2023 NFC Preview and Predictions

The NFC is still the more top-heavy of the two conferences, but I think that it will be much improved in 2023, featuring some teams that are bound to surge or resurge, and some that are going to crash.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

NFC East

1st: Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)

We begin with the defending conference champions, who most keen observers had being a great team last year, but not many had in the Super Bowl. I thought they lacked the experience to be a contender, but they were simply so dominant across the board that it didn’t matter. A lot of people have pointed to their subpar schedule of opposing QBs in 2022 — which included Josh Johnson after Brock Purdy was knocked out of the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers — but we all know the Eagles were still the class of the conference. After giving Jalen Hurts the extremely well-deserved bag and once again nailing the offseason, the Birds appear to be in prime position to make amends and chase after that elusive second Lombardi Trophy.

The offense, which was top three in yards and scoring a year ago, is somehow even better thanks to the addition of D’Andre Swift from Detroit via a draft day trade. All of the key skill position players are back, and the offensive line is once again ready to be one of the best in football. The only “key” loss was Miles Sanders to Carolina, but the offensive scheme in Philly should be able to make Swift just as effective as Sanders was out of the backfield. OC Shane Steichen departed for Indianapolis, but his replacement Brian Johnson knows this offense in and out. They will still be just as efficient and prolific as they were a year ago when Jalen Hurts nearly won MVP and A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith each caught 80+ passes for 1,100+ yards.

I expect the Eagles defense to take a step back defensively with the loss of DC Jonathan Gannon combined with a first-place schedule. But there’s still ballers all over the place that will make this an elite unit. First round DT Jalen Carter — who many believed was the best player in the class, but fell to the No. 9 selection due to off-the-field issues at Georgia — joins an already loaded defensive front which feasted all year long in 2022. Last year’s third round steal Nakobe Dean will take over for Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards in the middle and should feast. The secondary got a lift by bringing back James Bradberry, but other than him and Darius Slay, there isn’t a lot to like in the defensive backfield. I think Kelee Ringo and Eli Ricks could develop into stars, but they don’t figure to see. the field much in their rookie seasons. They showed just how much they struggled against real QBs in the Super Bowl when Patrick Mahomes diced them up. After all, it was a defensive holding on Bradberry –which was 100% the right call — that lost them the game. Against much tougher opposition, I think that unit could hold the Birds back a bit in 2023.

Still, the Eagles have the talent across the board and the culture under Nick Sirianni to thrive. Hurts is continuing to blossom into one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, both sides of the ball are stacked, and we know what they are capable of. They’re a surefire contender.

2nd: Dallas Cowboys (11-6)

It’s very difficult for me to say this, but the Cowboys might be the best team in the entire NFC… and even the entire league. They had a great offseason coming off another solid regular season that ended in a disappointing playoff loss to the 49ers. Some might say that this is just a repeat of last year which doesn’t inspire much confidence in a team that hasn’t done so in damn near three decades. And that’s totally fair. But I just get the feeling that this is the year it comes together for the Cowboys.

I’ve been a Dak Prescott pessimist — even a hater — for a long time now. He led the league in interceptions last year with 15 despite missing five games. That’s pretty impressive. But he’s still a capable starter. And if he doesn’t make it work with this offense, then I just don’t know what to do with him. Brandin Cooks joins CeeDee Lamb — one of my favorite players in football — and Michael Gallup to form one of the best WR trios in the sport. Ezekiel Elliott is finally gone and Tony Pollard is now the RB1, where he can thrive as one of the premier pass-catching backs in football. And of course the offensive line needs no introduction. I worry about the tight end position after Dalton Schultz hopped across the state to join the Texans, but the young guys like Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker figure to fill his role very well. They were drafted high by a typically good drafting organization for a reason.

But it’ll be the defense that takes Dallas to the next level in 2023. They selected Michigan DT Mazi Smith to beef up their interior alongside Osa Odighizuwa while Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons wreak havoc off the edges. The middle of the defense is questionable, but the secondary is now loaded thanks to the acquisition of Stephon Gilmore from Indianapolis. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Trevon Diggs lately as he learns to actually be a corner and not just a ballhawk. Combine those two with guys like Jourdan Lewis and Malik Hooker, and this defense will do what it does best — force turnovers. In a division and a conference with some pretty solid passing offenses, that can and will put them over the top.

But the problem with Dallas is and always has been Mike McCarthy. He’s just such an inept in-game coach, which goes disastrously when combined with Dak’s in-game ineptitude that usually rears its ugly head when the going gets tough. I think those two will always be what holds this team back in its biggest moments.

3rd: Washington Commanders (7-10)

To put it simply, the Commanders will never be anything more than a 7 to 8-win team under Ron Rivera. I said the same thing last season when I also predicted a 7-10 record, and they went 8-8-1. Under Rivera, Washington has won 7, 7, and 8 games, and I don’t see much to assuage me of the notion that nothing is going to change. We are never going to be good enough to contend, and we are never going to be bad enough to get a franchise-changing player in the draft. We will just be… mid. And this purgartory-esque cycle will only continue as long as Rivera is the head coach.

Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way. The energy around this team has never been higher thanks to the new ownership, which I’m very thankful for. I think it will be truly awesome to see the fanbase show up and show out this season as we enter a new era of football in the District.

We all know how great this defense is, and I think the selection of CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr. in the first round was a tremendous pick as he gives the secondary a playmaker that was previously lacking. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne will continue to be the best defensive interior duo in football while Montez Sweat and Chase Young figure to ball out off the edges in contract seasons — we’ll see how healthy Chase stays. The linebacking core is… not great, which has been the case for Rivera’s entire tenure. You’d think a former linebacker would figure this out by now. Unless Jamin Davis finally develops into the guy this staff saw in him when they selected him in the first round, he and Cody Barton figure to hold the unit as a whole back. But there’s only so much they can or can’t do. Every other unit is stacked, and this should be an elite defense once again.

Then there’s the issue of the offense, which figures to take a leap under new OC Eric Bieniemy — a two-time Super Bowl champion with Kansas City. The wide receiver trio is well-respected with Terry McLaurin being the guy and finally getting the bag this offseason, Jahan Dotson being a widely-recognized stud who is only going to get better, and Curtis Samuel continuing to be a Swiss Army knife. The backs are also solid with Brian Robinson Jr. being the workhorse and Antonio Gibson catching passes out of the backfield. The offensive line is rather terrible and a massive concern that has rather suspiciously not been remotely addressed in recent years. Acquiring Andrew Wylie — who was one of the worst right tackles in all of football in 2022 — is not exactly a marquee move. But all eyes are on the man under center. Sam Howell enters the fray at QB after a wild ride since his sophomore year at North Carolina. We all know he’s had a great camp and preseason, but I really still need to see it to believe it. It’s one thing to make plays in practice and against backups. It’s another thing to do it in the regular season against stout competition. I have faith in Sam, and I really hope he works out. But with a certain USC QB looming in the 2024 draft, I also wouldn’t mind if this offense led us down the gutter.

4th: New York Giants (6-11)

The 2023 New York Football Giants are like James Harden at the top of the key — guaranteed to take a step back.

I do want to proceed with caution here. I picked the Giants to go 2-15 and finish with the No. 1 overall pick in 2022. They ended up with a 9-7-1 record en route winning a road playoff game against a 13-4 Vikings team. Brian Daboll’s first season was a resounding success and he was named AP Coach of the Year. But I’m here to tell you that I do not care.

For starters, I still don’t buy Daniel Jones. Yes, he had a good season last year. But how good do we really think he is? He threw 15 touchdowns in 16 games. Yes, he was tremendous on the ground, but I have a feeling that defenses will actually know how to stop him this year. It definitely helps to have Saquon Barkley back, but can the running ability of a QB and RB make up for the complete lack of weapons at WR? Because something about a receiving trio of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Parris Campbell doesn’t move me. Hodgins had a very nice year in 2022, but Campbell is too injury-prone and Slayton is too inconsistent for me to be impressed. Unless rookie Jalin Hyatt learns that there’s more to the position than running fast in a straight line, I don’t see this passing offense being threatening. And I think the run game could definitely hit some snags, especially if Barkley can’t stay healthy like he was able to last year.

The good news for New York is that the defense is still really good. The front seven is absolutely loaded with guys like Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Azeez Ojulari, Bobby Okereke, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. That unit alone will carry them to the top half of all defenses in football. But man, I have some reservations about this secondary. Xavier McKinney had a nice 2022 and Adoree Jackson saw a mini-resurgence, but the Giants will be inserting two rookies at corner with first rounder Deonte Banks — who I loved out of Maryland — and sixth rounder Tre Hawkins. I just can’t get behind these guys.

Maybe they prove me wrong again. Maybe Daboll coaches his ass off yet again and the Giants sneak in once more. But I think the rest of the NFC should be much improved, and I think this team is simply going to take a very natural step back.

NFC North

1st: Green Bay Packers (12-5)

Have I learned my lesson? Absolutely not. Do I care? Absolutely not. The Packers are coming back in 2023, and they’re coming with a vengeance.

My love for Jordan Love is well-documented, and I believe he’s going to lead Green Bay back to where they want to be. I genuinely believe this team has upgraded at QB by getting rid of Aaron Rodgers and finally handing the keys to the franchise to the young star. He’s had three years to sit and learn and should absolutely thrive in this offense. He has the talent to make every throw, and I believe he will do just that. It helps that the offensive skill position players are young and talented as well. When your veteran in that regard is Aaron Jones, you’re in a good spot. Jones will be able to do his usual work and then some thanks to the emergence of young WRs like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs along rookies like Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. I wish they took Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft, but they decided to spread the wealth by spending three later picks on pass-catchers, including TE Luke Musgrave out of Iowa, who could also prove to be a huge receiving threat. The Packers have finally invested in the WR group, and I think it’s going to pay dividends for them.

I still think this defense is great. I absolutely despise DC Joe Barry, but this unit had times last year where they reminded you what they’re capable of. There are simply playmakers all across the board from Kenny Clark to De’Vondre Campbell to Rashan Gary to Jaire Alexander. If the young guys like Devonte Wyatt and Quay Walker can splash, this can be one of the best front sevens in football. I do worry about the secondary outside of Alexander, but I feel good about every other area of this team.

With an easier schedule than last year and everything seemingly trending upwards, I think Love is going to prove himself in a huge way and lead the Packers back to the playoffs, where they can certainly do more damage.

2nd: Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

The 2023 Vikings can be summarized in four succinct words: regression to the mean.

In 2022, Minnesota went 11-0 in one-score games. That’s unheard of. They won every game decided by eight points or less while going 2-4 in games decided by more than eight points. The former is simply not sustainable. That’s a once-in-a-lifetime statistic. By subtracting less than half of those one-score wins, I arrived at this record. There’s a chance they’re even worse than this.

So why am I still picking them to finish second — above the fan-favorite Lions — and sneak into the playoffs? Well, I think they can win shootouts against almost any other team in the league. And they’ll probably be in a lot of shootouts, because their offense is fantastic whereas their defense is anything but. While the offense boasts the eternally-underrated Kirk Cousins, arguably the best WR in football in Justin Jefferson, a rookie bound to break out in Jordan Addison, and a new RB1 in Alexander Mattison, the defense isn’t much to look at. There are some solid players — Harrison Phillips, Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport, Harrison Smith, and Byron Murphy to name a few. But those don’t exactly equate to an elite defense. Everyone is expecting this bottom-five defense from 2022 to be great all of a sudden because the Vikings hired Brian Flores as their DC. I’d be shocked if he can even turn them into a top-15 defense. That’s a tall task for anyone, even a supposed defensive genius like him.

Combine the defensive shortcomings with a first-place schedule — the sixth-hardest in the league by SOS — and the Vikings are simply a fringe wild card team. But they could just be straight up bad. They could be terrible.

3rd: Detroit Lions (7-10)

I’m not going to apologize for this. I’m not going to fall head-over-heels for this team that hasn’t accomplished anything yet. I understand this division isn’t the strongest on paper. I understand the Lions ended last season on a tear. I understand their culture is one of the best in the league. I genuinely hope the Lions have a great season — they deserve it more than any other team in football.

The one guarantee I have for this Detroit team is that their offense will continue to be prolific. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams might be gone, but Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are very solid replacements. Gibbs could end up being the the next Alvin Kamara if he turns into the player the Lions had in mind when selecting him with the No. 12 pick. They seemingly have their T.J. Hockenson in Sam LaPorta who was selected in the second round out of Iowa — Hockenson’s alma mater. The offensive line is arguably the best in football. They have one of the best and most dependable receivers in the league in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is only getting better with every passing season. And once speedster Jameson Williams returns from a gambling suspension, they figure to form one of the better duos in football. As long as QB Jared Goff doesn’t turn into a pumpkin — which I don’t think will happen, but he tends to do when the going gets tough or when he has to play outside — this will once again be one of the top offenses in football.

