Tag: picks

Week 12 Picks

Thanksgiving is upon us with an absolute feast of a schedule of games throughout the holiday weekend. Here are my picks for one of the most stacked slates of the season.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 9-5

Season Total: 95-67-1

Bills 27-20 Lions

Thursday, 12:30 PM EST, CBS

Thanksgiving kicks off with what should be a very entertaining game in Detroit. The Bills are playing their second straight game at Ford Field after the blizzard moved their game there last week. They’re going to be much more comfortable in this game than they were on Sunday against Cleveland, and I think their offense is going to look much better. Josh Allen should be able to string together a solid performance, and he has a penchant for tearing it up on Thanksgiving. I do think the Lions will be competitive though. They’re on a three-game win streak and have looked very good on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. They won’t back down from this challenge at all. But I think this is a bit too tall of a mountain for them to climb.

Cowboys 26-13 Giants

Thursday, 4:30 PM EST, FOX

If last week was any indication, then this game shouldn’t be close. The Cowboys are 9.5-point favorites for a reason. They looked unstoppable on both sides of the ball last week in Minnesota, while the Giants lost to a Lions team that hasn’t been anything special this season. Now, the Cowboys come home and should be able to handle this Giants team with ease. They already beat them this year on the road, and that was when Cooper Rush was starting. With Dak back and playing great ball, and with that defense being as dominant as they are, I think this one could be a blowout.

Patriots 20-17 Vikings

Thursday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Everyone is jumping ship on the Vikings after their embarrassment/exposé last week. While I’m not ready to give up on them, I do think this is going to be another brutal matchup for them. New England’s defense has been great, and Kirk Cousins is bound to struggle in primetime against another stout defensive front. New England’s offense isn’t anything special, but they should look much better than they did last week amidst the elements in Foxboro. I just think this matchup plays right into the strengths of the Patriots with their defense and run game, and they should be able to escape with a close win.

Browns 21-18 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is one of the more even matchups of the week for me. I think the Bucs are a better team than the Browns, but this feels like a very winnable game for Cleveland. Tampa is coming off a bye and had some good momentum going into it, but this is a tough road test for them. The Browns have been losing, but they’ve been competitive. Amari Cooper has been playing fantastic, and if they can get Nick Chubb going, then they can win any game. The key to this one is how the Buccaneers offense looks coming out of their bye. I’d like to think that they won’t be completely lethargic, but they have been lacking something all year long. This is a great opportunity to prove their worth as they try to get back over .500.

Titans 23-20 Bengals

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This rematch of last year’s divisional playoff matchup should be a blast. This is the best game of the week in my opinion, as well as the hardest to pick. It’s easy to lean the Bengals way with how hot Joe Burrow and their offense have been, especially since Ja’Marr Chase is returning to the lineup after missing the last month or so with injury. Perhaps the result of that playoff game also lingers in people’s minds. But I just can’t bring myself to side with Cincy here. I just think this is a great matchup for the Titans. Being at home helps, but they are simply going to take advantage of all of the Bengals’ weaknesses. Their defensive front should feast on Cincinnati’s horrible offensive line, just like the Steelers did a week ago. Plus, Joe Mixon might not even play for Cincy, so Burrow will be dropping back time after time and will likely get hit over and over again. Derrick Henry has been unstoppable, and considering the Bengals couldn’t stop Najee Harris last week, I think the King could have another huge game. As long as Ryan Tannehill limits his mistakes and the defense keeps Burrow and company in check, the Titans should be able to out-execute the Bengals down the stretch and come away with this win. Or, Burrow and Chase could explode like they always do and carry Cincy to a win. Neither result would shock me.

Dolphins 38-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Dolphins are one of the best teams in the NFL with perhaps the best, most explosive, most dynamic offense in the NFL. The Texans are the worst team in the league by a solid margin. This will be a complete wash. Next!

Jets 20-17 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Jets are finally doing the right thing and benching Zach Wilson. It’s about damn time. I’m glad they’re owning up to their mistakes. The reins are now being handed to Mike White, who was a bit up and down last year, but is definitely an upgrade over Wilson. If all else fails, they can always turn to Joe Flacco again, who wasn’t awful in his few starts this year. Regardless, I think the Jets are simply the better team in this game, and I expect their defense to do the heavy lifting on Sunday. The Bears will likely be able to play Justin Fields, but his shoulder injury will limit him. If they can ride David Montgomery all game long, then they could win. But that just doesn’t seem feasible.

Commanders 23-13 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

There is not a universe where this game should be remotely close. The Falcons are a team that is incapable of throwing the football, boasting the second worst passing offense in the league with a measly 154.5 yards/game. They just lost one of their only viable pass-catchers with Kyle Pitts’ knee injury. While they’re a good running team, they’re going up against one of the most stout run defenses in the league on the road. The Commanders have give up the sixth least rushing yards per game in the NFL, and the defense is only getting hotter. With Chase Young finally returning to the lineup, they’ll have even more juice on that side of the ball. Like last week, the Commanders offense won’t have to do too much for them to come away with a win. All they have to do is rely on the run game and let their defense do the rest.

Panthers 13-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Similar to the Broncos game a week ago, I don’t want anything to do with this, and I know you don’t either. I can’t believe I’m trusting Sam Darnold of all people to win a game, but like last week, I’m just going to drop this here and move on.

Ravens 24-20 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is a weird matchup. No matter what my pick would have been, I know I would feel weird about it. On one hand, I feel like the Jaguars could be competitive and maybe even win this game coming out of their bye. The Ravens looked dreadful last week and didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in their offense. On the other hand, this is another Florida homecoming for Lamar Jackson, and the first one went swimmingly. So, who’s to say it won’t happen again? I feel like Baltimore is going to look much better offensively in this game than they did last Sunday, but I also think the Jaguars are going to give them fits for a bit. It will probably be close for a while, but the Ravens pulling away late makes sense to me.

Chargers 27-24 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams suffered pretty tough primetime losses to division rivals last week. That makes this pick extremely difficult. The Chargers showed me infinitely more to like than the Cardinals did, especially offensively. Justin Herbert looked great now that he has all of his weapons available. We still don’t really know what’s going on at QB for Arizona, so it’s hard to put any faith in them to win. I do like both of their options, but, neither are better than Herbert. Moreover, the Cards defense got absolutely smacked on Monday, and I think that LA can take advantage of their weaknesses in the secondary. I just think the Chargers are ever so slightly better on both sides of the ball, so they’re my pick, even in a tough road setting.

Seahawks 24-16 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

I don’t see a world where the Seahawks lose at home off a bye to a team as bad as the Raiders. The last time we saw Seattle was in Munich, where they suffered a tough loss to the Bucs. Now, they’re well rested off the international break, and should be ready to come home and smack a bad team. I’m honestly pretty excited to see how their offense plays. They can either lay a dud like they did in Germany, or they can get back to their dominant ways from the first half of the season. The latter seems much more likely, especially in a matchup like this.

Chiefs 31-10 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

A lot has changed for both of these teams since their absolute classic of a meeting four years ago in LA. The Rams have changed infinitely more than the Chiefs have, specifically in the department of being a good team. Kansas City is easily the best team in football, while the Rams have become a laughingstock that sold their soul for a ring. By all means, this should be a complete blowout for the Chiefs. They are hot and are showing no signs of slowing down. The Rams might not even have Matthew Stafford for this game, so that makes it even easier to project a total wash for KC.

49ers 24-13 Saints

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The Saints got their mojo back last week, but they’re about to run into a complete wall in San Francisco. The 49ers are far and away the best defensive team in the league, and New Orleans doesn’t pose enough of an offensive threat to make me believe that this one will be close. Moreover, the Niners offense was clicking better than ever before on Monday night in Mexico. At home against an arguably worse defense, I see no reason for them to slow down.

Eagles 27-19 Packers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

The Eagles need a game to get back on track and return to their dominant form from the first half of the season. I think this is their opportunity. Coming back home for another primetime game against a struggling Packers team seems like a promising chance to find themselves again. I think Jalen Hurts is going to have a huge game, and more importantly, I think Philly’s defense is going to bounce back in a massive way and put together a dominant performance. If the Eagles can limit Green Bay’s offense similar to how Tennessee did last Thursday, then they’ll control this one from start to finish.

Colts 16-13 Steelers

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

This is going to be low-scoring, smash mouth football from end to end. Both of these teams like playing defense and at least trying to run the ball, and both teams have done well at doing both of those things in recent weeks. The Colts have found their run game again since Jeff Saturday became coach, and the Steelers have seemingly unlocked Najee Harris again. So, that will be the name of this game, especially considering that both QBs aren’t exactly world-beaters. With this game being in Indianapolis where the Colts nearly just beat the Eagles, it’s pretty easy to pick Indy to win, but I think it’s going to be close and honestly pretty entertaining.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 11 Picks

Last week’s upsets made for a losing record after several great performances. Let’s try to get back on track this week.

Cover photo taken from Dallas Cowboys.

Last Week: 6-8

Season Total: 86-62-1

Packers 20-17 Titans

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

This week’s Thursday nighter is going to be a strange one. Both of these teams are in weird spots right now, with both picking up wins last week but still in a really precarious spot on the season. Both Green Bay and Tennessee could really use a win here, but the Packers need one infinitely more. I think they have some great momentum from their comeback last week and have found a wrinkle in their offense by getting Christian Watson involved. While I think the Titans defense is probably the best unit in this game, it’s hard to bet against the Packers at Lambeau with everything going right for them. Plus, I just don’t know what to make of Tennessee’s offense right now. This is bound to come back to bite me, but I’m rolling with the hot hand.

Bears 26-23 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I don’t trust the Bears to win a game convincingly to save my life. Hell, I don’t know if I even trust them to win a game at all at this point. But the Falcons are simply a team that’s reeling more than almost any other in football right now. Even at home, I don’t see anything to like with them. At least Chicago has Justin Fields, who has been one of the most unstoppable players in the league for the last month. I don’t know if he’ll be able to continue replicating his incredible performances, but I know I can trust him more than anyone on Atlanta. Maybe, just maybe, this is the one that the Bears finally win.

Bills 17-14 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The big storyline here is the weather. It’s going to be one of the biggest blizzards that someone ever decides to play football in with plenty of wind to boot. So, at the very least, this is going to be low scoring and close (as long as they don’t move the game). I actually wanted to pick Cleveland here, seeing as though the conditions likely favor the better running team. But there’s simply no way I can pick the Browns in a game like this. The Bills need this win badly, and these conditions favor them seeing as though they’re built for it. I know they lost to New England last year in that frigid wind-fest, but I just feel like this one will be different.

Eagles 24-16 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Eagles finally suffered their first loss on Monday night, and I think it’s safe to say they won’t have many more games like that for the remainder of the season. They have a great opportunity to bounce back in this one. If last week was any indication, the Colts will be feisty, especially returning home, so I think this game will be close for a bit. But the Eagles are simply so much better than Indy is on both sides of the ball, and that will prove to be the difference. They won’t let themselves get physically dominated like they did against Washington.

