Tag: National Championship Game

2023 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After 66 games of a brilliant NCAA Tournament, we have reached college basketball’s biggest night. Let’s preview UConn vs. SDSU, and predict who will be cutting down the nets as the national champions.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Welcome to Monday Night. After 17 days, 66 games, countless incredible moments, and perhaps the most bizarre NCAA Tournament of all time, we have reached the National Championship. Tonight, the #4 UConn Huskies take on the #5 San Diego State Aztecs for the title in Houston, Texas.

I gave a detailed rundown of both teams in Saturday’s Final Four preview, so I’ll spare you all of the nitty gritty stuff here. Still, let’s take a look at each of tonight’s contestants before picking the game itself:

#4 UConn Huskies

UConn is en route to rarified air, having won each of its first five NCAA Tournament games by double digit points with a total margin of victory of +103. That is one of the most staggering figures I’ve ever been tasked with comprehending. They are the sixth team to accomplish this feat, with four of the previous five capping off their journey with a national title. Considering how the Huskies continue to play on both sides of the ball, it almost feels impossible picking them to slow down. Their Final Four performance against Miami went almost exactly how I anticipated, but I figured most of their dominance would come in the second half. Instead, they led from beginning to end with equal levels of dominance in each 20-minute period. Adama Sanogo was his usual self with 21 points and 10 boards on 9/11 shooting, including two shocking first half threes. Alex Karaban poured in a solid 8 points and 9 rebounds, and Donovan Clingan came off the bench for an effective 4 and 6. Even when Sanogo isn’t on the floor, the Huskies are able to dominate the inside with their physicality. The backcourt did its usual thing with Jordan Hawkins leading the way with 13 points. Tristen Newton led the game in assists with 8 to go along with 7 points, and Andre Jackson Jr. put Miami’s guards in a straitjacket on the perimeter. But perhaps the most underrated piece to this backcourt is Nahiem Alleyne, who is averaging 7.4 points per game off the bench. UConn has been able to use its depth to its advantage, and all they do is rip you apart and wear you down over the course of 40 minutes. If there’s any team built to counter that playstyle, perhaps it’s San Diego State.

#5 San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are lucky to be here after winning one of the most thrilling Final Four games I’ve ever seen at the buzzer on a beautiful baseline jumper by Lamont Butler. The game-winning shot has gotten all the attention, and seemingly everyone has forgotten that SDSU was down 14 to FAU early in the second half of that game. But they got their act together on both ends of the ball to mount an impressive comeback and reach Monday night. Butler’s shot was the highlight, but Matt Bradley had the best performance on Saturday evening, leading the team in scoring (21 points), rebounding (5 boards), field goals (5/12 shooting) made, threes made (4/8 shooting), and free throws made (7/9 shooting). He was huge to bookend the game with a blistering start and a huge presence down the stretch as the Aztecs got back in it. But that’s not to discredit the other performances on the team. Jaedon LeDee had a huge 12 points off the bench, Aguek Arop poured in 9 points, and Nathan Mensah had a huge 7 and 6. The thing that plagued SDSU was the shot-making of FAU. The Owls were shooting the lights out in the first 30 or so minutes of the game, and that got the Aztecs in the double digit hole. You can never control how well the other team is going to shoot, but that was the first time in this tournament that this great defense had gotten blitzed like that. If San Diego State plays up to its defensive par and continues to get huge offensive contributions from their star guards, they have a great shot at pulling off the upset and cutting down the nets on Monday night.

Key Matchups

If you wanna beat this UConn defense, you better pray that you hit your shots. Any time a team has made a game interesting against the Huskies in this tournament, it has been because they’ve hit enough shots to go on a run and make things uncomfortable. The problem is that once Dan Hurley calls a timeout and makes an adjustment, they’re right back to dominating you on both ends of the floor. So the question becomes this: does SDSU have the shooting to make UConn uncomfortable for a full 40 minutes? And can they keep the game close enough to pull off the upset in the end? I honestly don’t know. The Final Four game against FAU was the only game that was won more by the Aztecs offense than their defense. This is by far the toughest defense they’ve faced, as UConn has dismantled two of KenPom’s top six offensive teams (Gonzaga ranked first, Miami ranked sixth) while SDSU sits all the way down at 68th, so I don’t know how likely it is that they can replicate that performance.

