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2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region of the 2023 NCAA Tournament features some great teams and plenty of potential madness. Let’s break it down and preview how the Midwest will play out.

Cover photo taken from the Houston Chronicle.

Welcome back to the Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is upon us with 68 teams and 67 incredible games ahead to crown a champion. The 2022-23 college basketball season has been one of the most unique in recent memory, as the field appears to be as wide open as it has ever been. There isn’t necessarily a clear favorite in this tournament, so March Madness is sure to live up to its name in the coming weeks. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2023 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the Midwest: perhaps the strangest, most unpredictable quadrant of the entire bracket.

Meet the 1 Seed: Houston Cougars

What Kelvin Sampson continues to do at Houston is simply remarkable. Houston has been one of the most formidable teams in the nation for several years in a row, making the second weekend in each of the last 3 NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four in 2021. Now, he boasts his best team yet: one that has been on top of college basketball all season long. They sat in the #1 spot in the AP Poll for the majority of the season en route to being ranked first in BPI, NET, and KenPom and coming one game away from being the top overall seed in the tournament. This team utilizes so much of what made Houston squads of the past so strong: freak athleticism and ridiculous defense. The Cougars have both in bunches. Star guard Marcus Sasser, a First Team All-American, leads the way, averaging 17/3/3/2 and being an absolute pest on defense. Jamal Shead is his backcourt companion, who leads the team in assists and runs the offense to perfection. Forward J’Wan Roberts holds things down in the paint, averaging 10/8/1/1/1. But the player who has really helped separate Houston from the rest of the country this season has been star freshman forward Jarace Walker, a future lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. At 6’8 240, Walker is an absolute beast down low, averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Simply put, this is Coach Sampson’s best and most talented team in his time at Houston, which is really saying something. The teams of the past may have had their roads end in heartbreak, but this is a squad that feels destined to change the narrative. They deserve to be the favorites to win a fairytale hometown title.

Meet the Sleeper: #13 Kent State Golden Flashes

Honorable Mentions: #7 Texas A&M, #12 Drake

That’s right. The sleeper is the 13th-seeded team out of the MAC. And by all means, it doesn’t make a lot of sense. But this is March. Nothing makes sense! Kent State enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field, having run the table in the MAC Tournament, including a win over heavily-favored Toledo, en route to a championship. Star guard Sincere Carry leads the way for this exciting offense that puts up nearly 80 points per game. They have all the makings of a Cinderella, relying heavily on their shooting and offensive play to simply outscore teams. But the real strength of this team is their defense, which ranks in the top 40 in efficiency according to KenPom. It’s a formula that nearly earned them road wins over Gonzaga, a 3 seed in the West, and Houston, the 1 seed in this region. In a quadrant of the bracket that looks ripe with upsets, the Golden Flashes are deservedly going to be one of the trendier picks. But don’t be afraid to pick them to win more than one game. They have proven that they have what it takes to do so.

Upset Waiting To Happen: #13 Kent State over #4 Indiana

Honorable Mentions: #12 Drake over #5 Miami, #10 Penn State over #7 Texas A&M

See above. Indiana certainly is the better team in this game, and the Hoosiers almost match up too well with the Golden Flashes. Kent State is pretty undersized while Indiana has one of the best big men in the sport in First Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis and are extremely well-balanced while Kent State is much better defensively than offensively. But like I said, this is March, a time when nothing makes sense. Honestly, Indiana hasn’t been very impressive down the stretch, and I think they’re over-seeded as a 4. But this would still be a shock for most people. The best upsets are the most unexpected ones, and this could very well be one of those upsets.

Best Potential Games: #2 Texas vs. #7 Texas A&M, #1 Houston vs. #2 Texas

Honorable Mentions: #2 Texas vs. #3 Xavier, #1 Houston vs. #5 Miami (FL)

On the surface, it doesn’t get much better than Texas vs. Texas A&M. Ever since the Aggies left for the SEC, we are never graced with this glorious rivalry. To get it in the second round of this tournament would be a delight. I think Texas is one of the best teams in the field, and I think TAMU is one of the most under-seeded teams in the field. This is a second weekend-caliber game just waiting to happen in the first weekend. Both teams are crazy athletic and extremely fun to watch. I would give the edge to the Longhorns, but I have no doubt that it would be air tight from wire-to-wire in an instant classic which we would be lucky to see so early in the tournament.