Patriots 25-17 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Let me get a couple of things straight. I think the Jets are better than the Patriots. I also don’t think this game should be a blowout. But history is simply pulling me in this direction. The Patriots own the Jets so bad that it’s almost embarrassing. Every time you think New York has the team that can overcome New England, they collapse. It happened earlier this year when I picked the Jets, so I’m simply not going to make that same mistake again. I think it’s worth noting that I have only picked one (1) Jets game correctly all year long, and that was when they beat Denver. So, take this with a grain of salt. I just don’t trust Zach Wilson to not give this game away like he always does. He has been awful in every game he has played against the Patriots, and I don’t see that changing. All New England has to do is capitalize on those mistakes, and they’ll be golden.

Saints 19-13 Rams

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Remember when these teams were good? Yeah, those were the days. Now, they’re two of the most unwatchable teams in football that will make this game an eyesore from start to finish. At least the uniform matchup is gonna be great! Simply put, the Rams are going to accomplish absolutely nothing with Cooper Kupp out. He is their entire offense, and they won’t be able to move the ball whatsoever, even against an awful Saints D. New Orleans has nothing promising on offense either, but they certainly have more to like than LA at this point. All they have to do is get Alvin Kamara involved, and they will win. It’s hard to tell whether or not they will, but you just have to pray they use common sense.

Giants 23-20 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I wanted to pick the Lions so bad here. I just want the Giants to lose so bad. The question is whether or not I can trust Detroit in a spot like this. All signs point towards a resounding no, but they did put together another nice performance last week in Chicago, and that was a similar road environment to this one. But I just think this all boils down to a very simple matchup to assess. The Giants are the third best rushing team in football with 164 yards/game, led by this year’s top RB in Saquon Barkley. The Lions, meanwhile, have the second worst rush defense in the league, giving up an incomprehensible 160 yards/game on the ground. So, this will come down to whether or not Detroit can stop Barkley and the Giants on the ground. I simply do not see that happening. Maybe they can force Daniel Jones into some mistakes like they did last week with Justin Fields, but New York is simply better defensively than Chicago is, and that will also prove to be a huge factor.

Ravens 27-16 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

A 13-point spread seems a bit harsh, but this should be a blowout for Baltimore. They’re coming off a bye and likely getting some key offensive pieces back like Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards. The Panthers are coming off a mini-bye and a win last Thursday, but this is an infinitely tougher test than that one. Combine that with the fact that Baker Mayfield is starting this game for Carolina, and you have a disaster waiting to happen. The Ravens are way better on both sides of the ball and should control this one from start to finish.

Commanders 22-19 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is a must-win game. We cannot lose to the Texans after what we’ve done in the last 5 weeks. That’s the type of loss that completely derails a season beyond repair. This team has to stay focused and keep the good things going. This is the place where it would be so typical for them to lose. It has to be different this time. Yes, the Texans are a perfectly competitive team, but they also have the worst record in the league. I don’t care what the situation is. You have to win. The defense has to keep playing lights out, and boy would I love to see Chase Young make a huge impact in his return. The run game has to keep on moving the ball and making Taylor Heinicke’s life easier. And he has to keep feeding Terry McLaurin all game long. The formula is there and we should be able to execute it against the worst team in the league. Just… don’t lose.

Broncos 17-14 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

I hate both of these teams so much that I don’t even want to pick this game. I don’t want to even think about this game. I’ll just drop this here and move on.

Vikings 26-23 Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

On paper, this is probably the game of the week. Look at the Vikings getting so much national love! Good for them. That’s great and all, but I really need them to pull through and win another one. They are coming off an incredibly draining, emotional win last week in Buffalo. They could either keep that momentum up and come home to pull off another huge win, or they could fall flat on the national stage. While the latter seems more likely, I’m not going to lose faith in this time that I’ve been riding all year long. The Cowboys are coming off a 4th quarter collapse and probably want to bounce back in dominant fashion, but it’s going to be hard. Minnesota is playing great offense and the defense has some mojo now. This is such an air-tight matchup that is so difficult to pick, but I just think the Vikings are the better team, so I have to rock with them. This is another opportunity for them to make a massive statement, and I think they’ll be up to the task.

Bengals 20-19 Steelers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Contrary to what you might think, this game should also be pretty tight. For starters, the first meeting between these teams was absolutely insane, and Joe Burrow had 5 turnovers. So don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Cincy will just roll in this game. I think Pittsburgh not having Minkah Fitzpatrick is a huge deal, but having TJ Watt is an even bigger deal. His impact was felt in a massive way last week, and I think the Steelers defense will once again make life uncomfortable for Joe Burrow, especially while he’s still without Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals we saw two weeks ago against Carolina are nowhere close to the Bengals we’ll see this Sunday. This all boils down to whether or not they can out-physical their bitter rival and win a tough road game. They couldn’t do it against Cleveland a few weeks ago. It’s really hard to imagine them doing it this week. But, I can’t trust Kenny Pickett and this Pittsburgh offense. At least the Browns have competent players on that side of the ball. The Steelers have nothing. By all means, this is a must-win game for Cincinnati, and I think their defense will rise to the occasion and make the difference in this game. Just don’t be surprised if it goes the other way.

Chiefs 31-20 Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

These teams are trending in completely opposite directions. The Chiefs are scorching hot and my #1 team in the league right now as Patrick Mahomes continues to shred defenses en route to potentially another MVP. They’re getting everyone involved offensively, and the defense is finally playing up to its potential. The Chargers, meanwhile, won’t stop falling apart, and there’s nothing Justin Herbert can do about it. The defense isn’t good at all and is likely going to get torched once again by this unstoppable Chiefs offense. Precedent would suggest that this will be a close game due to this being the second meeting between these teams and it being in primetime at SoFi and whatnot. To that, I simply say that I do not care. The Chiefs are leagues better than the Chargers, and Mahomes shines on primetime no matter where he plays. Give me KC in dominant fashion.

49ers 23-14 Cardinals

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

We still don’t know who will be starting at QB for the Cardinals in this game, but it doesn’t matter. The 49ers are an infinitely better team that should be able to handle them all game long. Arizona is certainly competent, and either QB gives them a good shot to win, but San Francisco’s defense will simply be too much to overcome. The Mexico crowd should also have a blast watching the Niners run all over the Cardinals’ defense, which gives up the third most points per game in the league. There could be a lot more points scored in this game, but this feels right for where these two teams stand right now.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 10 Picks

Last week was another good one for my picks, but this slate is filled with a lot of tossups that are a bit head-scratching. Hopefully it ends up being as successful as the other recent ones.

Cover photo taken from Tom’s Guide.

Last Week: 10-3

Season Total: 80-54-1

Panthers 23-20 Falcons

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

If this game has a fraction of the drama of the first meeting between these two teams, then TNF will be appointment television. While I don’t see that being the case, I think this game will be pretty close if nothing else. The Panthers will likely be out for revenge on the Falcons, considering they should have beaten them two weeks ago if it weren’t for the penalty on DJ Moore after he caught PJ Walker’s late touchdown. This is a team that has played solid since they started blowing it up except for last week’s collapse in Cincinnati. I think they’ll be able to come back home and bounce back against an Atlanta team that I just have no idea what to make of at this point.

Seahawks 21-16 Buccaneers

Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network

I understand why the Buccaneers are favored in this game. It’s pretty hard to pick against them here. They’re coming off a much-needed win, and the energy around the team feels different now. Their defense is playing great ball as well. But, all of that can be said about Seattle, who is riding a 4-game winning streak, playing great defense themselves, and is much better offensively. I need to see them be stopped to believe that they can be stopped. I’ve been raving about their winning formula for weeks now, and I think it’s going to carry them to victory once again. If the Seahawks can wear Tampa down with Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith doesn’t make mistakes, they should be able to win this one with ease.

Bills 27-17 Vikings

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I think the Vikings are a good team. A great team even. I don’t think their 7-1 record is as much of a fugazi as everyone else does. That being said, I think they’re going to be completely overmatched in this game. The Bills are coming off a very tough road loss to a divisional opponent and have played pretty subpar football for the last six quarters. I think this is a tremendous opportunity for them to come back home and smack a great team to get back on track. Minnesota’s pass defense hasn’t been great all year long, so Josh Allen should have a field day after struggling against the Jets last week. Both of these teams need this win to show us all that they’re capable of being as great as we think they can be, but I’d wager that Buffalo needs it more. In this circumstance, I think they’re going to get it in dominant fashion.

Bears 23-20 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Bears are playing great offense right now thanks to the surge of Justin Fields as both a thrower and a runner. Their defense has been struggling since trading away their key pieces, but considering their opponent this week, they should have a bounce back day. The Lions are utterly incompetent offensively on the road, and while these divisional games are always tight, I don’t trust the Lions to overcome their own offensive woes. Moreover, I just think Fields will be too much for their defense to handle. He has been sensational in recent weeks, but they only have one win to show for it. Chicago deserves this one.

Broncos 17-14 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I don’t even know what the total is in this game, but no matter what it is, just take the under. This game is going to be dominated by the two sensational defenses. We still don’t know if Ryan Tannehill is going to suit up for the Titans, but even if he does, I don’t trust him or this Tennessee offense to move the ball on Denver. And I simply never trust the Broncos offense to do anything, even off a bye. The reason I’m picking the Titans is because they’re at home and are coming off a very tough road loss. I think they’ll use this game as an opportunity to bounce back from their 5-game winning streak being snapped and ride their defense to get back in the win column.

AUDIBLE: Tennessee is going to be without major pieces on their defense such as Jeffery Simmons and Bud Dupree, so I’m simply swapping the pick to Denver instead. They’re a popular bet this weekend for a reason, and that reason just got a lot more convincing.

Chiefs 31-14 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

There’s not much to this one. The Jaguars have been playing well as of late, but it means nothing. They typically can’t even overcome themselves, so how are they supposed to overcome the Chiefs at Arrowhead? Patrick Mahomes is going to shred this team alive. I think the X factor here is Travis Etienne for Jacksonville. If he can produce like he usually does against a stout Chiefs front, then maybe the Jags have a chance. But if he gets stifled, then this one will be over quickly.

Dolphins 26-20 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Browns played their best game of the season going into the bye and now come out of it with a road trip down to Miami. It feels like a good matchup for them on paper, so I think this one will be close for the most part. But it’s simply impossible for me to pick against the Dolphins with how scorching hot they are offensively. While Cleveland has a solid defense, nobody has been able to stop these WRs all year long. I doubt they’ll be the first. I don’t love Miami’s defense, and I think Nick Chubb is about to feast on them all game long, but I think they can make enough plays in the secondary against Jacoby Brissett to win this one in the end.

Giants 20-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Look here! Another cakewalk of a victory for the Giants against an awful team! What a great schedule! By all accounts, the Giants win this one in a blowout. But, they never exactly look convincing, so I already know the Texans are going to hang around for a while in this one before New York uses a couple of 4th quarter drives to win it. It’s going to be extremely boring and remarkably predictable and I am going to hate it.

