Tag: Florida Atlantic

2023 Final Four Preview and Predictions

The 2023 NCAA Tournament has produced perhaps the wackiest, most fascinating Final Four of all time. Let’s break it down and predict how things will go down this weekend in Houston.

Cover photo taken from WFAA.

We started with 68 teams in the world’s most famous bracket, each with their own hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets in Houston. 64 games later, only four teams remain with those dreams still alive. Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and UConn have reached H-Town to compose arguably the wackiest Final Four in the long, decorated history of the NCAA Tournament. It’s only right that this wildly entertaining, upset-filled tournament is capped off with such an intriguing Final Four: the first in history with no top-3 seeds. Let’s see how these teams have reached the end of the road.

How Florida Atlantic Got Here

In nine of the previous 10 NCAA Tournaments, a team seeded seventh or lower made it all the way to the Final Four. Ninth-seeded FAU has extended that to 10 of the last 11. Despite their seeding, this isn’t a traditional Cinderella. Much was made of the Owls winning 31 games in the C-USA this season, entering the tournament as the winningest team in the field. Dusty May’s squad was ready for the challenge of being in perhaps the toughest region in this tournament. After squeaking past Memphis in round one and crushing the dreams of history-making FDU in the second round, FAU walked into Madison Square Garden and knocked off a tremendous defensive team in Tennessee and a title favorite in Kansas State to get to Houston. They’ve been down late in every game, but they always find a way to make it work down the stretch in the second half and out-execute the other team to continue racking up wins. Their balance shines brightest when it matters the most as they force timely turnovers and knock down the most important shots. Guard Johnell Davis has been the star of the show, as he has been all year long for the Owls. He leads the team in scoring in this tournament with 17.3 points per game on an efficient 45% shooting. Alijah Martin has also been a key member of the backcourt, pouring in 17 key points in the Regional Final. But perhaps the most impactful player on the floor has been Vladislav Goldin, the 7-foot sophomore who has held the paint down with tremendous results. His offense has turned up in this tournament while his defense has been impeccable. FAU’s opponents haven’t been able to deal with him yet, and if he continues to dominate the paint while the guards continue to cook, then FAU could continue this unlikely run all the way to a national championship. If that were to happen, they’d be the lowest-seeded champion in the history of the tournament, which would certainly be fitting for this year.

How San Diego State Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when SDSU drew the College of Charleston and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. The Aztecs have silenced all the doubters who had them losing at every step of the way to reach a most improbable Final Four. They easily dispatched of potential Cinderellas in Charleston and Furman before knocking off the top overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 and escaping with the narrowest of victories against red-hot Creighton in the Regional Final (no, I will not comment on the refereeing in that game). Brian Dutcher’s team has been utilizing the formula that made it so dominant in the Mountain West in 2023: defense, defense, and more defense. They’re all the way up to fourth in KenPom for defensive efficiency, and anyone who has watched a second of SDSU basketball in this tournament will tell you how suffocating they are. They defend the perimeter so well, which is key for a team that’s not too big. That propelled them to beat two of the best offenses in the field; they turned Alabama into a brick factory and clutched up late against the Bluejays in the Elite 8. That’s not to say their offense has been invisible. The guard trio of Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell, and Lamont Butler has been fantastic, with Trammell being the best of the three offensively. But if the Aztecs are to become the first ever 5 seed to win it all, it will be on the back of their defense: the very thing which got them to Houston.

How Miami Got Here

Remember on Selection Sunday when Miami drew Drake and everyone ran to pencil in a patented 5-12 upset in their brackets? Yeah, me neither. Talk about déjà vu. I personally didn’t buy into that nonsense. I thought Miami was more than talented enough to reach the second weekend. The problem I had was foreseeing them beating Houston; that seemed impossible. But after crushing Drake and Indiana, the Canes played their best game of the tournament against perhaps the best team in the field, absolutely destroying Houston in the Sweet 16. Still, I thought they’d lose to Texas in the Regional Final. I especially thought they’d lose when they fell behind by 13 in the second half of that game. But a monster comeback led by their incredible guard play sent Miami to their first ever Final Four, and the job certainly isn’t finished. This team feels like they can accomplish so much, and it’s all a part of their culture. For starters, Jim Larrañaga continues to draw blood from a stone in March. This is his second trip to the Final Four after improbably getting here with George Mason back in 2006. Last year, they made the Elite 8 as a 10 seed. Now, they’re 80 minutes away from being the first 5 seed to win a national championship. Their aforementioned guard play was their bread and butter last year, and it has carried them to this point yet again. This is clearly the best backcourt left in the field, featuring stars like ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, sharpshooting Jordan Miller, and sparkplug Nijel Pack. Each of them are averaging over 16 points per game in this tournament; Pack leads the way with 18.5. They don’t have the world’s greatest defense, but they just might have the best offense at this Final Four, and they just might have the best winning formula. Coaching and guard play wins you national championships, and I’d wager that nobody in Houston is better in either regard than the Hurricanes. The only problem they have is the juggernaut that stands in front of them.

