Tag: San Diego State Aztecs

2023 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After 66 games of a brilliant NCAA Tournament, we have reached college basketball’s biggest night. Let’s preview UConn vs. SDSU, and predict who will be cutting down the nets as the national champions.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Welcome to Monday Night. After 17 days, 66 games, countless incredible moments, and perhaps the most bizarre NCAA Tournament of all time, we have reached the National Championship. Tonight, the #4 UConn Huskies take on the #5 San Diego State Aztecs for the title in Houston, Texas.

I gave a detailed rundown of both teams in Saturday’s Final Four preview, so I’ll spare you all of the nitty gritty stuff here. Still, let’s take a look at each of tonight’s contestants before picking the game itself:

#4 UConn Huskies

UConn is en route to rarified air, having won each of its first five NCAA Tournament games by double digit points with a total margin of victory of +103. That is one of the most staggering figures I’ve ever been tasked with comprehending. They are the sixth team to accomplish this feat, with four of the previous five capping off their journey with a national title. Considering how the Huskies continue to play on both sides of the ball, it almost feels impossible picking them to slow down. Their Final Four performance against Miami went almost exactly how I anticipated, but I figured most of their dominance would come in the second half. Instead, they led from beginning to end with equal levels of dominance in each 20-minute period. Adama Sanogo was his usual self with 21 points and 10 boards on 9/11 shooting, including two shocking first half threes. Alex Karaban poured in a solid 8 points and 9 rebounds, and Donovan Clingan came off the bench for an effective 4 and 6. Even when Sanogo isn’t on the floor, the Huskies are able to dominate the inside with their physicality. The backcourt did its usual thing with Jordan Hawkins leading the way with 13 points. Tristen Newton led the game in assists with 8 to go along with 7 points, and Andre Jackson Jr. put Miami’s guards in a straitjacket on the perimeter. But perhaps the most underrated piece to this backcourt is Nahiem Alleyne, who is averaging 7.4 points per game off the bench. UConn has been able to use its depth to its advantage, and all they do is rip you apart and wear you down over the course of 40 minutes. If there’s any team built to counter that playstyle, perhaps it’s San Diego State.

#5 San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are lucky to be here after winning one of the most thrilling Final Four games I’ve ever seen at the buzzer on a beautiful baseline jumper by Lamont Butler. The game-winning shot has gotten all the attention, and seemingly everyone has forgotten that SDSU was down 14 to FAU early in the second half of that game. But they got their act together on both ends of the ball to mount an impressive comeback and reach Monday night. Butler’s shot was the highlight, but Matt Bradley had the best performance on Saturday evening, leading the team in scoring (21 points), rebounding (5 boards), field goals (5/12 shooting) made, threes made (4/8 shooting), and free throws made (7/9 shooting). He was huge to bookend the game with a blistering start and a huge presence down the stretch as the Aztecs got back in it. But that’s not to discredit the other performances on the team. Jaedon LeDee had a huge 12 points off the bench, Aguek Arop poured in 9 points, and Nathan Mensah had a huge 7 and 6. The thing that plagued SDSU was the shot-making of FAU. The Owls were shooting the lights out in the first 30 or so minutes of the game, and that got the Aztecs in the double digit hole. You can never control how well the other team is going to shoot, but that was the first time in this tournament that this great defense had gotten blitzed like that. If San Diego State plays up to its defensive par and continues to get huge offensive contributions from their star guards, they have a great shot at pulling off the upset and cutting down the nets on Monday night.

Key Matchups

If you wanna beat this UConn defense, you better pray that you hit your shots. Any time a team has made a game interesting against the Huskies in this tournament, it has been because they’ve hit enough shots to go on a run and make things uncomfortable. The problem is that once Dan Hurley calls a timeout and makes an adjustment, they’re right back to dominating you on both ends of the floor. So the question becomes this: does SDSU have the shooting to make UConn uncomfortable for a full 40 minutes? And can they keep the game close enough to pull off the upset in the end? I honestly don’t know. The Final Four game against FAU was the only game that was won more by the Aztecs offense than their defense. This is by far the toughest defense they’ve faced, as UConn has dismantled two of KenPom’s top six offensive teams (Gonzaga ranked first, Miami ranked sixth) while SDSU sits all the way down at 68th, so I don’t know how likely it is that they can replicate that performance.

SDSU’s defense won’t be easy to beat either. The best defense that UConn has faced in this tournament is Arkansas, who ranks 17th in efficiency on KenPom. The Aztecs rank fourth. If they can play similar to their performances against Creighton and Alabama, San Diego State can certainly hang around in this game. But I feel like so much more pressure is on their offense to slow down the juggernaut that is the UConn offense, which is so deep and physically imposing. The Huskies offense ranks third in KenPom, and they can beat you in every which way. I don’t know if the Aztecs elite defense has what it takes to stop UConn in the paint and on the perimeter all at once for a full game. No one else has come remotely close, and while SDSU probably has the best shot on paper, it still feels too unlikely.

