The Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.
Cover photo taken from PFF.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re sticking in the AFC West, where the Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.
No, I’m not exaggerating. And I’ll tell you why.
The Broncos have done everything right since moving on from Russell Wilson. While it felt like that trade and contract were going to bury them from years, they’ve risen from the hypothetical ashes as a literal phoenix to do everything they need to do to win football games.
In this league, you can get the QB right, then let the rest fall into place. This, however, is the alternative: a three-step equation that precedes getting a quarterback right.
Step one: hire the right coach. Denver knocked it out of the park by bringing in Sean Payton last season, who clearly had plenty of juice left after “retiring” several years ago. He just knows how to win, and he knows how to work with the quarterbacks of his choosing.
Step two: build the trenches. My God, have the Broncos done that. They were one of two teams to finish in the top-10 of pass block (1st) and rush (2nd) win rate as well as run block (1st) and stop (8th) win rate. The other was the Super Bowl champion Eagles.
Step three: Build a championship defense. I’d like to think that this unit that ranked 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate, 1st in dropback EPA and 2nd in rush success rate fits the bill. That’s what happens when you have the defensive player of the year in Patrick Surtain II — who has clearly emerged as the league’s best DB. But it’s more than that. Edge rusher Zach Allen had the third-best pass rush win rate in the league last year while DT DJ Jones was second in the NFL among tackles in run stop win rate. Nik Bonitto has blossomed into one of the league’s brightest young talents at linebacker. Now, he has Dre Greenlaw alongside him with Talanoa Hufanga patrolling the defensive backfield and first-round pick Jahdae Barron locking down the opposite boundary of Surtain. I mean, good lord.
So, all of that elite roster-building by GM George Paton allowed them to tie it all together with the franchise QB of their choosing. And at first, I wasn’t sure about the choice. But Bo Nix has proven his worth after being picked 12th overall a year ago. That being said… I don’t think he’s that good yet.
Nix definitely finished the year way stronger than he started it, which goes a long way. In September, he clearly still had the training wheels on — a little odd for a five-year college starter — and the speed of the pros seemed to rattle him. But, by December, he was vastly improved, finishing the year with 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
What’s his ceiling? (h/t PFF)
I usually hesitate to call guys “system quarterbacks,” but it just felt like Nix was a small cog in a larger system than the one that drove the bus. He was just 19th in EPA+CPOE and 22nd in success rate while the offense ranked 16th in EPA/play. That’s a whole lotta mid. I don’t know if he has what it takes to elevate the guys around him, and I worry that what we saw last year was his ceiling as a pro; after all, he was only taken where he was because the Broncos had no other choice.
Here’s the good news: in the case that I’m right, Denver is still going to be fine. Nix and Payton have a perfect marriage and I think he’s good enough within the confines of this system (especially with that offensive line) to put them in a position to contend in the AFC. Him not being an elite quarterback is fine. Teams like the Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers prove that you don’t need crazy good QB play when the rest of the roster is as ridiculously talented as it is.
X-Factor: The Pass-Catchers
It would certainly help Bo Nix if this wide receiver and tight end corps develops into a better one. Yes, Courtland Sutton has been a great player for a long time and got a well-deserved extension this offseason. But after that, there’s some potential left to be reached considering no other player had more than 503 receiving yards — less than half of Sutton’s total — last year. I think guys like Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin could turn into truly elite deep threats in the slot, and this year’s third-rounder Pat Bryant has the frame and skillset to turn into a really nice complement to Sutton. Plus, Evan Engram could turn into a reliable security blanket at tight end considering how many targets he saw in Jacksonville. All of that would go a long way in helping Nix and elevating this offense to be better than the frankly mediocre one they were a year ago.
Team MVP: The Offensive Line
Best starting five in the league. (h/t Getty Images)
I could’ve gone a number of ways here. I really wanted to give it to Patrick Surtain, but sometimes, you gotta show love to the hog mollies.
The incredibly high level of play that this OL had a year ago is astounding. By the numbers, this might’ve been the best offensive line I’ve ever seen and was one of the biggest reasons why Bo Nix was such a success in his rookie season. Garrett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz and Mike McGlinchey are by far the best starting five in the league. I already mentioned how this OL was first in both pass block and run block win rate in 2024, so I’m just going to leave these here for you to look at:
Garrett Bolles: 7th in PBWR among OT, ranked 5th in pass blocking grade among OT by PFF
Ben Powers: 5th in PBWR among IOL, 1st in RBWR among IOL
Luke Wattenberg: 2nd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 2nd in pass blocking grade among centers by PFF
Quinn Meinerz: 3rd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 3rd-highest overall guard by PFF (6th in pass blocking, 3rd in run blocking), voted First Team All-Pro
Mike McGlinchey: 6th in PBWR among OT
I rest my case.
Breakout Candidate: RB R.J. Harvey
I held off talking about Harvey for this long, so let’s get into it. A solid and consistent run game is what was missing from this offense last year. Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime were a mediocre committee at best, hence why Williams and Estime are now gone. JK Dobbins was brought in to be a steady vet in the backfield, but the real guy to watch is the second-round pick from UCF.
Harvey was an absolute stud in college with nearly 3,000 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground in his final two seasons. Those are ridiculous numbers. He might be smaller in size, but he’s got the burst and quickness to make up for it. More than anything, I have a feeling that he’s going to emerge as a security blanket for Nix in the passing game, turning into a Bucky Irving of sorts by catching a ton of checkdowns and making his money after the catch. In any case, I think he’ll be the starting tailback in no time sheerly by having the highest upside of anyone in that backfield.
Record Prediction: 11-6
I have pretty high hopes for this team. I think they should be a playoff team fairly easily despite the rest of this division being a gauntlet and tough games against Washington, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Houston and Green Bay. The offensive infrastructure and defensive dominance will be enough to get to double digit wins and a Wild Card spot. I just think the lack of elite QB play will prevent them from winning the division. Plus, as I’ve been saying with these AFC West teams, I won’t believe that the Chiefs can be dethroned until I see it. But I’m a massive fan of this roster, and I’m excited to see if they can build off last year’s success and be better this fall.
Even with a very talented roster, the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.
Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
Our second dip into the AFC West brings us out to Los Angeles, where the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.
I want to believe in this franchise. Truly, I do. Jim Harbaugh is an elite head coach. You guys know how much I love Justin Herbert. By all means, this is one of the best HC-QB duos in the league. And the rest of the roster is pretty good to boot. I just don’t know that it’ll ever gel and result in truly contending in a stacked AFC, particularly with the rest of the West vastly improving.
Last year could’ve been the year. They were well-balanced and kept the ball out of harm’s way, finishing 4th in turnover differential. The offense was 12th in EPA/play while the defense was 5th and led the league in scoring. Herbert was good, but not great, finishing 13th in EPA+CPOE and failing to reach 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career (in a full season). And while he finished with just three interceptions in the regular season, we all know how the playoffs went: a four-interception disasterclass in Houston leading to another playoff exit, leaving Herbert searching for that first postseason victory.
Disasterclass. (h/t Texans Wire)
So, regardless of how this regular season goes, the real key for this Chargers team is postseason play. The good news is that I fully expect them to get there. This roster is largely the same from a year ago with some big improvements in key areas, but there are a couple of places that I think could drag this squad down.
The first is the offensive line. Losing star LT Rashawn Slater for the season thanks to a freak injury in camp is simply brutal. It’s going to drastically effect Herbert’s protection and definitively hurt the OL’s run blocking. Last year’s first-round pick Joe Alt will slide to the left, which will be fine considering he played there in college and finished last year 4th among all tackles in pass block win rate. But, that leaves RT as a question mark, though Trey Pipkins is a capable player. I do like bringing in Mekhi Becton at guard, but the number of snaps he can play there is limited.
The second is the secondary, which wasn’t awful last year but doesn’t feel much better this year. Yes, there are decent pieces like Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart and Alohi Gilman, and Derwin James is a superstar at safety. But these corners feel very susceptible to me, and they didn’t make any moves in free agency to make me feel better about that. In fact, they made it worse by signing Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson.
The front seven should be fine despite losing Poona Ford, but they also lack the proverbial oomph needed to make me feel confident. But, DC Jesse Minter has proven himself to make it work regardless of the circumstance, and I don’t see why he can’t coach this unit to punch above its weight and finish as one of the best in the league again.
The good news is on offense. The RB room is getting a massive lift with the addition of first-round pick Omarion Hampton from North Carolina, who this coaching staff keeps raving about. He’s a bruiser who’s hard to bring down but has plenty of speed to his game, which could give the Chargers the spark they didn’t have out of the backfield a year ago. They also added Najee Harris in free agency, which was a move I didn’t really like in the moment and like a lot less now that he’s dealing with eye problems after a firework incident on Independence Day.
And I truly think this might be the best set of receivers that Herbert has ever had. Ladd McConkey is a bonafide stud at WR, coming off a massive rookie season with 82 catches, 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. Tre Harris is a second-round pick with a ton of upside that’ll see the field right away. Even fifth-rounder KeAndre Lambert-Smith is turning heads in the preseason. If Quentin Johnston can build off a much-improved 2024 — big ask, I know — then this could be a better passing offense than we realize.
