Tag: TCU Horned Frogs

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: West Region

The West Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament features some of the sport’s biggest brands and brightest stars. Let’s break it down and preview how the West will play out.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the West: a region with more big brands and star players than we could ever ask for.

Meet the 1 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks

The defending champions are back with a vengeance. Kansas continues to be one of the premier programs in the country with elite talent and impeccable coaching. A year after winning the national championship and losing stars like Ochai Agbaji to the NBA, they have reloaded and been one of the best teams in the nation from start to finish this season. Bill Self’s Jayhawks won the Big 12 regular season title, but got crushed in the tournament championship by Texas. Self was hospitalized for the tournament, but will be back for the NCAAs, so take that blowout with a grain of salt (although Texas is a great team). They finished the year ranked 7th in KenPom as well as 9th in both NET and BPI. Those may be low numbers for a 1 seed, but KU had to go through the toughest league in the sport, so they’re more than worthy of this 1 seed. They played a whopping 24 Quad 1 games and won 17 of them. They are battle-tested and they have proven that they can beat any team on any floor, no matter how good they are. The star of the show is forward Jalen Wilson, who returned to Lawrence after winning the championship last year and has only gotten better. Wilson is one of the nation’s leading scorers with more than 20 points per game in addition to grabbing 8 boards per game. Fellow returning player Dajuan Harris facilitates the offense to perfection with 6.2 assists per game, which ranks top 10 nationally, to go along with 10 points and two steals per game. Freshman guard Gradey Dick has emerged as one of the best scorers in basketball, averaging 14/5/2/1. There is cause for concern, as Kevin McCullar, one of the team’s key pieces, is dealing with injury problems and might not play in the tournament. McCullar is a do-it-all guard/forward who averages 11/7/2/2/1, and without him, the Jayhawks might not be able to handle the athletic teams that could stand in their way like Arkansas and UConn. But at their healthiest, Kansas is as good as they’ve ever been, and they are more than capable of being the sport’s first repeat champion since Florida 15 years ago.

Meet the Sleeper: #4 Connecticut Huskies

Honorable Mentions: #8 Arkansas, #12 VCU

UConn is obviously no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, but this might be their best opportunity for a deep run since their improbable championship in 2014. They might be the most under-seeded team in the field, getting a 4 despite being ranked 4th in KenPom, 6th in BPI, and 8th in NET. They started the year 14-0, including a double digit win over the tournament’s top seed in Alabama. They struggled a bit in the mighty difficult Big East, but the talent is abundant on this roster, and they got a nice draw for a potential Final Four push. Dan Hurley’s squad is led by big man Adama Sanogo, a monster in the paint who averages 17/7/1/1/1. Sanogo has helped this team be the best in the nation on the offensive glass, leading the country in offensive rebounds. The Huskies have patented great guard play with the sensational duo of Jordan Hawkins (16/4/1/1) and Tristen Newton (10/4/5/1): a perfect pairing of scoring and facilitation. Freshman forward Alex Karaban has also emerged as a key piece on both ends of the floor. This team’s offense is one of the hardest in the nation to slow down as they pick you apart all game long while producing plenty of second chance points, and their defense is extremely difficult to beat with its size and physicality. Any team in the field will have their hands full with UConn. Don’t let the seeding fool you; this is one of the best teams in this tournament, and they are more than capable of not only making a Final Four, but winning the whole thing.