How UConn Got Here

The Huskies are the only team that made it to Houston that I actually thought could do it. But the manner in which they’ve done it is far beyond what I could have imagined. UConn has been a buzzsaw in this tournament, destroying opponent after opponent to reach their first Final Four in nine years. Their lowest margin of victory in this tournament is 15 (!) with a total point differential of 90 (!!!). Many people thought they could’ve lost in the first round to Iona, so they ran them off the floor. Saint Mary’s posed a difficult defensive test, and they used a late run to win by double digits. Facing an Arkansas team that just knocked off top-seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16? Yawn… here’s a 23-point win. And a Regional Final against an offensive juggernaut in Gonzaga? The most dominant win of the entire tournament: a 28-point thrashing. This is a team playing some of the highest-level basketball imaginable on this stage, and they deserve to be the runaway favorites to win it all (at minus odds!). They’ve skyrocketed to the top spot on KenPom, and it feels impossible to see them losing. Dan Hurley’s team is as physically imposing and dominating as any I’ve seen in years. Just like I said before, Adama Sanogo has been by far the best player on the floor, averaging 20 points per game in the tournament and being an anchor in the paint on both sides of the ball. Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban have also been key pieces of the frontcourt. Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton have been excellent from the outside, as they have been all year long. The Huskies continue to execute their formula to perfection on both ends of the floor, and while they do so, no one can beat them. They have no excuse to not be cutting down the nets on Monday night in Houston.

My Picks

San Diego State over Florida Atlantic

Saturday, 6:09 PM EST, CBS

I’ve deliberated this for a week, but it clicked for me this morning. The Aztecs have played some sharpshooting teams in this tournament, and they turn all of their hot streaks into cold ones. They are defending the perimeter so well that they’re practically impossible to beat from the outside. They’re susceptible on the interior, which seems like it’d play right into FAU’s hands with Vlad Goldin. But I don’t think Goldin can beat SDSU all on his own. The Owls will need Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin to make a ton of shots, especially down the stretch, but that’s when the Aztecs play their tightest on the perimeter. It’s very difficult to foresee a team that shut down offenses like Alabama and Creighton lose to FAU. But if the Owls are able to consistently make shots for a full 40 minutes, then they could win this game by a comfortable margin. Their win condition is turning this game into a most unlikely shootout. I trust their shotmaking more than that of SDSU. But I think the Aztecs have a much better shot at slowing this game down and controlling the pace from start to finish, allowing their offense to settle into sets and find good looks while their defense does the rest en route to an improbable national championship appearance.

UConn over Miami

Saturday, 8:49 PM EST, CBS

This is going to be a thriller. These are by far the two best teams in the field, and while it’s a shame that this can’t be the national championship game, we’re certainly blessed to see it in the Final Four. The highlight of this game will definitely be the guard play, as it is with every Miami game. Seeing Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller square off against Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton will be a feast for the eyes, and we’re sure to see a lot of points poured in from the outside. I have no doubt that the Canes offense will do its usual thing and make things difficult for the suffocating UConn defense. They will certainly be able to hang around. The question is: how long will they be able to hang around for? We’ve seen the Huskies pull away for dominant second halves time after time. Is that bound to happen once again? I say yes. No one has made better adjustments in the final 20 minutes than Dan Hurley and UConn, and I think they’re just going to wear down the Canes in the waning moments of the game, especially down low. Adama Sanogo is a man on a mission, and I think he’s once again going to dominate the paint against a Miami defense that isn’t too imposing on the block. The Huskies are going to dominate on both ends of the floor for another second half to reach their first national championship since 2014, where they’ll be the overwhelming favorites to cut down the nets.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: East Region

The East Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament is littered with sleepers and a plethora of potential upsets. Let’s break it down and preview how the East will play out.