Steelers 17-16 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I don’t want to pick this game at all. It’s a total nightmare for me. I want to pick the Saints because I think teams typically bounce back after awful primetime performances (see their TNF loss to Arizona and following shutout of Las Vegas). At the same time, I like Mike Tomlin’s Steelers at home off a bye. This is perhaps the worst Steelers team Tomlin has ever had, but to their credit, they’ve been very competitive at home, including a win over Tampa. I just don’t know what to make of the Saints at QB, and with the Steelers likely getting TJ Watt back, their defense should feast on New Orleans’ offensive line like Baltimore just did. I hate everything about this game, but I feel comfortable with this pick.

Raiders 27-10 Colts

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

This game is going to go one of two ways. Either the Jeff Saturday era in Indy begins disastrously thanks to a blowout at the hands of one of the worst teams in the NFL or it’s going to start surprisingly well by notching an unexpected, tough, hard-fought win. I personally think the former is more likely. I have absolutely no faith in the Raiders anymore, but surely they can win a game like this. Their offense is dealing with a ton of injuries and their defense is abhorrent, but come on. The Colts are an unmitigated disaster all around without a real head coach, playcaller, or QB, and they just got smoked last week. I don’t know what their winning formula is at this point. But maybe, just maybe, they show us something we haven’t seen before in this game. If that happens, then the Raiders franchise should just fold on the spot.

Cowboys 23-20 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

Believe it or not, I actually really wanted to pick the Packers here. I think this is a huge spot for them, and them getting a win at home against a great team to turn their season around feels more likely than not. But then I remembered that they’re the 2022 Packers who do absolutely nothing well and are likely going to be put in a chokehold by Dallas and their great defense. So, I’m meeting in the middle. I see the Cowboys winning this one close after the Packers put up their best fight in months. I don’t know why I feel like the Packers are going to be competitive in this game seeing as though their last home performance was a blowout loss to the Jets. I just know that Aaron Rodgers always shows up against the Cowboys. This time, it won’t be enough. I like the Cowboys defense too much, and I think their offense will do just enough to put them over the top.

Rams 20-17 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This might be the biggest mid-off of the entire season. Both of these teams are mid enough, but considering that both Matt Stafford and Kyler Murray are dealing with injuries and might not play in this game, it could get worse. Regardless of any of that, I simply think the Rams are a better team overall with a much better defense that should be able to win them this game. That’s about all I want to talk about here. I have no interest in this matchup between two disasters of teams whatsoever.

49ers 24-20 Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This game looked a lot better on the schedule two months ago, but it could still be a fun one. I don’t have any faith in the Chargers to win this one, but I think they’ll be competitive at the very least. They always tend to make things interesting, despite their plethora of injuries. Justin Herbert seems to be healthy, and if he is, then LA can hang around in any game. But the 49ers will be too much to overcome. They’re at home and off a bye, still getting healthier and better on both sides of the ball. The last time we saw them, they destroyed the Rams and CMC looked unstoppable. I don’t see why they can’t replicate that here. It won’t be a complete wash, but I think San Francisco will control most of this game and get back above .500.

Eagles 27-17 Commanders

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

There is simply no way that the Commanders are going to win this game. They probably won’t even be competitive. For starters, the Eagles are the best team in the NFL and absolutely dismantled Washington in Week 3. This is also on Monday night, a situation where this franchise has struggled for *checks watch* ever. Taylor Heinicke is still the starting QB, so that sucks. The defense is playing well, but we all know they’re going to get gashed by one of the best offenses in football. The off-the-field drama is getting louder and worse by the day with lawsuits and controversy galore. This franchise is in total disarray right now, and it’s about to get worse with another blowout loss at the hands of a division rival. This time, the entire country is going to see it. It doesn’t get much uglier than this folks.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 9 Picks

Last week was my best of the season. Hopefully the winning ways continue this week with the shortest slate of the year thus far waiting.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 12-3

Season Total: 70-51-1

Eagles 29-14 Texans

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

It doesn’t get much simpler than this. This is the best team in the NFL facing off against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Even on the road, this should be an absolute wash for Philadelphia. The Texans have had a competitive edge to them all year long, especially at home, but this is their toughest test yet, and they haven’t looked the part in the last two weeks. They better hope they show up defensively and keep the Eagles offense at bay. In the off chance that they do, their offense has to go through that tremendous Birds defense. It’s just not going to happen. This should be another field day for Jalen Hurts and company. At least one of your teams will win on Thursday night, Philly!

Chargers 27-24 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Every time these two teams meet up, it’s absolute comedy. I’ve said it so many times before: they are the exact same franchise in two different conferences. So, at the very least, this should be close, especially with the Chargers coming off a bye. But they’re also coming all the way out east against a team that’s probably better than they are, and is certainly playing at a better level. Still, I feel like LA should come out on top here. I just don’t like how they’ve played all year long. I think the key for them is to get Austin Ekeler all the touches in the world, seeing how D’Onta Foreman dismantled the Atlanta defense last week. I don’t trust the Falcons to contain him, and with AJ Terrell likely still out, I don’t know if they can contain the passing game either. Their own offense can and will put points on the board and has shown us that they can win shootouts, but this feels like a bad matchup for them. It’s a total coinflip, so I’d avoid betting this one like the plague.

Dolphins 23-19 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is another wonky matchup for me. One one hand, the Dolphins have looked great since Tua’s return and boast the best, most productive WR duo in the NFL. They also just added Jeff Wilson and Bradley Chubb to boost the run game and the pass rush at the trade deadline. But, this is a tough road test against a Bears team that’s improving every week. Justin Fields had himself a very nice game last week against an elite defense, so who’s to say it won’t happen again? I don’t see there being a ton of points on the board here; it should be hard-fought throughout and dominated by each defense. In a game like that, I have to trust the better, more talented offense in Miami. It’s just too hard to pick against them with how scorching hot they can get offensively. I don’t see Chicago’s defense being able to stop them.

Bengals 28-17 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Bengals are a solid team that went on the road and got embarrassed on national television by a division rival. I feel extremely confident that they’re going to come home and play infinitely better against a worse opponent after being smashed like that. Even without Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow is capable of putting up numbers against a defense as bad as Carolina’s. Moreover, Cincy’s defense should be fired up and ready to make amends for how poorly they played on Monday night. This just feels like the perfect bounce-back game for Cincinnati. They’re one of my most confident plays ATS (-7) this week.

Lions 30-27 Packers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Yes, you are reading this correctly. No, I am not joking. The Lions are an actually serviceable team at home, and they very nearly beat the Dolphins last week. Their offense just finds another gear at Ford Field, and the Packers defense isn’t nearly good enough to stop them. Dan Campbell will once again be coaching for his life in this game, and Detroit is just so desperate for a win. I think they’re going to be as fired up as ever against their bitter rival and muster up enough to get their first win in 7 weeks. Moreover, I don’t like anything the Packers are doing other than finally running the ball effectively, but they’ll need to rely on Aaron Rodgers to win this game for them, which I just do not have confidence in right now. I absolutely love the Lions +3.5. What a world.

Patriots 17-13 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

There is simply no way that the Patriots are going to lose at home to a team led by Sam Ehlinger. It’s a simple calculus. Bill Belichick owns young QBs, the Patriots are a better team at home, and the Colts don’t pose a threat. It’s very likely that Jonathan Taylor will once again be out for Indianapolis (as if that means anything at this point), and after seeing how he played last week against a similar defense to New England’s, I don’t trust Ehlinger to put up enough points with his arm to win this game. The Patriots might use last week’s dominant win over the Jets to slingshot them back into playing like a real team, and an easy matchup like this should help them tremendously.

Bills 24-10 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This would not be a blowout if the Jets of 2 weeks ago were playing in it. Alas, they are without Breece Hall and still need to depend on Zach Wilson to win them football games. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, as we saw last week. He is embarrassingly bad and will be awful once again this week against a great Bills defense. While I think New York’s own defense is good enough to contain Josh Allen and company for a bit (Stefon Diggs vs. Sauce Gardner is appointment television), it’s only a matter of time before they explode. The Bills will win this game in dominant fashion on the backs of their defense, and their offense will do enough to just cover the spread.

Vikings 23-20 Commanders

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I was very close to picking us in this game. My philosophy is simple: I have to see it to believe it. I can’t pick us to beat one of the league’s elite teams just because we’ve strung together wins against some bums. I need to be proven wrong before changing my mind. The Vikings aren’t exactly the scariest, most convincing 6-1 team ever, but there is no denying how good they can be. Their offense is as dynamic and scary as any in football, and while their secondary is pretty poor, their front seven is stacked and ferocious. It’s a pretty solid matchup for Washington, who might just be able to take advantage of a bad secondary. But do we really think Taylor Heinicke can beat a great team with his arm? I think the key for us is stopping Minnesota’s offense, especially containing Justin Jefferson. If you force the Vikings to beat you on the ground, then it plays right into our defensive strength up front. If they gash us through the air, then it’s over. I think that’s the more likely scenario. That would be one hell of a way to lose to Kirk Cousins in his proverbial homecoming.

Raiders 23-20 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Like the Bengals, I don’t think the Raiders are as bad as they showed us last week. It was pretty embarrassing, but they’re simply too talented to be that awful again. It doesn’t help that they’re back on the road for an east coast trip and a 1pm kick, but it does help that they’re facing one of the worst teams in the league. The Jaguars are only doing one thing well right now, and that’s letting Travis Etienne cook. But last week was indicative that they can’t just ride him to victory. I don’t think the Raiders defense is nearly as good as Denver’s, but I don’t think the Jags can win solely on the back of #1. They’ll have to rely on Trevor Lawrence to make plays, which I can’t bet on. In a game with two pretty bad teams, you have to side with the superior talent, which lies in silver and black.

Seahawks 27-21 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This is a very tough pick to make. I feel very confident in Seattle and how they’ve played in recent weeks, including shutting down the Cardinals offense at home a few games ago. I simultaneously think that Arizona is better right now than they were in that game solely because of DeAndre Hopkins and his productivity since his return. However, I still like the Seahawks here purely based off their consistency. I know that Geno Smith is going to sling it and Kenneth Walker is going to run all over people. While I know that Kyler Murray and Hopkins will get their numbers, I don’t trust Arizona’s defense or their run game at all. They can’t win the game with only two players. Seattle’s defense will put up another solid game and the Seahawks will find a way to notch yet another win.

Buccaneers 20-17 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams have had quite the fall from grace since their classic in last year’s Divisional Round. The Rams boast one of the least productive offenses in the league including the second worst run game and a defense that continues to falter. The Buccaneers meanwhile have the worst run game, a QB who gets no favors from anyone, and a defense that is also struggling despite its talent. So, there will either be a lot of defense in this game or none at all. And there will be a lot of passes thrown. For that reason, picking the Bucs is fairly easy. They have the better QB, the better weapons, and the better defense. Oh, and they’re also at home off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday. I can’t put any faith in the Rams right now, especially with Cooper Kupp dealing with some ankle issues. He is their entire offense (hell, he’s their entire team), and if he can’t go or is less effective than usual, then they don’t stand a semblance of a chance. Tampa needs this win badly, and I think they’ll step up and make enough plays to finally snap their skid.

