Tag: Final Four

2023 National Championship Preview and Prediction

After 66 games of a brilliant NCAA Tournament, we have reached college basketball’s biggest night. Let’s preview UConn vs. SDSU, and predict who will be cutting down the nets as the national champions.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Welcome to Monday Night. After 17 days, 66 games, countless incredible moments, and perhaps the most bizarre NCAA Tournament of all time, we have reached the National Championship. Tonight, the #4 UConn Huskies take on the #5 San Diego State Aztecs for the title in Houston, Texas.

I gave a detailed rundown of both teams in Saturday’s Final Four preview, so I’ll spare you all of the nitty gritty stuff here. Still, let’s take a look at each of tonight’s contestants before picking the game itself:

#4 UConn Huskies

UConn is en route to rarified air, having won each of its first five NCAA Tournament games by double digit points with a total margin of victory of +103. That is one of the most staggering figures I’ve ever been tasked with comprehending. They are the sixth team to accomplish this feat, with four of the previous five capping off their journey with a national title. Considering how the Huskies continue to play on both sides of the ball, it almost feels impossible picking them to slow down. Their Final Four performance against Miami went almost exactly how I anticipated, but I figured most of their dominance would come in the second half. Instead, they led from beginning to end with equal levels of dominance in each 20-minute period. Adama Sanogo was his usual self with 21 points and 10 boards on 9/11 shooting, including two shocking first half threes. Alex Karaban poured in a solid 8 points and 9 rebounds, and Donovan Clingan came off the bench for an effective 4 and 6. Even when Sanogo isn’t on the floor, the Huskies are able to dominate the inside with their physicality. The backcourt did its usual thing with Jordan Hawkins leading the way with 13 points. Tristen Newton led the game in assists with 8 to go along with 7 points, and Andre Jackson Jr. put Miami’s guards in a straitjacket on the perimeter. But perhaps the most underrated piece to this backcourt is Nahiem Alleyne, who is averaging 7.4 points per game off the bench. UConn has been able to use its depth to its advantage, and all they do is rip you apart and wear you down over the course of 40 minutes. If there’s any team built to counter that playstyle, perhaps it’s San Diego State.

#5 San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are lucky to be here after winning one of the most thrilling Final Four games I’ve ever seen at the buzzer on a beautiful baseline jumper by Lamont Butler. The game-winning shot has gotten all the attention, and seemingly everyone has forgotten that SDSU was down 14 to FAU early in the second half of that game. But they got their act together on both ends of the ball to mount an impressive comeback and reach Monday night. Butler’s shot was the highlight, but Matt Bradley had the best performance on Saturday evening, leading the team in scoring (21 points), rebounding (5 boards), field goals (5/12 shooting) made, threes made (4/8 shooting), and free throws made (7/9 shooting). He was huge to bookend the game with a blistering start and a huge presence down the stretch as the Aztecs got back in it. But that’s not to discredit the other performances on the team. Jaedon LeDee had a huge 12 points off the bench, Aguek Arop poured in 9 points, and Nathan Mensah had a huge 7 and 6. The thing that plagued SDSU was the shot-making of FAU. The Owls were shooting the lights out in the first 30 or so minutes of the game, and that got the Aztecs in the double digit hole. You can never control how well the other team is going to shoot, but that was the first time in this tournament that this great defense had gotten blitzed like that. If San Diego State plays up to its defensive par and continues to get huge offensive contributions from their star guards, they have a great shot at pulling off the upset and cutting down the nets on Monday night.

Key Matchups

If you wanna beat this UConn defense, you better pray that you hit your shots. Any time a team has made a game interesting against the Huskies in this tournament, it has been because they’ve hit enough shots to go on a run and make things uncomfortable. The problem is that once Dan Hurley calls a timeout and makes an adjustment, they’re right back to dominating you on both ends of the floor. So the question becomes this: does SDSU have the shooting to make UConn uncomfortable for a full 40 minutes? And can they keep the game close enough to pull off the upset in the end? I honestly don’t know. The Final Four game against FAU was the only game that was won more by the Aztecs offense than their defense. This is by far the toughest defense they’ve faced, as UConn has dismantled two of KenPom’s top six offensive teams (Gonzaga ranked first, Miami ranked sixth) while SDSU sits all the way down at 68th, so I don’t know how likely it is that they can replicate that performance.

