Cover photo taken from NCAA.com.
An incredibly fun, wild, and unpredictable college football season filled with upsets and amazing storylines has led to this: a classic New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff slate on Saturday night. This year’s Playoff features some familiar faces, as well as one newcomer, but the outcome of these games is anything but a forgone conclusion. Anything can happen in these final few matchups as we inch closer to crowning a champion in Los Angeles next Monday night. Before I pick Saturday night’s Playoff games, let’s take a look back on each of our contestants and how they got to this point.
#1 Georgia Bulldogs (13-0)
The defending champions have not slowed down for a second and have been the best team in college football all season long. While there was some debate in the middle of the year, the Dawgs left no doubt that they are still the cream of the crop. They enter the Playoff at 13-0 with all but one win coming by double digits and as champions of the SEC, perhaps the best conference in the sport. They moonwalked through everyone they faced this year, bookending the season with massive wins in Atlanta against Oregon and LSU. It’s only fitting that their playoff game comes in the same stadium. Georgia’s formula is nearly identical to last year’s, but the main difference is that the offense is starting to pick up the slack. The defense is still elite, but maybe not as much as the legendary 2021 unit. The other side of the ball is vastly improved with QB Stetson Bennett putting together his best season yet in his final campaign in Athens with over 3,500 total yards and 27 total touchdowns: good enough to be a Heisman finalist. The running back committee of Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton has done its thing while Brock Bowers, the best tight end in football, handles most of the pass-catching duties. The defense is still stacked with returning stars like Kelee Ringo and Christopher Smith locking down the secondary while future top 5 pick Jalen Carter mauls offensive linemen up front. The Dawgs are simply better than everyone else and can beat you in every which way. It’s extremely difficult to see a world where they don’t repeat as champions and establish themselves as the next great power in college football.
#2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
Coming into the 2022 season, there were many questions about whether or not Michigan could live up to their incredible 2021 which featured their first real win over Ohio State and Big Ten title since the turn of the millennium as well as a trip to the Playoff. Many people, myself included, had a lot of doubts that the Wolverines could replicate such a great year, especially with so much talent leaving for the NFL. And all this team did was have an even better season with an even better team. Michigan has looked the part of not only a Playoff team, but a Playoff contender and a true blue blood in the sport all season long. A borderline embarrassing non-conference schedule clouded what was actually a fantastic team. After JJ McCarthy won the starting QB job over Cade McNamara, it took a while for the offense to get going. But a combination of McCarthy’s development and the greatness of the backfield duo of RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards helped propel this offense to be one of the best in the country. Corum was on a Heisman pace with a near-1,500 yard season with 18 rushing touchdowns, but a knee injury sustained in the second to last game of the regular season cut his campaign short. However, Edwards has picked up the slack with two massive games against Ohio State and Purdue. It helps that the defense didn’t lose a step after losing its stars to the draft. It’s now a more balanced, deeper unit that’s even better than its predecessor. The balance and slow burn nature of the Wolverines led them to victory in every game this season, capped off by yet another dominant win over the Buckeyes. Simply put, this team has everything it takes to win a national championship. It’s just a matter of them finally climbing that peak.
#3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)
This team did not begin the season in the AP Top 25. In fact, they didn’t begin the season with a single vote. Nobody believed in first-year head coach Sonny Dykes or QB Max Duggan, who had dealt with so many health problems in his career. Nobody thought they would be anything special. And here they are, the lone first-time contestants in the CFP. TCU has been one of the best stories of the year on so many fronts. Dykes has done a tremendous job with this program, and Duggan has been as incredible of a leader and player as any program could hope for, accounting for 36 total touchdowns en route to a second-place finish in the Heisman voting, the highest of any player in the Playoff. It helps that he has been throwing to future first-rounder Quentin Johnston. They also have a tremendous run game headlined by RB Kendre Miller, and Duggan provides plenty of support with his legs as well. The Frogs had a perfect regular season filled with dramatic, thrilling wins, but unfortunately weren’t able to capture the Big 12 title after a heartbreaking OT loss to Kansas State in the title game. However, it didn’t impact their playoff standing, and they now sit in the Playoff as the 3 seed. They have a tremendous opportunity to make up for the snubs and shortcomings of past TCU teams like the ones in 2011 and 2014, and they can do so with virtually no expectations or weight on their shoulders. If they can play their style of tough, physical football, and get the ball in Max Duggan’s hands to end a game, then they can truly emerge victorious on any given afternoon against any team in the country.