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
Without Slater, this offensive line will have to collectively pick up the slack to keep Herbert upright and get this run game going. I outlined why I think that can happen, but in the event that it doesn’t, this offense could fall apart in a jiffy. I think Herbert can still be an effective quarterback and facilitator the way Harbaugh wants him to be even if the line play isn’t as good, but that’s a problem no QB ever wants to have. And if Hampton and the RBs can’t get it going, it’ll only bring the offense down more. This defense is good, but it’s not built to overcome that many problems. They’re meant to complement the death-by-a-thousand-papercuts offense.
Team MVP: QB Justin Herbert
He’s still really good. I promise. (h/t Athlon Sports)
For the millionth year in a row, it feels like Herbert is the most overhated quarterback in the league. Look, I know neither of his playoff games have gone very well. I think one of those is entirely his fault while the other one isn’t really. In any case, I know what my eyes tell me: Justin Herbert is a cyborg. This dude was built in a lab to play quarterback. At 6-foot-6, 236 pounds with an arm that can make any throw and honestly underrated mobility, he makes plays every week that make me sit up in my chair, even with Harbaugh and company dialing him back a little bit. He has the skillset and the tape that can go band for band with any other QB in football. For my money, he’s still the 6th best quarterback in the league. But, playoff performance is imperative. I need to see him finally show up and play a complete game in the postseason and just win. So many playoff wins and losses are decided by the quarterback, and right now, his playoff reputation is one of being a loser. Until that narrative is dispelled, he’s not going to get the national respect I think he deserves.
Breakout Candidate: RB Omarion Hampton
Jim Harbaugh has made his money with elite running back play. Toby Gerhart, Frank Gore, Karan Higdon, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards. Now, he gets Omarian Hampton to mess around with. He may lack the quickness of some of the better backs in the league, but once he gets going downhill, he’s hard to stop. I do have concerns about whether that deficiency of burst will hold him back from being a great back at the next level, but if he can find it, there’s no stopping this kid. He was the second RB off the board for a reason. You don’t want to be seeing him in the open field.
Record Prediction: 12-5
If I was redoing my record predictions today (full disclosure, I completed it before I started this series, which may have been a mistake considering how much things change in the preseason), I’d probably have this team closer to 10 or 11 wins. But, I’ll keep them at 12 for now because of how much I trust this head coach and quarterback. If the defense can keep up the level of play that they had last year and the offense gets that little bit of juice out of the newcomers, this should be a very similar, if not better season in LA. But, like I said, the real test will come in the postseason. They’ll likely have to go on the road in Wild Card weekend, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess.
The Vikings enter the season with sky-high hopes thanks to completely overachieving in 2024. But, with a complete unknown under center, this year could go any which way in Minnesota.
Cover photo taken from Chron.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re finally back in the NFC North, where the Vikings enter the season with sky-high hopes despite a complete unknown under center thanks to completely overachieving in 2024.
This is a really perplexing set of circumstances. After a 14-3 season, you’d think a team would have high hopes for the following season, especially when they retain so much talent. But that doesn’t feel like the case in Minnesota, because 2024 felt more like a total flash in the pan rather than something that can be sustained. However, I think if all goes well, this squad can once again compete for a division title.
Just to touch on last year, because it was crazy, I honestly thought the Vikings were going to compete for a Super Bowl. We all know how it ended, with one-year rental QB Sam Darnold crashing out in the final game of the regular season to miss out on the NFC North title and 1-seed before putting on a worthy encore in the Wild Card game. He lost himself a solid chunk of change in the process. But, for those magical first 16 games, this team was a machine.
Multi-million-dollar crashout. (h/t Los Angeles Times)
The offense wasn’t mind-boggling at 14th in EPA/play, but they were 5th in dropback success rate thanks to Darnold’s play and HC Kevin O’Connell’s brilliance. Sam ranked 12th in EPA+CPOE and 14th in QBR but fifth in passing yards and touchdowns with 4,319 and 35, respectively. Justin Jefferson did Jettas things with a monstrous 1,533-yard, 10-touchdown campaign, tying a career-high in scores. And the offensive line really held up despite a season-ending injury sustained by star LT Christian Darrisaw as they finished 2nd in pass block win rate.
But really, the story of that team was its defense, which DC Brian Flores turned into an absolutely fearsome one. 2nd in EPA/play, 5th in success rate, 1st in rush EPA, 5th in scoring, 1st in interceptions and 1st in total takeaways. I mean, good lord. Oh, and the defensive line was 4th in both pass rush and run stop win rate, with star LB Jonathan Greenard ranking 10th in the former and 4th in the latter.
You wanna know the crazy part heading into this year? I think this roster genuinely got better across the board. The defensive interior got a boost with the additions of veterans Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. The offensive line got a giant boost with a completely remade guard-center-guard combo of first-round pick Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly and Will Fries. Consider Darrisaw at LT and Brian O’Neill — who ranked 3rd among all tackles in pass block win rate — at RT and you might have the best offensive line in the league. The secondary losing Cam Bynum and Stephon Gilmore is a little spooky, but I think Flores can make it work with anyone.
The only real question surrounding the Vikings in 2025 is the biggest possible one: the quarterback. Sam Darnold likely would’ve been the starter last year, but he got full control of the ship because Minnesota’s first-round selection JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. Now, Darnold is out and JJ is in to try and become the franchise QB up north. And I honestly have no idea how to feel about it.
It’s anyone’s guess at this point. (h/t Chron)
I wasn’t super high on JJ coming out of Michigan; his talent and intangibles were clearly impressive, but he was never anything more than a game-manager and lacked in the type of film that makes your ears perk up. But, I thought he could be a successful NFL QB in the right system. Well, this is the right system. O’Connell can make things work with me at QB, and behind this new offensive line with the type of weapons they have, I think McCarthy will be just fine.
There might be some growing pains in what’s essentially his rookie season, but the coaching, infrastructure, talent and his mental fortitude are strong enough for this team to be plenty good once again.
X-Factor: QB JJ McCarthy
Honestly, just read those last few grafs. I know I always say the team goes as the QB goes, but it really feels that way in this case. While I don’t doubt that O’Connell can get blood from a stone at quarterback, it’s on JJ to lead this team to the heights they reached last season. If he’s truly the guy, then there’s no reason why this team can’t contend in the NFC like they did last season. But, if it’s a rocky year under center, I don’t know that they can, even with how great the defense is going to be.
Team MVP: WR Justin Jefferson
He’s pretty good. (h/t PFF)
After Ja’Marr Chase won the triple crown last year, a lot of people slotted him as their No. 1 receiver in the league. I’m still not so sure it’s not Jettas. Now, I know whoever has Chase at 1 has Jefferson at 2, and many will have them at 1a and 1b, but I’m still giving the edge to Justin. There are very few receivers I’ve watched that make the game look as easy as he does. It’s just so natural, so free-flowing, so effortless. His route-running is poetry in motion and his ability at the catch point is jaw-dropping. I have no idea what to expect in terms of his production with McCarthy, but I don’t doubt that Jettas is in for another massive season to continue his otherworldly career thus far.
Breakout Candidate: WR Tai Felton
With star WR2 Jordan Addison facing a three-game suspension to open the season, the options beside Jefferson should be Jalen Nailor and this year’s third-round pick out of Maryland, Tai Felton. But, with Nailor suffering a hand injury in camp, Felton could very well be the second option. And with the attention that Jefferson commands, that’ll bust the door wide open for Felton to make a massive impact in the first few weeks of the season. Despite some subpar size, he has clear twitch and speed, running a 4.37 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine in February. If he gets the ball in space, watch out. And defenses will need to respect him, because he can take the top off the secondary. It’ll be interesting to see how he fits into this offense, and how JJ McCarthy tries to get him the ball. I have high hopes for the kid, and I’m rooting for him as a DMV guy.
Record Prediction: 8-9
This one was hard. I simply don’t know how to feel about this offense, and I don’t know what to expect out of JJ McCarthy. What if he gets hurt again? What if he doesn’t live up to the hype? What if he’s straight up bad? I should preface this by saying I don’t think those things will happen. I think JJ will be a fine player — maybe nothing Earth-shattering but definitely a franchise guy. I just think this year will be one where the offense has to feel itself out as they adjust. Plus, this schedule sure as hell ain’t easy; I actually like Minnesota to start out undefeated in the first three or four weeks, but then the going gets plenty tough. This is closer to their floor than their ceiling. I just don’t know if I can confidently say that they’ll reach that higher mark right now.
Arguably the busiest offseason in the NFL has many believing that the Steelers are finally back to being Super Bowl contenders. I, however, am not convinced.
Cover photo taken from Bleacher Report.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re rounding out the AFC North in the land of the Yinzers, where arguably the busiest offseason in the NFL has many believing that the Steelers are finally back to being Super Bowl contenders. I, however, am not convinced.
If nothing else, the Steelers are consistent. Consistently mediocre? Sure. This proud franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since Barack Obama was president and has repeatedly crashed out of the postseason after hot regular season starts. Sure, they haven’t had a losing season in Mike Tomlin’s tenure, but that’s not enough anymore. It’s the standard, but at some point, a new standard has to be set.
You have to imagine that’s what the crux of this summer was in Pittsburgh: pushing whatever chips they have to the center of the table and seeing if they can get away with bluffing.