Chiefs 30-20 Titans

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

The Chiefs are virtually unbeatable off a bye. At home against a Titans team that nobody really feels great about in primetime, they should waltz to a win. For one, we still don’t know if Ryan Tannehill will return for Tennessee. If he does, then he’ll likely be limited. If he doesn’t, then Malik Willis gets the keys to the car for a second straight week after completing just six passes last week in an unconvincing win over Houston. I trust Derrick Henry to make this offense at least slightly productive, but on the road against a great Chiefs defense that’s starting to get healthy, it will be in vain. Patrick Mahomes and company should put up their usual fireworks. Look out for trade deadline acquisition WR Kadarius Toney to get involved and make some plays in his first game as a Chief.

Saints 26-23 Ravens

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

I feel like last week could have been the performance to get the Saints back on track, especially defensively. Stopping Lamar Jackson off a mini-bye isn’t an easy task, but I think at home in a primetime environment, they can muster up just enough to put up another solid performance. New Orleans’ offense is seemingly finding its groove as well now that Alvin Kamara is back to his dominant ways. I don’t think Baltimore’s defense can stop #41, and for what it’s worth, Andy Dalton has been solid for the Saints. He’s the inferior QB in this matchup, but Lamar’s weapons around him are dropping like flies and it’s hard to project who if anyone is going to contribute on a weekly basis. I just think this is a good matchup for the Saints, and it’s hard to pick against them at home in primetime. That’s going to be a raucous scene that could prove to be the difference.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 8 Picks

Last week was my best of the year. Let’s see if the winning ways can continue in a slate stacked with marquee matchups.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 10-4

Season Total: 58-49-1

Ravens 20-17 Buccaneers

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

This is a total coinflip. Both of these teams make it impossible to put faith in them to win games. The Bucs are at home and the public loves them, with this line shifting several points in their direction. But, they’ve also looked atrocious all year long. The Ravens are coming off a win, but it was rather unconvincing, as so many of their performances are. Still, I’m going to side with them to pull this out, and it’s mainly because of their run game. They are going to get guaranteed production out of Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, and maybe even Kenyan Drake. We just saw Tampa get bulldozed on the ground by Carolina, so the 5th ranked rushing offense should do the same. Moreover, it’s impossible to feel good about Tampa’s offense, even against a subpar Baltimore defense. If the only unit I can trust lies with the Ravens, then they’re my pick. Hopefully they can get their passing game going as well.

Broncos 13-10 Jaguars

Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, ESPN+

If you choose to wake up and watch this instead of spending your Sunday morning sleeping in, you are a sadist. This is going to be one of the worst games that the London NFL fans will ever have the displeasure of watching. I feel bad for them, genuinely. It’s still unknown whether or not Russell Wilson will suit up for the Broncos, but I don’t think it matters. This game will essentially be a repeat of last week’s game against the Jets, but since the Jaguars aren’t even half as good as New York, Denver should win this game regardless of who lines up under center. Their defense will keep the bumbling Jags offense in check and likely force multiple turnovers to set up just enough short fields to let their offense win the game. That feels way more likely than Jacksonville having some sort of offensive explosion.

Falcons 23-20 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Are the Panthers back? It’s highly unlikely. Still, this is a division game, so it should be close enough. The Falcons are no longer locks ATS, so this feels like a reasonable margin of victory. Atlanta has a lot to work on offensively, especially in the passing game, and if Carolina’s defense plays like it did last week, then they could notch another win. The Falcons have to get Drake London and Kyle Pitts as well as their other WRs involved for their offense to function effectively. They can’t run the ball 40 times a game and hope to win. I don’t know how much I trust them to do that in this game, but I think last week provided them enough of a wakeup call for them to look like they did a couple of weeks ago.

Cowboys 21-10 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I would say this is a total mismatch, but I don’t think that’s entirely the case. Yes, the Cowboys have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the Bears have looked largely incompetent offensively for the majority of the season. But, last week was their best game yet, and they looked really good against a solid Patriots D. If they can replicate that performance, or at least that level of playcalling and execution, then perhaps they can stick around. Moreover, Chicago’s defense played a very solid game on Monday night, and Dallas’ offense is nothing impressive. This game feels like it plays into the Bears’ hands as both teams currently stand, but I just can’t bet against the Cowboys defense with how incredibly they’re playing right now. I think they’ll lock things down for a game very similar to last week’s.

Dolphins 28-20 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The only reason I think this game will be close is because the Lions haven’t given us any indication that they can’t play offense at home. It’s seemingly the only place they can function. There’s no way Detroit can keep up if they don’t get their key offensive pieces back, but Amon-Ra St. Brown will play, and D’Andre Swift should as well. But, they can’t function whatsoever on the other side of the ball, so the uber-talented Dolphins offense should have a field day. Their defense also had a turnaround performance on Sunday night, so we’ll see if they can keep that going and replicate it. This really shouldn’t finish as a one-possession game.

Vikings 26-23 Cardinals

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

While this may look like a clear-cut shootout on paper, I don’t think there will be an explosion of points on the board on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are competent enough to keep the other team in check. But, I think both of these offenses are good enough to make this one very entertaining. The Vikings are well-rested off their bye and the Cardinals played last Thursday, so there shouldn’t be any fatigue for either squad. It’s two solid squads going at it with pretty much no limitations, other than Arizona’s thin backfield. But Eno Benjamin looked great in his start last week, and should be able to handle the load well. This is honestly a tighter than matchup than most people would think, but I have to take the better team in Minnesota. It helps that they’re at home and coming off a bye. Their offense should put up their typical numbers and pull away late for a hard-fought win.

Raiders 31-24 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Now this is a shootout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams go over 30 points in this game. Yes, the Saints are still very thin on offense, but that didn’t stop them from scoring 34 last week. The Raiders are also finally catching their stride offensively thanks to giving Josh Jacobs the volume of touches that he deserves. He has emerged as an OPOY candidate and should have another great game against a porous New Orleans defense. Vegas’ defense still isn’t one to put much faith in, but if this game turns out to be the shootout that I anticipate, then I can definitely trust their offense to put more points on the board. Andy Dalton is starting again for the Saints, and I think he can put up some good numbers, but this isn’t a game I think the Saints are built to win as their offense currently stands.

Jets 21-17 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Does someone want to explain to me why the Jets are getting points in this game? I know they lost Breece Hall, but Michael Carter is a solid backup, and James Robinson is bound to make a big impact in this backfield. And it’s not like the Patriots have some sort of vaunted defense; the Bears just gashed them for 60 minutes on Monday. While I have little to no faith in Zach Wilson, I don’t think he needs to do much at all for the Jets to beat a bad Patriots team that has no idea what it’s doing on offense. New England is dealing with a self-made QB fiasco, and nobody has any clue what the resolution will be. Will Mac Jones be the starter moving forward? Is Bailey Zappe going to continue to play in games? A 2-QB system doesn’t work in this league. The Jets, despite their injuries, are the better team and are dealing with a lot less internal dysfunction right now than the Patriots, so I have more than enough faith in them to win at home. What an incredible statement that is to type out.

Eagles 28-13 Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This might be the most warranted double-digit spread I’ve ever seen. The Eagles, who are the league’s best team, are coming off a bye to face a Steelers team that is in absolute shambles at home. This will not be close whatsoever. Pittsburgh, despite playing a solid game defensively last week, has no idea what it’s doing on either side of the ball, whereas Philly is the most balanced team in the league. They will have a field day offensively, running all over the Steelers decimated defense, and they will make life hell for Kenny Pickett on the other side of the ball. Wins don’t come much easier than this for an undefeated team.

Titans 21-10 Texans

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

The Texans have proven to us that they are tough out, especially in the division. They beat the Jaguars and tied with the Colts. However, they now get the best team in the division, so this one should be a loss. Tennessee is playing boring but winning football right now, simply riding Derrick Henry and their defense to wins. Considering Houston’s brutal run defense, which is the worst in football, Henry should have a field day. And while I like Davis Mills, he’ll be under duress all game long against Tennessee’s elite pass rush. I’d like to think that this one will be close, but I just don’t see that happening.

Commanders 22-19 Colts

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

What was supposed to be one of multiple Carson Wentz revenge games is now a marquee matchup between backup QBs Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger. What a time to be alive. This game will likely be an unwatchable pile of garbage, but the one thing I have no doubt about is that it will be close. Both of these defenses are playing well enough to limit the production of bad offenses with backup QBs under center. It’s just a matter of which of those two can make the plays necessary to win the game. Considering I haven’t seen anything from Sam Ehlinger since he was wearing burnt orange on Saturdays, I’ll trust Taylor Heinicke, who has been in this situation before, to pull out a close on Sunday afternoon.

49ers 24-17 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

I’m rocking with the exact same score I predicted in the first meeting between these teams. Even though that game was a relative blowout for the Niners, who have upgraded since that game, I trust the rematch to be slightly closer, especially with the Rams coming off a bye. But, I just don’t see the 49ers losing after being embarrassed last week. Moreover, they’ll be coming off a full week for Christian McCaffrey to practice and continue being integrated, so he should be a big time difference maker in this game against an average Rams defense. Unless Matt Stafford and LA come out of their week off with a suddenly reinvigorated offense, they just can’t win this one. San Francisco always has their number and their defense is bound to make amends for last week’s pitiful outing.

Seahawks 24-19 Giants

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

It’s truly remarkable to think that this game between two teams I picked to have a combined 4 wins is the only one this week between two teams with winning records. The state of the NFL in 2022 is a wacky one. This should be fun, with two young teams that are vastly overachieving meeting head to head in what should be a great environment in Seattle. I’m done giving the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt at home, but I think that will play a factor. Daniel Jones hasn’t been anything great and can be affected by something like crowd noise. But, I do think his impact on this team’s success has been more than negligible. If he can continue throwing the ball efficiently and making plays with his legs, then he can hand the rest of the game to Saquon Barkley, who can win any game on his own. But Seattle’s defense is only getting better, and their offense has been great all year long. New York has a good defense that certainly has what it takes to bottle the Seahawks offense up, especially if DK Metcalf doesn’t play, but I’m putting my faith in Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker to lead Seattle to victory yet again and stretch their first place lead.

Bills 31-14 Packers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Going into the season, this was one of the games of the year. Many saw this as a Super Bowl preview. Now, it’s a blowout waiting to happen with Buffalo being double digit favorites against a stumbling Green Bay team with no direction. The Bills will be well-rested off their bye and should absolutely dismantle this Packers team that couldn’t even find a way to beat the Commanders. Their offense will let things fly through the air and their defense will make Aaron Rodgers look like the moody drama queen he is all game long. Just take Bills -10.5 and don’t look back.

