Tag: Tennessee Volunteers

2023 NCAA Tournament: Second Weekend Preview and Predictions

After an incredible, historic first two rounds of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, 16 teams and 15 games remain to decide a champion. Here’s my preview of this weekend’s Sweet 16 games and predictions for who will reach next week’s Final Four in Houston.

Cover photo taken from Chron.

After one of the craziest first weekends in the history of the NCAA Tournament, we are left with 16 teams and 15 games to decide a champion. The second weekend of March Madness usually provides some of the best drama and highest quality basketball that the sport has to offer. With the matchups we have ahead of us, I have no doubt that this will be an even better four days of college hoops than what we’ve already gotten. Here’s my preview each game of the Sweet 16 as well as how I think the Elite 8 will play out.

South Regionals

#1 Alabama vs. #5 San Diego State

Unlike the bottom half of this bracket, I pretty much nailed this. This was the matchup I predicted in this Regional Semifinal, and I’m not surprised at either team being here, nor am I shocked at how they got here. Alabama easily dispatched of #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and #8 Maryland thanks to huge second halves from both their offense and their defense. Brandon Miller looked like his usual self in the second round after a scoreless first game, and Jahvon Quinerly has looked as lethal as I knew he could, being the true X-factor on both sides of the ball. SDSU avoided the upset bid by #5 Charleston in the first round before making light work of #13 Furman in round two. Their defense has been as good as expected, and their offense has shown up in a big way, being their efficient selves by finding great looks and hitting them at a very solid clip. While I’d love to think that formula is enough to pull off this massive upset, I just don’t. You need to match the pace of the Crimson Tide on both sides of the ball if you want to keep up with them on the scoreboard. The Aztecs can slow the game down against inferior opponents like CofC and Furman, but not the best team in the field. Alabama will force SDSU to play this game at their pace, and even though I think the physicality of the Aztecs can keep them in it for a bit, they will simply be worn out by the time this one is over. A second half runaway by the Tide’s offense seems inevitable en route to the Regional Final.

Prediction: Alabama 71-60 San Diego State

#6 Creighton vs. #15 Princeton

Princeton is the third straight 15 seed to make a Sweet 16 after Oral Roberts did it in 2021 and Saint Peter’s went to the Elite 8 last year. Their style of play is much more comparable to the Golden Eagles than the Peacocks; they have simply been out-shooting their opponents and making more clutch shots. Their first round win over #2 Arizona was largely due to the Wildcats’ inability to make jumpers down the stretch, but in the second round against Missouri, Princeton shot the lights out. Missouri, like Arizona, struggled mightily from the field as well, which allowed the Ivy League champs to control the game from start to finish. But something tells me that the cold streak for the Tigers’ opponents is going to stop on Friday night. Creighton has been perhaps the most impressive offensive team in the field through two rounds. I said no one would want to see this team if they got hot, and I have been vindicated. The Bluejays’ shooting and situational offense has been a sight to behold. Ryan Nembhard has been the star of the show, including a 30-point effort against #3 Baylor on a scintillating 8-for-13 shooting performance, and Ryan Kalkbrenner has been his usual dominant self down low. They haven’t been playing the toughest of defenses, but they won’t be facing a very tough defense against Princeton either. I simply don’t see Creighton going cold and the Tigers continuing to get bailed out. I think this will be the biggest blowout of the Sweet 16 as the Bluejays gets one step closer to a Final Four.

Prediction: Creighton 79-56 Princeton

#1 Alabama vs. #6 Creighton

This would be a firework show. I hope this is the Regional Final we get simply because of how entertaining it would be. Creighton is one of the few teams in the field that can match Alabama on both sides of the ball, and it would make for an instant classic in Louisville. The Bluejays guards are arguably better than those of Alabama, and they could simply out-shoot them down the stretch. But the thing that would put the Tide over the top would obviously be Brandon Miller. I don’t know if any team has what it takes to stop him, and while I think the bigs of Creighton like Aluma and Kalkbrenner can slow him down, it might not be enough. This is the type of spot where stars shine the brightest, and there is no one more fitting than Miller to show up and show out to will his team to the Final Four for the first time in history.

