Cover photo taken from CBS Sports.

AFC East

1st: Miami Dolphins (12-5)

It was pretty difficult for me to come to a decision on who’s going to win this division, but I settled on Miami for a few different reasons.

I think their offense will once again be one of the best in football. I feel confident in Tua Tagovailoa to run this offense, and you’d have to imagine there will be a very, very heavy emphasis on keeping him upright this season after last year’s concussion fiascos. If anything happens to him, this team will come under very heavy fire. Even if he goes down, this offense is elite enough to survive. Tyreek Hill is simply the most dynamic offensive player in football and Jaylen Waddle is as good as a WR2 can get. Together, they formed arguably the best receiving duo in football. I do worry about the running game, which was pretty terrible a year ago and hasn’t improved much since. Raheem Mostert will be the lead back with rookie Devon Achane behind him. If Achane splashes, then this offense could be unstoppable. But with the offensive line in a weird spot, it’s hard to see that happening.

The good news is that the Dolphins definitely improved defensively, highlighted by the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. He did get hurt in camp and will be out until December, but that just means he’ll be healthy and rested in time for Miami’s playoff push and/or run. I also really liked their second round pick in Cam Smith out of South Carolina — a very physical corner who fits the defense very well. The newcomers join a defense with studs like Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard in the secondary and monsters up front like Christian Wilkins, Jerome Baker, Jaelan Phillips, and Bradley Chubb. 

This is simply one of the best rosters in the league, and even though this division should be a tough one, I like the Dolphins’ chances in year two under Mike McDaniel. If Tua is healthy throughout the year, they have no excuse to not win the division. 

2nd: Buffalo Bills (11-6)

I had sky high expectations for the Bills in 2022 and they let me down in a massive way. I picked them to go 15-2 and win the Super Bowl, and although they had a good regular season, they laid their biggest egg to date in an embarrassing home loss to Cincinnati in the Divisional Round. So, I’m going to temper my expectations a bit here.

This team has become extremely predictable in recent years. They’re going to dominate the regular season and light up the stat sheets. Josh Allen is going to dazzle us with his incredible playmaking abilities. They’ll probably beat the Chiefs in the regular season because that’s the only game they care about. Then they’ll make the playoffs and get dealt with thanks to their inability to win in January. The only thing that’s different this season is that I don’t even think they’re going to win the AFC East, but that’s in large part due to them having a tougher schedule than the Dolphins. 

This is essentially the exact same offense as last year with a few minor changes. James Cook is taking over as the full-time RB1, which should help take some of the burden off Josh Allen in the run game. They should also get a boost from a couple rookies: O’Cyrus Torrence at guard and Dalton Kincaid at tight end. I liked both picks, but it might be a bit early for them to make instant impacts. Kincaid probably won’t even start over Dawson Knox, but he should catch a lot of passes. Regardless, this offense is still the same. Josh Allen will force feed Stefon Diggs and run all over the place — a formula that works extremely well until it doesn’t.

The defense is also pretty much the same except for the addition of Leonard Floyd, which should help limit the damage until Von Miller returns from his ACL injury. It’s an elite defense — which was fifth in yards and second in scoring in 2022 — with playmakers all over the place. Even with a very difficult schedule, they should dominate against most teams. 

Again, it’s only in the playoffs that this team forgets how to play football. And I can guarantee it happening once again this January.

3rd: New England Patriots (9-8)

I feel good about this Patriots team, but it only feels right that they’ll essentially be the exact same team we saw a year ago. I just haven’t seen enough improvement across the board to believe they’ll be anything more than mediocre — a fringe playoff team.

The biggest question mark in New England is the quarterback position (still feels weird to say that) as nobody knows whether or not Mac Jones is the guy. The team would have you believe that’s the case considering they released the other QBs on the roster — Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham — at the end of the preseason. This is Macaroni’s do-or-die year. He has to return to his 2021 form, or he’s done in this league. He got a weapon this offseason in Juju Smith-Schuster, but I don’t think he’s exactly a bonafide WR1. In fact, I don’t think the Patriots have one at all. Juju, Devante Parker, and Kendrick Bourne are all just… there. I love Rhamondre Stevenson out of the backfield, and I think the addition of Ezekiel Elliott should make them better in the redzone. But this offense is going to be average and straight up boring all year long. Luckily for them, boring works just fine.

New England had a top-10 defense in 2022, and they could be even better this season. I absolutely loved their first round selection Christian Gonzalez, who should bolster that secondary which has been missing its CB1 since Stephon Gilmore left. The trio of Joneses — Jack, Marcus, and Jonathan — are also solid playmakers in that secondary. The defensive line is stacked with Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise, Davon Godchaux, and Lawrence Guy. I do worry about the middle of the defense, which doesn’t feature very good on-ball linebackers. But I feel good about every other area.

The Patriots are the Commanders of the AFC, but with much better coaching. Their great defense and mid offense will keep them in most games, but ultimately lead them nowhere as they miss out on the playoffs and end up with a mid-tier draft pick.

4th: New York Jets (9-8)

I’m sick of hearing about the Jets. I’m sick of talking about the Jets. The hype is warranted, but we need to start being realistic about what this team is actually going to be in 2023. 

Yes, the young talent on this roster is astounding. Yes, they have the reigning OROY and DROY in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner — two of my favorite players in football. Yes, they have one of the best defensive tackles in football in Quinnen Williams and perhaps the most underrated corner in the league in D.J. Reed. And yes, they added Aaron Rodgers — one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time — to try and lead them to a Super Bowl. 

No, I do not care.

Let’s stick to the facts. The most important thing to consider here is that Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season where he posted the worst passer rating of his career and his off-the-field weirdness clouded anything he did on the field. He hasn’t thrown for 300 or more yards since 2021. He’s going to turn 40 this year. It’s not exactly bold to assume that he’s not magically going to return to form. But that’s not the only problem I have with this offense. Outside of Garrett Wilson, I don’t feel good about anything the Jets have going on. Breece Hall is a great player, but coming off an ACL tear. Their WR2 is… Allen Lazard? And the offensive line is an injury-prone mess. I liked the Dalvin Cook pickup, but considering the Jets rushed for less than 100 yards per game last year, I don’t think he’ll provide much out of the backfield from a rushing perspective. Him and Hall will catch a lot of passes, but that’s only going to take you so far. And it certainly doesn’t help when you don’t exactly have an offensive head coach and your offensive coordinator is one of the weirdest personalities in football who just had perhaps one of the worst head coaching stints in recent memory. I wouldn’t be remotely shocked if this offense straight up sucks for a while until they get their bearings set. 