Upset Waiting To Happen: #12 VCU over #5 Saint Mary’s

This is the only first round upset that I see happening in the West. VCU enters this tournament after capturing the A10 title with a 27-win season, including a 22-3 finish to the year. But they’re not getting as much love as other potential Cinderellas in the field. I’m here to tell you that you should absolutely be backing the Rams here. For the majority of the season, their defense was the strongsuit, but the offense lagged behind. Now, they’re peaking offensively at just the right time while the defense continues to be as pesky as it always is. Star guard Ace Baldwin Jr. has been one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball this year while simultaneously being the team’s leading scorer and assist man (top 10 nationally in assists with 5.9/game). The size and physicality also helps the defense, with Michigan transfer Brandon Johns, Jalen DeLoach, and Jamir Watkins stretching the floor and locking down the middle of the floor. Saint Mary’s plays a very similar style of ball; their own star guard Logan Johnson has been one of the better players in the country this season. They have an elite defense and a sneaky good offense. But the Gaels seem to have peaked earlier in the season. They ended their season getting absolutely waxed by Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship, and their confidence is likely shaken by that. VCU has been red hot for months, and I think they can carry that momentum into this tournament and knock off Saint Mary’s for a classic 5-12 upset.

Best Potential Games: #2 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga, #1 Kansas vs. #2 UCLA

Honorable Mentions: #1 Kansas vs. #8 Arkansas, #1 Kansas vs. #4 UConn, #2 UCLA vs. #4 UConn

The South has the potential for several Goliath vs. Goliath clashes before we even reach the Regional Final. Each of the top four seeds have played in Final Fours in the past decade, and two of them have played for a national championship, including Kansas’ win last April.

Perhaps the most enticing of these matchups is the potential rematch between UCLA and Gonzaga. We all remember their thrilling classic in the 2021 Final Four which was capped off by Jalen Suggs hitting a half-court shot at the buzzer to send the Zags to the title game. To get this matchup again in a Regional Semifinal in Las Vegas would be an absolute delight. Even with the Bruins being shorthanded, seeing matchups like Tyger Campbell vs. Julian Strawther or Drew Timme vs. Adem Bona would be so much fun. I actually see this being one of the Regional Semis, with UCLA advancing to the Elite 8.

While I don’t think this will be the Regional Final, the appeal of Kansas-UCLA needs no explanation. They’re two blue bloods, two of the greatest programs in the history of collegiate athletics. They have been near the top of the polls for this entire season. They each feature All-American forwards in Jalen Wilson for the Jayhawks and Jaime Jaquez for the Bruins. This is a matchup that’s worthy of the pageantry of Los Angeles. If this does end up being the Elite 8 game in the West, I’d give a slight edge to UCLA, even though they’ll be without Jaylen Clark. This team just has an energy and level of play that truly inspires me.

My Pick For Houston: #2 UCLA

Honorable Mentions: #1 Kansas, #4 UConn

As I just said, I love this UCLA team. They’re probably my favorite team in the country to watch. They have players that are easy to root for, and Mick Cronin has done another tremendous job building a championship-contending team in Westwood. 26 of their 29 wins came on 14 and 12-game winning streaks, and although they didn’t win the Pac-12 tournament, I thought they were far and away the best team in the league from start to finish. They finished the year ranking 3rd in both NET and KenPom (including having the #1 defensive efficiency according to KenPom) while being 4th in BPI. First Team All-American Jaime Jaquez leads the way, doing it all with 17/8/2/1/1 averages. The heart and soul remains Tyger Campbell, who I would pick over any point guard in the world to lead my team. Campbell is second on the team in scoring with 13.6 points/game and leads the team with 4.7 assists/game. Freshman forward Adem Bona has emerged as a key piece down low, averaging 8 points and 5 boards per game. But the real differentiator for this Bruins squad was G/F Jaylen Clark, perhaps the best perimeter defender in the nation who averaged 13/6/2/3, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the final game of the regular season. With Clark, UCLA would’ve waltzed through the conference tournament, and perhaps this tournament as well. I would have rode them all the way to the national championship, but it’s much harder to put my faith in them now. Still, I think this Bruins team has the talent and the culture for another deep tournament run. The key piece will end up being David Singleton, who will start in place of the injured Clark. The senior guard has played the role of a spark-plug off the bench all year long. Now, he’ll need to carry his weight in the starting lineup. If they can consistently play at the top of their game, this team is destined for another Final Four run. It will be difficult in what I consider to be the toughest region in the tournament, but I’m not going to give up on this team now after months of rocking with them. I have UCLA beating UConn in the Regional Final in Las Vegas to get to Houston for a heavyweight clash with Texas before losing the national championship to Alabama.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Kansas over #16 Howard: The Bison are a great story, earning their first NCAA bid in 31 years, but title defenses don’t get off to an easier start than this for the Jayhawks.