It feels crazy to think about the Steelers being 10-3 last year, but they won a ton of games in typical Steelers fashion en route to losing their last four regular season games and being blown out of the water in the Wild Card at Baltimore. This team was just pure mid a year ago, with an offense that ranked 20th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate and 27th in passing yards. The defense is obviously the strong suit, having ranked 9th in EPA/play and 8th in points per game, but that’s still nothing mind-boggling. They didn’t have consistent quarterback play from Justin Fields or Russell Wilson, they couldn’t run the ball effectively enough to balance that out and the defense simply fell apart down the stretch.
So, to fix the quarterback play, they bring in 41-year old Aaron Rodgers. Genius idea, guys!
ARod is obviously a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL history, but let’s not kid ourselves here. This is the last dance. He can still sling the rock, but he’s just a fraction of the player he once was. With the Jets last year, he was 22nd in EPA+CPOE and 25th in QBR. Russell Wilson was 18th and 22nd, respectively. So, I guess this is a downgrade for Pittsburgh? Combine that with all of his off-the-field nonsense — though, if anyone can steer him in the right direction, it’s his good friend Mike Tomlin — and I just don’t like this move.
It just looks wrong, doesn’t it? (h/t Bleacher Report)
To lift up their new signal-caller, the Steelers traded the walking emotional rollercoaster in George Pickens to Dallas and acquired the polarizing DK Metcalf from Seattle, then signed him to a very generous four-year, $132 million contract extension. I’m not going to dive into how I feel about that deal, but just know that I don’t feel many positive emotions. Regardless, it means that Rodgers will have the vertical threat that he wants in this offense, even if OC Arthur Smith doesn’t want to attack downfield very much. Pittsburgh also moved off of Najee Harris and drafted star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to be his replacement. That is a move I feel good about; Johnson was a stud in college and brings a unique blend of contact balance and explosiveness to a run game that desperately needs it.
Another productive pass-catcher was added in TE Jonnu Smith, which is a solid move to be sure, but the story of that move was the other players that were involved. The Steelers sent standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back to Miami in exchange for DB Jalen Ramsey, who is exiting his prime, but can still produce on his good days. Honestly, that swap feels like a wash. Bringing in Chuck Clark and Juan Thornhill in free agency can help soften the blow of losing Minkah, and adding Ramsey to a corner room which already gained Darius Slay means that even if that group lacks talent, they’ll have experience. Plus, Joey Porter Jr. has emerged as a guy who can line up across from an opposing WR1.
In any case, the strength of this team will be its front seven, as is always the case. Last year, they were third in pass rush win rate, but just 17th in run stop win rate. The usual suspects are still here: TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward, Patrick Queen. And Payton Wilson quietly had a very good rookie year at LB. That makes for an effective pass rush. But the Steelers should be better against the run with the selection of DT Derrick Harmon in the first round; not to mention, Keeanu Benton has really come on strong to help lock down the interior as well.
X-Factor: QB Aaron Rodgers
Always feels a little cheap to put the quarterback as the X-factor, but this one is pretty obvious, right? We know the defense is going to be one of the 10 best in the league. We know the special teams will be great. I have a feeling the offensive line will hold up. The weapons don’t really matter as much as the QB does. And when that QB is Aaron Rodgers, and all of the eyes are on you every weekend, it’s that much more important. I honestly don’t know how much more Rodgers has in the tank. He flashed some really good stuff last year, but was more inconsistent than anything else and posted the worst passer rating of his career — that’s a feat he’s now done twice in his last two full seasons of starting. He’s clearly on the decline, and this offense clearly isn’t good enough to lift him up. So, who’s doing the heavy lifting on that side of the ball? Anyone? Not really. He’ll be good enough to keep things afloat, but I genuinely think this might’ve been a situational downgrade from Russ, especially in Arthur Smith’s offense.
Team MVP: T.J. Watt
Best defensive player on the planet? (h/t KGET)
Pretty obvious choice here. Watt has emerged as one of the league’s most consistently dominant players, wrecking games week in and week out with his remarkable athleticism and playmaking ability. He’s the heart and soul of this football team, and maybe even the city at large. He may have had a quiet 2024, ranking 12th in PRWR with 11 sacks, six forced fumbles and no interceptions. But that being a “down year” just goes to show how elite he is. Now that he’s received his well-deserved three-year, $123 million contract extension, I fully expect him to get back to his dominant ways and make another push for Defensive Player of the Year, so long as he stays on the field.
Breakout Candidate: WR Roman Wilson
All the reports concerning last year’s third-round wide receiver out of Steelers camp have been overwhelmingly positive. Whether it’s Wilson’s rapport with Rodgers growing or simply his strong development, it appears the former Michigan man is in for a big 2025 now that he’s being inserted into the starting lineup. At 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, size has always been a concern, but he could feasibly be a Randall Cobb-type player and emerge as a security blanket underneath for Rodgers while Metcalf is too busy running in a straight line downfield. That’s where he made his money with JJ McCarthy when they were both Wolverines, after all.
Record Prediction: 9-8
It’s like taking candy from a baby at this point, isn’t it? Steelers make a push to finish above .500, everyone lauds Mike Tomlin for once again avoiding a losing record, but it’s not enough to make anything close to a push for a Super Bowl. I just don’t have enough faith in this offense to produce anything close to what’s necessary for them to make legitimate noise in the AFC. I think this is a second-place team at best, and I have them as the first team out of the playoffs while the division rival Bengals snatch that last spot in the final week of the season. Then, Rodgers retires and spends the rest of his life doing whatever the hell he wants, and the Steelers remain a direction-less franchise holding onto six Super Bowls and another winning record as the playoff win drought reaches a decade.
The Ravens are once again among the favorites to win the Super Bowl after another year of falling short of expectations. But things will be different this time… right?
Cover photo taken from KGET.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
The wheel is mercifully starting to heat up. We’re headed up I-95 to Baltimore, where the Ravens are once again among the favorites to win the Super Bowl after another year of falling short of expectations. But things will be different this time… right?
I, for one, will not be drinking the black, purple and gold Kool-Aid that so many others do year after year, but I can recognize that this Ravens team is set up to do some real damage and should — should!!! — contend for a title this winter. It’s fairly easy to see why.
Last year, this offense was simply a machine. Not only balanced, but remarkably effective in every aspect: first in EPA/play, second in success rate, first in dropback EPA, second in rush EPA, first in total yards, first in rushing, third in scoring. That’s just insane. With an offensive line that ranked third in both pass block and run block win rates, the floodgates were opened for this Ravens offense to be arguably the best in the league.
Obviously, there were two main catalysts that allowed that to happen: Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Lamar was simply brilliant last year and would’ve had my MVP vote if I possessed one, putting together what I considered to be his best season as a passer with 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions, the fourth-highest single-season passer rating ever at 119.6, the top QBR the second-highest EPA+CPOE in the league. Oh, and he also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns. My God. He deserved MVP far more last year than he did in 2023, but at least he got that one to balance out last year.
Then there’s Derrick Henry, whose acquisition instantly turned this Baltimore offense from feared to nightmarish. Combining him with Lamar almost felt illegal, and the results showed: a monstrous 1,921-yard, 16-touchdown campaign. Any and all questions of the vet slowing down or facing a wall at the end of his career were swiftly vanquished. Now, my only question is how long he can keep it up for. Because at this rate, he’ll be going strong for several more years.
Seriously, who allowed this? (h/t WMAR)
The offense figures to be largely the same in 2025, though versatile lineman Patrick Mekari is now gone. Still, with Lamar and Henry in the backfield and reliable targets Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman out wide, this should once again be one of the league’s most feared and productive units this season.
Baltimore’s defense, however, is a bit of a different story — one that’s more Jekyll and Hyde. They were all over the place a year ago: 11th in EPA/play, third in success rate and rush EPA plus first in rushing yards, but 31st in passing yards. The secondary can be pointed towards as a clear weak spot, but really, I think it was the lack of pass rush that did the unit in. They were a drab 29th in pass rush win rate and lacked a clear blue-chip edge-rushing threat. The secondary’s shortcomings were just the cherry on top, even though there are studs back there like Nate Wiggins and Kyle Hamilton.
As such, the Ravens attacked that side of the ball quite hard this summer. First, through the draft: standout Georgia safety Malaki Starks was their first-round selection, then they chose to ignore some off-the-field concerns and draft Marshall’s star pass rusher Mike Green in the second, who’s undoubtedly a hell of a football player. Later selections like Teddye Buchanan and Aeneas Peebles figure to be solid depth pieces as well, and both have the athletic profile to make an impact when their numbers are called this year. Then, about two months later, they chose to scoop up free agent DB Jaire Alexander, hoping to squeeze some more juice out of him after the Packers deemed themselves done with the former All-Pro. His health will always be a concern, and I don’t know what to expect out of him when he’s on the field (sounds like another veteran corner I know about an hour south of Baltimore). But, if he can stay on the field and play up to a solid level, this secondary will be so much better because of it. Besides, anyone is an upgrade over Brandon Stephens, right Ravens fans?
