Tag: miami hurricanes

2023 Final Four Preview and Predictions

The 2023 NCAA Tournament has produced perhaps the wackiest, most fascinating Final Four of all time. Let’s break it down and predict how things will go down this weekend in Houston.

Cover photo taken from WFAA.

We started with 68 teams in the world’s most famous bracket, each with their own hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets in Houston. 64 games later, only four teams remain with those dreams still alive. Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and UConn have reached H-Town to compose arguably the wackiest Final Four in the long, decorated history of the NCAA Tournament. It’s only right that this wildly entertaining, upset-filled tournament is capped off with such an intriguing Final Four: the first in history with no top-3 seeds. Let’s see how these teams have reached the end of the road.

How Florida Atlantic Got Here

In nine of the previous 10 NCAA Tournaments, a team seeded seventh or lower made it all the way to the Final Four. Ninth-seeded FAU has extended that to 10 of the last 11. Despite their seeding, this isn’t a traditional Cinderella. Much was made of the Owls winning 31 games in the C-USA this season, entering the tournament as the winningest team in the field. Dusty May’s squad was ready for the challenge of being in perhaps the toughest region in this tournament. After squeaking past Memphis in round one and crushing the dreams of history-making FDU in the second round, FAU walked into Madison Square Garden and knocked off a tremendous defensive team in Tennessee and a title favorite in Kansas State to get to Houston. They’ve been down late in every game, but they always find a way to make it work down the stretch in the second half and out-execute the other team to continue racking up wins. Their balance shines brightest when it matters the most as they force timely turnovers and knock down the most important shots. Guard Johnell Davis has been the star of the show, as he has been all year long for the Owls. He leads the team in scoring in this tournament with 17.3 points per game on an efficient 45% shooting. Alijah Martin has also been a key member of the backcourt, pouring in 17 key points in the Regional Final. But perhaps the most impactful player on the floor has been Vladislav Goldin, the 7-foot sophomore who has held the paint down with tremendous results. His offense has turned up in this tournament while his defense has been impeccable. FAU’s opponents haven’t been able to deal with him yet, and if he continues to dominate the paint while the guards continue to cook, then FAU could continue this unlikely run all the way to a national championship. If that were to happen, they’d be the lowest-seeded champion in the history of the tournament, which would certainly be fitting for this year.

How San Diego State Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when SDSU drew the College of Charleston and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. The Aztecs have silenced all the doubters who had them losing at every step of the way to reach a most improbable Final Four. They easily dispatched of potential Cinderellas in Charleston and Furman before knocking off the top overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 and escaping with the narrowest of victories against red-hot Creighton in the Regional Final (no, I will not comment on the refereeing in that game). Brian Dutcher’s team has been utilizing the formula that made it so dominant in the Mountain West in 2023: defense, defense, and more defense. They’re all the way up to fourth in KenPom for defensive efficiency, and anyone who has watched a second of SDSU basketball in this tournament will tell you how suffocating they are. They defend the perimeter so well, which is key for a team that’s not too big. That propelled them to beat two of the best offenses in the field; they turned Alabama into a brick factory and clutched up late against the Bluejays in the Elite 8. That’s not to say their offense has been invisible. The guard trio of Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, and Lamont Butler has been fantastic, with Trammell being the best of the three offensively. But if the Aztecs are to become the first ever 5 seed to win it all, it will be on the back of their defense: the very thing which got them to Houston.

How Miami Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when Miami drew Drake and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. Talk about déjà vu. I personally didn’t buy into that nonsense. I thought Miami was more than talented enough to reach the second weekend. The problem I had was foreseeing them beating Houston; that seemed impossible. But after crushing Drake and Indiana, the Canes played their best game of the tournament against perhaps the best team in the field, absolutely destroying Houston in the Sweet 16. Still, I thought they’d lose to Texas in the Regional Final. I especially thought they’d lose when they fell behind by 13 in the second half of that game. But a monster comeback led by their incredible guard play sent Miami to their first ever Final Four, and the job certainly isn’t finished. This team feels like they can accomplish so much, and it’s all a part of their culture. For starters, Jim Larrañaga continues to draw blood from a stone in March. This is his second trip to the Final Four after improbably getting here with George Mason back in 2006. Last year, they made the Elite 8 as a 10 seed. Now, they’re 80 minutes away from being the first 5 seed to win a national championship. Their aforementioned guard play was their bread and butter last year, and it has carried them to this point yet again. This is clearly the best backcourt left in the field, featuring stars like ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, sharpshooting Jordan Miller, and sparkplug Nijel Pack. Each of them are averaging over 16 points per game in this tournament; Pack leads the way with 18.5. They don’t have the world’s greatest defense, but they just might have the best offense at this Final Four, and they just might have the best winning formula. Coaching and guard play wins you national championships, and I’d wager that nobody in Houston is better in either regard than the Hurricanes. The only problem they have is the juggernaut that stands in front of them.

How UConn Got Here

The Huskies are the only team that made it to Houston that I actually thought could do it. But the manner in which they’ve done it is far beyond what I could have imagined. UConn has been a buzzsaw in this tournament, destroying opponent after opponent to reach their first Final Four in nine years. Their lowest margin of victory in this tournament is 15 (!) with a total point differential of 90 (!!!). Many people thought they could’ve lost in the first round to Iona, so they ran them off the floor. Saint Mary’s posed a difficult defensive test, and they used a late run to win by double digits. Facing an Arkansas team that just knocked off top-seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16? Yawn… here’s a 23-point win. And a Regional Final against an offensive juggernaut in Gonzaga? The most dominant win of the entire tournament: a 28-point thrashing. This is a team playing some of the highest-level basketball imaginable on this stage, and they deserve to be the runaway favorites to win it all (at minus odds!). They’ve skyrocketed to the top spot on KenPom, and it feels impossible to see them losing. Dan Hurley’s team is as physically imposing and dominating as any I’ve seen in years. Just like I said before, Adama Sanogo has been by far the best player on the floor, averaging 20 points per game in the tournament and being an anchor in the paint on both sides of the ball. Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban have also been key pieces of the frontcourt. Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton have been excellent from the outside, as they have been all year long. The Huskies continue to execute their formula to perfection on both ends of the floor, and while they do so, no one can beat them. They have no excuse to not be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Houston.

