Tag: Buffalo Bills

Ranking All 32 Starting Quarterbacks in the NFL

Inspired by Netflix’s new series ‘Quarterback’, I decided to rank every starting QB in the NFL and divide them into tiers based on what I think of them heading into the upcoming 2023 season.

Cover photo taken from Sharp Football.

This week, Netflix released their highly-anticipated series Quarterback: an eight-part look into the lives and seasons of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, and Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota during the 2022 season. I have been watching the show and thoroughly enjoying it, and it got me thinking about quarterbacks as a whole. More specifically, how would I rank every QB in the league right now? So that’s what I’ve done here: all 32 starting signal callers ranked in order and divided into specific tiers that accurately reflect what I think about them and their peers as we inch closer towards the 2023 season.

Tier 1: The Best Ever

1 – Patrick Mahomes

2022 stats: 5,250 yards, 41 TD, 12 INT, 358 yards rushing, 4 rushing TD (won MVP and Super Bowl MVP)

I have been singing Patrick Mahomes’ praises since his final year at Texas Tech. While I thought he would be the best QB in the 2017 draft class, I never could have envisioned him becoming what he is today: the best quarterback to ever play this game. Now, there’s a difference between being the best ever and the greatest ever. Mahomes has a long way to go in terms of accolades and accomplishments before he can dethrone Tom Brady as the GOAT. But his talent speaks for itself, and it’s plain to see that his skillset and unique abilities on the field make him the best ever. Even if you disagree with that sentiment, you can’t disagree that he’s currently the best quarterback in football. Last year’s MVP campaign and subsequent title run put any doubt about that swiftly to bed. Even without the most explosive player in football in Tyreek Hill, Mahomes was surgical all season long and put the team on his back in the playoffs to secure his second MVP, Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP. He continues to redefine the game on a weekly basis, and we should all be so lucky to see it happening in real time.

Tier 2: The Best of the Rest

2 – Joe Burrow

2022 stats: 4,475 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 257 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD

I have held the belief that Joe Burrow is second to only Patrick Mahomes since the 2021 AFC Championship Game. I feel like most people would put Josh Allen in this spot, but I refuse to do that. I think Burrow is much more careful with the ball and has already had infinitely more playoff success, including a dominant win over Allen and the Bills in January. If a few more things went Cincinnati’s way, he might have wound up as a two-time Super Bowl champion. Regardless, Burrow has been mightily impressive since tearing his ACL in his rookie season three years ago, continuing to put up amazing numbers and wowing us with his playmaking ability. His blend of talent, determination, leadership, and swagger make it clear that he is destined for long-term success in this league.

3 – Josh Allen

2022 stats: 4,283 yards, 35 TD, 14 INT, 762 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD

Josh Allen is one of the most unique QB talents I have ever seen, which speaks for itself on a weekly basis. He has incredible athleticism and strength for his giant 6-foot-5 frame. Whether he’s launching the ball 60 yards through the air or hurdling defenders like a running back, he truly is must-see TV. I would definitely like to see him be a lot more careful with the ball, as he has been one of the most turnover-prone QBs in football in his career due to his style of play. I think an increased emphasis on his ball safety could have be very fruitful long-term for the Bills.

4 – Justin Herbert

2022 stats: 4,739 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT

The eighth wonder of the world is why Justin Herbert gets so much hate. I’ll never understand it. All he has done since entering the league in 2020 is ball out. He is off to the most prolific start to a career in NFL history in terms of his passing stats while playing for the league’s equivalent of a traveling circus. Everyone loves to blame him for the Chargers’ implosion in January’s Wild Card game where they blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars, but that’s hardly fair. I might be crazy, but I don’t think a defense allowing 31 points in just over a half of football is the quarterback’s fault. Regardless of whether you love or hate him, Herbert’s arm talent cannot be denied. He makes ridiculous throws every game with perhaps the best deep ball in the league. I can’t say I’m confident in how successful he can be while he plays for such a snake-bitten franchise, but Herbert will certainly be getting his game off as one of the league’s best QBs for years to come.

5 – Trevor Lawrence

2022 stats: 4,113 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT, 291 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD

A lot of people might think I’m nuts for putting Lawrence this high, but I’m fully sold on him. I have been for a very long time. I wasn’t going to let a bizarro rookie season littered with off-the-field drama change my mind. In his first real season, Lawrence was absolutely outstanding en route to a division title and a playoff win. He was finally able to showcase his arm talent with a proper skill group around him, and it was very impressive. Things are only going to get better next year as Calvin Ridley enters the fold. I can’t wait to see what the future has in store for the former #1 pick.

6 – Lamar Jackson

2022 stats: 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT, 764 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD (missed five games due to injury)

I hope that a couple of injury-riddled seasons haven’t made you forget about how good Lamar Jackson is. He was on a tear to start the 2022 season before a nagging leg problem derailed him and the Ravens. When he’s fully healthy, Lamar is one of the most dynamic players in the sport with his lightning-quick abilities as a ball carrier and incredible arm talent (yes, he is a great passer, don’t kid yourselves). I don’t think anyone doubts that he has what it takes to return to his unanimous MVP form from 2019. With a revamped offense and a new, improved scheme, this is the year to do it.

7 – Jalen Hurts

2022 stats: 3,701 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT, 760 rushing yards, 13 rushing TD (missed two games due to injury)

Jalen Hurts was 2022’s breakout star with his jaw-dropping play and video game numbers, leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl and being a few plays away from winning it. He was a sprinkle of Patrick Mahomes greatness away from being an MVP and a Super Bowl MVP. Alas, he’s still a consensus top QB in the NFL and got a very, very large bag from the Birds, and for good reason. Hurts is like a less explosive but more refined and stronger version of Lamar Jackson. He has the arm to make any throw, the speed to burn any defense, the strength to run over defenders, the IQ to outsmart any defense, and the determination and leadership ability to win rings. For all of those reasons, he is one of my favorite players in the league, and despite the fact that he plays for the Eagles, I’m always going to root for him to succeed. He has everything it takes to be one of the most successful QBs of this generation.

