Cover photo taken from NY Post.
Last Week: 3-3
Season Total: 170-98
Texans 23-20 Ravens 
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Screw it.
In complete honesty, I think the Ravens are going to win this game. But life is too short to not have some fun.
I’m not picking the Texans for some random or superstitious reasons though. I worry about their run defense against this vaunted Baltimore offense, but I also had that concern last week against Cleveland. All they did was make light work of the Browns all game long with an incredibly inspired defensive effort. Why can’t that happen here as well? And it goes without saying that CJ Stroud is going to do CJ Stroud things, even against a defense as good as this one. If this team made the Browns — who I thought were a Super Bowl contender — look silly for sixty minutes, they’re definitely capable of beating the 1 seed Ravens.
But it won’t be easy. Or at least, it shouldn’t be. This is a massive game for Lamar Jackson and his team. If you lose the AFC Championship game to Kansas City or Buffalo — who are two excellent teams — so be it. At least you got there. They have to get there. And I think that sort of fire will fuel them to a big performance in this game on both sides of the ball. Again, at least it should.
But with all the uncertainty surrounding this team and this quarterback in the postseason, I have to see it to believe it.
49ers 27-17 Packers 
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Death. Taxes. The 49ers beating the Packers in the playoffs.
It’s not that simple, but it is pretty simple. The Packers are playing excellent football right now, and their upset win in Dallas last week was glorious. But that’s going to be 100x harder to repeat against the best team in the NFL, especially when Kyle Shanahan absolutely owns Matt LaFleur. Is it entirely possible that Jordan Love goes crazy once again and the defense forces Brock Purdy into enough mistakes to lose the game? Of course it is. Green Bay is talented enough to make that happen. But, like I said with the Ravens, I have to see it to believe it.
I usually worry about rust with teams coming off two weeks of rest like San Francisco is, but this team feels too talented and too well-coached for something like that to happen. I think they’re going to flex their muscles to notch their first of three consecutive wins to capture that illustrious sixth championship. But we’ll cross those bridges when we get there.
Lions 24-20 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC
This game is essentially the NFC’s second-place matchup, since I don’t think either team has what it takes to go into San Francisco and win next week. But I think both of these squads has what it takes to at least get to that point.
Detroit’s win last week was one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. I’m so happy for that team, fanbase and city that deserves it so much. They proved that they’re built for this stage, and they have what it takes to do amazing things, especially at home. I expect a similar performance out of them in this one, but it’ll be another tough test. However, I don’t know if the Bucs are better on either side of the ball than the Rams were, so Detroit might have an easier time in that regard. They’ll need to have a much better second half if they want to not get too uncomfortable.
Tampa’s win last week was also euphoric for the likes of me for obvious reasons. But I have concerns of how realistic it is for them to replicate it. Don’t get me wrong, the Bucs dropped passes left and right and probably should have won by more than 23, but the Lions defense is much, much better than Philadelphia’s, and they probably won’t be slipping and sliding and missing tackles the way those Eagles embarrassingly did. I think Baker will do his thing for a bit, but just like last week, that Lions defense figures to make enough plays to keep them at arm’s length while their offense does the rest.
At the end of the day, I feel like that Week 6 matchup is a pretty good indicator that the Lions simply match up with the Bucs too well and do everything that Tampa does better. So, although this one should be closer than that game was, I still like Detroit to reach an improbable NFC Championship Game for the first time in three decades.
Chiefs 20-17 Bills 
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Well, here it is. The seemingly unavoidable matchup that we’ve seen so many times already and should continue to see for the foreseeable future.
I must admit, I’m not as excited as everyone else is for this matchup. And I think there’s a clear reason why: I don’t buy into the Bills storylines.
“Patrick Mahomes finally has to come to Buffalo!” Um, the Buffalo that he’s never lost in? “Josh Allen is playing better than any other QB right now!” The same Josh Allen that has never beaten Mahomes in the postseason, even when he had one of the greatest statistical playoff runs of all time? “Mahomes finally has to go on the road!” What, the best quarterback of all time can’t play on the road? Give me a break.
Beyond all of that, I just feel better about the Chiefs than I do about the Bills for a couple of reasons. For starters, Kansas City’s defense is remarkable. Anyone saying that the weather last week was the sole reason for Miami looking incompetent is lying to themselves. That Chiefs defense is insane, and no matter how good Buffalo looks offensively, they will make themselves readily apparent in this ballgame.
My second reason is that the injuries are somehow getting worse for the Bills. Terrel Bernard going down is a massive loss for this defense which will need all hands on deck with Mahomes coming to town, especially in that front seven which could be the real difference maker if the Bills want to win this game. They also desperately need Rasul Douglas back. If neither of them can go, it’d make things a lot easier for the visiting quarterback.
Speaking of that quarterback, my third reason is that one Patrick Mahomes is suiting up for the Chiefs. I don’t care that this is his first road playoff game. I don’t care that the Bills are the hottest team in the NFL. I don’t care that Josh Allen is doing Josh Allen things. This is a quarterback that has never missed the AFC Championship Game in his career. I have no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. Sure, this offense isn’t blowing the doors off anyone like in the past. But they’ll grind you down on both sides of the ball and win with some old-school ball. That 2018 Patriots comparison I made a few weeks ago looks more and more true by the game. That formula, which has gotten them this far, will once again prove to be a winning one. And, if I go 2-for-2 in the AFC, the Chiefs will be hosting their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game.
I know I’m sounding like a broken record here, but between Mahomes’ career playoff success — especially — against the Bills, I have to see it to believe it.
Raza Talks Sports 