#8 Arkansas over #9 Illinois: Eric Musselman’s ferocious Hogs always leave their mark in March. This is another physical group of guys that will impose their will on any basketball game they play. Illinois has been too underwhelming offensively to pick them to overcome the Razorbacks’ physicality on defense.

#12 VCU over #5 Saint Mary’s: Apropos of above. The Rams are the hottest team in the field that no one is talking about. The Gaels are a great team who had a great year, but I’m rolling with my former school to ride their defense and improving shooting to the upset.

#4 UConn over #13 Iona: Rick Pitino’s Gaels are a trendy upset pick, and for good reason. They have a geographical advantage and are one of the hottest teams in the field. But the Huskies are simply too dominant down low and imposing on defense to lose a game to a vastly inferior opponent.

#6 TCU over #11 Arizona State: It’s pretty hard to pick against the Sun Devils after their offensive explosion in the First Four, but they’ll be facing a much tougher test in the Horned Frogs’ elite defense. If TCU’s star guard Mike Miles is healthy, then they should be able to dominate on both ends of the floor. This is a team that made some splashes in the extremely tough Big 12, so I trust them to beat an Arizona State squad that treaded water in the Pac-12.

#3 Gonzaga over #14 GCU: The Zags are one of the most fascinating teams in the field of 68. For the first time in several years, haven’t had the spotlight shining on them throughout the season, and have almost flown under the radar en route to another WCC title. I think this team plays much better when the pressure isn’t on them, and they have virtually none on them in this tournament. They could be primed for a deep run, and it will start with a very easy win against the WAC champions.

#7 Northwestern over #10 Boise State: Northwestern has been one of the best stories of the season, with Big Ten Coach of the Year Chris Collins improbably leading the Wildcats to an impressive season led by a suffocating defense. Their offense is an extremely weak link, but I think that playing in the Big Ten has prepared them for the big stage. If nothing else, they are capable of winning this opening round matchup against an admittedly stingy Broncos squad.

#2 UCLA over #15 UNC Asheville: I have backed the Bruins all season long. This is perhaps my favorite team in the entire tournament, despite their recent injuries. I think they’re primed for another run to the Final Four, and it starts here.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After the best College Football Playoff semis of all time, it’s time to crown a national champion. Here’s my preview of the title game and my pick to hoist the trophy in Los Angeles.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

After months of tremendous games, countless storylines, and the best College Football Playoff of all time, it’s time to crown a national champion. Tonight in Los Angeles, the top-seeded Georgia Bulldogs look to become the first back-to-back champs in over a decade as they take on the unlikely underdogs from Fort Worth: the 3rd ranked TCU Horned Frogs.

For UGA, this is just another game. They have only lost one game in the last two years, and despite having to pull off an improbable comeback against Ohio State in a 42-41 Peach Bowl win, there was little to no doubt that they would make it to the title game. Their typically elite defense struggled mightily with the star-studded Buckeyes offense, but QB Stetson Bennett and the Dawgs’ own offense went to work and were scorching hot in the passing game to help get them to this game. But that’s not a position that Georgia wants to be in. They pride themselves on their defensive greatness, and if they bend like that, they might just break. They got away with a lot last Saturday and could have lost the game by all means. Their offense bailed them out, but that’s not guaranteed to repeat itself, especially against a better TCU defense that excels at getting after the passer and forcing turnovers. It’s safe to say that Kirby Smart will have his guys ready to play a much sharper game on Monday night.