But this defense is still just one giant question mark. The front seven only really has Aidan Hutchinson, Charles Harris, and Alex Anzalone. Jack Campbell was a really weird selection in the first round when the secondary should’ve been addressed instead. Detroit did rework that area by adding Emmanuel Moseley, Cameron Sutton, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the fold and drafting Brian Branch in the second round, which I thought was a great pick. But it just feels like a weird amalgamation of pieces that are going to take too long to gel.

We could see a situation similar to 2022 where the Lions struggle for a bit — especially defensively — before turning it up down the stretch. To me, that’s not good enough to make the playoffs.

4th: Chicago Bears (6-11)

I think I’m being a bit generous to the Bears here. Six wins would be a huge accomplishment with a roster this terrible.

The biggest problem remains the offensive line, which was somewhat addressed through the draft where Chicago selected Darnell Wright in the first round to be their franchise right tackle. But that means Justin Fields’ blindside is still in a bad spot, as is the rest of the line. I love Justin and always have, but he’ll still be running for his life. That obviously isn’t always a bad thing, as he had one of the most prolific rushing seasons of all time last year. But it will hinder the passing game. The Bears did finally get him a proper WR1 by trading for D.J. Moore, who will definitely help elevate him as a passer. But the rest of the offense is just so… meh. I feel like Justin can only carry them for so long before the wheels fall off

The defense is also still terrible, but the Bears placed a heavy emphasis on it by selecting five defenders in the draft, including four to fill the box. They also beefed up at linebacker by signing T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds — necessary additions after trading away Roquan Smith. But the secondary still leaves a lot to be desired, even if the safety combination of Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker is a good one.

This is still an ongoing rebuild, and I think this team is taking the right steps. But it’ll be a while longer until they get where they want to go. The important thing is continuing to develop Justin Fields and protect him by surrounding him with weapons and a competent offensive line. They still have some work to do there.

NFC South

1st: New Orleans Saints (9-8)

In a division full of mid, the Saints stand out as the best team. But this was not an easy choice by any means. They have given me plenty of reasons to believe they won’t even be good.

For starters, I still think their coaching staff is absolutely dreadful. Dennis Allen is simply not a real head coach in my eyes, and Pete Carmichael is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league. It does help that the offense has the talent to be good. The addition of Derek Carr at QB is an interesting one given his recent declines, but perhaps he sees a mini-revival in the Big Easy. But Chris Olave has proven to be worth the trade-up, and the RB room should stay afloat while Alvin Kamara serves his suspension with the additions of Jamaal Williams in free agency and Kendre Miller in the draft. If — and this is the biggest if in the world at this point — Michael Thomas is healthy, they can be a great offense. But all signs point towards them being middle of the pack.

The good news for the Saints is that the defense should still be great. Jordan Cameron and Demario Davis are still kicking it up front, and I really like their secondary. I think in a division filled with very mediocre offenses, this defense can help separate them from the rest of the pack. That’ll be good enough to win this division, but almost certainly not good enough to do much else.

2nd: Atlanta Falcons (6-11)

The Falcons are the trendy pick to win this division, and that’s warranted. They are finally free from the shackles of Marcus Mariota, selected one of the most dynamic RB prospects in recent memory in Bijan Robinson with the No. 7 pick, and have all the pieces they need to see a breakout on both sides of the ball.

This was one of the top rushing offenses in the league last year — a natural result of running the ball more than any other team in football with one of the best offensive lines in the league — and now they boast a stacked running back room that is guaranteed to do a ton of damage. But I don’t buy into any passing attack in Atlanta. I don’t believe in Desmond Ridder at all, and even if he ends up being good, he’s only throwing to Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Seriously, name me who the WR2 is on this team. Mack Hollins? Khadarel Hodge? It doesn’t matter. This will be another run-heavy season for the Falcons, which took them nowhere last year. Even with someone as talented as Bijan Robinson, that figures to happen once again in 2023.

I will say I like what the Falcons are building on defense. I liked the acquisitions of Jeff Okudah and Jessie Bates to continue building a solid secondary around A.J. Terrell. And they’ve bolstered the defensive line with guys like Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Bud Dupree. But the linebacking core might be the worst in the league, and I have a feeling that this defense will get gashed up the middle.

Even though the Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule in the league, this team simply isn’t going to the playoffs, no matter how many narratives are pushed in the media.

3rd: Carolina Panthers (6-11)

The Panthers rebuild has gotten the biggest possible boost thanks to the team trading all the way up to the No. 1 pick in the draft and selecting Bryce Young to be their franchise QB.

I think they might have given up a bit too much considering they are rebuilding, but there’s no doubt that Young is a fantastic centerpiece for any franchise to have. He’s going to be a great player in this league for many years to come. Carolina has done a good job of surrounding their new franchise player with solid talent by adding Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst, and Miles Sanders in free agency while selecting Jonathan Mingo in the second round. The offensive line is still iffy, but there’s time for Ikem Ekwonu to develop into their rock at left tackle. With Frank Reich at the helm, I’m confident that this offense will be good, and could be great in a few years.

The Panthers also made some solid additions on defense by adding Justin Houston and Frankie Luvu at linebacker as well as Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods at safety. They have a bonafide CB1 in Jaycee Horn, star LB in Brian Burns, and very good DT in Derrick Brown. And Shaq Thompson is still doing his thing up there too. This defense was one of the worst in football last year. If their newcomers can splash, then I think they can turn it around.

So, with seemingly so much positivity, why the poor record? Well, it’s still early for all of these pieces to come together, and although Bryce Young is fantastic, he’s just a rookie. I think it’ll still be a year or two before this team contends for a division championship. But I see them as the new Jaguars of the last couple years. With a star top-overall selection at QB and a resurging culture, they’ll be just fine.

4th: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-12)

The Bucs are starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback, so this really doesn’t need much of an explanation. You’re not going anywhere if that guy is lining up under center. It’s that simple. 

But there’s plenty else to dislike with the Buccaneers. The wheels absolutely fell off down the stretch last year thanks to injuries, so maybe they return to being average across the board. But I just don’t buy into this team — and certainly not this coaching staff — with Tom Brady gone. The offensive line is dreadful even if Tristan Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the league. Mike Evans should still produce, but Chris Godwin can’t stay healthy, and their WR3 is… who exactly? And while I like Rachaad White, I’m not sure how much I like their run game. Even last year with Leonard Fournette, it was absolutely putrid — the worst in the league. This offense will likely be terrible. 

While the defense still boasts a ton of talent, it feels like their best days are behind them. The front seven has key guys like Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White, and I think Calijah Kancey and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka could develop into solid edge rushers. But the secondary still leaves a lot to be desired. When your CB1 is Jamel Dean, you’re probably not a good unit. Even if it’ll be hard to run on the Bucs, teams will definitely be able to throw all over them, and I think that’ll be their undoing in close games. 

Tampa is diving head-first into a rebuild and it shows. Their best bet is to just tank this season and pray you get a top QB in April’s draft. 

NFC West

1st: San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

It’s not a hot take to say that the 49ers are the best team in the NFC, nor is it to say they’re the best team in the league. This is the best roster in the NFL from top to bottom and it’s probably not close. Last season ended so unceremoniously that you’d have to imagine these guys come out with a vengeance and light up the regular season from start to finish.

I don’t really want to talk about Trey Lance — especially considering how things went the last time I did — so I’ll keep the QB situation brief. The Niners are trusting Brock Purdy to continue to be the guy despite only starting a few games last year and having his UCL obliterated in the NFC Championship Game. I think it’s fair considering he has never lost a game, but this better work. To give up what they did for Lance just to ship him away after four starts is just insane. Luckily for them, I think Purdy is more than capable of being a competent starter, which is all this team needs to go places. The rest of the offense is an embarrassment of riches that need no introduction. The best tackle in football (maybe ever?) in Trent Williams, the ultimate Swiss Army knives of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, a fantastic WR2 in Brandon Aiyuk, and one of the premier tight ends of the last several years in George Kittle pretty much ensure that this offense is going to thrive no matter who lines up under center. 

Then there’s the defense, which was the best in football last year and obviously will be once again. It helps when you have the best defensive player in the sport in Nick Bosa. Surely they figure out how to give him a blank check, right? They beefed up the interior by adding Javon Hargrave from Philly. They have the best LB in the league in Fred Warner and a very solid player in Dre Greenlaw beside him. I definitely have my concerns about the secondary outside of Talanoa Hufanga, who has blossomed into one of the league’s best safeties, and it doesn’t help that Demeco Ryans isn’t here anymore to make up for any shortcomings. But I loved the Steve Wilks hire, and I don’t think this defense will take a step back under him.

This is the best team in the NFL on paper and anything short of a Super Bowl berth should be considered a failure. If they can avoid the injury bug — especially at QB — they will be playing a football game in Las Vegas on February 11th, 2024.

2nd: Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

I never thought I’d say this, but I think I’m being a bit too mean to the Seahawks. This is one of my favorite teams in football this year. You have no idea how much it pains me to say that. 

After trading away Russell Wilson, Seattle’s front office proved that they pulled the ultimate fleece as Russ turned into a pumpkin and the Seahawks soared into the playoffs thanks to a resurgent Geno Smith — who won Comeback Player of the Year — and young playmakers all over the place on both sides of the ball. Now, those young guys have more experience, and Geno is back on a huge deal. The offense could be even better now that Jaxon Smith-Njigba — who I thought was the best non-QB in the draft — completes perhaps the best WR trio in football alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Zach Charbonnet was selected with their second round pick to form a thumping one-two punch at RB alongside Kenneth Walker. 

On the other side of the ball, it’s clear what the Seahawks are doing: rebuilding the Legion of Boom. Riq Woolen (still getting used to that name change) and Coby Bryant were absolute studs as rookies — which anyone who saw them play in college saw from a mile away. Quandre Diggs continues to be the most underrated safety in the league. And who knows, maybe Jamal Adams remembers how to play football. On top of all this, they add the No. 5 overall pick Devon Witherspoon — who was selected with the pick so generously provided to them by the Broncos — to the mix, who is a freakish, long corner that complements Woolen perfectly. The front seven isn’t as good, but guys like Jordyn Brooks and Boye Mafe have come along brilliantly, and they added Dre’mont Jones for a pass rushing lift in free agency. I think this defense has a chance to not just be one of the best in the NFC, but the entire league. Of course, it’ll be hard to top their NFC West counterparts above them in this prediction, but they have all the potential in the world.

The combination of the youth movement with Geno Smith — who has truly overcome the odds and proven himself as a high-quality starting QB — and the incredible coaching of Pete Carroll has me very excited for what this Seahawks team can do. It’s a fairly easy schedule, and even though perhaps the best team in the league is in their division, this will be a playoff team. And no one will want to see them once they get there.

3rd: Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

This is where the NFC West goes from amazing to absolutely unwatchable garbage that I don’t want any part of. 

You might be shocked to see me put the Cardinals anywhere but last, but I have a good reason for it. Signs are pointing towards Kyler Murray returning for the end of the season, and with Jonathan Gannon trying to build a new culture in Arizona, this team is going to fight down the stretch to throw away a generational QB prospect just like the Jets did in 2021. I honestly think that’s a perfect comparison. They’ll suck for the entire season then go on a meaningless run at the death to watch Caleb Williams fall into another team’s hands (more on that later).

But that’s the whole story of this Cardinals team. We’re only watching to see how bad they can be. Will they have the first overall pick? The first two picks in the draft courtesy of the Houston Texans? Is this the end of Kyler Murray in a Cardinals uniform? These are all in the realm of possibility. But it’s too predictable. The team that finishes with the worst record in the league is hardly ever the one we think it’s going to be. Plus, I think the Cards have enough good players to not be the worst team in the league. They’ll be basement dwellers for sure, but they still have guys like James Conner, Hollywood Brown, and Zach Ertz. The offensive line is… kind of starting to come together with the addition of Paris Johnson Jr. No one has any idea what they’re going to do at QB until Kyler returns, but like I said, it won’t matter. Once he gets back, this team will play themselves squarely out of the opportunity to save their franchise with Caleb Williams. And honestly? It’ll be really funny.

4th: Los Angeles Rams (3-14)

Here it is. Perhaps my boldest take of the season. The Los Angeles Rams — who are one season removed from a Super Bowl victory and boast one of the best QBs of our generation, one of the best WRs in the league, and perhaps the best defensive player of all time — are going to finish with the worst record in the NFL. And none of those three players will be in Los Angeles this time next year.

Just hear me out. Last year, the Rams were dreadful for a plethora of reasons. The injury bug bit them all over as Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and countless others went down due to injury. They had one of the worst offensive lines in the league, an anemic offense, and a defense severely lacking in anything other than playmaking ability from Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Here we are at the start of the 2023 season and Matt Stafford is still nagged by his elbow, Cooper Kupp has hamstring issues, the offensive line wasn’t addressed in any way other than taking a guard in the draft, Aaron Donald wants to stop playing the sport, and Jalen Ramsey is gone. On top of all this, the Rams didn’t improve in any areas — they made no splashes in free agency and their draft was really puzzling. Therefore, I’m going to assume that the exact issues that plagued them last year will rear their ugly heads again in 2023, but it’ll be so much worse. And that puts them squarely in the running for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Sean McVay is a smart guy who needs a reason to keep coaching this team. He knows that if he gets Caleb Williams, it could be curtains for the league. And what’s a better story than the Heisman winner staying in Hollywood and bringing the Rams back to relevance? I think it makes too much sense, and I’m shocked more people aren’t thinking like me.

