fifth-most in football. It’s safe to say this was the single worst OL in the league, which made their selection of LSU OT Will Campbell Jr. an easy one. A lot of people think he has short arms and might be a better guard than tackle, but the tape doesn’t lie; this dude is a straight up animal who abused SEC defensive ends with his raw strength and elite technique. He’s going to be a hell of a blindside blocker for Maye. They also drafted Georgia center Jared Wilson in the third round: an athletic freak who can use his size to push around opposing three-techs all day. He’ll be a guard in the pros, which almost works better for him. Combine those selections with the free agent acquisitions of center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses, and you’ve got a completely overhauled and much improved offensive line. Thank God for that.

We should be seeing a lot less of this. (h/t Boston.com)

Honestly, last year’s OL being as bad as it was made Drake Maye’s season that much more impressive. The numbers certainly don’t jump off the page, but his tape was extremely promising. And he was still 20th in EPA+CPOE, 17th in success rate and 17th in QBR despite running for his life on every single play. Compare that to a guy like Caleb Williams… I’m just saying.

Still, the rest of the offense needed work. That side of the ball was an eye sore with no real playmakers, finishing 27th in EPA play, 30th in rush EPA, 31st in total offense, 32nd in passing and 30th in scoring. Well, the Pats seemed to have nailed the offseason there, too. Drafting RB TreVeyon Henderson in the second round kills about four birds with one stone, giving Maye a home run threat as a runner and a receiver with elite burst and top-end speed. Third-round pick Kyle Williams is a technician on the outside who gets to learn under free agent acquisition Stefon Diggs, who has a penchant for helping out young QBs. And, for what it’s worth, Pop Douglas had his moments last year, and Mack Hollins is a solid depth piece. New/returning OC Josh McDaniels has some pretty nice toys to play with. All in all, this offense should be infinitely better in 2025. Low bar, I know.

This defense was also pretty awful last year, finishing 30th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate while the defensive line was 23rd in pass rush win rate and 17th in run stop win rate. Well, they put their money where the mouth is to overhaul that side of the ball pretty effectively as well. New DC Terrell Williams brings a ton of juice from his time under Aaron Glenn in Detroit. Massive free agent acquisitions like Milton Williams at DT, Carlton Davis at corner, Harold Landry at OLB and Robert Spillane at ILB improve this defense at every level. The pass rush will be improved from inside and out, the run defense will be better inside the box, and the secondary will get contributions from players not named Christian Gonzalez.

Hell, even the special teams already looks better with rookie kicker Andres Borregales booting kicks in the preseason and a kid like Henderson taking kickoffs to the house.

The pride of Hopwell, Va. (h/t Roto Street Journal)

Are you starting to understand why every time you open ESPN, pundits are predicting the Patriots in the playoffs? It’s not an unfounded take.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

Again, considering this was by far the worst offensive line in football last year and New England completely overhauled and improved it, they’re going to be a much better unit this season. This is more about their potential. I think these guys have the chance to be one of the top-15 or so offensive lines in the league. I love the new tackle duo, the interior is beefy and thoroughly effective against the run and I think Doug Marrone could be a really solid OL coach. So, if they reach that level, imagine what this offense is going to look like. Drake Maye with time to throw, TreVeyon Henderson with rushing lanes… it just seems beautiful, doesn’t it?

Team MVP: QB Drake Maye
Sophomore jump? (h/t PFF)

In that vein, I think an improved offensive line means a huge 2025 for Drake Maye. I absolutely loved this kid at North Carolina, he was a top-four prospect for me into the league, and I was incredibly impressed with his play last season. Again, it was nothing flashy, but his composure in a horrendous situation really spoke volumes. I was much more impressed with Maye than I was with Williams for that reason. With a full offseason under his belt, an actually competent coaching staff and shiny new weapons surrounding him, Maye could take the leap to being a top-12 or so QB in football this year. With a skillset that perfectly embodies the franchise quarterback in today’s game — from size to mobility to arm strength and the ability to make every play — he has everything he needs to get it done.

Breakout Candidate: RB TreVeyon Henderson

Ah, the pride of Hopewell, Va. I doubt any of you remember me writing about his first game at Ohio State when he burst onto the scene with a massive touchdown against Minnesota way back in 2021. But I do! And ever since then, Tre has been my guy. He’s one of my favorite Buckeyes ever and I can’t wait to see him shine in the pros. I touched on it earlier, but he brings a blend of size, strength, burst and speed that could make him one of the league’s most deadly weapons in 2025. He’s going to catch a ton of passes and he’s going to turn a lot of short gains into massive ones, the same way he did in Columbus for four years. I wanted him in Washington for that reason, but I’ll gladly watch him tear it up for a Patriots team that I’m really excited to watch blossom into a contender in the years to come.

Record Prediction: 8-9

On that note, I don’t think this is a playoff team overnight. I still think they’re going to be vastly improved and a very solid team, but the Patriots are one year away to me, mainly because we need to see all these new pieces gel before placing any real expectations on them. What if the new-look offensive line disappoints? What if the defense still can’t stop a nosebleed? What if Maye takes a step back, not forward? I don’t think any of that will happen, but in a division with the Bills and with teams on the schedule like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, the season could feature some more downs than ups.

But, make no mistake about it, the Patriots will be back in the national spotlight and competing with the Bills for the AFC East for years to come. They’re doing everything right, and we’re going to start to see these moves bear fruit this season. We could be talking about a real Super Bowl contender in the years to come.

Next up: Atlanta Falcons

32 Teams in 32 Days: Green Bay Packers

The Packers have made major headlines this offseason and look primed to return to championship contention behind a boisterous defense and a healthy Jordan Love.

Cover photo taken from Bleacher Report.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’ve entered the homestretch, closing out the NFC North with the Packers, who have made major headlines this offseason and look primed to return to championship contention behind a boisterous defense and a healthy Jordan Love.

Until a few days ago, it felt like we knew everything there was to know about this Green Bay team. Last year was better than it felt, Love was really never himself after getting injured in the opener, the season ended with a whimper and they didn’t do a whole lot in the offseason.

That all changed rather quickly. In a process that escalated exponentially, the Packers acquired star linebacker Micah Parsons from the Cowboys, sending two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark to Dallas before giving their new pass-rusher a record-breaking four-year, $188 million extension. It’s a move that completely changes the landscape of the NFC, making an already (seemingly) good defense one to be feared, and makes the Packers a clear-cut heavyweight in a top-heavy conference.

Green Bay has their new Reggie White. (h/t D Magazine)

It’s also a move that Green Bay pretty much had to make. This defense was very Jekyll and Hyde last year — they were 4th in EPA/play but 21st in success rate, 28th in dropback success rate and 26th in pass rush win rate. They could stop the run effectively, but that was about it. Their numbers looked way better than the tape and analytics would suggest, and it eventually led to their unraveling down the stretch against teams like Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia.

To that end, I wish they did something to upgrade the secondary this summer. Moving on from Jaire Alexander felt inevitable, but I don’t know that they have an adequate replacement. Keisean Nixon and Nate Hobbs don’t exactly form the scariest corner duo in the league, even if Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard are a very solid safety tandem. If anything, this defense is opportunistic, having finished third in turnovers in 2024. I just need them to be more consistent on the backend, because the pass rush is going to be leagues better than it was previously. With Rashan Gary, Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker still holding things down, they certainly don’t lack for talent in the front seven.

A lot of people have also clamored about this offense and particularly about Jordan Love, but I’m honestly not concerned. Do I think they’d be much more feared with a true WR1? Absolutely. But, we’ve seen them make it work with their committee of WR2s, especially when Love is healthy and in a groove like late in 2023. We mustn’t forget that this guy hurt his knee in the very first game of the season last year. He was clearly never the same when he got back. His health will be a major point to watch, but as long as he’s at or close to 100%, I expect to see the Jordan Love of December and January 2023.

