Tag: divisional round

Divisional Round Picks

With eight teams remaining and four titanic matchups ahead, the Divisional Round is sure to be as cinematic as always. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Cover photo taken from NY Post.

Last Week: 3-3

Season Total: 170-98

Texans 23-20 Ravens

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Screw it.

In complete honesty, I think the Ravens are going to win this game. But life is too short to not have some fun.

I’m not picking the Texans for some random or superstitious reasons though. I worry about their run defense against this vaunted Baltimore offense, but I also had that concern last week against Cleveland. All they did was make light work of the Browns all game long with an incredibly inspired defensive effort. Why can’t that happen here as well? And it goes without saying that CJ Stroud is going to do CJ Stroud things, even against a defense as good as this one. If this team made the Browns — who I thought were a Super Bowl contender — look silly for sixty minutes, they’re definitely capable of beating the 1 seed Ravens.

But it won’t be easy. Or at least, it shouldn’t be. This is a massive game for Lamar Jackson and his team. If you lose the AFC Championship game to Kansas City or Buffalo — who are two excellent teams — so be it. At least you got there. They have to get there. And I think that sort of fire will fuel them to a big performance in this game on both sides of the ball. Again, at least it should.

But with all the uncertainty surrounding this team and this quarterback in the postseason, I have to see it to believe it.

49ers 27-17 Packers

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX

Death. Taxes. The 49ers beating the Packers in the playoffs.

It’s not that simple, but it is pretty simple. The Packers are playing excellent football right now, and their upset win in Dallas last week was glorious. But that’s going to be 100x harder to repeat against the best team in the NFL, especially when Kyle Shanahan absolutely owns Matt LaFleur. Is it entirely possible that Jordan Love goes crazy once again and the defense forces Brock Purdy into enough mistakes to lose the game? Of course it is. Green Bay is talented enough to make that happen. But, like I said with the Ravens, I have to see it to believe it.

I usually worry about rust with teams coming off two weeks of rest like San Francisco is, but this team feels too talented and too well-coached for something like that to happen. I think they’re going to flex their muscles to notch their first of three consecutive wins to capture that illustrious sixth championship. But we’ll cross those bridges when we get there.

Lions 24-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC

This game is essentially the NFC’s second-place matchup, since I don’t think either team has what it takes to go into San Francisco and win next week. But I think both of these squads has what it takes to at least get to that point.

Detroit’s win last week was one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. I’m so happy for that team, fanbase and city that deserves it so much. They proved that they’re built for this stage, and they have what it takes to do amazing things, especially at home. I expect a similar performance out of them in this one, but it’ll be another tough test. However, I don’t know if the Bucs are better on either side of the ball than the Rams were, so Detroit might have an easier time in that regard. They’ll need to have a much better second half if they want to not get too uncomfortable.

Tampa’s win last week was also euphoric for the likes of me for obvious reasons. But I have concerns of how realistic it is for them to replicate it. Don’t get me wrong, the Bucs dropped passes left and right and probably should have won by more than 23, but the Lions defense is much, much better than Philadelphia’s, and they probably won’t be slipping and sliding and missing tackles the way those Eagles embarrassingly did. I think Baker will do his thing for a bit, but just like last week, that Lions defense figures to make enough plays to keep them at arm’s length while their offense does the rest.

At the end of the day, I feel like that Week 6 matchup is a pretty good indicator that the Lions simply match up with the Bucs too well and do everything that Tampa does better. So, although this one should be closer than that game was, I still like Detroit to reach an improbable NFC Championship Game for the first time in three decades.

Chiefs 20-17 Bills

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Well, here it is. The seemingly unavoidable matchup that we’ve seen so many times already and should continue to see for the foreseeable future.

I must admit, I’m not as excited as everyone else is for this matchup. And I think there’s a clear reason why: I don’t buy into the Bills storylines.

“Patrick Mahomes finally has to come to Buffalo!” Um, the Buffalo that he’s never lost in? “Josh Allen is playing better than any other QB right now!” The same Josh Allen that has never beaten Mahomes in the postseason, even when he had one of the greatest statistical playoff runs of all time? “Mahomes finally has to go on the road!” What, the best quarterback of all time can’t play on the road? Give me a break.

Beyond all of that, I just feel better about the Chiefs than I do about the Bills for a couple of reasons. For starters, Kansas City’s defense is remarkable. Anyone saying that the weather last week was the sole reason for Miami looking incompetent is lying to themselves. That Chiefs defense is insane, and no matter how good Buffalo looks offensively, they will make themselves readily apparent in this ballgame.