X-Factor: Playoff Lamar
Not again. (h/t Syracuse.com)
There is no denying that Lamar Jackson is one of the greatest regular season performers we’ve ever seen. There is also no denying that he’s just a different and worse player in the postseason. I don’t know if it’s the pressure of the moment, the increased defensive intensity or even the gosh darn cold, but we’ve now seen two terrible performances in a row in massive playoff games where the Ravens were favored. And this obviously goes way back to 2019 when Baltimore went one-and-done as the 1-seed in his first MVP season.
In eight career playoff games, Lamar is 3-5 with 10 passing touchdowns to 13 turnovers (seven interceptions, six lost fumbles) and a passer rating south of 85. That’s over 17 points lower than his career regular season rating of 102.0. It’s honestly unfathomable.
People love to blame last year’s loss on Mark Andrews’ fumble and/or dropped two-point conversion, but it’s Jackson who had two horrendous first-half turnovers to put the Ravens in a hole to begin with. Despite his late-game heroics, he was to blame for the deficit. Again, if you take it back a year, people point fingers at Zay Flowers for the AFC title game loss to Kansas City when Lamar was straight up putrid with an awful interception into triple coverage and an overall scared and skiddish performance.
I’m not trying to audit Lamar’s whole playoff career here. I’m just saying that this is what needs to change for the Ravens to finally get over the hump and get to a Super Bowl with him under center. Quarterback play is the clear differentiator in today’s NFL, especially in the playoffs. You’ve got to play up to a standard to win games in January. Lamar is yet to reach that standard.
Team MVP: Lamar Jackson
For the sake of being brief, I won’t keep on keeping on about Lamar. But I do wanna take this space to say something. If you’re still doubting Lamar Jackson’s ability as a passer or as a “quarterback,” I’ve got no more words for you. The dude has proven time and time again that he can only get better and better, particularly from the pocket. Yes, so much of his heroics comes from extending plays for seemingly minutes on end before finding his receivers downfield. But from the pocket, he’s gotten substantially better as well. Just because it’s not flashy and showing up in your Twitter feed doesn’t mean it’s not happening. And as long as he continues to improve from the pocket while still being Lamar freaking Jackson from outside it, he’ll be a top-5 player in football for years to come.
Breakout Candidate: CB Nate Wiggins
I had mild concerns with Wiggins in last year’s draft because of his size; he’s long, but he’s wiry, and I still have Emmanuel Forbes PTSD. Well, it turns out Wiggins is actually just a stud. He’s always around the ball, using his length to be a PBU machine and always disrupt plays in the passing game. He’s also shockingly effective against the run for a DB of his size and frame. The Ravens don’t draft you in the first round for no reason, so I guess it’s not a huge shock that he’s developing into a stud. I fully expect Wiggins to turn into a top-10 corner in the league in the next couple of years, and the thought of that combined with the duo of Kyle Hamilton and Malaki Starks at safety is frankly terrifying.
Record Prediction: 12-5
This year’s schedule feels harder than last year’s. I think playing the 2025 NFC North will be tougher than the 2024 NFC East, I think the Steelers could pose more of a threat, and I think playing a one-off against the Rams is tougher than last year’s at Tampa Bay. Plus, having to go to Buffalo, Kansas City and Green Bay is just brutal — those are three of your five losses right there. Still, I have the Ravens winning the AFC North pretty comfortably and getting to the playoffs as the 3-seed behind the Chiefs and Bills, meaning they’ll once again have to go to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. I think I know how that’ll go.
Kansas City has been brought back to Earth after being denied an unprecedented three-peat thanks to an all-time shellacking in the Super Bowl. But, they’re still the Chiefs, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. And that’s enough.
Cover photo taken from FOX Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re finally taking our talents to the AFC West, where Kansas City has been brought back to Earth after being denied an unprecedented three-peat thanks to an all-time shellacking in the Super Bowl. But, they’re still the Chiefs, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. And that’s enough.
Say what you will about the Chiefs last year; “They got lucky!” or “The games were rigged!” or even “They didn’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl!” Nonsense. Put aside your hatred towards this franchise and simply recognize that this is how dynasties operate. It’s how the Patriots were for the 21st century before Mahomes rolled along.
That being said, last year was particularly peculiar for Kansas City. They set an NFL record going 10-0 in one-score games with many of them coming in ridiculous fashion. Games against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Las Vegas and others easily could’ve gone the other way, but the Chiefs still wound up at 15-1 in games that mattered en route to another trip to the Super Bowl — their third straight and fifth in six years.
But, between the close games and nothing crazy on either side of the ball, they didn’t really have the makings of a 15-win team. They were 9th in EPA/play on offense and 15th on defense, though it always felt like the defense was better. Similarly, the offensive line was eighth in pass block win rate and seventh in run block win rate despite feeling like the unit was a clear weak spot. Meanwhile, the defensive line was 19th in pass rush win rate and 21st in run stop win rate.
All the while, Mahomes had the worst season of his career with his lowest yardage and touchdown output ever. He was just 11th in EPA+CPOE and eighth in QBR while ranking 30th in ADOT above just Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa. In very anti-Mahomes fashion, he completed just 39.5% of passes that traveled 15 or more yards in the air, throwing four touchdowns and six interceptions on those passes. Losing Rashee Rice to injury early in the season didn’t help with that, but it’s still a pretty absurd figure considering the usual identity of this offense.
2024 was not very Mahomes-like. (h/t FOX Sports)
Still, the Chiefs did what they had to do in the playoffs, once again beating little brother Buffalo to get the chance to complete the league’s first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. We all know what happened next. I don’t want to rehash it. Now, it’s a matter of what comes next. Getting crushed in Super Bowl LV didn’t bury this franchise, because they’re pretty un-buri-able (hooray for words). But getting back to the mountaintop won’t be easy.
Travis Kelce is old. Borderline washed. Last year was by far the worst of his illustrious career, which is really saying something considering he had 97 catches for 823 yards, but only three touchdowns. By the end of the year, he looked slow, disinterested and ready to retire. I was pretty surprised when he decided to come back, and I imagine his time is running out. And considering what I saw last year, I don’t know how effective he’s going to be in this offense.
I do feel solid about the rest of that unit, though. Last year’s first-rounder Xavier Worthy proved himself as a very effective receiver, but maybe not a WR1. Rashee Rice will have that covered, but coming off an ACL tear and facing a potentially lengthy suspension, Worthy will have to step into that rule. Hollywood Brown is also a solid option and Juju Smith-Schuster is still around, but I’m keeping my eyes on fourth-round pick Jalen Royals from Utah State. He’s not the quickest or twitchiest, but he’s a very smooth player who could emerge as a starter if/when Rice misses time.
Super Bowl statpad of the century. (h/t Bleacher Report)
Where this offense really improved was along the line thanks to two simple moves. The first was signing Jaylon Moore, who was a skilled backup tackle in San Francisco and could find his way into the starting lineup since Jawaan Taylor is a penalty machine. The second and far more impactful one was drafting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons in the first round — more on that later, though. They did trade standout guard Joe Thuney to the Bears, but GM Brett Veach doesn’t make a move like that for no reason. They clearly like last year’s second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia, and Trey Smith is a star at RG. Combine those two with All-Pro Creed Humphrey at center, and they should be fine on the interior.
Defensively, this is essentially the same unit, just with some more young depth. 10 of the 11 starters were on the team last year, with the only notable loss being safety Justin Reid, who’s repalced by last year’s fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks. Tershawn Wharton’s replacement, Omar Norman-Lott, was taken in the second round this year. Other notable picks include DE Ashton Gillotte, LB Jeffrey Bassa and CB Nohl Williams, all of whom should find their way into meaningful snaps this season. In any case, as long as Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal and Trent McDuffie are suited up and being coached by Steve Spagnuolo, this defense will continue to be a strength.
X-Factor: WR Rashee Rice’s Suspension
After a high-speed hit-and-run back in March which led to him turning himself into the police and pleading guilty to two third-degree felonies, Rice is likely facing a lengthy suspension this season. The only two questions are when it’ll kick in, and how long it’ll be for. His hearing is scheduled for Sept. 30, so he can likely play in the first four games of the season. Then it’s a matter of how much time he’ll miss. There have been reports of four- or even eight-game suspensions, each of which would be very detrimental to this offense. It’s weird to think of the situation this way, but a lot of this year’s offensive success will hinge on his availability. We saw how much worse they were when he was out last year. But I will say that, above all else, his punishment should be a deserved one.
Team MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes
Pretty self-explanatory. Regardless of the ups and downs, Mahomes is the hand that guides this ship and keeps it steady. Most quarterbacks would fold under the ebbs and flows that the Chiefs have faced, but he is not most quarterbacks. He’s the most talented player we’ve ever seen, and that’s not going to change. It would be awesome to see him go back to being the Mahomes of old, but truthfully, he doesn’t need to be. The death-by-a-thousand-papercuts version is just as effective. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls after trading Tyreek Hill was proof of that. More than anything, I’m interested to see how he comes out after taking the beating of all beatings in Super Bowl LIX. You can either let it get to you and have it bog you down, or spark a flame to get back on top. I’m fully expecting the latter.