TCU, on the other hand, has had one of the more improbable runs to the title game. They weren’t even ranked to begin the season before going 12-0 in the regular season. Despite losing the Big 12 title game, they reached the Playoff and erased any and all doubt about their legitimacy as a contender by outlasting Michigan in an absolutely electrifying 51-48 Fiesta Bowl victory. The defense scored two touchdowns and forced plenty more turnovers to make life easy for Max Duggan and the offense, who did what they had to do as well. The performance helped bring light to the fact that TCU isn’t just any old underdog. They are a real team that can compete with, and perhaps beat, any team in the country on any given day. They have the grit and the identity that every college football program yearns for. The only question that remains is: can that get them on top of the mountain? TCU is still being disrespected by everyone; not many folks are giving them a chance in this game. The 12.5-point spread is the largest I think I’ve ever seen in a title game. This team deserves more respect than that. We’ll see if they can go out and take it.

My Pick

Georgia 38-27 TCU

Monday, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN

Some Davids aren’t meant to slay Goliath. While I think TCU has one of the best shots to become an underdog that wins a title, this feels like too steep of a mountain to climb. However, unlike many, I think they’ll be competitive from start to finish. They have the talent on both sides of the ball to compete with Georgia and their 5-star players. Their offense is operating at an extremely high level with their exquisite run game, and their defense swarms to the ball to force turnover after turnover. The Dawgs looked pretty vulnerable the last time we saw them, and I think Sonny Dykes and the Frogs can exploit a lot of the flaws in their game, especially attacking their defense. It wouldn’t shock me if we saw TCU control this game for a while. But the superior talent and coaching of Georgia will prevail in the end. They’ll likely have a similar 4th quarter to the one they had against Ohio State to pull out a late win. Maybe this is a bit too large of a point differential, but I can see UGA pulling away late to make it look more convincing than it actually was. To me, it’s a matter of attrition with these two defenses. If TCU’s defense can hold throughout the game, they’ll have a great chance to win it. But if they slowly fold like they did against Michigan, Georgia will take advantage. If the Dawgs defense plays like they did on New Year’s Eve, they will be in deep trouble. But if they return to their status quo, then Stetson Bennett and the offense can do their thing. I see the latter being much more likely, and I see Georgia lifting the trophy when it’s all said and done to become the first repeat champions since Alabama ten years ago to continue proving themselves as the new perennial power in college football.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 College Football Playoff Preview and Predictions

The 2022 College Football Playoff is finally here with four worthy participants and two fascinating matchups. Here’s my preview of the teams and games before tonight’s contests to decide next Monday’s title game.

Cover photo taken from NCAA.com.

An incredibly fun, wild, and unpredictable college football season filled with upsets and amazing storylines has led to this: a classic New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff slate on Saturday night. This year’s Playoff features some familiar faces, as well as one newcomer, but the outcome of these games is anything but a forgone conclusion. Anything can happen in these final few matchups as we inch closer to crowning a champion in Los Angeles next Monday night. Before I pick Saturday night’s Playoff games, let’s take a look back on each of our contestants and how they got to this point.

#1 Georgia Bulldogs (13-0)

The defending champions have not slowed down for a second and have been the best team in college football all season long. While there was some debate in the middle of the year, the Dawgs left no doubt that they are still the cream of the crop. They enter the Playoff at 13-0 with all but one win coming by double digits and as champions of the SEC, perhaps the best conference in the sport. They moonwalked through everyone they faced this year, bookending the season with massive wins in Atlanta against Oregon and LSU. It’s only fitting that their playoff game comes in the same stadium. Georgia’s formula is nearly identical to last year’s, but the main difference is that the offense is starting to pick up the slack. The defense is still elite, but maybe not as much as the legendary 2021 unit. The other side of the ball is vastly improved with QB Stetson Bennett putting together his best season yet in his final campaign in Athens with over 3,500 total yards and 27 total touchdowns: good enough to be a Heisman finalist. The running back committee of Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton has done its thing while Brock Bowers, the best tight end in football, handles most of the pass-catching duties. The defense is still stacked with returning stars like Kelee Ringo and Christopher Smith locking down the secondary while future top 5 pick Jalen Carter mauls offensive linemen up front. The Dawgs are simply better than everyone else and can beat you in every which way. It’s extremely difficult to see a world where they don’t repeat as champions and establish themselves as the next great power in college football.

