Tag: picks

Super Bowl LVII Preview and Prediction

Super Bowl LVII is finally here, featuring one of the best, most star-studded matchups we could ever ask for. Here’s my in-depth preview of what could be an instant classic, including my pick to win it all.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. The 2022 season has come and gone in the blink of an eye, featuring some of the best games, plays, and storylines in recent memory, and we have one game left to decide a champion. These playoffs have been a blast, and our two 1 seeds remain to battle in what could be an instant classic. Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. Let’s take a look at each team’s journey to get to the big game.

How the Chiefs Got Here

After falling apart in last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs had a lot of questions to answer and a lot of soul-searching to do. Trading away perhaps the best WR in football in Tyreek Hill, letting go of key veteran defenders in favor of starting rookies, and continuing to rebuild their broken offensive line led many people, including myself, to believe that Kansas City was heading for a mini-rebuild. I still thought they’d be just fine, considering they have the best quarterback of all time, an all-time mastermind head coach, and perhaps the best receiving tight end to ever play the game. But none of us saw them being this good again. Despite all of the aforementioned losses, all the Chiefs did this season was put a better product on the field en route to a nearly spotless 14-3 campaign led by QB Patrick Mahomes winning his second MVP in runaway fashion after accounting for the most total yards of any player in NFL history with 5,250 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns and 358 yards with 4 scores on the ground to boot. They don’t have a real WR1, but nobody needs one when you have Travis Kelce, who dominated defenses once again to the tune of 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. The WRs essentially operate by committee, but Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Kadarius Toney are all capable when they’re on. The offense is completely surgical, bleeding out the opposition with a thousand paper cuts. The unit has adapted and become even more effective without an explosive element, which has terrified every single defense they’ve played this season. They’ll need to bring their A-game against perhaps the best one yet, including the best pass defense in the NFL.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes put together a masterful 2022 campaign en route to his second career MVP and perhaps his second ring. (h/t Yahoo! Finance)

The defense might be young, but the vets are still doing their thing. DT Chris Jones was by far the best interior defensive linemen this season with 15.5 sacks with two key ones in the AFC title game to help the Chiefs get to this point. The rookies have shown some promise, but they will need to step up and play key roles in this game if they want to contain a well-balanced machine of an offense that the Eagles possess. It’s going to be a battle in the trenches all game long, but with the way Kansas City’s defensive front is playing, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they can get pressure and keep the rushing attack limited.

Star Chiefs DT Chris Jones has put the defense on his back with the best season of his incredible young career. (h/t KC Kingdom)

The Chiefs have the talent and the identity to win any football game in any fashion. Betting against Patrick Mahomes is a mistake that always comes back to bite. Not many people are giving them a chance in this game, which might not be smart. But it also might be warranted when you consider the team that’s lining up across from them.

How the Eagles Got Here

Like most people who pay even the slightest attention to this league, I thought the Eagles would be pretty good this year. They had an incredible offseason, making amazing moves to fill positions of need on the roster and build one of the best teams from top to bottom in the NFL. I said they would win the division with a 13-4 record, but fizzle out in the playoffs. I thought they were great but young, lacking in the experience and perhaps the talent to compete with the veteran teams of the NFC. All these months later, they have the chance to stamp themselves as one of the greatest teams of the 21st century.

It all starts with Jalen Hurts, the third year QB who took the league by storm in 2022. Many people, including myself, have doubted his ability to be an effective thrower of the football in this league. For the longest time, I was unsure of whether or not he had what it took to be a franchise guy. Any and all doubts were put swiftly to bed with his amazing, near-MVP campaign featuring 3,701 passing yards and 22 touchdowns paired with 760 yards and a whopping 13 scores on the ground. A shoulder injury derailed the end of his season and a shot at a potential MVP, but everyone knows what Hurts is capable of when he’s clicking. The shoulder may limit him in this game, but he is as competitive and determined as any athlete in all of sports, and I guarantee that he’s going to step up and show out on the biggest stage.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts broke out in his third season, becoming one of the best, most effective dual-threat signal callers in football. (h/t Andscape)

It helps that the offense around Jalen is so spectacular. The Eagles had massive holes to fill at WR dating back to 2021. They drafted Heisman-winning WR DeVonta Smith last year to help, but they still needed a bonafide WR1 in the offense. So this past draft night, they made a huge splash to trade for star pass-catcher A.J. Brown from Tennessee. The combination of Brown and Smith has proven deadly, as both finished in the top 10 for receiving yards (1,496 and 10 TD for Brown, 1,196 and 7 TD for Smith). Dallas Goedert also provides some of the best complementary play from the TE position in football. But where this team really makes its money is in the run game. The three-headed monster coming out of the backfield is headlined by Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell. Sanders leads the way with 1,269 yards, but the guys behind him put in work whenever their numbers are called. Having one of the best offensive lines in football certainly helps with that. All five starters up front could end up being Hall of Famers, and they have been far and away the best line in football this year. It’s damn near impossible to see the possibility that they crack at all, even against a great Chiefs front.

The two-headed monster at WR of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith has proven itself as one of the best receiver duos in football. (h/t Bleeding Green Nation)

And then there’s the defense, which has been one of the best in football all year long. They’re deep, they’re stacked all over the place, and they’re impossible to move the ball on. The front is malicious, led by edge rushers Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham, as well as interior men Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. The LB core, which was previously one of the worst in the league, now bolsters names like Haason Reddick, who was second in football this year with 16 sacks, Kyzir White, and T.J. Edwards. The secondary was the best in football this year, giving up less passing yards than any other team in the league (179.8/game). DBs like Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox have been locking it down for a while in Philly, but newcomers James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who the Eagles got for pennies on the dollar, have pushed this unit over the top en route to being the best in the league.

LB Haason Reddick has emerged as one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL with an ability to break the game at any given moment. (h/t Yardbarker)

The Eagles haven’t broken a sweat all year long. They get ahead in games and then bleed you to death with their run game and defense. They gave up just seven points in each playoff game, winning both by a combined score of 69-14. That’s as nice as it gets in this league. I recognize that they’ve gotten some breaks along the way, but that doesn’t make this team any worse. Nothing can do that. They are the best team in football and have been all year long. Their tallest test stands in front of them, but they are more than capable of getting the job done once again.

Key Matchups

Championships are won in the trenches. The matchups up front on both sides of the ball are going to determine this game, just as they have determined almost every Super Bowl I’ve ever watched. To me, the biggest matchup in this game is the Chiefs defensive front vs. the Eagles offensive line. It’s strength on strength: the areas in which both teams make their money. The Eagles line hasn’t been beaten once all year long. Two weeks ago, they made rather light work of one of the best defensive fronts I’ve ever seen when they pushed the 49ers around for 60 minutes. They have an admittedly easier but still very difficult task in front of them with the Chiefs front, which boasts the like of Frank Clark and Chris Jones. If Philly can push them around and open up lanes for the run game as well as keep Jalen Hurts upright long enough to make the necessary throws, then the Eagles could run away with this game. But if the Chiefs can penetrate and make Hurts and the offense uncomfortable, then the Birds will have a big problem on their hands. They love being the more physical team, getting out to an early lead, and then pounding you into the ground. If they can’t run the ball or if Hurts can’t throw with his shoulder injury, then they are finished. They do not want to fall behind in this game under any circumstances. If they do, I don’t know if they have what it takes to come back and beat Patrick Mahomes.

Another extremely imperative matchup to watch is the Chiefs young secondary going up against the plethora of weapons on the outside for the Eagles. They have struggled more than they have thrived this season, especially in the playoffs. The Jaguars gave them fits, and the Bengals shredded them. That being said, they have also made key plays when it counts, including three key interceptions in big moments across those two playoff games. I don’t think the Eagles possess a better core of weapons than Cincinnati did, but I know for a fact that this defense is susceptible to getting torn apart, and that Philly offense is more than capable of doing that to them. If they can’t contain A.J. Brown and/or DeVonta Smith, then Jalen Hurts will take advantage and throw the ball all over the yard. I still have my reservations about his shoulder issues, but he can make the easy throws. If those throws are there, then the Chiefs won’t be able to keep up. But if they can limit the passing attack and let their defensive front handle the load by dealing with the rushing attack, Kansas City might have an easier time keeping things under control and letting their offense do the heavy lifting.

I would say Patrick Mahomes going up against the best secondary in the league is something to watch, but I think we all know he’s more than capable of shredding any secondary at any time on any stage. I am never ever going to doubt his abilities, especially when the lights are brightest. It’s going to be difficult, but between his incredible ability and Andy Reid’s ability to gameplan after two weeks of preparation, I feel comfortable saying that Mahomes is going to get his game off. It’s honestly just a matter of how the other side of the ball performs.

My Pick

Last Week: 1-1

Season Total: 181-99-2

Before I get into my pick for the game, I think it’s worth noting that I have not picked a Super Bowl correctly in seven years. The last team to not let me down was the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. It has been downhill ever since. I feel fairly confident in my pick for this game, but I’ve been swayed back and forth over the last two weeks. It’s a very difficult pick to make when both teams match up so well with one another. It’s even more difficult when one team is so deep, but the other has the best football player ever lining up at QB. I’ve been thinking about it nonstop, crunching the numbers, micro-analyzing every matchup at the most granular levels, and reading into superstitions. But after all that, I’m sticking with what my gut has told me since the Championship Games went final on January 29th.

Eagles 27-20 Chiefs

Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, FOX

Simply put, the Eagles are the better football team in this game. They have the better roster from top to bottom with far less holes, if any. They execute flawlessly on both sides of the ball, and when they’ve been fully healthy like they are in this game, they’ve only been beaten once (and it was at the hands of your Washington Commanders!). I recognize that the Chiefs have more experience, perhaps the best coach in the league, the best QB to ever touch a football, and so many signs point in their direction. I told myself two weeks ago that I’d never bet against Patrick Mahomes again, but I can’t even bring myself to pick them when they’re the clear side as a 1.5-point underdog on a neutral site. I just don’t see the Eagles losing this game. Moreover, a ton of trends are in their favor. The top-tier defense almost always beats the top-tier offense in the Super Bowl. The MVP curse is real in the Super Bowl; nobody to win the award has won the big game in this century. On top of that, the three previous times that the MVP runner-up has faced the winner in the Super Bowl, the runner-up has won. Jalen Hurts is more than capable of making it four.

I do have some worries about the Eagles in this game, though. The main one lies with Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury, which has limited him severely as a passer since he returned to the lineup. He hasn’t needed to throw the ball whatsoever in the games leading up to this point, but if Philly is to win this game, he will need to make all the requisite throws in big time spots. I don’t know if the run game will be able to carry the entire load on its shoulders. Moreover, the Eagles lack Super Bowl experience in key spots. The only people on the offense who have been to this game are on the offensive line, and the only defenders who have are the rotational defensive linemen. Experience can play a very big factor in a game like this, especially when you’re facing the Chiefs, whose QB has been to 3 Super Bowls and whose coach has been to 4. They know what it’s like to lose, and they know what it’s like to win. They’ve made mistakes, and they’ve learned from them. That’s a pretty scary sight for a team full of guys in Philly who have had it pretty easy all year long.