My Pick

Time is a flat circle. The last time that UConn made a Final Four in Houston was in 2011, where they won it all to cap off a historic run for superstar Kemba Walker. Three years later, the Final Four was in Texas once again, this time in Arlington. Once more, a Huskies guard led the team to an improbable title run; this time it was Shabazz Napier. Now, UConn is back in Houston, one win away from a third national championship in 13 years. History and momentum are on their side, and I don’t see them being stopped.

UConn 74-58 San Diego State

Monday, 9:20 PM EST, CBS

The word I keep using is dominant, but I don’t know if that even scratches the surface of how the Huskies have played in this NCAA Tournament. They have played perhaps the best basketball I have ever seen on this stage. To win in the manner that they have against the caliber of teams that they’ve played is simply astounding. It rivals that of 2018 Villanova, who I currently have as the most impressive national champions I’ve ever watched. With this win, I think UConn can take that spot from their Big East rival. I just find it too unlikely that San Diego State will be able to keep up with them on either side of the ball. I find it much more probable that their defense slows down the Huskies offense, but how long can they keep that up for? As I said on Saturday, the second half has been where UConn has done the bulk of their damage in this tournament. Even if SDSU keeps this close in the first half with their defense, it feels inevitable that the Huskies go on a huge second half barrage to run away with it. In the unlikely event that the Aztecs take this thing down to the wire, they’d be the team I trust more, considering their late-game performances in each of their last three games. But I simply don’t see the game getting to that point. I think UConn is going to impose its will one last time in every aspect of the game en route to another double-digit victory to etch themselves as one of the greatest teams in college basketball history.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 Final Four Preview and Predictions

The 2023 NCAA Tournament has produced perhaps the wackiest, most fascinating Final Four of all time. Let’s break it down and predict how things will go down this weekend in Houston.

Cover photo taken from WFAA.

We started with 68 teams in the world’s most famous bracket, each with their own hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets in Houston. 64 games later, only four teams remain with those dreams still alive. Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and UConn have reached H-Town to compose arguably the wackiest Final Four in the long, decorated history of the NCAA Tournament. It’s only right that this wildly entertaining, upset-filled tournament is capped off with such an intriguing Final Four: the first in history with no top-3 seeds. Let’s see how these teams have reached the end of the road.

How Florida Atlantic Got Here

In nine of the previous 10 NCAA Tournaments, a team seeded seventh or lower made it all the way to the Final Four. Ninth-seeded FAU has extended that to 10 of the last 11. Despite their seeding, this isn’t a traditional Cinderella. Much was made of the Owls winning 31 games in the C-USA this season, entering the tournament as the winningest team in the field. Dusty May’s squad was ready for the challenge of being in perhaps the toughest region in this tournament. After squeaking past Memphis in round one and crushing the dreams of history-making FDU in the second round, FAU walked into Madison Square Garden and knocked off a tremendous defensive team in Tennessee and a title favorite in Kansas State to get to Houston. They’ve been down late in every game, but they always find a way to make it work down the stretch in the second half and out-execute the other team to continue racking up wins. Their balance shines brightest when it matters the most as they force timely turnovers and knock down the most important shots. Guard Johnell Davis has been the star of the show, as he has been all year long for the Owls. He leads the team in scoring in this tournament with 17.3 points per game on an efficient 45% shooting. Alijah Martin has also been a key member of the backcourt, pouring in 17 key points in the Regional Final. But perhaps the most impactful player on the floor has been Vladislav Goldin, the 7-foot sophomore who has held the paint down with tremendous results. His offense has turned up in this tournament while his defense has been impeccable. FAU’s opponents haven’t been able to deal with him yet, and if he continues to dominate the paint while the guards continue to cook, then FAU could continue this unlikely run all the way to a national championship. If that were to happen, they’d be the lowest-seeded champion in the history of the tournament, which would certainly be fitting for this year.

How San Diego State Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when SDSU drew the College of Charleston and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. The Aztecs have silenced all the doubters who had them losing at every step of the way to reach a most improbable Final Four. They easily dispatched of potential Cinderellas in Charleston and Furman before knocking off the top overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 and escaping with the narrowest of victories against red-hot Creighton in the Regional Final (no, I will not comment on the refereeing in that game). Brian Dutcher’s team has been utilizing the formula that made it so dominant in the Mountain West in 2023: defense, defense, and more defense. They’re all the way up to fourth in KenPom for defensive efficiency, and anyone who has watched a second of SDSU basketball in this tournament will tell you how suffocating they are. They defend the perimeter so well, which is key for a team that’s not too big. That propelled them to beat two of the best offenses in the field; they turned Alabama into a brick factory and clutched up late against the Bluejays in the Elite 8. That’s not to say their offense has been invisible. The guard trio of Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, and Lamont Butler has been fantastic, with Trammell being the best of the three offensively. But if the Aztecs are to become the first ever 5 seed to win it all, it will be on the back of their defense: the very thing which got them to Houston.