Breakout Candidate: LT Josh Simmons
I was going to put Xavier Worthy here, but let’s be honest: he has already broken out. Though last season wasn’t the flashiest for him, he was money in the playoffs and statpadded his way to a big Super Bowl statline. We know he’s legit. So, I’m rolling with first-round pick Josh Simmons. If not for an ACL tear in 2024, Simmons could’ve been the first tackle off the board, which is showing in camp as he’s emerged as a young stud to hold down the blindside. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he develops into one of the best tackles in the league in the next two or three years. So, it seems like Mahomes finally has his LT of the future. That’ll go a long way.
Record Prediction: 15-2
They’re still the Chiefs, folks. Even with an improved AFC West, a roster that’s getting older, some off-the-field distractions and the fact that they’re coming off an all-time embarrassment, this is still the cream of the crop in the NFL. I expect them to lose to Buffalo — since the Bills can only beat them in the regular season — and Denver on either side of the bye, but handle the rest of the tough matchups on the schedule as they always seem to. They’ll keep winning close games. People will keep complaining about them and the referees and the NFL at large. They will once again be the 1-seed in the AFC, they will play in their eighth straight conference championship game, and they’ll probably go back to the Super Bowl for the fourth straight year and sixth time in seven years. Because they are the Chiefs. And — unfortunate as it may be for some — they are inevitable.
With a retooled defense and new weapons on offense, the Panthers are hoping to turn a strong finish to 2024 into a breakout 2025 in a make-or-break year for Bryce Young.
Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
One thing I’ve learned over the last three weeks is that the wheel likes to stick with the same divisions. We’ve already wrapped up the AFC South, NFC West and NFC East, we’re almost done with the AFC East, but haven’t even touched the AFC West and barely dipped into the NFC North.
All this to say, we’re sticking in the NFC South today where the Carolina Panthers are hoping to turn a strong finish to 2024 into a breakout 2025 in a make-or-break year for Bryce Young.
Last year was more of a tale of three thirds than two halves for the Panthers. The first third dealt with Bryce Young being benched after just two games, with Andy Dalton coming in and winning a game, then getting hurt to bring Bryce back in. The middle third saw some more struggles for the 2023 No. 1 pick, but gradual improvement as close wins over bad teams like the Saints and Giants turned into to close losses against great teams like the Chiefs and Eagles.
Then, the final third, which was really more like the final three weeks: the offense’s coming out party. In those final three games, the Panthers went 2-1 behind an emboldened Bryce Young, who had a passer rating of at least 100 in each of those games and was 7th among all QBs in EPA+CPOE in that stretch. For reference, he only eclipsed a 100-plus rating twice in his career until then. He was a scoring machine with 10 total touchdowns and zero turnovers, leading the offense to be fifth in EPA/play in the home stretch. And it all culminated in a 5-touchdown masterpiece to close out the year with a 44-38 win in Atlanta to knock the Falcons out of the playoff race.
Now, the question is whether or not that can be sustained. Dave Canales had his fair share of ups and downs in his first year as head coach, but maybe that was to be expected with the state of this roster. On the year, the offense was 23rd in EPA/play with an OL that ranked 30th in pass block win rate. Before finishing the year red-hot, Young was pretty bad with eight touchdowns to nine interceptions and a bottom-five EPA+CPOE among 35 qualified QBs. The run game was a bright spot, ranking 11th in rush EPA thanks to Chuba Hubbard’s career year with 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns.
But more than anything on offense, it was the other side of the ball that completely sullied 2024 in Carolina. This defense was dead last in total and rushing yards allowed, points allowed, EPA/play, success rate, rush EPA and run stop win rate while ranking 31st in dropback EPA and pass rush win rate. Let that sink in. All things considered, this was pretty comfortably the worst defense in football. You’re not going to win many games with a unit that bad, regardless of what’s happening on offense.
As such, bolstering the defense was the main focus of this offseason. Several big signings were made to fix the front seven and aid star DT Derrick Brown with Tershawn Wharton, Patrick Jones, Bobby Brown and Christian Rozeboom coming over in free agency while the team spent draft capital on Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen and Cam Jackson. The secondary — which already has a blue-chip superstar in Jaycee Horn — was improved with additions like Tre’von Moehrig in free agency and Lathan Ransom in the draft. DC Ejiro Evero better hope that he fixes that side of the ball, or it’ll be his last season in Charlotte.
That’s not to say the offense didn’t also see some improvement this summer. Two major moves stand out: selecting WR Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall and signing Rico Dowdle to create one of the sneaker RB duos in football alongside Hubbard. McMillan is an absolute stud — a 6-foot-4 monster with a massive catch radius and aggression at the catch point with some sneaky speed to boot. He’s the kind of player to bring the downfield juice to this offense that’s been missing since DJ Moore was sent to Chicago. Adding him to a WR corps which already has last year’s first-rounder Xavier Legette and steady veteran Adam Thielen means that Young will have his fair share of weapons to dish it out to.
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
This is my main concern with the Panthers this season. I obviously have my reservations about the defense, but at least there were moves made to improve all over there. Carolina is running back the same offensive line they had a year ago — the one which made Bryce Young consistently run for his life. It didn’t show up in the sack total, but as I mentioned earlier, this unit was third-worst in football in pass block win rate. Perhaps the bigger X-factor here is the passing game at large, as Bryce needs this to be the year he puts it all together. But his ability to do so is largely reliant on this line being able to consistently keep him up and block as effectively in the pass game as they do in the run game.
Team MVP: QB Bryce Young
Caption. (h/t Athlon Sports)
No other option, right? Well, if he can turn his last three weeks of 2024 into the majority of his 2025, there’s no doubt. I’ve always been a fan of Bryce, even through the size concerns. The start to last year was extremely unsettling — his numbers were awful and his tape was worse. But now, it’s all starting to come together. In a second year with Dave Canales and with the new additions to his offense, the pieces are in place for Bryce to finally emerge as a top-15 quarterback in football. That would be a massive success considering how the first two years of his career have gone.
Breakout Candidate: WR Xavier Legette
Legette wasn’t drafted in the first round for no reason. He’s got a unique blend of size and speed, being 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds but still running a sub-4.4 40. He’s a yards after catch machine that makes his money in the quick game, turning shorter passes into longer runs. But, in last year’s offense, there wasn’t a lot of opportunity for that. The Panthers wanted Legette to be a downfield threat for whoever was lining up under center, but that’s not really his game. Now that McMillan has been brought in to truly fill that role, Legette should be able to thrive by doing what he does best. After no standout games or highlights a year ago, I expect XL to have a number of each in this revitalized passing game.
Record Prediction: 6-11
I really wanted to be nicer, but to be honest, it’s kind of hard to find the wins on this schedule. It’s not the most difficult, but there are a number of difficult road trips, and playing the NFC West is not going to be easy, not to mention games against Buffalo and Green Bay. On top of that, I need to see this defense play better before I believe that they’re going to. Yes, the moves they made this offseason are promising, but there wasn’t a single one that made me think things are going to magically get better. I do think this offense will be a very fun one to watch, but that won’t mean anything if the other side of the ball keeps getting gashed. But, if Bryce Young puts together the season we think he could have and the defense turns into a competent one, a record closer to .500 or even above it is within reach.
In New Orleans, the cap chickens have come home to roost, and the Saints are squarely in the financial hell that they’ve been staring at for years. Because of that, the future in the Big Easy is bleak at best.
Cover photo taken from NBC News.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
After a solid run of good teams, the wheel has dragged us back down the cellar. In New Orleans, the cap chickens have come home to roost, and the Saints are squarely in the financial hell that they’ve been staring at for years. Because of that, the future in the Big Easy is bleak at best.
Remember when the 2024 Saints were 2-0 with two blowout wins and we all thought, “Huh, maybe this thing could work!” Yeah, me neither. Here we are on the cusp of the ’25 season, and this team is a bonafide disaster.
Seven straight losses after that hot start turned into a 5-12 finish with New Orleans being bogged down by key injury after key injury and dealing with abysmal coaching from Dennis Allen, who was mercifully fired at the end of the season. Between Derek Carr hurting himself on a ridiculous attempt to play the hero — which wound up being his final play in the NFL — Chris Olave suffering two more bad concussions and countless other misfortunes, the Saints put together their worst season since 2005 — their last season before Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived.
I wish I knew what he was thinking. (h/t KGET)
Just to quickly run through the numbers, because they’re bad: the offense was 25th in EPA/play — including 30th in dropback EPA — and 28th in success rate with the offensive line ranking 30th in both pass and run block win rates. The defense was marginally better, sitting at 19th in EPA/play, but they were 30th in rush EPA with a DL that ranked 29th in pass rush win rate and 19th against the run. Nothing stands out from last year’s Saints team because nothing can. It was just horrid all around.
When Carr missed time, the keys were primarily handed to Spencer Rattler. And to put it plainly, the dude just isn’t an NFL quarterback. Among 40 QBs with at least 250 snaps last season, Rattler was tied for last in EPA+CPOE. The only other player on his level of awful? Anthony Richardson. Woof.
When it wasn’t Rattler, it was Jake Haener, who was so much worse that I don’t even want to dive into his numbers.
So, New Orleans had no QB, a horrible offensive line, a decimated group of receivers, a nonexistent pass rush and a Swiss cheese secondary. But surely through the draft and free agency, they got better, right?
Wrong! Because the Saints have damn near $90 million in dead cap thanks to their financial shenanigans of the last decade. As I said, the bill has come due. You can’t name me a big-name free agency move the Saints made because it doesn’t exist. Hell, I’d bet you can’t name me a move they made at all. I mean, even I couldn’t remember anything before doing research for this article. They’re simply in purgatory.