Then there’s the issue of those aforementioned three key players leaving. I think Matt Stafford is almost done in this league. I think the injuries are starting to catch up to him, and even if he can play, there’s no way he stays in LA in this scenario. He’s not going to be a backup. He’ll go somewhere to die like Matt Ryan in Indianapolis or Philip Rivers in Indianapolis… is Matt Stafford going to Indianapolis? Probably not. Cooper Kupp is undoubtedly a commodity at WR and one of the game’s best playmakers, but if the Rams want to acquire the draft capital necessary to get this rebuild going, they’re going to deal him. They can get a very good return for him, even with the injury problems. And with Aaron Donald, I simply don’t see a world where he ends this season on the Rams. He’ll either be traded or retire. Take it to the bank.

All of this culminates in the Rams going from the absolute pinnacle of the sport to its dumpster. But luckily for them, Caleb Williams will drag them out with swiftness. Could you imagine winning the Super Bowl and landing that caliber of a QB in a two-year span? I’m jealous.

Playoff Picture

1 – San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

2 – Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)

3 – Green Bay Packers (12-5)

4 – New Orleans Saints (9-8)

5 – Dallas Cowboys (11-6)

6 – Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

7 – Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

Wild Card Weekend

Eagles over Vikings: As I said above, the Vikings are going to sneak into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth and get immediately blasted. This trip to Philly in January could end in a very, very embarrassing loss for them as they likely move on from Kirk Cousins and try to move into a new era that, hopefully for them, is more fruitful than this one was.

Seahawks over Packers: This is really hard for me. I really love what both of these teams are doing. I think the Packers have a very bright future with Jordan Love, but this might be too tall of a task in his first playoff game, even at home. Lambeau has ironically been Green Bay’s house of horrors in the playoffs lately. I think the Seahawks win a thriller to move on.

Cowboys over Saints: Yeah, this one won’t be close. Next!

Divisional Round

49ers over Seahawks: This would truly be a hell of a game. I think the Seahawks can match up with their division rivals, and we’ve seen time and time again how the three-match in the playoffs can be so close. But we saw this matchup in the Wild Card last year, and San Francisco dominated. With the Niners coming off a bye here, it’s just impossible to pick against them, no matter how much I like the Seahawks.

Eagles over Cowboys: I really do think this is a tossup. Last year showed that the Cowboys match up so well with the Eagles, and I think Dallas had a better offseason. It’s just too difficult for me to place my faith in them in the playoffs, especially considering how the last two have gone for them. It would admittedly be very funny if Mike McCarthy shenanigans get them eliminated for the third straight year.

NFC Championship Game

49ers over Eagles: Revenge. It’s that simple. The 49ers are going to be out for blood in 2023 after how their season ended in Philadelphia in January, and there’s nobody who they want to beat more than the Eagles themselves. Despite the fact that the Birds can go toe-to-toe with the Niners, I think winning this game in the Bay just isn’t happening for them. The 49ers have been waiting for so long to finally win another Super Bowl, and I get the feeling that this team has the best chance of any in the last several years. They get their revenge against the Eagles and get to Las Vegas, where a certain unstoppable force will await them on the biggest stage yet again. But I’ll get into that tomorrow.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Divisional Round Picks

Only eight teams remain as we head into an absolutely stacked weekend. Here are my picks to make next week’s Championship games.

Cover photo taken from Sportcasting.

Last Week: 4-2

Season Total: 177-97-2

Chiefs 27-20 Jaguars

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NBC

In analyzing and/or picking this game, there are really only two statistics to consider. The first of which is that Andy Reid is the greatest head coach off a bye in the history of the sport. He boasts a record of 27-4 following an off week, including a perfect 3-0 record in the AFC playoffs with the Chiefs (1-1 in Super Bowls). The second of which is that both the Chiefs and every other 1 seed ever largely struggle as large favorites in the Divisional Round. 1 seeds have gone 13-25-1 ATS in this round in the last 20 years, and 8-22-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less. Some books have this spread to 8.5 or 9. So, you can bank on the Chiefs winning this game, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you or Vegas think. Moreover, we pretty much know what we’re going to get out of these teams. The Jaguars are an amazing story and are good enough to give any team in the AFC fits. Their offense is certainly capable of putting up both yards and points on an underwhelming, continuously underperforming Chiefs defense, especially through the air with Trevor Lawrence slinging it all over the yard. But they don’t have what it takes to go to Arrowhead and beat Kansas City off a bye, especially considering how dominant the Chiefs have been and how incredible Patrick Mahomes has been playing this season. The MVP-to-be enters this game after putting up the most offensive yards in a season in the history of the league. Everyone on offense is getting involved, and it all starts with the greatness of #15. After seeing how Jacksonville’s pass defense has fared in recent games, I don’t trust them to limit Mahomes in any capacity. Jacksonville might be able to keep up for a while, but this is simply too tall of a task for a young team that has overachieved this season.

Eagles 24-20 Giants

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, FOX

If last week’s divisional contests (with the exception of the last 20 or so minutes of the Seahawks-49ers game) were any indication, we’re in for a close game on Saturday night. Another reason to support that is what I said above about how 1 seeds perform ATS in the Divisional Round. Combine that with the uncertainty around Jalen Hurts’ shoulder and the general feistiness of the Giants, and you have the makings of a physical divisional bloodbath. Both of these defenses will show up and show out on the big stage. In my opinion, this game comes down to whichever offense can execute better in key moments down the stretch. New York’s offense looked surgical from start to finish last week in Minnesota, but that was against one of the league’s worst defenses. On a cold night against a fantastic Philly defense, they will have a tougher time. While there are questions around Hurts and his injury, I think he has had more than enough time off to heal and get ready for this game. If the Birds offensive line can keep him upright and get enough push on the Eagles’ patented run plays, then they could win this game comfortably. It will be tough against a stout Giants front, but I like Philly in that matchup. It will take a few key plays late from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense, but they will be the ones celebrating by the end of the night en route to the title game.

Bills 30-27 Bengals

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, CBS

This is easily my most anticipated matchup of this round, if not this entire season, and I think it’ll easily be the best game of the weekend. That’s exactly what I said when these teams met three weeks ago. I’m just as excited now as I was then, and I can’t wait to see them play a full playoff game against one another. However, my pick is different this time, and it’s hard to explain. I still think the Bengals are the better team, and I still think they’re the best team in the league. I think people who believe they’re somehow worse because they struggled in primetime against a division rival are vastly misguided. I think Joe Burrow is better than Josh Allen. I think Ja’Marr Chase might be better than Stefon Diggs. The Bengals can actually run the ball with a good backfield whereas the Bills can’t run the ball with anyone but their QB. And at this point, Cincinnati might have a better defense. On top of everything, Joe Burrow might be the best QB as an underdog in the league right now, and he has proven time and time again that he can go on the road and win these huge games against great teams. So why am I switching up now and picking Buffalo? The biggest reason is the injuries to Cincinnati’s offensive line. They will be without their three best linemen after they had spent all regular season healthy. Last week, Burrow was under duress quite a lot against a pass rush that’s only slightly better than the ones the Bills possess. Again, Burrow has proven that he can overcome this, but the Bengals have also proven that this can be their downfall in a big spot. But more than anything, the Bills just feel like they’re in the midst of a special run. They are playing inspired and the entire city of Buffalo is rallying behind them. They did not play a sharp game last week, but I think they’ll look much better on Sunday afternoon. If Josh Allen plays clean, mistake-free football (which I don’t feel comfortable with expecting), then the Bills have the offensive capability to win this game comfortably. All they have to do is get after Joe Burrow. If he has enough time to throw, he will make them pay. I just don’t see that being possible without his two starting tackles and best interior lineman. He has done it before, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads Cincy to another improbable victory. But I can’t bank on that right now.

49ers 31-20 Cowboys

Sunday, 6:30 PM, FOX

This is the big brand game of the weekend, and rightfully so. Cowboys-49ers in the playoffs is as classic as it gets and always seems to deliver. It certainly did last year in a thrilling Wild Card game in Dallas that ended on one of the most mind-boggling late-game plays and execution sequences in recent memory that sent the Cowboys home early and propelled the Niners to a near-Super Bowl run. This game feels quite different with San Francisco being the hottest team in the league, having won their last 11 games and barely breaking a sweat despite having to turn to Brock Purdy. The rookie continues to ball out with perhaps the best weapons in the league and easily the best defense in football behind him. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were overlooked by quite a lot of people, myself included, before going to Tampa and smacking the Bucs last Monday. They’re the underdogs in this game, but you can guarantee that they won’t go down without a fight. However, I feel like Monday night’s performance is once again swinging the pendulum of our perception of the Cowboys completely in the other direction. All of a sudden, people think they’re the best team in the NFC that can go on the road to play perhaps the best team in the league and win. I think we need to pump the brakes there. I think Dallas might be the most overmatched team in this entire round. They looked great against a Buccaneers team that we all knew was awful. How are they going to look against the 49ers? Will Dak Prescott be able to replicate his performance from last week against the best defense in the league? I say no. Will Dallas’ own defense be able to slow down San Francisco’s offense, which no one else has been able to do? I say no again. I think Purdy and company will have their way with the Cowboys’ susceptible defense, and Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the defense will lock up Dak and the Dallas offense for the most part en route to another fairly easy win for the Niners for them to get back to the conference title game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After the best College Football Playoff semis of all time, it’s time to crown a national champion. Here’s my preview of the title game and my pick to hoist the trophy in Los Angeles.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

After months of tremendous games, countless storylines, and the best College Football Playoff of all time, it’s time to crown a national champion. Tonight in Los Angeles, the top-seeded Georgia Bulldogs look to become the first back-to-back champs in over a decade as they take on the unlikely underdogs from Fort Worth: the 3rd ranked TCU Horned Frogs.

For UGA, this is just another game. They have only lost one game in the last two years, and despite having to pull off an improbable comeback against Ohio State in a 42-41 Peach Bowl win, there was little to no doubt that they would make it to the title game. Their typically elite defense struggled mightily with the star-studded Buckeyes offense, but QB Stetson Bennett and the Dawgs’ own offense went to work and were scorching hot in the passing game to help get them to this game. But that’s not a position that Georgia wants to be in. They pride themselves on their defensive greatness, and if they bend like that, they might just break. They got away with a lot last Saturday and could have lost the game by all means. Their offense bailed them out, but that’s not guaranteed to repeat itself, especially against a better TCU defense that excels at getting after the passer and forcing turnovers. It’s safe to say that Kirby Smart will have his guys ready to play a much sharper game on Monday night.

TCU, on the other hand, has had one of the more improbable runs to the title game. They weren’t even ranked to begin the season before going 12-0 in the regular season. Despite losing the Big 12 title game, they reached the Playoff and erased any and all doubt about their legitimacy as a contender by outlasting Michigan in an absolutely electrifying 51-48 Fiesta Bowl victory. The defense scored two touchdowns and forced plenty more turnovers to make life easy for Max Duggan and the offense, who did what they had to do as well. The performance helped bring light to the fact that TCU isn’t just any old underdog. They are a real team that can compete with, and perhaps beat, any team in the country on any given day. They have the grit and the identity that every college football program yearns for. The only question that remains is: can that get them on top of the mountain? TCU is still being disrespected by everyone; not many folks are giving them a chance in this game. The 12.5-point spread is the largest I think I’ve ever seen in a title game. This team deserves more respect than that. We’ll see if they can go out and take it.

My Pick

Georgia 38-27 TCU

Monday, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN

Some Davids aren’t meant to slay Goliath. While I think TCU has one of the best shots to become an underdog that wins a title, this feels like too steep of a mountain to climb. However, unlike many, I think they’ll be competitive from start to finish. They have the talent on both sides of the ball to compete with Georgia and their 5-star players. Their offense is operating at an extremely high level with their exquisite run game, and their defense swarms to the ball to force turnover after turnover. The Dawgs looked pretty vulnerable the last time we saw them, and I think Sonny Dykes and the Frogs can exploit a lot of the flaws in their game, especially attacking their defense. It wouldn’t shock me if we saw TCU control this game for a while. But the superior talent and coaching of Georgia will prevail in the end. They’ll likely have a similar 4th quarter to the one they had against Ohio State to pull out a late win. Maybe this is a bit too large of a point differential, but I can see UGA pulling away late to make it look more convincing than it actually was. To me, it’s a matter of attrition with these two defenses. If TCU’s defense can hold throughout the game, they’ll have a great chance to win it. But if they slowly fold like they did against Michigan, Georgia will take advantage. If the Dawgs defense plays like they did on New Year’s Eve, they will be in deep trouble. But if they return to their status quo, then Stetson Bennett and the offense can do their thing. I see the latter being much more likely, and I see Georgia lifting the trophy when it’s all said and done to become the first repeat champions since Alabama ten years ago to continue proving themselves as the new perennial power in college football.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 18 Picks

The final week of the 2022 regular season is upon us with a plethora of different playoff scenarios and postseason-deciding matchups that could allow this great season to end on a high note.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 10-5

Season Total: 161-91-2

Chiefs 27-20 Raiders

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

The only reason that I feel like this game will be remotely close is because of how much the Chiefs have struggled as big favorites this year and throughout Patrick Mahomes’ tenure in KC. As 9.5-point road favorites, a close game feels imminent. The Raiders certainly have the offensive talent to keep up with Kansas City, even if Jarrett Stidham is still the starting QB. Expect another huge game out of Davante Adams, who lit up the Chiefs secondary in primetime early in the season. But I have no doubt that the Chiefs will come away with the win. For starters, Mahomes has still never lost a road divisional game, which is one of the most staggering statistics in league history. He’s probably going to light up the statsheet in another massive performance. Moreover, the Chiefs know that the 1 seed is on the line, and they have to win to ensure homefield advantage for at least one of their playoff games. They will do what they have to do on Saturday evening in Paradise.