Prediction: Alabama 68-64 Creighton

Midwest Regionals

#1 Houston vs. #5 Miami

This matchup is even more scintillating than I envisioned, and it’s largely due to how Miami has played in the first two rounds of this tournament. They struggled a bit with #12 Drake, but they showed up and showed out against #4 Indiana in one of the most impressive performances of any team in the field. They were able to have an inside presence defensively and limit the damage of star Hoosiers big man Trayce Jackson-Davis while the guards did their thing on the other end of the floor. Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller have turned their level of play up to 11, and it’s making all the difference on both sides of the ball. They will need to keep that level of play up with their toughest test yet awaiting them on Friday night. With Marcus Sasser not at 100%, Houston struggled with #16 Northern Kentucky, and the questions started flying. But with Sasser looking much better against #9 Auburn, the Cougars looked as dominant as we knew they could. I’d say the key piece has been Jarace Walker, who has been blocking everything he sees while being a monster on the glass and unstoppable down low offensively. With Miami’s guards largely being able to match up with Houston’s I think Walker will once again be the X-factor in this game. He’ll be up against Miami’s Norchad Omier and should have the upper hand. If the Canes can’t keep Walker in check, then they simply won’t be able to win. They need to control the paint and continue to let Wong, Miller, and Pack do their thing on the perimeter if they want to live to see another day. I don’t doubt the possibility of that happening. Those guys have proven themselves, and Jim Larranaga is a tremendous coach with a ton of success in March under his belt. But this might be too difficult of a test for them. Houston has a ton of great momentum on their side, and Sasser will only be healthier for the second weekend. This is going to be an absolute dogfight, but I’m rolling with the Cougars simply due to their better matchups, especially down low, and their superior defense.

Prediction: Houston 63-58 Miami

#2 Texas vs. #3 Xavier

This matchup is even harder to analyze and pick than it was when I was filling out my bracket this time last week. Both Texas and Xavier have had an interesting path to the Sweet 16. That of the Musketeers has definitely been a bit more strange, as they had to overcome a double-digit deficit in the final ten minutes of their first round game against #14 Kennesaw State to avoid total humiliation. They were able to right the ship thanks to some timely misses from the Owls as well as some clutch buckets and defensive moments of their own. The second round was much easier as they completely dismantled #11 Pitt to reach the second weekend. Texas’ road here has essentially been the opposite with a very easy first game and a much tougher second game. After making light work of #15 Colgate, the Longhorns had their hands full with #10 Penn State and their pesky shooting. Still, some big time shots down the stretch from guys like Marcus Carr and Dylan Disu lifted Texas out of a bad spot and into the Sweet 16. So, what to make of this game? Xavier certainly has the shot-making ability to give Texas fits like Penn State did. But what if the shots aren’t falling? They’ll have to control the game inside the arc, and they’re definitely capable, as big man Jack Nunge has had a huge tournament thus far. But he hasn’t faced a player like Timmy Allen or Dylan Disu in his first two games. I just feel like Texas matches up too well with Xavier across the board; their guards are more physical and can disrupt the game and their big men are too athletic for the Musketeers to handle. It certainly won’t be easy, but I like the Longhorns to win what will be an extremely physical game.

Prediction: Texas 56-51 Xavier

#1 Houston vs. #2 Texas

If you looked up “war” in the dictionary, a picture of this matchup would show up. With the Final Four being in Houston, I don’t see a Regional Final more fitting than Houston vs. Texas. It just feels right. Two powerhouses duking it out for the right to go home and play for a national championship is something that we deserve as college basketball fans. This was the Regional Final I predicted, but I’m changing my pick. While I love both of these offenses, I think this is the type of game where defenses thrive. Shots are going to be contested from start to finish, and the game will be won inside the arc. While I previously picked Texas to win this game, I was wildly impressed with Houston’s second half against Auburn. Jarace Walker is proving himself as one of the best players in the country who can take over any game, and it’s clear how much better the Cougars play when Marcus Sasser is on the floor. Barring something unforeseen, he will be as healthy as he’s been in weeks for this weekend’s games, and I think that will make the difference for Houston. While I love the Longhorns from top to bottom, I just don’t think they’ll have an answer for someone who plays as well as Sasser. His defensive efforts against Texas’ guards and his shotmaking ability on the other end will provide the Cougs the lift that they need to go home and try to capture that elusive national championship.