To me, it all boils down to one thing: Patrick Mahomes will need to be Superman for the Chiefs to win this game. If they are to emerge victorious, he will have to put together the piece de resistance of his young career. I don’t think his defense has what it takes to contain the Eagles offense, so he’s going to have to put the team on his back and cut up the opposing defense and outscore Philly. He’ll likely get no favors from his run game, so it’s going to be a 50 to 60 pass attempt-type of game. As much as I know for a fact that Mahomes is capable of doing such a thing, I just feel like the wheels are going to come off at some point or another. The Eagles are a team that is built to win a championship from top to bottom. The Chiefs have too many holes to ignore, and I think that will be their undoing in this game. It pains me immensely to say it, but I have already surrendered to the idea that the Eagles are going to win their second Super Bowl in the last six years. Help me, Patrick Mahomes. You’re my only hope.

I just want to close this out by saying a huge thank you to everyone for another fantastic season. This was the first time in my three years of doing this that I was able to cover the NFL every single week from the preseason all the way to the Super Bowl, and it was a blast from start to finish. Thank you to everyone and anyone who read a piece, clicked a link, retweeted an article, or even gave me the slightest time of day. It truly means a lot as I continue to grow and try and get better at providing the best content that I possibly can. It has been amazing, and I can’t wait to keep moving forward. I hope you all had a great year, and have a great Super Bowl Sunday. I’ll see you guys in a few weeks for March Madness and the start of the baseball season. Until then!

All stats taken from ESPN.

NFC and AFC Championship Picks

Championship Sunday is finally here with two titanic matchups to determine the matchup in Super Bowl LVII. Here are my picks to get to Glendale in two weeks’ time.

Cover photo taken from NBC Sports.

Last Week: 3-1

Season Total: 180-98-2

Eagles 23-20 49ers

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, FOX

At the start of both the regular season and the playoffs, the 49ers were my pick to win the NFC. I said they were the best team in the conference, and I saw them getting to Glendale in two weeks’ time. But it feels much tougher to pick them now then it was a few weeks ago. That’s almost entirely due to how the Eagles looked last Saturday night against the Giants. After ending the regular season a bit battered and sluggish, I didn’t have a lot of faith in them to look like the team that ran circles around the league in the regular season. But they looked so much better than I could have anticipated. They look like a team on a mission. They are so damn explosive offensively, and their defense looked as good as it has all year long. Jalen Hurts’ injury is no longer a concern, and the Birds are back to looking terrifying on all fronts.

That being said, so are the Niners. They willed themselves to victory last Sunday against the Cowboys in a total team effort. It was really cool to watch. The defense was obviously remarkable and continues to be the unit that makes every difference in their games. But their weakest link has made itself apparent, and it’s Brock Purdy. He had his moments and made some nice throws last week, but he also got away with a lot that he likely won’t get away with on the road against the best defense he has ever played. If the Cowboys defense had any brains, they likely could have won the game off of those mistakes. I just don’t know what to expect out of Purdy in a spot like this. He has been a great story, but can he go on the road to an extremely hostile environment and win a playoff game against what could be the best team in the league to go to the Super Bowl? I have my doubts.

That’s one of two key matchups for me in this game; the other is in the trenches with San Francisco’s defensive front against the Eagles offensive line. Both of those units are the best in the league at their respective positions, and whoever gains the advantage will likely sway the game in the favor of their team. While I would give the edge to the Niners’ defense, I think Hurts and the offense can move around and still execute their game to put points on the board. The SF defense will get their game off as well, but does the offense have what it takes to keep up when they’re led by Brock Purdy in this spot? To a point, yes. They probably do. But I trust Jalen Hurts and the Eagles more to make the plays late to win the game. Purdy will make some mistakes, and the Birds will take advantage, even against San Francisco’s incredible defense. And they will fly all the way to Arizona.

Bengals 27-24 Chiefs

Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, CBS

At the start of the playoffs, the Bengals were my pick to win it all. I said they were the best team in the league, and I saw them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in two weeks time. Despite all the temptation in the world and so many signs to do so, I am not backing down on that now. But man, this is a hard pick on all fronts.

For starters, everyone and their mothers are backing the Bengals all of a sudden. Last week’s thumping of the Bills has everyone worshipping Joe Burrow and the rest of this team, and that makes it very difficult to pick them. Right in conjunction with that is all the doubt surrounding Patrick Mahomes after he sprained his ankle last week. This line got all the way down to Bengals -2.5 because of it. But we all know the truth. Patrick Mahomes on one leg is still better than most QBs in this league, and he will still play just fine in this game, hence the line moving back in the other direction to Chiefs -1.5. That “injury” isn’t what concerns me about the Chiefs at all. In fact, it kind of makes me more scared to pick against them. Mahomes will definitely be limited in terms of his mobility, but making him a pocket passer limits his mistakes and might make him even more surgical. Kansas City will get their game off on that side of the ball via the quick passing game. They won’t be erratic and so focused on downfield shots like Josh Allen and the Bills were last week. And I don’t know if Cincinnati will be able to stop that in Arrowhead.

On the other hand, I have no faith in KC’s ability to stop the Bengals offense. Everyone loves bringing up the stat that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs with three great performances, including in this very spot last year. He is just on another level in the playoffs, as is the rest of the offense. Even with the beat up offensive line, he gets the job done. In fact, the backups did their thing last week in Buffalo, pushing around that defense and opening up all sorts of possibilities for the run game. If they can replicate that performance against this Chiefs front, then the Bengals could have their way once again on offense. Even if they don’t, I have no doubt in the ability of the passing game to put up huge numbers and points as they always do against this secondary.

The biggest question is what Mahomes and the Chiefs offense can do in response to that. People forget that they were absolutely dominating for the first half of last year’s title game before inexplicably falling apart in the second half. That was a different offense, but this one might be even better. I find it extremely difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes in a spot like this, even on a bum ankle. But at this point, it might be harder to pick against Joe Burrow. All he does is win, and I have to see him lose to the Chiefs to believe that it’s even possible. When you combine that with the fact that I’ve been backing the Bengals for so long now and picked them to win the Super Bowl, I have to pick them in this game. It’s arduous, but necessary.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Divisional Round Picks

Only eight teams remain as we head into an absolutely stacked weekend. Here are my picks to make next week’s Championship games.

Cover photo taken from Sportcasting.

Last Week: 4-2

Season Total: 177-97-2

Chiefs 27-20 Jaguars

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NBC

In analyzing and/or picking this game, there are really only two statistics to consider. The first of which is that Andy Reid is the greatest head coach off a bye in the history of the sport. He boasts a record of 27-4 following an off week, including a perfect 3-0 record in the AFC playoffs with the Chiefs (1-1 in Super Bowls). The second of which is that both the Chiefs and every other 1 seed ever largely struggle as large favorites in the Divisional Round. 1 seeds have gone 13-25-1 ATS in this round in the last 20 years, and 8-22-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less. Some books have this spread to 8.5 or 9. So, you can bank on the Chiefs winning this game, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you or Vegas think. Moreover, we pretty much know what we’re going to get out of these teams. The Jaguars are an amazing story and are good enough to give any team in the AFC fits. Their offense is certainly capable of putting up both yards and points on an underwhelming, continuously underperforming Chiefs defense, especially through the air with Trevor Lawrence slinging it all over the yard. But they don’t have what it takes to go to Arrowhead and beat Kansas City off a bye, especially considering how dominant the Chiefs have been and how incredible Patrick Mahomes has been playing this season. The MVP-to-be enters this game after putting up the most offensive yards in a season in the history of the league. Everyone on offense is getting involved, and it all starts with the greatness of #15. After seeing how Jacksonville’s pass defense has fared in recent games, I don’t trust them to limit Mahomes in any capacity. Jacksonville might be able to keep up for a while, but this is simply too tall of a task for a young team that has overachieved this season.

Eagles 24-20 Giants

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, FOX

If last week’s divisional contests (with the exception of the last 20 or so minutes of the Seahawks-49ers game) were any indication, we’re in for a close game on Saturday night. Another reason to support that is what I said above about how 1 seeds perform ATS in the Divisional Round. Combine that with the uncertainty around Jalen Hurts’ shoulder and the general feistiness of the Giants, and you have the makings of a physical divisional bloodbath. Both of these defenses will show up and show out on the big stage. In my opinion, this game comes down to whichever offense can execute better in key moments down the stretch. New York’s offense looked surgical from start to finish last week in Minnesota, but that was against one of the league’s worst defenses. On a cold night against a fantastic Philly defense, they will have a tougher time. While there are questions around Hurts and his injury, I think he has had more than enough time off to heal and get ready for this game. If the Birds offensive line can keep him upright and get enough push on the Eagles’ patented run plays, then they could win this game comfortably. It will be tough against a stout Giants front, but I like Philly in that matchup. It will take a few key plays late from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense, but they will be the ones celebrating by the end of the night en route to the title game.

Bills 30-27 Bengals

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, CBS

This is easily my most anticipated matchup of this round, if not this entire season, and I think it’ll easily be the best game of the weekend. That’s exactly what I said when these teams met three weeks ago. I’m just as excited now as I was then, and I can’t wait to see them play a full playoff game against one another. However, my pick is different this time, and it’s hard to explain. I still think the Bengals are the better team, and I still think they’re the best team in the league. I think people who believe they’re somehow worse because they struggled in primetime against a division rival are vastly misguided. I think Joe Burrow is better than Josh Allen. I think Ja’Marr Chase might be better than Stefon Diggs. The Bengals can actually run the ball with a good backfield whereas the Bills can’t run the ball with anyone but their QB. And at this point, Cincinnati might have a better defense. On top of everything, Joe Burrow might be the best QB as an underdog in the league right now, and he has proven time and time again that he can go on the road and win these huge games against great teams. So why am I switching up now and picking Buffalo? The biggest reason is the injuries to Cincinnati’s offensive line. They will be without their three best linemen after they had spent all regular season healthy. Last week, Burrow was under duress quite a lot against a pass rush that’s only slightly better than the ones the Bills possess. Again, Burrow has proven that he can overcome this, but the Bengals have also proven that this can be their downfall in a big spot. But more than anything, the Bills just feel like they’re in the midst of a special run. They are playing inspired and the entire city of Buffalo is rallying behind them. They did not play a sharp game last week, but I think they’ll look much better on Sunday afternoon. If Josh Allen plays clean, mistake-free football (which I don’t feel comfortable with expecting), then the Bills have the offensive capability to win this game comfortably. All they have to do is get after Joe Burrow. If he has enough time to throw, he will make them pay. I just don’t see that being possible without his two starting tackles and best interior lineman. He has done it before, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads Cincy to another improbable victory. But I can’t bank on that right now.