For the sake of mentioning those moves, I’ll say that the secondary has been remade with Isaac Yiadom, Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon to join Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor. Notice I said remade and not upgraded. Davon Godchaux was added to beef up the interior of the defensive line. That’s fine, I guess. On offense, they brought back Brandin Cooks for some reason. And they literally just traded for… Devaughn Vele? Whatever helps new head coach Kellen Moore sleep at night.
Really, the story of this offseason in New Orleans was the draft. For the second year in a row, the Saints took a tackle in the first round, plucking Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. to hold down the blind side after slotting last year’s top pick Tailese Fuaga at right tackle. Most of the rest of the draft was spent picking productive defenders like LB Danny Stutsman, S Jonas Sanker, DT Vernon Broughton and LB Fadil Diggs.
But one pick stood above the rest: Tyler Shough. The former Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville quarterback who spent six years in college and is older than Trey freaking Lance. Though he was not a great college QB, Shough undoubtedly possesses the so-called intangibles that would translate to the pros: size, a live arm, some solid accuracy. But he also has what is known as the “bozo gene,” or what I mentioned last week when talking about Cam Ward, which is thinking you can make every throw when you know you can make any throw.
Shough’s tape has some high highs and some awful lows, and it’s no surprise that he’s not on track to beat out Rattler for the starting job. You’d think a dude that spent six years in college would be pro-ready. Guess not.
“Are those my only two options?” – Jonah Hill as Peter Brand in Moneyball (2010). (h/t Bleacher Report)
It remains to be seen whether or not that’s a disaster of a pick. But I’d have higher hopes for a guy who started college before mask mandates were a thing.
In any case, quarterback certainly doesn’t feel like an improved area for the Saints. Neither does the defensive line. Or the linebackers. Or the secondary. Or the receivers. The only clear upgrade was at left tackle, but the interior of the line is atrocious. So, even if the pass blocking is slightly better, the run blocking won’t be. And the pass blocking might not matter considering there isn’t a capable QB on the roster.
Holy hell. This is even worse than it seems.
X-Factor: Hopes And Prayers
They’re gonna need them. There’s nothing that can save the Saints in 2025. Seriously. In all my years of watching football, I can’t remember many teams entering a season so hopeless and devoid of talent. Maybe Kellen Moore is a competent first-time head coach and maybe Shough develops into a stud and maybe the defense finds a way to play actual NFL football. But those are all either uncertainties or pipe dreams. I don’t see a single tangible thing that can turn the Saints from the abysmal team they are into anything resembling a playoff team. Except for a talk with the man upstairs.
Team MVP: RB Alvin Kamara
I haven’t talked about Kamara this whole time because I was being overwhelmingly negative. But Alvin Kamara isn’t a negative. He’s really the only bright spot the Saints have. It’s like that meme of the guy pointing towards the sky saying, “If no one got me, [blank] got me.” You can always count on the franchise legend to have a productive season with over 1,000 yards and close to 10 touchdowns from scrimmage. He’s certainly at the tail end of his career, but he’s still putting up some very solid numbers and will be a safety blanket for whoever lines up under center in black and gold this season. It’s just a shame that he has to deal with that after the epic highs of his first few years in New Orleans.
Breakout Candidate: QB Tyler Shough
I mean, I had to pick someone. I don’t have much faith in Shough as a pro, but as I said before, the tools are definitely there for something to come to fruition. He’s 6-foot-5 with some solid mobility and a rocket arm. Surely that can be molded into a starting NFL quarterback. Again, I don’t think he’ll start the season over Rattler, but it’s definitely only a matter of time before he sees the field. From that point on, it’s anyone’s guess.
Record Prediction: 2-15
The Saints will be the worst team in the NFL this season and finish with the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, where they will undoubtedly take a quarterback. Who that’ll be remains to be seen, but I imagine it’s either a kid who already plays in the state or one with family ties to the franchise. If you’re curious, the two wins I have on this schedule are against the Giants and Jets, because why not. Gotta give them something to cheer about. But the rest of the NFC South, the AFC East and the whole of the NFC West will run straight through these Saints and send them straight to the gutter. And, considering the circumstances, it’s a long, long way back up to the surface from there.
The Eagles soared to a dominant Super Bowl title last year behind one of the most well-rounded, stacked rosters we’ve ever seen. Now, it’s a matter of sustaining success in Philadelphia.
Cover photo taken from KRON4.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We round out the NFC East with the defending Super Bowl champions (sigh) as the Eagles look to run it back after one of the more dominant seasons we’ve seen in several years.
I was always dreading this one, but I’m not evil. I’ll give a team flowers when they deserve it.
Philadelphia was incredible last year. They were a more-than-deserving champion, which they unequivocally showed in a 40-22 shellacking of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl — one of the worst beatdowns we’ve ever witnessed. Their defense was elite, their offense was a well-oiled machine and it all culminated in the franchise’s second ring in the last eight seasons. I have my own qualms with the quarterback and head coach, but it’s hard to keep complaining when the results are what they are.
It was all thanks to a remarkable offseason. After the embarrassing end to 2023, GM Howie Roseman cleaned house, brought in fantastic replacements and rebuilt a decimated defense in a matter of months. Hiring Kellen Moore as OC and Vic Fangio at DC, drafting studs like Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean and Jalyx Hunt. Signing key veterans like Mekhi Becton and Zack Baun to bolster the offensive line and front seven.
But one newcomer stood out above the rest: Saquon Barkley. We all knew how talented of a back he was in New York, but injuries and bad teams seemed to derail what could’ve been a truly generational career. Well, turns out when you go to a well-run organization with a killer offensive line, your fortunes can change. Barkley cashed in a massive contract and Offensive Player of the Year honors after a ridiculous 2,005-yard, 13-touchdown season and truly elevated this team to be the contender they were.
The missing piece. (h/t KRON4)
The Eagles offense has been great since Jalen Hurts emerged as the player he is now, but the star RB proved to be the missing piece to get them over the top, especially in a tumultuous passing season. Hurts was up and down in the regular season and frankly awful in his first two playoff games, but in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, he was spectacular. It was a microcosm of the season; Philly was 14th in dropback success rate while ranking first in rushing EPA.
It’s not like the passing offense was abysmal or anything. That would be hard to accomplish with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith out wide, who combined for nearly 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. And of course, the offensive line was the key to it all, ranking eighth in pass block win rate and third in run block win rate. Kellen Moore dipped out to take the HC job in New Orleans, so we’ll see what new OC Kevin Patullo has cooked up for this offense.
But the Eagles don’t win the Super Bowl without the resurgent defense, which found new life under Fangio and it’s mix of new vets and rookies. In the EPA/play department, the Birds went from 29th to 3rd, culminating in a dominant playoff run in which they forced the most turnovers of any team ever in a single postseason. Jalen Carter has emerged as one of the league’s best tackles, Nolan Smith has developed into a star pass rusher, Baun was a DPOY candidate at linebacker and the duo of Mitchell and DeJean fortified the secondary as a lockdown one.
Ouch. (h/t Yahoo Sports)
They were as well-rounded as a team could be; in fact, only Philadelphia and Denver ranked in the top-10 in pass block/rush win rate and run block/stop win rate. Dominant in the trenches, suffocating on the backend and deadly with their skill position group.
The only question: can they sustain it for another season? A lot of key pieces are gone: Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay and Mekhi Becton all left in free agency while guys like Landon Dickerson and Nakobe Dean are dealing with injuries. Most of the key stars remain in place, but it might take a minute to figure things out with some newer moving parts.
The good news is that those new parts are pretty damn good, too. The strategy of investing in a young defense continued as Philly drafted studs Jihaad Campbell and Andrew Mukuba in the first two rounds as well as potentially valuable depth pieces like Ty Robinson, Mac McWilliams, Antwaun Powell-Ryland and yet another Georgia Bulldog in Smael Mondon. To be honest, as long as Vic Fangio is coaching the defense, I don’t really have any doubts about them.
This is a team that’s built to sustain the success it had a year ago. There are superstars and All-Pros everywhere you look. It’s hard to say anyone in the league is currently better than Philadelphia, and even if you were to argue a team like Baltimore or Buffalo, I’d unfortunately have to point to the ring.
Yeah, this sucks.
X-Factor: Defensive Newcomers
I already touched on it, but there’s more key turnover on defense than offense. A lot of guys are being thrust into starting roles: Hunt replaces Sweat, Jordan Davis replaces Milton Williams, Kelee Ringo repalces Darius Slay and Sydney Brown replaces CJ Gardner-Johnson. If the young guns are up to the test, then this unit shouldn’t see too much of a falloff. But, again, it might take a little bit of time to figure it out.
Team MVP: LT Jordan Mailata/RT Lane Johnson
Unstoppable forces. Immovable objects. (h/t Philadelphia Eagles)
Not what you were expecting? Maybe it should’ve been. Mailata and Johnson form perhaps the best tackle duo I’ve ever seen and fortify a top-5 offensive line in football with complete and utter dominance on the ends of the line. Just to put things in perspective: Johnson was fifth in pass block win rate and ranked 6th in pass blocking among tackles by PFF while Mailata was 14th and 2nd, respectively. That’s simply ridiculous. The interior of this offensive line is also crazy good, so I don’t want to discount guys like Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens, but it’s because of these two that Jalen Hurts rarely gets touched and Saquon Barkley gets to run wild. They are the straw that stirs the drink.