Cover photo taken from Purdue Sports.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the East: a region littered with sleepers and a plethora of potential upsets.

Meet the 1 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

For the last several years, Purdue and heartbreak have been synonymous in March. If there’s any team that’s built to change that narrative, it’s this one. This is Matt Painter’s best team yet that has been at or near the top of college basketball all season long, finishing the year ranked 5th in NET, 6th in KenPom, and 7th in BPI. And the one true story of this team is Zach Edey. The 7-foot 4-inch 300-pound junior and National Player of the Year-to-be has dominated college basketball for five months and is showing no signs of slowing down. In every single Purdue game, he dominates the middle of the floor, creates space, and cannot be stopped offensively. If he does miss, then he’ll just grab his own board and put it in the net. It’s virtually impossible to attack the paint offensively when Edey stands there, so you better hope you can hit your shots against the Boilers defense. Edey is as dominant and unique as a talent as college basketball has ever seen. Averaging 22 points (sixth nationally), 13 rebounds (third nationally), and two blocks per game with 26 double doubles in 33 games, he is the heart and soul of this Purdue team, and they go as he goes. That’s not to say this team doesn’t have other options; guards Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis, and Braden Smith control the backcourt and provide plenty of good scoring and passing. But all eyes will be on #15 when the Boilers are on the floor. If their opponents can’t stop Zach Edey, then Purdue may finally reach their coveted Final Four for the first time since 1980. Unfortunately, they’re the 1 seed in one of the toughest regions imaginable with some incredibly difficult teams lying in wait.

Meet the Sleeper: #6 Kentucky Wildcats

Honorable Mentions: #5 Duke, #8 Memphis, #10 USC

I’m not sure if it’s ever appropriate to call a blue blood a “sleeper” but Kentucky has flown under the radar for months now, and they’re finally starting to get their act together. Though Vanderbilt of all teams was their Achilles heel down the stretch, the Wildcats finished the year winning five of their last seven games to rise up the seed line. While their defense hasn’t been as good as they would hope, the offense has been unstoppable, scoring 80+ points in four of their last five. The star of the show remains forward Oscar Tshiebwe, last year’s National Player of the Year, who remains a rebounding machine and a walking double double. Tshiebwe averages 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds (to lead the nation) per game and has amassed 19 double doubles on the year. But the rest of the offense has plenty of capable pieces, namely Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves, who scores over 14 points per game. There are also several key pieces from last year’s team which was upset in the first round by St. Peter’s: guards Cason Wallace and Sahvir Wallace as well as forward Jacob Toppin. I can imagine this Kentucky team wants to atone for their massive failure from last season, when they had title aspirations just to lose to a 15 seed. They haven’t lived up to the hype throughout the season, but they are starting to get hot. If they can stay hot in the tournament, then nobody in the entire field will want to see them. But one of their patented bad days will send them packing.

Upset “Waiting To Happen”: #13 Louisiana over #4 Tennessee

Honorable Mention: #10 USC over #7 Michigan State

I don’t see any first round upsets in this region, but if I had to pick one to happen, it would be this one. Tennessee lost their star guard Zakai Zeigler, an elite perimeter defender, to injury, and it has had clear detriments on a team that was already spiraling downwards as the season came to a close. The Vols are trending in the wrong direction after being so dominant for so long, finishing the year 4-6. Louisiana doesn’t have anything special going on, but their offense can hit threes and rebound with the best of them. If, and that’s a pretty massive if, they get some balls to bounce their way and cash in from distance and the free throw line, they might be able to beat Tennessee’s elite defense, which ranks second in KenPom. But like I said, I think that’s far too unlikely.

Best Potential Games: #1 Purdue vs. #2 Marquette, #5 Duke vs. #6 Kentucky

Honorable Mentions: #1 Purdue vs. #5 Duke, #2 Marquette vs. #6 Kentucky

Purdue and Marquette have the 9th and 7th ranked offensive efficiencies in the country according to KenPom, respectfully. Seeing these offenses square off would be a feast for the eyes. Each team also has one of the nation’s best players in Zach Edey and Tyler Kolek, although they both make their money in vastly different ways. It would be a fascinating display of different offensive styles between two teams and coaches that are desperate for a trip to the Final Four. It would be a wildly entertaining Regional Final, but unfortunately for both squads, I don’t trust them enough to see either one of them making it that far.