Besides, Love was fine last year anyways. He was 10th in EPA+CPOE, 15th in success rate and 5th in QBR. If that’s a down year, then this Packers offense should be just fine. The offensive line was 7th in pass block win rate, they resigned Zach Tom at tackle, and they’re getting the most out of RB Josh Jacobs despite subpar run blocking. If one of those WRs can take a leap — more on that later — then they could be feared.

X-Factor: The Secondary

I touched on it earlier, but this secondary needs to be better if the Packers want to reach their championship potential this year. Which means second-year DC Jeff Hafley will need to draw blood from a stone. This unit didn’t get better on paper over the offseason — if anything, this team is just hoping that their young guys step up and turn into key pieces. That doesn’t feel like an effective strategy. Neither does trying to convert WR Bo Melton into a corner. I just have this nagging feeling that the defensive backfield is what’s going to drag this Green Bay team down in the postseason. Even if Love plays like we know he can, even if the receivers show up, even if Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and the pass rush improves exponentially. I just need to see these DBs play up to par before believing that they can.

Team MVP: QB Jordan Love
Let’s see a return to form. (h/t Bleacher Report)

What Jordan Love will we see in 2025? I choose to believe it’ll be the best version of him. I hope that doesn’t come back to bite me. If you’ve been reading my stuff through the years, you know I’m pretty fond of this guy, even dating back to the Utah State days. Seeing it all come to fruition in 2023 was everything I had hoped it would be. Last year… not so much. But, again, I almost want to throw it in the bin because of the knee injury he sustained in Week 1 in Brazil. It’s hard to come back from that so quickly and still be effective. Love has the offensive line and run game to allow him to thrive, so I’m hoping that good health allows him to remain on the field and be the quarterback we know he can be.

Breakout Candidate: WR Matthew Golden

If Love is going to have the season I expect, this kid is going to play a big role in it. Ever since trading Davante Adams, the Packers have lacked a WR1. You kind of need one to win a Super Bowl. Now, they hope that Golden can be that guy. The speedster from Texas wasn’t Green Bay’s first WR taken in the first round since 2002 for no reason. With a 4.29 40 and an innate playmaking ability, he was my favorite receiver in the 2025 class — though the bar there is admittedly a little low.

That being said, I wasn’t sure that he could go somewhere and immediately be a WR1; I initially loved the idea of him going to Dallas, because being a two alongside CeeDee Lamb felt like a killer combo. It would be neat to see him shut me up. I don’t know that he has the route tree or technical skillset to develop into the Davante Adams type, but few players do. All he needs to do is prove himself as a go-to target for Love and solidify his spot as the X in this offense. Is that a high bar for a rookie? Maybe. But I think he can do it. It’s what he was drafted for, after all.

Record Prediction: 12-5

Even before the Parsons trade, I had the Packers winning the NFC North. Now, I feel a lot more confident in that pick. This pass rush is going to be so much better, even if the run defense takes a hit (Rashan Gary is arguably the best run-stopping LB in the league, anyways). The offense is going to get a boost from Golden and a healthy Love while Josh Jacobs does his usual thing. The secondary is the only thing that concerns me, but we’ll see how that plays out.

The schedule is undoubtedly tough with the NFC East and AFC North on tap, but Lambeau is obviously an anchor of success, and I think this squad can go win games at Dallas and Pittsburgh. And I sure as heck don’t want to play them in the playoffs, despite their recent track record.

The Super Bowl window is wide open in Green Bay. Let’s see if they finally, finally make that jump.

Next up: New England Patriots

32 Teams in 32 Days: Chicago Bears

The Bears are once again riding a slew of offseason hype — despite having the single biggest disaster of a 2024 season imaginable — thanks to a shiny new head coach and some offensive firepower.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re back in the NFC North with its most polarizing team as the Bears are once again riding a slew of offseason hype despite having the single biggest disaster of a 2024 season imaginable thanks to a shiny new head coach and some offensive firepower.

I couldn’t tell you why. Chicago was horrendous last year. After being billed as the greatest QB prospect of the century who was entering the greatest situation a No. 1 pick has ever been in, Caleb Williams was abysmal. They lost 10 games in a row — the worst mark in franchise history — after losing on a Hail Mary debacle in Washington. They fired their head coach and offensive coordinator in the middle of the season and finished the year with their passing game coordinator as their HC. They had four games where they didn’t score an offensive touchdown.

Don’t mind me, just putting this here. (h/t NBC News)

And yet, here we are. Another preseason of the media insisting that this is the year for Chicago because of X, Y and Z. Sure thing, y’all. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I suppose it’s not for no reason. The big move was hiring Lions OC Ben Johnson to be the new head coach, bringing his supposed offensive genius to Chicago and mold Caleb into the quarterback most people think he can be. I am personally completely out on Johnson for a number of reasons, including his strange falling out with the Commanders’ brass last offseason and his seemingly gigantic ego. This is the guy who was calling trick plays down double digits in a home playoff game, trusting a WR to make a big throw for some reason. This screams Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas to me. I do think Johnson is a good offensive mind, but I also know that he thinks very highly of himself. So I just don’t see it.

Combine that with Caleb, and I think this could go very poorly very quickly. We know the talent that the former Heisman winner has; he was the easy pick at No. 1 and obviously has one of the wildest athletic profiles we’ve ever seen from a college quarterback. But this guy was 27th in EPA+CPOE, 30th in success rate, 28th in QBR and took a league-leading 68 sacks a year ago. Everyone will blame the coaching or playcalling or offensive line or anything else under the sun. But, this offensive line was 15th in pass block win rate. And all I heard last summer was that former OC Shane Waldron was a great playcaller. And Hard Knocks told me to expect massive things out of Williams and the offense. Well, that offense finished 26th in EPA/play, 30th in success rate and 28th in scoring. So don’t give me that revisionist history.

This was an all-too familiar sight in 2024. (h/t AP Photo)

The reality is that Williams was clearly overwhelmed by the speed of the pros, often hanging onto the ball forever and running around in the backfield like he was still playing San Jose State. He was consistently inconsistent, following up great throws with zip and accuracy with floaters that’d land in the stands. The 68-sack number has more to do with his lack of a feel for the pocket and less to do with that offensive line, although I do recognize that it wasn’t ideal. But, neither was a guy like Drake Maye’s, and I felt better about his feel for it than Caleb’s.

Johnson took this job because of Williams. If these two can’t make it work together, I don’t know who the fans and media are going to blame. Because all I hear right now is how nothing is Caleb’s fault.

The good news is that Johnson is clearly going to implement the things that made his Lions offenses so effective. The Bears beefed up the interior by making moves for Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson to create one of the better guard-center-guard combos in the league. I do still worry about the tackles, which isn’t great news for Caleb, but that interior is legit — they also drafted Ozzy Trapilo in the second round for some depth at RT. They added to an already solid corps of pass-catchers by drafting TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III with their first two picks, with Johnson looking to turn the former into another Sam LaPorta. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are already solid, so this offense won’t be lacking for weapons. But, that was the case last year, too.

In any case, this defense will still be a strongsuit. They have talent everywhere and finished 13th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate last year. The real strength is the secondary, considering they were 10th in dropback EPA vs. 26th in rush EPA in 2024. And I don’t think they did enough to get better against the run this offseason, though signing Grady Jarrett and drafting Shemar Turner out of Texas A&M should help. The defensive line as a whole simply needs to be better — this unit was 24th in pass rush win rate and 29th in run stop win rate. The secondary will do their job thanks to guys like Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker, but the front seven needs to button up if they want to lend the offense a hand. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen should be able to do just that.