Bengals 30-20 Browns

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Simply put, these are two teams going in completely opposite directions. I know divisional primetime games are always close and low scoring and whatnot, but I just don’t see that being the case here. The Browns are bound to get ripped apart by Cincinnati’s elite passing attack that is only getting hotter as the weeks pass. I would like to think Cleveland’s rushing attack will do their usual thing, but the Bengals have a very stout defense that shouldn’t let too much by them. And we all know Jacoby Brissett can’t win this game with his arm. I think this is another huge game waiting to happen for Joe Burrow and company, even on the road.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 7 Picks

Another week us upon us as this season chugs along and somehow gets sloppier. Here are my picks for the upcoming slate of games.

Cover photo taken from NJ.com

Another week us upon us as this season chugs along and somehow gets sloppier. I personally think that this has still been a fun first six weeks, but there’s no denying that the quality of football has fallen off. This could be the week that turns things around, but this isn’t the best slate, all things considered. I had my worst performance yet last week, going 6-8 to bring my season total to 48-45-1. I’d like to think this is the week that things get better, but knowing my luck this season, that feels unlikely.

Cardinals 26-21 Saints

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

This decision lies entirely with the WRs on either side of the field. The Cardinals lost Hollywood Brown last week, but are finally getting DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension. I think he will provide a massive boost to the passing game and the offense as a whole, which is lacking in RBs, to take the load of Kyler Murray has he gets his favorite weapon back. Meanwhile, the Saints are still very thin at receiver, and could once again be without their top 3 pass-catchers. They held their own last week against a solid Bengals defense, so I think they can still be competitive here, but I think the Cardinals offense will separate themselves and be able to come away with a win against a subpar Saints defense.

Bengals 26-23 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Fun fact: the Atlanta Falcons are the only undefeated team ATS this year at a perfect 6-0. Why not keep it going? Vegas likes the Bengals by a touchdown here, but I don’t. I think they win, but Atlanta has been far too competitive to get beat that badly by a Cincinnati team that has yet to put together a complete performance this year. The Falcons are coming off a great win against a 49ers team that’s better than the Bengals are. It wouldn’t shock me if they won this game outright, but I think Cincy can make enough plays defensively to let their offense win it late, perhaps on a walkoff FG. The Bengals are getting their mojo back and it’s hard to see them losing a game like this at home.

Cowboys 27-17 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Cowboys are finally getting Dak Prescott back this week, and it’s going to allow them to look like a bonafide contender. It helps that they’re going up against the Lions, who are coming off a bye but were playing like hot garbage going into it. Yes, they have offensive prowess, but they we haven’t seen them score since Week 5. They are going up against one of the best defenses in football, and will likely be very limited once again on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, their defense can’t stop a nosebleed, and Dak will have a very easy time throwing the ball in his first game back. This one really shouldn’t be close.

Titans 23-20 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

You wanna know something crazy? This is the only game this week between two teams with winning records. The first time these teams met up, the Titans won by a possession after getting off to a hot start. I honestly see this second matchup going the exact same way. Neither of these teams is anything special, but they’re both playing solid football. I think the Titans coming off a bye is very helpful as the Colts just had a tight, close game and win over the Jags last week. They’ll be well rested and ready to run over the Colts subpar run defense, just like they did a few weeks ago.

Packers 20-17 Commanders

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is just gross, isn’t it. The Packers are falling apart and the Commanders have been falling apart for over two decades. But, someone has to win. I’d never pick us to win a game, but I do think this one will be close. The Packers are straight up bad right now, and Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a hand injury. If Green Bay just turns around and hands the ball to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon on every play, they’ll probably win by 20. But we know that’s not going to happen. I think that we can stick around for a while against a meddling Packers defense before Taylor Heinicke inevitably gives the game away. I won’t complain when it happens.

Buccaneers 21-10 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I really find it hard to believe that the Buccaneers lay a dud for the second consecutive week. I don’t like what they have going on offensively, but they’re going up against the worst team in the league that’s actively tanking. There’s no way they don’t win this one by double digits, right? Well, the Panthers could be feisty and make things interesting considering that Tampa just lost to the Steelers, but I just don’t see that happening again. They need a bounce back win, and this is their best opportunity for one.

Giants 22-16 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Giants need to take advantage of an awfully easy in the schedule in the coming weeks. It starts here with a trip to Jacksonville in a game where they are once again not getting their respect from Vegas. It’s ok, New York, I’ll give you my respect. I still don’t think they’re a contender or anything close to one, but they’re certainly better than the Jaguars. They can certainly go on the road and win this game the same way they’ve won all the others: let their defense do its thing and then run the ball to victory.

Ravens 28-19 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Browns are looking worse by the week, and while the Ravens have been a disaster in second halves this year, I’d like to think they can hold it down against a team struggling as much as Cleveland is. The Browns are especially falling apart defensively; if they let Bailey Zappe dime them up, just imagine what Lamar Jackson is about to do. Baltimore should not let this game slip away, and it really shouldn’t be close for a second. I know divisional games tend to be closer than not, but I just don’t see that being the case in Baltimore on Sunday.

Jets 16-10 Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

I am done picking against the Jets, and I am done picking the Broncos just because they’re at home. They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore in any regard. This might be the first time I have ever picked the Jets in over two years of doing this, but it’s well deserved. They have proven that they can go into tough road environments and win games based on their tough style of play. The Broncos meanwhile have proven nothing at all regardless of where or how they play. They are a worthless team that deserves none of my respect or time.

Raiders 27-20 Texans

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams are coming off byes after playing their liveliest games of the year with the Texans getting their first win and the Raiders nearly pulling off an upset in Arrowhead. For that reason, I don’t think this game will be terrible. There will be a good amount of points put on the board, and in that case, I have to trust the better offense to get the job done. Vegas is finally getting great contributions from Josh Jacobs, and it has made their offense infinitely better and more viable. I think they can continue to use their balance to score on an actually solid Texans defense and pick up a solid win at home.

Seahawks 24-21 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This pick was actually easier than I imagined it would be. The Chargers looked very unimpressive at home on Monday night, and it’s in large part thanks to their offense’s struggles in the midst of all of their injuries. The Seahawks defense has been playing solid ball as of late, and I think they will bring that momentum into this game and stifle LA enough to let Geno Smith and their offense win the game. Last week wasn’t their flashiest game, but I think they can get back to their usual flashy selves against a porous Chargers defense. It also helps that there will likely be more Seahawks fans than Chargers fans at SoFi. Maybe the 12th man can make an impact on the game as well.

49ers 23-20 Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

My pick for this game is entirely contingent on the health of San Francisco’s key defensive pieces. As of right now, we’re not sure if guys like Nick Bosa, Jimmie Ward, and Talanoa Hufanga will play for the 49ers. On the other side of the ball, Trent Williams might not be healthy enough to return either. Simply put, if the Niners are missing their best player on both sides of the ball, I can’t pick them to win, especially against a Chiefs team coming off a very tough loss. In any case, I think this Super Bowl LIV rematch will be a ton of fun, just like that Super Bowl was. The 49ers will offense will likely be able to return to form after an off game last week and be competitive in this one, but I have to pick the healthier and better team as of right now. However, if they get healthy before Sunday, then they will win.

AUDIBLE: I’m a man of my word. Switching my pick thanks to the 49ers getting healthy on defense as well as their blockbuster trade for Christian McCaffrey.

Dolphins 23-16 Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This game could be a complete disaster. The Steelers did win last week, but Kenny Pickett got hurt and they had to go back to Mitch Trubisky. Pickett should be returning this week, and he’ll be going up against a fellow returning QB in Tua Tagovailoa, who I honestly never thought I’d see play again after the concussion incident on TNF a few weeks ago. That should help the Dolphins offense get back on track after a couple of rough weeks under Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. I think it’ll be enough for them to win the game, but I see this one being sloppy with potentially a lot of turnovers or just bad offensive play. Both of these defenses can shut things down on their best day, and this might be one of those days (or nights, I should say). Regardless, Miami has the superior talent on both sides of the ball, and that will be the difference.

Patriots 19-11 Bears

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

With all due respect to these two teams, there is no conceivable way that this game will be good and/or worth watching. I know the Patriots are coming off back to back impressive wins, but something about this team is stopping me from thinking they’re anything but the Patriots we saw in the first few weeks of the year. Bears games are always low scoring and ugly. This one feels like it won’t be an exception. I do think the Patriots are the better team by far and will be able to win, and I actually think it’ll be out of reach for a while for Chicago. The only thing I know for certain is that it’ll be an eye sore.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 6 Picks

Despite the lower number of games on the schedule this week, there are some fantastic matchups lying in wait that could make this the best slate of the season thus far. Here are my picks for this week’s contests.

Cover photo taken from New York Post.

The young season charges on with our first week featuring byes. Despite the lower number of games on the schedule, there are some fantastic matchups lying in wait that could make this the best slate of the season thus far. We could use a great weekend of football after some really sloppy games scattered across the league in the first month or so. I had another so-so performance last week, going 9-7 yet again to bring my season total to 42-37-1. A winning week is a positive, but I think we can still do a lot better. Let’s get into my picks for this week.

Bears 19-16 Commanders

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

I don’t want to watch this game. You don’t want to watch this game. Nobody in the world wants to watch this game. It’s a crying shame that this is a primetime affair. Let’s just get it out of the way. Both of these teams are dreadful, but one is clearly worse than the other. I don’t even want to talk about that team. Chicago can run the ball, and Justin Fields had a very good game last week. Despite the loss, I think the Bears can carry that momentum into this game and get the job done at home. They can just ride their backfield tandem of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and trust their defense to get the turnovers that the other team is so prone to.

49ers 24-16 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

By all means, this game should not be close at all. The Falcons are just confusing on both sides of the ball while the 49ers have the NFL’s best defense right now and are finding their groove offensively. I don’t think the Falcons have a chance in this game, but I have to respect that they’re a home and it’s a long road trip for San Francisco. Maybe just maybe Atlanta’s offense finally finds a rhythm with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but we don’t even know if either of them will play. It’s just a really bad matchup against a team that’s playing elite football.

Browns 20-17 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This one is a total coinflip for me. I’m just pulling a Vegas and giving the home team a 3-point cushion. The Patriots looked way better than I imagined last week on both sides of the ball. Their offense is nothing special, but their defense seems to have returned to form. If they could shut down the Lions like they did, then they could probably shut the Browns down too, right? Well, it’s hard to replicate that on the road. I think Cleveland knows how imperative it is to win this game, and I think they’re going to come out and play a complete game. They need bigger contributions from the pass game, and I think they can finally get it. It’ll be a defensive showdown, and I trust the better offense at home to win the game.

Packers 27-21 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is weird. It just feels weird. It might be because the Jets are 3-2. It might be because the Packers are also 3-2 and just playing some really mediocre football. There’s a real chance for the Jets to win this game, which is quite frankly unfathomable. But, it’s damn near impossible to walk into Lambeau and win, especially for a young team like New York, even though they’re playing well since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup. I think they can hang around and keep things close, disrupting the game on both sides of the ball, but the Packers will do that thing where they win the game late and the media fawns over them for another week. It’s just written in the stars.