My Picks

San Diego State over Florida Atlantic

Saturday, 6:09 PM EST, CBS

I’ve deliberated this for a week, but it clicked for me this morning. The Aztecs have played some sharpshooting teams in this tournament, and they turn all of their hot streaks into cold ones. They are defending the perimeter so well that they’re practically impossible to beat from the outside. They’re susceptible on the interior, which seems like it’d play right into FAU’s hands with Vlad Goldin. But I don’t think Goldin can beat SDSU all on his own. The Owls will need Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin to make a ton of shots, especially down the stretch, but that’s when the Aztecs play their tightest on the perimeter. It’s very difficult to foresee a team that shut down offenses like Alabama and Creighton lose to FAU. But if the Owls are able to consistently make shots for a full 40 minutes, then they could win this game by a comfortable margin. Their win condition is turning this game into a most unlikely shootout. I trust their shotmaking more than that of SDSU. But I think the Aztecs have a much better shot at slowing this game down and controlling the pace from start to finish, allowing their offense to settle into sets and find good looks while their defense does the rest en route to an improbable national championship appearance.

UConn over Miami

Saturday, 8:49 PM EST, CBS

This is going to be a thriller. These are by far the two best teams in the field, and while it’s a shame that this can’t be the national championship game, we’re certainly blessed to see it in the Final Four. The highlight of this game will definitely be the guard play, as it is with every Miami game. Seeing Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller square off against Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton will be a feast for the eyes, and we’re sure to see a lot of points poured in from the outside. I have no doubt that the Canes offense will do its usual thing and make things difficult for the suffocating UConn defense. They will certainly be able to hang around. The question is: how long will they be able to hang around for? We’ve seen the Huskies pull away for dominant second halves time after time. Is that bound to happen once again? I say yes. No one has made better adjustments in the final 20 minutes than Dan Hurley and UConn, and I think they’re just going to wear down the Canes in the waning moments of the game, especially down low. Adama Sanogo is a man on a mission, and I think he’s once again going to dominate the paint against a Miami defense that isn’t too imposing on the block. The Huskies are going to dominate on both ends of the floor for another second half to reach their first national championship since 2014, where they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 NCAA Tournament: Second Weekend Preview and Predictions

After an incredible, historic first two rounds of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, 16 teams and 15 games remain to decide a champion. Here’s my preview of this weekend’s Sweet 16 games and predictions for who will reach next week’s Final Four in Houston.

Cover photo taken from Chron.

After one of the craziest first weekends in the history of the NCAA Tournament, we are left with 16 teams and 15 games to decide a champion. The second weekend of March Madness usually provides some of the best drama and highest quality basketball that the sport has to offer. With the matchups we have ahead of us, I have no doubt that this will be an even better four days of college hoops than what we’ve already gotten. Here’s my preview each game of the Sweet 16 as well as how I think the Elite 8 will play out.

South Regionals

#1 Alabama vs. #5 San Diego State

Unlike the bottom half of this bracket, I pretty much nailed this. This was the matchup I predicted in this Regional Semifinal, and I’m not surprised at either team being here, nor am I shocked at how they got here. Alabama easily dispatched of #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and #8 Maryland thanks to huge second halves from both their offense and their defense. Brandon Miller looked like his usual self in the second round after a scoreless first game, and Jahvon Quinerly has looked as lethal as I knew he could, being the true X-factor on both sides of the ball. SDSU avoided the upset bid by #5 Charleston in the first round before making light work of #13 Furman in round two. Their defense has been as good as expected, and their offense has shown up in a big way, being their efficient selves by finding great looks and hitting them at a very solid clip. While I’d love to think that formula is enough to pull off this massive upset, I just don’t. You need to match the pace of the Crimson Tide on both sides of the ball if you want to keep up with them on the scoreboard. The Aztecs can slow the game down against inferior opponents like CofC and Furman, but not the best team in the field. Alabama will force SDSU to play this game at their pace, and even though I think the physicality of the Aztecs can keep them in it for a bit, they will simply be worn out by the time this one is over. A second half runaway by the Tide’s offense seems inevitable en route to the Regional Final.

Prediction: Alabama 71-60 San Diego State

#6 Creighton vs. #15 Princeton

Princeton is the third straight 15 seed to make a Sweet 16 after Oral Roberts did it in 2021 and Saint Peter’s went to the Elite 8 last year. Their style of play is much more comparable to the Golden Eagles than the Peacocks; they have simply been out-shooting their opponents and making more clutch shots. Their first round win over #2 Arizona was largely due to the Wildcats’ inability to make jumpers down the stretch, but in the second round against Missouri, Princeton shot the lights out. Missouri, like Arizona, struggled mightily from the field as well, which allowed the Ivy League champs to control the game from start to finish. But something tells me that the cold streak for the Tigers’ opponents is going to stop on Friday night. Creighton has been perhaps the most impressive offensive team in the field through two rounds. I said no one would want to see this team if they got hot, and I have been vindicated. The Bluejays’ shooting and situational offense has been a sight to behold. Ryan Nembhard has been the star of the show, including a 30-point effort against #3 Baylor on a scintillating 8-for-13 shooting performance, and Ryan Kalkbrenner has been his usual dominant self down low. They haven’t been playing the toughest of defenses, but they won’t be facing a very tough defense against Princeton either. I simply don’t see Creighton going cold and the Tigers continuing to get bailed out. I think this will be the biggest blowout of the Sweet 16 as the Bluejays gets one step closer to a Final Four.