How Miami Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when Miami drew Drake and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. Talk about déjà vu. I personally didn’t buy into that nonsense. I thought Miami was more than talented enough to reach the second weekend. The problem I had was foreseeing them beating Houston; that seemed impossible. But after crushing Drake and Indiana, the Canes played their best game of the tournament against perhaps the best team in the field, absolutely destroying Houston in the Sweet 16. Still, I thought they’d lose to Texas in the Regional Final. I especially thought they’d lose when they fell behind by 13 in the second half of that game. But a monster comeback led by their incredible guard play sent Miami to their first ever Final Four, and the job certainly isn’t finished. This team feels like they can accomplish so much, and it’s all a part of their culture. For starters, Jim Larrañaga continues to draw blood from a stone in March. This is his second trip to the Final Four after improbably getting here with George Mason back in 2006. Last year, they made the Elite 8 as a 10 seed. Now, they’re 80 minutes away from being the first 5 seed to win a national championship. Their aforementioned guard play was their bread and butter last year, and it has carried them to this point yet again. This is clearly the best backcourt left in the field, featuring stars like ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, sharpshooting Jordan Miller, and sparkplug Nijel Pack. Each of them are averaging over 16 points per game in this tournament; Pack leads the way with 18.5. They don’t have the world’s greatest defense, but they just might have the best offense at this Final Four, and they just might have the best winning formula. Coaching and guard play wins you national championships, and I’d wager that nobody in Houston is better in either regard than the Hurricanes. The only problem they have is the juggernaut that stands in front of them.

How UConn Got Here

The Huskies are the only team that made it to Houston that I actually thought could do it. But the manner in which they’ve done it is far beyond what I could have imagined. UConn has been a buzzsaw in this tournament, destroying opponent after opponent to reach their first Final Four in nine years. Their lowest margin of victory in this tournament is 15 (!) with a total point differential of 90 (!!!). Many people thought they could’ve lost in the first round to Iona, so they ran them off the floor. Saint Mary’s posed a difficult defensive test, and they used a late run to win by double digits. Facing an Arkansas team that just knocked off top-seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16? Yawn… here’s a 23-point win. And a Regional Final against an offensive juggernaut in Gonzaga? The most dominant win of the entire tournament: a 28-point thrashing. This is a team playing some of the highest-level basketball imaginable on this stage, and they deserve to be the runaway favorites to win it all (at minus odds!). They’ve skyrocketed to the top spot on KenPom, and it feels impossible to see them losing. Dan Hurley’s team is as physically imposing and dominating as any I’ve seen in years. Just like I said before, Adama Sanogo has been by far the best player on the floor, averaging 20 points per game in the tournament and being an anchor in the paint on both sides of the ball. Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban have also been key pieces of the frontcourt. Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton have been excellent from the outside, as they have been all year long. The Huskies continue to execute their formula to perfection on both ends of the floor, and while they do so, no one can beat them. They have no excuse to not be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Houston.

My Picks

San Diego State over Florida Atlantic

Saturday, 6:09 PM EST, CBS

I’ve deliberated this for a week, but it clicked for me this morning. The Aztecs have played some sharpshooting teams in this tournament, and they turn all of their hot streaks into cold ones. They are defending the perimeter so well that they’re practically impossible to beat from the outside. They’re susceptible on the interior, which seems like it’d play right into FAU’s hands with Vlad Goldin. But I don’t think Goldin can beat SDSU all on his own. The Owls will need Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin to make a ton of shots, especially down the stretch, but that’s when the Aztecs play their tightest on the perimeter. It’s very difficult to foresee a team that shut down offenses like Alabama and Creighton lose to FAU. But if the Owls are able to consistently make shots for a full 40 minutes, then they could win this game by a comfortable margin. Their win condition is turning this game into a most unlikely shootout. I trust their shotmaking more than that of SDSU. But I think the Aztecs have a much better shot at slowing this game down and controlling the pace from start to finish, allowing their offense to settle into sets and find good looks while their defense does the rest en route to an improbable national championship appearance.

UConn over Miami

Saturday, 8:49 PM EST, CBS

This is going to be a thriller. These are by far the two best teams in the field, and while it’s a shame that this can’t be the national championship game, we’re certainly blessed to see it in the Final Four. The highlight of this game will definitely be the guard play, as it is with every Miami game. Seeing Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller square off against Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton will be a feast for the eyes, and we’re sure to see a lot of points poured in from the outside. I have no doubt that the Canes offense will do its usual thing and make things difficult for the suffocating UConn defense. They will certainly be able to hang around. The question is: how long will they be able to hang around for? We’ve seen the Huskies pull away for dominant second halves time after time. Is that bound to happen once again? I say yes. No one has made better adjustments in the final 20 minutes than Dan Hurley and UConn, and I think they’re just going to wear down the Canes in the waning moments of the game, especially down low. Adama Sanogo is a man on a mission, and I think he’s once again going to dominate the paint against a Miami defense that isn’t too imposing on the block. The Huskies are going to dominate on both ends of the floor for another second half to reach their first national championship since 2014, where they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 NCAA Tournament: Second Weekend Preview and Predictions

After an incredible, historic first two rounds of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, 16 teams and 15 games remain to decide a champion. Here’s my preview of this weekend’s Sweet 16 games and predictions for who will reach next week’s Final Four in Houston.