Tier 3: Show Me Again

8 – Aaron Rodgers

2022 stats: 3,695 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT

2022 was a massive step backwards for Aaron Rodgers. After winning back-to-back MVPs, he had the worst passer rating of his career (!!!) while throwing for the fewest yards since 2015 and second most interceptions in his career. Oh, and the Packers finished below .500 and missed the playoffs thanks to losing the season finale. Now, he gets a fresh start with the Jets and their fantastic young core. I think we’ll see Aaron return to form this year, but I have serious doubts about whether or not he can fully look like the Aaron of 2019, 2020, and 2021. It’s a serious problem when your off-the-field antics get more attention than your on-the-field performance.

9 – Matthew Stafford

2022 stats: 2,087 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT (missed eight games due to injury)

I’m giving Matt Stafford the benefit of the doubt here. He’s coming off a potentially career-derailing injury after playing half a season of garbage football. 2021 showed us how great he can be, but 2022 might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. I don’t know what to expect from Stafford this year on an anemic offense with only one real playmaker, but I have a feeling I won’t see anything special. He has been one of the most fun, talented QBs to watch over the last decade or so, but I think we’re seeing the last of Matt Stafford in the NFL.

10 – Deshaun Watson

2022 stats: 1,102 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT (missed 11 games due to suspension)

I am also giving the benefit of the doubt to Deshaun Watson, who I don’t even feel like talking about. After serving a suspension that was far too short, he didn’t look anything like the star QB we saw in Houston. But perhaps that’s the result of entering a new system in November after months of not practicing with a new team. I’m expecting a much better season from Watson in 2023, but I’m not sure if we’ll ever see the Texans version of him again.

11 – Kyler Murray

2022 stats: 2,368 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT, 418 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD (missed six games due to injury)

Kyler is likely to miss most, if not all of the 2023 season after suffering a torn ACL last November. For a QB with his play style, you’ve got to wonder how that is going to affect him when he returns. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. The Kyler Murray we know is a lightning-quick runner with a hell of an arm who just hasn’t been able to fully live up to his potential. His talent is undeniable, but his play on the field just hasn’t been what it can be, and his off-the-field antics aren’t great either. Despite all his talent, the Cardinals might have dug themselves a $250 million hole.

Tier 4: “Would You Rather Be Underpaid or Overrated?” – Jay-Z

12 – Jared Goff

2022 stats: 4,438 yards, 29 TD, 7 INT

Jared Goff is starting to be so underrated that he might be overrated at this point. I don’t think that’s true, and I have always liked Goff, but I think social media can chill with flaunting his stats and calling him “underrated”. Guys like Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott also have great stats and tend to shrink in big moments just like Goff does, but they don’t play for lovable teams like the Lions, so instead social media hates them. It’s no secret that Goff essentially had a career-reviving season in Detroit last year, which is more proof that he can be a truly great QB when surrounded by good talent in a good scheme. I expect to see similar numbers out of Goff this year, and hopefully the Lions see the success that has eluded them for the last… checks watch… well, forever.

13 – Geno Smith

2022 stats: 4,282 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT (won Comeback Player of the Year)

The 2022 Comeback Player of the Year was one of the best stories in football last season. After waiting years to get another shot as a starting QB, Geno Smith shocked the world en route to being one of the most prolific passers of the year and leading the Seahawks to the playoffs in their first year of a supposed rebuild. He flashed amazing arm talent and pinpoint accuracy all season long and was rewarded with a massive, well-deserved contract extension. With the offense getting a huge boost this offseason through free agency and the draft, I expect Geno to continue putting up big numbers. I think he’ll be in people’s top 10 lists by January.

14 – Kirk Cousins

2022 stats: 4,547 yards, 29 TD, 14 INT

The narratives surrounding Kirk Cousins have been beaten into the ground at this point, so I’ll keep this brief. Kirk is a much better QB than most people realize. I know a lot of his stats are empty. I know he sucks after the sun goes down (most of the time). I know he has limited playoff success. But he’s as good as you can ask for in this league. I have defended him for years and years, and I hope the Quarterback series gave people the appreciation for him that I have. I’d welcome him back to DC in a heartbeat.

15 – Tua Tagovailoa

2022 stats: 3,548 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT (missed four games due to injury)

Last season was the first time we saw what Tua was capable of when he’s surrounded by the talent and scheme that lets him cook. He might have gotten a lot of help via YAC from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he led the league in TD% and passer rating (105.5) all while being one of the most accurate QBs in football. The concussion problems are a very scary concern, but if Tua stays upright with the talent he has around him, he’ll be perfectly fine to put up big numbers. I just question whether or not he has what it takes to take the Dolphins to where they want to be.

16 – Dak Prescott

2022 stats: 2,860 yards, 23 TD, 15 INT (missed five games due to injury)

Dak has been perfectly average, if not above average for his entire career. But last season was not a good look for him. He led the league in interceptions while having the second worst passer rating of his career. He had a fantastic 2021, so perhaps we can place some blame on his injury last year, but I need to see it to believe it this season with Dak. It feels like the window is closing rapidly in Dallas, and it’ll close even quicker if he doesn’t return to form.

Tier 5: Make or Break Year

17 – Russell Wilson

2022 stats: 3,524 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT, 277 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD (missed two games due to injury)

Last year was the worst season of Russell Wilson’s career by any and every metric. It was an unmitigated disaster from start to finish that was widely publicized and criticized. But I think a lot of that has to do with how generally awful the Broncos were on offense under Nathaniel Hackett. Russ has a real chance to get back on track under Sean Payton. I don’t know how much he has left in the tank, but I know for a fact that his 2023 can’t go any worse than 2022 can.

18 – Derek Carr

2022 stats: 3,522 yards, 24 TD, 14 INT (missed two games due to being shut down by LVR)

It’s hard to make heads or tails of Derek Carr these days. Yes, he puts up good numbers, but it hasn’t translated to wins much lately. Yes, he can make any throw in the world, but he forgets how to do so inside the 10-yard line. Yes, he gets a fresh start in New Orleans, but it’s under an abysmal coaching staff. I know he still has plenty of talent left in the tank, but I believe things can get ugly for Derek Carr very soon.