Jaguars 21-18 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams are skidding and remarkably mid. To pick a winner here comes down to yet another coinflip. Although the Colts have arguably shown me more to like this year as a whole and are at home in this game, I just think the Jaguars are poised to end their losing streak and get back on track in this division race. I don’t see how their offense puts up a worse performance than they did last week, even if they are on the road against a better team. I think they’ll come out and play a much better game to just barely edge out a huge division win.

Vikings 26-19 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

At the end of the day, this decision comes down to picking between one of the best teams in the league or another great team that just so happens to be starting a 3rd string QB. Skylar Thompson will get the nod for the Dolphins after being inserted into last week’s game, and if that performance was any indication, there’s no reason to pick the Dolphins here. Maybe he’ll play better after a full week of practice, but this is a much taller test than the Jets were, so I just fail to see how the Vikings lose this game. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, so if their defense tightens up and plays better, this one might not be close.

Bengals 30-20 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This one should be fun. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are coming “home” to Louisiana for a game in the building where Burrow capped off the greatest season for a college QB in history less than three years ago. They’ll be facing a slightly better team this time around, though. The Saints are a tough out at home, but last week showed us that they just aren’t as formidable as we may have thought, getting absolutely scorched by the Seahawks. If there’s any game for the Bengals to figure out their offensive woes in the passing game, it’s this one. Considering New Orleans’ offensive injuries at the WR position, Cincy’s defense should be able to feast as well. There will be plenty of points put up on the board, and there’s no doubt in my mind that the Bengals are far more capable of putting up more than a team whose #1 option on offense is Taysom Hill.

Ravens 26-17 Giants

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Imagine telling someone last month that the Giants would come into this game with a better record than the Ravens. Regardless of that fact, I think both of these teams will be leaving with the same record on Sunday. Yes, the Giants are playing good football. Yes, they’re at home. But I still can’t pick them to beat a team as good as the Ravens are. I do think they have what it takes to contain Baltimore’s offense for the most part, but I trust Lamar Jackson more than anyone else in this game to make the plays necessary to win. I think he’ll be the difference late as the Ravens pull away for a hard-fought win against an honestly good team.

Buccaneers 31-10 Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is going to be ugly. The Buccaneers offense is slowly but surely getting back on track, and playing the atrocious Steelers defense will help accelerate that process. Moreover, Kenny Pickett now has to play his second start against an arguably better defense than the one that held him to 3 points last week. It’s going to be another disaster from start to finish in Pittsburgh, and the Bucs should be thankful that they have this game on their schedule to help them get right as the young season progresses and they continue to get healthy.

Rams 30-13 Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

Like the Bucs above them, the Rams must be so thankful that they’re getting this game at the perfect time. The Panthers are the biggest mess in the NFL having just fired their head coach and have all of their stars on the trade block. Oh, and they’ll also be starting a 3rd stringer at QB. Los Angeles gets this dumpster fire of a team at home after back to back brutal losses in which their offense was nonexistent. It’s safe to say they’ll look more like their 2021 selves in this one. Both sides of the ball should feast on a team that had absolutely nothing going for them before this week’s events and now has even less going for them.

Seahawks 27-24 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This might be the most overlooked game of the week. These are two teams that have brought some fireworks to their games this season in a pretty important game for both of them within this division. Nobody really knows what to make of either squad other than the fact that it’s seemingly impossible to look away whenever they take the field. The Seahawks have an improbably explosive offense, and the Cardinals are just the Cardinals. I think this is going to be a lot of fun, and I’m going to rock with the home team in Seattle even though the last time I did that, it came back to bite me. I just like the way this team is playing more than Arizona, who is super thin on offense at the moment. It’s yet another coinflip, but how can I pick against Geno Smith at this point?

Chiefs 33-30 Bills

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Here it is. The Game of the Year. The rematch that we’ve all been dying to see for nearly a year. After these teams gave us perhaps the best game we’ve ever seen in last year’s Divisional Round game, all we’ve wanted to see is them face off once again. A playoff matchup obviously holds much more weight, but this will still be the most anticipated game of the regular season, maybe the best one yet again. The storylines are all over the place and speak for themselves, and quite frankly, everything about how these teams match up with one another favors the Bills. Maybe that’s why they’re 3-point favorites on the road, something rather unprecedented for the Chiefs at home with Patrick Mahomes. They have the far better defense in this game, as they’ve been playing the best on that side of the ball in the AFC. Josh Allen has been putting up unbelievable numbers, and outside of a wacky game in Miami, this offense has been unstoppable. But then again, so has Kansas City’s. They had their own weird loss in Indianapolis, but that was not at the fault of their offense. In every other game, Mahomes and company have looked as dynamic and limitless as ever. Again, their defense could be better, but this game has shootout written all over it, just like last year’s playoff game. How can I pick against the Chiefs, who get it done in this situation time and time again? I know the Bills won in Arrowhead last year in the regular season, but nobody remembers that after the playoff game. I don’t see them getting it done this time around unless their defense steps up in a huge way in their toughest test of the year by a long stretch. It’s entirely possible for that to happen, but you won’t catch me betting against Patrick Mahomes.

Eagles 23-20 Cowboys

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Yet another NFC East primetime clash. Everyone rejoices yet again! In all seriousness, this is a really good game on paper, and anyone who denies that is just lying to themselves. There are just so many great matchups here. The Eagles elite offense against the Cowboys stellar defense stands out as the main one. Usually, I trust the better defense, but I haven’t seen anyone stop Philly on that side of the ball yet to trust that it can even happen. Moreover, I don’t know how much I trust the Cowboys offense with Cooper Rush on a stage like this against the Eagles’ own great defense. Being at home also tremendously helps Philadelphia here. I think it will be close throughout, but they’ll make the plays in the clutch to win it and stay unbeaten.

Chargers 20-17 Broncos

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Another Denver Broncos primetime game. Hooray for us! Thankfully, this is the last one for a while. Our eyes can finally enjoy a primetime game by not having to watch Russell Wilson and this offense any more. Hopefully this one isn’t as big of a disaster as last Thursday. I don’t think the Broncos have much of a chance with the current state of their offense, but their defense will be good enough to keep them in this game. Still, I’m not picking against Justin Herbert and the Chargers on a stage like this. They can certainly keep Denver’s offense at bay, and their offense just has to score more than two touchdowns to win the game. They should be just fine.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 5 Picks

A month of football is in the books, and things have been as unpredictable as ever. Very little is separating most teams in the league, and that’s showing in how mediocre my picks have been. Let’s try to do better this week.

Cover photo taken from Tom’s Guide.

A month of football is in the books, and things have been as unpredictable as ever. Very little is separating most teams in the league, and that’s showing in how mediocre my picks have been. I had another run-of-the-mill outing in Week 4, going 9-7 to bring my season total to 33-30-1. Any and all improvement is a good thing. Let’s try to do better this week.

Broncos 20-13 Colts

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

This is about as awful of a Thursday nighter as we could ask for. It’s made even worse by Jonathan Taylor being out for Indianapolis. Not like he’s doing anything productive this season anyways. The Broncos will also be without their star RB as they’ve lost Javonte Williams for the season with a knee injury, but I feel far more comfortable picking them thanks to their superior roster across the board. For all the woes of their offense, the other side of the ball has been fairly solid all year. It certainly helps to have one of the best homefield advantages going your way as well.

Packers 26-14 Giants

Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network

Imagine telling someone a month ago that both of these teams would come into this game with the same record. Despite that being the case, we all know how much better the Packers are. The Giants may be 3-1, but that record holds no weight at all. They are in for a rude awakening in London. It doesn’t help that they might have to rely on a third-string QB with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor nursing injuries. Against a defense as elite as Green Bay’s that spells disaster. This could be ugly.

Bills 28-17 Steelers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

While I understand the sentiment behind Vegas making the Bills a two-touchdown favorite, it’s a little too hard to see it coming to fruition. This isn’t college football, after all. I do think this should still be a resounding win for Buffalo. It remains to be seen what Kenny Pickett can do for Pittsburgh, but I think the team will play with a higher energy level in his first start. Going up against a defense like Buffalo’s will be tough for him, but I think they can put up some points. For that reason, they should at least cover a 14-point spread. But their defense still can’t stop a nosebleed, and the Bills should tear them apart.

Browns 23-20 Chargers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

How the Browns are an underdog at home against a team as thin as the Chargers are is quite confusing to me. Yes, they threw the game away last week and they didn’t put together their best game on either side of the ball. But the Chargers nearly blew a three-possession lead against the worst team in the league and didn’t look all too convincing either. Now, they have to come out east and play a very solid Cleveland team. I just don’t see them winning with the current state of their roster. The Browns should be able to bounce back and put together a more complete performance to notch a huge win at home.

Vikings 26-10 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

No need to overthink this one. The Vikings have had three weeks of wacky, tough games against solid teams. This is a tune-up that they desperately need. Their defense will finally look like they did in Week 1 thanks to playing the worst offense in football, and their offense will likely explode with some big numbers. Divisional games definitely tend to be close, but I just don’t see a world where this one is.

Lions 24-21 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with the Patriots at QB, and I don’t think anyone else does either. That makes it damn near impossible to pick them in this game. The Lions also boast the NFL’s best offense, although Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift will likely still be out. But, Jamaal Williams is as good of a RB2 as you could ask for, and the rest of the pass-catchers are more than capable, as we saw last week. The Patriots hung tough against the Packers, but this one just feels different, especially with the uncertainty at QB. Another close loss seems imminent.

Saints 23-17 Seahawks

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks have been playing better than the Saints as of late, but going into the Superdome and winning is an extremely tall task. The health of key New Orleans players is still in question, but last week showed us that their depth isn’t too big of an issue. Chris Olave has been great in the absence of Michael Thomas and Andy Dalton isn’t the worst backup in the world. This team has had some rotten luck as of late and needs a big home win like this to get their season back on track. Not many people have been able to stop Geno Smith and the Seattle offense (what a sentence), but I think the Saints can get it done.

Dolphins 22-14 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Dolphins could be starting literally anyone at the QB in this game and they’d still win with ease. I will admit that the Jets are playing solid football right now, but this is their toughest test of the season thus far. I fail to see the possibility that they’re able to slow down Miami’s offense or move the ball on their defense. Zach Wilson looked solid in his return, but not good enough to inspire confidence in him taking down a defense like this. I like Teddy Bridgewater and his electric WRs to cut through the New York secondary all game long for a nice bounce-back win.

Buccaneers 30-17 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Like so many other teams I’ve mentioned, the Falcons are playing solid football right now, but this is just way too talk of a task for them. They won last week with Marcus Mariota completing just seven passes all game long. That is not going to fly against a team like the Buccaneers who are absolutely seething after their primetime embarrassment on Sunday night. I think they’re going to bounce back in a huge way and blow their division rival out of the water. Even with Tom Brady dealing with some injuries on his throwing arm, the Bucs should be just fine. They will dominate on both sides of the ball no matter what.