Cover photo taken from Chron.

After one of the craziest first weekends in the history of the NCAA Tournament, we are left with 16 teams and 15 games to decide a champion. The second weekend of March Madness usually provides some of the best drama and highest quality basketball that the sport has to offer. With the matchups we have ahead of us, I have no doubt that this will be an even better four days of college hoops than what we’ve already gotten. Here’s my preview each game of the Sweet 16 as well as how I think the Elite 8 will play out.

South Regionals

#1 Alabama vs. #5 San Diego State

Unlike the bottom half of this bracket, I pretty much nailed this. This was the matchup I predicted in this Regional Semifinal, and I’m not surprised at either team being here, nor am I shocked at how they got here. Alabama easily dispatched of #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and #8 Maryland thanks to huge second halves from both their offense and their defense. Brandon Miller looked like his usual self in the second round after a scoreless first game, and Jahvon Quinerly has looked as lethal as I knew he could, being the true X-factor on both sides of the ball. SDSU avoided the upset bid by #5 Charleston in the first round before making light work of #13 Furman in round two. Their defense has been as good as expected, and their offense has shown up in a big way, being their efficient selves by finding great looks and hitting them at a very solid clip. While I’d love to think that formula is enough to pull off this massive upset, I just don’t. You need to match the pace of the Crimson Tide on both sides of the ball if you want to keep up with them on the scoreboard. The Aztecs can slow the game down against inferior opponents like CofC and Furman, but not the best team in the field. Alabama will force SDSU to play this game at their pace, and even though I think the physicality of the Aztecs can keep them in it for a bit, they will simply be worn out by the time this one is over. A second half runaway by the Tide’s offense seems inevitable en route to the Regional Final.

Prediction: Alabama 71-60 San Diego State

#6 Creighton vs. #15 Princeton

Princeton is the third straight 15 seed to make a Sweet 16 after Oral Roberts did it in 2021 and Saint Peter’s went to the Elite 8 last year. Their style of play is much more comparable to the Golden Eagles than the Peacocks; they have simply been out-shooting their opponents and making more clutch shots. Their first round win over #2 Arizona was largely due to the Wildcats’ inability to make jumpers down the stretch, but in the second round against Missouri, Princeton shot the lights out. Missouri, like Arizona, struggled mightily from the field as well, which allowed the Ivy League champs to control the game from start to finish. But something tells me that the cold streak for the Tigers’ opponents is going to stop on Friday night. Creighton has been perhaps the most impressive offensive team in the field through two rounds. I said no one would want to see this team if they got hot, and I have been vindicated. The Bluejays’ shooting and situational offense has been a sight to behold. Ryan Nembhard has been the star of the show, including a 30-point effort against #3 Baylor on a scintillating 8-for-13 shooting performance, and Ryan Kalkbrenner has been his usual dominant self down low. They haven’t been playing the toughest of defenses, but they won’t be facing a very tough defense against Princeton either. I simply don’t see Creighton going cold and the Tigers continuing to get bailed out. I think this will be the biggest blowout of the Sweet 16 as the Bluejays gets one step closer to a Final Four.

Prediction: Creighton 79-56 Princeton

#1 Alabama vs. #6 Creighton

This would be a firework show. I hope this is the Regional Final we get simply because of how entertaining it would be. Creighton is one of the few teams in the field that can match Alabama on both sides of the ball, and it would make for an instant classic in Louisville. The Bluejays guards are arguably better than those of Alabama, and they could simply out-shoot them down the stretch. But the thing that would put the Tide over the top would obviously be Brandon Miller. I don’t know if any team has what it takes to stop him, and while I think the bigs of Creighton like Aluma and Kalkbrenner can slow him down, it might not be enough. This is the type of spot where stars shine the brightest, and there is no one more fitting than Miller to show up and show out to will his team to the Final Four for the first time in history.

Prediction: Alabama 68-64 Creighton

Midwest Regionals

#1 Houston vs. #5 Miami

This matchup is even more scintillating than I envisioned, and it’s largely due to how Miami has played in the first two rounds of this tournament. They struggled a bit with #12 Drake, but they showed up and showed out against #4 Indiana in one of the most impressive performances of any team in the field. They were able to have an inside presence defensively and limit the damage of star Hoosiers big man Trayce Jackson-Davis while the guards did their thing on the other end of the floor. Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller have turned their level of play up to 11, and it’s making all the difference on both sides of the ball. They will need to keep that level of play up with their toughest test yet awaiting them on Friday night. With Marcus Sasser not at 100%, Houston struggled with #16 Northern Kentucky, and the questions started flying. But with Sasser looking much better against #9 Auburn, the Cougars looked as dominant as we knew they could. I’d say the key piece has been Jarace Walker, who has been blocking everything he sees while being a monster on the glass and unstoppable down low offensively. With Miami’s guards largely being able to match up with Houston’s I think Walker will once again be the X-factor in this game. He’ll be up against Miami’s Norchad Omier and should have the upper hand. If the Canes can’t keep Walker in check, then they simply won’t be able to win. They need to control the paint and continue to let Wong, Miller, and Pack do their thing on the perimeter if they want to live to see another day. I don’t doubt the possibility of that happening. Those guys have proven themselves, and Jim Larranaga is a tremendous coach with a ton of success in March under his belt. But this might be too difficult of a test for them. Houston has a ton of great momentum on their side, and Sasser will only be healthier for the second weekend. This is going to be an absolute dogfight, but I’m rolling with the Cougars simply due to their better matchups, especially down low, and their superior defense.