The appeal of a potential Houston vs. Texas Regional Final needs no explanation. In-state rivals battling for a chance to go back to the Lone Star State for a shot at the national championship? Sign me up. This game would be a peak display of athleticism and guard play. Marcus Sasser vs. Marcus Carr, Jarace Walker vs. Timmy Allen; the matchups are just too juicy. This is actually my prediction to be the Regional Final. As for who I think will win…

My Pick For Houston: #2 Texas

Honorable Mentions: #1 Houston, #3 Xavier

I love this Texas team. They are just so damn good. They have impressed me all season long. The Longhorns could have fallen apart after a world of controversy hit the program’s head coach Chris Beard, who was dismissed from the program amidst a domestic abuse scandal. Interim HC Rodney Terry has done an incredible job getting the program back on track, going 17-7 and leading the Horns to a Big 12 Tournament championship. They rank 5th in BPI, 6th in KenPom, and 7th in the NET, boasting one of the most-well balanced lineups in all of college basketball. Marcus Carr leads the way in the backcourt, leading the team in scoring (15.9 points/game), assists (4.1/game), and steals (1.8/game). Tyrese Hunter and Sir’Jabari Rice complete one of the best backcourts in the country. Star forward Timmy Allen locks down the paint as one of this team’s key pieces, but a leg injury might have him limited or even unavailable throughout the tournament. Still, I have full faith in Texas. This is a team that went 14-8 in Quad 1 games; they are as battle-tested as any team in the field, and they have been resoundingly successful in the most important games of the year. They won the best league in the nation (by a good margin, in my opinion) in emphatic fashion. They have all the makings of a Final Four team and championship contender. I can’t wait to see what they have in store.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Houston over #16 Northern Kentucky: Cougars might win this one by 50.

#9 Auburn over #8 Iowa: This could very well be the best game of the first round. Iowa has one of the best offenses in the country, but they’re playing a pseudo road game in Birmingham against Auburn, who have the athletes and defense to slow the Hawkeyes down. It’s going to be a war from start to finish, but I don’t trust Iowa’s defense to come through in the most difficult spots down the stretch.

#5 Miami over #12 Drake: It is so tempting to pick this upset. I would honestly pick Drake if we knew that Miami big man Norchad Omier is out. But the possibility of him playing is preventing me from rolling with the Bulldogs. Besides, the Hurricanes boast some of the best guard play in the country with Jordan Miller, Nijel Pack, and ACC PotY Isaiah Wong. Moreover, much of this team has the tournament experience from last year’s Elite 8 run. That should be enough to put them over the top, even without their commanding defensive presence down low.

#13 Kent State over #4 Indiana: You get the point by now. This game should be fascinating to watch, and I can’t wait to be either vindicated or proven completely wrong.

#11 Pitt over #6 Iowa State: This is a classic case of strength vs. strength. The Cyclones excel on defense, grinding you down slowly over the course of 48 minutes. The Panthers, on the other hand, excel on offense with a subpar defense. In March, I tend to favor the superior offensive team. Moreover, teams that win in the First Four carry some momentum with them into the Round of 64, and I think Pitt will have just enough gas to pull off the upset.

#3 Xavier over #14 Kennesaw State: Xavier has one of the best offenses in the country and can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. I like what they have going on in year one under Sean Miller, but I think the loss of Zach Freemantle will prevent them from going too far in this tournament. Thankfully for them, this first game won’t be too difficult.

#7 Texas A&M over #10 Penn State: Like Iowa-Auburn, this is one of the best games of the first round on paper between two power conference teams. Both A&M and Penn State played for conference championships last weekend, and both are more than capable of playing the role of bracket buster in this tournament. Their matchup should be fascinating. I was far more impressed with the Aggies throughout the course of the season as they went 15-3 with some standout wins in the SEC, which was much tougher than the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions will hang around, but their defense won’t be able to get enough stops late to pull the mini-upset.