49ers 31-20 Cowboys

Sunday, 6:30 PM, FOX

This is the big brand game of the weekend, and rightfully so. Cowboys-49ers in the playoffs is as classic as it gets and always seems to deliver. It certainly did last year in a thrilling Wild Card game in Dallas that ended on one of the most mind-boggling late-game plays and execution sequences in recent memory that sent the Cowboys home early and propelled the Niners to a near-Super Bowl run. This game feels quite different with San Francisco being the hottest team in the league, having won their last 11 games and barely breaking a sweat despite having to turn to Brock Purdy. The rookie continues to ball out with perhaps the best weapons in the league and easily the best defense in football behind him. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were overlooked by quite a lot of people, myself included, before going to Tampa and smacking the Bucs last Monday. They’re the underdogs in this game, but you can guarantee that they won’t go down without a fight. However, I feel like Monday night’s performance is once again swinging the pendulum of our perception of the Cowboys completely in the other direction. All of a sudden, people think they’re the best team in the NFC that can go on the road to play perhaps the best team in the league and win. I think we need to pump the brakes there. I think Dallas might be the most overmatched team in this entire round. They looked great against a Buccaneers team that we all knew was awful. How are they going to look against the 49ers? Will Dak Prescott be able to replicate his performance from last week against the best defense in the league? I say no. Will Dallas’ own defense be able to slow down San Francisco’s offense, which no one else has been able to do? I say no again. I think Purdy and company will have their way with the Cowboys’ susceptible defense, and Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the defense will lock up Dak and the Dallas offense for the most part en route to another fairly easy win for the Niners for them to get back to the conference title game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Wild Card Weekend Picks

The playoffs are upon us with six great games on tap in a stacked schedule that spans the whole weekend. Here’s some spoilers on how it’ll play out.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 12-4

Season Total: 173-95-2

49ers 24-13 Seahawks

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks come into this game as big underdogs after sneaking into the playoffs following the final events of the regular season. Even in a divisional playoff game, which are always so close, nobody is giving Seattle a chance. That’s a perfectly fair assessment if you ask me. Not only are they arguably the worst team in the entire postseason field, but they’re going on the road to play the hottest and perhaps the best team in the entire NFL. San Francisco has been a freight train ever since the midway point of the season, and they haven’t blinked en route to a season sweep of the team they face on Saturday. While some may say that they’re bound to cool off, I assure you that it won’t happen in this game. I don’t even see them slowing down. Their defense is the best in the league and their offense is firing on all cylinders. With Deebo Samuel back in the fold, it’s only going to be harder to stop them on that side of the ball. I love the Seahawks offense and their young pieces on defense, but I just think they’re going to be overwhelmed in what is Geno Smith’s first playoff game. Unless their corners can step up and make plays to force Brock Purdy into some turnovers, the Seahawks are going to have a long afternoon in the Bay. With Tariq Woolen dealing with an ankle problem, that seems like it’ll be the likely outcome.

Jaguars 23-20 Chargers

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NBC

It’s both very rare and extremely cool to see a playoff matchup between two of the young elite QBs that will likely run this league for years to come so early in their careers. I have no doubt that Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Herbert will live up to the hype in their respective playoff debuts. Both the Jaguars and the Chargers carry some winning momentum into this game, going a combined 9-1 in their last five games (with the Chargers’ loss coming in a game where they “rested” starters), and Jacksonville will be electric once again just one week after hosting the division-winning game against the Titans. But the news isn’t entirely good on both sides. Los Angeles’ star WR Mike Williams will miss this game, and likely the entire postseason if they were to move on, with a back problem that emerged while he was playing in the Chargers’ meaningless game last week in Denver. That will be a huge detriment to their offense, which we saw struggle mightily when not at full strength in the regular season. But Herbert will still have Keenan Allen on the outside and Austin Ekeler behind him, so the Bolts will still be able to do damage on offense. I just don’t know if it will be enough to overcome Jacksonville on the road. As I said earlier this week, the Jags essentially got their playoff jitters out of the way last week in a de facto play-in game. I think they’ll be much, much sharper on Saturday night, and I think Trevor Lawrence can have a big day against a maligned Chargers defense. Herbert will keep LA in it from start to finish, and this game could likely come down to whichever QB has the ball in their hands when the clock hits triple zeros. I just happen to trust the home team a little bit more in almost every other area.

Bills 30-13 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

If Tua Tagovailoa was playing in this game for the Dolphins, perhaps it’d be worth talking about. We all saw how thrilling the primetime clash was between these two teams just a few weeks ago when Miami was at full strength. Alas, it will be Skylar Thompson once again for the Fins, which means they don’t stand a semblance of a chance. You’d think that any QB can step in and run that star-studded offense to perfection, but that’s simply not the case here. The Dolphins are infinitely worse without Tua, and it has shown in every single game he has missed. It took until the final moments of the final game of the season for them to win a game that Tua didn’t start and finish. That’s a pretty staggering statistic. Even if he were playing in this game, I don’t think it would have been enough to pick against Buffalo. The Bills are riding high into this matchup and playing inspired football, as we saw in last week’s amazing display for Damar Hamlin. They are simply better on both sides of the ball, and you can’t expect me to believe that Josh Allen won’t launch the ball all over the place once again in the playoffs. I think he’s in for what could be a special postseason run, and I think the Bills will once again put on a show en route to another emphatic victory over a division rival.

Vikings 26-23 Giants

Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, FOX

This could very well be the most fun game of the weekend, which is pretty hilarious given the QB matchup and the nature of these two teams. The Giants are a trendy sleeper pick in these playoffs despite finishing the year going 3-6-1 in their final 10 games. The Vikings are the team that everyone expects to bow out early due to their flukey nature when they play at a time other than 1pm and/or against good teams. Quite literally anything can happen in a matchup like this. They played just three weeks ago in this exact same spot and it was wild from start to finish with Minnesota walking it off on an improbable 61-yard field goal. New York was the better team in nearly every facet in that game and still came up short. Who’s to say that it won’t go the other way this time? It really wouldn’t shock me if the Giants were to flip the script. The Vikings aren’t that much better despite having a better record and the gift of playing at home. Plus, you just never know what you’re going to get out of Kirk Cousins. Rest really isn’t a factor when you consider that both of these teams rested their starters last week. So, what gives? I say experience. Experience matters in the playoffs. Kirk Cousins has played in this spot before in much tougher environments against much tougher teams. Daniel Jones’ toughest postseason test has been… the 2018 Independence Bowl? It just feels too inconceivable to see this young, inexperienced Giants team go on the road and knock off a more skilled Vikings team. I know their defense is awful, but I don’t believe the Giants have the offensive firepower to take advantage of that. Plus, all Minnesota has heard throughout the last few weeks is how awful they are and how they’ll be one and done. That’s bulletin board material for them. I think they’ll play this game with a chip on their shoulder, and while it might not be the most convincing win in the world when it’s all said and done, they’ll be the ones moving onto San Francisco in a week’s time.

Bengals 26-14 Ravens

Sunday, 8:15 PM EST, NBC

Remember what I said about Bills-Dolphins up there? Apropos of that here. The Ravens will once again be without Lamar Jackson as he misses his sixth straight game with what they said was a one-to-three week injury. Feels fishy, doesn’t it? Their reward for this medical mishap is going back on the road with their backup QB to play perhaps the hottest and, in my opinion, best team in the league who they just got smacked by one week ago with their own chip on their shoulders caused by the decision-making of the NFL. At least this time it’ll be Tyler Huntley, right? Who cares. Huntley has looked awful all year long, especially in divisional games. It might look prettier than Anthony Brown’s performance last Sunday, but I assure you, this will still be a wash for Cincinnati. The Bengals have so much to prove in so many ways, and Joe Burrow is going to light it up in an electric home primetime playoff atmosphere. It will honestly be awesome to see, and I can’t wait for it. I do have my reservations about the trenches for the Bengals on both sides of the ball. Their makeshift offensive line will have to keep Burrow upright against a solid Ravens front. But if he can get the ball out quick to his playmakers, then Cincy will absolutely cruise into a highly anticipated rematch with the Bills.

Buccaneers 20-17 Cowboys

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

Let me get this straight. Tom Brady is hosting a playoff game against a notoriously awful playoff team, quarterback, and head coach in a primetime spot having never lost to said team… and he’s an underdog? Yeah right. To bet against Brady and the Bucs in a situation like this would be dubious at best. They may have fallen backwards into the playoffs. They may be the only team in the field with a losing record. They may have been awful for the better part of the season. And yes, I may have slandered them all year long. But I would be a complete idiot to pick the Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy-led Cowboys to go on the road and beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. I do think Dallas is the better team in this game, but it just doesn’t make sense. They ended the year on a pitiful whimper in DC last week, and Dak has had perhaps the worst year of his career. Their offense looks worse by the game and their defense isn’t doing enough to make up for that. A team like Tampa will make you pay for those kinds of mistakes. They don’t inspire the most faith in the world, but their division-clinching win over the Panthers showed me that this team shows up when it matters. Tom Brady looked incredible in that win, and if he looks even half as good as that on Monday night, then the Cowboys are positively screwed. I don’t know if that will happen; this will probably be a tight game from start to finish that’s dominated by the defenses. In that case, I’m not picking against the Bucs defense against the turnover machine known as Dak. And I’m not picking against Tom Brady.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 18 Picks

The final week of the 2022 regular season is upon us with a plethora of different playoff scenarios and postseason-deciding matchups that could allow this great season to end on a high note.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 10-5

Season Total: 161-91-2

Chiefs 27-20 Raiders

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

The only reason that I feel like this game will be remotely close is because of how much the Chiefs have struggled as big favorites this year and throughout Patrick Mahomes’ tenure in KC. As 9.5-point road favorites, a close game feels imminent. The Raiders certainly have the offensive talent to keep up with Kansas City, even if Jarrett Stidham is still the starting QB. Expect another huge game out of Davante Adams, who lit up the Chiefs secondary in primetime early in the season. But I have no doubt that the Chiefs will come away with the win. For starters, Mahomes has still never lost a road divisional game, which is one of the most staggering statistics in league history. He’s probably going to light up the statsheet in another massive performance. Moreover, the Chiefs know that the 1 seed is on the line, and they have to win to ensure homefield advantage for at least one of their playoff games. They will do what they have to do on Saturday evening in Paradise.

Jaguars 20-19 Titans

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

I feel like everybody thinks the Titans are going to get whacked in this game. Honestly, I feel that sentiment. But I know more than anything that Mike Vrabel always coaches the Titans to play their best ball in these moments. Even on the road with their 3rd string QB, I know I can expect Tennessee to fight their tail off with the division on the line. But it feels impossible to pick against the Jaguars in this spot. They have a golden opportunity to usher in a new era of football in Jacksonville and finally crown Trevor Lawrence as the savior, taking them to their first division title in his first real year of play. I think it’s going to be a slugfest throughout, and I actually think that Lawrence and the Jaguars offense will largely struggle against the stout Titans front. I feel like it’ll be the Jags’ young defense that steps up and makes a play against Josh Dobbs and the Titans offense to seal it in the end.