Prediction: Houston 63-58 Miami

#2 Texas vs. #3 Xavier

This matchup is even harder to analyze and pick than it was when I was filling out my bracket this time last week. Both Texas and Xavier have had an interesting path to the Sweet 16. That of the Musketeers has definitely been a bit more strange, as they had to overcome a double-digit deficit in the final ten minutes of their first round game against #14 Kennesaw State to avoid total humiliation. They were able to right the ship thanks to some timely misses from the Owls as well as some clutch buckets and defensive moments of their own. The second round was much easier as they completely dismantled #11 Pitt to reach the second weekend. Texas’ road here has essentially been the opposite with a very easy first game and a much tougher second game. After making light work of #15 Colgate, the Longhorns had their hands full with #10 Penn State and their pesky shooting. Still, some big time shots down the stretch from guys like Marcus Carr and Dylan Disu lifted Texas out of a bad spot and into the Sweet 16. So, what to make of this game? Xavier certainly has the shot-making ability to give Texas fits like Penn State did. But what if the shots aren’t falling? They’ll have to control the game inside the arc, and they’re definitely capable, as big man Jack Nunge has had a huge tournament thus far. But he hasn’t faced a player like Timmy Allen or Dylan Disu in his first two games. I just feel like Texas matches up too well with Xavier across the board; their guards are more physical and can disrupt the game and their big men are too athletic for the Musketeers to handle. It certainly won’t be easy, but I like the Longhorns to win what will be an extremely physical game.

Prediction: Texas 56-51 Xavier

#1 Houston vs. #2 Texas

If you looked up “war” in the dictionary, a picture of this matchup would show up. With the Final Four being in Houston, I don’t see a Regional Final more fitting than Houston vs. Texas. It just feels right. Two powerhouses duking it out for the right to go home and play for a national championship is something that we deserve as college basketball fans. This was the Regional Final I predicted, but I’m changing my pick. While I love both of these offenses, I think this is the type of game where defenses thrive. Shots are going to be contested from start to finish, and the game will be won inside the arc. While I previously picked Texas to win this game, I was wildly impressed with Houston’s second half against Auburn. Jarace Walker is proving himself as one of the best players in the country who can take over any game, and it’s clear how much better the Cougars play when Marcus Sasser is on the floor. Barring something unforeseen, he will be as healthy as he’s been in weeks for this weekend’s games, and I think that will make the difference for Houston. While I love the Longhorns from top to bottom, I just don’t think they’ll have an answer for someone who plays as well as Sasser. His defensive efforts against Texas’ guards and his shotmaking ability on the other end will provide the Cougs the lift that they need to go home and try to capture that elusive national championship.

Prediction: Houston 58-57 Texas

West Regionals

#4 UConn vs. #8 Arkansas

Don’t show up if you’re soft. This is going to be an absolute war. UConn’s path to the Sweet 16 has been pretty straightforward, and I pretty much predicted it to a T. They have simply beaten teams up down low with Adama Sanogo and trusted their guards to make shots. Their first two opponents, #13 Iona and #5 Saint Mary’s, were able to deal with that for about a half or so, but over the course of a full game, they just get worn down. But now they have to face a team that can match their physicality across the board in the Razorbacks. Eric Musselman is in pursuit of his third straight Elite 8 appearance, and this team can certainly get him there. They have found their winning formula, which unfortunately involves sidelining star guard Nick Smith, but the results speak for themselves. A first round dismantling of #9 Illinois and an inspiring comeback to knock off top-seeded Kansas have them in a golden position for a potential Final Four, which has eluded them for so long. These squads match up so well with one another that it’s almost impossible to find a differentiator on either side. Signs point towards it being Adama Sanogo, and he’ll have to put together his best performance yet if the Huskies are to advance. Arkansas’ guards are just as good if not better than UConn’s, and the defensive efforts of guys like Devo Davis, Ricky Council IV, and Jordan Walsh can put the Hogs over the top. But I just don’t know if their offensive performance can match that of their defense. I know UConn’s offense will show up night in and night out. I can’t say the same thing for Arkansas. If the Razorbacks make their free throws like they did against Kansas, then they can certainly win this game. But that can’t be their only win condition. I just don’t see them stopping Sanogo down low while simultaneously keeping Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton in check. The Huskies offense will be a bit too much, and they will reach their first Regional Final in eight years.