Do I really need to outline why I want to see Duke and Kentucky, two Champions Classic teams and two of the greatest programs on Earth, play each other in a Regional Final at Madison Square Garden? This matchup would be everything we could hope for as college hoops fans. Both the Blue Devils and Wildcats are entering the tournament playing some of their best ball, and they are both plenty capable of making deep runs on the backs of their elite talent and coaching. This is the Regional Final I’m predicting in this region, and while I’ve been wrestling with making a pick all week long, there is one team that I’m going to continue to back, no matter how many times they let me down.

My Pick For Houston: #6 Kentucky

Honorable Mentions: #5 Duke, #8 Memphis

I am ready to get hurt again. One year after picking the Wildcats to make the Final Four only to have them lose in the first round to a 15 seed, I am once again backing Coach Calipari and Kentucky. This might not be the most talented team that Cal has ever had in Lexington, but they have a certain feeling to them. If they get hot, they can run through the teams in this region. They’re going to be hungry and desperate to prove themselves and not only make up for the shortcomings of last year, but previous years. Kentucky hasn’t made a Final Four since 2014, when they lost the title game to Shabazz Napier and UConn as an 8 seed. Who’s to say they can’t make another run as a 6? I think they got a favorable draw with a possible breeze in the first weekend before two potential shootouts in the Regionals at MSG. All they need is their offense to operate at its typical level and their defense to step up ever so slightly and they can shock the world en route to Houston.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Purdue over #16 Fairleigh Dickinson: FDU, a 16, is the shortest team in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue, a 1, has Zach Edey. You picking up what I’m putting down?

#8 Memphis over #9 Florida Atlantic: This is one of the most enticing games of the first round. Each of these squads enters the tournament red hot, with Memphis coming off a win over Houston in the AAC title game and FAU having their way with the C-USA en route to a 31-win season. This is as close as an 8-9 gets, but I’m taking the Tigers and their superior talent and coaching. And this might not be the only game they win in this tournament. I think Memphis is the team seeded eighth or lower that has the best shot of making it to Houston.

#5 Duke over #12 Oral Roberts: The Golden Eagles are back in the tournament after their historic Sweet 16 run in 2021, and everyone is jumping on them to pull off an upset over Duke. I hate to break your hearts, but that is simply not happening. The Blue Devils are peaking at the right time, playing their best ball of the year when it matters most. They haven’t lost since February 11th and just ran through the ACC Tournament; they’re primed for a deep run. This one might not be remotely close.

#4 Tennessee over #13 Louisiana: The Vols not having Zakai Zeigler will doom them in this tournament, but not here. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a popular upset pick, but I just don’t see it. Not with the athleticism and level of play that Tennessee brings to the table. This will likely be their lone win in this tournament, but it shouldn’t be too much of a challenge.

#6 Kentucky over #11 Providence: Both of these offenses are absolute treats to watch. This should be a thrilling, high-scoring affair with a juicy storyline in the Bryce Hopkins revenge game for the Friars guard who transferred from Lexington. I’m obviously rolling with the Wildcats all the way to Houston, but this will be a very tough test for them against an offense that can go blow-for-blow with theirs. The Kentucky defense should be able to be the difference.

#3 Kansas State over #14 Montana State: They don’t make games more uninteresting than this one. K State’s defense will dominate from start to finish against perhaps the worst offense in the field of 68.

#7 Michigan State over #10 USC: This is a fantastic 7-10 matchup between two teams that are plenty capable of making some noise in this tournament. Neither have achieved what they wanted to this season, but both have high ceilings that could show in March. While I think the Trojans will have the best player on the floor in Boogie Ellis, I like Sparty more across the board. The experienced backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard should be able to carry them to victory.

#2 Marquette over #15 Vermont: Despite this being a 2-15, the Catamounts won’t be a pushover. This is a great program that continues to dominate the America East and has become a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. But they don’t have what it takes to handle the offense of the Golden Eagles, who have a lot to prove in this tournament under Shaka Smart.

All stats taken from ESPN.