Buccaneers 20-10 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is one of the most irrelevant and meaningless of the week. The Buccaneers are locked into the NFC’s 4 seed no matter what happens here. The Falcons should honestly just throw the game in hopes for a better draft pick. They’re so bad that, even though I’m sure they’re going to try their best, it’s going to look like they’re doing just that.

Bills 31-20 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I find it impossible to talk about this game. It’s so difficult to talk about the Bills in any capacity right now. But as the days pass, we receive more and more great news about Damar Hamlin. On Friday, we received word that he can speak and called his teammates to cheer them on for this game. That is extremely powerful stuff. I think this whole situation has brought the Bills together, and this good news will give them the strength to go out and dominate for their brother. I think they will be uplifted in a way we rarely see in sports. The Patriots are a worthy opponent and could put up a fight as they play for their season, but it’ll be no match for a Buffalo team that is doing more than just playing football. It could truly be one of the greatest sights in sports history.

Vikings 26-16 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is also pretty irrelevant other than the fact that the Vikings could be the 2 seed by the end of the day. But we all know that’s not going to happen. I don’t think they’ll rest any starters, but even if they do, they’re not going to lose to a Bears team without Justin Fields that looks like they’re ready to have the #1 pick in the draft fall into their lap.

Bengals 26-13 Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is a bit of a strange circumstance. This game could have been the AFC North-decider. Regardless, I think this would have been a wash for the Bengals in any situation. The Ravens are still starting Tyler Huntley at QB, which means they are guaranteed to do absolutely nothing for sixty minutes on offense. Cincinnati is at home coming off an extremely emotional, difficult situation on Monday night. I think they’ll come out and be prepared to dominate just like I think the Bills will be. It won’t take much on either side of the ball to beat this boring, overrated Ravens team, but I’m very excited to see what they have in store. I hope Joe Burrow and the offense puts on a show as they head into the playoffs, where I will certainly be rooting for them.

Texans 20-10 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

If the Texans are smart, they’ll essentially throw this game. But I don’t see them doing that. Not because I don’t think they’re smart, but the Colts might just be smarter. If you’re Indianapolis, you have nothing to play for. You want to improve your own draft stock while hurting your division rival’s chances at bagging a generational franchise QB in April. I can totally see the Colts being the ones to throw the game and improve their own standing. I also feel like the Texans are just generally the better team, but we’re comparing trash to garbage here. I’m just excited to see this generational tank-off.

Dolphins 20-17 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Ah, yes. Skylar Thompson vs. Joe Flacco. Just how we want to be spending our Sunday afternoon. Neither of these teams deserve to make the playoffs. However, it feels like the chips are going to fall the Dolphins’ way. I’d have to believe that they can beat the Flacco-led Jets, who haven’t put together a performance worth a damn in months. I don’t trust them with any backup QB, but there is simply no excuse to lose a game in this spot at home. With this win and the Patriots loss, Miami will be in. They better hope Tua can come back in a week’s time.

Saints 17-13 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

With both of these teams being eliminated last week, this game means absolutely nothing. I feel like the Saints are playing slightly better football right now, especially defensively, and they don’t have to worry about winning tanking their draft pick, since the Eagles own it. Their momentum will carry them to a nice home win to close out the season, while the Panthers’ year ends on a whimper rather than a roar.

Steelers 13-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The only thing I can guarantee in this game is that it will be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest. I typically like the underdogs in games like this, and should have learned my lesson with the AFC North after both Steelers-Ravens games. But I just feel like the Steelers are the better-coached team. They’re honestly the better team overall. It’s hard to see them losing at home with their season on the line. But I really wanted to flip this pick. The Browns would absolutely love to play spoiler against their bitter rival, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they’re the ones to come away with the close win. I’m just trusting logic on this one. Because that always gets me so far, right?

Broncos 21-17 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Chargers largely have nothing to play for in this game. By the time it kicks off, they will see that the Ravens will have lost and that they will be locked into the 5 seed for a matchup with the AFC South winner next week. I can see them taking it a bit easy and likely resting their starters for the second half, if not the entire game. That feels like a very Chargers thing to do. The Broncos, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight since firing Nathaniel Hackett, and I can see them closing out this tumultuous year on a high note going into what will be a very strange offseason.

Eagles 28-16 Giants

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Regardless of any and all other outcomes on Sunday, the Giants are locked into the 6 seed in the NFC, and will likely be going to Minnesota next week. They have absolutely nothing to play for and will likely be resting their starters. Meanwhile, the Eagles are getting Jalen Hurts back as they try to lock up the NFC East and the 1 seed. So, being a 14-point road favorite makes a lot of sense. I don’t know if they cover that, but they should be able to win convincingly against the Giants’ B team as they head into their well-earned bye.

49ers 27-10 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The 49ers are still in play for the 1 seed, and while they likely won’t get it, the 2 seed is a plenty good consolation prize. Regardless of any of that, they are playing one of the worst teams in football in the comfort of their own home. They will end their fantastic regular season on a high note by dismantling a Cardinals team that is starting their 4th string QB yet again. Their defense might put up Wilt numbers as they lock in the 2 seed in the NFC.

Seahawks 23-20 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks will be fighting for their lives on Sunday evening. With a win and some help from the Lions, they’ll hold the 7 seed in the NFC and fall backwards into the playoffs. While the second part of that equation is a little less likely, I think Seattle will do what they have to do and get the necessary victory at home against a competitive Rams team. I don’t have much faith in the Seahawks as of late, but I think their coaching and generally superior talent should allow them to prevail in this spot. Whether or not they get the requisite assistance from Detroit in order to make the postseason is a different story.

Cowboys 27-14 Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

You know, at least the coaching staff has the decency to start Sam Howell at QB in this game. We might as well see what we have in the rookie before the eventual crapshoot of this offseason. It won’t help that he’s playing a great team that has something to fight for in this game. It’s going to be an embarrassing sight to say the least. FedEx will be packed with Cowboy fans and the team will get smacked in what we can only hope and pray is Dan Snyder’s final game as owner of the franchise. And this awful, painful season can finally come to a close… and I can finally rest.

Packers 23-20 Lions

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This was the game the NFL decided to flex into Sunday night to be the final game of the 2022 regular season. And I can’t wrap my head around it. Before this game even kicks off, the Lions will know whether or not they are eliminated depending on the results of the Seahawks game. If Seattle were to lose, then this is a winner-take-all game for the 7 seed. But if they don’t, then the Lions have nothing to play for. Unfortunately for Detroit, the latter seems far more likely. In any case, they can’t overcome the most powerful thing in the entire NFL: the script. The script has been out and about for the last month or so for the NFL’s beloved Buccaneers and Packers, and nothing is stopping both of those teams from making the playoffs. While I doubt either are capable of doing anything worth a damn once they get there, the league will do what they have to in order to ensure that their brands and ratings are thriving. The Lions are a better team than the Packers and should win this game by all means. It’s hard to go into Lambeau in a spot like this and win, but I think they can do it. Their offense can move the ball in the cold, and their defense might just show up against a Packers offense that is finding its stride. But we all know the NFL would much rather have Green Bay in the playoffs than Detroit. So the outcome has already been decided. What a sorry way for this incredible season to come to a close.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 17 Picks

The penultimate slate of the regular season and final one of 2022 features some of the biggest matchups of the season that can and will have immense impacts on the playoff race.

Cover photo taken from ESPN.

Last Week: 10-6

Season Total: 151-86-2

Cowboys 24-13 Titans

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

It’s only fitting that we get such a dud as the final Thursday nighter of the season. The Titans are starting Josh Dobbs at QB for whatever reason, so this one might be even more of a blowout than I expected. You gotta feel bad for Malik Willis. The Cowboys won’t have to do much in this game to come away with a win, even on the road in primetime. They do have some injuries to key players like Tony Pollard, but they should still be able to run the ball just fine. And I trust Dak Prescott to limit his mistakes and make the necessary throws to win the game. Unless Tennessee comes out and plays their best game of the season on defense, they really don’t stand a chance. That’s just fine for them, since their season comes down to next week.

Falcons 16-13 Cardinals

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is an abhorrent game between two of my least favorite teams in the league to watch. I want absolutely nothing to do with it. It’s important for draft positioning, I suppose, but other than that, it’s a complete waste of time. So, I’m just giving you this pick and moving on to more pressing matchups.

Lions 27-24 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions are probably very happy to be back home after a stretch of tough road games. Ford Field is where they thrive, especially against a putrid team like Chicago. Their offense should be firing on all cylinders once again. But their defense still concerns me. They were absolutely shredded on the ground, and now face an even better rushing attack led by Justin Fields and David Montgomery. That’s why I think that this will be close at the very least. Fields will likely run wild in this game and keep the Bears in it with his legs. But we all know Chicago simply lacks the offensive firepower in a spot like this. They don’t have it in them to win a road game against a divisional opponent fighting for their season. The Lions know what they have to do, and I think they’ll get the job done in the end.

Chiefs 27-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Remember how scorching hot the Chiefs were in that first half in Denver a few weeks ago? Yeah, I’m seeing a repeat performance of that back home at Arrowhead. This is going against one of my patented philosophies of teams bouncing back after getting embarrassed on national TV like the Broncos were on Christmas, but that philosophy only applies to teams worth a damn. Denver is not. They are going to get smacked once again by a vastly better team. It’s going to be ugly. I can’t wait to see it.

Patriots 20-17 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Dolphins will likely be without Tua Tagovailoa in this game. If the games he missed earlier this year were any indication, Miami is rather screwed without him. I think Teddy Bridgewater is a plenty capable backup, do we think he can go into Foxboro and win this pivotal divisional clash with both teams jockeying for a playoff spot? I don’t. It’s extremely hard to put any faith in the Patriots, but I feel like they can win in a spot like this, especially at home. Teddy will have his hands full with a solid Patriots defense that flies all over the place. If he can get the ball out quick to his playmakers, the Dolphins can win. It’s just hard to bet on that happening.

Giants 22-14 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I put my faith in the Colts to keep it close on Monday night. I will not make that mistake again. I do think the Giants are much worse than the Chargers are, but I don’t see a world where the Nick Foles-led Colts go on the road and beat a playoff team. Perhaps it will be closer than their last game, but they won’t come out on top. The Giants put up a good fight last Sunday, as I presumed they would, and I think they’ll be eager to get back in the win column against a lowly Indianapolis team that looks like they’re tanking. It should be an easy one.