I do love this defense, however. As I said, Sauce Gardner is one of my favorite players in football, D.J. Reed is criminally underrated on the other side, Quinnen Williams is a beast up front, and C.J. Mosley is a commanding presence in the middle. This defense was in the top four in yards, passing yards, and scoring last year without forcing many turnovers for a reason. Maybe if the defense does get more takeaways, they can be the best in the league. 

Combine all of this with the fact that the Jets won’t win a game until October, and you simply don’t have a playoff team. They’ll lose to the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Chiefs to open the year, and when they sit at 0-4, there will be a lot of questions to answer. And when your QB is Aaron Rodgers, an 0-4 hole isn’t easy to dig out of. He’ll quit on your team at the earliest convenience. 

AFC North

1st: Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

There really isn’t much to say about the Bengals that hasn’t already been said. I’m pretty sure my preview of them from last year could suffice today. They are still the class of the AFC North — even if some other teams are starting to catch up with them — and they will be very, very hungry to win.

The 2023 Bengals offense will be largely similar to last season’s as Joe Burrow continues to lead the charge with the assistance of the consensus best WR trio in the league of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. I think Burrow and Chase are in for their biggest season yet, but that’s a story for tomorrow. Joe Mixon is back in the backfield after taking a paycut, and Burrow might have finally found a rock defending his blindside in Orlando Brown Jr. Let it be known that I was not a fan of this move, as I don’t really like Brown as a pass-blocker. But I trust Joe Burrow more than all but one quarterback in this league, and even with him suffering a calf strain in camp, I think he’ll be just fine. This offense will continue to be elite, especially with Chase hopefully being healthy for a full season, and it should win them most games.

The biggest changes in the defense are the emergence of two second-year players as impact starters — safety Dax Hill and corner Cam Taylor-Britt. These two former Big Ten stars ended last year very well, and Hill has had a great camp and preseason as the Jessie Bates replacement. While the secondary has struggled at times, I think they will be elite this year. If guys like Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton can put together solid years, this could be one of the best pass defenses in the league after a tough 2022.

The AFC North is bound to cannibalize itself this year, but I think the Bengals have the experience and talent to come out on top. I trust them more than any other team in the division, and I think they’re destined for greatness in 2023. 

2nd: Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

I don’t know if it’s an overstatement to say that the Ravens haven’t had expectations this high in the Lamar Jackson era. After a fantastic offseason that saw Jackson finally get the bag and some weapons to throw to, Baltimore is one of the favorites to win it all this year. 

The key additions in the Charm City are Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers who join Rashod Bateman to form the most boom-or-bust receiving trio I’ve ever seen. Bateman has flashed when healthy, but he has missed far more games than he has played since being drafted in the first round in 2021. Beckham hasn’t played a football game since tearing his ACL in Super Bowl LVI, and he has always had his own injury problems. Flowers is an undersized but lightning-quick rookie who could be Baltimore’s version of Tyreek Hill. Mark Andrews is coming off a down year, but is still one of the best tight ends in the league. If these guys stay healthy and Flowers ends up being the caliber of player the Ravens had in mind when selecting him in the first round, this could be a top passing offense in football. They also need new OC Todd Monken to prove that he’s more than just a great college coordinator, which might be a tall task. But everyone has injury concerns, including the QB himself and even the running backs on the roster like J.K. Dobbins. In each of the last two seasons, injuries have completely ruined the Ravens, who could have accomplished so much more if they were healthy. It’s simply not a given that they’ll be completely healthy, and that’s why I can’t pick them to win this division.

The other side of the ball should be as solid as ever. The Ravens defense was top three in scoring and rushing yards a year ago, and they could be even better this year. They have what is likely the best linebacking core in the league with Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Odafe Oweh, and Jadeveon Clowney, which gives them the perfect blend of pass-rushing and run-stopping ability. The secondary is highlighted by Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams, and I liked the addition of Rock Ya-Sin. If 2022 first-rounder Kyle Hamilton develops into the generational safety talent that he was at Notre Dame, this could end up as a much improved unit, which would be a massive leap after being the seventh-worst pass defense in 2022. 

I think this roster is good enough to contend for a division title. But I just don’t know what to expect out of their offense, and that makes me hesitant to claim them as anything other than a Wild Card team. But, this is the wild AFC North, and anything can happen down the stretch.

3rd: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)

In short, the Steelers are like a better version of the Patriots. They have a young QB who thrived in college and could develop into a solid starter in the pros. They have one of the best coaches in NFL history who refuses to lose. They have a great defense that will keep them in most games. But the difference in Pittsburgh is that their offense actually looks like it’s ready to take a leap.

Kenny Pickett had a great preseason, and although I’ve been rude to him in the past, I think he’s poised to make a big leap this year. It helps that he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. George Pickens is an absolute freak out wide, Diontae Johnson is one of the most underrated receivers in the league, Pat Friermuth is a very solid tight end, and Najee Harris should have a bounce-back year behind a potentially improved offensive line. I loved the move to trade up and snag Broderick Jones, who they hope is their franchise left tackle in the making. With Pickett having a year under him and a full preseason as the starter, I think this offense should be much better than the mess it was in 2022.

As always, Pittsburgh’s defense will be elite. They have two of the best defensive players in the sport in T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the ageless wonder Cameron Hayward in the defensive interior, a new solid edge rusher in Larry Ogunjobi, a budding star in the middle in Alex Highsmith, and a potentially improved secondary with additions like Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace. A better defensive backfield will help take the Steelers over the top, and I think at the very least they should be better than last year. 

Combine all of these improvements with the fact that the Steelers play one of the easiest schedules in football and are coached by Mike Tomlin and it becomes pretty obvious that this team will be contending not just for a playoff spot, but a division title. Unfortunately for them, I have them just missing out due to the way the rest of the conference shakes up as well as tiebreakers. But it wouldn’t shock me at all if one or two games went their way to help get them into the dance. 

4th: Cleveland Browns (6-11)

Do I have to? Fine.

The Browns are a solid football team. But that’s about it. They’re okay, probably average and nothing more. I’m not going to talk about their quarterback because I’m sick of doing that. Their offensive line and run game needs no explanation as it was the sixth-best in the league last year thanks to the dominance of their elite front five and star RB Nick Chubb. The rest of the offense, however, was rather terrible thanks to shoddy quarterback play no matter who was under center and no real playmakers other than Amari Cooper — who is still just incredible at what he does. I don’t think this offense will be as poor as they were a year ago, but I don’t think they’ll be anything special either. The quarterback’s best days are far behind him, and the running game will only take them so far.

The defense is still solid and should be better with some key additions up front like Shelby Harris and Za’Darius Smith. Myles Garrett will wreak havoc on backfields as always, and the secondary is actually sneaky elite. The Browns had the sixth-best passing defense in the league last year, which I find really interesting. Denzel Ward is obviously elite, but other guys like Grant Delpit and Greg Newsome have come along well. I think the addition of Juan Thornhill back there will also help out. 