Tier 6: So Much Potential

19 – Justin Fields

2022 stats: 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 11 INT, 1,143 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD (missed two games due to injury)

Justin Fields is perhaps the most polarizing QB in football right now. Everyone either thinks he’s the next Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts or thinks he’s the worst QB in the league. There’s no in between. My love for Justin obviously goes back to his college days, so it’s clear where I stand. It took everything I had to not place him higher on this list. But he clearly needs to show more development as a passer. I do think a lot of his faults in that regard lie with the scheme and complete lack of talent around him. Both of those will improve this year, so hopefully he makes a huge leap with his arm. His rushing talents need no explanation, as he led all QBs in rushing yards and finished seventh in the league among all rushers, becoming just the third QB to ever rush for 1,000 yards in a season. He might just be the fastest player in football with extremely underrated strength. If he can get his act together as a passer, Justin will take the league by storm. I’m hoping and praying that it happens.

20 – Brock Purdy

2022 stats: 1,374 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT (five games as starter)

I wasn’t really sure who to put as the 49ers QB in this list, but I assume that the QB1 job currently belongs to Brock Purdy after his efforts last season. He might not start in Week 1, and I personally feel like Trey Lance is the better option, but he gets my nod here. Purdy was one of the best stories in football last year, going from being Mr. Irrelevant to leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game before an unfortunate elbow injury ended his season. Regardless of whether or not he’ll be ready to play or start for the Niners in September, he deserves our respect. He was a perfect fit in their offense with fantastic accuracy and playmaking ability, all while keeping the ball safe. If he does end up being the QB of the future in San Francisco, I think he has what it takes to lead them to greatness.

21 – Daniel Jones

2022 stats: 3,205 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT, 708 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD (missed one game due to rest)

I think I’m putting Danny Dimes a tad low on this list considering the great year he had in 2022. But I’m just not as moved as everyone else is. I think he will be a solid starting QB for the Giants for the next few years. But there isn’t a lot about 15 passing touchdowns in 16 games that makes me fawn. He’s a solid passer with a decent arm and fantastic athletic ability that honestly almost makes up for his shortcomings as a passer. The potential is there, but he’ll never be anything special in my eyes.

Tier 7: Panera Bread

22 – Jimmy Garoppolo

2022 stats: 2,437 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT (missed six games due to injury/being backup)

I’ve been a supporter of Jimmy G for a very long time. I think he’s a perfectly fine QB that will always produce and be successful when put in the right spot. San Francisco was that right spot for a while. I don’t know if Las Vegas will be. But he has everything he needs to be successful, including one of the best WRs and RBs in football and his old buddy as his head coach. He still won’t blow anyone away, but all the ingredients are there. We’ll see what this new era of Jimmy looks like.

23 – Ryan Tannehill

2022 stats: 2,536 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT (missed five games due to injury)

For what it’s worth, Ryan Tannehill was having a decent year in 2022 for about 10 weeks before the wheels completely fell off. Now, he’s a 35-year old coming off a tough injury on a team with not a lot of offensive talent. With the Titans spending a second round pick on a QB in Will Levis, it’s easy to see that Tannehill is nearing the end of the road.

24 – Mac Jones

2022 stats: 2,997 yards, 14 TD, 11 INT (missed three games due to injury)

This is a huge year for Macaroni. The Patriots are more than ready to move on from him if he doesn’t produce. Last season was a bit of a disaster that included a nagging ankle problem and a benching in favor of Bailey Zappe, who New England fans often chanted for when Jones struggled. While I had high hopes for Macaroni when he entered the league, it’s clear that he’s not exactly being put in a position to succeed. He hasn’t shown many flashes of talent either. If it doesn’t happen this season, we won’t be hearing his name much anymore.

25 – Baker Mayfield

2022 stats: 2,163 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT (12 games as starter for CAR/LAR)

I wanted to put Baker much, much lower on this list. It’s a real possibility that he is the worst starting QB in football. It just didn’t feel right putting him below guys who are either very inexperienced or have never played a snap in the NFL. Still, my opinions on Mayfield have been clear for years now. I don’t like him as a person, I don’t like him as a player, and I think his time in the NFL is running out. I would not be remotely shocked if he loses the starting job before Thanksgiving.

Tier 8: New Kids on the Block

26 – Kenny Pickett

2022 stats: 2,404 yards, 7 TD, 9 INT, 237 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD (13 games as starter)

Look, I like Kenneth Pickett. I think he’s a great story and I find it very easy to root for him. But I just don’t know if he can be a franchise guy. It doesn’t help that the Steelers offense isn’t exactly budding with talent, but they are improving. I think Pickett can make a leap in his sophomore campaign, but to me, his ceiling is Tier 4 or 5.

27 – Jordan Love

2022 stats: 195 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (appeared in four games)

There might not be a QB in this tier that I have higher hopes for than Jordan Love. He has had three years to sit and learn under Aaron Rodgers and now finally gets his shot to lead the Packers. I think he has all the talent in the world to lead them to success. With great arm talent and mobility, he has the perfect skillset to succeed in today’s NFL. He has shown flashes of it in his few appearances over the last two years. Green Bay still has the talent around him that can allow him to thrive, and I think he’ll do just that. I expect big things out of him in 2023.

28 – Bryce Young

2022 stats: N/A

The 2023 #1 pick out of Alabama is one of the most unique QB prospects in recent memory. The concerns about his size are valid, but he has some of the best playmaking ability that we’ve seen in a long time. He has immense talent that I think can translate well to the NFL, and the Panthers are putting themselves in a position such that he can succeed early and often. I’m looking forward to watching his development this season.

29 – CJ Stroud

2022 stats: N/A

CJ was probably the best all-around passing prospect in April’s draft, and the Texans were very happy to snag him at #2 overall. He’s a prototypical pocket passer with the arm and accuracy to make any throw and an extremely underrated pocket presence. His mobility is also an under-looked part of his skillset and will only get better in the NFL. I can’t wait to see what he can do in Houston as they continue their rebuild.

30 – Anthony Richardson

2022 stats: N/A

Richardson was the most polarizing QB prospect in this year’s draft. He has jaw-dropping raw talent as both a passer and a runner, but it remains to be seen if those skills can be refined and translated into success in the NFL. I believe in the Colts organization and their coaching staff as well as the talent on that offense, so I think Richardson can see some early success in the pros. But it’s clear to everyone that this is a project, and one with an extremely high upside.

31 – Sam Howell

2022 stats: 169 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (one game as starter)

Our fanbase is absolutely head over heels for Sam Howell because he was once heralded as the best QB prospect in college football (over two years ago) and beat the Cowboys in his lone NFL start with one or two highlight plays. Perhaps we should temper our expectations a bit. I think Sam is immensely talented and is in a great position to do good things in our offense. Everything is right in front of him to seize this opportunity and be a solid NFL starting QB. But we really need to pump the brakes with this “franchise QB” stuff. I have to see it to believe it. Maybe I’m just a pessimist. But when it comes to this franchise, can you blame me?