Prediction: Houston 58-57 Texas

West Regionals

#4 UConn vs. #8 Arkansas

Don’t show up if you’re soft. This is going to be an absolute war. UConn’s path to the Sweet 16 has been pretty straightforward, and I pretty much predicted it to a T. They have simply beaten teams up down low with Adama Sanogo and trusted their guards to make shots. Their first two opponents, #13 Iona and #5 Saint Mary’s, were able to deal with that for about a half or so, but over the course of a full game, they just get worn down. But now they have to face a team that can match their physicality across the board in the Razorbacks. Eric Musselman is in pursuit of his third straight Elite 8 appearance, and this team can certainly get him there. They have found their winning formula, which unfortunately involves sidelining star guard Nick Smith, but the results speak for themselves. A first round dismantling of #9 Illinois and an inspiring comeback to knock off top-seeded Kansas have them in a golden position for a potential Final Four, which has eluded them for so long. These squads match up so well with one another that it’s almost impossible to find a differentiator on either side. Signs point towards it being Adama Sanogo, and he’ll have to put together his best performance yet if the Huskies are to advance. Arkansas’ guards are just as good if not better than UConn’s, and the defensive efforts of guys like Devo Davis, Ricky Council IV, and Jordan Walsh can put the Hogs over the top. But I just don’t know if their offensive performance can match that of their defense. I know UConn’s offense will show up night in and night out. I can’t say the same thing for Arkansas. If the Razorbacks make their free throws like they did against Kansas, then they can certainly win this game. But that can’t be their only win condition. I just don’t see them stopping Sanogo down low while simultaneously keeping Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton in check. The Huskies offense will be a bit too much, and they will reach their first Regional Final in eight years.

Prediction: UConn 64-57 Arkansas

#2 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga

In last week’s West region preview, I said this was the best game we could potentially get. Now it’s here. And I cannot wait. I outlined all the history and storylines last week, but now we have an actual game to play. And I can’t really make heads or tails of it. Despite two impressive wins to get here, UCLA is limping right now. Jaylen Clark is obviously out, Adem Bona is still dealing with shoulder problems, and most recently, David Singleton suffered a scary ankle injury late in the second round against #7 Northwestern that could sideline him for this contest. The Bruins will need all hands on deck to deal with Gonzaga’s explosive offense, especially with Drew Timme dominating down low. Timme absolutely took over the second half against #6 TCU in the second round, and his elite level of play is arguably the biggest reason that the Zags are in this spot. If Bona isn’t 100%, the responsibility falls on Kenneth Nwuba, who had a nice game in Bona’s absence against #15 UNC Asheville. But that was a 15 seed. This is Gonzaga. Their offense is picking up steam quickly, and UCLA figures to be trending downwards with their injury problems. But I haven’t backed the Bruins this long and this far to give up hope now. Every sign points towards them losing this game, but I’m going to continue to stick with them… for now. I think they have more clutch shot-making with guys like Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez, and that will make the difference down the stretch. I worry about their perimeter defense without Clark and potentially Singleton, and I worry about their ability to win a shootout against perhaps the best offensive team in the field. But when the chips are down, there isn’t a team in this field I trust more than UCLA.

Prediction: UCLA 69-66 Gonzaga

#2 UCLA vs. #4 UConn

Like Houston-Texas, this was the Regional Final I predicted last week. Just like that game, I’m switching up my pick. It hurts me to bail on UCLA, but I just don’t see how they can keep winning games being as shorthanded as they are. You need all hands on deck to make a championship push in March, and when several key pieces are missing, it’s just impossible. Even if Adem Bona plays in this game, he won’t be 100%, and that means Adama Sanogo will once again be able to lead UConn to victory. I actually like UCLA’s perimeter players more than those of the Huskies, but I don’t think they’ll be able to lead the Bruins to victory by themselves. Unless this turns into a complete shootout, which I don’t think it will, I don’t see a win condition for UCLA. Their defense has to give out eventually, and if it’s not against Gonzaga, then it will be against UConn, who will be headed back to the Final Four in Houston, where they won a championship in 2011.

