Cover photo taken from AP Photo.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
The wheel has finally taken us to the AFC — and to one of its most fascinating, polarizing teams in the Bengals. And as much as I’d love to do a deep dive into everything going on in Cincinnati, I don’t really need to. You know what there is to know.
The skinny is this: Joe Burrow is amazing. Ja’Marr Chase might be the best receiver in the league. Tee Higgins is probably the best WR2 alongside him. The offensive line isn’t great. And the defense can’t stop a single gosh darn nosebleed.
Burrow probably would have won MVP last year if his defense was anything resembling competent, having the third ever season with over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns with less than 10 interceptions. The other two quarterbacks who accomplished that feat — Tom Brady in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 — each took home the award and went a combined 30-1 in the regular season. The 2024 Bengals went 9-8.
And they had to struggle to get there. After once again starting the season looking like they were in training camp with an 0-3 start, Cincy had to climb out of 4-8 hole to stay in the playoff race. They were able to do that, winning their final five games, but it wasn’t enough, inexcusably missing the playoffs for the second year in a row.
You can point fingers at anyone but Burrow, Chase — who won the receiving triple crown — and Higgins. Though the Bengals had the second-highest dropback success rate in the league, the offensive line ranked dead last in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate while the defense sat at a measly 27th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. Trey Hendrickson should be absolved from blame as well, considering he ranked second among all edge rushers in win rate while racking up 17.5 sacks for the second season in a row.
But apparently the Bengals front office disagrees. While fully content to pay Chase and Higgins a combined — and deserved — $70 million per year for the next several seasons, Cincy has completely neglected to play ball with Hendrickson, who’s being paid pennies on the dollar compared to the other pass rushers in his class. While Myles Garrett, TJ Watt and Maxx Crosby have each been rewarded with over $30 million AAV deals, Trey is set to make $15.8 million this season before becoming a free agent. It’s obviously in his and the team’s best interest to pay him like he deserves to be, but here we are on August 8, and there’s still no deal.
It’s impossible to make it make sense. This defense has been so abysmal that they are defying logic; the Bengals lost four games last year in which they scored 30 or more, the most in NFL history. It’s a unit that has held generational QB and WR play back from even getting to the playoffs, let alone back to the Super Bowl. But no, let’s not pay the best player we have on that side of the ball and risk somehow being even worse than we were a year ago, even if we’ve replaced Lou Anarumo with Al Golden at DC. And don’t even get me started on the Shemar Stewart drama from this offseason.
It’s not just Hendrickson. Go look at the Bengals’ defensive depth chart and find me a single player worth recognizing in this preview. BJ Hill is the only one I’d hear out considering the entire second level of the defense is filled with players who are clearly out of their element. But this team made no moves of note to bolster that side of the ball, choosing instead to continue investing in the offense. Cincy better hope that draft picks Stewart, Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter turn into elite defenders, because they’re otherwise hopeless.
So, it seems like the Bengals are content to have another season of losing games 41-38 and 35-31 while watching other teams with QBs on Burrow’s level aspire to win the Super Bowl. Remember after 2021 and 2022 when we thought this organization was finally free from incompetence and ready to cash in on having generational talent on offense? Those were the days.
X-Factor: The Whole Defense
I can keep going on and on about this side of the ball, but I won’t. I’ll put a button on it with this — this Bengals team can only go as far as this defense doesn’t prevent them from going. That sounds like word jumble, but what I’m trying to say is that this unit will hold this team back no matter what. It’s just a matter of how much they do so. If they can keep teams to 24 points instead of 28 or 30 instead of 35, Burrow and company might be able to do the rest and get this team to 10 or 11 wins. I’d love to believe that’s going to happen. But I need to see it to believe it. And I don’t have high hopes.
Team MVP: QB Joe Burrow
I love Joe Burrow. He’s truly a delight to watch, and it’s a shame that we haven’t seen him in a playoff game in nearly three years. When healthy, he’s arguably the best QB in the entire league — I certainly think that’s true from a pocket perspective. From the pocket, nobody is on his level. It’s the closest thing to Tom Brady I’ve seen in this new generation of quarterbacks. And his deep ball is simply untouchable, delivering the highest percentage of catchable balls on throws over 20 yards in the league. There’s no doubt about how Burrow will perform as long as he’s on the field and Chase and Higgins are lining up on the outside. League MVP is certainly back on the table this year, but with how his defense is set to perform, no amount of individual success is going to be enough. Reminds me of another legendary No. 9 I grew up watching who won a championship in Louisiana.
Breakout Candidate: RB Chase Brown
You can make the argument that Chase Brown already broke out with his awesome sophomore campaign last year, but the casual NFL fan probably still doesn’t know who he is. I think that’ll change this year. Coming off a season with over 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage, Brown is primed for another season as a Swiss army knife out of the Bengals backfield. He’s reliable in the passing game and has some real juice on the ground — enough to keep defenses honest while still having to worry about Chase and Higgins. A solid run game is paramount in this offense, and Brown has proven that he’s a worthy successor to Joe Mixon. If the new additions to Cincy’s offensive line prove to be true upgrades, then Brown should have his first 1,000-yard rushing season and perhaps cement himself as a top-10 back in football.
Record Prediction: 10-7
I hate to continue beating the deceased horse, but 10 or 11 wins feels like Cincy’s ceiling considering their defense. The schedule is hard, don’t get me wrong, but a better D would mean more wins sheerly based on the Bengals’ offensive output. This team won’t be able to stop the likes of Minnesota, Denver, Buffalo, Baltimore or even Green Bay. Heck, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers might mess around and beat them once or twice. If Cincinnati can flip some of those into wins, the division title might be within reach. If not, anything but a playoff berth is unacceptable. And if the Bengals are once again on the outside looking in, then it’s time for a massive, massive change.
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