SDSU’s defense won’t be easy to beat either. The best defense that UConn has faced in this tournament is Arkansas, who ranks 17th in efficiency on KenPom. The Aztecs rank fourth. If they can play similar to their performances against Creighton and Alabama, San Diego State can certainly hang around in this game. But I feel like so much more pressure is on their offense to slow down the juggernaut that is the UConn offense, which is so deep and physically imposing. The Huskies offense ranks third in KenPom, and they can beat you in every which way. I don’t know if the Aztecs elite defense has what it takes to stop UConn in the paint and on the perimeter all at once for a full game. No one else has come remotely close, and while SDSU probably has the best shot on paper, it still feels too unlikely.

My Pick

Time is a flat circle. The last time that UConn made a Final Four in Houston was in 2011, where they won it all to cap off a historic run for superstar Kemba Walker. Three years later, the Final Four was in Texas once again, this time in Arlington. Once more, a Huskies guard led the team to an improbable title run; this time it was Shabazz Napier. Now, UConn is back in Houston, one win away from a third national championship in 13 years. History and momentum are on their side, and I don’t see them being stopped.

UConn 74-58 San Diego State

Monday, 9:20 PM EST, CBS

The word I keep using is dominant, but I don’t know if that even scratches the surface of how the Huskies have played in this NCAA Tournament. They have played perhaps the best basketball I have ever seen on this stage. To win in the manner that they have against the caliber of teams that they’ve played is simply astounding. It rivals that of 2018 Villanova, who I currently have as the most impressive national champions I’ve ever watched. With this win, I think UConn can take that spot from their Big East rival. I just find it too unlikely that San Diego State will be able to keep up with them on either side of the ball. I find it much more probable that their defense slows down the Huskies offense, but how long can they keep that up for? As I said on Saturday, the second half has been where UConn has done the bulk of their damage in this tournament. Even if SDSU keeps this close in the first half with their defense, it feels inevitable that the Huskies go on a huge second half barrage to run away with it. In the unlikely event that the Aztecs take this thing down to the wire, they’d be the team I trust more, considering their late-game performances in each of their last three games. But I simply don’t see the game getting to that point. I think UConn is going to impose its will one last time in every aspect of the game en route to another double-digit victory to etch themselves as one of the greatest teams in college basketball history.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 Final Four Preview and Predictions

The 2023 NCAA Tournament has produced perhaps the wackiest, most fascinating Final Four of all time. Let’s break it down and predict how things will go down this weekend in Houston.

Cover photo taken from WFAA.

We started with 68 teams in the world’s most famous bracket, each with their own hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets in Houston. 64 games later, only four teams remain with those dreams still alive. Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and UConn have reached H-Town to compose arguably the wackiest Final Four in the long, decorated history of the NCAA Tournament. It’s only right that this wildly entertaining, upset-filled tournament is capped off with such an intriguing Final Four: the first in history with no top-3 seeds. Let’s see how these teams have reached the end of the road.