Prediction: Creighton 79-56 Princeton

#1 Alabama vs. #6 Creighton

This would be a firework show. I hope this is the Regional Final we get simply because of how entertaining it would be. Creighton is one of the few teams in the field that can match Alabama on both sides of the ball, and it would make for an instant classic in Louisville. The Bluejays guards are arguably better than those of Alabama, and they could simply out-shoot them down the stretch. But the thing that would put the Tide over the top would obviously be Brandon Miller. I don’t know if any team has what it takes to stop him, and while I think the bigs of Creighton like Aluma and Kalkbrenner can slow him down, it might not be enough. This is the type of spot where stars shine the brightest, and there is no one more fitting than Miller to show up and show out to will his team to the Final Four for the first time in history.

Prediction: Alabama 68-64 Creighton

Midwest Regionals

#1 Houston vs. #5 Miami

This matchup is even more scintillating than I envisioned, and it’s largely due to how Miami has played in the first two rounds of this tournament. They struggled a bit with #12 Drake, but they showed up and showed out against #4 Indiana in one of the most impressive performances of any team in the field. They were able to have an inside presence defensively and limit the damage of star Hoosiers big man Trayce Jackson-Davis while the guards did their thing on the other end of the floor. Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller have turned their level of play up to 11, and it’s making all the difference on both sides of the ball. They will need to keep that level of play up with their toughest test yet awaiting them on Friday night. With Marcus Sasser not at 100%, Houston struggled with #16 Northern Kentucky, and the questions started flying. But with Sasser looking much better against #9 Auburn, the Cougars looked as dominant as we knew they could. I’d say the key piece has been Jarace Walker, who has been blocking everything he sees while being a monster on the glass and unstoppable down low offensively. With Miami’s guards largely being able to match up with Houston’s I think Walker will once again be the X-factor in this game. He’ll be up against Miami’s Norchad Omier and should have the upper hand. If the Canes can’t keep Walker in check, then they simply won’t be able to win. They need to control the paint and continue to let Wong, Miller, and Pack do their thing on the perimeter if they want to live to see another day. I don’t doubt the possibility of that happening. Those guys have proven themselves, and Jim Larranaga is a tremendous coach with a ton of success in March under his belt. But this might be too difficult of a test for them. Houston has a ton of great momentum on their side, and Sasser will only be healthier for the second weekend. This is going to be an absolute dogfight, but I’m rolling with the Cougars simply due to their better matchups, especially down low, and their superior defense.

Prediction: Houston 63-58 Miami

#2 Texas vs. #3 Xavier

This matchup is even harder to analyze and pick than it was when I was filling out my bracket this time last week. Both Texas and Xavier have had an interesting path to the Sweet 16. That of the Musketeers has definitely been a bit more strange, as they had to overcome a double-digit deficit in the final ten minutes of their first round game against #14 Kennesaw State to avoid total humiliation. They were able to right the ship thanks to some timely misses from the Owls as well as some clutch buckets and defensive moments of their own. The second round was much easier as they completely dismantled #11 Pitt to reach the second weekend. Texas’ road here has essentially been the opposite with a very easy first game and a much tougher second game. After making light work of #15 Colgate, the Longhorns had their hands full with #10 Penn State and their pesky shooting. Still, some big time shots down the stretch from guys like Marcus Carr and Dylan Disu lifted Texas out of a bad spot and into the Sweet 16. So, what to make of this game? Xavier certainly has the shot-making ability to give Texas fits like Penn State did. But what if the shots aren’t falling? They’ll have to control the game inside the arc, and they’re definitely capable, as big man Jack Nunge has had a huge tournament thus far. But he hasn’t faced a player like Timmy Allen or Dylan Disu in his first two games. I just feel like Texas matches up too well with Xavier across the board; their guards are more physical and can disrupt the game and their big men are too athletic for the Musketeers to handle. It certainly won’t be easy, but I like the Longhorns to win what will be an extremely physical game.

Prediction: Texas 56-51 Xavier

#1 Houston vs. #2 Texas

If you looked up “war” in the dictionary, a picture of this matchup would show up. With the Final Four being in Houston, I don’t see a Regional Final more fitting than Houston vs. Texas. It just feels right. Two powerhouses duking it out for the right to go home and play for a national championship is something that we deserve as college basketball fans. This was the Regional Final I predicted, but I’m changing my pick. While I love both of these offenses, I think this is the type of game where defenses thrive. Shots are going to be contested from start to finish, and the game will be won inside the arc. While I previously picked Texas to win this game, I was wildly impressed with Houston’s second half against Auburn. Jarace Walker is proving himself as one of the best players in the country who can take over any game, and it’s clear how much better the Cougars play when Marcus Sasser is on the floor. Barring something unforeseen, he will be as healthy as he’s been in weeks for this weekend’s games, and I think that will make the difference for Houston. While I love the Longhorns from top to bottom, I just don’t think they’ll have an answer for someone who plays as well as Sasser. His defensive efforts against Texas’ guards and his shotmaking ability on the other end will provide the Cougs the lift that they need to go home and try to capture that elusive national championship.

Prediction: Houston 58-57 Texas

West Regionals

#4 UConn vs. #8 Arkansas

Don’t show up if you’re soft. This is going to be an absolute war. UConn’s path to the Sweet 16 has been pretty straightforward, and I pretty much predicted it to a T. They have simply beaten teams up down low with Adama Sanogo and trusted their guards to make shots. Their first two opponents, #13 Iona and #5 Saint Mary’s, were able to deal with that for about a half or so, but over the course of a full game, they just get worn down. But now they have to face a team that can match their physicality across the board in the Razorbacks. Eric Musselman is in pursuit of his third straight Elite 8 appearance, and this team can certainly get him there. They have found their winning formula, which unfortunately involves sidelining star guard Nick Smith, but the results speak for themselves. A first round dismantling of #9 Illinois and an inspiring comeback to knock off top-seeded Kansas have them in a golden position for a potential Final Four, which has eluded them for so long. These squads match up so well with one another that it’s almost impossible to find a differentiator on either side. Signs point towards it being Adama Sanogo, and he’ll have to put together his best performance yet if the Huskies are to advance. Arkansas’ guards are just as good if not better than UConn’s, and the defensive efforts of guys like Devo Davis, Ricky Council IV, and Jordan Walsh can put the Hogs over the top. But I just don’t know if their offensive performance can match that of their defense. I know UConn’s offense will show up night in and night out. I can’t say the same thing for Arkansas. If the Razorbacks make their free throws like they did against Kansas, then they can certainly win this game. But that can’t be their only win condition. I just don’t see them stopping Sanogo down low while simultaneously keeping Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton in check. The Huskies offense will be a bit too much, and they will reach their first Regional Final in eight years.