So, Cleveland has a very meh offense with a solid defense. In a division where that can work, you’d think they’d do better than just six wins. But I think you really need a good offense to compete in this division. With them having the worst one of these four teams, I think it’s fairly obvious that they’ll be in the basement yet again. You’ll hear no complaints about that from me.

AFC South

1st: Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)

The Jaguars are going to be so, so good this year. It helps that they play in the worst division in football where the other three teams are each going to be picking in the top 10 of next year’s draft. But more than anything, this is one of the most exciting young teams in football that should build off a wildly successful 2022 and contend for the conference title this year.

Doug Pederson proved to be one of the best head coaching hires of last year as he helped get Trevor Lawrence to elite QB status and the new offensive weapons proved to be great additions as Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Travis Etienne all had good years. Now, they get Calvin Ridley back from a suspension to be their bonafide WR1, and I think that’s absolutely massive for this offense. Lawrence to Ridley could be one of the top duos in all of football this year. In fact, I’d be shocked if it wasn’t. The offensive line isn’t great, but the run game was still effective last year, and should be better this year with the addition of Tank Bigsby — a physical back to complement Etienne perfectly — through the draft. Considering how terrible some of the defenses in this division are, this offense should be one of the best in the league. 

The defense also proved their worth last year, as they’re the ones who really got the Jags into the playoffs in their division-clinching Week 18 victory over Tennessee. There’s playmakers everywhere, especially in the linebacking core. Josh Allen and Travon Walker are great pass rushers — and Walker still has the chance to develop into a superstar after being taken first overall a year ago — and Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluokun are tackle machines in the middle. The secondary certainly leaves a lot to be desired, but they had their moments last year. They really need someone to step up and be the leader of that unit. I was surprised they didn’t address it more through the draft, and it could really hurt the Jags in the playoffs, but they have a while to figure it out.

Jacksonville gets six free wins and should win five or six more elsewhere. They’re probably the biggest lock for the playoffs in the entire NFL. Once they get there, I think they could even more damage than they did a year ago.

2nd: Tennessee Titans (6-11)

I think the Titans could truly be one of the worst teams in the league, but they have one of the best head coaches in football in Mike Vrabel and a truly elite defense. Even when you think they’re going to be awful, they just find ways to win. So I’m not going to predict them to be totally terrible, even if they lost seven straight games to close out the 2022 season and had a very boring offseason.

This offense was bottom-five in total yards, passing yards, and scoring a year ago largely thanks to an injury to Ryan Tannehill and terrible QB play in relief of him combined with a complete and utter lack of playmakers. Even with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins — which means virtually nothing, by the way — this is probably the worst skill position group in football. DHop’s best days are behind him, and the millionth straight year of riding Derrick Henry just doesn’t seem like it’ll be as fruitful as it has been in the past, especially behind such a dreadful offensive line. Tannehill’s time will be up soon, whether that’s due to injury or ability isn’t a concern. They drafted Malik Willis last year and Will Levis this year because they know they need a QB. Unfortunately for the Titans, I don’t have much faith in either of those guys to be a franchise QB. I think this team is pretty much doomed on that side of the ball.

The defense should still be really good thanks to an absolutely stacked front seven and very solid secondary. Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in the league, Denico Autry and Harold Landry are great pass-rushers, Azeez Al-Shaair was a great free agent pickup, and Kevin Byard is still holding it down at safety. But nothing this defense does will be able to make up for how poor the offense is. 

The combination of the defense with Mike Vrabel’s coaching will win them games, especially against the younger rebuilding teams in the division. But I think the Titans could be a sneaky awful team this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they dealt Derrick Henry at some point this season. And I’d support a move like that. The sooner they kick this rebuild into high gear, the better. 

3rd: Houston Texans (5-12)

The Texans made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they selected C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 pick in the draft to be their franchise quarterback before trading all the way up from No. 12 to No. 3 to select Will Anderson to be their franchise edge rusher. New head coach and hometown hero Demeco Ryans has his two key players to build a team around, and I fully support him. I will say that not having a first round pick this year certainly hurts considering how stacked the incoming draft class is at the top, including Stroud’s former Ohio State buddy Marvin Harrison Jr. But I generally like the direction the Texans are going in.

In Stroud’s rookie year, the offense is likely going to struggle. He doesn’t have much to work with to be fair. His WR1 is Nico Collins for crying out loud. Luckily, his offensive line is very solid, and he has a workhorse RB in Dameon Pierce, who should have a very solid sophomore campaign. The defense — which was one of the worst in football a year ago — will probably be bad once again, but they’re starting to put some pieces together. Anderson joins a unit with two studs in the secondary in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley, but the rest of the defense is just a bunch of guys. The good news is that Demeco Ryans can squeeze great play out of any defense, so I think they should at the very least be better than they were in 2022. But that’s a very low bar. 

I’d say the rebuild is off to a solid start in Houston. We’ll need to see some solid evidence of that this year to justify giving up their top selection in this April’s draft. As it stands, the Cardinals are licking their chops at the prospect of having both the No. 1 and No. 2 picks. Please don’t let that happen.

4th: Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

I think the Colts will be the second worst team in football this year, allowing them to select Marvin Harrison Jr. to come home and play for his pop’s old team. Between that and the Rams letting Caleb Williams stay in Hollywood, the NFL script is starting to get a bit obvious, isn’t it?

All jokes aside, the Colts are the worst team in the AFC, but that doesn’t mean they’re not trending in the right direction. Much has been made of the selection of Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 pick in the draft, but no one is doubting that he has the potential to be a great QB in this league. He’s an incredible athlete with a generational arm. If he gets sculpted into an actual NFL quarterback, he will undoubtedly be a franchise player in Indy. It doesn’t help that the won’t have his elite running back behind him as Jonathan Taylor is still injured and might not even end up playing for the Colts if they don’t pay him. Seriously, what is Jim Irsay doing? Is it safe to say he’s now the worst owner in pro football? I think so. Anyhow, a RB tandem of Deon Jackson and Zack Moss in Taylor’s absence isn’t exactly inspiring. Neither is a receiving core consisting of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Isaiah McKenzie, although I loved the selection of Josh Downs in the third round. Even the offensive line doesn’t look great, even with one of the best guards in the league in Quenton Nelson holding down the middle. With Richardson’s development being the emphasis of this offense, I think it’s possible that they end up as the worst in the league.