Jaguars 20-19 Titans

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

I feel like everybody thinks the Titans are going to get whacked in this game. Honestly, I feel that sentiment. But I know more than anything that Mike Vrabel always coaches the Titans to play their best ball in these moments. Even on the road with their 3rd string QB, I know I can expect Tennessee to fight their tail off with the division on the line. But it feels impossible to pick against the Jaguars in this spot. They have a golden opportunity to usher in a new era of football in Jacksonville and finally crown Trevor Lawrence as the savior, taking them to their first division title in his first real year of play. I think it’s going to be a slugfest throughout, and I actually think that Lawrence and the Jaguars offense will largely struggle against the stout Titans front. I feel like it’ll be the Jags’ young defense that steps up and makes a play against Josh Dobbs and the Titans offense to seal it in the end.

Buccaneers 20-10 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is one of the most irrelevant and meaningless of the week. The Buccaneers are locked into the NFC’s 4 seed no matter what happens here. The Falcons should honestly just throw the game in hopes for a better draft pick. They’re so bad that, even though I’m sure they’re going to try their best, it’s going to look like they’re doing just that.

Bills 31-20 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I find it impossible to talk about this game. It’s so difficult to talk about the Bills in any capacity right now. But as the days pass, we receive more and more great news about Damar Hamlin. On Friday, we received word that he can speak and called his teammates to cheer them on for this game. That is extremely powerful stuff. I think this whole situation has brought the Bills together, and this good news will give them the strength to go out and dominate for their brother. I think they will be uplifted in a way we rarely see in sports. The Patriots are a worthy opponent and could put up a fight as they play for their season, but it’ll be no match for a Buffalo team that is doing more than just playing football. It could truly be one of the greatest sights in sports history.

Vikings 26-16 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is also pretty irrelevant other than the fact that the Vikings could be the 2 seed by the end of the day. But we all know that’s not going to happen. I don’t think they’ll rest any starters, but even if they do, they’re not going to lose to a Bears team without Justin Fields that looks like they’re ready to have the #1 pick in the draft fall into their lap.

Bengals 26-13 Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is a bit of a strange circumstance. This game could have been the AFC North-decider. Regardless, I think this would have been a wash for the Bengals in any situation. The Ravens are still starting Tyler Huntley at QB, which means they are guaranteed to do absolutely nothing for sixty minutes on offense. Cincinnati is at home coming off an extremely emotional, difficult situation on Monday night. I think they’ll come out and be prepared to dominate just like I think the Bills will be. It won’t take much on either side of the ball to beat this boring, overrated Ravens team, but I’m very excited to see what they have in store. I hope Joe Burrow and the offense puts on a show as they head into the playoffs, where I will certainly be rooting for them.

Texans 20-10 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

If the Texans are smart, they’ll essentially throw this game. But I don’t see them doing that. Not because I don’t think they’re smart, but the Colts might just be smarter. If you’re Indianapolis, you have nothing to play for. You want to improve your own draft stock while hurting your division rival’s chances at bagging a generational franchise QB in April. I can totally see the Colts being the ones to throw the game and improve their own standing. I also feel like the Texans are just generally the better team, but we’re comparing trash to garbage here. I’m just excited to see this generational tank-off.

Dolphins 20-17 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Ah, yes. Skylar Thompson vs. Joe Flacco. Just how we want to be spending our Sunday afternoon. Neither of these teams deserve to make the playoffs. However, it feels like the chips are going to fall the Dolphins’ way. I’d have to believe that they can beat the Flacco-led Jets, who haven’t put together a performance worth a damn in months. I don’t trust them with any backup QB, but there is simply no excuse to lose a game in this spot at home. With this win and the Patriots loss, Miami will be in. They better hope Tua can come back in a week’s time.

Saints 17-13 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

With both of these teams being eliminated last week, this game means absolutely nothing. I feel like the Saints are playing slightly better football right now, especially defensively, and they don’t have to worry about winning tanking their draft pick, since the Eagles own it. Their momentum will carry them to a nice home win to close out the season, while the Panthers’ year ends on a whimper rather than a roar.

Steelers 13-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The only thing I can guarantee in this game is that it will be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest. I typically like the underdogs in games like this, and should have learned my lesson with the AFC North after both Steelers-Ravens games. But I just feel like the Steelers are the better-coached team. They’re honestly the better team overall. It’s hard to see them losing at home with their season on the line. But I really wanted to flip this pick. The Browns would absolutely love to play spoiler against their bitter rival, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they’re the ones to come away with the close win. I’m just trusting logic on this one. Because that always gets me so far, right?

Broncos 21-17 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Chargers largely have nothing to play for in this game. By the time it kicks off, they will see that the Ravens will have lost and that they will be locked into the 5 seed for a matchup with the AFC South winner next week. I can see them taking it a bit easy and likely resting their starters for the second half, if not the entire game. That feels like a very Chargers thing to do. The Broncos, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight since firing Nathaniel Hackett, and I can see them closing out this tumultuous year on a high note going into what will be a very strange offseason.

Eagles 28-16 Giants

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Regardless of any and all other outcomes on Sunday, the Giants are locked into the 6 seed in the NFC, and will likely be going to Minnesota next week. They have absolutely nothing to play for and will likely be resting their starters. Meanwhile, the Eagles are getting Jalen Hurts back as they try to lock up the NFC East and the 1 seed. So, being a 14-point road favorite makes a lot of sense. I don’t know if they cover that, but they should be able to win convincingly against the Giants’ B team as they head into their well-earned bye.

49ers 27-10 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The 49ers are still in play for the 1 seed, and while they likely won’t get it, the 2 seed is a plenty good consolation prize. Regardless of any of that, they are playing one of the worst teams in football in the comfort of their own home. They will end their fantastic regular season on a high note by dismantling a Cardinals team that is starting their 4th string QB yet again. Their defense might put up Wilt numbers as they lock in the 2 seed in the NFC.

Seahawks 23-20 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks will be fighting for their lives on Sunday evening. With a win and some help from the Lions, they’ll hold the 7 seed in the NFC and fall backwards into the playoffs. While the second part of that equation is a little less likely, I think Seattle will do what they have to do and get the necessary victory at home against a competitive Rams team. I don’t have much faith in the Seahawks as of late, but I think their coaching and generally superior talent should allow them to prevail in this spot. Whether or not they get the requisite assistance from Detroit in order to make the postseason is a different story.

Cowboys 27-14 Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

You know, at least the coaching staff has the decency to start Sam Howell at QB in this game. We might as well see what we have in the rookie before the eventual crapshoot of this offseason. It won’t help that he’s playing a great team that has something to fight for in this game. It’s going to be an embarrassing sight to say the least. FedEx will be packed with Cowboy fans and the team will get smacked in what we can only hope and pray is Dan Snyder’s final game as owner of the franchise. And this awful, painful season can finally come to a close… and I can finally rest.

Packers 23-20 Lions

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This was the game the NFL decided to flex into Sunday night to be the final game of the 2022 regular season. And I can’t wrap my head around it. Before this game even kicks off, the Lions will know whether or not they are eliminated depending on the results of the Seahawks game. If Seattle were to lose, then this is a winner-take-all game for the 7 seed. But if they don’t, then the Lions have nothing to play for. Unfortunately for Detroit, the latter seems far more likely. In any case, they can’t overcome the most powerful thing in the entire NFL: the script. The script has been out and about for the last month or so for the NFL’s beloved Buccaneers and Packers, and nothing is stopping both of those teams from making the playoffs. While I doubt either are capable of doing anything worth a damn once they get there, the league will do what they have to in order to ensure that their brands and ratings are thriving. The Lions are a better team than the Packers and should win this game by all means. It’s hard to go into Lambeau in a spot like this and win, but I think they can do it. Their offense can move the ball in the cold, and their defense might just show up against a Packers offense that is finding its stride. But we all know the NFL would much rather have Green Bay in the playoffs than Detroit. So the outcome has already been decided. What a sorry way for this incredible season to come to a close.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 College Football Playoff Preview and Predictions

The 2022 College Football Playoff is finally here with four worthy participants and two fascinating matchups. Here’s my preview of the teams and games before tonight’s contests to decide next Monday’s title game.

Cover photo taken from NCAA.com.

An incredibly fun, wild, and unpredictable college football season filled with upsets and amazing storylines has led to this: a classic New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff slate on Saturday night. This year’s Playoff features some familiar faces, as well as one newcomer, but the outcome of these games is anything but a forgone conclusion. Anything can happen in these final few matchups as we inch closer to crowning a champion in Los Angeles next Monday night. Before I pick Saturday night’s Playoff games, let’s take a look back on each of our contestants and how they got to this point.

#1 Georgia Bulldogs (13-0)

The defending champions have not slowed down for a second and have been the best team in college football all season long. While there was some debate in the middle of the year, the Dawgs left no doubt that they are still the cream of the crop. They enter the Playoff at 13-0 with all but one win coming by double digits and as champions of the SEC, perhaps the best conference in the sport. They moonwalked through everyone they faced this year, bookending the season with massive wins in Atlanta against Oregon and LSU. It’s only fitting that their playoff game comes in the same stadium. Georgia’s formula is nearly identical to last year’s, but the main difference is that the offense is starting to pick up the slack. The defense is still elite, but maybe not as much as the legendary 2021 unit. The other side of the ball is vastly improved with QB Stetson Bennett putting together his best season yet in his final campaign in Athens with over 3,500 total yards and 27 total touchdowns: good enough to be a Heisman finalist. The running back committee of Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton has done its thing while Brock Bowers, the best tight end in football, handles most of the pass-catching duties. The defense is still stacked with returning stars like Kelee Ringo and Christopher Smith locking down the secondary while future top 5 pick Jalen Carter mauls offensive linemen up front. The Dawgs are simply better than everyone else and can beat you in every which way. It’s extremely difficult to see a world where they don’t repeat as champions and establish themselves as the next great power in college football.

#2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0)

Coming into the 2022 season, there were many questions about whether or not Michigan could live up to their incredible 2021 which featured their first real win over Ohio State and Big Ten title since the turn of the millennium as well as a trip to the Playoff. Many people, myself included, had a lot of doubts that the Wolverines could replicate such a great year, especially with so much talent leaving for the NFL. And all this team did was have an even better season with an even better team. Michigan has looked the part of not only a Playoff team, but a Playoff contender and a true blue blood in the sport all season long. A borderline embarrassing non-conference schedule clouded what was actually a fantastic team. After JJ McCarthy won the starting QB job over Cade McNamara, it took a while for the offense to get going. But a combination of McCarthy’s development and the greatness of the backfield duo of RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards helped propel this offense to be one of the best in the country. Corum was on a Heisman pace with a near-1,500 yard season with 18 rushing touchdowns, but a knee injury sustained in the second to last game of the regular season cut his campaign short. However, Edwards has picked up the slack with two massive games against Ohio State and Purdue. It helps that the defense didn’t lose a step after losing its stars to the draft. It’s now a more balanced, deeper unit that’s even better than its predecessor. The balance and slow burn nature of the Wolverines led them to victory in every game this season, capped off by yet another dominant win over the Buckeyes. Simply put, this team has everything it takes to win a national championship. It’s just a matter of them finally climbing that peak.

#3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)

This team did not begin the season in the AP Top 25. In fact, they didn’t begin the season with a single vote. Nobody believed in first-year head coach Sonny Dykes or QB Max Duggan, who had dealt with so many health problems in his career. Nobody thought they would be anything special. And here they are, the lone first-time contestants in the CFP. TCU has been one of the best stories of the year on so many fronts. Dykes has done a tremendous job with this program, and Duggan has been as incredible of a leader and player as any program could hope for, accounting for 36 total touchdowns en route to a second-place finish in the Heisman voting, the highest of any player in the Playoff. It helps that he has been throwing to future first-rounder Quentin Johnston. They also have a tremendous run game headlined by RB Kendre Miller, and Duggan provides plenty of support with his legs as well. The Frogs had a perfect regular season filled with dramatic, thrilling wins, but unfortunately weren’t able to capture the Big 12 title after a heartbreaking OT loss to Kansas State in the title game. However, it didn’t impact their playoff standing, and they now sit in the Playoff as the 3 seed. They have a tremendous opportunity to make up for the snubs and shortcomings of past TCU teams like the ones in 2011 and 2014, and they can do so with virtually no expectations or weight on their shoulders. If they can play their style of tough, physical football, and get the ball in Max Duggan’s hands to end a game, then they can truly emerge victorious on any given afternoon against any team in the country.