Prediction: UConn 64-57 Arkansas

#2 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga

In last week’s West region preview, I said this was the best game we could potentially get. Now it’s here. And I cannot wait. I outlined all the history and storylines last week, but now we have an actual game to play. And I can’t really make heads or tails of it. Despite two impressive wins to get here, UCLA is limping right now. Jaylen Clark is obviously out, Adem Bona is still dealing with shoulder problems, and most recently, David Singleton suffered a scary ankle injury late in the second round against #7 Northwestern that could sideline him for this contest. The Bruins will need all hands on deck to deal with Gonzaga’s explosive offense, especially with Drew Timme dominating down low. Timme absolutely took over the second half against #6 TCU in the second round, and his elite level of play is arguably the biggest reason that the Zags are in this spot. If Bona isn’t 100%, the responsibility falls on Kenneth Nwuba, who had a nice game in Bona’s absence against #15 UNC Asheville. But that was a 15 seed. This is Gonzaga. Their offense is picking up steam quickly, and UCLA figures to be trending downwards with their injury problems. But I haven’t backed the Bruins this long and this far to give up hope now. Every sign points towards them losing this game, but I’m going to continue to stick with them… for now. I think they have more clutch shot-making with guys like Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez, and that will make the difference down the stretch. I worry about their perimeter defense without Clark and potentially Singleton, and I worry about their ability to win a shootout against perhaps the best offensive team in the field. But when the chips are down, there isn’t a team in this field I trust more than UCLA.

Prediction: UCLA 69-66 Gonzaga

#2 UCLA vs. #4 UConn

Like Houston-Texas, this was the Regional Final I predicted last week. Just like that game, I’m switching up my pick. It hurts me to bail on UCLA, but I just don’t see how they can keep winning games being as shorthanded as they are. You need all hands on deck to make a championship push in March, and when several key pieces are missing, it’s just impossible. Even if Adem Bona plays in this game, he won’t be 100%, and that means Adama Sanogo will once again be able to lead UConn to victory. I actually like UCLA’s perimeter players more than those of the Huskies, but I don’t think they’ll be able to lead the Bruins to victory by themselves. Unless this turns into a complete shootout, which I don’t think it will, I don’t see a win condition for UCLA. Their defense has to give out eventually, and if it’s not against Gonzaga, then it will be against UConn, who will be headed back to the Final Four in Houston, where they won a championship in 2011.

Prediction: UConn 62-55 UCLA

East Regionals

#4 Tennessee vs. #9 Florida Atlantic

What a strange matchup. While I didn’t think top-seeded Purdue would be playing here, I certainly didn’t expect this to be the matchup. FAU certainly had the stranger path to the Sweet 16 with a bizarre victory at the death over #8 Memphis in the first round before pulling away from history-making #16 FDU late in the second round. They definitely deserve to be here, but it hasn’t been the most difficult of roads to get to MSG. Tennessee, on the other hand, looked remarkably impressive in the first weekend with a dominant win over #13 Louisiana and a defensive masterclass against #5 Duke, who everyone thought would be here in their place. Without their star PG and defensive anchor Zakai Zeigler, I thought the Vols had no chance to beat a team like Duke. But the rest of the team stepped up in a massive way on both sides of the ball as the perimeter defense was suffocating, the paint was completely taken away, and the shots fell at all the right times. It’ll be hard to replicate such an impressive performance, but I don’t think Tennessee will need to do that much against a team like FAU. I know the Owls have a great team and have had a remarkable season, but I don’t see them keeping the magic going against such a difficult defense to beat. If they make their shots, they have a real shot. But I think the Vols have been the far more impressive team, and I’m finding it impossible to pick against them.

Prediction: Tennessee 57-51 FAU

#3 Kansas State vs. #7 Michigan State

If you like guard play, you’re going to want to be seated in front of the TV for this game with a big bucket of popcorn in front of you. Both the Wildcats and Spartans have some of the most fun, electric guard play in the country, and that’s exactly what has propelled both squads to the second weekend. Surprisingly, Michigan State has been the more dominant team in this tournament with two mightily impressive wins over #10 USC and #2 Marquette when many thought they would be one and done. Tyson Walker has been the main catalyst of this run with his impeccable scoring and his ability to run the offense perfectly and control the game in the half court. Other contributors on offense like Joey Hauser and AJ Hoggard are also making key plays on both sides of the ball. Sparty’s defense is doing a great job of disrupting shots and forcing turnovers, and the offense is cashing in on those extra possessions. It’s classic Tom Izzo ball, and it’s once again working wonderfully in March. K State is also playing the role of being slightly overlooked. I personally had them losing to #6 Kentucky, and even though they came very close to doing so, they made some clutch shots down the stretch to pull away. The main reason they were in the game late was the play of star guard Markquis Nowell, who might be the most fun player to watch in this tournament. He may stand at 5’8, but he’s almost always the best player on the floor. His handles, his passing, his shotmaking, and his overall skillset has made him a force to be reckoned with offensively, and watching him hoop is like watching poetry in motion. No one has been able to slow him down yet, but this will be the toughest test yet for the Wildcats. Unlike Kentucky, MSU has the guard play to match Nowell on the perimeter. Moreover, we saw KSU struggle mightily with Oscar Tshiebwe in the second round, and while the Spartans don’t have a force like him down low, they certainly have the size to disrupt Kansas State, the worst rebounding team in the field, in the paint. And it’s just too difficult to pick against Tom Izzo in a spot like this. Jerome Tang is doing amazing things for the K State program, but this moment might be too big for them. They will battle to the bitter end, but I think Michigan State will be able to hold on for just a little bit longer to reach the Elite 8.