Then there’s the defense, which seemingly has no business being bad, but was the fourth-worst scoring defense in football a year ago. You’d think with guys like Kwity Paye, Shaquille Leonard, and DeForest Buckner up front that this defense would cook. Quite the opposite! The secondary is simply terrible outside of Kenny Moore, but the Colts did a good job of addressing that through the draft by selecting JuJu Brents in the second round and Jaylon Jones in the seventh. With luck, the defense won’t be as porous as they were last year. But with the offense in a very sorry state, I think these guys will just be gassed down the stretch. 

All of this adds up to Indianapolis being one of the worst teams in football. It just makes too much sense. But that’s not a problem for the Colts. As long as Richardson shows signs of development and they sort out the front office nonsense, this season will be a success. And if they wind up with the No. 1 pick and get to trade it away for a king’s ransom? They’ll be set.

AFC West

1st: Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

The defending Super Bowl champions who have the best quarterback ever, one of the best tight ends ever, and one of the best coaches ever are going to run through the AFC yet again en route to another 1-seed. Shocking, right?

To put it in the simplest possible terms, as long as Patrick Mahomes quarterbacks this team, they will be division winners and guaranteed to be in the AFC Championship Game. His MVP season and playoff run last year — which was primarily on one damn leg — was astonishing. It didn’t matter that they lost Tyreek Hill. It didn’t matter that their WRs were largely below average. It didn’t matter that the rest of the AFC West spent over $500 million on key free agent acquisitions to stop him. He can’t be stopped. And he won’t be stopped this year either. Even with the WRs being largely the same, he’s guaranteed to cut up defenses all year long. It helps that Travis Kelce continues to dominate the NFL, even as he enters his mid-30s. This week’s news about his knee injury is definitely a cause for concern, so we’ll see how that shapes up as the week progresses. But as it currently stands, there’s no reason to believe that they won’t continue to be the most dominant duo in the NFL that carries this offense to New Heights (sorry, I had to).

As it stands, the defense isn’t in the best spot as Chris Jones continues to hold out and still hasn’t returned to the team. But the Chiefs are a well-run organization that’s smart enough to realize that they should pay their best defensive player. He’ll be back soon enough. I have high hopes for this defense though, considering they just won the Super Bowl while starting rookies all over the place. Those young guys like George Karlaftis up front and Trent McDuffie in the secondary have experience under their belt now, and I think this defense will be much improved from a year ago. Once Jones returns, they have the chance to be elite.

Like I said, it’s a simple calculus. Mahomes. Reid. Kelce. Jones. 1 seed. Sixth straight AFC Championship Game at home. Back-to-back Super Bowl titles? Very, very likely.  

2nd: Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers, man. They never change. A blown 27-0 lead in last year’s Wild Card game in Jacksonville certainly led this franchise to do some soul searching in the offseason. Luckily, I think this summer was a good one in Los Angeles.

The biggest success of the offseason was locking up Justin Herbert with a massive long-term deal, which was due. He is in the upper echelon of QBs in the NFL no matter what narratives people like to push, and he deserves every penny. I do wish the Chargers gave him some better receivers to work with — I wasn’t a big fan of taking Quentin Johnston in the first round when guys like Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers were on the board — but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will still do their thing. It certainly helps that Austin Ekeler is back after requesting a trade. He continues to absolutely decimate defenses out of the backfield, and is easily the most important skill position player on this team. Getting him back was massive for this offense. With an improving offensive line and the addition of a real offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, I have no doubt that LA should boast one of the top offenses in the NFL this year.

The defense was a massive letdown in 2022, and I honestly have no idea what to expect from it this year. Injuries did bite them, and the secondary was actually pretty solid, but this feels like it has to be the year for these pieces to come together and form an elite unit. When you have guys like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack up front with J.C. Jackson, Asante Samuel Jr., and Derwin James in the secondary, there’s no excuse to be anything but great. Luckily, Derrick Ansley is here to save the day. He was clearly a fantastic coordinator in Tennessee and should help whip LA’s defense into shape. 

So, the Chargers are doing some good things. They will certainly be a playoff team. But at the end of the day, they’re still the Chargers. They’re guaranteed to fall apart when it matters most. It’s really a damn shame for a team that I really, really like.

3rd: Denver Broncos (6-11)

The Broncos are a joke. And the joke sucks. I truly hate talking about them. It’s a shame for such a proud organization to be going out so sad.

It’s crystal clear that last year’s Russell Wilson trade was a complete and utter disaster that could go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history. It didn’t help that they also made one of the worst head coaching hires ever in Nathaniel Hackett, who didn’t even make it to New Year’s before being told to kick rocks. Enter Sean Payton, who comes out of retirement to clean up this mess. I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not very confident that he can. I have no faith in this roster, and I don’t have much faith in him as a coach these days either. I know he’s supposed to be this quarterback guru, but let’s be real here — Russell Wilson is beyond saving. His arm is shot, his confidence is shot, he lacks the mobility that made him truly great, and he’s just so weird off the field. There’s a reason that the internet enjoys making fun of Russ more than any other player in football. The rest of the offense isn’t even bad — the offensive line was improved in free agency through the additions of Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers, the receivers are solid, and Javonte Williams is back. But you have to dig deeper to see the problems. McGlinchey completely fell off a cliff in the last couple of years in San Francisco, Jerry Jeudy can’t stay healthy, Marvin Mims is an unproven rookie, and Javonte Williams is coming off an ACL tear. Even when this team was healthy, they were the single worst offense in the league. There’s nothing here to convince me that’s going to change. 

However, this defense is truly special. It was their only saving grace for most of last season. There was a time where they had the top scoring defense in the league and the worst scoring offense in the league. That’s just unheard of. But there’s simply studs all over this unit, even with some key losses like Dre’mont Jones. They added Frank Clark to go alongside Randy Gregory off the edges, Josey Jewell holds down the middle, and the secondary is stacked to the brim with Pat Surtain II — perhaps the best corner in football — Justin Simmons, and others. I don’t know if they’ll be the best defense in the NFL or even the AFC, but they will certainly be near the top.

So I guess the 2023 Broncos will just be a slightly better version of the 2022 Broncos. Spoiler alert: that’s still pretty bad.  

4th: Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)

The Raiders are essentially in the same spot they were last year, but slightly worse. They still have so many elite players, but they have nothing else outside of them, and they will be sabotaged by their abysmal coaching staff. I think they’ll be firmly in the running for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

The offense will look vastly different now that Derek Carr is gone. All of those downfield throws will be replaced by dinks and dunks over the middle as Jimmy Garoppolo takes over under center, reuniting with his old buddy from New England Josh McDaniels. Josh Jacobs is back on a new deal, which is absolutely huge for this offense, as he made this abysmal offensive line look elite en route to leading the NFL in rushing last year. And of course they have one of the league’s best wide receivers in Davante Adams, who should inhale targets like Kirby this year. But the rest of the offense is just sad. As I said, the line is terrible, and they don’t have any other real pass-catchers now that Darren Waller is gone. Maybe Michael Mayer emerges as a solid rookie tight end or Jakobi Meyers becomes a bonafide WR2. But there’s not much reason to believe any of that will happen with McDaniels leading this team.