My second reason is that the injuries are somehow getting worse for the Bills. Terrel Bernard going down is a massive loss for this defense which will need all hands on deck with Mahomes coming to town, especially in that front seven which could be the real difference maker if the Bills want to win this game. They also desperately need Rasul Douglas back. If neither of them can go, it’d make things a lot easier for the visiting quarterback.

Speaking of that quarterback, my third reason is that one Patrick Mahomes is suiting up for the Chiefs. I don’t care that this is his first road playoff game. I don’t care that the Bills are the hottest team in the NFL. I don’t care that Josh Allen is doing Josh Allen things. This is a quarterback that has never missed the AFC Championship Game in his career. I have no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. Sure, this offense isn’t blowing the doors off anyone like in the past. But they’ll grind you down on both sides of the ball and win with some old-school ball. That 2018 Patriots comparison I made a few weeks ago looks more and more true by the game. That formula, which has gotten them this far, will once again prove to be a winning one. And, if I go 2-for-2 in the AFC, the Chiefs will be hosting their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game.

I know I’m sounding like a broken record here, but between Mahomes’ career playoff success — especially — against the Bills, I have to see it to believe it.

Divisional Round Picks

Only eight teams remain as we head into an absolutely stacked weekend. Here are my picks to make next week’s Championship games.

Cover photo taken from Sportcasting.

Last Week: 4-2

Season Total: 177-97-2

Chiefs 27-20 Jaguars

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NBC

In analyzing and/or picking this game, there are really only two statistics to consider. The first of which is that Andy Reid is the greatest head coach off a bye in the history of the sport. He boasts a record of 27-4 following an off week, including a perfect 3-0 record in the AFC playoffs with the Chiefs (1-1 in Super Bowls). The second of which is that both the Chiefs and every other 1 seed ever largely struggle as large favorites in the Divisional Round. 1 seeds have gone 13-25-1 ATS in this round in the last 20 years, and 8-22-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less. Some books have this spread to 8.5 or 9. So, you can bank on the Chiefs winning this game, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you or Vegas think. Moreover, we pretty much know what we’re going to get out of these teams. The Jaguars are an amazing story and are good enough to give any team in the AFC fits. Their offense is certainly capable of putting up both yards and points on an underwhelming, continuously underperforming Chiefs defense, especially through the air with Trevor Lawrence slinging it all over the yard. But they don’t have what it takes to go to Arrowhead and beat Kansas City off a bye, especially considering how dominant the Chiefs have been and how incredible Patrick Mahomes has been playing this season. The MVP-to-be enters this game after putting up the most offensive yards in a season in the history of the league. Everyone on offense is getting involved, and it all starts with the greatness of #15. After seeing how Jacksonville’s pass defense has fared in recent games, I don’t trust them to limit Mahomes in any capacity. Jacksonville might be able to keep up for a while, but this is simply too tall of a task for a young team that has overachieved this season.

Eagles 24-20 Giants

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, FOX

If last week’s divisional contests (with the exception of the last 20 or so minutes of the Seahawks-49ers game) were any indication, we’re in for a close game on Saturday night. Another reason to support that is what I said above about how 1 seeds perform ATS in the Divisional Round. Combine that with the uncertainty around Jalen Hurts’ shoulder and the general feistiness of the Giants, and you have the makings of a physical divisional bloodbath. Both of these defenses will show up and show out on the big stage. In my opinion, this game comes down to whichever offense can execute better in key moments down the stretch. New York’s offense looked surgical from start to finish last week in Minnesota, but that was against one of the league’s worst defenses. On a cold night against a fantastic Philly defense, they will have a tougher time. While there are questions around Hurts and his injury, I think he has had more than enough time off to heal and get ready for this game. If the Birds offensive line can keep him upright and get enough push on the Eagles’ patented run plays, then they could win this game comfortably. It will be tough against a stout Giants front, but I like Philly in that matchup. It will take a few key plays late from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense, but they will be the ones celebrating by the end of the night en route to the title game.