32 – Desmond Ridder

2022 stats: 708 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (four games as starter)

To put it nicely, I have no faith in Desmond Ridder as an NFL starter. He was an average passer and runner at Cincinnati, and it’s safe to say that he’s below average in both categories at the professional level. He’s still very inexperienced, but I just don’t see a world where he is Atlanta’s quarterback of the future. He simply lacks the talent to be a successful QB in this league.

All stats taken from Pro Football Reference.

My 2023 Mock Draft

The 2023 NFL Draft is upon us with a plethora of remarkably talented players ready to hear their names called. Here’s my one and only Mock Draft.

Cover photo taken from NBC Sports.

The NFL offseason’s Christmas is finally upon us. Tonight, 31 young men will have their dreams come true as their names are called and they become professional football players. The first round of the NFL Draft is truly a magical night that everyone in football lives for. One of the best parts of the Draft is how unpredictable it is, yet we spend all offseason debating mock drafts and prospect rankings. So, for the second consecutive year, I am throwing out my own mock. This will be wildly wrong (which is part of the fun), but this is how I think each and every team picking tonight will go about their selections.

1 – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The Panthers have been fixated on Bryce Young since they traded up to the #1 spot back on March 10th. This is clearly the guy they made the move for, and I don’t blame them whatsoever. I think Young is the best player in this class, and it might not be particularly close. While I understand the concerns about his size, his play speaks for itself. He had an unbelievable two year run at Alabama, and anything he lacks in his physical appearance is made up for by his immense poise and playmaking ability. Some of the things he did in Tuscaloosa made my eyeballs fall out of my head. While C.J. Stroud might be the better all around QB prospect on paper, Bryce Young is certainly the better talent, and I have been buying into his hype for a very long time. Clearly Carolina has as well. They may have lost their WR1, but they get the star QB that they’ve desired for years and continue their rebuild with one of the most exciting prospects in recent memory.

2 – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Texans are going to pass on a QB (likely C.J. Stroud) with this pick and opt to go with an edge rusher. While I understand the principle of that with DeMeco Ryans looking for a star pass rusher to build around, I think it’s a pretty ludicrous move. Houston has a golden opportunity to pair Stroud with a top WR prospect with the 12th overall selection, including but not limited to his college teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I would go that route 100 times out of 100. But the Texans are not going to. Still, they’re getting a fantastic prospect in Tyree Wilson, who has risen up draft boards all offseason long, and for good reason. He’s a physical freak of nature coming off the edge with all of the tools to be a premier pass rusher in this league. His athleticism and physical tools speak for themselves, and I think he can flourish under the tutelage of someone like DeMeco Ryans in this system. Again, it’s not the pick I’d make, but it appears that this is all but written in stone.

3 – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Will Anderson is this year’s Kayvon Thibodeaux. Both of them were the consensus top overall player in their class for a while, then got reduced to being the top edge rusher in their class before being supplanted by an “athletic freak” who gets taken before them. Tyree Wilson is getting all the hype in the world, and for good reason, but please don’t forget about this guy. Anderson was the top edge rusher in college football for two years in a row and had people seriously considering giving him the Heisman. In fact, I think he should have won the award back in 2021. That’s how dominant he is off the edge. He just might be the best player in this class, so the Cardinals should consider this as highway robbery at 3. They have a lot of holes to fill, and with Kyler Murray’s injury likely sidelining him for the season, I think they will be picking first overall next year. Locking up a franchise pass rusher is a great way to start a rebuild, and it doesn’t get much better than this.

4 – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

The Colts should be thanking their lucky stars that the Texans are seemingly passing on a quarterback. To have C.J. Stroud fall to them without having to make any trades or lose any additional assets is by far the best-case scenario. This is a team that has been trying to find its franchise QB since Andrew Luck retired, and they get to snag arguably the best overall QB prospect in the draft. Stroud has everything he needs to be a great signal caller in the NFL; his size, arm, poise, pocket awareness, and playmaking ability took a massive leap last year, and I think that he’ll only get better as he continues to develop as a pro. The Colts also have some solid weapons to surround him, which is more than Houston can say. This is probably the best fit for C.J., and I hope for his sake that this is where he ends up going.

5 – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

The Seahawks could go a lot of different ways with this pick, including trading down, which I would not be opposed to. But, it makes perfect sense to stay put and grab a top prospect, especially to help bolster a defense that had some very bad moments last year. I think snagging perhaps the top corner in the draft is a great move to pair him alongside Tariq Woolen and help build a potential Legion of Boom 2.0. Witherspoon is a physical ballhawk that has shot up the drat boards, and for good reason. He is very physical and versatile in the defensive backfield, and I think he can be a great fit in Seattle with the style of defense that they play.

6 – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

For a solid portion of this draft process, many people held the belief that Jalen Carter was the best player in this class. Some extraneous factors have seemingly hurt his stock, but there is no denying that he is one of the best prospects on the board that any team should feel delighted to add to their roster. In this case, the Lions, who desperately need help across the board on defense, but especially on the interior, scoop him up courtesy of their pick from the Rams in the Matthew Stafford trade to instantly create one of the best young defensive fronts in the NFL. The unit will still need some more help, but this is the best-case scenario at 6 for Detroit.

7 – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

There are two facts to keep in mind here. The first is that the Raiders need a QB after letting go of Derek Carr. The second is that the Raiders are arguably the single worst drafting organization in the entire league. So it feels almost inevitable that they take a massive gamble on a QB prospect with a ton of questions that half of evaluators see as a total bust. I personally have zero faith in Will Levis. I would love to be proven wrong, but I have seen him play way too poorly at Kentucky to fall for any “physical traits” or “intangibles”. I believe what my eyes tell me, and my eyes do not like him at all. Placing Levis in an offense with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams could bring out the best in him, but it’s just not the right move for the Raiders. Which is why I can 100% see them making it.