The defense has perhaps the best edge-rushing duo in the league in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones with a great defensive tackle in Jerry Tillery and an athletic freak at linebacker in Divine Deablo. The secondary isn’t much to look at, but I wouldn’t say it’s terrible by any means. Despite all of this, the Raiders had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, statistically speaking. With Patrick Graham back at defensive coordinator, I don’t see that changing, even with the abundance of talent in the unit. 

I think the Raiders are more talented the Broncos in bunches, but they’re just worse overall and have a much worse defense. So, when it comes down to it, this is your last place team in the AFC West. And they might end up being one of the worst teams in the AFC as a whole.  

Playoff Picture

1 – Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

2 – Miami Dolphins (12-5)

3 – Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)

4 – Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

5 – Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

6 – Buffalo Bills (11-6)

7 – Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

Wild Card Weekend

Dolphins over Ravens: If last year’s matchup between these two teams is any indication, this would be a thriller. I do think both defenses are better now than they were in that game, but in any case, these two teams matchup very well with one another and would provide a fantastic contest. I simply like Miami’s roster better from top to bottom, and I’d have to give them the edge in a very close one.

Jaguars over Bills: Death. Taxes. The Bills unceremoniously going out earlier than expected in the playoffs. This one just feels right. The Jags are trending upwards at an exponential rate while the Bills just seem to be plateauing. This is the type of game that establishes Jacksonville as one of the NFL’s premier teams and puts Trevor Lawrence on the podium as one of the league’s three best quarterbacks.

Bengals over Chargers: This game would be simply awesome. Two of the best young QBs in the NFL duking it out in the playoffs is essentially what the AFC has turned into, but we haven’t gotten this matchup just yet. I’d have to give the edge Cincinnati being the home team with the better roster. I think the Bengals are starving to get back to the Super Bowl, and they’re not going to let the NFL’s living embodiment of a choking hazard stand in their way.

Divisional Round

Chiefs over Bengals: Simply put, the winner of this game will win the Super Bowl. It’d be a damn shame if this wasn’t the AFC Championship for the third straight year. Alas, I’ll settle for another classic in the Divisional Round. We know the Bengals are capable of beating the Chiefs anywhere on any field. We know they’re going to be desparate for revenge after last year’s title game. But I learned my lesson in January and February of this year. I’m not picking against #15 in a spot like this. He has proven time and time again that he just wills his team to win. And I think he’d do that to the Bengals once again. For as long as this rivalry exists, I just don’t think we’ll see a game like the 2021 AFC Championship Game again. Patrick Mahomes won’t let that happen.

Jaguars over Dolphins: I think Florida might collapse in on itself if this ends up being a huge playoff game. I also think that it’d be one hell of a matchup. Two of the best young offenses in football going at it is something that the AFC playoffs are made for. Although I think the Dolphins have a better defense than the Jaguars, I think Trevor Lawrence is the difference in this game. When the going gets tough, I trust him far more than I trust Tua Tagovailoa. I think he’ll once again lead his team to victory and carry the Jags to their first AFC title game since the infamous 2017 matchup against the Patriots.

AFC Championship Game

Chiefs over Jaguars: This game would essentially be apropos of the 2022 Divisional Round matchup, except Patrick Mahomes would be healthy for the whole game. That means that Kansas City would probably win comfortably. I love what the Jaguars are doing, but this is the tallest task in the NFL. One does not simply beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead in the playoffs. Maybe one day they’ll get there. But I don’t think this is that day.

So it’ll be a Super Bowl LIV rematch this February in Las Vegas with the Chiefs taking on the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. Bold prediction on my part, I know. Simply put, I’m never going to pick against Patrick Mahomes. So I’ve got the Chiefs going back-to-back as Mahomes wins his third ring in six years as a starter and Kansas City establishes their dynasty behind the best quarterback to ever play the sport.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

The AFC is undergoing an incredible youth movement. The likes of Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and more are all gone. The conference now belongs to names like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and more. This was on display last year, where the conference flexed its depth for a tremendous season en route to a sensational playoffs that saw the Bengals of all teams make the Super Bowl. The offseason that followed was one of the most wild and wacky we’ve ever seen, and it makes things even more fascinating in the better of the two NFL conferences. If 2022 is anything like its predecessor, truly anything can happen. Let’s preview how it’ll play out.

AFC East

1st: Buffalo Bills (15-2)

Last year, I picked the Bills to win the AFC East with this exact same record. They accomplished the more important of those two things by winning the division and were 13 short seconds away from hosting the AFC Championship Game. Alas, it was not meant to be. Perhaps now it is. The Bills have a fire lit under them after last year’s shortcomings, where they felt like they were robbed of a shot at the Super Bowl. Josh Allen showed us all that he is a top tier, MVP-caliber QB in this league. The offense remains stacked with the established Stefon Diggs and 2021 breakout Gabe Davis at receiver. The reigning #1 defense is back and ready to silence the doubters after last year’s failure against the Chiefs. Adding Von Miller to the mix definitely helps. Simply put, this team was fantastic last year and are even better on paper this year. They’re the Super Bowl favorite for a reason. The only thing stopping them from getting their hands on the Lombardi Trophy for the first time is themselves.

2nd: Miami Dolphins (9-8)

The Dolphins made all the right moves this offseason. Bringing in the offensive guru Mike McDaniel as the new head coach makes for an admittedly interesting scheme. They kept their great defense intact, especially by extending star CB Xavien Howard. The obvious highlight was trading for WR Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs, providing the offense with a bonafide superstar to bring a new level to the unit. Pairing him up with Jaylen Waddle makes for one of the more fascinating, explosive WR duos in all of football. However, the main concern that holds this team back resides with who throws them the ball. Tua Tagovailoa simply hasn’t lived up to the hype in his short NFL career. The clock is ticking, and time is slowly running out on him. It has to work this year for Tua, or he will be replaced with swiftness. He makes or breaks this team, and the way I see it, he’s not good enough to get them over the hump. Unless he figures it out, the Dolphins are restricted by his abilities, or lack thereof, and I don’t see them making the playoffs because of that.