Breakout Candidate: LB Jalyx Hunt
I was having trouble picking between Hunt and Jordan Davis for this spot, but I went with the 2023 third-round pick because of what I’ve seen from him every time he’s thrust into action: immediate impact. I have no doubt that Davis is going to be a stud alongside his college teammate Jalen Carter on the interior of the defensive line (good luck running on these guys), but I think Hunt is going to emerge as the team’s best pass rusher. He had as many sacks in the playoffs as he did in the regular season, and with a starting role, I expect that number to skyrocket towards double digits in 2025.
Record Prediction: 13-4
I expect this regular season to go a lot like 2024: a 2-2 start with a loss at Tampa Bay before rattling off 10 wins in a row, losing in Week 16 at Washington, but still winning the division. This time, though, I have the Eagles getting the 1-seed in the NFC (and likely getting back to the Super Bowl, but we’ll save that for later). The infrastructure is too sound on offense, and the defense is still remarkably talented. Yes, I have my own set of concerns with the quarterback, and the offense could take a step back with a new play-caller, but the Eagles are simply a self-sustaining machine. They should sleepwalk back to the playoffs, and assuming the Commanders don’t go nuclear (God, please prove me wrong), they should become the NFC East’s first repeat champion in two decades.
Last season was more than just a success for the Commanders. It was a rebirth; a burgundy and gold phoenix rising from Snyder ashes. With a unicorn at QB and an upgraded roster, can they replicate 2024’s magic?
Cover photo taken from Washington Commanders.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
Now, the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Strap in folks, this one is going to be a doozy.
2024 was the best year of my life. I really didn’t think it would be. I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t want Dan Quinn as head coach. For the first half of the offseason, I wanted Drake Maye at No. 2, not Jayden Daniels. I didn’t understand the moves to bring in Zach Ertz, Bobby Wagner, Austin Ekeler and the other vets. I was wary of hiring Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator. I thought the offensive line could be the worst in the league. I thought the roster might’ve been the worst in the league, too. I had extremely low expectations for the season, projecting us to finish with five or six wins.
In a shocking turn of events, I was wrong. Very, very wrong.
Last season turned into more than just a successful campaign. It was a rebirth. A burgundy and gold phoenix rising from Snyder ashes. A rejuvenation of a fanbase starved for success for three decades. An exorcism of Dan demons that seemed primed to haunt the franchise forever.
Turned tragedy to triumph. (h/t Commanders)
The Commanders — who entered the season with the second-lowest win total projection in the league — had the most magical year the league has seen in years, surging to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship on the back of a 24-year old kid who just might be the best thing since sliced bread.
I want to take my time with this one, so let’s start at the beginning with the last time we spoke before I came back a couple weeks ago. Complaining about the same old stuff to start the season after a lifeless opening loss in Tampa, insisting that we’d drop the home opener to the Giants. Then, radio silence. Again, I regret that, because I would’ve loved being able to document last year on a weekly basis. So let’s make up for lost time.
Week 2 win over New York. Jayden did his thing to be sure, even if the offense couldn’t punch it in the endzone. No matter. A key Malik Nabers drop and seven field goals will get it done.
Week 3 in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. Jayden’s 91.3% completion and the dagger of the year — or so we thought — to Terry McLaurin. The breakout.
Coming out party. (h/t PFF)
Week 4 in Arizona. The highest scoring output in nearly a decade behind another surgical performance from the quarterback.
Week 5 against Cleveland. Jayden’s best performance on the ground with a number of jaw-dropping plays in the air.
Week 6 in Baltimore. A battle on the big stage. Team fell short, but the QB sure as hell didn’t.
Week 7 against Carolina (I was there!). Game was over before it started, but an injury to Jayden on the offense’s first play — what was ironically his season-long run — soured it. Especially ahead of…
Week 8 against Chicago (I was there, too!). No. 1 vs. No. 2. Caleb vs. Jayden. Even with the rib injury, Daniels gave it a go. Offense couldn’t get out of its own way. Williams couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn until the waning moments, which saw the Bears take a three-point lead with 23 seconds left. We all know what happened next.
Hail Noah. Still can’t believe it happened. (h/t NBC News)
Week 9 in New York. Complete the ho-hum sweep of the Giants.
Then, the three-game skid. First, to the Steelers in a game we had no business losing — blame Benjamin St. Juste, Johnny Newton or the refs. Then, the Eagles on Thursday Night Football: a game we were always going to lose on a short week being desperate for a bye with a beat-up QB. And finally, the wackiest, stupidest game I’ve ever seen against Dallas, culminating in a miracle to rival the Hail Mary followed by a special teams debacle to ruin it all.
At 7-5, questions loomed all over as the team was crawling to the bye, but not before getting right by blowing out the Titans. After the off week, it was all systems go.
Week 15 in New Orleans. A game that had no business being as close as it was, nearly leading to a perfect storm for the Saints to come back and steal it. Alas, a win.
Week 16 against the Eagles. Five turnovers from the offense. No matter. Five touchdowns from Jayden — topped off by a nine-yard game winner with six seconds left — to fuel a furious comeback will play.
Week 17 against the Falcons on Sunday Night Football (of course I had to go). In the most electric regular season atmosphere Landover had seen in almost exactly 12 years, a marvelous second half on offense combined with a laughable finish to regulation put the ball in No. 5’s hands in overtime with a win putting Washington in the playoffs. And, amidst MVP chants from the whole DMV, there was never a doubt how that would end.
Almost had him. (h/t AP News)
Then, the playoffs. In search of the franchise’s first postseason win in 19 years — which had come in the exact same building — Jayden’s poise and precision put his team in a position to win the game. A key third-down conversion on an improbable run set up the doink heard around the District to finally get the monkey off the back and end the drought.
Onto Detroit. Playing with house money in the electric, hostile home of the 1-seed Lions, who were coming off their best regular season in franchise history powered by an unstoppable, supercharged offense. Just another day at the office for Jayden Daniels. His excellence and five massive turnovers forced by the defense combine for a blowout win over the Super Bowl favorite in their own house to advance to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. It was the first time in franchise history that Washington won multiple road playoff games in the same season. Let that sink in.
What up doe. (h/t Bleacher Report)
We know what happened in Philly. We don’t need to talk about it. The Eagles were awesome last year and deserved to win the title, but what happened that day still stings. What hurts the most is knowing that the loss wasn’t on Jayden. It was the countless fumbles and idiotic penalties that buried a team that may have been punching above their weight.
Regardless, last season was a blessing and I still pinch myself when I think about it. I do the same when I remember that Jayden Daniels is my quarterback. We deserve this. After everything we’ve been through. We deserved 2024, and we deserve what’s coming next.
So, onto 2025. Despite all the success from last season, it was pretty clear where this team needed to improve: offensive line, running back, defensive line, secondary. Kinda nuts they won 12 games in the regular season and two in the ‘offs with that agenda.
Honestly, the offensive line held its own. They finished ninth in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate despite the run game completely fizzling out in the last month or so. Because of Jayden — who finished fourth in QBR and EPA — elevating the unit, the offense wound up finishing fourth in EPA/play and fifth in success rate. Still, it can’t hurt to add beef in the trenches to protect your unicorn at QB. Trading for superstar LT Laremy Tunsil — who graded out as PFF’s fourth-best pass-blocking tackle in 2024 — and drafting RT Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round will do just that. All of a sudden, a line of Tunsil, Brandon Coleman, Tyler Biadasz, Sam Cosmi (when he returns from injury) and Conerly doesn’t sound too bad. Plus, it should mean less chips on defensive ends from receivers, tight ends and backs, which we saw so much of last season. That means the downfield passing attack develops faster, giving Jayden more time to surgically pick apart defenses. Sounds like a winning formula to me.
It was pretty clear that Washington needed to give Daniels some more weapons on offense outside of Terry McLaurin. While they could’ve made some big free agent splashes like Tee Higgins, they opted to trade a fifth-round pick to San Francisco for Deebo Samuel, hoping to get some more juice out of him after a down year with the 49ers. Subject to many a fat joke, I think it’s clear he still has some gas left in the tank. In an offense that’ll use him the way he wants to be used, he should have a solid season. But we’re probably never seeing 2021 Deebo again. With the less-than-impactful departures of Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, the Commanders will hope to see some real development from guys like Luke McCaffrey and fourth-round pick Jaylin Lane to round out the WR room.
Running back was a question because of how last season ended. Brian Robinson hit a wall and was a complete non-factor down the stretch, and while Austin Ekeler was reliable as always in spurts, he can’t be a bell-cow RB1. Perhaps seventh-round steal Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt can help with that. More on that later.
The defense wound up finishing 22nd in EPA/play, so there was plenty of room for improvement across the board. I’d say the defensive line out-produced its expectation last season, particularly in the pass rush department. Washington finished seventh in pass rush win rate, largely thanks to one-year rental Dante Fowler turning in a pretty nice season off the end and Frankie Luvu proving to be a very effective blitzing linebacker. But, the lack of a blue-chip edge rusher caught up to them eventually. Plus, the run defense simply never materialized, finishing 23rd in run stop win rate and being absolutely gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley in the postseason.