Prediction: Michigan State 61-60 Kansas State

#4 Tennessee vs. #7 Michigan State

Of all the Regional Finals, I think this one is the easiest to predict. Simply put, Tennessee’s luck will run out eventually. Regardless of who they play in this spot, they will be facing an offense that won’t vanish into thin air. This is where not having Zakai Zeigler will finally bite the Vols. Even if the shots aren’t falling, a team like Michigan State can beat you with their guard play if you don’t have players to match them on the perimeter. If it’s K State in this spot, I think the same thing goes. While defense is a key component to getting you far in March, I don’t think there are any two more important factors than guard play and coaching. MSU has the clear advantage in both of those areas against Tennessee. I don’t think this moment will be too big for the Spartans, and Tyson Walker will become a household name as he leads Michigan State to yet another Final Four: their ninth (!!) under Tom Izzo.

Prediction: Michigan State 60-56 Tennessee

So, I’m predicting a #1 Alabama vs. #7 Michigan State / #1 Houston vs. #4 UConn Final Four. That’s your sign to bet against that happening! Regardless of what happens this weekend, I know we’re in for some great games and a tremendous Final Four. I’ll be here to give my thoughts on that when the time comes.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament features some great teams and plenty of potential madness. Let’s break it down and preview how the Midwest will play out.

Cover photo taken from the Houston Chronicle.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the Midwest: perhaps the strangest, most unpredictable quadrant of the entire bracket.

Meet the 1 Seed: Houston Cougars

What Kelvin Sampson continues to do at Houston is simply remarkable. Houston has been one of the most formidable teams in the nation for several years in a row, making the second weekend in each of the last 3 NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four in 2021. Now, he boasts his best team yet: one that has been on top of college basketball all season long. They sat in the #1 spot in the AP Poll for the majority of the season en route to being ranked first in BPI, NET, and KenPom and coming one game away from being the top overall seed in the tournament. This team utilizes so much of what made Houston squads of the past so strong: freak athleticism and ridiculous defense. The Cougars have both in bunches. Star guard Marcus Sasser, a First Team All-American, leads the way, averaging 17/3/3/2 and being an absolute pest on defense. Jamal Shead is his backcourt companion, who leads the team in assists and runs the offense to perfection. Forward J’Wan Roberts holds things down in the paint, averaging 10/8/1/1/1. But the player who has really helped separate Houston from the rest of the country this season has been star freshman forward Jarace Walker, a future lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. At 6’8 240, Walker is an absolute beast down low, averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Simply put, this is Coach Sampson’s best and most talented team in his time at Houston, which is really saying something. The teams of the past may have had their roads end in heartbreak, but this is a squad that feels destined to change the narrative. They deserve to be the favorites to win a fairytale hometown title.

Meet the Sleeper: #13 Kent State Golden Flashes

Honorable Mentions: #7 Texas A&M, #12 Drake

That’s right. The sleeper is the 13th-seeded team out of the MAC. And by all means, it doesn’t make a lot of sense. But this is March. Nothing makes sense! Kent State enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field, having run the table in the MAC Tournament, including a win over heavily-favored Toledo, en route to a championship. Star guard Sincere Carry leads the way for this exciting offense that puts up nearly 80 points per game. They have all the makings of a Cinderella, relying heavily on their shooting and offensive play to simply outscore teams. But the real strength of this team is their defense, which ranks in the top 40 in efficiency according to KenPom. It’s a formula that nearly earned them road wins over Gonzaga, a 3 seed in the West, and Houston, the 1 seed in this region. In a quadrant of the bracket that looks ripe with upsets, the Golden Flashes are deservedly going to be one of the trendier picks. But don’t be afraid to pick them to win more than one game. They have proven that they have what it takes to do so.

Upset Waiting To Happen: #13 Kent State over #4 Indiana

Honorable Mentions: #12 Drake over #5 Miami, #10 Penn State over #7 Texas A&M

See above. Indiana certainly is the better team in this game, and the Hoosiers almost match up too well with the Golden Flashes. Kent State is pretty undersized while Indiana has one of the best big men in the sport in First Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis and are extremely well-balanced while Kent State is much better defensively than offensively. But like I said, this is March, a time when nothing makes sense. Honestly, Indiana hasn’t been very impressive down the stretch, and I think they’re over-seeded as a 4. But this would still be a shock for most people. The best upsets are the most unexpected ones, and this could very well be one of those upsets.

Best Potential Games: #2 Texas vs. #7 Texas A&M, #1 Houston vs. #2 Texas

Honorable Mentions: #2 Texas vs. #3 Xavier, #1 Houston vs. #5 Miami (FL)

On the surface, it doesn’t get much better than Texas vs. Texas A&M. Ever since the Aggies left for the SEC, we are never graced with this glorious rivalry. To get it in the second round of this tournament would be a delight. I think Texas is one of the best teams in the field, and I think TAMU is one of the most under-seeded teams in the field. This is a second weekend-caliber game just waiting to happen in the first weekend. Both teams are crazy athletic and extremely fun to watch. I would give the edge to the Longhorns, but I have no doubt that it would be air tight from wire-to-wire in an instant classic which we would be lucky to see so early in the tournament.