3rd: New England Patriots (8-9)

For the second straight year, I’m not entirely sure what the Patriots are trying to do. This is a team that reached a very high peak last year, but eventually came undone and ended their season with an embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. And they haven’t done much to get better. This is essentially the same team as last year minus some key pieces, namely ballhawk CB J.C. Jackson, who left in free agency. Mac Jones had a promising rookie year at QB and is likely going to get better, but the weapons on this team don’t inspire a lot of confidence. The defense is still solid, but nothing special, especially without their INT machine. This is just a run-of-the-mill, middle-of-the-pack football team, through and through. I don’t see how they make the playoffs as the third best team in their own division in a conference as deep as the AFC is.

4th: New York Jets (4-13)

I’ll say this about the Jets. I do think they’re getting better. I like the direction this team is headed in. I thought they had a tremendous draft, adding offensive pieces like WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall as well as defensive studs in CB Sauce Gardner and DE Jermaine Johnson. The rebuild is seemingly going well, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be good in the immediate future. Zach Wilson is still a big question mark, and dealing with a bone bruise in his knee from this preseason isn’t a good sign. Whether it’s him or Joe Flacco under center, this team won’t be winning too many games this season. The defense is still below average and the offense is still lacking in several areas, but the aforementioned rookies might help with that. If Wilson comes back and shows a huge leap from his rookie year, then maybe the Jets can win 6-7 games. But I don’t have that level of faith in him or this team.

AFC North

1st: Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

The Bengals were the surprise team of last year, and my Team Of The Year in my season retrospective. They were awesome all season long en route to a Super Bowl appearance and a near victory. The question on everyone’s mind is, will they be able to run it back? History doesn’t favor young teams who lose Super Bowls. However, Cincinnati can say with confidence that they improved this offseason. You can argue that the offensive line is the reason they couldn’t win a championship, so they bolstered it with guys like Alex Cappa and La’el Collins. The defense remains intact after dominating the postseason. The offense is still stacked with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. And the beloved Joe Burrow is still the QB. By all means, the Bengals are a better team than the one that just won the AFC. At the very minimum, they should find themselves back on top of the division.

2nd: Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

Even with questions circling this team like vultures, the Ravens feel primed to bounce back from a disappointing 2021. It helps that key players aren’t dropping like flies like they were last preseason. J.K. Dobbins is back in the backfield after missing all of last year with an ACL tear, and that gives this offense a massive boost. Even with one of the worse WR groups in football, the load will be taken off Lamar Jackson’s shoulders as he continues to prove to the organization why he deserves a massive payday. He’ll still have a great TE duo to throw to with the established Mark Williams and the blooming rookie Isaiah Likely. The offensive line should be better as well with big time acquisitions like Morgan Moses from the Jets and Tyler Linderbaum in the draft. Perhaps the most important part of the offseason in Baltimore was bolstering their defense. I already liked the front seven a lot. Signing Marcus Williams and drafting Kyle Hamilton is sure to help the defensive backfield. The corners are still a little suspect, but at their best, guys like Kyle Fuller, Marlon Humphrey, and Marcus Peters can lock down anyone. I think the Ravens improved everywhere they needed to, and the pure talent and great coaching should get them to the playoffs. It all comes down to Lamar, as it so often does, but I have a ton of faith in him. The organization, on the other hand, might not.

3rd: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

In the nicest way possible, the Steelers might be the most mid team in the NFL. They finally decided to name a starting QB, and it’s Mitch Trubisky for some reason. I have no doubt that first round pick and hometown kid Kenny Pickett will be starting under center sooner rather than later, but I would’ve given him the reins from the start, especially when you look at how strong of a preseason he had. Regardless, it’s not the QB position that makes this team so average. In fact, from a distance, you might think the rest of the team is actually really good. I wouldn’t fault you for that. Pittsburgh has great skill players, from Najee Harris in the backfield to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and emerging rookie George Pickens outside. The defense is also loaded with All-Pros like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Heyward as well as reigning DPOY T.J. Watt. However, a few stars on each side of the ball is not good enough to be great in this league. The rest of the defense is pretty bad, especially in the secondary. More importantly, the Steelers offensive line might be the worst in football, which has been on display for the last two years now. They cannot run the ball and have to rely on quick passes to ensure that they don’t allow 10 sacks every game. They just refuse to get better in that regard, and I don’t trust any team without a functioning OL. Combine that with a pretty tough schedule, and I don’t see the Steelers returning to the playoffs. I might actually be being a bit generous by giving them a winning record, but I just think they’ll have a little more juice once Pickett is the starter. Hopefully that’s soon, for their sake.

4th: Cleveland Browns (4-13)

Oh, Cleveland. Only you could go from decades of disfunction and turmoil to relevance and being a fan favorite only to throw it all away by becoming a symbol of disgracefulness. Only you would be the only team to not just go near Deshaun Watson, not just trade your future for him, but give him a $230 million contract, fully guaranteed. Only you. It’s safe to say the entire league will be rooting against the Browns this year, even with Watson being suspended for the first 11 games. That bias is not why I have Cleveland finishing with 4 wins. Well, not entirely. I do think this is a solid roster, but without a competent QB for 65% of the season, I refuse to put any faith in them. The offense is still loaded with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running behind arguably football’s best offensive line as well as Donovan Peoples-Jones and newcomers Amari Cooper and David Bell catching passes. The defense is essentially the same as last year’s, which isn’t a bad thing by any means. Myles Garrett is one of the sport’s premier players, Jadeveon Clowney has found new life in Cleveland, and young guys like Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah make the front seven a bonafide unit. The secondary is better than you might think, with Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit, and Greedy Williams locking things down. Greg Newsome also showed flashes last year of becoming the player they hoped by drafting him in the first round. On top of all that, signing John Johnson III from the Rams was one of the more underrated moves of the offseason in my opinion. Despite all of this, the Browns are suffering the consequences of selling their souls. I initially gave them a better record than this, but I don’t mind docking them wins at all. They dug themselves this hole. They made their bed, and now they must lay in it.

AFC South

1st: Tennessee Titans (9-8)

Welcome to the NFL’s worst division, where the winner could very feasibly be below .500. I’m giving the defending champs the benefit of the doubt, and for good reason. For starters, the Titans have been consistently viable for several years now, and they always find a way to shock me. They were dominant throughout last year, both with and without Derrick Henry, and that got them the AFC’s 1 seed (yeah, I forgot about that too). It may have ended unceremoniously, but I’m not going to sit here and act like this isn’t a good team. However, there are still questions. The biggest one lies where they made the biggest change this offseason. Trading their elite and best WR in A.J. Brown for the right to draft Treylon Burks as his replacement was a decision that I disliked on draft night. My opinion on that has not changed. Their best bet was to pay Brown instead of investing in a rookie, and their refusal to do so has left them with one of the league’s worst WR groups. I liked the acquisition of Robert Woods, but I just don’t know how effective he can be coming off an ACL tear. The offense should still be fine as long as King Henry is running the ball, but last year was the indicator that they are not a true contender with Ryan Tannehill at QB. That’s why I loved the move to draft Malik Willis, who flashed in the preseason. I would love to see him get a shot this season, but if not, there’s still no doubt that he’s their guy moving forward. Tennessee’s defense is still loaded with one of football’s best defensive lines and an emerging secondary, but again, last year showed that they can’t do it on their own. Seriously, how do you sack a QB nine times in a playoff game and still lose? All in all, I think this is a worse team than last year, but I do believe they’re still the best team in this division. Whether or not they can exceed their potential is entirely up to them.