Prediction: UConn 64-57 Arkansas

#2 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga

In last week’s West region preview, I said this was the best game we could potentially get. Now it’s here. And I cannot wait. I outlined all the history and storylines last week, but now we have an actual game to play. And I can’t really make heads or tails of it. Despite two impressive wins to get here, UCLA is limping right now. Jaylen Clark is obviously out, Adem Bona is still dealing with shoulder problems, and most recently, David Singleton suffered a scary ankle injury late in the second round against #7 Northwestern that could sideline him for this contest. The Bruins will need all hands on deck to deal with Gonzaga’s explosive offense, especially with Drew Timme dominating down low. Timme absolutely took over the second half against #6 TCU in the second round, and his elite level of play is arguably the biggest reason that the Zags are in this spot. If Bona isn’t 100%, the responsibility falls on Kenneth Nwuba, who had a nice game in Bona’s absence against #15 UNC Asheville. But that was a 15 seed. This is Gonzaga. Their offense is picking up steam quickly, and UCLA figures to be trending downwards with their injury problems. But I haven’t backed the Bruins this long and this far to give up hope now. Every sign points towards them losing this game, but I’m going to continue to stick with them… for now. I think they have more clutch shot-making with guys like Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez, and that will make the difference down the stretch. I worry about their perimeter defense without Clark and potentially Singleton, and I worry about their ability to win a shootout against perhaps the best offensive team in the field. But when the chips are down, there isn’t a team in this field I trust more than UCLA.

Prediction: UCLA 69-66 Gonzaga

#2 UCLA vs. #4 UConn

Like Houston-Texas, this was the Regional Final I predicted last week. Just like that game, I’m switching up my pick. It hurts me to bail on UCLA, but I just don’t see how they can keep winning games being as shorthanded as they are. You need all hands on deck to make a championship push in March, and when several key pieces are missing, it’s just impossible. Even if Adem Bona plays in this game, he won’t be 100%, and that means Adama Sanogo will once again be able to lead UConn to victory. I actually like UCLA’s perimeter players more than those of the Huskies, but I don’t think they’ll be able to lead the Bruins to victory by themselves. Unless this turns into a complete shootout, which I don’t think it will, I don’t see a win condition for UCLA. Their defense has to give out eventually, and if it’s not against Gonzaga, then it will be against UConn, who will be headed back to the Final Four in Houston, where they won a championship in 2011.

Prediction: UConn 62-55 UCLA

East Regionals

#4 Tennessee vs. #9 Florida Atlantic

What a strange matchup. While I didn’t think top-seeded Purdue would be playing here, I certainly didn’t expect this to be the matchup. FAU certainly had the stranger path to the Sweet 16 with a bizarre victory at the death over #8 Memphis in the first round before pulling away from history-making #16 FDU late in the second round. They definitely deserve to be here, but it hasn’t been the most difficult of roads to get to MSG. Tennessee, on the other hand, looked remarkably impressive in the first weekend with a dominant win over #13 Louisiana and a defensive masterclass against #5 Duke, who everyone thought would be here in their place. Without their star PG and defensive anchor Zakai Zeigler, I thought the Vols had no chance to beat a team like Duke. But the rest of the team stepped up in a massive way on both sides of the ball as the perimeter defense was suffocating, the paint was completely taken away, and the shots fell at all the right times. It’ll be hard to replicate such an impressive performance, but I don’t think Tennessee will need to do that much against a team like FAU. I know the Owls have a great team and have had a remarkable season, but I don’t see them keeping the magic going against such a difficult defense to beat. If they make their shots, they have a real shot. But I think the Vols have been the far more impressive team, and I’m finding it impossible to pick against them.

Prediction: Tennessee 57-51 FAU

#3 Kansas State vs. #7 Michigan State

If you like guard play, you’re going to want to be seated in front of the TV for this game with a big bucket of popcorn in front of you. Both the Wildcats and Spartans have some of the most fun, electric guard play in the country, and that’s exactly what has propelled both squads to the second weekend. Surprisingly, Michigan State has been the more dominant team in this tournament with two mightily impressive wins over #10 USC and #2 Marquette when many thought they would be one and done. Tyson Walker has been the main catalyst of this run with his impeccable scoring and his ability to run the offense perfectly and control the game in the half court. Other contributors on offense like Joey Hauser and AJ Hoggard are also making key plays on both sides of the ball. Sparty’s defense is doing a great job of disrupting shots and forcing turnovers, and the offense is cashing in on those extra possessions. It’s classic Tom Izzo ball, and it’s once again working wonderfully in March. K State is also playing the role of being slightly overlooked. I personally had them losing to #6 Kentucky, and even though they came very close to doing so, they made some clutch shots down the stretch to pull away. The main reason they were in the game late was the play of star guard Markquis Nowell, who might be the most fun player to watch in this tournament. He may stand at 5’8, but he’s almost always the best player on the floor. His handles, his passing, his shotmaking, and his overall skillset has made him a force to be reckoned with offensively, and watching him hoop is like watching poetry in motion. No one has been able to slow him down yet, but this will be the toughest test yet for the Wildcats. Unlike Kentucky, MSU has the guard play to match Nowell on the perimeter. Moreover, we saw KSU struggle mightily with Oscar Tshiebwe in the second round, and while the Spartans don’t have a force like him down low, they certainly have the size to disrupt Kansas State, the worst rebounding team in the field, in the paint. And it’s just too difficult to pick against Tom Izzo in a spot like this. Jerome Tang is doing amazing things for the K State program, but this moment might be too big for them. They will battle to the bitter end, but I think Michigan State will be able to hold on for just a little bit longer to reach the Elite 8.