X-Factor: QB Caleb Williams
If not now, when? (h/t PFF)

It’s weird to say this for a No. 1 pick in year two, but this feels like a make-or-break year for Caleb. The pressure and expectations on him feel pretty tremendous. I feel bad, because I don’t think they should! He’s just in year two and he clearly has a ton of work to do. But I truly think that if this year looks like last year, this team might make a move off him. Like I said earlier, you can’t blame the coaching staff or offensive line anymore, right? This is now a second straight year of everyone saying that the situation around Caleb is a great one. So if he’s bad again, it’s solely on him.

We know he has the talent, but I really worry about the character. Laying on the ground or bench after sacks, bad body language after picks and incompletions, the weird media fiasco this summer where it seemed like he tried to avoid being drafted by Chicago and so much more. From the neck down, he has everything it takes to be a franchise QB. But from the neck up, I’m just not sure.

If he takes to coaching and learns how to be a pocket passer, use his mobility more effectively, find his accuracy and timing and rhythm and just show some more maturity, then the Bears are in business. But at this point, it feels like a big ask.

Team MVP: N/A

I don’t know. I just don’t know. I wanted to give it to the secondary or the defense at large, but they had their weak points last year and they don’t feel better this year, though I expect improvements under Dennis Allen. I wanted to give it to an individual DB like Jaylon Johnson, but it just didn’t feel right. Someone’s gotta prove to me that they deserve this spot.

Breakout Candidate: TE Colston Loveland

As I said earlier, Loveland was drafted No. 10 overall for a reason. The tight ends are a big part of Ben Johnson’s offenses, and Loveland has been brought to Chicago to fill that role, despite the Bears already having a solid option in Cole Kmet. He was a monster at Michigan thanks to his over-the-top athleticism for a guy with a 6-foot-6, 241-pound frame. He can go up and grab any ball and has some pretty underrated quickness after the catch. I expect him to make an immediate impact as not just a security blanket for Caleb, but a focal point of the passing game — again, very similar to LaPorta in Detroit. I’m not saying he’s going to be Brock Bowers from last year, but he’ll put up some pretty good numbers.

Record Prediction: 4-13

By the overwhelmingly negative tone of this preview, you could probably tell that I don’t have high hopes for the Bears. I don’t like Ben Johnson, I don’t like what I’ve seen from Caleb Williams, and I don’t understand why so many people are falling for this again. Their schedule is ridiculously hard: their division was already a gauntlet littered with elite defenses before Micah Parsons entered the equation, and they have to play the NFC East, AFC North and the 49ers. Seems like a step up from the AFC South and NFC West last season. I don’t know how this gameplan will play out for GM Ryan Poles, but I just think this season is going to be a turbulent one. And there will be some uncomfortable questions to answer come January.

Next up: Green Bay Packers

32 Teams in 32 Days: Las Vegas Raiders

The remade Raiders, who have seemingly overhauled the franchise, are looking to go from the bottom of the barrel to a position of respect after a rough few years.

Cover photo taken from PFSN.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We round out the AFC West with the remade Raiders, who have seemingly overhauled the franchise and are looking to go from the bottom of the barrel to a position of respect after a rough few years.

And I mean rough. Vegas hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2021, and their offense has been pretty difficult to watch as of late. Last season, they were 31st in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, 28th in dropback EPA, 32nd in rush EPA and 32nd in rush success rate. Since moving on from Derek Carr, juggling between Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell and others hasn’t yielded the most positive results. Shocker, I know.

As such, new general manager John Spytek decided to turn their offense completely upside down. And I loved every move he made.

It started with bringing legendary head coach Pete Carroll out of retirement and trading a third-round pick for QB Geno Smith, then signing him to a two-year, $75 million extension to provide some solid stability under center. I’m a bigger Geno fan than most, but there’s zero denying that he’s a major upgrade for Vegas considering Minshew was 29th in EPA+CPOE and 21st in success rate while Smith was 15th and 16th, respectively. And Carroll will provide some much-needed wisdom and stability at head coach, which the Raiders are desperate for after dealing with the likes of Antonio Pierce and Josh McDaniels.

Then came the draft, where the Raiders knocked it out of the park. The worst rushing offense in the league by a comfortable margin got the biggest boost possible with the selection of generational prospect Ashton Jeanty in the first round. The Heisman runner-up (still think he should’ve won it) who just had 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns at Boise State is arguably the best back to come out of college since Saquon Barkley and will be an instant impact player in a backfield that desperately needed him. Between his size, burst, quickness, toughness and speed, I expect him to have a massive rookie season and immediately be a top-10 RB in the league.

The Silver Surfer. (h/t PFSN)

Vegas also needed some pass-catchers on the outside to complement last year’s first-round TE Brock Bowers, who had a ridiculous rookie season with 112 catches, 1,194 and five touchdowns. Enter two fresh new WRs: TCU’s Jack Bech in the second and Tennessee’s Dont’e Thonrton in the fourth. The former a classic inside-outside receiver with sticky hands and reliable toughness, the latter a 6-foot-5 blur to take the top off of defenses. With Geno under center, Jeanty in the backfield and this set of receivers across the board, this offense should be vastly improved in 2025.

I do still worry about the defense, though. Could it be better? Sure. Will it be good? I don’t know. Maxx Crosby is one of the league’s premier edge rushers — more on that later — Adam Butler is a solid presence in the middle of the line, Jeremy Chinn was a nice addition at safety and I think Darien Porter could be a stud at corner. But that’s about it. I just don’t know if this unit improved enough from last year to be any better. That’s not a bad thing — they were 16th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate. Just an observation.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

The Raiders didn’t take Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick for no reason. They’re not necessarily going to be a run-first team, but they sure as hell will need to run the ball effectively to be the offense they want to be. I think Jeanty can make it work in any circumstance, but this offensive line improving from a year ago would go a long way. They were just 22nd in the league in run block win rate in 2024 and didn’t do a lot to bolster that unit. If they do improve in that department, it’ll go a hell of a long way. And even if they get better at pass blocking — they were 17th in that department last year — it’ll definitely help Geno, who had to deal with Seattle’s inept OL in the past several years. Simply put, if this line does its job, this could really be one of the 10-12 best offenses in the league.

Team MVP: EDGE Maxx Crosby
Dog. (h/t Sports Illustrated)

As I said earlier, Crosby is simply one of the best in the biz. An ankle injury derailed his 2024, but he was still 9th in pass rush win rate among edges and racked up 7.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. In the previous two seasons, he racked up 27 sacks and a league-leading 45 TFLs. He’s simply a machine. And the Raiders paid him as such, rewarding him with a three-year, $106.5 million extension. When healthy, there’s no denying how dominant he is. Let’s hope he stays on the field in 2025.

Breakout Candidate: WR Dont’e Thornton Jr.

If you’ve been paying any attention to the Raiders in the preseason and training camp, you’ve probably heard Thornton’s name. And for good reason. He’s 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, runs a 4.3 40, can take the top off any defense and can Moss any corner you throw his way. His physical attributes have never been a question; he was one of the top WRs in his recruiting class, after all. But the production was just never there to match it in college. But those traits will translate to the NFL, especially with a guy like Geno throwing you the ball. Smith was the second-most accurate quarterbacks on throws of 20-plus yards in 2024, trailing only Joe Burrow. I have a feeling that Thornton will be his favorite downfield target, opening up the ability for massive plays in an offense that really needs them.

Record Prediction: 8-9

The Raiders are doing all the right things right now. But three things remain true. One, this is still the wild, wild AFC West. Two, it’s just year one of this rebuild. Three, the schedule is pretty tough. They’ve got to play the Eagles, Commanders, Texans and Patriots outside of their divisional gauntlet. They’re going to be much improved, but there’s still some work to do, particularly on defense. But I think Geno and Jeanty will be awesome, I think Bowers will have another great year, Thornton and Bech could flash some real potential, and Crosby will once again be a game-wrecker. They’ll be a very fun watch.