#2 Michigan Wolverines (13-0)

Coming into the 2022 season, there were many questions about whether or not Michigan could live up to their incredible 2021 which featured their first real win over Ohio State and Big Ten title since the turn of the millennium as well as a trip to the Playoff. Many people, myself included, had a lot of doubts that the Wolverines could replicate such a great year, especially with so much talent leaving for the NFL. And all this team did was have an even better season with an even better team. Michigan has looked the part of not only a Playoff team, but a Playoff contender and a true blue blood in the sport all season long. A borderline embarrassing non-conference schedule clouded what was actually a fantastic team. After JJ McCarthy won the starting QB job over Cade McNamara, it took a while for the offense to get going. But a combination of McCarthy’s development and the greatness of the backfield duo of RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards helped propel this offense to be one of the best in the country. Corum was on a Heisman pace with a near-1,500 yard season with 18 rushing touchdowns, but a knee injury sustained in the second to last game of the regular season cut his campaign short. However, Edwards has picked up the slack with two massive games against Ohio State and Purdue. It helps that the defense didn’t lose a step after losing its stars to the draft. It’s now a more balanced, deeper unit that’s even better than its predecessor. The balance and slow burn nature of the Wolverines led them to victory in every game this season, capped off by yet another dominant win over the Buckeyes. Simply put, this team has everything it takes to win a national championship. It’s just a matter of them finally climbing that peak.

#3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)

This team did not begin the season in the AP Top 25. In fact, they didn’t begin the season with a single vote. Nobody believed in first-year head coach Sonny Dykes or QB Max Duggan, who had dealt with so many health problems in his career. Nobody thought they would be anything special. And here they are, the lone first-time contestants in the CFP. TCU has been one of the best stories of the year on so many fronts. Dykes has done a tremendous job with this program, and Duggan has been as incredible of a leader and player as any program could hope for, accounting for 36 total touchdowns en route to a second-place finish in the Heisman voting, the highest of any player in the Playoff. It helps that he has been throwing to future first-rounder Quentin Johnston. They also have a tremendous run game headlined by RB Kendre Miller, and Duggan provides plenty of support with his legs as well. The Frogs had a perfect regular season filled with dramatic, thrilling wins, but unfortunately weren’t able to capture the Big 12 title after a heartbreaking OT loss to Kansas State in the title game. However, it didn’t impact their playoff standing, and they now sit in the Playoff as the 3 seed. They have a tremendous opportunity to make up for the snubs and shortcomings of past TCU teams like the ones in 2011 and 2014, and they can do so with virtually no expectations or weight on their shoulders. If they can play their style of tough, physical football, and get the ball in Max Duggan’s hands to end a game, then they can truly emerge victorious on any given afternoon against any team in the country.