Prediction: UConn 62-55 UCLA

East Regionals

#4 Tennessee vs. #9 Florida Atlantic

What a strange matchup. While I didn’t think top-seeded Purdue would be playing here, I certainly didn’t expect this to be the matchup. FAU certainly had the stranger path to the Sweet 16 with a bizarre victory at the death over #8 Memphis in the first round before pulling away from history-making #16 FDU late in the second round. They definitely deserve to be here, but it hasn’t been the most difficult of roads to get to MSG. Tennessee, on the other hand, looked remarkably impressive in the first weekend with a dominant win over #13 Louisiana and a defensive masterclass against #5 Duke, who everyone thought would be here in their place. Without their star PG and defensive anchor Zakai Zeigler, I thought the Vols had no chance to beat a team like Duke. But the rest of the team stepped up in a massive way on both sides of the ball as the perimeter defense was suffocating, the paint was completely taken away, and the shots fell at all the right times. It’ll be hard to replicate such an impressive performance, but I don’t think Tennessee will need to do that much against a team like FAU. I know the Owls have a great team and have had a remarkable season, but I don’t see them keeping the magic going against such a difficult defense to beat. If they make their shots, they have a real shot. But I think the Vols have been the far more impressive team, and I’m finding it impossible to pick against them.

Prediction: Tennessee 57-51 FAU

#3 Kansas State vs. #7 Michigan State

If you like guard play, you’re going to want to be seated in front of the TV for this game with a big bucket of popcorn in front of you. Both the Wildcats and Spartans have some of the most fun, electric guard play in the country, and that’s exactly what has propelled both squads to the second weekend. Surprisingly, Michigan State has been the more dominant team in this tournament with two mightily impressive wins over #10 USC and #2 Marquette when many thought they would be one and done. Tyson Walker has been the main catalyst of this run with his impeccable scoring and his ability to run the offense perfectly and control the game in the half court. Other contributors on offense like Joey Hauser and AJ Hoggard are also making key plays on both sides of the ball. Sparty’s defense is doing a great job of disrupting shots and forcing turnovers, and the offense is cashing in on those extra possessions. It’s classic Tom Izzo ball, and it’s once again working wonderfully in March. K State is also playing the role of being slightly overlooked. I personally had them losing to #6 Kentucky, and even though they came very close to doing so, they made some clutch shots down the stretch to pull away. The main reason they were in the game late was the play of star guard Markquis Nowell, who might be the most fun player to watch in this tournament. He may stand at 5’8, but he’s almost always the best player on the floor. His handles, his passing, his shotmaking, and his overall skillset has made him a force to be reckoned with offensively, and watching him hoop is like watching poetry in motion. No one has been able to slow him down yet, but this will be the toughest test yet for the Wildcats. Unlike Kentucky, MSU has the guard play to match Nowell on the perimeter. Moreover, we saw KSU struggle mightily with Oscar Tshiebwe in the second round, and while the Spartans don’t have a force like him down low, they certainly have the size to disrupt Kansas State, the worst rebounding team in the field, in the paint. And it’s just too difficult to pick against Tom Izzo in a spot like this. Jerome Tang is doing amazing things for the K State program, but this moment might be too big for them. They will battle to the bitter end, but I think Michigan State will be able to hold on for just a little bit longer to reach the Elite 8.