Next up: Chicago Bears

32 Teams in 32 Days: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re sticking in the AFC West, where the Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.

No, I’m not exaggerating. And I’ll tell you why.

The Broncos have done everything right since moving on from Russell Wilson. While it felt like that trade and contract were going to bury them from years, they’ve risen from the hypothetical ashes as a literal phoenix to do everything they need to do to win football games.

In this league, you can get the QB right, then let the rest fall into place. This, however, is the alternative: a three-step equation that precedes getting a quarterback right.

Step one: hire the right coach. Denver knocked it out of the park by bringing in Sean Payton last season, who clearly had plenty of juice left after “retiring” several years ago. He just knows how to win, and he knows how to work with the quarterbacks of his choosing.

Step two: build the trenches. My God, have the Broncos done that. They were one of two teams to finish in the top-10 of pass block (1st) and rush (2nd) win rate as well as run block (1st) and stop (8th) win rate. The other was the Super Bowl champion Eagles.

Step three: Build a championship defense. I’d like to think that this unit that ranked 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate, 1st in dropback EPA and 2nd in rush success rate fits the bill. That’s what happens when you have the defensive player of the year in Patrick Surtain II — who has clearly emerged as the league’s best DB. But it’s more than that. Edge rusher Zach Allen had the third-best pass rush win rate in the league last year while DT DJ Jones was second in the NFL among tackles in run stop win rate. Nik Bonitto has blossomed into one of the league’s brightest young talents at linebacker. Now, he has Dre Greenlaw alongside him with Talanoa Hufanga patrolling the defensive backfield and first-round pick Jahdae Barron locking down the opposite boundary of Surtain. I mean, good lord.

So, all of that elite roster-building by GM George Paton allowed them to tie it all together with the franchise QB of their choosing. And at first, I wasn’t sure about the choice. But Bo Nix has proven his worth after being picked 12th overall a year ago. That being said… I don’t think he’s that good yet.

Nix definitely finished the year way stronger than he started it, which goes a long way. In September, he clearly still had the training wheels on — a little odd for a five-year college starter — and the speed of the pros seemed to rattle him. But, by December, he was vastly improved, finishing the year with 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

What’s his ceiling? (h/t PFF)

I usually hesitate to call guys “system quarterbacks,” but it just felt like Nix was a small cog in a larger system than the one that drove the bus. He was just 19th in EPA+CPOE and 22nd in success rate while the offense ranked 16th in EPA/play. That’s a whole lotta mid. I don’t know if he has what it takes to elevate the guys around him, and I worry that what we saw last year was his ceiling as a pro; after all, he was only taken where he was because the Broncos had no other choice.

Here’s the good news: in the case that I’m right, Denver is still going to be fine. Nix and Payton have a perfect marriage and I think he’s good enough within the confines of this system (especially with that offensive line) to put them in a position to contend in the AFC. Him not being an elite quarterback is fine. Teams like the Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers prove that you don’t need crazy good QB play when the rest of the roster is as ridiculously talented as it is.

X-Factor: The Pass-Catchers

It would certainly help Bo Nix if this wide receiver and tight end corps develops into a better one. Yes, Courtland Sutton has been a great player for a long time and got a well-deserved extension this offseason. But after that, there’s some potential left to be reached considering no other player had more than 503 receiving yards — less than half of Sutton’s total — last year. I think guys like Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin could turn into truly elite deep threats in the slot, and this year’s third-rounder Pat Bryant has the frame and skillset to turn into a really nice complement to Sutton. Plus, Evan Engram could turn into a reliable security blanket at tight end considering how many targets he saw in Jacksonville. All of that would go a long way in helping Nix and elevating this offense to be better than the frankly mediocre one they were a year ago.

Team MVP: The Offensive Line
Best starting five in the league. (h/t Getty Images)

I could’ve gone a number of ways here. I really wanted to give it to Patrick Surtain, but sometimes, you gotta show love to the hog mollies.

The incredibly high level of play that this OL had a year ago is astounding. By the numbers, this might’ve been the best offensive line I’ve ever seen and was one of the biggest reasons why Bo Nix was such a success in his rookie season. Garrett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz and Mike McGlinchey are by far the best starting five in the league. I already mentioned how this OL was first in both pass block and run block win rate in 2024, so I’m just going to leave these here for you to look at:

Garrett Bolles: 7th in PBWR among OT, ranked 5th in pass blocking grade among OT by PFF

Ben Powers: 5th in PBWR among IOL, 1st in RBWR among IOL

Luke Wattenberg: 2nd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 2nd in pass blocking grade among centers by PFF

Quinn Meinerz: 3rd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 3rd-highest overall guard by PFF (6th in pass blocking, 3rd in run blocking), voted First Team All-Pro

Mike McGlinchey: 6th in PBWR among OT

I rest my case.

Breakout Candidate: RB R.J. Harvey

I held off talking about Harvey for this long, so let’s get into it. A solid and consistent run game is what was missing from this offense last year. Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime were a mediocre committee at best, hence why Williams and Estime are now gone. JK Dobbins was brought in to be a steady vet in the backfield, but the real guy to watch is the second-round pick from UCF.

Harvey was an absolute stud in college with nearly 3,000 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground in his final two seasons. Those are ridiculous numbers. He might be smaller in size, but he’s got the burst and quickness to make up for it. More than anything, I have a feeling that he’s going to emerge as a security blanket for Nix in the passing game, turning into a Bucky Irving of sorts by catching a ton of checkdowns and making his money after the catch. In any case, I think he’ll be the starting tailback in no time sheerly by having the highest upside of anyone in that backfield.

Record Prediction: 11-6

I have pretty high hopes for this team. I think they should be a playoff team fairly easily despite the rest of this division being a gauntlet and tough games against Washington, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Houston and Green Bay. The offensive infrastructure and defensive dominance will be enough to get to double digit wins and a Wild Card spot. I just think the lack of elite QB play will prevent them from winning the division. Plus, as I’ve been saying with these AFC West teams, I won’t believe that the Chiefs can be dethroned until I see it. But I’m a massive fan of this roster, and I’m excited to see if they can build off last year’s success and be better this fall.

Next up: Las Vegas Raiders

32 Teams in 32 Days: Los Angeles Chargers

Even with a very talented roster, the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.

Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

Our second dip into the AFC West brings us out to Los Angeles, where the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.

I want to believe in this franchise. Truly, I do. Jim Harbaugh is an elite head coach. You guys know how much I love Justin Herbert. By all means, this is one of the best HC-QB duos in the league. And the rest of the roster is pretty good to boot. I just don’t know that it’ll ever gel and result in truly contending in a stacked AFC, particularly with the rest of the West vastly improving.

Last year could’ve been the year. They were well-balanced and kept the ball out of harm’s way, finishing 4th in turnover differential. The offense was 12th in EPA/play while the defense was 5th and led the league in scoring. Herbert was good, but not great, finishing 13th in EPA+CPOE and failing to reach 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career (in a full season). And while he finished with just three interceptions in the regular season, we all know how the playoffs went: a four-interception disasterclass in Houston leading to another playoff exit, leaving Herbert searching for that first postseason victory.

Disasterclass. (h/t Texans Wire)

So, regardless of how this regular season goes, the real key for this Chargers team is postseason play. The good news is that I fully expect them to get there. This roster is largely the same from a year ago with some big improvements in key areas, but there are a couple of places that I think could drag this squad down.