Bills 30-27 Bengals

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, CBS

This is easily my most anticipated matchup of this round, if not this entire season, and I think it’ll easily be the best game of the weekend. That’s exactly what I said when these teams met three weeks ago. I’m just as excited now as I was then, and I can’t wait to see them play a full playoff game against one another. However, my pick is different this time, and it’s hard to explain. I still think the Bengals are the better team, and I still think they’re the best team in the league. I think people who believe they’re somehow worse because they struggled in primetime against a division rival are vastly misguided. I think Joe Burrow is better than Josh Allen. I think Ja’Marr Chase might be better than Stefon Diggs. The Bengals can actually run the ball with a good backfield whereas the Bills can’t run the ball with anyone but their QB. And at this point, Cincinnati might have a better defense. On top of everything, Joe Burrow might be the best QB as an underdog in the league right now, and he has proven time and time again that he can go on the road and win these huge games against great teams. So why am I switching up now and picking Buffalo? The biggest reason is the injuries to Cincinnati’s offensive line. They will be without their three best linemen after they had spent all regular season healthy. Last week, Burrow was under duress quite a lot against a pass rush that’s only slightly better than the ones the Bills possess. Again, Burrow has proven that he can overcome this, but the Bengals have also proven that this can be their downfall in a big spot. But more than anything, the Bills just feel like they’re in the midst of a special run. They are playing inspired and the entire city of Buffalo is rallying behind them. They did not play a sharp game last week, but I think they’ll look much better on Sunday afternoon. If Josh Allen plays clean, mistake-free football (which I don’t feel comfortable with expecting), then the Bills have the offensive capability to win this game comfortably. All they have to do is get after Joe Burrow. If he has enough time to throw, he will make them pay. I just don’t see that being possible without his two starting tackles and best interior lineman. He has done it before, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads Cincy to another improbable victory. But I can’t bank on that right now.

49ers 31-20 Cowboys

Sunday, 6:30 PM, FOX

This is the big brand game of the weekend, and rightfully so. Cowboys-49ers in the playoffs is as classic as it gets and always seems to deliver. It certainly did last year in a thrilling Wild Card game in Dallas that ended on one of the most mind-boggling late-game plays and execution sequences in recent memory that sent the Cowboys home early and propelled the Niners to a near-Super Bowl run. This game feels quite different with San Francisco being the hottest team in the league, having won their last 11 games and barely breaking a sweat despite having to turn to Brock Purdy. The rookie continues to ball out with perhaps the best weapons in the league and easily the best defense in football behind him. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were overlooked by quite a lot of people, myself included, before going to Tampa and smacking the Bucs last Monday. They’re the underdogs in this game, but you can guarantee that they won’t go down without a fight. However, I feel like Monday night’s performance is once again swinging the pendulum of our perception of the Cowboys completely in the other direction. All of a sudden, people think they’re the best team in the NFC that can go on the road to play perhaps the best team in the league and win. I think we need to pump the brakes there. I think Dallas might be the most overmatched team in this entire round. They looked great against a Buccaneers team that we all knew was awful. How are they going to look against the 49ers? Will Dak Prescott be able to replicate his performance from last week against the best defense in the league? I say no. Will Dallas’ own defense be able to slow down San Francisco’s offense, which no one else has been able to do? I say no again. I think Purdy and company will have their way with the Cowboys’ susceptible defense, and Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the defense will lock up Dak and the Dallas offense for the most part en route to another fairly easy win for the Niners for them to get back to the conference title game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Divisional Round Picks

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, two of the brightest young star QBs in football, are ready to write another chapter in their budding rivalry on Sunday night. (h/t Syracuse.com)

The NFL is down to its proverbial Elite 8, as we have eight teams and 7 games remaining in the season to decide a champion. Wild Card Weekend was rather underwhelming, but this weekend promises to be a truly great one. The playoff pretenders are all home, and only true contenders remain. Seems like a good formula for some great football. I went 5-1 in the Wild Card round last week, which is a surefire improvement from last year. Let’s get into this weekend’s picks:

Bengals 24-20 Titans

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, CBS

The first matchup of the Divisional Round is probably the most puzzling one. Relatively speaking, the Titans are one of the more forgettable 1 seeds in recent memory, as they sort of backed their way into the first round bye without Derrick Henry. Now, Henry is back, and that is the ultimate factor in this game. He hasn’t played since Week 8, but when he was playing, he was an MVP candidate. I really don’t know how effective he’ll be seeing as though he has missed so much time and will be playing with a lot of… stuff in his injured foot. If he plays like his usual self, then the Titans should be able to win this game easily. For some reason, I just don’t see that happening. In any case, my fascination with this game lies with the Bengals. Ironically enough, this Cincinnati team reminds me a lot of the Tennessee team from 2019. An up and coming squad that was doubted in the playoffs and ended up in the AFC Championship Game. That Titans team ended up beating the 1 seed in the process. Why not have a proverbial passing of the torch here? The Bengals are an extremely inspired group, coming off the franchise’s first playoff win since 1991. Joe Burrow is on absolute fire right now, and this team just feels like a winning one. This moment might be too big for them, but no moment seems large enough for Joe Burrow. Picking the Bengals makes no practical sense given their injuries and inexperience, but sometimes you got to trust your gut.

