Cover photo taken from Sporting News.
Welcome to Monday Night. After 17 days, 66 games, countless incredible moments, and perhaps the most bizarre NCAA Tournament of all time, we have reached the National Championship. Tonight, the #4 UConn Huskies take on the #5 San Diego State Aztecs for the title in Houston, Texas.
I gave a detailed rundown of both teams in Saturday’s Final Four preview, so I’ll spare you all of the nitty gritty stuff here. Still, let’s take a look at each of tonight’s contestants before picking the game itself:
#4 UConn Huskies
UConn is en route to rarified air, having won each of its first five NCAA Tournament games by double digit points with a total margin of victory of +103. That is one of the most staggering figures I’ve ever been tasked with comprehending. They are the sixth team to accomplish this feat, with four of the previous five capping off their journey with a national title. Considering how the Huskies continue to play on both sides of the ball, it almost feels impossible picking them to slow down. Their Final Four performance against Miami went almost exactly how I anticipated, but I figured most of their dominance would come in the second half. Instead, they led from beginning to end with equal levels of dominance in each 20-minute period. Adama Sanogo was his usual self with 21 points and 10 boards on 9/11 shooting, including two shocking first half threes. Alex Karaban poured in a solid 8 points and 9 rebounds, and Donovan Clingan came off the bench for an effective 4 and 6. Even when Sanogo isn’t on the floor, the Huskies are able to dominate the inside with their physicality. The backcourt did its usual thing with Jordan Hawkins leading the way with 13 points. Tristen Newton led the game in assists with 8 to go along with 7 points, and Andre Jackson Jr. put Miami’s guards in a straitjacket on the perimeter. But perhaps the most underrated piece to this backcourt is Nahiem Alleyne, who is averaging 7.4 points per game off the bench. UConn has been able to use its depth to its advantage, and all they do is rip you apart and wear you down over the course of 40 minutes. If there’s any team built to counter that playstyle, perhaps it’s San Diego State.
#5 San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs are lucky to be here after winning one of the most thrilling Final Four games I’ve ever seen at the buzzer on a beautiful baseline jumper by Lamont Butler. The game-winning shot has gotten all the attention, and seemingly everyone has forgotten that SDSU was down 14 to FAU early in the second half of that game. But they got their act together on both ends of the ball to mount an impressive comeback and reach Monday night. Butler’s shot was the highlight, but Matt Bradley had the best performance on Saturday evening, leading the team in scoring (21 points), rebounding (5 boards), field goals (5/12 shooting) made, threes made (4/8 shooting), and free throws made (7/9 shooting). He was huge to bookend the game with a blistering start and a huge presence down the stretch as the Aztecs got back in it. But that’s not to discredit the other performances on the team. Jaedon LeDee had a huge 12 points off the bench, Aguek Arop poured in 9 points, and Nathan Mensah had a huge 7 and 6. The thing that plagued SDSU was the shot-making of FAU. The Owls were shooting the lights out in the first 30 or so minutes of the game, and that got the Aztecs in the double digit hole. You can never control how well the other team is going to shoot, but that was the first time in this tournament that this great defense had gotten blitzed like that. If San Diego State plays up to its defensive par and continues to get huge offensive contributions from their star guards, they have a great shot at pulling off the upset and cutting down the nets on Monday night.
Key Matchups
If you wanna beat this UConn defense, you better pray that you hit your shots. Any time a team has made a game interesting against the Huskies in this tournament, it has been because they’ve hit enough shots to go on a run and make things uncomfortable. The problem is that once Dan Hurley calls a timeout and makes an adjustment, they’re right back to dominating you on both ends of the floor. So the question becomes this: does SDSU have the shooting to make UConn uncomfortable for a full 40 minutes? And can they keep the game close enough to pull off the upset in the end? I honestly don’t know. The Final Four game against FAU was the only game that was won more by the Aztecs offense than their defense. This is by far the toughest defense they’ve faced, as UConn has dismantled two of KenPom’s top six offensive teams (Gonzaga ranked first, Miami ranked sixth) while SDSU sits all the way down at 68th, so I don’t know how likely it is that they can replicate that performance.
SDSU’s defense won’t be easy to beat either. The best defense that UConn has faced in this tournament is Arkansas, who ranks 17th in efficiency on KenPom. The Aztecs rank fourth. If they can play similar to their performances against Creighton and Alabama, San Diego State can certainly hang around in this game. But I feel like so much more pressure is on their offense to slow down the juggernaut that is the UConn offense, which is so deep and physically imposing. The Huskies offense ranks third in KenPom, and they can beat you in every which way. I don’t know if the Aztecs elite defense has what it takes to stop UConn in the paint and on the perimeter all at once for a full game. No one else has come remotely close, and while SDSU probably has the best shot on paper, it still feels too unlikely.
My Pick
Time is a flat circle. The last time that UConn made a Final Four in Houston was in 2011, where they won it all to cap off a historic run for superstar Kemba Walker. Three years later, the Final Four was in Texas once again, this time in Arlington. Once more, a Huskies guard led the team to an improbable title run; this time it was Shabazz Napier. Now, UConn is back in Houston, one win away from a third national championship in 13 years. History and momentum are on their side, and I don’t see them being stopped.
UConn 74-58 San Diego State
Monday, 9:20 PM EST, CBS
The word I keep using is dominant, but I don’t know if that even scratches the surface of how the Huskies have played in this NCAA Tournament. They have played perhaps the best basketball I have ever seen on this stage. To win in the manner that they have against the caliber of teams that they’ve played is simply astounding. It rivals that of 2018 Villanova, who I currently have as the most impressive national champions I’ve ever watched. With this win, I think UConn can take that spot from their Big East rival. I just find it too unlikely that San Diego State will be able to keep up with them on either side of the ball. I find it much more probable that their defense slows down the Huskies offense, but how long can they keep that up for? As I said on Saturday, the second half has been where UConn has done the bulk of their damage in this tournament. Even if SDSU keeps this close in the first half with their defense, it feels inevitable that the Huskies go on a huge second half barrage to run away with it. In the unlikely event that the Aztecs take this thing down to the wire, they’d be the team I trust more, considering their late-game performances in each of their last three games. But I simply don’t see the game getting to that point. I think UConn is going to impose its will one last time in every aspect of the game en route to another double-digit victory to etch themselves as one of the greatest teams in college basketball history.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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