How Florida Atlantic Got Here

In nine of the previous 10 NCAA Tournaments, a team seeded seventh or lower made it all the way to the Final Four. Ninth-seeded FAU has extended that to 10 of the last 11. Despite their seeding, this isn’t a traditional Cinderella. Much was made of the Owls winning 31 games in the C-USA this season, entering the tournament as the winningest team in the field. Dusty May’s squad was ready for the challenge of being in perhaps the toughest region in this tournament. After squeaking past Memphis in round one and crushing the dreams of history-making FDU in the second round, FAU walked into Madison Square Garden and knocked off a tremendous defensive team in Tennessee and a title favorite in Kansas State to get to Houston. They’ve been down late in every game, but they always find a way to make it work down the stretch in the second half and out-execute the other team to continue racking up wins. Their balance shines brightest when it matters the most as they force timely turnovers and knock down the most important shots. Guard Johnell Davis has been the star of the show, as he has been all year long for the Owls. He leads the team in scoring in this tournament with 17.3 points per game on an efficient 45% shooting. Alijah Martin has also been a key member of the backcourt, pouring in 17 key points in the Regional Final. But perhaps the most impactful player on the floor has been Vladislav Goldin, the 7-foot sophomore who has held the paint down with tremendous results. His offense has turned up in this tournament while his defense has been impeccable. FAU’s opponents haven’t been able to deal with him yet, and if he continues to dominate the paint while the guards continue to cook, then FAU could continue this unlikely run all the way to a national championship. If that were to happen, they’d be the lowest-seeded champion in the history of the tournament, which would certainly be fitting for this year.

How San Diego State Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when SDSU drew the College of Charleston and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. The Aztecs have silenced all the doubters who had them losing at every step of the way to reach a most improbable Final Four. They easily dispatched of potential Cinderellas in Charleston and Furman before knocking off the top overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 and escaping with the narrowest of victories against red-hot Creighton in the Regional Final (no, I will not comment on the refereeing in that game). Brian Dutcher’s team has been utilizing the formula that made it so dominant in the Mountain West in 2023: defense, defense, and more defense. They’re all the way up to fourth in KenPom for defensive efficiency, and anyone who has watched a second of SDSU basketball in this tournament will tell you how suffocating they are. They defend the perimeter so well, which is key for a team that’s not too big. That propelled them to beat two of the best offenses in the field; they turned Alabama into a brick factory and clutched up late against the Bluejays in the Elite 8. That’s not to say their offense has been invisible. The guard trio of Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, and Lamont Butler has been fantastic, with Trammell being the best of the three offensively. But if the Aztecs are to become the first ever 5 seed to win it all, it will be on the back of their defense: the very thing which got them to Houston.

How Miami Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when Miami drew Drake and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. Talk about déjà vu. I personally didn’t buy into that nonsense. I thought Miami was more than talented enough to reach the second weekend. The problem I had was foreseeing them beating Houston; that seemed impossible. But after crushing Drake and Indiana, the Canes played their best game of the tournament against perhaps the best team in the field, absolutely destroying Houston in the Sweet 16. Still, I thought they’d lose to Texas in the Regional Final. I especially thought they’d lose when they fell behind by 13 in the second half of that game. But a monster comeback led by their incredible guard play sent Miami to their first ever Final Four, and the job certainly isn’t finished. This team feels like they can accomplish so much, and it’s all a part of their culture. For starters, Jim Larrañaga continues to draw blood from a stone in March. This is his second trip to the Final Four after improbably getting here with George Mason back in 2006. Last year, they made the Elite 8 as a 10 seed. Now, they’re 80 minutes away from being the first 5 seed to win a national championship. Their aforementioned guard play was their bread and butter last year, and it has carried them to this point yet again. This is clearly the best backcourt left in the field, featuring stars like ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, sharpshooting Jordan Miller, and sparkplug Nijel Pack. Each of them are averaging over 16 points per game in this tournament; Pack leads the way with 18.5. They don’t have the world’s greatest defense, but they just might have the best offense at this Final Four, and they just might have the best winning formula. Coaching and guard play wins you national championships, and I’d wager that nobody in Houston is better in either regard than the Hurricanes. The only problem they have is the juggernaut that stands in front of them.