Eagles 27-14 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Regardless of who starts under center for the Eagles in this game, it should not be close. The Saints are a nice story and have been playing well as of late, but they haven’t faced a team like Philly in a while. To expect them to go on the road and win is foolish, even if the Birds are starting Gardner Minshew again. The backup QB did his thing last week and I’m plenty confident in his ability to lead this team to wins, even against a tough New Orleans defense. I am a bit concerned about Philadelphia’s own defense, but this is a great chance for them to bounce back against Andy Dalton and a poor Saints offense. The Eagles want to lock up that 1 seed, and I think they’ll do so emphatically.

Panthers 23-16 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I told you all on Tuesday that I am fully convinced the Panthers will win this division. It all comes down to this game. If Tampa Bay wins, then they are going to the playoffs as champions of the NFC South. Carolina needs to win their final two games in order to stop that. It is remarkably difficult to go on the road and beat a division rival, especially when they’re led by Tom Brady. But I have eyes. I have watched these two teams as of late. While the Panthers have new life and play rather inspired football, the Buccaneers have never looked more dead. I don’t think they have it in them to rise to this occasion and assert themselves to clinch the division title. I think the Panthers will be able to get after Brady and the lifeless Bucs offense, doing just enough offensively to put themselves over the top in the clutch. And this division race will come down to the final day of the season.

Commanders 23-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Every time I pick us to beat an opponent convincingly, it goes awfully. I have not learned my lesson. This one feels a bit more justifiable, though. The Browns have looked awful since Deshaun Watson has returned, not being able to muster more than 13 points on offense. Now, they go on the road and play one of the more stout defenses in the league. There has been a lot of discourse around the starting QB for the Commanders, but it doesn’t matter in this game. I assure you that our defense will be the differentiating factor. I am totally in favor of Carson Wentz starting for the rest of the year, and I don’t think he’ll have to do that much to win this one. Just make the necessary throws and let your run game and defense do the rest against a team that is absolutely reeling to stay alive in the playoff picture. It is so simple. Please don’t let me down again… please.

Jaguars 19-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Jaguars have a very easy, simple path to the playoffs in front of them. This game virtually doesn’t even matter; all they have to do is beat Tennessee next week. For that reason, I think the Jags will make the mistake of looking ahead to Week 18 and struggle a bit in this game against a clearly capable Texans team. I have no doubt in their ability to come away with a win, but this will definitely be a slugfest. People forget that the Texans’ lone win before last week came against this very Jaguars team earlier this season. Jacksonville has improved greatly since then, as has Trevor Lawrence, but I think this will be a classic close divisional game. I expect Lawrence to make the plays at the end of the game to put his team over the top. But, like I said, this game is largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

49ers 34-10 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Raiders have thrown in the towel on the 2022 season. Derek Carr has been benched in a strategic move that essentially ends his tenure in silver and black. It’s almost sad, but this franchise has nothing to blame but itself. Jarrett Stidham will be their starting QB for the last two games, and his first test is against the best defense in years. It’s not going to be pretty. San Francisco will control this game from start to finish and absolutely embarrass their former Bay Area neighbors.

Seahawks 24-20 Jets

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This is a remarkably intriguing game, even though it may not seem like one on paper. Like MIA-NE and CAR-TB, this game essentially decides the season for both of these teams as they continue to fight to sneak into the playoffs. And it feels so hard to pick. These teams match up with each other really well and have had nearly identical seasons up to this point. Great rookie classes have these teams vastly overachieving, but as the season has moved forward and injuries have racked up, they find themselves on the outside looking in. So, what gives in such an even matchup? I would say home field advantage, but the Seahawks haven’t won in Seattle since before Halloween, which is pretty staggering. I would say the run games, but neither one is particularly effective. I would say the defenses, but like everything else, they are almost identical. I would give the Jets the slight advantage due to their front seven, but both of these defenses have found themselves struggling in recent weeks, and it’s hard to put faith in either one. So, it comes down to the offenses. Do you trust Mike White or Geno Smith more? It’s a very even split. With both of these teams spiraling downwards so steeply, I’d be better off flipping a coin for this pick. But I’m taking the Seahawks because I trust their coaching and their offense just a tiny bit more than I can trust New York’s. The tiniest bit more.

Vikings 23-20 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This has been one of the most impossible picks of the season. I haven’t stopped going back and forth all week. Vegas sees the Packers as the better team in this game, and that’s not a completely irresponsible take. Green Bay has strung together some nice performances to keep their season alive. Any more losses and they’re done. They need to play their best game of the year by a solid margin against a team that embarrassed them in Week 1. At home in a massive spot like this, it’s hard to envision them not coming out and doing just that. But will it be enough? The Vikings have been the chosen ones of this season, winning every game by the skin of their teeth and improbably coming out on top week after week. I don’t know when their luck is going to run out, but I don’t think it will be here. It is immensely difficult to go to Lambeau and beat the Packers in a spot like this where Green Bay has infinitely more to play for. But I just can’t pick against the Vikings while they continue to pull out win after win. I genuinely think the Packers will win this game, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Minnesota is not quite yet out of miracles.

Chargers 26-14 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The battle for Los Angeles looked infinitely better on paper in the offseason than it is right now. What should have been a potential Super Bowl preview has been reduced to another easy win for the Chargers. I do think this game can be fun though. I always enjoy watching both teams play in their own stadium. But the Chargers are infinitely better than the Rams, and I don’t see them getting complacent after clinching a playoff spot last week. They won’t have to do too much to assert themselves. If Justin Herbert continues playing lights out and their defense continues their dominant ways against a Rams offense that has looked solid but we all know is awful, they will win without breaking a sweat.

Ravens 13-10 Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Nothing like Steelers-Ravens in primetime late in the season with so much on the line. This is football heritage. We still don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be playing in this game for the Ravens, but in my opinion, that is largely irrelevant. Just a few weeks ago, we saw this matchup in Pittsburgh, and Baltimore came away with a convincing win without Lamar. At home in primetime, why can’t they do the same? Well, it’s hard to beat any team twice. It’s even harder to beat your bitter rival twice. At the very least, this game will be extremely low-scoring and close, dominated by both defenses as the lowly offenses struggle. I’m picking the Ravens because I believe their defense is ever so slightly better, and I can see them making life hell for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. If Tyler Huntley and Baltimore’s offense puts together just enough good offensive possessions, they will win. A Justin Tucker walkoff field goal feels inevitable in a spot like this.

Bengals 30-27 Bills

Monday, 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

There aren’t many games that I’ve been looking more forward to this season than this clash of giants in primetime. Getting this matchup after the Rose Bowl on Monday evening is better than any Christmas present. These are two Goliaths of their conference and the league as a whole, and feasibly could have been the AFC Championship Game last year. Perhaps it’s a preview of this year’s title game. In any case, I just know that this is going to be a classic between two of the best teams in football. It’s easy to say that it could go either way, but that’s the truth of it. The spread is paper thin for a reason. These teams match up perfectly with one another with each boasting star-studded offenses led by their stellar young QBs in Joe Burrow and Josh Allen and superstar WR1s in Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs. Both defenses are going through it with injuries but are still plenty capable. While I like Cincinnati’s offense more than Buffalo’s, I give the edge to the Bills’ defense over the Bengals’. It makes this game so hard to pick. But I have to give the edge to Burrow and the Bengals at home. These guys simply win every massive game they play in. They have been much better than the Bills in the last 3 months or so. And I trust Burrow more than I trust Allen. He is far more cautious with the ball, and he has more weapons at his disposal. The Bills will not back down, and their offense will certainly do their thing against a battered Cincy defense, but I just don’t see a world where the Bengals lose a game of this magnitude at home. Their playmakers will do what they have to do down the stretch to set up a late win in an incredible primetime environment. It’s going to be a sight to behold. I can’t wait for it.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 16 Picks

The Christmas weekend slate is more naughty than nice, but this week still has plenty of potential with some pivotal matchups as the playoff picture continues to take shape.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 13-3

Season Total: 141-80-2

Jaguars 23-16 Jets

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

These teams are trending in completely different directions. With Zach Wilson starting again for the Jets, they are going nowhere fast and crashing out of the playoffs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are primed to make a push for the division title, and a massive win on primetime would go a long way in getting there. This is going to be a very tough road test for them against a stout New York defense, but I have the utmost faith in Trevor Lawrence to get the job done. He has been one of the best QBs in the league in the last couple of months, and I think he’s going to put together another great game en route to a victory. He might not put up the biggest numbers in the world, but it won’t be necessary. There’s a better chance than not that Zach Wilson just hands Jacksonville this game on a silver platter.

Bills 27-19 Bears

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Bears have been the same team for several weeks now. They’re competitive thanks to Justin Fields’ dominance and they play everyone close, but they never win. That’s pretty much what I expect to see happen again on Sunday. The Bills are definitely good enough to put away a team like Chicago early, but for some reason, the Bears love hanging around, making them such a difficult team to bet. But there’s no way they win this game, so that makes the straight up pick significantly easier.

Browns 16-10 Saints

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Have you guys seen the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday? It’s going to be frigid, snowy, and ugly. Just take the under in this game and call it a day. In conditions like that, I have to trust the more physical team with a better run game, which is very clearly the Browns. The Saints can definitely push teams around on their best day, but they don’t have many of those nowadays. I do think this game will be extremely competitive as both teams have something to play for, with the Browns still in Wild Card contention and the Saints just a game out of first place in the division. I just like the Browns defense more, and at home, in the awful conditions, I just see Cleveland running it down New Orleans’ battered defense’s throat all game long to eke out a close, hard-fought victory.

Titans 23-17 Texans

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is gross. I want no part of this. I was this close to picking the Texans to win this game, considering how close they played Tennessee in their first matchup. While the Titans keep falling apart, I just don’t think they’re going to stoop that low. This is going to be a tough battle from start to finish for both teams, and I wouldn’t really be shocked if the Texans came away with the win. I just find it too difficult to pick against Tennessee in a spot like this. They need a win desperately, and this is a golden opportunity for them to get one at home.

Chiefs 31-20 Seahawks

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

On paper, this might seem like it could be a super entertaining shootout at Arrowhead. While I think plenty of points will be scored, “shootout” seems like a bit of a stretch. While I hate the Chiefs pass defense, the Seahawks are struggling mightily on offense. This is a golden opportunity for them to get back on track, but it’s not easy to do that on the road against Kansas City. Regardless of how their offense performs, I just don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. He has had to carry them on his back in recent weeks, but I think they can get it going again at home after a couple of tough road games. If Seattle looks like the team we saw a few weeks ago, then they have a great chance at pulling this upset. I just don’t see that happening in a spot like this.

Vikings 26-23 Giants

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Vikings let everyone hang around. They are incapable of winning a game convincingly. So this will naturally be close. But they are the better team and will win this game late, as they always do.