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

It has been an absolute roller coaster of a season in Columbus. As if I should have expected any different. Expectations were sky high all offseason long as the Bucks returned one of the best teams in the country on paper. I fully expected this team to be one of the best Ohio State squads of my life. The returning trio of CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and TreVeyon Henderson was supposed to continue to tear college football to shreds while the vastly improved returning defense locked things down on the other side of the ball. Things ended up going a bit differently. The defense did get a huge boost as DC Jim Knowles was brought in and was able to make an immediate impact. It’s a much better unit than 2021’s, especially in the front seven, but the secondary is still a massive issue. The corners simply aren’t good enough for the scheme and make the defense worse as a whole. That really hurts, considering how great guys like Tommy Eichenberg and JT Tuimoluao have been up front. The other side of the ball has been much crazier. A hamstring injury sustained on his second catch of the year prematurely what could have been a legendary campaign for JSN. Injuries too plagued the season of Henderson, who will miss the CFP with a foot issue. CJ, however, has been just fine, throwing for 3,340 yards and 37 TDs, and that’s in large part to the weapons that have stepped up in JSN’s absence. No one has had a bigger impact than sophomore WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who replaced the consensus best WR in the sport by becoming the consensus best WR in the sport. I told everyone that Harrison would burst onto the scene in a huge way; it was pretty easy to anticipate that out of an incredible athlete like him. The Philly Freak tallied 72 catches for 1,157 yards and 12 TDs and proved to everyone just who WRU is. The other receiver who made a massive splash was fellow sophomore Emeka Egbuka, who also eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark while hauling in 9 scores. Workhorse RB Miyan Williams has largely been able to make up for Henderson’s absence, and true freshman Dallan Hayden provides a great spark off the bench. The Buckeyes boast perhaps the best offense in the country despite the injuries, but the thing they can’t seem to avoid is their own mistakes. This team shoots themselves in the foot more times than I can fathom, and it’s largely due to head-scratching schemes and playcalling from head coach Ryan Day, who has had a puzzling season to say the least. It caused many games to be way closer than they should have been, and it caused the team to lose yet again to Michigan, this time in embarrassing fashion at home. But, they now get a “second lease on life” as the coach loves to say thanks to USC’s loss in the PAC-12 title game. I could write a whole nother piece on Day’s shortcomings in 2022, but I’ll save that for later. But it should not be ignored. It will be the deciding factor in what this team is capable of doing in this Playoff. If they can truly live up to their potential and limit their own mistakes, then nobody is capable of stopping them. But at this point, I just fail to see that happening. It would only be fitting for our season to end because we couldn’t get out of our own way.

These teams are genuinely so close to one another, and I think these matchups are going to be truly fantastic to watch on Saturday night. All that’s left is to to pick the games. Here’s how I see the CFP playing out.

Michigan 24-20 TCU

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl — Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN

Vegas seems to think that this game won’t be as close as the Peach Bowl. I can’t wrap my head around that. I don’t see how this game will be anything but physical, low-scoring, and close. These teams play nearly identical styles of football with both programs priding themselves on running the ball down the opponent’s throats and physically dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I think TCU has the personnel and the talent to compete with Michigan, which most seem to disagree with. But what I can’t argue with is the fact that Michigan’s talent is generally superior on both sides. They have the better athletes and they have the better players at almost every position. I would give TCU the edge at QB, and I know that Max Duggan will never go down without a fight. I trust in his ability to keep TCU in this game from start to finish, but at some point, the brakes are going to come off. Michigan will be able to establish the run with Donovan Edwards, and I think JJ McCarthy will make the necessary throws to allow the Wolverines to separate, similar to his performance in Columbus. Moreover, I trust Michigan’s defense more than TCU’s, which got gashed in the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. They also have what it takes to be the differentiating factor in this game. As much as I would love TCU to pull the upset and emerge victorious, it just feels to unlikely. But this team will not go gentle into that good night. They will rage against the dying of the light. I just don’t think it will be enough.

Georgia 38-24 Ohio State

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl — Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ESPN

For four weeks, I have tried time and time again to convince myself that we can win this game. I just can’t bring myself to have that level of faith. In fact, I don’t even know if we can keep this close. This is simply a perfect storm for Georgia. This is their third game of the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after having won the first two by a combined score of 99-33. This is practically another home game for them. They are coming into this game scorching while the Buckeyes fell backwards into the 4 seed after being thumped yet again by their bitter rivals. And they simply matchup up perfectly with Ohio State. The Bucks offense is certainly a juggernaut, but they will not be at full strength against a UGA defense that eats people alive. The Dawgs offense is more than capable of doing damage against a battered OSU defense which hasn’t strung together many great performances as of late. As I said before, if the Bucks come out and play a perfect game by limiting their own self-inflicted mistakes and executing their offense the way they want to, then no one can stop them. When they attack defenses, they emerge victorious every time. But this is just too tough of a test, and I don’t know if these guys are up for it. I want to win so badly, but I’m not going to let that blind me from the truth. This is a good Buckeyes team that refuses to live up to expectations and has simply gone soft as the season has progressed. Their reward for their continued shortcomings is going to be a Bulldogs beatdown on Saturday night in Atlanta. And my 2022 will end on the quietest of whimpers.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 17 Picks

The penultimate slate of the regular season and final one of 2022 features some of the biggest matchups of the season that can and will have immense impacts on the playoff race.

Cover photo taken from ESPN.

Last Week: 10-6

Season Total: 151-86-2

Cowboys 24-13 Titans

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

It’s only fitting that we get such a dud as the final Thursday nighter of the season. The Titans are starting Josh Dobbs at QB for whatever reason, so this one might be even more of a blowout than I expected. You gotta feel bad for Malik Willis. The Cowboys won’t have to do much in this game to come away with a win, even on the road in primetime. They do have some injuries to key players like Tony Pollard, but they should still be able to run the ball just fine. And I trust Dak Prescott to limit his mistakes and make the necessary throws to win the game. Unless Tennessee comes out and plays their best game of the season on defense, they really don’t stand a chance. That’s just fine for them, since their season comes down to next week.

Falcons 16-13 Cardinals

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is an abhorrent game between two of my least favorite teams in the league to watch. I want absolutely nothing to do with it. It’s important for draft positioning, I suppose, but other than that, it’s a complete waste of time. So, I’m just giving you this pick and moving on to more pressing matchups.

Lions 27-24 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions are probably very happy to be back home after a stretch of tough road games. Ford Field is where they thrive, especially against a putrid team like Chicago. Their offense should be firing on all cylinders once again. But their defense still concerns me. They were absolutely shredded on the ground, and now face an even better rushing attack led by Justin Fields and David Montgomery. That’s why I think that this will be close at the very least. Fields will likely run wild in this game and keep the Bears in it with his legs. But we all know Chicago simply lacks the offensive firepower in a spot like this. They don’t have it in them to win a road game against a divisional opponent fighting for their season. The Lions know what they have to do, and I think they’ll get the job done in the end.

Chiefs 27-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Remember how scorching hot the Chiefs were in that first half in Denver a few weeks ago? Yeah, I’m seeing a repeat performance of that back home at Arrowhead. This is going against one of my patented philosophies of teams bouncing back after getting embarrassed on national TV like the Broncos were on Christmas, but that philosophy only applies to teams worth a damn. Denver is not. They are going to get smacked once again by a vastly better team. It’s going to be ugly. I can’t wait to see it.

Patriots 20-17 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Dolphins will likely be without Tua Tagovailoa in this game. If the games he missed earlier this year were any indication, Miami is rather screwed without him. I think Teddy Bridgewater is a plenty capable backup, do we think he can go into Foxboro and win this pivotal divisional clash with both teams jockeying for a playoff spot? I don’t. It’s extremely hard to put any faith in the Patriots, but I feel like they can win in a spot like this, especially at home. Teddy will have his hands full with a solid Patriots defense that flies all over the place. If he can get the ball out quick to his playmakers, the Dolphins can win. It’s just hard to bet on that happening.

Giants 22-14 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I put my faith in the Colts to keep it close on Monday night. I will not make that mistake again. I do think the Giants are much worse than the Chargers are, but I don’t see a world where the Nick Foles-led Colts go on the road and beat a playoff team. Perhaps it will be closer than their last game, but they won’t come out on top. The Giants put up a good fight last Sunday, as I presumed they would, and I think they’ll be eager to get back in the win column against a lowly Indianapolis team that looks like they’re tanking. It should be an easy one.

Eagles 27-14 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Regardless of who starts under center for the Eagles in this game, it should not be close. The Saints are a nice story and have been playing well as of late, but they haven’t faced a team like Philly in a while. To expect them to go on the road and win is foolish, even if the Birds are starting Gardner Minshew again. The backup QB did his thing last week and I’m plenty confident in his ability to lead this team to wins, even against a tough New Orleans defense. I am a bit concerned about Philadelphia’s own defense, but this is a great chance for them to bounce back against Andy Dalton and a poor Saints offense. The Eagles want to lock up that 1 seed, and I think they’ll do so emphatically.

Panthers 23-16 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I told you all on Tuesday that I am fully convinced the Panthers will win this division. It all comes down to this game. If Tampa Bay wins, then they are going to the playoffs as champions of the NFC South. Carolina needs to win their final two games in order to stop that. It is remarkably difficult to go on the road and beat a division rival, especially when they’re led by Tom Brady. But I have eyes. I have watched these two teams as of late. While the Panthers have new life and play rather inspired football, the Buccaneers have never looked more dead. I don’t think they have it in them to rise to this occasion and assert themselves to clinch the division title. I think the Panthers will be able to get after Brady and the lifeless Bucs offense, doing just enough offensively to put themselves over the top in the clutch. And this division race will come down to the final day of the season.

Commanders 23-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Every time I pick us to beat an opponent convincingly, it goes awfully. I have not learned my lesson. This one feels a bit more justifiable, though. The Browns have looked awful since Deshaun Watson has returned, not being able to muster more than 13 points on offense. Now, they go on the road and play one of the more stout defenses in the league. There has been a lot of discourse around the starting QB for the Commanders, but it doesn’t matter in this game. I assure you that our defense will be the differentiating factor. I am totally in favor of Carson Wentz starting for the rest of the year, and I don’t think he’ll have to do that much to win this one. Just make the necessary throws and let your run game and defense do the rest against a team that is absolutely reeling to stay alive in the playoff picture. It is so simple. Please don’t let me down again… please.

Jaguars 19-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Jaguars have a very easy, simple path to the playoffs in front of them. This game virtually doesn’t even matter; all they have to do is beat Tennessee next week. For that reason, I think the Jags will make the mistake of looking ahead to Week 18 and struggle a bit in this game against a clearly capable Texans team. I have no doubt in their ability to come away with a win, but this will definitely be a slugfest. People forget that the Texans’ lone win before last week came against this very Jaguars team earlier this season. Jacksonville has improved greatly since then, as has Trevor Lawrence, but I think this will be a classic close divisional game. I expect Lawrence to make the plays at the end of the game to put his team over the top. But, like I said, this game is largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

49ers 34-10 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Raiders have thrown in the towel on the 2022 season. Derek Carr has been benched in a strategic move that essentially ends his tenure in silver and black. It’s almost sad, but this franchise has nothing to blame but itself. Jarrett Stidham will be their starting QB for the last two games, and his first test is against the best defense in years. It’s not going to be pretty. San Francisco will control this game from start to finish and absolutely embarrass their former Bay Area neighbors.

Seahawks 24-20 Jets

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This is a remarkably intriguing game, even though it may not seem like one on paper. Like MIA-NE and CAR-TB, this game essentially decides the season for both of these teams as they continue to fight to sneak into the playoffs. And it feels so hard to pick. These teams match up with each other really well and have had nearly identical seasons up to this point. Great rookie classes have these teams vastly overachieving, but as the season has moved forward and injuries have racked up, they find themselves on the outside looking in. So, what gives in such an even matchup? I would say home field advantage, but the Seahawks haven’t won in Seattle since before Halloween, which is pretty staggering. I would say the run games, but neither one is particularly effective. I would say the defenses, but like everything else, they are almost identical. I would give the Jets the slight advantage due to their front seven, but both of these defenses have found themselves struggling in recent weeks, and it’s hard to put faith in either one. So, it comes down to the offenses. Do you trust Mike White or Geno Smith more? It’s a very even split. With both of these teams spiraling downwards so steeply, I’d be better off flipping a coin for this pick. But I’m taking the Seahawks because I trust their coaching and their offense just a tiny bit more than I can trust New York’s. The tiniest bit more.