8 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

I really, REALLY do not think the Falcons should take a QB at 8. This team has so many holes that they could trigger someone’s trypophobia, and taking a QB won’t fix any of them. If they’re smart, they’ll take a tackle or an edge rusher to be the anchor of their rebuild and wait for 2024, where they could be picking first overall, to take their QB of the future. But the Falcons are the antithesis of smart, especially when it comes to drafting, so I say they are going to pick a QB, and it’s the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the entire draft. Anthony Richardson has been one of the more polarizing prospects in recent memory with several people being enthralled by his raw talent and several others seeing him as a total bust. I’ve been toeing the line for a while, and I can’t say that I love him as a prospect. I think it’s a massive gamble for any team to pick him, especially if that team has absolutely nothing going for them like the Falcons. But if he pans out, then they can say that they proved everyone wrong while snagging their franchise QB.

9 – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

I loved the Bears moving down to 9. They got plenty of extra draft capital and finally have their WR1 in D.J. Moore from Carolina. At 9, they sit in a golden position to grab a franchise left tackle to protect Justin Fields, who got absolutely hammered all year by pass rushers in 2022. I think Skoronski and Paris Johnson Jr. are pretty much tied atop the board at their position, but I can see Chicago opting to pick the hometown kid who is used to playing in their conditions. Skoronski is an absolute unit at 6’4″ 315 and will protect Fields for years to come.

10 – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

It’s not often that a team makes the Super Bowl and picks in the top 10, but the Eagles are doing just that courtesy of a trade with the Saints last year. This roster is one of the best in the league with the only real “holes” being at running back and linebacker, but I don’t think the Birds are going to fill those holes with this pick. There are virtually no prospects at those positions that will go this high. It makes more sense to pick someone to bolster an already solid group in Philly, such as a receiver or a corner, considering how deep those positions are in this draft. But I think the Eagles are going to continue plucking players out of Athens and add an athletic freak to their developing front seven. Last year, they took Jordan Davis to fill the middle and Nakobe Dean to develop into a field general behind him. Adding their old teammate Nolan Smith to haunt QBs off the edge just feels right. Smith is one of the more dynamic defenders in the draft with crazy speed and athleticism for an edge rusher. If he and his old Georgia teammates develop into stars, Philadelphia could boast one of the best defensive cores that this league has seen in a long time.

11 – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Simply put, the Titans are a mess. No one knows what is going on in Tennessee. We have no idea who will be lining up under center in the fall and it feels like Derrick Henry won’t be behind whoever that may be. Maybe they use Henry in a trade to move up or down in the first round and continue to build draft capital or find their next star QB. I’m not entirely opposed to that idea, but I think it makes logical sense to stay put and grab a franchise left tackle to help rebuild an offensive line that was simply embarrassing last year. As I said before, Paris Johnson Jr. is right at the top of his position group in this draft, and will be an immediate impact guy for a team that desperately needs their Taylor Lewan replacement to protect Malik Willis/Ryan Tannehill and help out Derrick Henry… maybe.

12 – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Houston is sitting pretty with two top 12 picks courtesy of the Browns being the incompetent organization they are. After securing their franchise edge rusher instead of grabbing a top QB, it makes sense for them to take a top offensive weapon to help out whichever signal caller they take in 2024. While I don’t think Jordan Addison is the top WR in this class, I can certainly see him being the first one off the board. A lot of folks have him as WR1 due to his lightning quick play and route-running. Moreover, Addison has a repertoire with USC QB Caleb Williams, who the Texans will surely be vying for in next year’s draft, so this feels like a forward-thinking move that prepares them for the future. Again, this isn’t the direction I’d go in, but I don’t hate it for Houston.

13 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

I could talk about Jaxon Smith-Njigba for hours. Days even. Not only do I believe that he’s by far the best WR in this class, I think he might be the best player in the class. A hamstring injury suffered on just his second catch of the 2022 season (with me in attendance, of course) derailed what could have been a legendary campaign after an otherworldly year in 2021. Considering that we haven’t really seen JSN play since the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2022, a lot of people have forgotten about how truly special this kid is. Just to put this in perspective, every single player who shared the WR room with him at Ohio State said that he is the best receiver they’ve ever seen. That’s a room that includes guys like Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, and Marvin Harrison Jr. And they’re probably right in terms of WRs at the college level. JSN is an incredibly polished route runner with surefire hands and a catch radius that exceeds his build accompanied by a surprising burst after the catch. He will be any QB’s best friend, especially if that QB is entering a starting role and needs all the help he can get. And that makes the Packers the single best fit for him. Aaron Rodgers is finally gone and the Jordan Love era has officially begun. I have extremely high hopes for him, and this is a pick that not only helps him out, but bolsters the entire offense. All of a sudden, Green Bay will have one of the best young WR groups in the league with JSN alongside Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. I’m not exaggerating when I say that this pick could be the difference between the Packers making or missing the playoffs. Regardless of that, this is the only pick they can make, and if they pass on JSN, they should consider it to be a catastrophic failure.

14 – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

The Patriots can go a lot of different ways here. The roster badly needs help in a lot of different spots, especially on the offensive side. I don’t see Bill Belichick opting for a receiver with the top options off the board, and this feels too high for them to reach for a running back. So the most logical play is to snag a great edge rusher to help a front seven that needs a boost. Myles Murphy is an experienced player with the athleticism that is severely lacking in New England’s defensive line. I see this is a very good value pick for the Patriots to immediately fill a position of need.

15 – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

The Jets finally acquired Aaron Rodgers and now sit in a position where they can go one of two ways. They can grab a pass-catcher to replace Elijah Moore and go alongside Garrett Wilson to help boost the offense. Or, they can add a key piece to a wonky offensive line that has had a lot of injury woes at the tackle position. With a 39 year old QB entering the fray and the top two WR prospects off the board, the latter makes a lot more sense. They need to protect Rodgers at all costs, and taking the pro-ready Wright is a great way to do that. His 6’5″ 330 frame makes him an absolute rock on the edge, and if Mekhi Becton figures it out, the Jets could have one of the best young tackle duos in the league protecting a veteran QB that desperately needs to stay upright.

16 – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

We are in a weird spot. When are we not in a weird spot? There has been speculation about trading back and acquiring some draft capital to prepare for the 2024 draft and potentially bringing Caleb Williams home to DC. While I don’t hate that idea, I think I would rather stay put and lock up a top prospect at one of two major positions of need: tackle or corner. At this spot with the board shaping up the way it is, I think corner is the right move, and I think Christian Gonzalez is a steal at 16. Many people have him as CB1, and it’s easy to see why. He’s incredibly long with fantastic playmaking ability and blazing speed. He will instantly fill a massive gap as an outside corner to help Kendall Fuller as he operates in the slot and help improve the secondary in a major way.