Prediction: Michigan State 61-60 Kansas State

#4 Tennessee vs. #7 Michigan State

Of all the Regional Finals, I think this one is the easiest to predict. Simply put, Tennessee’s luck will run out eventually. Regardless of who they play in this spot, they will be facing an offense that won’t vanish into thin air. This is where not having Zakai Zeigler will finally bite the Vols. Even if the shots aren’t falling, a team like Michigan State can beat you with their guard play if you don’t have players to match them on the perimeter. If it’s K State in this spot, I think the same thing goes. While defense is a key component to getting you far in March, I don’t think there are any two more important factors than guard play and coaching. MSU has the clear advantage in both of those areas against Tennessee. I don’t think this moment will be too big for the Spartans, and Tyson Walker will become a household name as he leads Michigan State to yet another Final Four: their ninth (!!) under Tom Izzo.

Prediction: Michigan State 60-56 Tennessee

So, I’m predicting a #1 Alabama vs. #7 Michigan State / #1 Houston vs. #4 UConn Final Four. That’s your sign to bet against that happening! Regardless of what happens this weekend, I know we’re in for some great games and a tremendous Final Four. I’ll be here to give my thoughts on that when the time comes.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: South Region

The South Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament features an abundance of talent and fascinating teams, including my pick to win it all. Let’s break it down and preview how the South will play out.

Cover photo taken from AL.com.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the South: a region with a plethora of star power and loaded teams, including the one I think will win the national championship.

Meet the 1 Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide

Not only is Alabama a 1 seed for the first time in program history, but they are the top overall seed in the field of 68. Even if Houston had won Sunday afternoon’s AAC title game, I still think the Tide would have been in this position, considering they beat the Cougars early in the year. They have been at the top of college basketball since the start of the season, running through the non-conference before dominating the SEC en route to a regular season and tournament championship. It starts with Nate Oats, the head coach who continues to do incredible things in Tuscaloosa. Bama is in their third consecutive NCAA Tournament after getting a 2 seed in 2021 and a 6 seed last year. While neither of those teams made it as far as they would have liked, this is his best squad yet, featuring many of the same standouts from previous years. Guards Mark Sears and Jahvon Quinerly dictate the backcourt; a perfect pairing of scoring and passing. Sears ranks second on the team in scoring with 12.5 points per game while Quinerly leads the Tide in assists with 3.8 per game. Freshman forward Noah Clowney has emerged as a young star with 10.1 points and 8 rebounds per game. But the real star of the show is freshman phenom Brandon Miller, a forward who is the most transcendent player in the sport and will be a top three pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Miller leads the team in scoring and rebounding with 19.6 and 8.3 per game, respectfully. His athleticism is unmatched for his size at 6’9″ and 200 pounds. No matter where Alabama plays, he is the best player on the floor. He is the clear differentiator for this team. Miller has made headlines off the court for reasons that I won’t comment on, but it clearly hasn’t slowed down his play nor that of his teammates. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking third in efficiency according to KenPom, and play at a lightning-quick pace, ranking fourth in tempo according to KenPom. The Tide are rolling full steam ahead, and it’s hard to foresee any team in the tournament slowing them down.

Meet the Sleeper: #6 Creighton Blue Jays

Honorable Mentions: #7 Missouri, #12 College of Charleston, #13 Furman

If you told me six months ago that Creighton would be a “sleeper” in this tournament, I would be shocked. The Blue Jays were supposed to be one of the best teams in college basketball this season, being ranked 9th in the preseason AP Poll. However, a string of six consecutive losses in the non-conference absolutely doomed them. Still, they had a nice season in the rugged Big East and were able to punch their ticket to the dance as a six seed. This team shows why they had such high expectations this season in flashes; the talent is still there, it’s just a matter of them realizing their potential. Big man and two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner leads the way in the middle along with standout forward Arthur Kaluma. The backcourt is one of the strongest in the nation with SDSU transfer Baylor Scheierman alongside sophomores Trey Alexander and Ryan Nembhard. When the Jays are clicking, they are one of the toughest teams in the nation to stop on offense, and their defense is sneakily even better. When they’re on top of their game, this is one of the best teams in basketball. They’re just not on top of their game often enough to be considered a true contender in this tournament. But March is about hot streaks, and nobody will want to see Creighton if they get even the slightest bit warm.