Prediction: Michigan State 61-60 Kansas State

#4 Tennessee vs. #7 Michigan State

Of all the Regional Finals, I think this one is the easiest to predict. Simply put, Tennessee’s luck will run out eventually. Regardless of who they play in this spot, they will be facing an offense that won’t vanish into thin air. This is where not having Zakai Zeigler will finally bite the Vols. Even if the shots aren’t falling, a team like Michigan State can beat you with their guard play if you don’t have players to match them on the perimeter. If it’s K State in this spot, I think the same thing goes. While defense is a key component to getting you far in March, I don’t think there are any two more important factors than guard play and coaching. MSU has the clear advantage in both of those areas against Tennessee. I don’t think this moment will be too big for the Spartans, and Tyson Walker will become a household name as he leads Michigan State to yet another Final Four: their ninth (!!) under Tom Izzo.

Prediction: Michigan State 60-56 Tennessee

So, I’m predicting a #1 Alabama vs. #7 Michigan State / #1 Houston vs. #4 UConn Final Four. That’s your sign to bet against that happening! Regardless of what happens this weekend, I know we’re in for some great games and a tremendous Final Four. I’ll be here to give my thoughts on that when the time comes.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: East Region

The East Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament is littered with sleepers and a plethora of potential upsets. Let’s break it down and preview how the East will play out.

Cover photo taken from Purdue Sports.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the East: a region littered with sleepers and a plethora of potential upsets.

Meet the 1 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

For the last several years, Purdue and heartbreak have been synonymous in March. If there’s any team that’s built to change that narrative, it’s this one. This is Matt Painter’s best team yet that has been at or near the top of college basketball all season long, finishing the year ranked 5th in NET, 6th in KenPom, and 7th in BPI. And the one true story of this team is Zach Edey. The 7-foot 4-inch 300-pound junior and National Player of the Year-to-be has dominated college basketball for five months and is showing no signs of slowing down. In every single Purdue game, he dominates the middle of the floor, creates space, and cannot be stopped offensively. If he does miss, then he’ll just grab his own board and put it in the net. It’s virtually impossible to attack the paint offensively when Edey stands there, so you better hope you can hit your shots against the Boilers defense. Edey is as dominant and unique as a talent as college basketball has ever seen. Averaging 22 points (sixth nationally), 13 rebounds (third nationally), and two blocks per game with 26 double doubles in 33 games, he is the heart and soul of this Purdue team, and they go as he goes. That’s not to say this team doesn’t have other options; guards Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis, and Braden Smith control the backcourt and provide plenty of good scoring and passing. But all eyes will be on #15 when the Boilers are on the floor. If their opponents can’t stop Zach Edey, then Purdue may finally reach their coveted Final Four for the first time since 1980. Unfortunately, they’re the 1 seed in one of the toughest regions imaginable with some incredibly difficult teams lying in wait.

Meet the Sleeper: #6 Kentucky Wildcats

Honorable Mentions: #5 Duke, #8 Memphis, #10 USC

I’m not sure if it’s ever appropriate to call a blue blood a “sleeper” but Kentucky has flown under the radar for months now, and they’re finally starting to get their act together. Though Vanderbilt of all teams was their Achilles heel down the stretch, the Wildcats finished the year winning five of their last seven games to rise up the seed line. While their defense hasn’t been as good as they would hope, the offense has been unstoppable, scoring 80+ points in four of their last five. The star of the show remains forward Oscar Tshiebwe, last year’s National Player of the Year, who remains a rebounding machine and a walking double double. Tshiebwe averages 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds (to lead the nation) per game and has amassed 19 double doubles on the year. But the rest of the offense has plenty of capable pieces, namely Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves, who scores over 14 points per game. There are also several key pieces from last year’s team which was upset in the first round by St. Peter’s: guards Cason Wallace and Sahvir Wallace as well as forward Jacob Toppin. I can imagine this Kentucky team wants to atone for their massive failure from last season, when they had title aspirations just to lose to a 15 seed. They haven’t lived up to the hype throughout the season, but they are starting to get hot. If they can stay hot in the tournament, then nobody in the entire field will want to see them. But one of their patented bad days will send them packing.