Bengals 24-20 Patriots

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Everyone, including me, thinks this game is going to be close. But I really don’t have a reason why. Going on the road to play the Patriots no longer poses the threat it did when I was growing up, and while their defense is very solid, they aren’t particularly good on offense. The Bengals are great on both sides of the ball and are one of the most complete teams in the league. By all means, they should blow the Pats out of the water. But going on the road in this league is difficult, no matter who you play. After the embarrassing loss last week, it only feels right that New England will hang around in this game. I don’t think they have it in them to get over the top and pull off what would be a mammoth upset to drastically alter the trajectory of the seasons of both of these teams, but they’re not going to go down without a fight.

Lions 20-17 Panthers

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to predict. Once again, the Lions are on the road against a feisty defense in a matchup that they could easily lose. Last week, it was the late-game execution of their offense which got the job done, and I don’t see why they can’t do that again. But what I’m looking forward to seeing in this game is their defensive performance. The Panthers couldn’t run the ball whatsoever last week, putting the game in the hands of Sam Darnold, which was obviously a disaster. If the Lions can replicate that, then this one really shouldn’t be close. The problem is that the Lions have the seventh worst run defense in the league. Carolina will be able to establish the run game and run their offense, so it will come down to whichever offense out-executes the other. It’s hard to pick against the Lions in that regard. Moreover, I just can’t pick Sam Darnold again. I do think the Panthers have a great shot to win this one, but I learned my mistake last week and will not make it.

Ravens 13-10 Falcons

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Ravens are still without Lamar Jackson, meaning Tyler Huntley will start once again in what should be one of the uglier games of the year on Sunday in Baltimore. There might not be 200 combined passing yards in this game between Huntley and Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder. It’s going to be a lot of running and a lot of defense for sixty minutes; think of a repeat of the Broncos-Titans game from a few months ago. Like the Browns-Saints game, I think this comes down to the better run game and defense, which both lie with the Ravens. With JK Dobbins back, their run game can hurt you in a multitude of ways, and I don’t see a rookie QB being one to break their defense. It’s going to be close and a disaster to watch, but I have no doubt that Baltimore will pull this out.

49ers 23-10 Commanders

Saturday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

This is probably our toughest game of the season. We were able to go on the road and beat the undefeated Eagles in primetime, but this feels different. Many think the 49ers are better than Philly, and playing their defense is a recipe for disaster, especially with #4 under center. I can already see the multitude of turnovers that he’s going to commit as the offense stays in quicksand for sixty minutes. It feels like San Francisco won’t really have to do that much on either side of the ball to come away with a win here. They’ll have their hands full with our defense, but they might put up more points with their own defense, so it simply will not matter. My only hope is that we can bounce back from this inevitable loss well and close out the season with two strong games at home. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Eagles 27-24 Cowboys

Saturday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

I know what you’re thinking. How can I pick Gardner Minshew to beat the Cowboys on the road? Well, my answer is pretty simple. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFL across the board, so a backup QB with multiple years in the system can probably step in and execute pretty well. Also, let’s not act like Minshew is a bum. He’s a solid player and he can certainly operate this offense effectively. The Eagles know what’s on the line; they clinch the division and 1 seed with a win. They’re going to come out and play inspired football on both sides of the ball despite the injury to Jalen Hurts. Moreover, this just feels like such a typical Cowboys loss, especially when you consider the trajectory of this team right now. They struggled mightily with the Texans at home and got embarrassed by the Jags last week. People might think they’re going to seize this opportunity to beat a backup QB and keep on pushing for a division title. But that’s not going to happen. Minshew won’t have to do much as his run game and defense carries the Birds to a win and a clinching of the best record in the NFC.

Steelers 23-20 Raiders

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network

The tragedy of Franco Harris’ death right before this game can’t be put into words. This game would have been a celebration of one of the most iconic moments in football history as the 50th anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, and Harris would’ve rightfully been honored very well. I’m sure the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh will do everything they can to honor him in a different way. It’s truly an immeasurable loss, and he will be severely missed. It’s hard to even talk about this game because of that. I think Pittsburgh would have been my pick regardless. I like the way they looked last week in Carolina, especially defensively. I do think they will struggle with defending Davante Adams, but if they can replicate their performance against the run to limit Josh Jacobs, then all they have to do is execute their offense with little to no mistakes, and they’ll be fine, regardless of who starts under center.

Dolphins 30-20 Packers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is certainly the best game on Christmas, but the bar is extremely low. This isn’t even that good of a game on paper. By all means, the Dolphins should have their way with the Packers. Their passing game should thrive back at home against a porous defense, and their own defense shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Green Bay’s mixed bag of an offense. I’m expecting a massive day from the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo against the softest secondary they’ve played in a month.

Broncos 17-16 Rams

Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, CBS

It’s really a cruel joke that the NFL’s Christmas present to its fans is this game. Nobody wants any part of this disgusting game between two of the worst teams in the league. This is one of those picks that I just drop here and move on. The only thing I know is that Baker Mayfield is going to struggle mightily against that Broncos defense. That’s the key matchup in this game, and that’s why I’m taking Denver to win.

Buccaneers 24-9 Cardinals

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

There’s really not much to say here. The Cardinals are starting their third string QB in Trace McSorley in primetime against a tough Bucs defense. Despite the memes, everyone knows he’s not very good. It’s hard to envision another 3rd stringer beating Tom Brady this season. Even in a tough road environment in primetime, I think the Buccaneers will dominate from start to finish. They need to string together some good performances if they want to hold onto this division lead, and this is a great chance for them to strengthen their grip at the top. I’d be truly shocked if they let this one slip.

Chargers 23-20 Colts

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Like the Texans and Bears, the Colts are a team that plays everyone close for some reason, but never comes away with wins. Giving up the largest comeback in the history of professional football after their star RB suffered a season-ending injury last week can’t be good for their morale. Perhaps that’s why they’re making yet another QB change, this time starting Nick Foles over Matt Ryan. I don’t know what to expect from Foles in the year of our lord 2022, but I know Indianapolis has it in them to compete at home, and I know that a Team like the Chargers will certainly let them hang around. But I’m not picking against LA right now. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, and nobody wants to see them now that they’re getting healthy. Justin Herbert will make the plays he needs to for the Chargers to win this game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 15 Picks

The final month of the regular season begins with an action-packed slate on paper featuring some pivotal playoff scenarios. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Cover photo taken from Flipboard.

Last Week: 8-5

Season Total: 128-77-2

49ers 23-14 Seahawks

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

These two teams are simply going in two completely different directions. The Seahawks have been trending downwards for a month now, and the 49ers are still flying high, even with Brock Purdy at QB. The rookie has been battling illness all week, but should be good to go in this game. But it frankly doesn’t matter. The Niners defense is the difference in every single game they play, and that will prove to be the case again on Thursday night. They’re going to suffocate the Seahawks offense that simply hasn’t been itself in recent weeks. Even in a tough road environment in primetime between division rivals, I don’t see a scenario where this game is even close.

Vikings 26-23 Colts

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, NFL Network

This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to analyze and preview. I never have any idea what to make of either of these teams. With the Colts coming off a bye, I think they can certainly compete and hang around for a while in this game. But the Vikings coming home after their tough loss last week should give them the juice they need to come out on top. I don’t have faith in them to win any game super convincingly, so I’d probably take the Colts to cover here, but I think the superior offensive talent of Minnesota will put them over the top.

Browns 19-16 Ravens

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NFL Network

I’m probably a fool for this, but it’s simply what my gut is telling me. I picked (and bet) against the Ravens last week in this exact same scenario and it came back to bite me. They’re once again short underdogs on the road against a rival with Tyler Huntley starting at QB. This time, I actually feel slightly better about picking against them. The Browns are simply better than the Steelers, and this will likely be a tougher environment for Huntley and the offense to play in. They’re not facing the world’s toughest run defense, which is good news for them, but I just have a feeling that this is the game where Cleveland finally puts it together with Deshaun Watson in the lineup. Baltimore’s defense is not invincible by any means, and while I don’t think the Browns are going to light up the scoreboard, I think they’re going to play their most complete game with Watson so far to pull out a late win.

Bills 24-17 Dolphins

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network

This is another game that just feels weird. I feel like the Bills should absolutely dominate this game, and I’m expecting next to nothing out of Tua and the Dolphins offense. But no one else is either. So maybe they’ll come out and play the Bills close, or even lead for the majority of this game. People are jumping ship on Miami after last week’s loss, so they’re motivated to show out. This is a perfect opportunity to do so and suddenly jump back into the race for the division. That being said, I just don’t see them winning this game. Buffalo is far too solid, especially at home, and their defense is playing much better. I think they should control this game for the most part, and Josh Allen will make enough plays to put them over the top. Think a repeat of last week’s game against New York with just a little bit more scoring.

Eagles 31-13 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Eagles might have their backups in this game by the third quarter. I’m pretty sure they could play the entire game and Philly would still win by multiple scores. As long as Justin Fields gets his stats in, I’m good.

Saints 23-20 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is another strange game on paper. Desmond Ridder is making his first start at QB for the Falcons, which has been long overdue, and I actually feel good about the rookie’s chances. I just think going on the road to the Superdome makes for one of the toughest environments for a rookie QB to make his first start. At the same time, I feel nothing remotely positive about the Saints. Yes, they’re coming off a bye and yes they’re coming off a tough primetime loss before that, but this team hasn’t shown us any indication that they can play a complete 60 minute game and come out with a win, especially against a frisky team like Atlanta. I really want to pick the Falcons, but something’s just telling me not to. Maybe the Saints defense puts together a great game against a rookie QB. Maybe Andy Dalton takes advantage of a porous secondary. Somehow, someway, I just see the Saints coming out on top.

Lions 27-24 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is by far the most fascinating game of the week. It’s one of the most fascinating games of the year. Which is really crazy considering it’s Lions-Jets. Neither of these teams can afford a loss if they want to stay afloat in their respective Wild Card races, and for that reason, this game is going to be played at an extremely high level. It’s going to be very physical, but I think it’s also going to be pretty high-scoring. These two offenses can let it fly, and while the Jets boast a solid secondary, they can definitely get pieced up by a WR room as deep as Detroit’s. Moreover, the Lions have proven me wrong about being able to play on the road. They no longer back down from the challenge of playing in the great outdoors, and I think they have what it takes to beat a great defense on the road. I know the Lions passing defense is atrocious, and for that reason, I think Mike White and the Jets offense will let it fly as well, but if this becomes a shootout, I trust the Lions ever so slightly more. This team is playing some of the best football in the league, and with the Jets limping after last week’s beatdown by the Bills, I think Detroit is going to take the game over with their offense and pull away another impressive win to get to .500 and right in the thick of the playoff picture.

Panthers 22-19 Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Does a 3-point win for the Panthers not seem like the most obvious possible outcome for this game? They’re coming home after a huge win last week in Seattle, and they know they have to keep on winning in order to stay alive in the NFC South. The Steelers, meanwhile, have absolutely nothing to play for, and might have to start Mitch Trubisky again as Kenny Pickett is still in concussion protocol. That’s never a good sign, especially against this stout Panthers defense. I just love the way Carolina is playing lately, and I think the crowd in Charlotte is going to be electric as their team continues this improbable playoff push.

