Cover photo taken from Los Angeles Times.
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 167-95
Browns 23-20 Texans 
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC
I tussled with this pick more than any other this weekend, and I’ve finally settled on the Browns for one main reason: the better defense usually wins in the playoffs. Cleveland’s defense has been perhaps the best in the NFL from start to finish this season, and although they might be without Denzel Ward in this game, their front seven is ferocious enough for me to believe they can affect CJ Stroud enough to make a difference.
On top of that, Houston’s defense is talented, but they haven’t shown me enough to like on the field to believe in them on this stage. Just last week they got gashed on the ground by the Colts. Going up against a similarly dangerous Browns rushing attack makes me believe they’re going to have their hands full yet again. And Joe Flacco should be able to do the rest.
I do think Stroud is going to do enough to make things interesting, but this feels like the spot that Houston’s injuries finally catch up to them. It’s unfortunate, but we all know the future is bright in H-Town. Blindingly bright.
Chiefs 20-10 Dolphins 
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock
Weather is the great equalizer in football, but when one team is from chilly Kansas City and the other is from sunny Miami, there’s gotta be some advantage there for the Chiefs — and it’s not just having the best quarterback ever lining up under center.
Even if this game was being played in a dome or in ideal weather, the Chiefs would win. We saw them beat the Dolphins once already this year, and that was on a neutral site. They should look even better in front of one of the best home crowds in sports.
Moreover, what I said above about the Browns defense applies here too. Kansas City’s defense is one of the best in football, and Miami’s is falling apart due to injury. That’ll be the difference on Saturday night: not the seemingly high-flying offenses, but the dichotomy of defenses.
Cowboys 27-20 Packers 
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
As much as I’d love to believe the Packers are winning this game, I can’t bring myself to pick them. Yes, they’ve been playing excellent football as of late, but Joe Barry’s defense is about to have a very rough return to Earth facing Dak Prescott, Cedarian Lamb and this explosive Cowboys offense after back-to-back gimmes against Jarren Hall/Nick Mullens and Justin Fields.
The win condition for Green Bay is having Jordan Love propel them to victory in a shootout. That’s entirely possible given the way this offense is clicking right now, but Dallas’ defense is also just too good to bet against at this point.
This will be entertaining and back-and-forth, but the better defense and team will prevail late, no matter how much we’d like to see it go the other way.
Rams 26-23 Lions 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
This is the premier matchup of the weekend, and we all know why. I’ll spare everyone the sentimental aspect of things and just stick to football here.
I’ve been high on Detroit for the last month or so, but I’m picking the Rams for a couple of reasons. The first of which is experience, which always comes through in the playoffs. Sean McVay has been to two Super Bowls, won one with Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the vets. What about the rookies you ask? Well, they’re not really playing like rookies, are they? That’s the second reason right there: in the second half of the season, this team has found itself and is now firing on all cylinders. A 7-1 finish to the year is proof enough of that.
The Lions, on the other hand, don’t have much playoff experience at all outside of Jared Goff. And the coach on the other side of the field knows him better than anyone on the planet. I love what they have on offense and in their own coaching staff, but I just have to see it to believe it on this stage. Moreover, their defense has been a weak spot in big moments all year long, and they will have their hands full with the Rams and their weapons. Even at home, I just don’t know if they have what it takes to get the job done. They have to prove me wrong to instill the belief.
Bills 20-17 Steelers 
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Can someone tell me why the Bills are nearly double digit favorites in this ballgame? I can’t make sense of it.
The weather is going to have a huge impact on this contest — in fact, it already has, being moved 27.5 hours into the future to avoid dangerously high winds. That plays right into the hands of the Steelers and their admittedly more consistent style of play and superior run game.
Don’t get me wrong, Buffalo still going to win this game barring a complete Josh Allen collapse. But come on now… it’ll at least be close. Regardless, the Bills are the better team, and at home, they have no excuse but to keep the winning ways going.
Vegas usually knows something I don’t, and Pittsburgh +9.5 is the clearest trap of all traps, but it just makes too much sense.
Buccaneers 30-23 Eagles 
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
I didn’t think we’d be at this point with the Eagles, but here we are. Isn’t this great?
Simply put, the Birds are falling apart at the seams, and that’s a losing formula in the postseason. AJ Brown will miss this game with his knee injury, Devonta Smith has been beat up for weeks now, Jalen Hurts has been playing like a pumpkin for a month-plus and my, oh my, that defense is atrocious.
I know I’ve slandered Baker Mayfield for most of this season, but this is a spot for him to do some real damage. The Bucs offense had a strange finish to the season, but they still have the firepower to beat up a terrible defense like Philly’s, and their own defense has sneakily been solid with young guys like Antoine Winfield Jr. and YaYa Diaby being absolute studs. At home, this feels like a spot where they pull off an “upset” against a team that’s simply reeling so much that anything but a loss would be rather unexpected.
Raza Talks Sports 