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

It has been an absolute roller coaster of a season in Columbus. As if I should have expected any different. Expectations were sky high all offseason long as the Bucks returned one of the best teams in the country on paper. I fully expected this team to be one of the best Ohio State squads of my life. The returning trio of CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and TreVeyon Henderson was supposed to continue to tear college football to shreds while the vastly improved returning defense locked things down on the other side of the ball. Things ended up going a bit differently. The defense did get a huge boost as DC Jim Knowles was brought in and was able to make an immediate impact. It’s a much better unit than 2021’s, especially in the front seven, but the secondary is still a massive issue. The corners simply aren’t good enough for the scheme and make the defense worse as a whole. That really hurts, considering how great guys like Tommy Eichenberg and JT Tuimoluao have been up front. The other side of the ball has been much crazier. A hamstring injury sustained on his second catch of the year prematurely what could have been a legendary campaign for JSN. Injuries too plagued the season of Henderson, who will miss the CFP with a foot issue. CJ, however, has been just fine, throwing for 3,340 yards and 37 TDs, and that’s in large part to the weapons that have stepped up in JSN’s absence. No one has had a bigger impact than sophomore WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who replaced the consensus best WR in the sport by becoming the consensus best WR in the sport. I told everyone that Harrison would burst onto the scene in a huge way; it was pretty easy to anticipate that out of an incredible athlete like him. The Philly Freak tallied 72 catches for 1,157 yards and 12 TDs and proved to everyone just who WRU is. The other receiver who made a massive splash was fellow sophomore Emeka Egbuka, who also eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark while hauling in 9 scores. Workhorse RB Miyan Williams has largely been able to make up for Henderson’s absence, and true freshman Dallan Hayden provides a great spark off the bench. The Buckeyes boast perhaps the best offense in the country despite the injuries, but the thing they can’t seem to avoid is their own mistakes. This team shoots themselves in the foot more times than I can fathom, and it’s largely due to head-scratching schemes and playcalling from head coach Ryan Day, who has had a puzzling season to say the least. It caused many games to be way closer than they should have been, and it caused the team to lose yet again to Michigan, this time in embarrassing fashion at home. But, they now get a “second lease on life” as the coach loves to say thanks to USC’s loss in the PAC-12 title game. I could write a whole nother piece on Day’s shortcomings in 2022, but I’ll save that for later. But it should not be ignored. It will be the deciding factor in what this team is capable of doing in this Playoff. If they can truly live up to their potential and limit their own mistakes, then nobody is capable of stopping them. But at this point, I just fail to see that happening. It would only be fitting for our season to end because we couldn’t get out of our own way.

These teams are genuinely so close to one another, and I think these matchups are going to be truly fantastic to watch on Saturday night. All that’s left is to to pick the games. Here’s how I see the CFP playing out.

Michigan 24-20 TCU

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl — Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN

Vegas seems to think that this game won’t be as close as the Peach Bowl. I can’t wrap my head around that. I don’t see how this game will be anything but physical, low-scoring, and close. These teams play nearly identical styles of football with both programs priding themselves on running the ball down the opponent’s throats and physically dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I think TCU has the personnel and the talent to compete with Michigan, which most seem to disagree with. But what I can’t argue with is the fact that Michigan’s talent is generally superior on both sides. They have the better athletes and they have the better players at almost every position. I would give TCU the edge at QB, and I know that Max Duggan will never go down without a fight. I trust in his ability to keep TCU in this game from start to finish, but at some point, the brakes are going to come off. Michigan will be able to establish the run with Donovan Edwards, and I think JJ McCarthy will make the necessary throws to allow the Wolverines to separate, similar to his performance in Columbus. Moreover, I trust Michigan’s defense more than TCU’s, which got gashed in the Big 12 title game against Kansas State. They also have what it takes to be the differentiating factor in this game. As much as I would love TCU to pull the upset and emerge victorious, it just feels to unlikely. But this team will not go gentle into that good night. They will rage against the dying of the light. I just don’t think it will be enough.