Cowboys 26-17 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

A lot of people, including Vegas, think the Jaguars are going to play the Cowboys very close in this game. I think that argument has a lot of merit considering the play the team has been playing lately and how stellar Trevor Lawrence has been in the last couple of months. But Jacksonville is simply too up and down to trust to put together back to back great performances. Moreover, they tend to struggle against elite defenses, which is just what Dallas has. The Cowboys are probably eager to show the country that they’re not the team that just struggled to beat the worst team in football, so I expect a typical performance out of them on both sides of the ball, utilizing their run game and suffocating defense to come away with a comfortable road win.

Chiefs 30-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I know the Texans were very competitive on the road last week against a great team, but let’s be real. The Chiefs are much better than the Cowboys are. Last week was cute and all, but there’s no way Houston puts together a similar game against a vastly better team. Their defense actually plays solid ball at home, but I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to piece them up all game long and make them look like the typical Texans we’re used to seeing.

Broncos 20-17 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This might turn out to be the Backup QB Bowl as Colt McCoy will be under center for the rest of the season in Arizona after Kyler Murray’s injury and Brett Rypien might have to fill in for the concussed Russell Wilson. Regardless of who starts for Denver, they’re easily my pick in this game. They put together their best offensive game of the season last week, and I think they can keep that going against another bad defense this week, especially at home. It won’t take much to score on this Arizona team. As long as their defense bounces back from last week’s embarrassment, I think Denver should be able to hold off the Cards and pull it out in the end.

Raiders 27-23 Patriots

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This feels like such a great spot to buy low on the Raiders and sell high on the Patriots. These are two teams coming off polar opposite primetime performances; Vegas got shocked last Thursday night and New England looked very solid on Monday night. So, I’m fading the Pats. It just makes sense. I don’t think they’re as good as the team we saw on Monday night. Their offensive injuries are starting to stack up, and I simply don’t trust them to win another road game on the west coast, even if they stayed out there this week. I can’t believe I’m continuing to put faith in the Raiders, but I still like their offense and I think they can move the ball against this Patriots defense. Davante Adams needs to step up and bounce back from going ghost last week, and I think he can do just that. Combine that with a vintage Josh Jacobs performance, and the Raiders will simply outscore the Patriots to win.

Chargers 24-20 Titans

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

I honestly don’t know if this game will be this close. I’m putting some respect on the Titans, but there’s really no reason to do that. They have looked awful in the last month, and they inspire no confidence on either side of the ball. Their only bright spot is Derrick Henry, but I don’t think he can make up for this team’s shortcomings on his own. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a massive win on Sunday night and are trending in a completely different direction than Tennessee is. If their defense can put together another solid performance, then the offense will simply do the rest. This lowkey feels like a great place to fade the Chargers, but I’m not going to do it. I’m going to stick with my gut and the fact that they’re playing better football right now.

Bengals 23-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Like so many other scenarios this week, this feels like a great place to buy low on the Buccaneers. They got absolutely humiliated last week and have a great chance to come home and make amends. I’d take them to cover for that reason. But I just cannot pick them to win this game outright. Even at home, the Bengals are simply too tough of a test. Their defense is playing too well to lose to this anemic Bucs offense. The potential loss of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd might hinder Cincy’s offense in this game, but if Joe Burrow has to force feed Ja’Marr Chase for sixty minutes, I think they’ll still be just fine. I think this will come down to whoever plays better defense, and at this point, it’s much easier to trust the Bengals.

Commanders 24-13 Giants

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Here it is. One of our biggest games in years. Our first home Sunday nighter in five years. They flexed us in here for a reason. It’s a real chance to separate ourselves in the Wild Card race. A shot at revenge for the vaunted tie from two weeks ago. This might as well be a playoff game. FedEx is going to be electric, and this team is going to play their best game of the year. I just know it. The defense is going to show up and show out against a Giants offense that got smothered last week. The offense is going to put together some nice drives and do what they have to do to win. Terry McLaurin is going to light up the box score. Brian Robinson Jr. is going to run through people. I can’t wait to see it. I haven’t been this confident in the fact that we’re going win in a very long time. So, this will probably end with me in shambles.

Packers 27-17 Rams

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

When the schedule was first released, this looked like it would be one of the best games of the year. A potential playoff preview on Monday night at iconic Lambeau Field. Now, it’s a game that absolutely nobody wants to watch. Baker Mayfield will get the start for the Rams (imagine telling that to someone in April), which is not a good thing despite the feel-good nature of last Thursday’s win. He’s going to look like the typical Baker in a very tough environment. Don’t be surprised if he winds up with three picks. The Packers aren’t great and don’t inspire much confidence on either side of the ball, but they’re at home off a bye against a team that’s absolutely dreadful on both sides of the ball. I think they’re going to look just fine and win easily.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 14 Picks

After my first ever undefeated week, I feel pretty good about predicting the upcoming slate of somewhat boring and average matchups.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 14-0-1 (!!!)

Season Total: 120-72-2

Raiders 27-17 Rams

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

The Rams are a complete mess at QB right now. It doesn’t matter whether it’s John Wolford or Bryce Perkins or even Baker Mayfield. They aren’t going to win this game. The Raiders are playing great ball lately and are seeing their fourth straight win. If they stick to their bread and butter of feeding Josh Jacobs and letting Davante Adams dismantle opposing corners, they’ll be fine. Jalen Ramsey is obviously a tough test, but Adams has toasted him before, and I think he’ll do it again on Thursday night. As long as Vegas’ defense does its job against an anemic Rams offense, the Raiders should win comfortably.

Bills 24-20 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Vegas thinks this is going to be a complete wash for the Bills, and I don’t get it. For starters, the Jets beat this Bills team when they had Zach Wilson starting just a month ago. Division games are always close, especially when two great defenses are at work. And Buffalo will still be without Von Miller against a team that can run the ball pretty well. New York will certainly be competitive in this game unless Mike White turns into a bum, which I don’t see happening. If he can keep feeding Garrett Wilson and the RBs do their thing, then they definitely have a fighting chance. I don’t think it’ll be enough to win in a very tough road environment, though. Josh Allen has been playing better football in recent weeks, and that’s all the Bills need to win football games. I’m excited to see how they look, but regardless of what that is, I think it’ll be good enough to come away with this key victory.

Bengals 26-23 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

One of the great mysteries of the NFL is how Joe Burrow has never beaten the Cleveland Browns. They just have the young star QB’s number for some reason. However, all good things must come to an end. The Browns should look better on Sunday than they did last week, assuming that Deshaun Watson has gotten his jitters and rust out of the way. But this is going to be an infinitely tougher test. The Bengals are playing some of the best football in the league right now, with both sides of the ball firing on all cylinders. Cleveland has simply looked average at best on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and trusting them to keep it close (and cover), but I don’t see them shutting down Burrow and company again, especially with Ja’Marr Chase back this time.

Cowboys 38-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Not talking about this one. There’s a reason this spread is straight out of college football Next!

Lions 30-27 Vikings

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions are my absolute favorite pick of the week. This is just a perfect storm for them and everything I have been praising them for over the last month or so. They’re at home on a hot streak in which their offense has been scorching hot and their defense has been better. Jared Goff is great at home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been unstoppable. The RBs are doing their thing. This could be Jameson Williams’ coming out party as well. I do think their defense will have their hands full with the Vikings’ star-studded offense, but I find it damn near impossible to pick Minnesota in this game. They struggled mightily with Detroit in their first matchup, and that one was in Minneapolis. The Vikes have been extremely lucky in one-score games this year, and maybe a regression to the mean is in order. I think the Lions are simply going to outscore the Vikings in this one and keep the winning ways alive.

Jaguars 22-16 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I didn’t have many upset picks planned this week, but I feel better about the Jaguars than any other underdog on Sunday. They should be thanking their lucky stars that Trevor Lawrence is ok after last week’s scary sight. The Jags still got smacked, but that actually makes me feel better about picking them here. I think they’re eager to bounce back, especially in a game against a division rival. It’s going to be a tough road environment, but the Titans simply haven’t shown me anything to like as a team in recent weeks. As I said on Tuesday, this team doesn’t really do anything well anymore. At least the Jags can move the ball on offense. If their defense steps up and limits Derrick Henry, then I feel great about their chances of winning.

Eagles 24-13 Giants

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This kind of goes against my philosophy of road division games, but it feels warranted in a situation like this. The Giants are solid, but the Eagles are simply miles better than they are. I don’t see how New York musters up enough on defense to slow down this offensive juggernaut in Philly, and I think the Eagles defense should be able to limit big plays and keep the Giants at arms length. It could certainly be closer than this, but I just don’t see that happening. Philadelphia is an infinitely better team.

Steelers 13-10 Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is all sorts of gross. The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson in this game, but even if he was playing, I think this would still be my exact pick. Baltimore is just so inept offensively, running a 1960s offense and failing completely at it. It’s obviously not their fault that they have no WRs, but it doesn’t matter. They’re not going to be able to get anything going against this stout Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will certainly struggle on offense as well, but that’s simply in their DNA. However, I think they have what it takes to get the job done at home. They’ll make one or two more plays down the stretch to win this game.

Chiefs 23-10 Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

The Broncos are an unwatchable disgusting mess of a football team. Patrick Mahomes has never lost a road game to a divisional opponent. It’s a pretty simple calculus, guys. I do think Denver’s defense will stifle the Chiefs a little bit, but it won’t be enough, and it will not matter. There is no way in the world that they can win this game, or even keep it close. Like the Eagles pick, this kind of goes against my typical philosophies, but it’s totally warranted.

49ers 16-13 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

In the preseason, this was my pick for one of the NFC Divisional Round games. A lot has changed since then, but that’s still entirely possible. But it won’t be at all what I envisioned. The 49ers are down to their rookie 3rd string QB in former Iowa State star and 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. Purdy looked solid last week when he was thrown into the fire, but this is going to be a much tougher test. The Bucs defense will make life hell for him. The good news is that the 49ers defense is the best in the league by a longshot, and they will make life even worse for Tom Brady and Tampa’s offense. I mean, this is a unit that had 3 points in 55 minutes against the Saints. The Saints! San Francisco’s defense should have a field day, but the game will be close regardless considering the state of their offense. So, this game comes down to the superior defense. Pretty easy pick in that case, isn’t it? It’s going to be ugly and low scoring, but the Niners will certainly come out on top.

Seahawks 24-14 Panthers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This game feels like a total trap with the Seahawks only being favored by 4. I saw that and thought to jump all over it, but it just feels… wrong. Vegas definitely knows something we don’t. So, I won’t touch that line with a ten-foot pole. However, I will pick Seattle to win comfortably. They’re back at home against a Panthers team that has been solid and competitive, but not on the same level as the Seahawks. The loss of Kenneth Walker will hurt their offense, but they can throw the ball all the live long day. I think they’ll do just that and win comfortably.