The first is the offensive line. Losing star LT Rashawn Slater for the season thanks to a freak injury in camp is simply brutal. It’s going to drastically effect Herbert’s protection and definitively hurt the OL’s run blocking. Last year’s first-round pick Joe Alt will slide to the left, which will be fine considering he played there in college and finished last year 4th among all tackles in pass block win rate. But, that leaves RT as a question mark, though Trey Pipkins is a capable player. I do like bringing in Mekhi Becton at guard, but the number of snaps he can play there is limited.

The second is the secondary, which wasn’t awful last year but doesn’t feel much better this year. Yes, there are decent pieces like Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart and Alohi Gilman, and Derwin James is a superstar at safety. But these corners feel very susceptible to me, and they didn’t make any moves in free agency to make me feel better about that. In fact, they made it worse by signing Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson.

The front seven should be fine despite losing Poona Ford, but they also lack the proverbial oomph needed to make me feel confident. But, DC Jesse Minter has proven himself to make it work regardless of the circumstance, and I don’t see why he can’t coach this unit to punch above its weight and finish as one of the best in the league again.

The good news is on offense. The RB room is getting a massive lift with the addition of first-round pick Omarion Hampton from North Carolina, who this coaching staff keeps raving about. He’s a bruiser who’s hard to bring down but has plenty of speed to his game, which could give the Chargers the spark they didn’t have out of the backfield a year ago. They also added Najee Harris in free agency, which was a move I didn’t really like in the moment and like a lot less now that he’s dealing with eye problems after a firework incident on Independence Day.

And I truly think this might be the best set of receivers that Herbert has ever had. Ladd McConkey is a bonafide stud at WR, coming off a massive rookie season with 82 catches, 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. Tre Harris is a second-round pick with a ton of upside that’ll see the field right away. Even fifth-rounder KeAndre Lambert-Smith is turning heads in the preseason. If Quentin Johnston can build off a much-improved 2024 — big ask, I know — then this could be a better passing offense than we realize.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

Without Slater, this offensive line will have to collectively pick up the slack to keep Herbert upright and get this run game going. I outlined why I think that can happen, but in the event that it doesn’t, this offense could fall apart in a jiffy. I think Herbert can still be an effective quarterback and facilitator the way Harbaugh wants him to be even if the line play isn’t as good, but that’s a problem no QB ever wants to have. And if Hampton and the RBs can’t get it going, it’ll only bring the offense down more. This defense is good, but it’s not built to overcome that many problems. They’re meant to complement the death-by-a-thousand-papercuts offense.

Team MVP: QB Justin Herbert
He’s still really good. I promise. (h/t Athlon Sports)

For the millionth year in a row, it feels like Herbert is the most overhated quarterback in the league. Look, I know neither of his playoff games have gone very well. I think one of those is entirely his fault while the other one isn’t really. In any case, I know what my eyes tell me: Justin Herbert is a cyborg. This dude was built in a lab to play quarterback. At 6-foot-6, 236 pounds with an arm that can make any throw and honestly underrated mobility, he makes plays every week that make me sit up in my chair, even with Harbaugh and company dialing him back a little bit. He has the skillset and the tape that can go band for band with any other QB in football. For my money, he’s still the 6th best quarterback in the league. But, playoff performance is imperative. I need to see him finally show up and play a complete game in the postseason and just win. So many playoff wins and losses are decided by the quarterback, and right now, his playoff reputation is one of being a loser. Until that narrative is dispelled, he’s not going to get the national respect I think he deserves.

Breakout Candidate: RB Omarion Hampton

Jim Harbaugh has made his money with elite running back play. Toby Gerhart, Frank Gore, Karan Higdon, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards. Now, he gets Omarian Hampton to mess around with. He may lack the quickness of some of the better backs in the league, but once he gets going downhill, he’s hard to stop. I do have concerns about whether that deficiency of burst will hold him back from being a great back at the next level, but if he can find it, there’s no stopping this kid. He was the second RB off the board for a reason. You don’t want to be seeing him in the open field.

Record Prediction: 12-5

If I was redoing my record predictions today (full disclosure, I completed it before I started this series, which may have been a mistake considering how much things change in the preseason), I’d probably have this team closer to 10 or 11 wins. But, I’ll keep them at 12 for now because of how much I trust this head coach and quarterback. If the defense can keep up the level of play that they had last year and the offense gets that little bit of juice out of the newcomers, this should be a very similar, if not better season in LA. But, like I said, the real test will come in the postseason. They’ll likely have to go on the road in Wild Card weekend, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess.

Next up: Denver Broncos

32 Teams in 32 Days: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings enter the season with sky-high hopes thanks to completely overachieving in 2024. But, with a complete unknown under center, this year could go any which way in Minnesota.

Cover photo taken from Chron.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re finally back in the NFC North, where the Vikings enter the season with sky-high hopes despite a complete unknown under center thanks to completely overachieving in 2024.

This is a really perplexing set of circumstances. After a 14-3 season, you’d think a team would have high hopes for the following season, especially when they retain so much talent. But that doesn’t feel like the case in Minnesota, because 2024 felt more like a total flash in the pan rather than something that can be sustained. However, I think if all goes well, this squad can once again compete for a division title.

Just to touch on last year, because it was crazy, I honestly thought the Vikings were going to compete for a Super Bowl. We all know how it ended, with one-year rental QB Sam Darnold crashing out in the final game of the regular season to miss out on the NFC North title and 1-seed before putting on a worthy encore in the Wild Card game. He lost himself a solid chunk of change in the process. But, for those magical first 16 games, this team was a machine.

Multi-million-dollar crashout. (h/t Los Angeles Times)

The offense wasn’t mind-boggling at 14th in EPA/play, but they were 5th in dropback success rate thanks to Darnold’s play and HC Kevin O’Connell’s brilliance. Sam ranked 12th in EPA+CPOE and 14th in QBR but fifth in passing yards and touchdowns with 4,319 and 35, respectively. Justin Jefferson did Jettas things with a monstrous 1,533-yard, 10-touchdown campaign, tying a career-high in scores. And the offensive line really held up despite a season-ending injury sustained by star LT Christian Darrisaw as they finished 2nd in pass block win rate.

But really, the story of that team was its defense, which DC Brian Flores turned into an absolutely fearsome one. 2nd in EPA/play, 5th in success rate, 1st in rush EPA, 5th in scoring, 1st in interceptions and 1st in total takeaways. I mean, good lord. Oh, and the defensive line was 4th in both pass rush and run stop win rate, with star LB Jonathan Greenard ranking 10th in the former and 4th in the latter.

You wanna know the crazy part heading into this year? I think this roster genuinely got better across the board. The defensive interior got a boost with the additions of veterans Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. The offensive line got a giant boost with a completely remade guard-center-guard combo of first-round pick Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly and Will Fries. Consider Darrisaw at LT and Brian O’Neill — who ranked 3rd among all tackles in pass block win rate — at RT and you might have the best offensive line in the league. The secondary losing Cam Bynum and Stephon Gilmore is a little spooky, but I think Flores can make it work with anyone.

The only real question surrounding the Vikings in 2025 is the biggest possible one: the quarterback. Sam Darnold likely would’ve been the starter last year, but he got full control of the ship because Minnesota’s first-round selection JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. Now, Darnold is out and JJ is in to try and become the franchise QB up north. And I honestly have no idea how to feel about it.

It’s anyone’s guess at this point. (h/t Chron)

I wasn’t super high on JJ coming out of Michigan; his talent and intangibles were clearly impressive, but he was never anything more than a game-manager and lacked in the type of film that makes your ears perk up. But, I thought he could be a successful NFL QB in the right system. Well, this is the right system. O’Connell can make things work with me at QB, and behind this new offensive line with the type of weapons they have, I think McCarthy will be just fine.

There might be some growing pains in what’s essentially his rookie season, but the coaching, infrastructure, talent and his mental fortitude are strong enough for this team to be plenty good once again.