Georgia 38-24 Ohio State

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl — Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ESPN

For four weeks, I have tried time and time again to convince myself that we can win this game. I just can’t bring myself to have that level of faith. In fact, I don’t even know if we can keep this close. This is simply a perfect storm for Georgia. This is their third game of the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after having won the first two by a combined score of 99-33. This is practically another home game for them. They are coming into this game scorching while the Buckeyes fell backwards into the 4 seed after being thumped yet again by their bitter rivals. And they simply matchup up perfectly with Ohio State. The Bucks offense is certainly a juggernaut, but they will not be at full strength against a UGA defense that eats people alive. The Dawgs offense is more than capable of doing damage against a battered OSU defense which hasn’t strung together many great performances as of late. As I said before, if the Bucks come out and play a perfect game by limiting their own self-inflicted mistakes and executing their offense the way they want to, then no one can stop them. When they attack defenses, they emerge victorious every time. But this is just too tough of a test, and I don’t know if these guys are up for it. I want to win so badly, but I’m not going to let that blind me from the truth. This is a good Buckeyes team that refuses to live up to expectations and has simply gone soft as the season has progressed. Their reward for their continued shortcomings is going to be a Bulldogs beatdown on Saturday night in Atlanta. And my 2022 will end on the quietest of whimpers.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 10 CFP Rankings Reaction

The first CFP rankings of the 2022 season were unveiled on Tuesday night, and I have some thoughts about the actions of the committee as we head into a massive weekend in college football.

Cover photo taken from Tennessee Athletics.

We’ve reached November, which means college football is entering its home stretch, and the College Football Rankings will be released every Tuesday from now until Selection Sunday. The first iteration brought some storylines, both expected and unexpected, as we head into the biggest weekend of the season thus far. Here are some of my thoughts on Tuesday night’s rankings.

Expected Top 3, Unexpected Order

We all know that Tennessee, Ohio State, and Georgia are the top three teams in the country. The order of those three has been debated for several weeks now. A lot of people love Ohio State’s offensive talent and improved defense and have them on top. CJ Stroud is playing like a Heisman favorite and Marvin Harrison Jr. has emerged as perhaps the best WR in the nation. Many continue to ride Georgia’s excellence despite some struggles. They have played the best defense of anyone in college football and deserve their flowers on both sides of the ball. And Tennessee has taken the world by storm with their top ranked offense led by Heisman favorite QB Hendon Hooker. I personally think the balance of the Buckeyes makes them the #1 team, but the committee went Vols, Bucks, Dawgs, and I honestly understand. I’m not upset at all; the Volunteers have been incredible all year long and boast the country’s best win in their 52-49 thriller over Alabama, who clocked in tonight at #6 in the rankings. Georgia being ranked 3rd was a bit surprising, but felt warranted thanks to some unnecessary tough wins against Missouri and Kent State. Most of the debate over this top 3 is pointless, seeing as though Tennessee travels to Athens to take on Georgia this Saturday (3:30 PM EST, CBS), and the winner of that game will likely be ranked #1 until the SEC Championship Game. I think the loser of that game will still rest in the top 5 or so (if Tennessee loses I don’t see how they fall below Alabama) unless it’s a complete blowout, which itself feels unlikely. Ohio State needs to win out and they’ll be just fine, although I feel like them being ranked #1 at any point feels unlikely for the reason I just mentioned. We all know the game that matters the most for them.

Clemson vs. Michigan vs. TCU

The other three unbeatens have had very interesting seasons up to this point. Clemson has put together a solid resume over wins against currently ranked teams like Wake Forest, NC State, and Syracuse. But, they’ve also had a ton of offensive struggles and have a weird situation going on at QB right now with DJ Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik. The committee is valuing their resume apparently and slotting them in the 4 spot, and considering how awful their remaining schedule is, it’s hard to see them missing out on the Playoff. Michigan has looked the part after a CFP appearance last year, running all over opponents with Heisman candidate RB Blake Corum, but have an incredibly weak strength of schedule weighed down by one of the worst non-conference schedules you’ll ever see. However, the committee thinks they pass the eye test, which is fair. Their offense has been great and their defense is somehow better than last year. They only have two real tests left with a home matchup against Illinois and The Game. Both of those matchups will tell us what we need to know about the Wolverines. TCU has emerged out of the blue with their incredible offense led by QB Max Duggan and boast perhaps the best overall resume in the sport with 4 wins over then-ranked teams and the 3rd ranked strength of record in football. But, they was ranked 7th behind Alabama, who has a loss and has struggled mightily against vastly inferior competition. I do have TCU ranked 6th out of the 6 unbeatens in football, but if I were on this committee, I might have put them at 4. Their resume is too strong to be ignored, and they certainly should not be behind a team with a loss, even if that team is Alabama. Based on this precedent, it’s hard to say that the Horned Frogs control their own destiny, even if they go unbeaten and win the Big 12 at 13-0.