Upset “Waiting To Happen”: #13 Louisiana over #4 Tennessee

Honorable Mention: #10 USC over #7 Michigan State

I don’t see any first round upsets in this region, but if I had to pick one to happen, it would be this one. Tennessee lost their star guard Zakai Zeigler, an elite perimeter defender, to injury, and it has had clear detriments on a team that was already spiraling downwards as the season came to a close. The Vols are trending in the wrong direction after being so dominant for so long, finishing the year 4-6. Louisiana doesn’t have anything special going on, but their offense can hit threes and rebound with the best of them. If, and that’s a pretty massive if, they get some balls to bounce their way and cash in from distance and the free throw line, they might be able to beat Tennessee’s elite defense, which ranks second in KenPom. But like I said, I think that’s far too unlikely.

Best Potential Games: #1 Purdue vs. #2 Marquette, #5 Duke vs. #6 Kentucky

Honorable Mentions: #1 Purdue vs. #5 Duke, #2 Marquette vs. #6 Kentucky

Purdue and Marquette have the 9th and 7th ranked offensive efficiencies in the country according to KenPom, respectfully. Seeing these offenses square off would be a feast for the eyes. Each team also has one of the nation’s best players in Zach Edey and Tyler Kolek, although they both make their money in vastly different ways. It would be a fascinating display of different offensive styles between two teams and coaches that are desperate for a trip to the Final Four. It would be a wildly entertaining Regional Final, but unfortunately for both squads, I don’t trust them enough to see either one of them making it that far.

Do I really need to outline why I want to see Duke and Kentucky, two Champions Classic teams and two of the greatest programs on Earth, play each other in a Regional Final at Madison Square Garden? This matchup would be everything we could hope for as college hoops fans. Both the Blue Devils and Wildcats are entering the tournament playing some of their best ball, and they are both plenty capable of making deep runs on the backs of their elite talent and coaching. This is the Regional Final I’m predicting in this region, and while I’ve been wrestling with making a pick all week long, there is one team that I’m going to continue to back, no matter how many times they let me down.

My Pick For Houston: #6 Kentucky

Honorable Mentions: #5 Duke, #8 Memphis

I am ready to get hurt again. One year after picking the Wildcats to make the Final Four only to have them lose in the first round to a 15 seed, I am once again backing Coach Calipari and Kentucky. This might not be the most talented team that Cal has ever had in Lexington, but they have a certain feeling to them. If they get hot, they can run through the teams in this region. They’re going to be hungry and desperate to prove themselves and not only make up for the shortcomings of last year, but previous years. Kentucky hasn’t made a Final Four since 2014, when they lost the title game to Shabazz Napier and UConn as an 8 seed. Who’s to say they can’t make another run as a 6? I think they got a favorable draw with a possible breeze in the first weekend before two potential shootouts in the Regionals at MSG. All they need is their offense to operate at its typical level and their defense to step up ever so slightly and they can shock the world en route to Houston.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Purdue over #16 Fairleigh Dickinson: FDU, a 16, is the shortest team in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue, a 1, has Zach Edey. You picking up what I’m putting down?

#8 Memphis over #9 Florida Atlantic: This is one of the most enticing games of the first round. Each of these squads enters the tournament red hot, with Memphis coming off a win over Houston in the AAC title game and FAU having their way with the C-USA en route to a 31-win season. This is as close as an 8-9 gets, but I’m taking the Tigers and their superior talent and coaching. And this might not be the only game they win in this tournament. I think Memphis is the team seeded eighth or lower that has the best shot of making it to Houston.

#5 Duke over #12 Oral Roberts: The Golden Eagles are back in the tournament after their historic Sweet 16 run in 2021, and everyone is jumping on them to pull off an upset over Duke. I hate to break your hearts, but that is simply not happening. The Blue Devils are peaking at the right time, playing their best ball of the year when it matters most. They haven’t lost since February 11th and just ran through the ACC Tournament; they’re primed for a deep run. This one might not be remotely close.

#4 Tennessee over #13 Louisiana: The Vols not having Zakai Zeigler will doom them in this tournament, but not here. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a popular upset pick, but I just don’t see it. Not with the athleticism and level of play that Tennessee brings to the table. This will likely be their lone win in this tournament, but it shouldn’t be too much of a challenge.