Upset Waiting To Happen: #13 Furman over #4 Virginia

Honorable Mention: #10 Utah State over #7 Missouri

13s beating 4s are a very rare thing, but we’ve gotten some close calls in recent years. I’m not fully sold on this upset, but if you’re looking for some madness, I think you can find it in this matchup between Furman and UVA. The Paladins are a great story, winning the SoCon and getting to the dance for the first time in a whopping 43 years. They pour in a ton of points from the outside led by the high-scoring duo of Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell. Moreover, this Virginia team is over-seeded. They’re barely in KenPom’s top 35 and the top 30 of the NET. They’re a big name and a big brand, but they probably shouldn’t be a 4. Finally, UVA will be without forward Ben Vander Plas, one of they key cogs to their gameplan on both sides of the ball. They struggled mightily without him in the ACC Tournament, so it remains to be seen if they can function properly without him. The Cavaliers defense is still great and certainly not easy to score on, but if you can shoot over them and hit your threes, you can beat them. We saw UMBC do that in 2018 and Ohio do it in 2021. The blueprint to beating Tony Bennett’s packline defense has been laid out, it’s just a matter of the Dins following it.

Best Potential Games: #2 Arizona vs. #3 Baylor, #1 Alabama vs. #2 Arizona

Honorable Mention: #1 Alabama vs. #3 Baylor

It’s not wise to assume chalk in any region, but man these would be incredible matchups. Zona and Baylor have two of the best offenses in the country, and both excel offensively in different ways. The Wildcats use their athleticism and size to dominate down low while the Bears use their exquisite guard play to rip defenses apart. I would love to see this matchup, however I don’t think it’s going to happen. I put all my faith in Arizona last season just for them to go out with a whimper in the Sweet 16. This year, I see them losing in the second round. I have much higher hopes for Baylor.

Apropos of above when it comes to a potential Alabama-Arizona Regional Final. 1v2 Elite 8 games are becoming increasingly rare, but this would be one hell of a way to bring them back. Each team boasts a ridiculous offense, freak athletes, and is led by one of the sport’s best coaches. It would be appointment television and an instant classic in Louisville. But as I said before, I don’t see Zona getting here. I think it will be Alabama and Baylor fighting for a Final Four spot.

My Pick For Houston: #1 Alabama

Honorable Mentions: #2 Arizona, #3 Baylor, #6 Creighton

The Crimson Tide are simply the best team in the field of 68. They have the best player in the nation in Brandon Miller. Nate Oats is coaching like the premier HC in the sport. They are as balanced as any team I have seen. Their guard play is infallible, and their defense is soul-crushing for opposing teams. I don’t think any team in this tournament is capable of stopping Alabama’s offense for 48 minutes on any given night. This team has been primed for a title push since November, and I think they’re going to achieve what they set out to do. I have Alabama beating Baylor in the Regional Final, and they will be cutting down the nets in Houston when it’s all said and done.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Alabama over #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: A national championship push has to start somewhere.

#9 West Virginia over #8 Maryland: The Terps have been the better team in their first season under Kevin Willard, but the Mountaineers are battle-tested after going through the Big 12 gauntlet for the last several months. I think their defense will make the difference and get them to the second round.

#5 San Diego State over #12 College of Charleston: The Cougars are perhaps the single trendiest upset pick in the first round, and for good reason. They won a staggering 31 games this year en route to the best season in program history. But I don’t know if they have what it takes to win a tournament game, especially against a team as defensively sound as the Aztecs are. The MWC better hope their champion doesn’t lose in the first round again.

#4 Virginia over #13 Furman: Although I think this is the most likely upset of the first round in this region, I can’t bring myself to pick the Paladins in this spot. UVA is typically one of the more sound teams in the field under Tony Bennett, and although they’re shorthanded, their packline defense and guard play should propel them to a hard-fought win over a potential Cinderella.

#6 Creighton over #11 NC State: These teams have each had weird seasons. The Wolfpack have been floating on the bubble for months and barely snuck into the dance. The Bluejays, on the other hand, were supposed to be one of the best teams in the nation, but dwelled in the shadow of several other teams in the Big East. Still, as I outlined above, Creighton has all the talent in the world to make a run in this tournament, and I think they’ll easily dispatch of an extremely average NC State team.

#3 Baylor over #14 UCSB: The Bears boast perhaps the best backcourt in the nation with LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler, and Keyonte George. Scott Drew’s squad might not be as formidable as it was in the previous two tournaments, but I think they’re primed to make up for last year’s shortcomings. It’ll start with a fairly easy test against the Gauchos, who had a nice run to win the Big West.

#7 Missouri over #10 Utah State: Every metric in the world favors the Aggies in this game, and they are slight favorites to advance. But I saw the Tigers win several games against very good SEC teams in recent weeks, and I think their higher level of competition has prepared them for a potential second weekend push in this tournament. This one will be close from wire-to-wire, but I like Mizzou to make more plays late to advance.

#2 Arizona over #15 Princeton: Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats let me down in a huge way last year, but they are back and ready for another run. I think they’re more than capable of doing a lot of damage in this tournament, and it’ll start with what could be the biggest blowout of the first round against the Ivy League champs.

All stats taken from ESPN.