17 – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The Steelers like taking hometown kids. The Steelers like defense. The Steelers don’t have a much better option at 17 than Joey Porter Jr. Not only did his father play for Pittsburgh, but Porter Jr. is a Penn State prospect who will instantly fit in with the Steelers’ defensive philosophy of beating offenses up. He’s very long and has a ton of range and versatility with the playmaking ability that this secondary has lacked for years now. I wouldn’t hate seeing the Steelers invest in the offensive line, but this feels like the best value pick and by far the best fit.

18 – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

As I said with their first pick, the Lions need all the help hey can get on defense. After shoring up the interior with Jalen Carter, they sit at 18 in a great spot to help the defensive backfield and replace the recently-traded Jeff Okudah. Deonte Banks is a great prospect that has very quickly risen up draft boards due to his size and speed. Adding him to a secondary that has been rebuilt with newcomers like Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner Johnson instantly helps Detroit’s defense become a much stronger unit than they were a year ago, greatly improving their playoff chances.

19 – Brian Branch, S, Alabama

The Buccaneers have seemingly fallen off a cliff. After the departure of Tom Brady, the roster suddenly has tons of holes to address. They have a myriad of options in this spot, and I had a hard time deciding which direction to go in. I decided to have them just pick the best player available, since it addresses a position of need. Brian Branch is a fantastic player in the defensive backfield with the athleticism and smarts to make plays all over the field. He would be a tremendous complement to Antoine Winfield Jr. and help out a Tampa secondary that got gashed all season last year.

20 – O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida

After filling their first position of need at 5 with a corner, it makes sense for the Seahawks to help out their offensive interior and snag perhaps the best guard in the draft. Torrence is a huge, physical blocker at 6’5″ 330 with a ton of raw power that Seattle could use in a big way. Adding him to a ragtag offensive line will instantly help both the passing and running games.

21 – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

This may feel like a very strange pick, but I think it’s a great one for the Chargers. A lot of people would like to see them take a WR, and I think that’s a very logical way to go with some solid options on the board. But adding the best pass-catching tight end in the draft instantly adds another foil to this very interesting offense. Kincaid catches everything that comes his way and has very good burst and route running for someone at his position. This is just as good as picking a WR and gives a potentially lethal weapon to Justin Herbert to go alongside Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen.

22 – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Baltimore still has a lot of questions to answer this offseason, particularly regarding some guy named Lamar Jackson. They won’t have those questions answered by draft night, but they sit in an interesting spot to fill one of several needs. I can see them taking any number of players at several positions such as receiver, corner, or safety. With the recent acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr., I think their best route is actually to opt for a pass rusher. For all intents and purposes, this is a steal for the Ravens. Van Ness is one of the more intriguing edge rushers in the draft with his incredible technique and motor. In Baltimore, he can develop into a premiere pass-rusher and create a vaunted rushing group that features Odafe Oweh and Roquan Smith.

23 – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

Like their fellow purple and gold team picking before them, the Vikings have a lot of options at 23. I’ve heard plenty of rumors about a potential move up involving Dalvin Cook with their sights on a corner, receiver, or even a QB. I wouldn’t be opposed to that whatsoever, but it’s difficult to project a trade of that magnitude. So, I’ll keep Minnesota at 23 and give them a fantastic talent to help their defensive interior and pass rush as a whole. Kancey is a remarkably athletic player with a relentless pass-rushing motor who will immediately boost a defensive line that severely lacks in that department. The Vikes will still have plenty of work to do to help out the rest of the defense, but this is a great place to start.

24 – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

The Jaguars seem to be leaning towards a defensive back in this spot. With most of the top offensive line prospects off the board by this point, I think that makes a ton of sense. But, with most of the best corners also off the board, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the Jags will scoop up. I think Emmanuel Forbes is a good fit for them with his long frame and innate playmaking ability. His size is definitely a concern at a mere 180 pounds, but he makes up for it with his ballhawking nature. I think he’d provide a nice presence to Jacksonville’s developing secondary.

25 – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

The Giants need a receiver worse than any other team in the league. With some of the top prospects off the board, they still have some interesting options at 25. I really like the fit of Quentin Johnston in their offense with his size and speed. There are plenty of concerns with his tape, which has led to his stock completely tanking since the end of the college football season, but his talent is undeniable. In New York, he won’t have to be a WR1 and can instead be a high-level threat on the outside as a foil to Darius Slayton. I can see him thriving in that role.

26 – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

The way I see it, the Cowboys can go three ways here. The first is making the flashy “Cowboys” pick, which is Bijan Robinson. The second is making the more solid “Cowboys” pick that we’ve come to expect in recent years, which would be an offensive or defensive lineman. The third is the seemingly logical pick, which would be a defensive back. I’m rocking with the third option, but that puts Dallas in a similar position as the Jaguars at 24. They have some options, but none of them are as good as they’d like. However, I think Cam Smith is a very good fit for this defense. He’s a tremendous playmaker with a great feel for anticipating throws coming his way, and pairing him with Trevon Diggs could make for perhaps the best ballhawking corner duo in the league.

27 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

We all know that Bijan Robinson is a top ten talent in this class. He’s one of the best running back prospects in recent years with his otherworldly athleticism and speed. He’s like a stronger Saquon Barkley when he came out of Penn State. His athletic ability and physical gifts make him one of the most coveted prospects on the board. The problem is that he doesn’t seem to fit anywhere until we get to the late first round. Maybe a team like Atlanta, Philadelphia, or New England can scoop him up, but it just wouldn’t make sense to me. It certainly makes sense at 27 for the Bills. They would love to add a star RB to the fold to help out Josh Allen and prevent him from running around as much as he does. Creating a three-headed monster of Allen, Robinson, and Stefon Diggs could provide this offense with the boost they need to get over the hump that has held them back in the postseason for so many years now. It almost feels to good to be true with the 27th overall selection.