How UConn Got Here

The Huskies are the only team that made it to Houston that I actually thought could do it. But the manner in which they’ve done it is far beyond what I could have imagined. UConn has been a buzzsaw in this tournament, destroying opponent after opponent to reach their first Final Four in nine years. Their lowest margin of victory in this tournament is 15 (!) with a total point differential of 90 (!!!). Many people thought they could’ve lost in the first round to Iona, so they ran them off the floor. Saint Mary’s posed a difficult defensive test, and they used a late run to win by double digits. Facing an Arkansas team that just knocked off top-seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16? Yawn… here’s a 23-point win. And a Regional Final against an offensive juggernaut in Gonzaga? The most dominant win of the entire tournament: a 28-point thrashing. This is a team playing some of the highest-level basketball imaginable on this stage, and they deserve to be the runaway favorites to win it all (at minus odds!). They’ve skyrocketed to the top spot on KenPom, and it feels impossible to see them losing. Dan Hurley’s team is as physically imposing and dominating as any I’ve seen in years. Just like I said before, Adama Sanogo has been by far the best player on the floor, averaging 20 points per game in the tournament and being an anchor in the paint on both sides of the ball. Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban have also been key pieces of the frontcourt. Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton have been excellent from the outside, as they have been all year long. The Huskies continue to execute their formula to perfection on both ends of the floor, and while they do so, no one can beat them. They have no excuse to not be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Houston.

My Picks

San Diego State over Florida Atlantic

Saturday, 6:09 PM EST, CBS

I’ve deliberated this for a week, but it clicked for me this morning. The Aztecs have played some sharpshooting teams in this tournament, and they turn all of their hot streaks into cold ones. They are defending the perimeter so well that they’re practically impossible to beat from the outside. They’re susceptible on the interior, which seems like it’d play right into FAU’s hands with Vlad Goldin. But I don’t think Goldin can beat SDSU all on his own. The Owls will need Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin to make a ton of shots, especially down the stretch, but that’s when the Aztecs play their tightest on the perimeter. It’s very difficult to foresee a team that shut down offenses like Alabama and Creighton lose to FAU. But if the Owls are able to consistently make shots for a full 40 minutes, then they could win this game by a comfortable margin. Their win condition is turning this game into a most unlikely shootout. I trust their shotmaking more than that of SDSU. But I think the Aztecs have a much better shot at slowing this game down and controlling the pace from start to finish, allowing their offense to settle into sets and find good looks while their defense does the rest en route to an improbable national championship appearance.

UConn over Miami

Saturday, 8:49 PM EST, CBS

This is going to be a thriller. These are by far the two best teams in the field, and while it’s a shame that this can’t be the national championship game, we’re certainly blessed to see it in the Final Four. The highlight of this game will definitely be the guard play, as it is with every Miami game. Seeing Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller square off against Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton will be a feast for the eyes, and we’re sure to see a lot of points poured in from the outside. I have no doubt that the Canes offense will do its usual thing and make things difficult for the suffocating UConn defense. They will certainly be able to hang around. The question is: how long will they be able to hang around for? We’ve seen the Huskies pull away for dominant second halves time after time. Is that bound to happen once again? I say yes. No one has made better adjustments in the final 20 minutes than Dan Hurley and UConn, and I think they’re just going to wear down the Canes in the waning moments of the game, especially down low. Adama Sanogo is a man on a mission, and I think he’s once again going to dominate the paint against a Miami defense that isn’t too imposing on the block. The Huskies are going to dominate on both ends of the floor for another second half to reach their first national championship since 2014, where they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 Final Four Preview and Predictions

The 2022 NCAA Tournament has produced perhaps the most decorated, blue bloodiest Final Four of all time. Let’s break it down and predict how things will go down this weekend in New Orleans.

Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.

We started with 68 teams in the world’s most famous bracket, each with their own hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets in New Orleans. 64 games later, only four teams remain with those dreams still alive. Duke, North Carolina, Villanova, and Kansas have reached the Bayou to compose arguably the single most anticipated Final Four in the long, decorated history of the NCAA Tournament.

It’s rare to see a Final Four with each team having such a rich, deep history. We are in rarified air with three bonafide blue bloods in Duke, UNC, and Kansas, and Villanova has been one of the premier programs of this century, winning 2 of the previous 4 tournaments. It was a wild ride for each of these squads to get to the end of the road. Let’s see how these teams have reached the Final Four.