The appeal of a potential Houston vs. Texas Regional Final needs no explanation. In-state rivals battling for a chance to go back to the Lone Star State for a shot at the national championship? Sign me up. This game would be a peak display of athleticism and guard play. Marcus Sasser vs. Marcus Carr, Jarace Walker vs. Timmy Allen; the matchups are just too juicy. This is actually my prediction to be the Regional Final. As for who I think will win…

My Pick For Houston: #2 Texas

Honorable Mentions: #1 Houston, #3 Xavier

I love this Texas team. They are just so damn good. They have impressed me all season long. The Longhorns could have fallen apart after a world of controversy hit the program’s head coach Chris Beard, who was dismissed from the program amidst a domestic abuse scandal. Interim HC Rodney Terry has done an incredible job getting the program back on track, going 17-7 and leading the Horns to a Big 12 Tournament championship. They rank 5th in BPI, 6th in KenPom, and 7th in the NET, boasting one of the most-well balanced lineups in all of college basketball. Marcus Carr leads the way in the backcourt, leading the team in scoring (15.9 points/game), assists (4.1/game), and steals (1.8/game). Tyrese Hunter and Sir’Jabari Rice complete one of the best backcourts in the country. Star forward Timmy Allen locks down the paint as one of this team’s key pieces, but a leg injury might have him limited or even unavailable throughout the tournament. Still, I have full faith in Texas. This is a team that went 14-8 in Quad 1 games; they are as battle-tested as any team in the field, and they have been resoundingly successful in the most important games of the year. They won the best league in the nation (by a good margin, in my opinion) in emphatic fashion. They have all the makings of a Final Four team and championship contender. I can’t wait to see what they have in store.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Houston over #16 Northern Kentucky: Cougars might win this one by 50.

#9 Auburn over #8 Iowa: This could very well be the best game of the first round. Iowa has one of the best offenses in the country, but they’re playing a pseudo road game in Birmingham against Auburn, who have the athletes and defense to slow the Hawkeyes down. It’s going to be a war from start to finish, but I don’t trust Iowa’s defense to come through in the most difficult spots down the stretch.

#5 Miami over #12 Drake: It is so tempting to pick this upset. I would honestly pick Drake if we knew that Miami big man Norchad Omier is out. But the possibility of him playing is preventing me from rolling with the Bulldogs. Besides, the Hurricanes boast some of the best guard play in the country with Jordan Miller, Nijel Pack, and ACC PotY Isaiah Wong. Moreover, much of this team has the tournament experience from last year’s Elite 8 run. That should be enough to put them over the top, even without their commanding defensive presence down low.

#13 Kent State over #4 Indiana: You get the point by now. This game should be fascinating to watch, and I can’t wait to be either vindicated or proven completely wrong.

#11 Pitt over #6 Iowa State: This is a classic case of strength vs. strength. The Cyclones excel on defense, grinding you down slowly over the course of 48 minutes. The Panthers, on the other hand, excel on offense with a subpar defense. In March, I tend to favor the superior offensive team. Moreover, teams that win in the First Four carry some momentum with them into the Round of 64, and I think Pitt will have just enough gas to pull off the upset.

#3 Xavier over #14 Kennesaw State: Xavier has one of the best offenses in the country and can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. I like what they have going on in year one under Sean Miller, but I think the loss of Zach Freemantle will prevent them from going too far in this tournament. Thankfully for them, this first game won’t be too difficult.

#7 Texas A&M over #10 Penn State: Like Iowa-Auburn, this is one of the best games of the first round on paper between two power conference teams. Both A&M and Penn State played for conference championships last weekend, and both are more than capable of playing the role of bracket buster in this tournament. Their matchup should be fascinating. I was far more impressed with the Aggies throughout the course of the season as they went 15-3 with some standout wins in the SEC, which was much tougher than the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions will hang around, but their defense won’t be able to get enough stops late to pull the mini-upset.

#2 Texas over #15 Colgate: While I think Texas will make the Final Four, it won’t start with an easy win. Colgate will not be a pushover; this is their fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, and in each of their previous three first round games, they have been competitive. The Raiders, who are the best three point shooting team in the nation, won’t go down without a fight, but they simply won’t be able to overcome the athleticism and dominance of the Longhorns for a full 48 minutes.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 College Football Season Preview

After 9 long months of waiting, the best sport in the world is finally back. Here’s my preview of the season, from every Power 5 conference to the Heisman winner and the College Football Playoff.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

The best sport in the world is finally back. College football has returned and is already in full swing as we dive into Week 1, which promises to be a fantastic opening weekend. If the small sample size of games that have already taken place are any indication, then we are in for another tremendous season of this beautiful game.

As always, a fresh season means a fresh set of predictions and picks for what the next few months hold in store for us. From conference picks to playoff predictions to award winners, there’s so much in this crystal ball to look into. I didn’t have as inaccurate of an outlook as I may have expected last season, but even if these don’t come to fruition, it does not matter. That’s the fun of it all. So, let’s get into it, starting with previewing the results of each Power 5 conference.

Big Ten

Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes
Runner-Up: Iowa Hawkeyes

For all intents and purposes, 2022 will be a return to the norm in the Big Ten. Last season was filled with anomalies, the most notable of which was Michigan finally getting over the hump by beating their arch rivals in Ohio State, winning the conference and reaching the College Football Playoff. I hope that they enjoyed that brief success, because this year will belong to the Buckeyes once again.

Ohio State has a roster that’s as scary as it has ever been. It’s a squad that reminds me of the 2019 one so much, and many consider that to be one of the most talented Buckeyes teams ever. Returning the three-headed monster of CJ Stroud at QB, TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba lining up outside is enough to make any and all opposing defenses lose sleep. Star wideouts like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are being replaced by incredible talents like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. The offensive firepower speaks for itself in Columbus. The questions reside exactly where they did last season: with the defense that cost them a chance at a national championship. Getting absolutely ran over by Michigan lit a fire under the program that has led to a complete reworking of that side of the ball. HC Ryan Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to take over as defensive coordinator after leading the Pokes to a top 5 defense last season. He inherits an incredibly talented defense, many of which return after last season’s sour ending. The defensive line of Jack Sawyer, Zach Harrison, Tyleik Williams, and JT Tuimololau is bound to wreak havoc on offensive lines all year long. The secondary has some very promising pieces like Cam Brown and Denzel Burke, who emerged as the top corner on the team last year. Tanner McCallister is a grad transfer who followed his former DC from Stillwater who will make an instant impact in the secondary as well. If the Bucks can fix their defensive woes, there will be very little that can stop them from realizing their potential, exercising their demons from 2021, and hoisting the championship trophy once again.