#6 Kentucky over #11 Providence: Both of these offenses are absolute treats to watch. This should be a thrilling, high-scoring affair with a juicy storyline in the Bryce Hopkins revenge game for the Friars guard who transferred from Lexington. I’m obviously rolling with the Wildcats all the way to Houston, but this will be a very tough test for them against an offense that can go blow-for-blow with theirs. The Kentucky defense should be able to be the difference.

#3 Kansas State over #14 Montana State: They don’t make games more uninteresting than this one. K State’s defense will dominate from start to finish against perhaps the worst offense in the field of 68.

#7 Michigan State over #10 USC: This is a fantastic 7-10 matchup between two teams that are plenty capable of making some noise in this tournament. Neither have achieved what they wanted to this season, but both have high ceilings that could show in March. While I think the Trojans will have the best player on the floor in Boogie Ellis, I like Sparty more across the board. The experienced backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard should be able to carry them to victory.

#2 Marquette over #15 Vermont: Despite this being a 2-15, the Catamounts won’t be a pushover. This is a great program that continues to dominate the America East and has become a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. But they don’t have what it takes to handle the offense of the Golden Eagles, who have a lot to prove in this tournament under Shaka Smart.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 10 CFP Rankings Reaction

The first CFP rankings of the 2022 season were unveiled on Tuesday night, and I have some thoughts about the actions of the committee as we head into a massive weekend in college football.

Cover photo taken from Tennessee Athletics.

We’ve reached November, which means college football is entering its home stretch, and the College Football Rankings will be released every Tuesday from now until Selection Sunday. The first iteration brought some storylines, both expected and unexpected, as we head into the biggest weekend of the season thus far. Here are some of my thoughts on Tuesday night’s rankings.

Expected Top 3, Unexpected Order

We all know that Tennessee, Ohio State, and Georgia are the top three teams in the country. The order of those three has been debated for several weeks now. A lot of people love Ohio State’s offensive talent and improved defense and have them on top. CJ Stroud is playing like a Heisman favorite and Marvin Harrison Jr. has emerged as perhaps the best WR in the nation. Many continue to ride Georgia’s excellence despite some struggles. They have played the best defense of anyone in college football and deserve their flowers on both sides of the ball. And Tennessee has taken the world by storm with their top ranked offense led by Heisman favorite QB Hendon Hooker. I personally think the balance of the Buckeyes makes them the #1 team, but the committee went Vols, Bucks, Dawgs, and I honestly understand. I’m not upset at all; the Volunteers have been incredible all year long and boast the country’s best win in their 52-49 thriller over Alabama, who clocked in tonight at #6 in the rankings. Georgia being ranked 3rd was a bit surprising, but felt warranted thanks to some unnecessary tough wins against Missouri and Kent State. Most of the debate over this top 3 is pointless, seeing as though Tennessee travels to Athens to take on Georgia this Saturday (3:30 PM EST, CBS), and the winner of that game will likely be ranked #1 until the SEC Championship Game. I think the loser of that game will still rest in the top 5 or so (if Tennessee loses I don’t see how they fall below Alabama) unless it’s a complete blowout, which itself feels unlikely. Ohio State needs to win out and they’ll be just fine, although I feel like them being ranked #1 at any point feels unlikely for the reason I just mentioned. We all know the game that matters the most for them.