2nd: Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

It might not be an understatement to say that the Colts were the most disappointing team of 2021. Not in the sense that we expected them to be great and they failed, but more that they were great and then they failed. At a point last year, you could have argued that Indy was the best team in the AFC. Jonathan Taylor was running like an MVP candidate, Carson Wentz was slinging the ball with effectiveness, and the defense was truly elite. Then Wentz did that thing he always does and they lost their last two games including the embarrassment of the decade against the worst team in football in the finale to miss the playoffs entirely. Thus prompted the change at the QB position, as the Colts traded Wentz away to Washington and brought in the solid veteran Matt Ryan from the Falcons. I personally believe this is an upgrade for the Colts, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to make amends for last year’s failure. Even with an upgrade under center and perhaps the best RB in the league in the backfield, this offense has questions. The WR group is not great outside of Michael Pittman Jr., so they have to be cautious not to run JT into the ground. I do really like this defense, as they boast one of the NFL’s best front sevens and an upgraded secondary, which was already pretty good. Bringing in guys like Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore make this a better unit than it was in 2021. Still, it’s hard to put my faith in the Colts after last year. I think they’ll be neck and neck with the Titans for the division title all year long, but I’ll give the edge to the team that proved it last season.

3rd: Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14)

You know, I actually think I’m being a bit mean to the Jaguars. This was football’s worst team in 2021, but I genuinely think they improved a lot this offseason. For starters, it can’t get any worse than it was with Urban Meyer at the helm. I think the move to hire Doug Pederson as head coach was a very good one, especially as they continue to develop Trevor Lawrence into the franchise QB that we all know he can be. They improved the offensive line and receiving corps to help Lawrence out by signing All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff from Washington as well as pass-catchers like Zay Jones and Christian Kirk, who got one of the most puzzling deals I’ve ever seen. Lawrence also gets his college buddy Travis Etienne back in the backfield after missing all of his rookie season with a foot injury, and I think it’ll do wonders for this offense. I have extremely high hopes for Etienne, and if he can remain healthy, then he can truly be a difference maker. The defense still isn’t ideal, but like the offense, they made some nice pickups this summer. Signing tackle machine Foye Aluokun from Atlanta locks down the middle of the defense and bringing in Darious Williams from the Rams gives them their CB1 that has been lacking since they lost Jalen Ramsey. They emphasized that side of the ball further in the draft, most notably by taking Travon Walker with the #1 overall pick and LB Devin Lloyd later in the first round. Walker is an athletic freak with an infinitely high ceiling, and Lloyd is a solid, pro-ready linebacker. These two can make instant impacts in this league, but they could just as easily fizzle out into bust territory. It’s up to this organization to make sure that they, along with all their other young counterparts, become the players that can make the Jaguars an actual football team again.

4th: Houston Texans (3-14)

I’ll give them credit. I said the Texans would be the worst team in football last year, and they were only the third worst. Way to make me eat crow, Houston! It’s not enough to save you from being the worst team in the AFC this year, though. Unlike their division counterparts, I don’t think the Texans got any better this offseason. They’re essentially running back the same offense as last year, which wasn’t great. They were one of the worst passing offenses and the worst rushing offense in 2021, and the only new acquisition in any of those areas is rookie RB Dameon Pierce, a fourth round pick. Davis Mills is still the QB, and while I don’t think he’s horrible, I don’t think he’s going to be anything special in this league. The WR duo of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins isn’t the worst I’ve ever seen, but it’s not exactly elite. Most importantly, Houston’s defense is genuinely dreadful. It’s unfathomably bad, and will likely be the worst in the NFL this season, statistically speaking. I did like the draft acquisitions of Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre to help out the secondary, but it’ll be a while before they’re playing alongside competent players. The only area I can say they truly got better is with draft stock, as they finally traded Deshaun Watson and got three first round picks in the deal. 3 wins might be a stretch for this team. They are firmly set in the #1 overall pick sweepstakes.

AFC West

1st: Los Angeles Chargers (14-3)

Welcome to the NFL’s best division, where every team could very feasibly be above .500. There are storylines galore in the Wild West this year, and it’s going to be a treat to watch them all unfold. We start with the Chargers, who had a very Chargers-like 2021 season that ended with the most insane loss in even more insane circumstances that kept them out of the playoffs. LA knows they have a solid roster with a generational QB, but they also knew had to get better to become a true contender. They did that and then some en route to perhaps the best offseason of any team this year. The offense is largely the same, which is perfectly fine considering Justin Herbert is throwing the ball. Herbert is a top 5 QB in my opinion, and could be in for an MVP season. Austin Ekeler is a bonafide Swiss army knife out of the backfield, and the WR trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer is as good as you could ask for. They found a franchise LT in Rashawn Slater and further bolstered the line by taking guard Zion Johnson with their first round pick. But, the offense isn’t what held them back last season. It was the inexplicable incompetence of the other side of the ball that kept them from greatness. The defensive line was solid, but the linebacking core was awful, so they went out and snagged Khalil Mack from the Bears. The corners couldn’t cover a bed or force turnovers, so they brought in INT machine J.C. Jackson from the Patriots, making for a very interesting duo with Asante Samuel Jr. They gave star safety Derwin James a monster deal to help lock down the defensive backfield alongside the very solid Nasir Adderley. This team improved in every area they needed to, and their Super Bowl potential is at an all time high. It helps that the perennial powerhouse of the Chiefs was hit in a massive way this offseason. In the second year under HC Brandon Staley, I expect the Chargers to finally explode en route to one of the best seasons in the league this year. Anything short of that should be considered a failure.