#2 Texas over #15 Colgate: While I think Texas will make the Final Four, it won’t start with an easy win. Colgate will not be a pushover; this is their fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, and in each of their previous three first round games, they have been competitive. The Raiders, who are the best three point shooting team in the nation, won’t go down without a fight, but they simply won’t be able to overcome the athleticism and dominance of the Longhorns for a full 48 minutes.

All stats taken from ESPN.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region of the 2022 NCAA Tournament features a ton of uncertainty and questions, and is certainly destined for madness. Let’s break it down and preview how the Midwest will play out.

Cover photo taken from Evert Nelson, The Capital-Journal.

Welcome to the Madness. The NCAA Tournament is finally back in its full glory in 2022, and if you’re not more excited than ever, you’re just lying. Last year was certainly fun, but the tournament was a shell of its usual self, with virtually no fans and a bubble in Indianapolis from start till finish. Now, March Madness is back to full strength with a plethora of different locations, and fans filling the stands all across the country. This promises to be a glorious few weeks in college basketball. To preview the tournament, I’ll be breaking down the 2022 bracket region by region. This is the preview of the Midwest: a region with seemingly more questions than anything else.

Meet the 1 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks

Bill Self’s Jayhawks are back with a 1 seed after finishing the season strong and winning the Big 12 Tournament title over Texas Tech. This is Kansas’ first 1 seed since 2018 (although they would have gotten one in 2020), where they were beat by the eventual champion, Villanova. This is a bit of a different Kansas team, but they are more than capable thanks to a plethora of experience. After last year’s Round of 32 exit as a 3 seed, Kansas returned several starters, the most notable of which being guard Ochai Agbaji, one of the best players in college basetball. Agbaji is an athletic freak, scoring nearly 20 PPG and dropping jaws from start to finish in every game he plays. He will have to be the star that we all know he can be if Kansas is to go on a deep run this March. Other returning key pieces include guards Christian Braun and Dajuan Harris Jr., as well as forwards Jalen Wilson and David McCormack. Kansas wasn’t the most consistent team all season long, but they are hot when it counts most, and they are ready to go to their first Final Four in 4 years. This is a remarkably experienced group that can score at will in addition to slamming the door shut on defense. It will be a tall task for anyone in this field to stop them.

Meet the Sleeper: #5 Iowa Hawkeyes

Honorable Mentions: #7 USC Trojans, #8 San Diego State Aztecs

One year ago, Iowa was a 2 seed led by Luka Garza, a program legend and one of the sport’s best players in recent memory. They were bounced in the Round of 32 by 7th seeded Oregon in what was Garza’s final game, and nobody thought the Hawkeyes would be able to bounce right back up. But that is exactly what head coach Fran McCaffrey has done this season in Iowa City. Iowa got red hot when the calendar flipped over to March, running the table in the Big Ten Tournament to win the title and earn a 5 seed in the dance. This team runs on experience and offensive dominance, and they have an abundance of both. It starts with forward Keegan Murray, who has become one of the best players in America. Murray, who averages 24/9/2/1/2 on 55% shooting, has been an unstoppable force as of late, and has emerged as the kind of player that can fuel a deep run for a sleeper team a la Kemba Walker for UConn in 2011. His twin brother Kris is also a key contributor, pouring in 10 PPG. Other major factors for this Hawkeyes team include guard Jordan Bohannon, in his whopping sixth season, as well as the coach’s own son, guard Patrick McCaffrey. With all the experience in the world, one of the nation’s best offenses, and a player in Keegan Murray who can captivate the nation, everyone should be keeping their eyes on Iowa all tournament long.

Upset Waiting to Happen: #13 South Dakota State over #4 Providence

Honorable Mentions: #12 Richmond over #5 Iowa, #11 Iowa State over #6 LSU

To put it plainly, Providence might be the luckiest team in college basketball. In fact, they are the luckiest team in the sport according to KenPom, and it’s not even close. The Friars are 11-2 this season in games decided by five or fewer points, and that luck doesn’t seem to thrive in March. It certainly wasn’t on display in last week’s Big East Tournament Semifinal, where Creighton absolutely ambushed them in a near-30-point blowout. This is a talented team, led by guard Jared Bynum, and an awesome story with head coach Ed Cooley, but their recent form inspires little to no confidence. They simply cut it close way too many times against inferior competition, and they’ve just happened to get by all season long. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits are as hot as anyone in the field. South Dakota State hasn’t lost in this calendar year, winning 30 games (tied with Murray State for the second most in the country behind Arizona’s 31) and earning a 13 seed in the dance. With a scorching offense led by guard Baylor Scheierman, who can do it all, the Jackrabbits are a team that nobody wants to face. Least of all a team fledgling as much as Providence. If you are going to pick a 13 over a 4 in your bracket, look no further than this one. You can thank me later.