How Duke Got Here

This being Mike Krzyzewski’s final NCAA Tournament has kept all the eyes on the Blue Devils from the moment they arrived at the First Round. After making light work of CSU Fullerton, they once again ran into the Michigan State Spartans. Sparty gave them a run, but that’s when Duke established a theme that would continue throughout the rest of this run: impeccable late-game execution. Their best players simply went to work in the clutch to help the Devils emerge victorious. This was on display in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech, where Duke shot 71% in the second half and didn’t miss a shot in the final 7 minutes to escape with a victory in one of the more hard fought, back-and-forth games of this tournament. The Regional Final against Arkansas was simply domination, as the stars shined bright once again to help get Duke to their first Final Four since 2015, where they won it all, and Coach K’s 13th overall (most all time). Those stars include forward Paolo Banchero, guards A.J. Griffin and Jeremy Roach, and center Mark Williams, all of which have had incredible individual moments and are proving themselves as potential first round picks in the NBA. When this team is playing their best ball, you can only pray you can stop them. It truly feels like Coach K is destined to go out on top, and only he is only two wins away from doing just that.

How North Carolina Got Here

The Tar Heels may be an 8 seed, but they sure don’t feel like one. Part of that could be that they are UNC, one of the most decorated and historic programs in the sport. But, it could also be that they are playing like anything but an 8 seed in this tournament. After a subpar regular season and a blowout loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament, not many people gave the Heels a shot to do much in March. However, the formula was clear. The star-studded lineup had to play up to their potential, something that hadn’t been done much in the regular season. But, if they were able to play their best ball, they’d be damn near impossible to stop. That is just what happened in this tournament. After absolutely thrashing Marquette in the First Round, UNC knocked off the 1 seed in the East, the defending champion Baylor Bears, in an OT thriller to reach the Regionals. In the Sweet 16, they outlasted UCLA in a scintillating game that saw star guard Caleb Love take over in the second half. The last opponent standing between them and New Orleans was the Cinderella of all Cinderellas, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks, who they easily disposed of to reach their first Final Four since 2017, where the Heels cut down the nets. Love was a massive part of this run, but he’s not the only guy in Carolina blue making an impact. Fellow guard R.J. Davis has been an incredible complement in the backcourt, forward Brady Manek has been one of the premier scorers in this tournament, and forward Armando Bacot has been a machine, averaging 16.5 points and 15.8 rebounds per game in the tournament. The potential of this roster is finally being realized, and they are at their hottest at the perfect time. That has gotten them to New Orleans, and could potentially put them at the top of a ladder on Monday night.

How Villanova Got Here

Villanova has been the most successful college basketball program of the past 6 years. Without question. The Wildcats are 20-3 in the past six NCAA Tournaments, and this is their third trip to the Final Four in the past five tournaments (and their fourth in the last 13). They have won two of the last four national championships (2016 and 2018), and are more than capable of notching another. After a couple of “down” years, they are back to their standard, and it has been incredible to watch. Nova made light work of each of their first three opponents: Delaware, Ohio State, and Michigan. The Regional Final against Houston was the definition of a war, with both teams playing incredible defense and struggling mightily with shooting. In the end, Villanova made more shots, and that punched their ticket to New Orleans. Unfortunately, it came at a cost. Star forward Justin Moore tore his achilles in that game, and will obviously be out in the Final Four. It’s a massive loss, but that doesn’t mean this team is completely doomed. They are still one of the best teams in the country, led by guard Collin Gillespie, who has been one of the best players in the country all year long, and has continued that level of play in this tournament. Forward Jermaine Samuels has also been huge in this run, and he’ll need to step it up big time if Villanova is to advance to the title game. I think this team has what it takes, but they have a very steep mountain to climb with their opponent, who just so happens to be quite a familiar one.