SDSU’s defense won’t be easy to beat either. The best defense that UConn has faced in this tournament is Arkansas, who ranks 17th in efficiency on KenPom. The Aztecs rank fourth. If they can play similar to their performances against Creighton and Alabama, San Diego State can certainly hang around in this game. But I feel like so much more pressure is on their offense to slow down the juggernaut that is the UConn offense, which is so deep and physically imposing. The Huskies offense ranks third in KenPom, and they can beat you in every which way. I don’t know if the Aztecs elite defense has what it takes to stop UConn in the paint and on the perimeter all at once for a full game. No one else has come remotely close, and while SDSU probably has the best shot on paper, it still feels too unlikely.

My Pick

Time is a flat circle. The last time that UConn made a Final Four in Houston was in 2011, where they won it all to cap off a historic run for superstar Kemba Walker. Three years later, the Final Four was in Texas once again, this time in Arlington. Once more, a Huskies guard led the team to an improbable title run; this time it was Shabazz Napier. Now, UConn is back in Houston, one win away from a third national championship in 13 years. History and momentum are on their side, and I don’t see them being stopped.

UConn 74-58 San Diego State

Monday, 9:20 PM EST, CBS

The word I keep using is dominant, but I don’t know if that even scratches the surface of how the Huskies have played in this NCAA Tournament. They have played perhaps the best basketball I have ever seen on this stage. To win in the manner that they have against the caliber of teams that they’ve played is simply astounding. It rivals that of 2018 Villanova, who I currently have as the most impressive national champions I’ve ever watched. With this win, I think UConn can take that spot from their Big East rival. I just find it too unlikely that San Diego State will be able to keep up with them on either side of the ball. I find it much more probable that their defense slows down the Huskies offense, but how long can they keep that up for? As I said on Saturday, the second half has been where UConn has done the bulk of their damage in this tournament. Even if SDSU keeps this close in the first half with their defense, it feels inevitable that the Huskies go on a huge second half barrage to run away with it. In the unlikely event that the Aztecs take this thing down to the wire, they’d be the team I trust more, considering their late-game performances in each of their last three games. But I simply don’t see the game getting to that point. I think UConn is going to impose its will one last time in every aspect of the game en route to another double-digit victory to etch themselves as one of the greatest teams in college basketball history.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After 66 games of the NCAA Tournament, we have reached college basketball’s biggest night. Let’s preview Kansas vs. UNC, and predict who will be cutting down the nets as the national champions.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Welcome to Monday Night. After 17 days, 66 games, countless incredible moments, the greatest Cinderella run in history, and perhaps the biggest college basketball game of all time, we have reached the National Championship. Tonight, the #1 Kansas Jayhawks take on the #8 North Carolina Tar Heels for the title.

I gave a detailed rundown of both teams in Saturday’s Final Four preview, so I’ll spare you all of the nitty gritty stuff here. Still, let’s take a look at each of tonight’s contestants before picking the game itself:

#1 Kansas Jayhawks

The top seed out of the Midwest continued their dominance on Saturday night against a hobbled Villanova team. A wire-to-wire destruction of the Wildcats thanks to red-hot shooting and physical dominance propelled Kansas to its first title game since 2012, where they will try to win their first championship since 2008. The Jayhawks shot 54% from the field and 53% from downtown and simply made Nova look like they didn’t belong on the same floor, which is saying something. Guard Ochai Agbaji had his first great game of the tournament, going off for 21 points, including 6 threes. David McCormack was an unstoppable force down low, tallying 25 points and grabbing 9 rebounds. Kansas also got great performances from their key role players, like Jalen Wilson, Dajuan Harris Jr., and Christian Braun, who hit a couple of late threes to seal the deal. The usual spark-plug Remy Martin only scored 3 points and yet the Jayhawks still won by 16. Their dominance cannot be overstated. If they play at that level again tonight, then it’ll be another blowout victory, and Kansas will be back on top of the college basketball world.