Packers 27-16 49ers

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, FOX

This game features the scariest sight in football: a healthy Packers team. Green Bay is finally getting several key pieces back that they’ve been missing for months. Whether it be David Bakhtiari, Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander, or a plethora of other impact players, the Packers are going to be as close to 100% as they’ve been all season long on Saturday night. This team has been the best in football without all of those pieces, so with everyone back, it is the definition of scary hours. This is the biggest mismatch in terms of seeding in this round, as the 49ers were the only wild card team to win last week, but San Francisco is still a solid team that will surely put up a fight in this game. For one, Aaron Rodgers has never beaten the 49ers in the playoffs, with losses in 2012, 2013, and 2019. But, this is obviously a very different set of circumstances. The Niners were easily the better team in all of those years, but things are different now. Not only are they lucky to be here, but San Francisco is dealing with a lot of injuries defensively, and Jimmy Garoppolo likely won’t be 100% for this game. It’s just a bad time for them to be catching the Packers at their healthiest. I expect a huge day out of a rejuvenated Packers defense that was already one of football’s best. And as long as Aaron Rodgers and the offense do their thing, Green Bay should be just fine in securing their third consecutive trip to the NFC Championship Game.

Rams 29-21 Buccaneers

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, NBC

In the preseason, this was my pick to be the NFC Championship Game. Evidently, I was a week off. Still, this is a playoff matchup that I have been anticipating for months, and I can’t wait to see it finally play out. These two teams met way back in Week 3, with the Rams winning convincingly in LA. But, a lot has changed since then with both of these teams. Whether it be player additions or subtractions, these are very different squads now. In my preseason prediction, I picked the Buccaneers to win this game. But, I can’t bring myself to do that now. There are several reasons why. For one, Tampa is dealing with more injuries than anyone else in the NFC right now, as their offensive line is extremely banged up and their secondary is still as thin as it was in the regular season. Tom Brady took a beating in the second half of last week’s game thanks to a thin OL, so facing the Rams front seven this week doesn’t inspire much confidence. Moreover, as I stated last week, the Bucs weren’t very impressive down the stretch in the regular season, and last week’s blowout of a very bad Eagles team doesn’t change my perspective on them. Meanwhile, the Rams are looking as good as ever coming off of last week’s clinic of a victory. This will no doubt be a tough road test for them, but I truly believe that they are up to the task. Both sides of the ball are firing on all cylinders, and as I’ve said so many times, it’s hard to envision anyone in football beating them when they are at their best. I know that picking against Tom Brady in the playoffs is as big of a cardinal sin as there is in this world, but all signs are pointing towards a Rams win here. The Bucs are simply too beat up right now, and the Rams are just too hot to pick against.

Chiefs 26-23 Bills

Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, CBS

Between last season and this one, Kansas City and Buffalo appear to be building the NFL’s next great rivalry. These two teams met in last year’s AFC Championship Game with the Chiefs advancing to the Super Bowl, but the Bills got some payback with a dominant win in Kansas City earlier this season. A lot has changed with both of these teams in the time since that Week 5 matchup, and it has all led to another playoff rematch. The Chiefs have sured up their defense since Josh Allen tore them apart, and after stagnating a little in the middle of the season, Patrick Mahomes and the offense are back to looking like their usual selves. Meanwhile, the Bills are also back to their old selves after finishing the regular season red hot and carrying that momentum over into one of the most dominant playoff performances I’ve ever seen last week against New England. Simply put, this game is two unstoppable forces colliding. This is what the playoffs are all about. This is as difficult of a pick as I’ve ever had to make. It’s simply too hard to pick against the Chiefs here. For one, Patrick Mahomes has been virtually unbeatable at home in the playoffs. This team ripped off an insane run last week, albeit against a subpar Steelers team. The Bills looked even more unstoppable last week, and Josh Allen is playing as lights out as anyone I’ve seen in recent memory. Buffalo’s defense is also playing great, but this will be their tallest task of the season. It’s just hard to pick the Bills when I’ve seen Kansas City prove themselves in this moment so many times, whereas Buffalo never has. This is their perfect opportunity to do so, but until I see it, I can’t pick them, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if they are able to pull off this upset. In any case, this game should be fantastic.

All stats taken from ESPN.