Vikings 23-20 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This has been one of the most impossible picks of the season. I haven’t stopped going back and forth all week. Vegas sees the Packers as the better team in this game, and that’s not a completely irresponsible take. Green Bay has strung together some nice performances to keep their season alive. Any more losses and they’re done. They need to play their best game of the year by a solid margin against a team that embarrassed them in Week 1. At home in a massive spot like this, it’s hard to envision them not coming out and doing just that. But will it be enough? The Vikings have been the chosen ones of this season, winning every game by the skin of their teeth and improbably coming out on top week after week. I don’t know when their luck is going to run out, but I don’t think it will be here. It is immensely difficult to go to Lambeau and beat the Packers in a spot like this where Green Bay has infinitely more to play for. But I just can’t pick against the Vikings while they continue to pull out win after win. I genuinely think the Packers will win this game, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Minnesota is not quite yet out of miracles.

Chargers 26-14 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The battle for Los Angeles looked infinitely better on paper in the offseason than it is right now. What should have been a potential Super Bowl preview has been reduced to another easy win for the Chargers. I do think this game can be fun though. I always enjoy watching both teams play in their own stadium. But the Chargers are infinitely better than the Rams, and I don’t see them getting complacent after clinching a playoff spot last week. They won’t have to do too much to assert themselves. If Justin Herbert continues playing lights out and their defense continues their dominant ways against a Rams offense that has looked solid but we all know is awful, they will win without breaking a sweat.

Ravens 13-10 Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Nothing like Steelers-Ravens in primetime late in the season with so much on the line. This is football heritage. We still don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be playing in this game for the Ravens, but in my opinion, that is largely irrelevant. Just a few weeks ago, we saw this matchup in Pittsburgh, and Baltimore came away with a convincing win without Lamar. At home in primetime, why can’t they do the same? Well, it’s hard to beat any team twice. It’s even harder to beat your bitter rival twice. At the very least, this game will be extremely low-scoring and close, dominated by both defenses as the lowly offenses struggle. I’m picking the Ravens because I believe their defense is ever so slightly better, and I can see them making life hell for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. If Tyler Huntley and Baltimore’s offense puts together just enough good offensive possessions, they will win. A Justin Tucker walkoff field goal feels inevitable in a spot like this.

Bengals 30-27 Bills

Monday, 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

There aren’t many games that I’ve been looking more forward to this season than this clash of giants in primetime. Getting this matchup after the Rose Bowl on Monday evening is better than any Christmas present. These are two Goliaths of their conference and the league as a whole, and feasibly could have been the AFC Championship Game last year. Perhaps it’s a preview of this year’s title game. In any case, I just know that this is going to be a classic between two of the best teams in football. It’s easy to say that it could go either way, but that’s the truth of it. The spread is paper thin for a reason. These teams match up perfectly with one another with each boasting star-studded offenses led by their stellar young QBs in Joe Burrow and Josh Allen and superstar WR1s in Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs. Both defenses are going through it with injuries but are still plenty capable. While I like Cincinnati’s offense more than Buffalo’s, I give the edge to the Bills’ defense over the Bengals’. It makes this game so hard to pick. But I have to give the edge to Burrow and the Bengals at home. These guys simply win every massive game they play in. They have been much better than the Bills in the last 3 months or so. And I trust Burrow more than I trust Allen. He is far more cautious with the ball, and he has more weapons at his disposal. The Bills will not back down, and their offense will certainly do their thing against a battered Cincy defense, but I just don’t see a world where the Bengals lose a game of this magnitude at home. Their playmakers will do what they have to do down the stretch to set up a late win in an incredible primetime environment. It’s going to be a sight to behold. I can’t wait for it.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 16 Picks

The Christmas weekend slate is more naughty than nice, but this week still has plenty of potential with some pivotal matchups as the playoff picture continues to take shape.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 13-3

Season Total: 141-80-2

Jaguars 23-16 Jets

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

These teams are trending in completely different directions. With Zach Wilson starting again for the Jets, they are going nowhere fast and crashing out of the playoffs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are primed to make a push for the division title, and a massive win on primetime would go a long way in getting there. This is going to be a very tough road test for them against a stout New York defense, but I have the utmost faith in Trevor Lawrence to get the job done. He has been one of the best QBs in the league in the last couple of months, and I think he’s going to put together another great game en route to a victory. He might not put up the biggest numbers in the world, but it won’t be necessary. There’s a better chance than not that Zach Wilson just hands Jacksonville this game on a silver platter.

Bills 27-19 Bears

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Bears have been the same team for several weeks now. They’re competitive thanks to Justin Fields’ dominance and they play everyone close, but they never win. That’s pretty much what I expect to see happen again on Sunday. The Bills are definitely good enough to put away a team like Chicago early, but for some reason, the Bears love hanging around, making them such a difficult team to bet. But there’s no way they win this game, so that makes the straight up pick significantly easier.

Browns 16-10 Saints

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Have you guys seen the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday? It’s going to be frigid, snowy, and ugly. Just take the under in this game and call it a day. In conditions like that, I have to trust the more physical team with a better run game, which is very clearly the Browns. The Saints can definitely push teams around on their best day, but they don’t have many of those nowadays. I do think this game will be extremely competitive as both teams have something to play for, with the Browns still in Wild Card contention and the Saints just a game out of first place in the division. I just like the Browns defense more, and at home, in the awful conditions, I just see Cleveland running it down New Orleans’ battered defense’s throat all game long to eke out a close, hard-fought victory.

Titans 23-17 Texans

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is gross. I want no part of this. I was this close to picking the Texans to win this game, considering how close they played Tennessee in their first matchup. While the Titans keep falling apart, I just don’t think they’re going to stoop that low. This is going to be a tough battle from start to finish for both teams, and I wouldn’t really be shocked if the Texans came away with the win. I just find it too difficult to pick against Tennessee in a spot like this. They need a win desperately, and this is a golden opportunity for them to get one at home.

Chiefs 31-20 Seahawks

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

On paper, this might seem like it could be a super entertaining shootout at Arrowhead. While I think plenty of points will be scored, “shootout” seems like a bit of a stretch. While I hate the Chiefs pass defense, the Seahawks are struggling mightily on offense. This is a golden opportunity for them to get back on track, but it’s not easy to do that on the road against Kansas City. Regardless of how their offense performs, I just don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. He has had to carry them on his back in recent weeks, but I think they can get it going again at home after a couple of tough road games. If Seattle looks like the team we saw a few weeks ago, then they have a great chance at pulling this upset. I just don’t see that happening in a spot like this.

Vikings 26-23 Giants

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Vikings let everyone hang around. They are incapable of winning a game convincingly. So this will naturally be close. But they are the better team and will win this game late, as they always do.

Bengals 24-20 Patriots

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Everyone, including me, thinks this game is going to be close. But I really don’t have a reason why. Going on the road to play the Patriots no longer poses the threat it did when I was growing up, and while their defense is very solid, they aren’t particularly good on offense. The Bengals are great on both sides of the ball and are one of the most complete teams in the league. By all means, they should blow the Pats out of the water. But going on the road in this league is difficult, no matter who you play. After the embarrassing loss last week, it only feels right that New England will hang around in this game. I don’t think they have it in them to get over the top and pull off what would be a mammoth upset to drastically alter the trajectory of the seasons of both of these teams, but they’re not going to go down without a fight.

Lions 20-17 Panthers

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to predict. Once again, the Lions are on the road against a feisty defense in a matchup that they could easily lose. Last week, it was the late-game execution of their offense which got the job done, and I don’t see why they can’t do that again. But what I’m looking forward to seeing in this game is their defensive performance. The Panthers couldn’t run the ball whatsoever last week, putting the game in the hands of Sam Darnold, which was obviously a disaster. If the Lions can replicate that, then this one really shouldn’t be close. The problem is that the Lions have the seventh worst run defense in the league. Carolina will be able to establish the run game and run their offense, so it will come down to whichever offense out-executes the other. It’s hard to pick against the Lions in that regard. Moreover, I just can’t pick Sam Darnold again. I do think the Panthers have a great shot to win this one, but I learned my mistake last week and will not make it.

Ravens 13-10 Falcons

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Ravens are still without Lamar Jackson, meaning Tyler Huntley will start once again in what should be one of the uglier games of the year on Sunday in Baltimore. There might not be 200 combined passing yards in this game between Huntley and Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder. It’s going to be a lot of running and a lot of defense for sixty minutes; think of a repeat of the Broncos-Titans game from a few months ago. Like the Browns-Saints game, I think this comes down to the better run game and defense, which both lie with the Ravens. With JK Dobbins back, their run game can hurt you in a multitude of ways, and I don’t see a rookie QB being one to break their defense. It’s going to be close and a disaster to watch, but I have no doubt that Baltimore will pull this out.

49ers 23-10 Commanders

Saturday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

This is probably our toughest game of the season. We were able to go on the road and beat the undefeated Eagles in primetime, but this feels different. Many think the 49ers are better than Philly, and playing their defense is a recipe for disaster, especially with #4 under center. I can already see the multitude of turnovers that he’s going to commit as the offense stays in quicksand for sixty minutes. It feels like San Francisco won’t really have to do that much on either side of the ball to come away with a win here. They’ll have their hands full with our defense, but they might put up more points with their own defense, so it simply will not matter. My only hope is that we can bounce back from this inevitable loss well and close out the season with two strong games at home. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Eagles 27-24 Cowboys

Saturday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

I know what you’re thinking. How can I pick Gardner Minshew to beat the Cowboys on the road? Well, my answer is pretty simple. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFL across the board, so a backup QB with multiple years in the system can probably step in and execute pretty well. Also, let’s not act like Minshew is a bum. He’s a solid player and he can certainly operate this offense effectively. The Eagles know what’s on the line; they clinch the division and 1 seed with a win. They’re going to come out and play inspired football on both sides of the ball despite the injury to Jalen Hurts. Moreover, this just feels like such a typical Cowboys loss, especially when you consider the trajectory of this team right now. They struggled mightily with the Texans at home and got embarrassed by the Jags last week. People might think they’re going to seize this opportunity to beat a backup QB and keep on pushing for a division title. But that’s not going to happen. Minshew won’t have to do much as his run game and defense carries the Birds to a win and a clinching of the best record in the NFC.

Steelers 23-20 Raiders

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network

The tragedy of Franco Harris’ death right before this game can’t be put into words. This game would have been a celebration of one of the most iconic moments in football history as the 50th anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, and Harris would’ve rightfully been honored very well. I’m sure the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh will do everything they can to honor him in a different way. It’s truly an immeasurable loss, and he will be severely missed. It’s hard to even talk about this game because of that. I think Pittsburgh would have been my pick regardless. I like the way they looked last week in Carolina, especially defensively. I do think they will struggle with defending Davante Adams, but if they can replicate their performance against the run to limit Josh Jacobs, then all they have to do is execute their offense with little to no mistakes, and they’ll be fine, regardless of who starts under center.

Dolphins 30-20 Packers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is certainly the best game on Christmas, but the bar is extremely low. This isn’t even that good of a game on paper. By all means, the Dolphins should have their way with the Packers. Their passing game should thrive back at home against a porous defense, and their own defense shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Green Bay’s mixed bag of an offense. I’m expecting a massive day from the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo against the softest secondary they’ve played in a month.

Broncos 17-16 Rams

Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, CBS

It’s really a cruel joke that the NFL’s Christmas present to its fans is this game. Nobody wants any part of this disgusting game between two of the worst teams in the league. This is one of those picks that I just drop here and move on. The only thing I know is that Baker Mayfield is going to struggle mightily against that Broncos defense. That’s the key matchup in this game, and that’s why I’m taking Denver to win.

Buccaneers 24-9 Cardinals

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

There’s really not much to say here. The Cardinals are starting their third string QB in Trace McSorley in primetime against a tough Bucs defense. Despite the memes, everyone knows he’s not very good. It’s hard to envision another 3rd stringer beating Tom Brady this season. Even in a tough road environment in primetime, I think the Buccaneers will dominate from start to finish. They need to string together some good performances if they want to hold onto this division lead, and this is a great chance for them to strengthen their grip at the top. I’d be truly shocked if they let this one slip.

Chargers 23-20 Colts

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Like the Texans and Bears, the Colts are a team that plays everyone close for some reason, but never comes away with wins. Giving up the largest comeback in the history of professional football after their star RB suffered a season-ending injury last week can’t be good for their morale. Perhaps that’s why they’re making yet another QB change, this time starting Nick Foles over Matt Ryan. I don’t know what to expect from Foles in the year of our lord 2022, but I know Indianapolis has it in them to compete at home, and I know that a Team like the Chargers will certainly let them hang around. But I’m not picking against LA right now. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, and nobody wants to see them now that they’re getting healthy. Justin Herbert will make the plays he needs to for the Chargers to win this game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 15 Picks

The final month of the regular season begins with an action-packed slate on paper featuring some pivotal playoff scenarios. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Cover photo taken from Flipboard.