Clemson vs. Michigan vs. TCU

The other three unbeatens have had very interesting seasons up to this point. Clemson has put together a solid resume over wins against currently ranked teams like Wake Forest, NC State, and Syracuse. But, they’ve also had a ton of offensive struggles and have a weird situation going on at QB right now with DJ Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik. The committee is valuing their resume apparently and slotting them in the 4 spot, and considering how awful their remaining schedule is, it’s hard to see them missing out on the Playoff. Michigan has looked the part after a CFP appearance last year, running all over opponents with Heisman candidate RB Blake Corum, but have an incredibly weak strength of schedule weighed down by one of the worst non-conference schedules you’ll ever see. However, the committee thinks they pass the eye test, which is fair. Their offense has been great and their defense is somehow better than last year. They only have two real tests left with a home matchup against Illinois and The Game. Both of those matchups will tell us what we need to know about the Wolverines. TCU has emerged out of the blue with their incredible offense led by QB Max Duggan and boast perhaps the best overall resume in the sport with 4 wins over then-ranked teams and the 3rd ranked strength of record in football. But, they was ranked 7th behind Alabama, who has a loss and has struggled mightily against vastly inferior competition. I do have TCU ranked 6th out of the 6 unbeatens in football, but if I were on this committee, I might have put them at 4. Their resume is too strong to be ignored, and they certainly should not be behind a team with a loss, even if that team is Alabama. Based on this precedent, it’s hard to say that the Horned Frogs control their own destiny, even if they go unbeaten and win the Big 12 at 13-0.

A Flawed Logic

The committee has LSU ranked at #10, one spot above #11 Ole Miss, who they thrashed at home two weeks ago. I think ranking the Tigers above the Rebels is totally fair and believed AP voters should have done the same, but #10 feels a bit high. However, that is not my concern. My concern is that the committee is once again picking and choosing when and where to apply their alleged value for head-to-head wins. If you’re going to put 2-loss LSU above 1-loss Ole Miss because of how that game went, then why is 2-loss Utah five spots below 1-loss USC? Why is 2-loss Kansas State six spots ahead of 1-loss Tulane? That last one is a bit more acceptable, seeing as though the Wildcats have looked sensational since that game. But the other one, not so much. USC is vastly overrated in my opinion, which brings me to my next point.

Benefit Of The Doubt

USC is getting the benefit of the doubt from the committee simply because they’re USC. This is a great team, don’t get me wrong, but they do not belong in the top 10. They were in dogfights against Oregon State and Arizona and lost to Utah, who is inexplicably five spots below them. They have a great offense, but a very subpar defense who got gashed by the Utes and most recently the Wildcats in Tuscon. UCLA has certainly looked like the better team, but they’re ranked all the way down at #13. The only reason I can think of for that is the logo on the helmet. This also applies to Alabama, who has no business being ranked in the top six. If there are six unbeaten teams, each with solid resumes, then what is a 1-loss team doing in the top six? I know they’re the Crimson Tide and have two of the best players in the sport in Bryce Young and Will Anderson. But they lost to Tennessee fair and square and honestly should have lost to both Texas and Texas A&M. They realistically control their own destiny to get to the CFP, but that doesn’t mean they should be slotted so high right now. The other teams need to get their respect for what they’ve done (namely TCU). Saturday’s mammoth clash against #10 LSU (7:00 PM EST, ESPN) will show us just how deserving the Tide are of their ranking.

Big Brand Tax

Finally, we have to stop favoring the big brands simply because of who they are. I said it above with the likes of Alabama and USC being ranked above TCU, UCLA, Utah, and others, but it’s also apparent on the backend of the rankings. Are we sure Penn State should be above Illinois? And are we absolutely positively sure that Texas deserves to be ranked at all? The Longhorns have three close losses, but two of them are against okay to bad teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Florida State is on the outside looking in despite their three close losses all coming against ranked opponents and having a win against a top 10 team in LSU. Feels a bit strange, don’t you think?

My Top 10

1 – Ohio State
2 – Georgia
3 – Tennessee
4 – Michigan
5 – Clemson
6 – TCU
7 – Alabama
8 – Oregon
9 – UCLA
10 – Utah

I update this every week as the season progresses. Georgia and Tennessee are so close in my mind, I just trust UGA’s defense infinitely more than the Vols’. I’ve advocated for TCU, and I think they could feasibly be above Clemson, but I’d love to see them play more complete games in the next couple of weeks. Oregon is a team to look out for as they continue to play like one of the best teams in the country after their Week 1 thrashing at the hands of Georgia. UCLA and Utah are being vastly underrated and undervalued by the committee and AP voters, and I would love to understand why.

It’s safe to say this weekend is going to bring about a lot of turmoil in next Tuesday’s rankings. I’ll be right back here to break that all down when they are unveiled. Until then.

All stats taken from ESPN.