#8 North Carolina Tar Heels

All UNC did on Saturday night was win what was billed as the greatest, biggest college basketball game of all time, defeating their bitter rival Duke in their first ever NCAA Tournament meeting to end Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career and reach the national championship game as an 8 seed. So yeah, nothing major. The first instance of the Tobacco Road Rivalry in March Madness lived up to the hype, with a back-and-forth affair from tip to finish in a heart-stopper. It was college basketball at its finest on the biggest stage. All of Carolina’s stars shined bright, especially Caleb Love, who once again proved to be the key to victory for the Tar Heels. 28 points on 55% shooting, including the game-icing 3 with just over 30 seconds left in the game helped put UNC over the top. Armando Bacot was awesome once again, fighting through injury to put up 11 points and an insane 21 rebounds, 8 of those being offensive. Brady Manek continued his scoring ways with 14 points, R.J. Davis was as hot as ever with 18, and even Leaky Black proved to be an incredibly important piece with 8 points and 9 boards. The Heels have proven themselves as the most impossible-to-stop team when they are at their ceiling. Their offense continues to be blisteringly hot, and their athleticism continues to put them over the top in the clutch. They’ll have their hands full with the physicality of Kansas, but if they keep up their level of play from the previous five rounds of this tournament, it could very well be a fairytale finish to Hubert Davis’ first season as head coach in Chapel Hill.

Key Matchups

My biggest observation and the most indelible image from Saturday night’s Final Four games was Kansas simply being bigger, faster, and stronger than Villanova. I haven’t seen a team this physically dominant since, ironically enough, North Carolina back in 2017. So, in my opinion, tonight’s title game comes down to physicality in both the backcourt and the frontcourt. Behind the arc, the matchup to watch is Ochai Agbaji vs. Caleb Love. Agbaji is bigger and more athletic than Love, but nobody has been more explosive in this tournament than #2 in Carolina blue. If it comes down to shotmaking in the clutch, then it’s hard to pick against Caleb Love. However, if Ochai Agbaji and the Jayhawks are able to physically dominate the backcourt throughout the game, then this one shouldn’t be close late. However, perhaps even more important than the guards in this game are the guys in the paint, namely David McCormack and Armando Bacot. Both of these players have had their way with everyone they have faced so far in the tournament. Now, the two unstoppable forces collide down low. You can easily bank on both guys getting their points, but the key here isn’t scoring. It’s rebounding. Second chance points could prove to be a huge part of this game, seeing as though both teams grab a significant amount of offensive boards. Bacot has been the biggest monster on the glass I have ever seen, but his ankle injury could limit his dominance. If he can play up to his usual par, and the Heels turn those offensive rebounds into points, then I really like Carolina’s chances. However, if his injury holds him back and allows McCormack to be the more dominant force in the paint, then there will be no stopping the Jayhawks from cutting down the nets.

My Pick

I can’t remember the last title game that felt this blue bloody. Perhaps it was Kansas’ last trip to Game 67 back in 2012, where they lost to Kentucky. The Jayhawks are hoping for a better result this time around. Luckily for them, I think they’ll get just what they want.

Kansas 75-69 North Carolina

Monday, 9:20 PM EST, TBS

As I said before, this game comes down to physicality, and nobody is more physically imposing than Kansas. I was blown away by their performance on Saturday night, and while I think it will be hard to replicate, especially against a team as great as UNC, I know this team has what it takes. It feels like this is the Jayhawks team to make up for the lost tournament in 2020, where they would have been the title favorite. This team feels like it is destined to cut down the nets. I do believe Carolina will do their thing in this game, but I just don’t know if they have it in them to win. I wouldn’t put it past them considering the teams they had to beat to get to this point and how awesome Caleb Love has been in this tournament. It would be pretty incredible if they were to win. I just have to trust what my eyes have been telling me about Kansas and roll with them to win their first championship since 2008.

We should be in for a great one tonight in New Orleans. While this hasn’t been the best tournament ever, I’m hoping that it ends on a high note. Regardless, there truly isn’t anything in the world like March Madness, and I’m glad we got to experience it in full this year after three years of craziness. It was a pleasure, and an honor.

All stats taken from ESPN.