2nd: Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

As I just mentioned, Kansas City was weakened in a big way this offseason. Trading Tyreek Hill may have been a necessary move to save cap and ensure solid draft picks for the next few years, but it means losing the most dynamic and irreplaceable WRs in the NFL. It removes the explosive potential of the offense, which is what their identity has been in the Patrick Mahomes era. Yes, Mahomes is still under center and Travis Kelce is still the best tight end in football, but one of the heads has been cut off the three-headed monster. I don’t see two more growing back. FA signings like Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will ensure this passing offense doesn’t disappear entirely, but it’s going to be a lot more old school and methodical than it was before. However, if the preseason is any indication, then the Chiefs can execute that to perfection. Mahomes is still going to be slinging it and getting his numbers, it just won’t be as flashy as it was before. I still really like this defense outside of some pieces in the secondary, but drafting Trent McDuffie could help that if he develops into a solid player. I just think the Chiefs are still too solid to be anything but a playoff team. I trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid more than any other QB-HC duo in the league. As long as they’re in Kansas City, this is a playoff team.

3rd: Denver Broncos (10-7)

I’m not going to say it, I promise. The Broncos had one of the more notable offseasons in the NFL, highlighted by the acquisition of Russell Wilson from the Seahawks for one of the largest packages in history. They’re going all in, and for good reason. This was one of the league’s best, young rosters on both sides of the ball. All they needed was a QB to right the ship and lead them to greatness. Russ is a pretty good guy for the job. I love the fit in Denver, and I love what they have going on around him. Javonte Williams is one of the best young RBs in football, and pass-catchers like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam have been waiting to break out. The defense is probably even better than the offense with a tremendous front seven headlined by Bradley Chubb and newcomer Randy Gregory and a sensational secondary with young stars like Pat Surtain II and the freshly-paid Justin Simmons. From top to bottom, this is one of the best rosters in football. So, why only ten wins? Well, it’s a very tough schedule, and it’s hard to assume that the Broncos will immediately be good with a brand new QB in Russ and HC in Nathaniel Hackett. I don’t know how much I buy Hackett as a head coach, and until he proves that he can get it done, I can’t go all in on this team. However, I still believe this is a playoff squad, and while their floor might be 7 or 8 wins, their ceiling is a Super Bowl.

4th: Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)

Let’s break this down for a second. It may have been by the skin of their teeth, but the Raiders were a playoff team in 2021 despite perhaps the most turmoil and internal dysfunction of any team in the league, nearly won a playoff game, and got better this offseason. So, why are they a last place, non-playoff team now? Well, it doesn’t help that the rest of the division is as good as it is. But it’s always just so hard to put any faith in this team. I do love the offseason they had, highlighted by the acquisition of football’s best WR in Davante Adams from the Packers, reuniting him with his college QB Derek Carr. This offense already had solid weapons like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow led by a QB that’s better than most people think, but adding Adams gives them one of the best units in the league. I also think the signing of Chandler Jones was one of the more under-the-radar moves of the offseason, as the duo of him and Maxx Crosby coming off the edges makes for one of the best pass rushing tandems in the league. However, like several other teams, a few stars here and there are not enough to make a team great. In the case of the Raiders, most of the rest of the team is straight up bad. This is arguably the worst offensive line in the league that just saw former first-round tackle Alex Leatherwood cut after just 2 seasons. They cannot run the ball, and it doesn’t help that the wheels are seemingly coming off of RB Josh Jacobs. And while I like the front seven, the secondary is laughably bad. In a division and conference as good as this, I don’t see the Raiders being able to compete at a high level. I think their talent is more than good enough to put up numbers and win more games than they’ll lose, but the massive holes in the roster will drag them down and keep them outside of the playoffs.

Playoff Picture

1 – Buffalo Bills (15-2)

2 – Los Angeles Chargers (14-3)

3 – Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

4 – Tennessee Titans (9-8)

5 – Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

6 – Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

7 – Denver Broncos (10-7)

There’s always plenty of shakeups in the playoffs from season to season, and I see three newcomers to the dance this year in Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Denver. Teams like Las Vegas, Indianapolis, and Miami have a great chance to sneak in, but I trust the teams I have here much more. A playoff field this stacked should make for some very entertaining games. It’ll be hard to top last postseason, but let’s see how this one will play out.

Wild Card Weekend

With the Bills getting the bye, the 2v7 game is an intriguing division matchup between the Chargers and Broncos. I have the utmost faith in Los Angeles this year, and while I like what Denver has going on, I don’t know if I trust them in a spot like this against a team as solid as the Chargers are. I’d say the Bolts pull away for a late win and finally get Justin Herbert into the deep playoffs.

The 3v6 game is another divisional battle with the Ravens going up to Cincinnati. Last year, the Bengals absolutely shredded Baltimore twice. I think the Ravens have an improved secondary, but it’s hard to imagine that Cincy would find themselves losing this one, especially at home. It might not be a blowout, but I can see a comfortable win for Joe Burrow and company. And the narratives around Lamar Jackson in the playoffs reach their apex.

The 4v5 game shapes up to be a slugfest between two of the more established AFC powers in the Titans and Chiefs. Simply put, I don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, but I do think this game would be very close. Tennessee always manages to give Kansas City fits, and they could sneak their way to victory in this one. But with Mahomes, it feels impossible to pick against the Chiefs.

Divisional Round

The Bills come off their bye and host the Chiefs in the revenge game of the century. Buffalo feels as though they were robbed in last year’s classic in Kansas City, and it’s hard to believe the fire lit under them won’t be blazing in the frigid cold at Orchard Park in January. This is a team on a mission, and if part of the mission is to dispose of the team that ruined their season a year ago, they should be inspired to do it in a huge way. Even with the greatness of the Chiefs, how can I pick against the Bills?

The second divisional game sees a heavyweight clash of two of the best young QBs in football as Justin Herbert’s Chargers host Joe Burrow’s Bengals. The two 2020 first-round signal callers will be MVP candidates this year, and the teams around them are Super Bowl caliber. So, what’s the difference maker in a game like this? Is it home field advantage? In SoFi Stadium, no such thing exists. If it’s experience, then the edge has to go to Cincinnati, right? The answer is yes, but I just have way higher expectations for the Chargers than a home playoff exit. I think this would be an instant classic that sees LA come out on top, declaring themselves as a power in the league that’s here to stay.

AFC Championship Game

So, it’s a Bills-Chargers title game in Buffalo for the right to go to Arizona and Super Bowl LVII. Just thinking about it gets me excited. However, this game might not live up to the hype. For starters, it is not easy at all for a west coast team to come all the way out east and win a game in what could very well be below 0-degree temperatures. But moreover, I just see the Bills as a team on a mission. I don’t see who or what can stop them from exorcising their demons this season. They blow the Chargers out of the water and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the “Four Falls”, where they can put the narratives to bed once and for all and finally bring a title home to Buffalo.

This is going to be another truly special in the AFC, and I can’t wait to watch it all unfold. Regardless of what happens, I have no doubt that it will be a blast to watch. If I’m wrong in these predictions, then so be it. But if I’m right, you best bet that I’ll flex that for years to come.