How Kansas Got Here

The lone 1 seed in New Orleans is no stranger to Final Fours. The Jayhawks are here for the 16th time in their 50th tournament appearance. Going this far in 32% of tournaments you play in is absolutely staggering. This is Kansas’ first trip to the Final Four since 2018, where they lost to the same team they play tonight. But, this is a seemingly better team than that one, and this squad has a great chance to bring a title home to Lawrence for the first time in 14 years. It started with your run-of-the-mill destruction of a 16 seed against Texas Southern in the First Round. The Jayhawks were challenged a bit by Creighton in the Second Round, but toughed it out in the end. They then held off Providence in the Sweet 16, and used a volcanic eruption of a second half to get past Miami in the Regional Final to get to NOLA. Kansas has played like a true 1 seed, and have erased any and all doubt that may have lingered. Thanks to a star-studded lineup with guys like guards Ochai Agbaji, Remy Martin, Christian Braun and a frontcourt with David McCormack and Jalen Wilson, the Jayhawks look like one of the most unstoppable teams in basketball. They are primed to win another title, and I think they have what it takes to do just that.

Saturday night features two matchups that feel larger than life. It’s going to be quite the spectacle. It’s going to be amazing basketball. Let’s pick the 2022 Final Four.

Kansas over Villanova

Saturday, 6:09 PM EST, TBS

The last time both Kansas and Villanova made the Final Four was 2018, where they played each other. The Wildcats dominated that game, winning 95-79, and would go on to win the title two nights later. Now, they’re both here again. But things feel a bit different this time. As I said before, this is a better Kansas team than 2018, and it feels like the best one in a very long time. They have the talent and the experience from top to bottom, and they have executed their winning formula to perfection throughout this tournament. While Villanova is still as strong as ever, the injury to Justin Moore makes it nearly impossible to pick them in this game. If he was playing, then I very well could have picked the Wildcats in this game. He is one of the key cogs in their machine, and without him, I don’t know if they can beat a team as great as the Jayhawks are. Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels will have to step up in a big way, and while I think they are both capable of putting up huge numbers, it will just be too much to overcome. This will be a close game for a while, but the depth and pure excellence of Kansas on both sides of the floor will put them over the top. Look for Ochai Agbaji to have a huge game en route to the Jayhawks’ first title game appearance since 2008.

Duke over North Carolina

Saturday, 8:49 PM EST, TBS

Duke and North Carolina make up arguably the greatest rivalry on Earth. The two schools have met 256 times over the last 102 years, creating history by giving us countless memories and fielding some of the greatest players of all time. On Saturday night in New Orleans, they will meet for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament. At the Final Four. In Mike Krzyzewski’s final season. Not to mention that this is a rubber match after Duke dominated the first matchup in Chapel Hill on February 5th, then Carolina spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor stadium on March 5th. I know you guys have heard the storylines a billion times, but they’re so seismic that they must be repeated. To have a matchup like this in a spot like this just seems cosmic. It is divine intervention. It’s honestly overshadowing the fact that this is a phenomenal basketball game on paper. Both of the first two games were sizable wins for each team, so it only makes sense that this rubber match is a close game. Both of these teams have been playing their best basketball in this tournament, but one of them has to go home. And matchups like Mark Williams vs. Armando Bacot or Jeremy Roach vs. Caleb Love make this must-see TV, even if you disregard the two teams playing. I’d be better off leaving this pick to a coin flip, but I’m picking Duke for two reasons. The first of which has some merit, whereas the second really doesn’t. My first reason for picking the Devils is the fact that I think they are the more talented team (just barely), and that can put them over the top when the going gets tough, as it has all tournament long. I do love Carolina’s roster, and they are arguably even hotter than Duke is right now, but I think they can get a bit erratic in the clutch (see: the Baylor game), and it’s just a bit hard to put my faith in them for that reason. The second reason is just that it feels written in the stars that Coach K is going to end his career with winning his sixth national championship. Sometimes, you’ve got to throw your hands in the air and surrender to destiny, and I’ve done that with this Duke team. I’d be elated if I am proven wrong. Regardless, this is arguably the biggest game in the history of the Final Four, and I cannot wait to watch history unfold on Saturday night in New Orleans.

So, I think it’ll be Duke vs. Kansas for the National Championship on Monday night. In terms of picking that game, I’d probably roll with destiny and Duke, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. I can’t wait to watch this historic Final Four, and I hope you all enjoy it as much as I know I will.

All stats taken from ESPN.