Titans 23-16 Commanders

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Believe it or not, I was pretty close to picking us here. I don’t know why, but this just feels like one of those games we win to get the fans back into the season before going on a 10-game losing streak. I just couldn’t talk myself into actually picking it. All I had to do was picture the Titans defensive front against Washington’s thin, porous offensive line and Derrick Henry running against our defense to be assured that Tennessee is going to win this game. They’ve been slowly but surely playing better football. The Commanders are going in the complete opposite direction, and this should be another awful loss that could hopefully bring some change.

Jaguars 28-16 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Like I said the other day, if the Jaguars were playing in clear weather on Sunday, they probably could have won. Alas, they suffered a bitter loss, and now get to take it out on the measly Texans. Good for them. This one should be a blowout from start to finish, and the Jags offense should put up huge numbers. The defense is also going to look a lot better when they’re not facing the best rushing team in the NFL in a monsoon. This is as perfect of a scenario for a bounce-back win as you could ask for.

49ers 24-10 Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

The Panthers are spiraling out of control and are one of the worst teams in the sport that will likely fire their head coach Matt Rhule in the coming weeks. Maybe it’ll be after this blowout loss at the hands of the 49ers. San Francisco is riding the high of their huge primetime win against the Rams last week and are playing with an extreme level of confidence, especially defensively. This is the #1 total and scoring defense in the league that’s absolutely suffocating everyone they play. It doesn’t take much to suffocate Baker Mayfield and the Carolina offense. The Niners offense won’t have to do too much against an admittedly solid Panthers defense to win this one with ease.

Cowboys 20-17 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

That’s right, I’m rolling with Cooper Rush yet again. The Cowboys just give me way more to like than the Rams do, and that has been on display for several weeks now. Dallas’ offense has been more than competent with Rush at QB, and their defense is playing some of the best football of any other team in the league right now, giving up the 3rd fewest points in the league. The Rams offense has looked dreadful all year long, and I definitely see that continuing against a very good defense. Their offensive line has been the worst in the league, and the Cowboys defensive front will feast all game long. It will be far too much to overcome, so all Dallas has to do offensively is put up enough points, and they’ll be just fine.

Cardinals 27-24 Eagles

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

I know what you’re thinking. What on Earth is the merit to picking an upset like this? And honestly, I don’t really know. It’s just my gut feeling. Every Cardinals-Eagles game is guaranteed to be wacky and wild, and I see this one falling right in line with its predecessors. I think the Cardinals are playing much better in recent weeks and shouldn’t be written off at home despite the quality of their opponent. If there’s any QB that can give the Eagles great defense fits, it has to be Kyler Murray with his mobility. Arizona’s offense has been pretty solid even without DeAndre Hopkins, and their defense has been making tons of plays this season. Combine all of that with the fact that this season has already seen a ton of parity and I just think this game has all the makings of an upset. Obviously the Eagles are the far better team on both sides of the ball, but anything can happen on any given Sunday in this league.

Ravens 23-20 Bengals

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

It may not seem like it, but this game is actually one of the biggest of the year thus far. Both of these teams sit at 2-2 with two pretty inexcusable losses, the winner goes to 3-2 and sits atop the division, and the loser goes to 2-3 with a steep climb back up. A lot is at stake here. It’s really hard to pick against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson at home where they’ve been so great in primetime. This is a team that has trailed for all of 14 seconds all season long. I think the Bengals are playing much better after their 0-2 start, but this may be too tough of an environment for them to win in. I think their offense will put up plenty of numbers, but so will Baltimore’s. I think they walk this one off at the buzzer to atone for last week and get a much-needed return to the win column. w

Chiefs 27-17 Raiders

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

The Chiefs are arguably the NFL’s best team and put the league back on notice with last week’s huge win on Sunday night in Tampa. Now, they come back home for another primetime clash against a Raiders team that only just got their first win. So, I think we know how this one is going to go. I do think Vegas will put up a good fight in this one, as they seemingly always do against Kansas City. It’s a divisional game on primetime, so I think a blowout seems a bit far-fetched. But the Chiefs should be able to keep things under control for the majority of the game and win comfortably. Their offense will obviously be flashy, but look for their defense to make some huge plays to shut down the Raiders offense and shut things down late in the game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 4 Picks

My picks have been freezing cold, but the 2022 season is off to a blazing start through three weeks, and this one promises to keep that fire burning. Here’s how I see Week 4 playing out.

Cover photo taken from People.

October is somehow already upon us as we approach the end of the first quarter of the NFL season. The 2022 campaign has been off to a blazing start through three weeks, and this one promises to keep that going. Last week was perhaps my worst of all time, going a putrid 7-9 to bring my season total to 24-23-1. Surely this is the week it gets better. Surely.

Dolphins 21-20 Bengals

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

Week 4 kicks off with a banger on TNF: a great game with even better uniforms. These are two of the brightest young teams in football, although they’ve had nearly polar opposite starts to their seasons. Miami is the AFC’s lone unbeaten team coming off two mammoth wins over the Bills and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bengals sit at a measly 1-2, waiting until last week to get their first win over the lowly Jets. Regardless of that, I think this will be a tight game throughout and should be great. Vegas seems to like the Bengals by virtue of being at home, and it’s hard to picture Cincy losing in that white-out environment. But I’ve seen them struggle so hard against great defenses in their first two games. The Dolphins have a defense that just kept Josh Allen and the Bills at bay. While I think the matchup between Miami’s offense and Cincy’s defense is fairly even, I think the flip side will prove to be the difference. I see the Fins defense making enough plays to close things out late in this one.

Vikings 26-21 Saints

Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network

Our first London game of the year is one that looks great on paper, but might not be as good as we thought. These are two teams I’ve been pretty confident in, but haven’t given me much to like since their respective opening wins. They are both beat up and now have to deal with the long trip across the pond. So, I have to give the slight edge to the better team, which is clearly Minnesota. They didn’t play their best game last week, but they showed me infinitely more than New Orleans, who was absolutely dead from start to finish in an embarrassing loss. I just trust the Vikings more on both sides of the ball to make the plays necessary to win the game. It would help them (and my fantasy team) quite a lot if Justin Jefferson can get going again, especially with Dalvin Cook nursing an injury.

Browns 23-17 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I actually think this game has some potential to be good. On paper it looks dreadful, but these are fun teams. The Browns are actually good and the Falcons are always feisty. At home, I don’t think it’s impossible for the Falcons to pull an upset. Their offense is competent enough to put points on the board. But I think Cleveland’s defense is too stout, even though they’ll likely be without Myles Garrett. In any case, I think the Browns are too solid offensively to be stopped by Atlanta, whose defense has been gashed all year long.

Cowboys 28-16 Commanders

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

We’re unveiling the all-black alternates in this game. That’s cool. Perhaps it’ll make this somewhat easier to watch (spoiler alert: it won’t). I don’t care who plays or doesn’t play for Dallas because our guys won’t be able to do a thing against them. They can’t do anything against anyone. I just want to get this blowout out of the way so I can enjoy the rest of my Sunday.

Lions 30-20 Seahawks

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

You can bank on there being a good amount of points scored in this game. The Lions are one of three teams in the league averaging over 30 points per game, with the other two being Baltimore and Buffalo. They could easily be 3-0 on the back of their offense. Seattle’s defense is pretty porous, so Detroit should be able to do their usual damage. I don’t think it will be enough for a Geno Smith-led offense to overcome, but the Lions defense has been very hit or miss. I think this is a great opportunity for them to get their feet under them, but it remains to be seen whether or not they’re capable of it.

Colts 23-20 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Why does every Colts-Titans game feel exactly the same? It’s always so even, almost as if they’re the exact same team. In a situation like this, I’m busting out ol’ reliable and taking Indy by virtue of being the home team. Yes, I’m unoriginal and boring and basic. They also had a much more impressive win last week than Tennessee, so that helps. Moreover, the Colts should be getting a huge boost with Shaq Leonard returning to the lineup on defense. When they’re fully healthy, they’re a competent team. The Titans have yet to show me that.

Giants 17-14 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Nobody wants to watch this game. Nobody is going to watch this game. Alas, it must be picked. By some grace of the football gods, both of these teams are 2-1, which means someone is going to inexplicably be 3-1 by Sunday evening. I’ll take the Giants thanks to Chicago not knowing how to play offense in any capacity. They’re too heavily reliant on their run game, and with David Montgomery potentially being out against a solid Giants front, I don’t know if they’ll be able to ride it to victory. I somehow trust New York to make more plays on offense. That might be the first and last time I say that this year.

Eagles 26-23 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Do people realize how awesome this game is going to be? Not only is it the Doug Pederson revenge game, but these teams are playing some of the most fun football of anyone in the league right now. This might be my most anticipated game of the week. I think it’ll be much closer than Vegas expects, and if Jacksonville was at home, I’d probably pick them to win it. But on the road, an upset seems a bit too out of reach for such a young squad. Philadelphia is just too great on both sides of the ball to lose a game like this. But, I think it’s going to be highly competitive, and an upset wouldn’t shock me at all.

Steelers 19-17 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Steelers don’t feel like a team worth talking about until Kenny Pickett starts for them. Unfortunately for them, that likely won’t happen this week. You’d have to imagine Mitch Trubisky can get the job done at home against the Jets who will be fielding Zach Wilson on one leg at QB. Their defense is still a question mark with injuries across the board, but I’m putting enough faith in them to stop a team like the Jets.

Ravens 27-24 Bills

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

What a blessing it is to have such a heavyweight fight this early in the season. These are two teams with very real championship aspirations that should give us one of the best games of the week, and perhaps the whole year. While I believe the Bills are the better team, something in my gut is telling me that this will be the week that the Ravens finally put together a complete performance. I’m riding the hot hand of Lamar Jackson and trusting their defense to somehow stop Buffalo’s offense, who is coming off an incredibly exhausting game. On paper, you’d expect the Bills offense to tear Baltimore to shreds. The Ravens are giving up the most total and passing yards per game in all of football with 458 and 353 yards respectively. Moreover, Buffalo has the best total defense (214), second best total offense (441), and the best passing offense (329) in the league. So, the stats all favor Josh Allen and company. But like I said, sometimes you just have to trust your gut.

Chargers 24-19 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Chargers better hope they come out and win this game amidst all their injuries. With them being as beat up as they are, it doesn’t get much easier for them than this. Yes, it’s a road trip, but it’s one against the worst team in the league. If they lose, they’ll be in a 1-3 hole with injuries across the board, and they will be in a whole heap of trouble. I don’t see that happening, but they can’t let it happen under any circumstances. All their offense has to do is score a few touchdowns and they’ll be fine.

Cardinals 27-21 Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

These are two teams that I haven’t been able to read all season long. So, what gives in this matchup? Well, I still don’t really know. The Panthers are favored at home, but I have no doubts that the Cardinals are the better team from top to bottom. Even with Carolina coming off an impressive win, I somehow feel better about Arizona, who hasn’t scored a touchdown in two weeks. I just like their offense too much to pick against them in a game against an inferior opponent.

Packers 28-10 Patriots

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This game was never going to be close. With Brian Hoyer being under center for the Patriots for the foreseeable future, that might be the case more often than not for them. In this game, it just makes the scoring margin even wider. Green Bay boasts one of the NFL’s best defense that will make scoring impossible for New England. Their offense should also be able to have their way against a Pats D that got sliced and diced last week. This is a perfect opportunity for the Packers’ new offensive pieces to continue coalescing and getting better.