Best Potential Games: #2 Auburn vs. #7 USC, #1 Kansas vs. #5 Iowa

Honorable Mentions: #3 Wisconsin vs. #7 USC, #3 Wisconsin vs. #6 LSU

The Midwest features so many teams with so many questions. It makes speculating some of these matchups very difficult, because I’m honestly not sure if we’ll even get them. I am confident that both of these matchups will take place, but I would not be shocked if one of these teams is sent home packing early. In the case of Auburn-USC, anyone who enjoys offense will love watching the Tigers and Trojans do battle. These are two of the most fun offenses to watch in all of college basketball. Auburn has one of the more star-studded lineups in America, led by forwards Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler as well as guards Wendell Green Jr. and Zep Jasper. They were one of the best teams in the country all year long, but ended the season on a whimper. USC has some stars of their own, namely forwards Drew Peterson and Isaiah Mobley. They’re a team that will certainly make a deep run if they play up to their potential. This game would be a blast, and I’d honestly have to roll with the Trojans to advance to the Sweet 16. They’ve just looked better as of late, and I think they match up well enough with the Tigers to get it done.

In the case of Kansas-Iowa, what more can I say? It’s the 1 seed against my sleeper team. It would be a delight to see Iowa’s offense take on Kansas’ defense. And honestly, I think Keegan Murray can lead the Hawkeyes to victory over Bill Self’s blue blood Jayhawks.

My Pick for New Orleans: #5 Iowa

Honorable Mentions: #3 Wisconsin Badgers, #7 USC Trojans

Why not them? You get my love for this team by now, and I’m riding them the whole way. I think they have the offensive prowess and a true star in Keegan Murray that can carry them all the way to NOLA. It’ll be a tough road, starting with their first game against Richmond. But this region seems to be destined for true madness, and amidst that chaos, I like the Hawkeyes’ chances. I have Iowa over Wisconsin in an all-Big Ten Regional Final to reach an improbable Final Four.

Full Round of 64 Picks:

#1 Kansas over #16 Texas Southern: Next.

#8 San Diego State over #9 Creighton: The Bluejays fought their way all the way to the Big East title game last Saturday at MSG, but I think the Aztecs’ elite defense will carry them to victory in this one.

#5 Iowa over #12 Richmond: This is one of the more under-the-radar, super fun games of the First Round. Richmond ran the table in the A10 Tournament to get to the dance, led by super seniors and stellar shooting. Going up against an Iowa team that won the Big Ten Tournament themselves that has plenty of star power will be a tall task, however. This will be a fun watch, but I don’t see an upset here.

#13 South Dakota State over #4 Providence: The Friars were one of the better stories of the 2021-22 season, but given their recent form and nature of flying by the seat of their pants, I cannot pick them here. But it’s not just their struggles. The Jackrabbits boast 30 wins, tied for the second most in the sport, and haven’t lost since December. This team is red hot and super fun, and who’s to say that they can’t win some hearts with a huge upset here?

#6 LSU over #11 Iowa State: Good for the Cyclones to reach the tournament after last year’s nightmare season. Unfortunately, LSU is a far better team, even without a head coach.

#3 Wisconsin over #14 Colgate: For the second consecutive year, the Raiders get a shot at 3 seed who wears red. Unfortunately for them, I see the same outcome here: a close-ish loss to a team destined to make a deep run in Wisconsin.

#7 USC over #10 Miami: The Trojans have one of the highest ceilings in college basketball. When they get hot, they can be unstoppable. But I don’t think they’ll need to reach that potential to get past a Miami team that’s nothing special.

#2 Auburn over #15 Jacksonville State: The Tigers have a ton of questions coming into this tournament, but they should at least get to the next round with ease. After all, they’ve gotten experience beating up on Gamecocks already this year.

All stats taken from ESPN.