A Flawed Logic

The committee has LSU ranked at #10, one spot above #11 Ole Miss, who they thrashed at home two weeks ago. I think ranking the Tigers above the Rebels is totally fair and believed AP voters should have done the same, but #10 feels a bit high. However, that is not my concern. My concern is that the committee is once again picking and choosing when and where to apply their alleged value for head-to-head wins. If you’re going to put 2-loss LSU above 1-loss Ole Miss because of how that game went, then why is 2-loss Utah five spots below 1-loss USC? Why is 2-loss Kansas State six spots ahead of 1-loss Tulane? That last one is a bit more acceptable, seeing as though the Wildcats have looked sensational since that game. But the other one, not so much. USC is vastly overrated in my opinion, which brings me to my next point.

Benefit Of The Doubt

USC is getting the benefit of the doubt from the committee simply because they’re USC. This is a great team, don’t get me wrong, but they do not belong in the top 10. They were in dogfights against Oregon State and Arizona and lost to Utah, who is inexplicably five spots below them. They have a great offense, but a very subpar defense who got gashed by the Utes and most recently the Wildcats in Tuscon. UCLA has certainly looked like the better team, but they’re ranked all the way down at #13. The only reason I can think of for that is the logo on the helmet. This also applies to Alabama, who has no business being ranked in the top six. If there are six unbeaten teams, each with solid resumes, then what is a 1-loss team doing in the top six? I know they’re the Crimson Tide and have two of the best players in the sport in Bryce Young and Will Anderson. But they lost to Tennessee fair and square and honestly should have lost to both Texas and Texas A&M. They realistically control their own destiny to get to the CFP, but that doesn’t mean they should be slotted so high right now. The other teams need to get their respect for what they’ve done (namely TCU). Saturday’s mammoth clash against #10 LSU (7:00 PM EST, ESPN) will show us just how deserving the Tide are of their ranking.

Big Brand Tax

Finally, we have to stop favoring the big brands simply because of who they are. I said it above with the likes of Alabama and USC being ranked above TCU, UCLA, Utah, and others, but it’s also apparent on the backend of the rankings. Are we sure Penn State should be above Illinois? And are we absolutely positively sure that Texas deserves to be ranked at all? The Longhorns have three close losses, but two of them are against okay to bad teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Florida State is on the outside looking in despite their three close losses all coming against ranked opponents and having a win against a top 10 team in LSU. Feels a bit strange, don’t you think?

My Top 10

1 – Ohio State
2 – Georgia
3 – Tennessee
4 – Michigan
5 – Clemson
6 – TCU
7 – Alabama
8 – Oregon
9 – UCLA
10 – Utah

I update this every week as the season progresses. Georgia and Tennessee are so close in my mind, I just trust UGA’s defense infinitely more than the Vols’. I’ve advocated for TCU, and I think they could feasibly be above Clemson, but I’d love to see them play more complete games in the next couple of weeks. Oregon is a team to look out for as they continue to play like one of the best teams in the country after their Week 1 thrashing at the hands of Georgia. UCLA and Utah are being vastly underrated and undervalued by the committee and AP voters, and I would love to understand why.

It’s safe to say this weekend is going to bring about a lot of turmoil in next Tuesday’s rankings. I’ll be right back here to break that all down when they are unveiled. Until then.

All stats taken from ESPN.