28 – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

This has felt telegraphed for a while now. It really feels like the only option here for Cincinnati. There aren’t any better offensive line or defensive back prospects on the board, and they get a huge lift at a position that really needs one. Mayer is a huge target that will eat up the middle of the field with his great hands while also clearing up outside lines as a fantastic run blocker on the edge. He is the best all-around tight end in this draft and seemingly a perfect fit in the Bengals offense, giving Joe Burrow another pass-catching threat while helping out the run game.

29 – Steve Avila, OG, TCU

The Saints entered this offseason with some of the worst draft capital in the league, but were able to snag a first from Denver (by way of Miami and San Francisco) when Sean Payton agreed to coach the Broncos. That works out great for them as they desperately need some help on the offensive interior to rebuild the line and protect their new QB Derek Carr. There are a lot of interesting guards in this draft, but I think Steve Avila is the best fit for New Orleans, as he can come in and be an impact starter on day one.

30 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

As I said above, the Eagles would like to leave this draft with a running back, but taking Bijan Robinson at 10 doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Instead, sitting back and waiting on Jahmyr Gibbs to fall to them at 30 is one of the best things they can ask for. Gibbs might not be the talent that Robinson is, but he is still incredibly dynamic with his lightning-quick speed and fantastic pass-catching ability. Pairing him up with Miles Sanders would make for a very intriguing RB duo in this already multi-faceted offense. He can act as a psuedo Alvin Kamara for the Birds on passing downs while providing a spark in the run game, which I think can make the offense even scarier. As if they need to be scarier than they already are.

31 – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

The Super Bowl champs are in a pretty good spot with their roster, but there are two positions that I think need some help: receiver and edge rusher. While it might make more sense to opt for the latter here, I think the Chiefs are going to put their faith in George Karlaftis, who they spent a first rounder on just last year. So, they opt to take the best WR on the board who far too many people are sleeping on. Zay Flowers is a slick and twitchy slot receiver who will instantly fill the void left behind by Juju Smith-Schuster’s departure. In fact, he’ll improve that position from last year. He’s undersized, but we’ve seen Kansas City make monsters out of smaller receivers before by utilizing their strengths, especially when it comes to speed. Flowers is certainly not lacking in that department.

Divisional Round Picks

Only eight teams remain as we head into an absolutely stacked weekend. Here are my picks to make next week’s Championship games.

Cover photo taken from Sportcasting.

Last Week: 4-2

Season Total: 177-97-2

Chiefs 27-20 Jaguars

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NBC

In analyzing and/or picking this game, there are really only two statistics to consider. The first of which is that Andy Reid is the greatest head coach off a bye in the history of the sport. He boasts a record of 27-4 following an off week, including a perfect 3-0 record in the AFC playoffs with the Chiefs (1-1 in Super Bowls). The second of which is that both the Chiefs and every other 1 seed ever largely struggle as large favorites in the Divisional Round. 1 seeds have gone 13-25-1 ATS in this round in the last 20 years, and 8-22-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less. Some books have this spread to 8.5 or 9. So, you can bank on the Chiefs winning this game, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you or Vegas think. Moreover, we pretty much know what we’re going to get out of these teams. The Jaguars are an amazing story and are good enough to give any team in the AFC fits. Their offense is certainly capable of putting up both yards and points on an underwhelming, continuously underperforming Chiefs defense, especially through the air with Trevor Lawrence slinging it all over the yard. But they don’t have what it takes to go to Arrowhead and beat Kansas City off a bye, especially considering how dominant the Chiefs have been and how incredible Patrick Mahomes has been playing this season. The MVP-to-be enters this game after putting up the most offensive yards in a season in the history of the league. Everyone on offense is getting involved, and it all starts with the greatness of #15. After seeing how Jacksonville’s pass defense has fared in recent games, I don’t trust them to limit Mahomes in any capacity. Jacksonville might be able to keep up for a while, but this is simply too tall of a task for a young team that has overachieved this season.

Eagles 24-20 Giants

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, FOX

If last week’s divisional contests (with the exception of the last 20 or so minutes of the Seahawks-49ers game) were any indication, we’re in for a close game on Saturday night. Another reason to support that is what I said above about how 1 seeds perform ATS in the Divisional Round. Combine that with the uncertainty around Jalen Hurts’ shoulder and the general feistiness of the Giants, and you have the makings of a physical divisional bloodbath. Both of these defenses will show up and show out on the big stage. In my opinion, this game comes down to whichever offense can execute better in key moments down the stretch. New York’s offense looked surgical from start to finish last week in Minnesota, but that was against one of the league’s worst defenses. On a cold night against a fantastic Philly defense, they will have a tougher time. While there are questions around Hurts and his injury, I think he has had more than enough time off to heal and get ready for this game. If the Birds offensive line can keep him upright and get enough push on the Eagles’ patented run plays, then they could win this game comfortably. It will be tough against a stout Giants front, but I like Philly in that matchup. It will take a few key plays late from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense, but they will be the ones celebrating by the end of the night en route to the title game.

Bills 30-27 Bengals

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, CBS

This is easily my most anticipated matchup of this round, if not this entire season, and I think it’ll easily be the best game of the weekend. That’s exactly what I said when these teams met three weeks ago. I’m just as excited now as I was then, and I can’t wait to see them play a full playoff game against one another. However, my pick is different this time, and it’s hard to explain. I still think the Bengals are the better team, and I still think they’re the best team in the league. I think people who believe they’re somehow worse because they struggled in primetime against a division rival are vastly misguided. I think Joe Burrow is better than Josh Allen. I think Ja’Marr Chase might be better than Stefon Diggs. The Bengals can actually run the ball with a good backfield whereas the Bills can’t run the ball with anyone but their QB. And at this point, Cincinnati might have a better defense. On top of everything, Joe Burrow might be the best QB as an underdog in the league right now, and he has proven time and time again that he can go on the road and win these huge games against great teams. So why am I switching up now and picking Buffalo? The biggest reason is the injuries to Cincinnati’s offensive line. They will be without their three best linemen after they had spent all regular season healthy. Last week, Burrow was under duress quite a lot against a pass rush that’s only slightly better than the ones the Bills possess. Again, Burrow has proven that he can overcome this, but the Bengals have also proven that this can be their downfall in a big spot. But more than anything, the Bills just feel like they’re in the midst of a special run. They are playing inspired and the entire city of Buffalo is rallying behind them. They did not play a sharp game last week, but I think they’ll look much better on Sunday afternoon. If Josh Allen plays clean, mistake-free football (which I don’t feel comfortable with expecting), then the Bills have the offensive capability to win this game comfortably. All they have to do is get after Joe Burrow. If he has enough time to throw, he will make them pay. I just don’t see that being possible without his two starting tackles and best interior lineman. He has done it before, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads Cincy to another improbable victory. But I can’t bank on that right now.