Last Week: 8-5

Season Total: 128-77-2

49ers 23-14 Seahawks

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

These two teams are simply going in two completely different directions. The Seahawks have been trending downwards for a month now, and the 49ers are still flying high, even with Brock Purdy at QB. The rookie has been battling illness all week, but should be good to go in this game. But it frankly doesn’t matter. The Niners defense is the difference in every single game they play, and that will prove to be the case again on Thursday night. They’re going to suffocate the Seahawks offense that simply hasn’t been itself in recent weeks. Even in a tough road environment in primetime between division rivals, I don’t see a scenario where this game is even close.

Vikings 26-23 Colts

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, NFL Network

This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to analyze and preview. I never have any idea what to make of either of these teams. With the Colts coming off a bye, I think they can certainly compete and hang around for a while in this game. But the Vikings coming home after their tough loss last week should give them the juice they need to come out on top. I don’t have faith in them to win any game super convincingly, so I’d probably take the Colts to cover here, but I think the superior offensive talent of Minnesota will put them over the top.

Browns 19-16 Ravens

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NFL Network

I’m probably a fool for this, but it’s simply what my gut is telling me. I picked (and bet) against the Ravens last week in this exact same scenario and it came back to bite me. They’re once again short underdogs on the road against a rival with Tyler Huntley starting at QB. This time, I actually feel slightly better about picking against them. The Browns are simply better than the Steelers, and this will likely be a tougher environment for Huntley and the offense to play in. They’re not facing the world’s toughest run defense, which is good news for them, but I just have a feeling that this is the game where Cleveland finally puts it together with Deshaun Watson in the lineup. Baltimore’s defense is not invincible by any means, and while I don’t think the Browns are going to light up the scoreboard, I think they’re going to play their most complete game with Watson so far to pull out a late win.

Bills 24-17 Dolphins

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network

This is another game that just feels weird. I feel like the Bills should absolutely dominate this game, and I’m expecting next to nothing out of Tua and the Dolphins offense. But no one else is either. So maybe they’ll come out and play the Bills close, or even lead for the majority of this game. People are jumping ship on Miami after last week’s loss, so they’re motivated to show out. This is a perfect opportunity to do so and suddenly jump back into the race for the division. That being said, I just don’t see them winning this game. Buffalo is far too solid, especially at home, and their defense is playing much better. I think they should control this game for the most part, and Josh Allen will make enough plays to put them over the top. Think a repeat of last week’s game against New York with just a little bit more scoring.

Eagles 31-13 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Eagles might have their backups in this game by the third quarter. I’m pretty sure they could play the entire game and Philly would still win by multiple scores. As long as Justin Fields gets his stats in, I’m good.

Saints 23-20 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is another strange game on paper. Desmond Ridder is making his first start at QB for the Falcons, which has been long overdue, and I actually feel good about the rookie’s chances. I just think going on the road to the Superdome makes for one of the toughest environments for a rookie QB to make his first start. At the same time, I feel nothing remotely positive about the Saints. Yes, they’re coming off a bye and yes they’re coming off a tough primetime loss before that, but this team hasn’t shown us any indication that they can play a complete 60 minute game and come out with a win, especially against a frisky team like Atlanta. I really want to pick the Falcons, but something’s just telling me not to. Maybe the Saints defense puts together a great game against a rookie QB. Maybe Andy Dalton takes advantage of a porous secondary. Somehow, someway, I just see the Saints coming out on top.

Lions 27-24 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is by far the most fascinating game of the week. It’s one of the most fascinating games of the year. Which is really crazy considering it’s Lions-Jets. Neither of these teams can afford a loss if they want to stay afloat in their respective Wild Card races, and for that reason, this game is going to be played at an extremely high level. It’s going to be very physical, but I think it’s also going to be pretty high-scoring. These two offenses can let it fly, and while the Jets boast a solid secondary, they can definitely get pieced up by a WR room as deep as Detroit’s. Moreover, the Lions have proven me wrong about being able to play on the road. They no longer back down from the challenge of playing in the great outdoors, and I think they have what it takes to beat a great defense on the road. I know the Lions passing defense is atrocious, and for that reason, I think Mike White and the Jets offense will let it fly as well, but if this becomes a shootout, I trust the Lions ever so slightly more. This team is playing some of the best football in the league, and with the Jets limping after last week’s beatdown by the Bills, I think Detroit is going to take the game over with their offense and pull away another impressive win to get to .500 and right in the thick of the playoff picture.

Panthers 22-19 Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Does a 3-point win for the Panthers not seem like the most obvious possible outcome for this game? They’re coming home after a huge win last week in Seattle, and they know they have to keep on winning in order to stay alive in the NFC South. The Steelers, meanwhile, have absolutely nothing to play for, and might have to start Mitch Trubisky again as Kenny Pickett is still in concussion protocol. That’s never a good sign, especially against this stout Panthers defense. I just love the way Carolina is playing lately, and I think the crowd in Charlotte is going to be electric as their team continues this improbable playoff push.

Cowboys 26-17 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

A lot of people, including Vegas, think the Jaguars are going to play the Cowboys very close in this game. I think that argument has a lot of merit considering the play the team has been playing lately and how stellar Trevor Lawrence has been in the last couple of months. But Jacksonville is simply too up and down to trust to put together back to back great performances. Moreover, they tend to struggle against elite defenses, which is just what Dallas has. The Cowboys are probably eager to show the country that they’re not the team that just struggled to beat the worst team in football, so I expect a typical performance out of them on both sides of the ball, utilizing their run game and suffocating defense to come away with a comfortable road win.

Chiefs 30-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I know the Texans were very competitive on the road last week against a great team, but let’s be real. The Chiefs are much better than the Cowboys are. Last week was cute and all, but there’s no way Houston puts together a similar game against a vastly better team. Their defense actually plays solid ball at home, but I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to piece them up all game long and make them look like the typical Texans we’re used to seeing.

Broncos 20-17 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This might turn out to be the Backup QB Bowl as Colt McCoy will be under center for the rest of the season in Arizona after Kyler Murray’s injury and Brett Rypien might have to fill in for the concussed Russell Wilson. Regardless of who starts for Denver, they’re easily my pick in this game. They put together their best offensive game of the season last week, and I think they can keep that going against another bad defense this week, especially at home. It won’t take much to score on this Arizona team. As long as their defense bounces back from last week’s embarrassment, I think Denver should be able to hold off the Cards and pull it out in the end.

Raiders 27-23 Patriots

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This feels like such a great spot to buy low on the Raiders and sell high on the Patriots. These are two teams coming off polar opposite primetime performances; Vegas got shocked last Thursday night and New England looked very solid on Monday night. So, I’m fading the Pats. It just makes sense. I don’t think they’re as good as the team we saw on Monday night. Their offensive injuries are starting to stack up, and I simply don’t trust them to win another road game on the west coast, even if they stayed out there this week. I can’t believe I’m continuing to put faith in the Raiders, but I still like their offense and I think they can move the ball against this Patriots defense. Davante Adams needs to step up and bounce back from going ghost last week, and I think he can do just that. Combine that with a vintage Josh Jacobs performance, and the Raiders will simply outscore the Patriots to win.

Chargers 24-20 Titans

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

I honestly don’t know if this game will be this close. I’m putting some respect on the Titans, but there’s really no reason to do that. They have looked awful in the last month, and they inspire no confidence on either side of the ball. Their only bright spot is Derrick Henry, but I don’t think he can make up for this team’s shortcomings on his own. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a massive win on Sunday night and are trending in a completely different direction than Tennessee is. If their defense can put together another solid performance, then the offense will simply do the rest. This lowkey feels like a great place to fade the Chargers, but I’m not going to do it. I’m going to stick with my gut and the fact that they’re playing better football right now.

Bengals 23-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Like so many other scenarios this week, this feels like a great place to buy low on the Buccaneers. They got absolutely humiliated last week and have a great chance to come home and make amends. I’d take them to cover for that reason. But I just cannot pick them to win this game outright. Even at home, the Bengals are simply too tough of a test. Their defense is playing too well to lose to this anemic Bucs offense. The potential loss of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd might hinder Cincy’s offense in this game, but if Joe Burrow has to force feed Ja’Marr Chase for sixty minutes, I think they’ll still be just fine. I think this will come down to whoever plays better defense, and at this point, it’s much easier to trust the Bengals.

Commanders 24-13 Giants

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Here it is. One of our biggest games in years. Our first home Sunday nighter in five years. They flexed us in here for a reason. It’s a real chance to separate ourselves in the Wild Card race. A shot at revenge for the vaunted tie from two weeks ago. This might as well be a playoff game. FedEx is going to be electric, and this team is going to play their best game of the year. I just know it. The defense is going to show up and show out against a Giants offense that got smothered last week. The offense is going to put together some nice drives and do what they have to do to win. Terry McLaurin is going to light up the box score. Brian Robinson Jr. is going to run through people. I can’t wait to see it. I haven’t been this confident in the fact that we’re going win in a very long time. So, this will probably end with me in shambles.

Packers 27-17 Rams

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

When the schedule was first released, this looked like it would be one of the best games of the year. A potential playoff preview on Monday night at iconic Lambeau Field. Now, it’s a game that absolutely nobody wants to watch. Baker Mayfield will get the start for the Rams (imagine telling that to someone in April), which is not a good thing despite the feel-good nature of last Thursday’s win. He’s going to look like the typical Baker in a very tough environment. Don’t be surprised if he winds up with three picks. The Packers aren’t great and don’t inspire much confidence on either side of the ball, but they’re at home off a bye against a team that’s absolutely dreadful on both sides of the ball. I think they’re going to look just fine and win easily.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 14 Picks

After my first ever undefeated week, I feel pretty good about predicting the upcoming slate of somewhat boring and average matchups.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 14-0-1 (!!!)

Season Total: 120-72-2

Raiders 27-17 Rams

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

The Rams are a complete mess at QB right now. It doesn’t matter whether it’s John Wolford or Bryce Perkins or even Baker Mayfield. They aren’t going to win this game. The Raiders are playing great ball lately and are seeing their fourth straight win. If they stick to their bread and butter of feeding Josh Jacobs and letting Davante Adams dismantle opposing corners, they’ll be fine. Jalen Ramsey is obviously a tough test, but Adams has toasted him before, and I think he’ll do it again on Thursday night. As long as Vegas’ defense does its job against an anemic Rams offense, the Raiders should win comfortably.

Bills 24-20 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Vegas thinks this is going to be a complete wash for the Bills, and I don’t get it. For starters, the Jets beat this Bills team when they had Zach Wilson starting just a month ago. Division games are always close, especially when two great defenses are at work. And Buffalo will still be without Von Miller against a team that can run the ball pretty well. New York will certainly be competitive in this game unless Mike White turns into a bum, which I don’t see happening. If he can keep feeding Garrett Wilson and the RBs do their thing, then they definitely have a fighting chance. I don’t think it’ll be enough to win in a very tough road environment, though. Josh Allen has been playing better football in recent weeks, and that’s all the Bills need to win football games. I’m excited to see how they look, but regardless of what that is, I think it’ll be good enough to come away with this key victory.

Bengals 26-23 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

One of the great mysteries of the NFL is how Joe Burrow has never beaten the Cleveland Browns. They just have the young star QB’s number for some reason. However, all good things must come to an end. The Browns should look better on Sunday than they did last week, assuming that Deshaun Watson has gotten his jitters and rust out of the way. But this is going to be an infinitely tougher test. The Bengals are playing some of the best football in the league right now, with both sides of the ball firing on all cylinders. Cleveland has simply looked average at best on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and trusting them to keep it close (and cover), but I don’t see them shutting down Burrow and company again, especially with Ja’Marr Chase back this time.

Cowboys 38-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Not talking about this one. There’s a reason this spread is straight out of college football Next!

Lions 30-27 Vikings

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions are my absolute favorite pick of the week. This is just a perfect storm for them and everything I have been praising them for over the last month or so. They’re at home on a hot streak in which their offense has been scorching hot and their defense has been better. Jared Goff is great at home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been unstoppable. The RBs are doing their thing. This could be Jameson Williams’ coming out party as well. I do think their defense will have their hands full with the Vikings’ star-studded offense, but I find it damn near impossible to pick Minnesota in this game. They struggled mightily with Detroit in their first matchup, and that one was in Minneapolis. The Vikes have been extremely lucky in one-score games this year, and maybe a regression to the mean is in order. I think the Lions are simply going to outscore the Vikings in this one and keep the winning ways alive.

Jaguars 22-16 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I didn’t have many upset picks planned this week, but I feel better about the Jaguars than any other underdog on Sunday. They should be thanking their lucky stars that Trevor Lawrence is ok after last week’s scary sight. The Jags still got smacked, but that actually makes me feel better about picking them here. I think they’re eager to bounce back, especially in a game against a division rival. It’s going to be a tough road environment, but the Titans simply haven’t shown me anything to like as a team in recent weeks. As I said on Tuesday, this team doesn’t really do anything well anymore. At least the Jags can move the ball on offense. If their defense steps up and limits Derrick Henry, then I feel great about their chances of winning.