Dolphins 30-20 Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Once again, I’m abandoning my philosophy here and simply taking the much better team to win. The Chargers just aren’t right, and their offense is pretty tough to watch while their defense gets toasted week in and week out. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses in football. They just got stifled by the best defense in the league, so they’re probably eager to put on a show in primetime. Their defense might struggle a little bit with Justin Herbert, but it might not matter if their offense lights up the scoreboard. I just don’t think LA has it in them to beat a team like Miami right now, even at home and in primetime.

Cardinals 23-17 Patriots

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

This game is so weird. It’s probably the biggest coinflip of the week. I don’t like what either of these teams are doing, and neither of them inspire confidence to win any given game on any given day. So I’m just going to take the Cardinals for the boring Raza reasons of them being at home in primetime and off a bye. I don’t exactly think their defense poses a threat, but neither does the Patriots offense. All the Cards have to do is limit their mistakes and force feed DeAndre Hopkins and James Conner, and they should be able to win. But, knowing this team, they’re probably going to fail disastrously and hilariously.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 provides the most stacked schedule of the entire season with incredible matchups and fantastic storylines all over the place. Here’s how I see this inevitably awesome slate playing out.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 11-5

Season Total: 106-72-1

Bills 23-20 Patriots

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

I really wanted to pick the Patriots outright here, seeing as though all signs point towards them winning this game. Both teams are equally rested from playing on Thanksgiving, and New England looked arguably better than Buffalo did. Now, the Pats come home for this massive showdown with a ton of implications for the division and the playoffs. I think Bill Belichick is going to have his guys ready, but as much as I want to trust that, I can’t pick Josh Allen and the Bills to lose this game. They need to come out and make a statement, and I think that’s exactly what they’re going to do. Buffalo’s defense will need to step up and play some of their best ball of the season, and without Von Miller, it’s going to be very tough. It’s going to be a slog for a while, and the Patriots will probably lead this one for the most part, but I think the Bills offense will get going in the second half to come back and steal a win in Foxboro.

Steelers 17-14 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

These teams are on par with each other in my mind. I’d typically pick the home team in a situation like this, but I think the Steelers are simply trending in a much better direction than the Falcons are. Pittsburgh’s young pieces are finally starting to gel and the defense is back to playing very well now that they’re healthy again, and I simply don’t see how Marcus Mariota and the Falcons’ anemic offense is going to put up enough points on them. The Steelers offense should do just enough, regardless of whether Najee Harris plays or not, to win this game.

Packers 24-21 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

As much as I would love to pick the Bears in this game, predicting Aaron Rodgers to lose to Chicago is simply sacrilegious. Justin Fields should be back for the Bears, which makes them the better team, but until they show me that they can actually beat the Packers, I won’t predict them to. If Fields is fully healthy and plays like his usual self, then Chicago should win this one fairly easily. This is their best opportunity to prove me wrong.

Lions 27-24 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This may look like a gross matchup on paper, but I think this game is going to be so much fun. These are two young teams that are seemingly starting to get it going, and I think there’s going to be points galore in Detroit in a very exciting contest. I’m not sure how the Jaguars are a road favorite against a Lions team that has been so solid at home, especially ATS, but I do understand the sentiment. Jacksonville looked really great last week, and Trevor Lawrence is doing his thing. But, the same can be said about the Lions. They almost beat the Bills, and we know how dangerous they are at Ford Field. I think their prowess at home is enough to put them over the top in a game like this against an opponent that’s on their level. It wouldn’t shock me if it goes the other way, seeing as though the Lions always find a way to lose games like this. Regardless, I’m actually really excited to see it play out.

Vikings 21-20 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

It’s strange to see a game like this mean so much at this point in the season, but here we are. This one is going to be extremely impactful on the playoff races in both conferences. The Vikings squeaked by for a win yet again last week, while the Jets are flying high after Mike White’s heroics last week and the continued lights-out play by their defense. I actually think this is a super solid matchup for the Jets. I think their defensive front will be able to lock up Dalvin Cook, and I think Sauce Gardner can hold his own against Justin Jefferson (in what’s probably the best WR-CB battle of the season). But it feels too difficult to pick against the Vikings at home coming off a mini-bye, especially with 1PM Kirk Cousins being activated. They should be able to do just enough offensively towards the end of this game to snatch another victory out of the jaws of defeat and inch closer to a division title.

Commanders 20-17 Giants

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

It has been six years since the last meaningful Washington-New York game this late in the season. There is so much on the line on Sunday in East Rutherford when it comes to the Wild Card race. Neither team can afford a loss, and a win puts someone firmly in position to lock up a playoff spot in the coming weeks. These teams are trending in completely opposite directions; the Giants are coming off a mini-bye after being handled by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which was their third loss in their last four games, and the Commanders are coming off their sixth win in seven weeks on Sunday against Atlanta. So, it’s no secret why Washington is favored in this one, even on the road. Vegas is right. We are the better team and there is no excuse to lose this game, even on the road. We can effectively stop everything that the Giants do well offensively, and if our offense does its job and limits its mistakes, then we will win this game. I think it all boils down to which QB loses the game for their team. I want to believe it won’t be Taylor Heinicke. And I really, really want to be proven right.

Eagles 22-17 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game looks a lot better on paper than it will actually be. I think it’ll be close, but it will be pretty ugly and run-centric from start to finish. That says a lot about these two defenses, which are both great. I think both offenses are capable of doing great things, but not in a matchup like this. The two fantastic front sevens will control this game, with both teams desperate to establish the run. So, it’ll probably come down to whoever can make the most plays through the air. There’s no doubt who the better passing team is here. The Titans have certainly found something in rookie WR Treylon Burks, but the Eagles have plenty more weapons and the vastly better QB in Jalen Hurts. At home, they will make all the plays necessary in the passing game to win this one late.

Ravens 19-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams annoy me, so the fact that they’re playing against each other this week really annoys me. The Ravens are simply the better team by a longshot, so they will obviously win this game. But it’s going to be ugly and there will not be a lot of points put on the board thanks to the level of both defenses. So, my two pieces of advice are: don’t watch this game and take the under.

Browns 27-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Deshaun Watson is back in the NFL and back in Houston. Certainly this wasn’t deliberate on the part of the league! Regardless, Watson should be thankful that he’s getting such an easy tune-up in his first game back. Houston will definitely be hostile for him on Sunday, but the Texans themselves certainly won’t be. He should have a field day against their dreadful defense, and the Browns will likely look like the great team that they have the potential to be.

Seahawks 24-13 Rams

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

It’s no surprise that more money is coming in on the Seahawks than any other team this week. Everyone knows the Rams will be completely overmatched in this game despite being somewhat competitive last week. Yes, the Seahawks looked absolutely brutal defensively on Sunday, but Los Angeles doesn’t pose any sort of offensive threat. This is a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Seattle’s defense, and their offense should have an absolute field day once again. Even in a road environment against a divisional opponent, the Seahawks should dominate this one.

49ers 20-17 Dolphins

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

What a gorgeous matchup this is. Two of the best teams in the NFL that play nearly identical football facing off in a massive matchup and potential Super Bowl preview in December. The student in Mike McDaniel vs. the teacher in Kyle Shanahan: who can execute the system better? It’s a difficult question to answer. I’m picking the 49ers for a few reasons. The first of which is their defense, which is miles better than any other in the NFL right now. Even against a phenomenal Dolphins offense, I think they’ll be able to keep things under control. The second reason is what I mentioned earlier: Kyle Shanahan is the teacher. He should know all the ins and outs of Mike McDaniel and his system, since Shanahan is the one who started it. The final reason is the most basic, Raza reason of all time, which is the 49ers being at home. But the first two are my main rationale behind picking the Niners here. I just think it’s a great matchup for them, and Miami needs to prove to me that they’re up for this incredibly difficult test.

Bengals 30-27 Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Here it is. Perhaps the game of the year in a rematch of last year’s regular season thriller and playoff classic. Two of the best QBs in the NFL facing off in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Two of the best weapons in football on display in Travis Kelce and Ja’Marr Chase. Two fantastic offenses and two improving, stout defenses facing off against one another. This game is certainly going to live up to the hype, and it might exceed it somehow. I’d typically be wrestling with myself in making this pick, but I actually feel very confident in the Bengals to win this game, and I even think they should be favored here. For starters, they’re at home. They got DJ Reader back, which immediately made the defensive front infinitely better, and the Chiefs don’t pose much of a rushing threat (although Isiah Pacheco is certainly giving them a lift). They’re getting Ja’Marr Chase back, and Joe Mixon is likely returning as well, providing their offense with the biggest possible lift. Joe Burrow has never lost to Patrick Mahomes, and I see no reason for that first loss to come here. If Cincinnati’s offensive line can keep Burrow afloat, he should have a field day against a secondary that simply hasn’t seen an offense this stacked yet this season. Look for Chase to have a massive game against Chiefs rookie DB Trent McDuffie. This is a perfect matchup for Cincy, and while Mahomes and company are obviously going to do their thing, I just think the Bengals have what it takes to win this game and stake their claim for the AFC. Bengals stocks are skyrocketing, and this is their best opportunity to keep them rising. I virtually never pick against the Chiefs, but this just makes sense to me. Which of course means it’s going to explode in my face.

Raiders 27-24 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

If I know anything about both of these teams (which I rarely ever do), then I know this game is going to be hilarious and must-see TV from start to finish on Sunday evening. They don’t make many games with much more potential to be a complete clown fiesta than this one. These teams in this time slot in a divisional showdown is just bound to create fireworks. Neither of these teams moves the needle at all. Neither one does anything particularly well other than force feed their star RBs. Neither of these defenses are good, so those RBs should pop off like they always do. That alone makes this worth the price of admission. I don’t even know how to assess this matchup or make a pick here, so I’m just going to take the Raiders for being at home and looking flashier last week. They might come back to Earth and completely crash after last week, or they could carry that momentum into this big game and pop off yet again. Regardless of what I predict, the opposite will happen.

Cowboys 27-16 Colts

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This is one of the more simple picks of the week. Dallas has extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. They have the vastly superior offense and a much better defense. They are playing some of the best football in the league. The Colts are solid and competitive, but they will simply be overmatched here from start to finish. They might hang around for a while, but I don’t think they have a semblance of a chance in this game.

Buccaneers 16-13 Saints

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

This is gross. Buccaneers-Saints games always are, but this one might be the worst of them all. For both of these teams, the ceiling is mid and the floor is unwatchable garbage. I expect this matchup to bring out the worst in both sides. It’s going to be ugly, defensive, low-scoring, and littered with turnovers. And the slightly better team will prevail. It’s pretty simple in theory, but it’s going to be awful in reality.

All stats taken from ESPN.