The rest of the conference should be fascinating to monitor. I personally think Iowa will build off of a tremendous 2021 season and run it back as champions of the B1G West, but I wouldn’t sleep on Wisconsin, especially with Braelon Allen bulldozing defenses out of the backfield. Michigan will of course have plenty of eyes on them as well, but I just don’t think they can live up to last year’s achievements after losing so much incredible talent to the NFL this year. They have a very good roster despite that, but it’ll just be too hard to compete with Ohio State in the B1G East. Michigan State also saw themselves overachieve last season, winning a New Year’s 6 bowl game in Mel Tucker’s first real season in East Lansing, but like their counterparts in-state, they suffer from being in a one-horse race in their division. A team that I wouldn’t sleep on is Penn State, who should be just as good if not better than they were last year with a very promising young team, especially defensively. Look out for the Nittany Lions to potentially finish second in the East.

SEC

Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
Runner-Up: Georgia Bulldogs

The 2021 season was perhaps the best the SEC has had in years. The conference truly flexed its colors and showed the country that it was by far the best league in the sport. The results spoke for themselves. And the end result was a delight to watch, with Georgia using their generational defense to mercifully end their title drought and finally eclipse Alabama to be this season’s defending champions, despite losing to them in the SEC Championship Game. Could the Dawgs possibly run it back this year? Well, like the Big Ten, I see more of a return to normalcy.

Alabama is the preseason #1 team in the country according to both the AP and Coaches Poll. And by every metric, they should be. This was the #1 team in last year’s CFP and came extremely close to winning yet another national title. All they’ve done this offseason is return the Heisman-winning Bryce Young at QB and the best player in the sport in edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. Not to mention a plethora of athletic freaks at every position on both sides of the field, like Jase McClellan, Dallas Turner, Henry To’oTo’o, Jordan Battle, and so many more. But where Bama shined brightest this offseason was in the transfer portal, bringing in WR Jermaine Burton from the title-winning Georgia Bulldogs and a lightning-quick RB in Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech. Losing Jameson Williams removes a level of explosiveness from this offense, but they will still be able to carve up any team on any given Saturday. And their defense is even better, so good luck scoring on them. This is a sensational team across the board, and I’d be shocked to see them lose a game, or the #1 spot, at any point this season.

The defending champs are nothing to scoff at though. They return their star QB in Stetson Bennett, college football’s best tight end in Brock Bowers, and a very good amount of their star-studded defensive players from last season, the most notable of which being Jalen Carter, perhaps the best defensive tackle in the sport. There’s plenty of young talent to go around on both sides of the ball, and unless they return to the choking form of years past, it’s safe to say Georgia will be a playoff contender, if not one of the four teams competing for a title in late December.

The rest of the league is really anyone’s guess, as it tends to be so often. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Ole Miss are teams who had sensational years in 2021, but running that back is so hard in the SEC. I do have high hopes for the Hogs and Wildcats, but less so for the Rebels after losing their star QB to the NFL. It’s also hard to envision the traditional powers like LSU not returning to form, especially as the Tigers begin a new era with Brian Kelly at the helm. Teams like Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee seem primed to make up for the past few seasons. Perhaps the biggest question mark of the entire conference is Texas A&M, who has dominated recruiting and NIL alike with absolutely no success to show for it. This is the year it has to come to fruition for the Aggies. All of the eyes will be on them from start to finish.

ACC

Winner: Clemson Tigers
Runner-Up: Miami Hurricanes

Are you sensing the trend yet? After years of dominating college football, Clemson was perhaps the sport’s biggest disappointment in 2021. It’s not easy to replace a generational QB like Trevor Lawrence, but the Tigers’ offense was genuinely unwatchable last season. It’s hard to imagine it will be that bad again. Despite a complete assistant overhaul with OC Tony Elliott leaving fort Virginia and acclaimed DC Brent Venables going to Oklahoma, Clemson should return to form in 2022 thanks to what is, in my opinion, the best defense in college football. The defensive line is one full of guys who would start in the NFL right now in Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, and Tyler Davis. Trenton Simpson is an absolute stud in the middle of the defense. The secondary is stacked with names like Andrew Mukuba and Fred Davis. The offense isn’t the scariest sight, but RB Will Shipley and WR EJ Williams are tremendous young pieces who can make any play on the field. If QB DJ Uiagalelei can return to his 2020-level of play, then this team will be frightening. And if he doesn’t, there’s a very talented freshman QB in Cade Klubnik lying in wait. We know how that went last time for this team.

The ACC outside of Clemson is an absolute mess. This statement has been true for quite some time now. So many teams are in the beginning of new eras; Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and several others are beginning brand new regimes. Who knows who could rise to the top amidst all the chaos? I’m betting on Miami, simply because I think they have the talent to overcome most of the teams in the Coastal. I really like Virginia Tech and the direction they’re going in, Virginia has one of the more prolific passing offenses in college football, Pitt is coming off the high of a season that is impossible to replicate, so why not throw it back and have the Canes back in the spotlight? I have high hopes for the Mario Cristobal era, and kicking it off with a division win would do tremendous things for the program, which is seemingly already back on the rise. They worked the transfer portal and seem to have a very solid lineup on both sides of the ball. If QB Tyler Van Dyke can live up to his potential, we might be talking about Miami as a top 15-20 team by season’s end.

Big 12

Winner: Baylor Bears
Runner-Up: Oklahoma Sooners

The Big 12 is perhaps the biggest mess of a conference in the Power 5. Last year was one of the weirdest in over a decade, with Oklahoma struggling to find its identity, leading to the rise of teams like Oklahoma State and Baylor. This led to a ton of turnover this offseason, and now we have one of the most fascinating seasons ahead of us in this already exciting league.

Lost in the sea of overachieving teams in 2021 were the Baylor Bears, who improbably won the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl with one of the most stout defenses in all of college football. This season, they return almost all of that unit with almost entirely upperclassmen. The offense is a solid unit, but it will be that defense that wins Baylor games, just as it was last season. I’m not exaggerating when I say Baylor is a top 6-7 team in the country and will be a playoff contender. That’s how strong I feel about them.