Eagles 24-13 Giants

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This kind of goes against my philosophy of road division games, but it feels warranted in a situation like this. The Giants are solid, but the Eagles are simply miles better than they are. I don’t see how New York musters up enough on defense to slow down this offensive juggernaut in Philly, and I think the Eagles defense should be able to limit big plays and keep the Giants at arms length. It could certainly be closer than this, but I just don’t see that happening. Philadelphia is an infinitely better team.

Steelers 13-10 Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is all sorts of gross. The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson in this game, but even if he was playing, I think this would still be my exact pick. Baltimore is just so inept offensively, running a 1960s offense and failing completely at it. It’s obviously not their fault that they have no WRs, but it doesn’t matter. They’re not going to be able to get anything going against this stout Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will certainly struggle on offense as well, but that’s simply in their DNA. However, I think they have what it takes to get the job done at home. They’ll make one or two more plays down the stretch to win this game.

Chiefs 23-10 Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

The Broncos are an unwatchable disgusting mess of a football team. Patrick Mahomes has never lost a road game to a divisional opponent. It’s a pretty simple calculus, guys. I do think Denver’s defense will stifle the Chiefs a little bit, but it won’t be enough, and it will not matter. There is no way in the world that they can win this game, or even keep it close. Like the Eagles pick, this kind of goes against my typical philosophies, but it’s totally warranted.

49ers 16-13 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

In the preseason, this was my pick for one of the NFC Divisional Round games. A lot has changed since then, but that’s still entirely possible. But it won’t be at all what I envisioned. The 49ers are down to their rookie 3rd string QB in former Iowa State star and 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. Purdy looked solid last week when he was thrown into the fire, but this is going to be a much tougher test. The Bucs defense will make life hell for him. The good news is that the 49ers defense is the best in the league by a longshot, and they will make life even worse for Tom Brady and Tampa’s offense. I mean, this is a unit that had 3 points in 55 minutes against the Saints. The Saints! San Francisco’s defense should have a field day, but the game will be close regardless considering the state of their offense. So, this game comes down to the superior defense. Pretty easy pick in that case, isn’t it? It’s going to be ugly and low scoring, but the Niners will certainly come out on top.

Seahawks 24-14 Panthers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This game feels like a total trap with the Seahawks only being favored by 4. I saw that and thought to jump all over it, but it just feels… wrong. Vegas definitely knows something we don’t. So, I won’t touch that line with a ten-foot pole. However, I will pick Seattle to win comfortably. They’re back at home against a Panthers team that has been solid and competitive, but not on the same level as the Seahawks. The loss of Kenneth Walker will hurt their offense, but they can throw the ball all the live long day. I think they’ll do just that and win comfortably.

Dolphins 30-20 Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Once again, I’m abandoning my philosophy here and simply taking the much better team to win. The Chargers just aren’t right, and their offense is pretty tough to watch while their defense gets toasted week in and week out. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses in football. They just got stifled by the best defense in the league, so they’re probably eager to put on a show in primetime. Their defense might struggle a little bit with Justin Herbert, but it might not matter if their offense lights up the scoreboard. I just don’t think LA has it in them to beat a team like Miami right now, even at home and in primetime.

Cardinals 23-17 Patriots

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

This game is so weird. It’s probably the biggest coinflip of the week. I don’t like what either of these teams are doing, and neither of them inspire confidence to win any given game on any given day. So I’m just going to take the Cardinals for the boring Raza reasons of them being at home in primetime and off a bye. I don’t exactly think their defense poses a threat, but neither does the Patriots offense. All the Cards have to do is limit their mistakes and force feed DeAndre Hopkins and James Conner, and they should be able to win. But, knowing this team, they’re probably going to fail disastrously and hilariously.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 provides the most stacked schedule of the entire season with incredible matchups and fantastic storylines all over the place. Here’s how I see this inevitably awesome slate playing out.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 11-5

Season Total: 106-72-1

Bills 23-20 Patriots

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

I really wanted to pick the Patriots outright here, seeing as though all signs point towards them winning this game. Both teams are equally rested from playing on Thanksgiving, and New England looked arguably better than Buffalo did. Now, the Pats come home for this massive showdown with a ton of implications for the division and the playoffs. I think Bill Belichick is going to have his guys ready, but as much as I want to trust that, I can’t pick Josh Allen and the Bills to lose this game. They need to come out and make a statement, and I think that’s exactly what they’re going to do. Buffalo’s defense will need to step up and play some of their best ball of the season, and without Von Miller, it’s going to be very tough. It’s going to be a slog for a while, and the Patriots will probably lead this one for the most part, but I think the Bills offense will get going in the second half to come back and steal a win in Foxboro.

Steelers 17-14 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

These teams are on par with each other in my mind. I’d typically pick the home team in a situation like this, but I think the Steelers are simply trending in a much better direction than the Falcons are. Pittsburgh’s young pieces are finally starting to gel and the defense is back to playing very well now that they’re healthy again, and I simply don’t see how Marcus Mariota and the Falcons’ anemic offense is going to put up enough points on them. The Steelers offense should do just enough, regardless of whether Najee Harris plays or not, to win this game.

Packers 24-21 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

As much as I would love to pick the Bears in this game, predicting Aaron Rodgers to lose to Chicago is simply sacrilegious. Justin Fields should be back for the Bears, which makes them the better team, but until they show me that they can actually beat the Packers, I won’t predict them to. If Fields is fully healthy and plays like his usual self, then Chicago should win this one fairly easily. This is their best opportunity to prove me wrong.

Lions 27-24 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This may look like a gross matchup on paper, but I think this game is going to be so much fun. These are two young teams that are seemingly starting to get it going, and I think there’s going to be points galore in Detroit in a very exciting contest. I’m not sure how the Jaguars are a road favorite against a Lions team that has been so solid at home, especially ATS, but I do understand the sentiment. Jacksonville looked really great last week, and Trevor Lawrence is doing his thing. But, the same can be said about the Lions. They almost beat the Bills, and we know how dangerous they are at Ford Field. I think their prowess at home is enough to put them over the top in a game like this against an opponent that’s on their level. It wouldn’t shock me if it goes the other way, seeing as though the Lions always find a way to lose games like this. Regardless, I’m actually really excited to see it play out.

Vikings 21-20 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

It’s strange to see a game like this mean so much at this point in the season, but here we are. This one is going to be extremely impactful on the playoff races in both conferences. The Vikings squeaked by for a win yet again last week, while the Jets are flying high after Mike White’s heroics last week and the continued lights-out play by their defense. I actually think this is a super solid matchup for the Jets. I think their defensive front will be able to lock up Dalvin Cook, and I think Sauce Gardner can hold his own against Justin Jefferson (in what’s probably the best WR-CB battle of the season). But it feels too difficult to pick against the Vikings at home coming off a mini-bye, especially with 1PM Kirk Cousins being activated. They should be able to do just enough offensively towards the end of this game to snatch another victory out of the jaws of defeat and inch closer to a division title.

Commanders 20-17 Giants

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

It has been six years since the last meaningful Washington-New York game this late in the season. There is so much on the line on Sunday in East Rutherford when it comes to the Wild Card race. Neither team can afford a loss, and a win puts someone firmly in position to lock up a playoff spot in the coming weeks. These teams are trending in completely opposite directions; the Giants are coming off a mini-bye after being handled by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which was their third loss in their last four games, and the Commanders are coming off their sixth win in seven weeks on Sunday against Atlanta. So, it’s no secret why Washington is favored in this one, even on the road. Vegas is right. We are the better team and there is no excuse to lose this game, even on the road. We can effectively stop everything that the Giants do well offensively, and if our offense does its job and limits its mistakes, then we will win this game. I think it all boils down to which QB loses the game for their team. I want to believe it won’t be Taylor Heinicke. And I really, really want to be proven right.

Eagles 22-17 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game looks a lot better on paper than it will actually be. I think it’ll be close, but it will be pretty ugly and run-centric from start to finish. That says a lot about these two defenses, which are both great. I think both offenses are capable of doing great things, but not in a matchup like this. The two fantastic front sevens will control this game, with both teams desperate to establish the run. So, it’ll probably come down to whoever can make the most plays through the air. There’s no doubt who the better passing team is here. The Titans have certainly found something in rookie WR Treylon Burks, but the Eagles have plenty more weapons and the vastly better QB in Jalen Hurts. At home, they will make all the plays necessary in the passing game to win this one late.

Ravens 19-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams annoy me, so the fact that they’re playing against each other this week really annoys me. The Ravens are simply the better team by a longshot, so they will obviously win this game. But it’s going to be ugly and there will not be a lot of points put on the board thanks to the level of both defenses. So, my two pieces of advice are: don’t watch this game and take the under.

Browns 27-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Deshaun Watson is back in the NFL and back in Houston. Certainly this wasn’t deliberate on the part of the league! Regardless, Watson should be thankful that he’s getting such an easy tune-up in his first game back. Houston will definitely be hostile for him on Sunday, but the Texans themselves certainly won’t be. He should have a field day against their dreadful defense, and the Browns will likely look like the great team that they have the potential to be.

Seahawks 24-13 Rams

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

It’s no surprise that more money is coming in on the Seahawks than any other team this week. Everyone knows the Rams will be completely overmatched in this game despite being somewhat competitive last week. Yes, the Seahawks looked absolutely brutal defensively on Sunday, but Los Angeles doesn’t pose any sort of offensive threat. This is a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Seattle’s defense, and their offense should have an absolute field day once again. Even in a road environment against a divisional opponent, the Seahawks should dominate this one.

49ers 20-17 Dolphins

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

What a gorgeous matchup this is. Two of the best teams in the NFL that play nearly identical football facing off in a massive matchup and potential Super Bowl preview in December. The student in Mike McDaniel vs. the teacher in Kyle Shanahan: who can execute the system better? It’s a difficult question to answer. I’m picking the 49ers for a few reasons. The first of which is their defense, which is miles better than any other in the NFL right now. Even against a phenomenal Dolphins offense, I think they’ll be able to keep things under control. The second reason is what I mentioned earlier: Kyle Shanahan is the teacher. He should know all the ins and outs of Mike McDaniel and his system, since Shanahan is the one who started it. The final reason is the most basic, Raza reason of all time, which is the 49ers being at home. But the first two are my main rationale behind picking the Niners here. I just think it’s a great matchup for them, and Miami needs to prove to me that they’re up for this incredibly difficult test.

Bengals 30-27 Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Here it is. Perhaps the game of the year in a rematch of last year’s regular season thriller and playoff classic. Two of the best QBs in the NFL facing off in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Two of the best weapons in football on display in Travis Kelce and Ja’Marr Chase. Two fantastic offenses and two improving, stout defenses facing off against one another. This game is certainly going to live up to the hype, and it might exceed it somehow. I’d typically be wrestling with myself in making this pick, but I actually feel very confident in the Bengals to win this game, and I even think they should be favored here. For starters, they’re at home. They got DJ Reader back, which immediately made the defensive front infinitely better, and the Chiefs don’t pose much of a rushing threat (although Isiah Pacheco is certainly giving them a lift). They’re getting Ja’Marr Chase back, and Joe Mixon is likely returning as well, providing their offense with the biggest possible lift. Joe Burrow has never lost to Patrick Mahomes, and I see no reason for that first loss to come here. If Cincinnati’s offensive line can keep Burrow afloat, he should have a field day against a secondary that simply hasn’t seen an offense this stacked yet this season. Look for Chase to have a massive game against Chiefs rookie DB Trent McDuffie. This is a perfect matchup for Cincy, and while Mahomes and company are obviously going to do their thing, I just think the Bengals have what it takes to win this game and stake their claim for the AFC. Bengals stocks are skyrocketing, and this is their best opportunity to keep them rising. I virtually never pick against the Chiefs, but this just makes sense to me. Which of course means it’s going to explode in my face.

Raiders 27-24 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

If I know anything about both of these teams (which I rarely ever do), then I know this game is going to be hilarious and must-see TV from start to finish on Sunday evening. They don’t make many games with much more potential to be a complete clown fiesta than this one. These teams in this time slot in a divisional showdown is just bound to create fireworks. Neither of these teams moves the needle at all. Neither one does anything particularly well other than force feed their star RBs. Neither of these defenses are good, so those RBs should pop off like they always do. That alone makes this worth the price of admission. I don’t even know how to assess this matchup or make a pick here, so I’m just going to take the Raiders for being at home and looking flashier last week. They might come back to Earth and completely crash after last week, or they could carry that momentum into this big game and pop off yet again. Regardless of what I predict, the opposite will happen.

Cowboys 27-16 Colts

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This is one of the more simple picks of the week. Dallas has extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. They have the vastly superior offense and a much better defense. They are playing some of the best football in the league. The Colts are solid and competitive, but they will simply be overmatched here from start to finish. They might hang around for a while, but I don’t think they have a semblance of a chance in this game.

Buccaneers 16-13 Saints

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

This is gross. Buccaneers-Saints games always are, but this one might be the worst of them all. For both of these teams, the ceiling is mid and the floor is unwatchable garbage. I expect this matchup to bring out the worst in both sides. It’s going to be ugly, defensive, low-scoring, and littered with turnovers. And the slightly better team will prevail. It’s pretty simple in theory, but it’s going to be awful in reality.

All stats taken from ESPN.