X-Factor: QB JJ McCarthy

Honestly, just read those last few grafs. I know I always say the team goes as the QB goes, but it really feels that way in this case. While I don’t doubt that O’Connell can get blood from a stone at quarterback, it’s on JJ to lead this team to the heights they reached last season. If he’s truly the guy, then there’s no reason why this team can’t contend in the NFC like they did last season. But, if it’s a rocky year under center, I don’t know that they can, even with how great the defense is going to be.

Team MVP: WR Justin Jefferson
He’s pretty good. (h/t PFF)

After Ja’Marr Chase won the triple crown last year, a lot of people slotted him as their No. 1 receiver in the league. I’m still not so sure it’s not Jettas. Now, I know whoever has Chase at 1 has Jefferson at 2, and many will have them at 1a and 1b, but I’m still giving the edge to Justin. There are very few receivers I’ve watched that make the game look as easy as he does. It’s just so natural, so free-flowing, so effortless. His route-running is poetry in motion and his ability at the catch point is jaw-dropping. I have no idea what to expect in terms of his production with McCarthy, but I don’t doubt that Jettas is in for another massive season to continue his otherworldly career thus far.

Breakout Candidate: WR Tai Felton

With star WR2 Jordan Addison facing a three-game suspension to open the season, the options beside Jefferson should be Jalen Nailor and this year’s third-round pick out of Maryland, Tai Felton. But, with Nailor suffering a hand injury in camp, Felton could very well be the second option. And with the attention that Jefferson commands, that’ll bust the door wide open for Felton to make a massive impact in the first few weeks of the season. Despite some subpar size, he has clear twitch and speed, running a 4.37 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine in February. If he gets the ball in space, watch out. And defenses will need to respect him, because he can take the top off the secondary. It’ll be interesting to see how he fits into this offense, and how JJ McCarthy tries to get him the ball. I have high hopes for the kid, and I’m rooting for him as a DMV guy.

Record Prediction: 8-9

This one was hard. I simply don’t know how to feel about this offense, and I don’t know what to expect out of JJ McCarthy. What if he gets hurt again? What if he doesn’t live up to the hype? What if he’s straight up bad? I should preface this by saying I don’t think those things will happen. I think JJ will be a fine player — maybe nothing Earth-shattering but definitely a franchise guy. I just think this year will be one where the offense has to feel itself out as they adjust. Plus, this schedule sure as hell ain’t easy; I actually like Minnesota to start out undefeated in the first three or four weeks, but then the going gets plenty tough. This is closer to their floor than their ceiling. I just don’t know if I can confidently say that they’ll reach that higher mark right now.

Next up: Los Angeles Chargers

32 Teams in 32 Days: Pittsburgh Steelers

Arguably the busiest offseason in the NFL has many believing that the Steelers are finally back to being Super Bowl contenders. I, however, am not convinced.

Cover photo taken from Bleacher Report.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re rounding out the AFC North in the land of the Yinzers, where arguably the busiest offseason in the NFL has many believing that the Steelers are finally back to being Super Bowl contenders. I, however, am not convinced.

If nothing else, the Steelers are consistent. Consistently mediocre? Sure. This proud franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since Barack Obama was president and has repeatedly crashed out of the postseason after hot regular season starts. Sure, they haven’t had a losing season in Mike Tomlin’s tenure, but that’s not enough anymore. It’s the standard, but at some point, a new standard has to be set.

You have to imagine that’s what the crux of this summer was in Pittsburgh: pushing whatever chips they have to the center of the table and seeing if they can get away with bluffing.

It feels crazy to think about the Steelers being 10-3 last year, but they won a ton of games in typical Steelers fashion en route to losing their last four regular season games and being blown out of the water in the Wild Card at Baltimore. This team was just pure mid a year ago, with an offense that ranked 20th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate and 27th in passing yards. The defense is obviously the strong suit, having ranked 9th in EPA/play and 8th in points per game, but that’s still nothing mind-boggling. They didn’t have consistent quarterback play from Justin Fields or Russell Wilson, they couldn’t run the ball effectively enough to balance that out and the defense simply fell apart down the stretch.

So, to fix the quarterback play, they bring in 41-year old Aaron Rodgers. Genius idea, guys!

ARod is obviously a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL history, but let’s not kid ourselves here. This is the last dance. He can still sling the rock, but he’s just a fraction of the player he once was. With the Jets last year, he was 22nd in EPA+CPOE and 25th in QBR. Russell Wilson was 18th and 22nd, respectively. So, I guess this is a downgrade for Pittsburgh? Combine that with all of his off-the-field nonsense — though, if anyone can steer him in the right direction, it’s his good friend Mike Tomlin — and I just don’t like this move.

It just looks wrong, doesn’t it? (h/t Bleacher Report)

To lift up their new signal-caller, the Steelers traded the walking emotional rollercoaster in George Pickens to Dallas and acquired the polarizing DK Metcalf from Seattle, then signed him to a very generous four-year, $132 million contract extension. I’m not going to dive into how I feel about that deal, but just know that I don’t feel many positive emotions. Regardless, it means that Rodgers will have the vertical threat that he wants in this offense, even if OC Arthur Smith doesn’t want to attack downfield very much. Pittsburgh also moved off of Najee Harris and drafted star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to be his replacement. That is a move I feel good about; Johnson was a stud in college and brings a unique blend of contact balance and explosiveness to a run game that desperately needs it.

Another productive pass-catcher was added in TE Jonnu Smith, which is a solid move to be sure, but the story of that move was the other players that were involved. The Steelers sent standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back to Miami in exchange for DB Jalen Ramsey, who is exiting his prime, but can still produce on his good days. Honestly, that swap feels like a wash. Bringing in Chuck Clark and Juan Thornhill in free agency can help soften the blow of losing Minkah, and adding Ramsey to a corner room which already gained Darius Slay means that even if that group lacks talent, they’ll have experience. Plus, Joey Porter Jr. has emerged as a guy who can line up across from an opposing WR1.

In any case, the strength of this team will be its front seven, as is always the case. Last year, they were third in pass rush win rate, but just 17th in run stop win rate. The usual suspects are still here: TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward, Patrick Queen. And Payton Wilson quietly had a very good rookie year at LB. That makes for an effective pass rush. But the Steelers should be better against the run with the selection of DT Derrick Harmon in the first round; not to mention, Keeanu Benton has really come on strong to help lock down the interior as well.

X-Factor: QB Aaron Rodgers

Always feels a little cheap to put the quarterback as the X-factor, but this one is pretty obvious, right? We know the defense is going to be one of the 10 best in the league. We know the special teams will be great. I have a feeling the offensive line will hold up. The weapons don’t really matter as much as the QB does. And when that QB is Aaron Rodgers, and all of the eyes are on you every weekend, it’s that much more important. I honestly don’t know how much more Rodgers has in the tank. He flashed some really good stuff last year, but was more inconsistent than anything else and posted the worst passer rating of his career — that’s a feat he’s now done twice in his last two full seasons of starting. He’s clearly on the decline, and this offense clearly isn’t good enough to lift him up. So, who’s doing the heavy lifting on that side of the ball? Anyone? Not really. He’ll be good enough to keep things afloat, but I genuinely think this might’ve been a situational downgrade from Russ, especially in Arthur Smith’s offense.

Team MVP: T.J. Watt
Best defensive player on the planet? (h/t KGET)

Pretty obvious choice here. Watt has emerged as one of the league’s most consistently dominant players, wrecking games week in and week out with his remarkable athleticism and playmaking ability. He’s the heart and soul of this football team, and maybe even the city at large. He may have had a quiet 2024, ranking 12th in PRWR with 11 sacks, six forced fumbles and no interceptions. But that being a “down year” just goes to show how elite he is. Now that he’s received his well-deserved three-year, $123 million contract extension, I fully expect him to get back to his dominant ways and make another push for Defensive Player of the Year, so long as he stays on the field.