Raiders 21-17 Broncos

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This game is an unmitigated disaster on paper. The Broncos have been a mess all year long, and the Raiders have somehow been an even bigger one. This is the NFL’s lone 0-3 team going up against a Denver squad that hasn’t scored more than 16 points in a game this year. So, avert your eyes when this one is on TV. Still, we must pick a winner, so once again, give me the home team. The Raiders have to get off the schneid eventually, and although the Broncos defense is very sharp, this seems like a great opportunity for them to do so.

Buccaneers 24-20 Chiefs

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This fantastic Super Bowl LV rematch on SNF isn’t even close to the biggest story in Tampa this weekend. We can only hope that it will be safe and that the city is ok. I thought the game would be moved, but the NFL is toughing it out amidst the hurricane. They say it should be out of town by Sunday night, but it still feels a bit weird. I don’t know how much the conditions are going to affect this game, but it wasn’t going to change my pick anyways. The Buccaneers defense is simply incredible, giving up an NFL-best 9 (nine!) points per game through three weeks. Against a Chiefs offense, whose number they clearly have dating back to February 2021, that doesn’t have much big play potential, I think they can limit Patrick Mahomes enough to let their offense win the game. Tom Brady gets his WR1 back as Mike Evans returns from suspension, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones might be on their way back as well. With enough weapons on offense, I trust the Bucs to put up enough points to win any game that their defense dominates. I’m not saying it’ll be a shutdown performance like the Super Bowl was, but it’ll be enough to win.

49ers 24-17 Rams

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply have Sean McVay and the Rams’ number. They always have, and they probably always will. Yes, LA got the best of San Francisco in their last matchup in the NFC Championship Game, but we all know the Niners should have won. So, at home in primetime in a massive divisional showdown coming off a tough primetime loss, I think the 49ers are going to bring it. I think they’ll give the defending champs everything they have and win this game. More than anything, I believe their defense, which is 2nd in total yards (227) and third in points (12.3) is going to continue playing excellent football and shut down a Rams offense that is lacking in the juice they had a year ago. Even with Jimmy Garoppolo under center on offense, that’s just how this rivalry game always goes (in the regular season, at least).

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 3 Picks

Last week was quite brutal for my picks, but we can only go up from here with another great slate of games on tap.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Another week is upon us as the young season continues to grow, and this might just be the best one yet. We have some exciting games on tap this weekend, and I can’t wait to get into it. Last week was another fun one to watch, but it was a brutal one for the Picks. Outside of getting my second ever perfect prediction, things were pretty rough. I had another awful performance in Week 2, going a mediocre 8-8 to bring my season total to 17-14-1. Surely we can only go up from here… right?

Browns 20-17 Steelers

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

Week 3 opens on one of the most mid primetime matchups you could possibly imagine. Not all of us would be spending our Thursday night with Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky if we had anything else to do. Moreover, both of these teams are beat up and coming off tough losses. It should be close and could be fun, but in no situation do I see Pittsburgh coming out of here with a win. Cleveland has the far better roster from top to bottom, and with the Steelers run defense being as poor as it has been through two weeks, I think the Browns will just ride Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to victory.

Bears 19-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

As if you thought it couldn’t get any worse, we have this game on the schedule. Both of these teams are awful, we know that. But we also all know the Bears are slightly less awful. While the Texans have been more competitive in each game, they’ve played two awful teams. At least we’ve seen Chicago do thinks against competent opponents. This team could use a pick-me-up win. It’s going to be ugly, but the Bears should back above .500.

Raiders 26-23 Titans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is probably the only game this week in which both teams are virtually cooked with a loss. These two 2021 playoff teams are sitting at 0-2 after two brutal losses, and history isn’t kind to teams that start their seasons with three losses in a row. I really want to pick the Titans here, seeing as though they are at home and Vegas has to come out east for a 1pm kick. But they have shown me absolutely nothing to like this season. At least the Raiders were competitive against the Chargers and should have beaten the Cardinals. They’ve shown me more, and for that, I have to trust them to get the job done.

Chiefs 28-24 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Does this game feel… off for anyone else? Or is it just me? Yes, the Colts just got embarrassed in Jacksonville and couldn’t even beat the Texans. But this is a good home team that knows it needs to show up in a huge game like this. It won’t be enough to win, but I really think that Indy is going to give Kansas City all they can handle in this one. I definitely like them to cover the spread. Still, it’s virtually impossible to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in September, and their superior roster will prove to be the difference. Just don’t be shocked if it’s in question for a while.

Bills 29-21 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I really wanted to pick the Dolphins here. Everything is pointing towards them pulling off this upset. They had the game of their lives last week and now come back home to host the best team in football in an environment that isn’t easy for any road team to win in. I don’t think any extraneous factors will be in play though. I just think these are two great teams that are going to play a great game, and the better one will find a way to win. It’s that simple. I trust Josh Allen way more than I trust Tua Tagovailoa, and I trust the rest of the Bills roster infinitely more than the Dolphins’, especially defensively. Considering what Lamar Jackson did to Miami last week, this is likely going to be another huge day for Buffalo’s offense.

Vikings 30-27 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is going to be fun. The Lions have been a very exciting team through two weeks, using their star-studded offense to light up the scoreboard. This is the highest scoring team in football, averaging 34.5 points per game, and their defense has been surprisingly good as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off an embarrassing loss on MNF. I think that teams who suffer tough losses usually bounce back the following week, especially if they’re as good as Minnesota is, and I trust this team to win a close divisional game. They know they’re not as bad as they looked on Monday, and they’ll be out to prove it. This could very well be the game of the week, and I’m very excited to watch it.

Ravens 20-17 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

While I think the Ravens are a far better team than the Patriots are, everything about this screams close game and a potential upset. New England just isn’t a team that’s going to continue to look as bad as they have in the first two games of the season. Lamar Jackson is also nursing an elbow injury that could limit Baltimore’s now-explosive pass attack. They could be getting JK Dobbins back in this game, which would be huge. Regardless, they should be able to ride their run game to victory. It’s going to be a hard-fought battle, and the better team is going to win it.

Bengals 27-20 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Jets pulled off a miracle last week, but it’s time to return to Earth. This is a very bad team that was down 13 with 90 seconds left last week thanks to a porous defense. The offense has actually been solid with Joe Flacco at the helm thanks to the emergence of rookie WR Garrett Wilson, but now they face a stout Bengals defense. Cincinnati is desperate to get their first win, and this is the perfect opportunity for them to do so. The offense should be able to feast on a horrible Jets secondary en route to a victory. New York could stick around for a bit, but I just don’t think they have it in them to win this one.

Eagles 31-19 Commanders

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

We all saw the Eagles on Monday night. We all saw the Commanders on Sunday. Does anything else really need to be said? Philadelphia is dominant on both sides of the ball with their dynamic offense and lockdown defense. Washington has an offense that picks and chooses when they want to function properly and one of the worst defenses in football with the worst DC in the league. This one really shouldn’t be close. I know divisional games are usually scrappy fights, but not when one team is as overmatched as the Commanders are here. This will be over by halftime, but the offense will do that thing where they put up some numbers in the second half to make it look respectable. Typical.

Saints 24-10 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Even in a loss, the Saints showed us what they’re made of last week. This is a very solid team with a fantastic defense and an offense full of playmakers. The Panthers, meanwhile, are an absolute joke on both sides of the ball that simply doesn’t know how to win games. Like the divisional game above, this one should not be close at all. New Orleans is the far better team across the board and shouldn’t break a sweat in pulling off this victory.

Chargers 24-20 Jaguars

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

This one should be fun. The Chargers have proven themselves as one of the NFL’s elite contenders, and the Jaguars are finally looking like the team they want to be thanks to the impacts of their new signings and draftees and the development of Trevor Lawrence. Los Angeles is definitely the better team, but I have concerns about Justin Herbert’s health after getting beat up last week. I think it could affect how dangerous the Chargers offense can be, and it’ll be enough to let Jacksonville hang around for a while. It’ll be back and forth, but the better team will come out on top. Look for LA’s defense to make some of the game-changing plays.

Cardinals 31-27 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This is as big as it gets for a division matchup this early in the season. Both of these teams have been roller coasters through two weeks, and the winner of this game will be feeling much better about themselves than the loser. In an NFC West with a ton of questions, a win is imperative to separate yourself early in the season. Quite frankly, I don’t trust either of these teams to do so. Not only are they playing very questionable football, but I just don’t really think much of either squad. They’re on essentially the same level in my mind. So, I’ll rock with the home team, which has honestly shown me more to like. The Cardinals’ comeback win was more inspiring than anything the Rams have done this season. I think they can carry that momentum into this matchup in a huge way and come away with a much-needed win.

Seahawks 21-20 Falcons

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

Once again, these two teams are exactly the same in my head. I actually think the Falcons are slightly better, but it is very hard to win in Seattle, and I think that’ll make the difference here. While Atlanta has been much more competitive this season, the Seahawks are simply different when they play at home. Even though the team is awful, their home field advantage is real. It will be the only thing separating these two teams on Sunday.

Buccaneers 23-16 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

Simply put, the Buccaneers have the Packers’ number, and it’s largely thanks to their incredible defense. That defense is what’s carrying the team at this point, and it will need to continue to do so this week with WR Mike Evans serving a one-game suspension. Considering how Green Bay’s offense has looked through two weeks, I think they will be able to keep things under wraps and let Tom Brady and the offense win the game. To me, the key piece in this one is Leonard Fournette. We all saw the Packers get gashed on the ground by the Bears last week, and Fournette has been racking up yards like crazy in his first two games. I think Tampa can score enough by relying on their run game, and their defense will do the rest against a Green Bay offense still struggling to find its identity.

49ers 22-17 Broncos

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This game was a lot more appealing three weeks ago. Now it just feels like a big pile of nothing. The Broncos have been one of football’s most unwatchable teams this year, and the 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo back at the helm. I think it’s safe to say this won’t be the most entertaining primetime game in the world. I actually feel like the Broncos have the edge in this game with being at home, but that didn’t do much for them last week against the worst team in football. So, I’ll roll with the much better team and roster in the Niners, despite the fact that they’re dealing with a plethora of offensive injuries. San Francisco’s defense could prove to be the difference, which wouldn’t shock me considering the incompetent offense they’re going up against.

Cowboys 20-13 Giants

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

It took three weeks, but we have our first NFC East primetime game of the year! Football fans everywhere rejoice! Cooper Rush vs. Daniel Jones is probably going to be as brutal as it sounds, but this could still be fun. At the very least, it’ll be close, as so many of these games tend to be. The only exceptional unit in this game is the Cowboys defense, which has been more impressive than I could have imagined against two very good offenses. The Giants have scraped by with two close wins that don’t move me, and against an actually good team, they won’t have much going for them. It’ll be scrappy, but Dallas should win this game with relative ease.

All stats taken from ESPN.