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
It has been an absolute roller coaster of a season in Columbus. As if I should have expected any different. Expectations were sky high all offseason long as the Bucks returned one of the best teams in the country on paper. I fully expected this team to be one of the best Ohio State squads of my life. The returning trio of CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and TreVeyon Henderson was supposed to continue to tear college football to shreds while the vastly improved returning defense locked things down on the other side of the ball. Things ended up going a bit differently. The defense did get a huge boost as DC Jim Knowles was brought in and was able to make an immediate impact. It’s a much better unit than 2021’s, especially in the front seven, but the secondary is still a massive issue. The corners simply aren’t good enough for the scheme and make the defense worse as a whole. That really hurts, considering how great guys like Tommy Eichenberg and JT Tuimoluao have been up front. The other side of the ball has been much crazier. A hamstring injury sustained on his second catch of the year prematurely what could have been a legendary campaign for JSN. Injuries too plagued the season of Henderson, who will miss the CFP with a foot issue. CJ, however, has been just fine, throwing for 3,340 yards and 37 TDs, and that’s in large part to the weapons that have stepped up in JSN’s absence. No one has had a bigger impact than sophomore WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who replaced the consensus best WR in the sport by becoming the consensus best WR in the sport. I told everyone that Harrison would burst onto the scene in a huge way; it was pretty easy to anticipate that out of an incredible athlete like him. The Philly Freak tallied 72 catches for 1,157 yards and 12 TDs and proved to everyone just who WRU is. The other receiver who made a massive splash was fellow sophomore Emeka Egbuka, who also eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark while hauling in 9 scores. Workhorse RB Miyan Williams has largely been able to make up for Henderson’s absence, and true freshman Dallan Hayden provides a great spark off the bench. The Buckeyes boast perhaps the best offense in the country despite the injuries, but the thing they can’t seem to avoid is their own mistakes. This team shoots themselves in the foot more times than I can fathom, and it’s largely due to head-scratching schemes and playcalling from head coach Ryan Day, who has had a puzzling season to say the least. It caused many games to be way closer than they should have been, and it caused the team to lose yet again to Michigan, this time in embarrassing fashion at home. But, they now get a “second lease on life” as the coach loves to say thanks to USC’s loss in the PAC-12 title game. I could write a whole nother piece on Day’s shortcomings in 2022, but I’ll save that for later. But it should not be ignored. It will be the deciding factor in what this team is capable of doing in this Playoff. If they can truly live up to their potential and limit their own mistakes, then nobody is capable of stopping them. But at this point, I just fail to see that happening. It would only be fitting for our season to end because we couldn’t get out of our own way.
These teams are genuinely so close to one another, and I think these matchups are going to be truly fantastic to watch on Saturday night. All that’s left is to to pick the games. Here’s how I see the CFP playing out.
Michigan 24-20 TCU
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl — Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN
Vegas seems to think that this game won’t be as close as the Peach Bowl. I can’t wrap my head around that. I don’t see how this game will be anything but physical, low-scoring, and close. These teams play nearly identical styles of football with both programs priding themselves on running the ball down the opponent’s throats and physically dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I think TCU has the personnel and the talent to compete with Michigan, which most seem to disagree with. But what I can’t argue with is the fact that Michigan’s talent is generally superior on both sides. They have the better athletes and they have the better players at almost every position. I would give TCU the edge at QB, and I know that Max Duggan will never go down without a fight. I trust in his ability to keep TCU in this game from start to finish, but at some point, the brakes are going to come off. Michigan will be able to establish the run with Donovan Edwards, and I think JJ McCarthy will make the necessary throws to allow the Wolverines to separate, similar to his performance in Columbus. Moreover, I trust Michigan’s defense more than TCU’s, which got gashed in the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. They also have what it takes to be the differentiating factor in this game. As much as I would love TCU to pull the upset and emerge victorious, it just feels to unlikely. But this team will not go gentle into that good night. They will rage against the dying of the light. I just don’t think it will be enough.
Georgia 38-24 Ohio State
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl — Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
For four weeks, I have tried time and time again to convince myself that we can win this game. I just can’t bring myself to have that level of faith. In fact, I don’t even know if we can keep this close. This is simply a perfect storm for Georgia. This is their third game of the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after having won the first two by a combined score of 99-33. This is practically another home game for them. They are coming into this game scorching while the Buckeyes fell backwards into the 4 seed after being thumped yet again by their bitter rivals. And they simply matchup up perfectly with Ohio State. The Bucks offense is certainly a juggernaut, but they will not be at full strength against a UGA defense that eats people alive. The Dawgs offense is more than capable of doing damage against a battered OSU defense which hasn’t strung together many great performances as of late. As I said before, if the Bucks come out and play a perfect game by limiting their own self-inflicted mistakes and executing their offense the way they want to, then no one can stop them. When they attack defenses, they emerge victorious every time. But this is just too tough of a test, and I don’t know if these guys are up for it. I want to win so badly, but I’m not going to let that blind me from the truth. This is a good Buckeyes team that refuses to live up to expectations and has simply gone soft as the season has progressed. Their reward for their continued shortcomings is going to be a Bulldogs beatdown on Saturday night in Atlanta. And my 2022 will end on the quietest of whimpers.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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