Breakout Candidate: WR Roman Wilson

All the reports concerning last year’s third-round wide receiver out of Steelers camp have been overwhelmingly positive. Whether it’s Wilson’s rapport with Rodgers growing or simply his strong development, it appears the former Michigan man is in for a big 2025 now that he’s being inserted into the starting lineup. At 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, size has always been a concern, but he could feasibly be a Randall Cobb-type player and emerge as a security blanket underneath for Rodgers while Metcalf is too busy running in a straight line downfield. That’s where he made his money with JJ McCarthy when they were both Wolverines, after all.

Record Prediction: 9-8

It’s like taking candy from a baby at this point, isn’t it? Steelers make a push to finish above .500, everyone lauds Mike Tomlin for once again avoiding a losing record, but it’s not enough to make anything close to a push for a Super Bowl. I just don’t have enough faith in this offense to produce anything close to what’s necessary for them to make legitimate noise in the AFC. I think this is a second-place team at best, and I have them as the first team out of the playoffs while the division rival Bengals snatch that last spot in the final week of the season. Then, Rodgers retires and spends the rest of his life doing whatever the hell he wants, and the Steelers remain a direction-less franchise holding onto six Super Bowls and another winning record as the playoff win drought reaches a decade.

Next up: Minnesota Vikings

32 Teams in 32 Days: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are once again among the favorites to win the Super Bowl after another year of falling short of expectations. But things will be different this time… right?

Cover photo taken from KGET.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

The wheel is mercifully starting to heat up. We’re headed up I-95 to Baltimore, where the Ravens are once again among the favorites to win the Super Bowl after another year of falling short of expectations. But things will be different this time… right?

I, for one, will not be drinking the black, purple and gold Kool-Aid that so many others do year after year, but I can recognize that this Ravens team is set up to do some real damage and should — should!!! — contend for a title this winter. It’s fairly easy to see why.

Last year, this offense was simply a machine. Not only balanced, but remarkably effective in every aspect: first in EPA/play, second in success rate, first in dropback EPA, second in rush EPA, first in total yards, first in rushing, third in scoring. That’s just insane. With an offensive line that ranked third in both pass block and run block win rates, the floodgates were opened for this Ravens offense to be arguably the best in the league.

Obviously, there were two main catalysts that allowed that to happen: Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Lamar was simply brilliant last year and would’ve had my MVP vote if I possessed one, putting together what I considered to be his best season as a passer with 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions, the fourth-highest single-season passer rating ever at 119.6, the top QBR the second-highest EPA+CPOE in the league. Oh, and he also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns. My God. He deserved MVP far more last year than he did in 2023, but at least he got that one to balance out last year.

Then there’s Derrick Henry, whose acquisition instantly turned this Baltimore offense from feared to nightmarish. Combining him with Lamar almost felt illegal, and the results showed: a monstrous 1,921-yard, 16-touchdown campaign. Any and all questions of the vet slowing down or facing a wall at the end of his career were swiftly vanquished. Now, my only question is how long he can keep it up for. Because at this rate, he’ll be going strong for several more years.

Seriously, who allowed this? (h/t WMAR)

The offense figures to be largely the same in 2025, though versatile lineman Patrick Mekari is now gone. Still, with Lamar and Henry in the backfield and reliable targets Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman out wide, this should once again be one of the league’s most feared and productive units this season.

Baltimore’s defense, however, is a bit of a different story — one that’s more Jekyll and Hyde. They were all over the place a year ago: 11th in EPA/play, third in success rate and rush EPA plus first in rushing yards, but 31st in passing yards. The secondary can be pointed towards as a clear weak spot, but really, I think it was the lack of pass rush that did the unit in. They were a drab 29th in pass rush win rate and lacked a clear blue-chip edge-rushing threat. The secondary’s shortcomings were just the cherry on top, even though there are studs back there like Nate Wiggins and Kyle Hamilton.

As such, the Ravens attacked that side of the ball quite hard this summer. First, through the draft: standout Georgia safety Malaki Starks was their first-round selection, then they chose to ignore some off-the-field concerns and draft Marshall’s star pass rusher Mike Green in the second, who’s undoubtedly a hell of a football player. Later selections like Teddye Buchanan and Aeneas Peebles figure to be solid depth pieces as well, and both have the athletic profile to make an impact when their numbers are called this year. Then, about two months later, they chose to scoop up free agent DB Jaire Alexander, hoping to squeeze some more juice out of him after the Packers deemed themselves done with the former All-Pro. His health will always be a concern, and I don’t know what to expect out of him when he’s on the field (sounds like another veteran corner I know about an hour south of Baltimore). But, if he can stay on the field and play up to a solid level, this secondary will be so much better because of it. Besides, anyone is an upgrade over Brandon Stephens, right Ravens fans?

X-Factor: Playoff Lamar
Not again. (h/t Syracuse.com)

There is no denying that Lamar Jackson is one of the greatest regular season performers we’ve ever seen. There is also no denying that he’s just a different and worse player in the postseason. I don’t know if it’s the pressure of the moment, the increased defensive intensity or even the gosh darn cold, but we’ve now seen two terrible performances in a row in massive playoff games where the Ravens were favored. And this obviously goes way back to 2019 when Baltimore went one-and-done as the 1-seed in his first MVP season.

In eight career playoff games, Lamar is 3-5 with 10 passing touchdowns to 13 turnovers (seven interceptions, six lost fumbles) and a passer rating south of 85. That’s over 17 points lower than his career regular season rating of 102.0. It’s honestly unfathomable.

People love to blame last year’s loss on Mark Andrews’ fumble and/or dropped two-point conversion, but it’s Jackson who had two horrendous first-half turnovers to put the Ravens in a hole to begin with. Despite his late-game heroics, he was to blame for the deficit. Again, if you take it back a year, people point fingers at Zay Flowers for the AFC title game loss to Kansas City when Lamar was straight up putrid with an awful interception into triple coverage and an overall scared and skiddish performance.

I’m not trying to audit Lamar’s whole playoff career here. I’m just saying that this is what needs to change for the Ravens to finally get over the hump and get to a Super Bowl with him under center. Quarterback play is the clear differentiator in today’s NFL, especially in the playoffs. You’ve got to play up to a standard to win games in January. Lamar is yet to reach that standard.

Team MVP: Lamar Jackson

For the sake of being brief, I won’t keep on keeping on about Lamar. But I do wanna take this space to say something. If you’re still doubting Lamar Jackson’s ability as a passer or as a “quarterback,” I’ve got no more words for you. The dude has proven time and time again that he can only get better and better, particularly from the pocket. Yes, so much of his heroics comes from extending plays for seemingly minutes on end before finding his receivers downfield. But from the pocket, he’s gotten substantially better as well. Just because it’s not flashy and showing up in your Twitter feed doesn’t mean it’s not happening. And as long as he continues to improve from the pocket while still being Lamar freaking Jackson from outside it, he’ll be a top-5 player in football for years to come.

Breakout Candidate: CB Nate Wiggins

I had mild concerns with Wiggins in last year’s draft because of his size; he’s long, but he’s wiry, and I still have Emmanuel Forbes PTSD. Well, it turns out Wiggins is actually just a stud. He’s always around the ball, using his length to be a PBU machine and always disrupt plays in the passing game. He’s also shockingly effective against the run for a DB of his size and frame. The Ravens don’t draft you in the first round for no reason, so I guess it’s not a huge shock that he’s developing into a stud. I fully expect Wiggins to turn into a top-10 corner in the league in the next couple of years, and the thought of that combined with the duo of Kyle Hamilton and Malaki Starks at safety is frankly terrifying.