As such, seemingly every move on defense this offseason was about getting bigger in the middle and stopping the run. Javon Kinlaw was given a pretty solid deal to replace Jonathan Allen at tackle. Future Hall of Fame veteran Von Miller comes in on a one-year, incentive-laden deal to provide the situational juice needed off the edge, and Deatrich Wise was brought in from New England to provide depth.
The secondary entered last year in a laughable spot with Emmanuel Forbes and Benjamin St. Juste holding down the boundaries, but got better as the year went on with the emergence of second-round pick Mike Sainristil and the trade for steady vet Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans. When healthy, Lattimore was solid in spurts. But, staying healthy was a problem, and even when he was on the field, he had a propensity to get bullied by physical receivers like AJ Brown and Mike Evans. Second-round rookie Trey Amos should be able to help with that on the boundary, allowing Sainristil to dominate his natural spot at nickel with newcomer Jonathan Jones providing some solid depth. Plus, Will Harris replaces Jeremy Chinn at free safety, which is an upgrade if you ask me considering Harris’ versatility and better ball skills. With the beefier front, Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu holding down the middle and an upgraded secondary, the defense should be much better in 2025.
So, check all the boxes on upgrades across the board. Nothing crazy flashy, but it didn’t need to be. It’s about putting yourself in the best position to win with your ridiculous quarterback still being on his rookie contract before he inevitably becomes the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. These key signings are elementary moves to do so, as is extending your star WR1… right?
Probably smart to keep these two together. (h/t @Commanders/X)
So we would think. But here we are: Aug. 20, and still no Terry extension. Everyone wants to point fingers in every direction, but it’s honestly a simple calculus. It’s a business. McLaurin is a staple of the franchise — a fan-favorite, a star who was with us through the mud and is now soaring. He finally got the QB he deserved, and it showed last year with 82 catches, 1,096 and a career-high 13 touchdowns. So, where’s the impasse? Shouldn’t this team want to lock him up no questions asked?
Well, Adam Peters is the type of GM to ask questions. Questions like, “How old are you again?” and “You really think you’re worth $30 million a year?” Unfortunately, those are pretty pertinent inquiries. Yes, we all love Terry more than anything else. He’s going to be in our Ring of Fame one day, and I hope he’s the last player to ever wear No. 17 in burgundy and gold. But he is going to be 30 next month, and he is asking for a pretty penny. Why these camps just can’t lock themselves in a room and agree on a $27-28 million deal boggles my mind, and Terry having to request a trade because negotiations are going so poorly is spooky. But I know in my heart of hearts that a deal will come soon enough, and No. 17 will be out there for Week 1. Lord knows we need it.
X-Factor: The Defensive Line
If this DL can simply be better in the run game while continuing to get similar production from its pass rushers, this defense will skyrocket. This team will have to get through Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, maybe even Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey to get where they want to go this year. This line will have to step up to the challenge and do what they couldn’t in 2024. I do think an improved secondary will help the pass rush by giving those guys more time to get to the quarterback. But pass rush honestly isn’t my concern. It’s stopping No. 26 in midnight green. It’s the only major question mark I have on the whole roster. And it’s truly the one thing that could hold the team back once again.
Team MVP: QB Jayden Daniels
The savior. (h/t Commanders)
Forget team MVP. League MVP is within reach for Jayden Daniels in 2025.
This kid is the best thing to happen to Washington since George himself. Despite being overshadowed by Caleb Williams for the whole draft process and offseason, it was JD that wound up being the generational talent of the class while the kid in Chicago looked like a fish out of water for 17 games.
69% completion — a rookie record. 3,568 passing yards. 25 passing touchdowns. 100.1 passer rating. Sixth in EPA+CPOE. 891 rushing yards — also a record for rookie QBs. Six rushing touchdowns. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. And status as a consensus top-10 quarterback in football.
But really, he’s a top-5 quarterback and clearly the best in the NFC. Don’t bother arguing with me, because I won’t listen. Jayden Daniels is everything you could want out of a franchise quarterback in the modern NFL. Pre-snap smarts. IQ at the line. Poise in the pocket. Lightning-quick release. Legolas-level accuracy. Deadly speed and an innate feel for rushing lanes to make something out of nothing. The only other QB in the league with those types of skills plays an hour up I-95.
But what Jayden has that’s truly special for someone his age is the pure ice water that flows through his veins. He’s cool as a cucumber no matter the circumstance — a true cold-blooded Terminator, regardless of situation. It’s rare for a player to be so clutch at such a young age. He has the Patrick Mahomes type of aura where he’s almost better from behind than he is with a lead. It’s unreal to watch.
It’s the embodiment of his character and work ethic. This is the kid that shows up to the facility every day at 4 a.m. to throw on the virtual reality headset and dissect defenses comprised of ones and zeroes, then replicates it on the field on Sundays. The kid who’s never too high, never too low, always thanking God and his teammates for his success. The kid who doesn’t really like the spotlight, but knows that he has the goods and deserves to be one of the faces of the league for years to come.
All of this to say that Jayden is a unicorn of unicorns. He’s the brightest young quarterback the league has seen this decade with a ceiling that might reach unknown galaxies.
One of one. (h/t Washington Commanders)
Everyone loves to bring up the potential of a “sophomore slump” because they’re lazy sensationalists who chase headlines and point out a bad 2024 season from 2023 OROY CJ Stroud as a seemingly valid piece of supporting evidence. Last I checked, Jayden’s offensive line got better while CJ’s was horrendous; plus, Stroud dealt with a ridiculous amount of injuries to his receivers and backs.
But forget that for a moment. If we’re going to run with this logic of “X happened to Player A, so X must also happen to Player B,” then let’s talk about other notable sophomore campaigns. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes had the best passing season of the last decade en route to an MVP. In 2019, Lamar Jackson won an MVP unanimously and led the Ravens to a 1-seed. In 2021, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to their first Super Bowl in decades and came this close to winning it.
But no, it’s cool. Keep bringing up CJ Stroud. Keep being lazy. It’s all good. I keep receipts. We’ll talk in six months.
Breakout Candidate: RB Bill Croskey-Merritt
Bill. (h/t Arizona Desert Swarm)
The wheel couldn’t have chosen a better time to land on the Commanders, because after playing on Monday Night Football — albeit in the preseason — people now know the name Bill Croskey-Merritt. The coaching staff, players, media and fanbase have been singing his praises ever since rookie camp as an exciting prospect that can finally bring the juice that this RB room has lacked since… Antonio Gibson’s rookie year?
Bill has a fascinating story. For starters, he goes by “Bill” because he was bald as a kid and people said he looked like Little Bill of Nickelodeon fame. So, that’s hilarious. But this is a kid who should’ve been a third- or fourth-round pick, but missed all but the opening game of last season with Arizona due to eligibility issues after transferring from New Mexico. So, he falls to Washington in the seventh, and might just be one of the best value picks of the class.
He’s got really impressive vision, a special ability to get skinny and quickly burst through a hole. He’s essentially the anti-Brian Robinson. It’s no wonder why Washington is shopping Robinson, who isn’t likely to be on the final 53-man roster. They know they have their RB1 of the future in Bill. He figures to be a massive part of this offense moving forward, which could help open up so much for the offense down the stretch if they’re able to consistently move it on the ground.
Record Prediction: 11-6
I may be me, but I’m a realist. When I think of this season, I think of a pretty simple vision: better team, worse record, potentially worse end result.
This team is undoubtedly better than the one that went to Tampa last September, and even the one that went back there in January. But they also played a last-place schedule a year ago, went 8-2 in one-score games including five consecutive wins on the final play from scrimmage and had a whopping 87% conversion rate on fourth down. As cool as it’d be to do that again, it’s not sustainable.
The schedule went from 0-to-100 with marquee matchups essentially every week, highlighted by Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Detroit, Denver, the Chargers and the Eagles twice. They play eight games in standalone windows and even more in 4 p.m. ET national windows, so the eyes of the nation will be fixated on the burgundy and gold all year long. I’d hate to let them down. But it’s just going to be tougher sledding.
I think the first couple months will be up and down. I have us at 4-4 at the midway point in the season with losses to Green Bay, the Chargers, Dallas and Kansas City. But after that Monday nighter against the Chiefs, there’s a chance to go on a run. They can beat the Seahawks, Lions, Dolphins, Broncos, Vikings and Giants consecutively to push up on the Eagles in the standings and assert themselves in the playoff race. Split with the Birds and beat Dallas at home on Christmas, and boom: another 6-seed in the playoffs, where Jayden Daniels will make his money once again.
I’d love to tell you that this team is going to win the Super Bowl. I’d love to believe that’ll happen. But winning a Super Bowl is hard. Sustained winning in general is hard. But, if all goes to plan, this should be the first time Washington has a winning season in consecutive years since 1992. What a stat.
Last year was fun. Now we need to prove that it wasn’t a flash in the pan. I haven’t been this excited for a football season in my life. I’m hoping and praying that it pays off.
As long as No. 5 is lining up under center, I know we’ve got a chance to do something incredible. And just being able to say that is enough.
Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
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