Oklahoma was gouged harder than any program I have ever seen this offseason. HC Lincoln Riley left for USC and took the star QB Caleb Williams and so many recruits and other young players with him. The Sooners have brought in former Clemson DC Brent Venables to take over as head football coach, and while I think they will return to form, it’s hard to see them being as great as they were under Riley with all that tremendous QB talent they’ve had. The offense is still solid, led by transfer QB Dillon Gabriel, but don’t be shocked if it’s not even as good as it was in 2021. However, I still think Oklahoma is talented enough on both sides of the ball to bounce back from last year’s shortcomings and be a top 2 team in this league.

Two other teams with plenty of eyes on them will be Texas and Oklahoma State. The Longhorns are one of college football’s most promising teams, with Steve Sarkisian still at the helm, a shiny new QB in transfer Quinn Ewers, the best RB in the sport in Bijan Robinson, and a top 5 WR in Xavier Worthy. However, Texas has still not shown us that they can return to their glory days. If there’s any season to do it, it’s this one. The Pokes, on the other hand, were mere inches away from a Big 12 title and CFP berth last season, but a fateful goal line confrontation relegated them to a Fiesta Bowl win instead. They return a lot of talent, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to replicate that level of success again with the rest of the conference catching back up. However, I still like what’s going on in Stillwater, and I can easily see them returning to the title game.

PAC-12

Winner: Utah Utes
Runner-Up: Oregon Ducks

That’s right. The PAC-12 is the only Power 5 conference that is going to play out exactly like it did in 2021. Well, maybe not exactly.

Utah turned it on harder than almost any other team in the country towards the end of last year, absolutely dominating Oregon twice en route to a conference title and Rose Bowl berth. After a slow start to their season, they ended the year 9-1 in games started by QB Cameron Rising. Now, Rising and a promising young offense is back and primed to make a real playoff push. The defense lost some key pieces, but is still a very, very good unit. I don’t see them getting shredded like they did in the Rose Bowl in any of their games this season. All in all, the Utes should make light work of what is, in all likelihood, the worst Power 5 conference in college football.

Oregon has had a tumultuous offseason that saw its beloved head coach leave and several key pieces depart for the NFL. Still, they’re the beneficiary of playing in the absolutely dreadful PAC-12 North, and they have more than enough talent to breeze to another trip to Vegas. Bo Nix comes in from Auburn to take over at QB and inherits a very solid offense with guys like Dont’e Thornton and Troy Franklin catching the ball. And the defense still has studs like Noah Sewell and Justin Flower to lock things down. If the Ducks weren’t in the midst of so much turnover, they’d probably be my pick to win this conference. Alas, they’ll have to deal with a Rose Bowl trip instead (yes, the runner up to the Rose Bowl, more on that later).

Despite all of this, no team in the conference has more eyes on them or more anticipation for this season than the USC Trojans. The program is back in full force as they’ve brought in Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to right the ship. Riley has brought a wave of his OU recruits and players, most notably QB Caleb Williams. They’ve even added other stars from around the country via the transfer portal, such as former Oregon RB Travis Dye and last year’s Biletnikoff award winner Jordan Addison from Pitt. With so much talent and actually competent coaching, why wouldn’t USC splash in year 1 of the new era? Well, I think it’s just too soon. The Trojans will be a ton of fun this season, but not as successful as the media may think. Next year will be the one for this team to truly blossom in to the playoff contender that everyone expects them to be.

Heisman Winner: CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes

It is a biased pick. It is a basic pick. There’s nothing fun or exciting about picking the betting favorite to win the Heisman. That is, unless he plays for your team. I went against CJ on the record early last season and he shut me up so badly that I almost never want to bad mouth him ever again. I cannot wait to see what he has in store after last year’s fireworks (4,435 yards, 44 TDs). Leading the nation’s best offense with the nation’s best weapons sounds like a very good formula for success. Other players I wouldn’t sleep on are the obvious ones: Will Anderson, Bijan Robinson, Bryce Young, and even Jalen Carter. Maybe this is the year a defensive player finally wins it again!

Playoff Prediction

(1) Alabama vs. (4) Utah – Chick Fil A Peach Bowl
(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgia – Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Similar to how it was for so much of last season, college football in 2022 really is just Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and then everyone else. The Tide and Buckeyes should run the table with ease, and I think Georgia still gets in with a loss in the SEC title game by virtue of not losing in the regular season, just like they did last season. The fourth spot in the field could go to any number of teams: Baylor, Clemson, Notre Dame, and maybe even the likes of Oregon or Oklahoma State. But, I’m choosing the Utah Utes based on how they ended last season. It’s just such a solid team with so much returning talent that is bound to do huge things this year. However, the room for error is so slim, as it is with all those teams I mentioned that will be vying for the last playoff spot. With Baylor in the Big 12 which is bound to cannibalizing itself, Clemson playing Notre Dame in South Bend late in the year, Notre Dame opening against Ohio State, and so many other teams’ circumstances, I believe Utah has the best shot to get in at either 13-0 or 12-1. They need to be cautious not to slip up in games against teams like Florida, Arizona State, UCLA, USC, and Oregon, but if this team is what I think they are, they’ll be just fine. If not, then we could be looking at our first Alabama-Ohio State-Georgia-Clemson playoff ever. Either way, I think we’re in for a dandy in late December.

When it comes down to these matchups, it’s hard not to foresee the inevitable Alabama-Ohio State national championship game. And in that scenario, I’d pray every second of every day that the Bucks find a way to pull it out. Of course I’d pick them to win, but this might just be one of those years where nobody stops Alabama. However, I refuse to admit that. I’ve got the Buckeyes over the Tide in an instant classic national title game between the sport’s two biggest brands on its biggest stage. CJ Stroud has a legendary homecoming in SoCal en route to winning the program’s first title in 8 years. And we all go home happy!

The best sport in the world is back and I could not be more excited to be spending my Saturdays with my absolute favorite thing once again. Regardless of how this season plays out, I know I’m going to have the time of my life, as I always do. I hope you do as well.

All stats taken from ESPN.