Record Prediction: 12-5

This year’s schedule feels harder than last year’s. I think playing the 2025 NFC North will be tougher than the 2024 NFC East, I think the Steelers could pose more of a threat, and I think playing a one-off against the Rams is tougher than last year’s at Tampa Bay. Plus, having to go to Buffalo, Kansas City and Green Bay is just brutal — those are three of your five losses right there. Still, I have the Ravens winning the AFC North pretty comfortably and getting to the playoffs as the 3-seed behind the Chiefs and Bills, meaning they’ll once again have to go to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. I think I know how that’ll go.

Next up: Pittsburgh Steelers

32 Teams in 32 Days: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has been brought back to Earth after being denied an unprecedented three-peat thanks to an all-time shellacking in the Super Bowl. But, they’re still the Chiefs, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. And that’s enough.

Cover photo taken from FOX Sports.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re finally taking our talents to the AFC West, where Kansas City has been brought back to Earth after being denied an unprecedented three-peat thanks to an all-time shellacking in the Super Bowl. But, they’re still the Chiefs, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. And that’s enough.

Say what you will about the Chiefs last year; “They got lucky!” or “The games were rigged!” or even “They didn’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl!” Nonsense. Put aside your hatred towards this franchise and simply recognize that this is how dynasties operate. It’s how the Patriots were for the 21st century before Mahomes rolled along.

That being said, last year was particularly peculiar for Kansas City. They set an NFL record going 10-0 in one-score games with many of them coming in ridiculous fashion. Games against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Las Vegas and others easily could’ve gone the other way, but the Chiefs still wound up at 15-1 in games that mattered en route to another trip to the Super Bowl — their third straight and fifth in six years.

But, between the close games and nothing crazy on either side of the ball, they didn’t really have the makings of a 15-win team. They were 9th in EPA/play on offense and 15th on defense, though it always felt like the defense was better. Similarly, the offensive line was eighth in pass block win rate and seventh in run block win rate despite feeling like the unit was a clear weak spot. Meanwhile, the defensive line was 19th in pass rush win rate and 21st in run stop win rate.

All the while, Mahomes had the worst season of his career with his lowest yardage and touchdown output ever. He was just 11th in EPA+CPOE and eighth in QBR while ranking 30th in ADOT above just Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa. In very anti-Mahomes fashion, he completed just 39.5% of passes that traveled 15 or more yards in the air, throwing four touchdowns and six interceptions on those passes. Losing Rashee Rice to injury early in the season didn’t help with that, but it’s still a pretty absurd figure considering the usual identity of this offense.

2024 was not very Mahomes-like. (h/t FOX Sports)

Still, the Chiefs did what they had to do in the playoffs, once again beating little brother Buffalo to get the chance to complete the league’s first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. We all know what happened next. I don’t want to rehash it. Now, it’s a matter of what comes next. Getting crushed in Super Bowl LV didn’t bury this franchise, because they’re pretty un-buri-able (hooray for words). But getting back to the mountaintop won’t be easy.

Travis Kelce is old. Borderline washed. Last year was by far the worst of his illustrious career, which is really saying something considering he had 97 catches for 823 yards, but only three touchdowns. By the end of the year, he looked slow, disinterested and ready to retire. I was pretty surprised when he decided to come back, and I imagine his time is running out. And considering what I saw last year, I don’t know how effective he’s going to be in this offense.

I do feel solid about the rest of that unit, though. Last year’s first-rounder Xavier Worthy proved himself as a very effective receiver, but maybe not a WR1. Rashee Rice will have that covered, but coming off an ACL tear and facing a potentially lengthy suspension, Worthy will have to step into that rule. Hollywood Brown is also a solid option and Juju Smith-Schuster is still around, but I’m keeping my eyes on fourth-round pick Jalen Royals from Utah State. He’s not the quickest or twitchiest, but he’s a very smooth player who could emerge as a starter if/when Rice misses time.

Super Bowl statpad of the century. (h/t Bleacher Report)

Where this offense really improved was along the line thanks to two simple moves. The first was signing Jaylon Moore, who was a skilled backup tackle in San Francisco and could find his way into the starting lineup since Jawaan Taylor is a penalty machine. The second and far more impactful one was drafting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons in the first round — more on that later, though. They did trade standout guard Joe Thuney to the Bears, but GM Brett Veach doesn’t make a move like that for no reason. They clearly like last year’s second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia, and Trey Smith is a star at RG. Combine those two with All-Pro Creed Humphrey at center, and they should be fine on the interior.

Defensively, this is essentially the same unit, just with some more young depth. 10 of the 11 starters were on the team last year, with the only notable loss being safety Justin Reid, who’s repalced by last year’s fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks. Tershawn Wharton’s replacement, Omar Norman-Lott, was taken in the second round this year. Other notable picks include DE Ashton Gillotte, LB Jeffrey Bassa and CB Nohl Williams, all of whom should find their way into meaningful snaps this season. In any case, as long as Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal and Trent McDuffie are suited up and being coached by Steve Spagnuolo, this defense will continue to be a strength.

X-Factor: WR Rashee Rice’s Suspension

After a high-speed hit-and-run back in March which led to him turning himself into the police and pleading guilty to two third-degree felonies, Rice is likely facing a lengthy suspension this season. The only two questions are when it’ll kick in, and how long it’ll be for. His hearing is scheduled for Sept. 30, so he can likely play in the first four games of the season. Then it’s a matter of how much time he’ll miss. There have been reports of four- or even eight-game suspensions, each of which would be very detrimental to this offense. It’s weird to think of the situation this way, but a lot of this year’s offensive success will hinge on his availability. We saw how much worse they were when he was out last year. But I will say that, above all else, his punishment should be a deserved one.

Team MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes

Pretty self-explanatory. Regardless of the ups and downs, Mahomes is the hand that guides this ship and keeps it steady. Most quarterbacks would fold under the ebbs and flows that the Chiefs have faced, but he is not most quarterbacks. He’s the most talented player we’ve ever seen, and that’s not going to change. It would be awesome to see him go back to being the Mahomes of old, but truthfully, he doesn’t need to be. The death-by-a-thousand-papercuts version is just as effective. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls after trading Tyreek Hill was proof of that. More than anything, I’m interested to see how he comes out after taking the beating of all beatings in Super Bowl LIX. You can either let it get to you and have it bog you down, or spark a flame to get back on top. I’m fully expecting the latter.

Breakout Candidate: LT Josh Simmons

I was going to put Xavier Worthy here, but let’s be honest: he has already broken out. Though last season wasn’t the flashiest for him, he was money in the playoffs and statpadded his way to a big Super Bowl statline. We know he’s legit. So, I’m rolling with first-round pick Josh Simmons. If not for an ACL tear in 2024, Simmons could’ve been the first tackle off the board, which is showing in camp as he’s emerged as a young stud to hold down the blindside. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he develops into one of the best tackles in the league in the next two or three years. So, it seems like Mahomes finally has his LT of the future. That’ll go a long way.

Record Prediction: 15-2

They’re still the Chiefs, folks. Even with an improved AFC West, a roster that’s getting older, some off-the-field distractions and the fact that they’re coming off an all-time embarrassment, this is still the cream of the crop in the NFL. I expect them to lose to Buffalo — since the Bills can only beat them in the regular season — and Denver on either side of the bye, but handle the rest of the tough matchups on the schedule as they always seem to. They’ll keep winning close games. People will keep complaining about them and the referees and the NFL at large. They will once again be the 1-seed in the AFC, they will play in their eighth straight conference championship game, and they’ll probably go back to the Super Bowl for the fourth straight year and sixth time in seven years. Because they are the Chiefs. And — unfortunate as it may be for some — they are inevitable.

Next up: Baltimore Ravens