49ers 31-20 Cowboys

Sunday, 6:30 PM, FOX

This is the big brand game of the weekend, and rightfully so. Cowboys-49ers in the playoffs is as classic as it gets and always seems to deliver. It certainly did last year in a thrilling Wild Card game in Dallas that ended on one of the most mind-boggling late-game plays and execution sequences in recent memory that sent the Cowboys home early and propelled the Niners to a near-Super Bowl run. This game feels quite different with San Francisco being the hottest team in the league, having won their last 11 games and barely breaking a sweat despite having to turn to Brock Purdy. The rookie continues to ball out with perhaps the best weapons in the league and easily the best defense in football behind him. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were overlooked by quite a lot of people, myself included, before going to Tampa and smacking the Bucs last Monday. They’re the underdogs in this game, but you can guarantee that they won’t go down without a fight. However, I feel like Monday night’s performance is once again swinging the pendulum of our perception of the Cowboys completely in the other direction. All of a sudden, people think they’re the best team in the NFC that can go on the road to play perhaps the best team in the league and win. I think we need to pump the brakes there. I think Dallas might be the most overmatched team in this entire round. They looked great against a Buccaneers team that we all knew was awful. How are they going to look against the 49ers? Will Dak Prescott be able to replicate his performance from last week against the best defense in the league? I say no. Will Dallas’ own defense be able to slow down San Francisco’s offense, which no one else has been able to do? I say no again. I think Purdy and company will have their way with the Cowboys’ susceptible defense, and Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the defense will lock up Dak and the Dallas offense for the most part en route to another fairly easy win for the Niners for them to get back to the conference title game.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Wild Card Weekend Picks

The playoffs are upon us with six great games on tap in a stacked schedule that spans the whole weekend. Here’s some spoilers on how it’ll play out.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 12-4

Season Total: 173-95-2

49ers 24-13 Seahawks

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks come into this game as big underdogs after sneaking into the playoffs following the final events of the regular season. Even in a divisional playoff game, which are always so close, nobody is giving Seattle a chance. That’s a perfectly fair assessment if you ask me. Not only are they arguably the worst team in the entire postseason field, but they’re going on the road to play the hottest and perhaps the best team in the entire NFL. San Francisco has been a freight train ever since the midway point of the season, and they haven’t blinked en route to a season sweep of the team they face on Saturday. While some may say that they’re bound to cool off, I assure you that it won’t happen in this game. I don’t even see them slowing down. Their defense is the best in the league and their offense is firing on all cylinders. With Deebo Samuel back in the fold, it’s only going to be harder to stop them on that side of the ball. I love the Seahawks offense and their young pieces on defense, but I just think they’re going to be overwhelmed in what is Geno Smith’s first playoff game. Unless their corners can step up and make plays to force Brock Purdy into some turnovers, the Seahawks are going to have a long afternoon in the Bay. With Tariq Woolen dealing with an ankle problem, that seems like it’ll be the likely outcome.

Jaguars 23-20 Chargers

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NBC

It’s both very rare and extremely cool to see a playoff matchup between two of the young elite QBs that will likely run this league for years to come so early in their careers. I have no doubt that Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Herbert will live up to the hype in their respective playoff debuts. Both the Jaguars and the Chargers carry some winning momentum into this game, going a combined 9-1 in their last five games (with the Chargers’ loss coming in a game where they “rested” starters), and Jacksonville will be electric once again just one week after hosting the division-winning game against the Titans. But the news isn’t entirely good on both sides. Los Angeles’ star WR Mike Williams will miss this game, and likely the entire postseason if they were to move on, with a back problem that emerged while he was playing in the Chargers’ meaningless game last week in Denver. That will be a huge detriment to their offense, which we saw struggle mightily when not at full strength in the regular season. But Herbert will still have Keenan Allen on the outside and Austin Ekeler behind him, so the Bolts will still be able to do damage on offense. I just don’t know if it will be enough to overcome Jacksonville on the road. As I said earlier this week, the Jags essentially got their playoff jitters out of the way last week in a de facto play-in game. I think they’ll be much, much sharper on Saturday night, and I think Trevor Lawrence can have a big day against a maligned Chargers defense. Herbert will keep LA in it from start to finish, and this game could likely come down to whichever QB has the ball in their hands when the clock hits triple zeros. I just happen to trust the home team a little bit more in almost every other area.

Bills 30-13 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

If Tua Tagovailoa was playing in this game for the Dolphins, perhaps it’d be worth talking about. We all saw how thrilling the primetime clash was between these two teams just a few weeks ago when Miami was at full strength. Alas, it will be Skylar Thompson once again for the Fins, which means they don’t stand a semblance of a chance. You’d think that any QB can step in and run that star-studded offense to perfection, but that’s simply not the case here. The Dolphins are infinitely worse without Tua, and it has shown in every single game he has missed. It took until the final moments of the final game of the season for them to win a game that Tua didn’t start and finish. That’s a pretty staggering statistic. Even if he were playing in this game, I don’t think it would have been enough to pick against Buffalo. The Bills are riding high into this matchup and playing inspired football, as we saw in last week’s amazing display for Damar Hamlin. They are simply better on both sides of the ball, and you can’t expect me to believe that Josh Allen won’t launch the ball all over the place once again in the playoffs. I think he’s in for what could be a special postseason run, and I think the Bills will once again put on a show en route to another emphatic victory over a division rival.

Vikings 26-23 Giants

Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, FOX

This could very well be the most fun game of the weekend, which is pretty hilarious given the QB matchup and the nature of these two teams. The Giants are a trendy sleeper pick in these playoffs despite finishing the year going 3-6-1 in their final 10 games. The Vikings are the team that everyone expects to bow out early due to their flukey nature when they play at a time other than 1pm and/or against good teams. Quite literally anything can happen in a matchup like this. They played just three weeks ago in this exact same spot and it was wild from start to finish with Minnesota walking it off on an improbable 61-yard field goal. New York was the better team in nearly every facet in that game and still came up short. Who’s to say that it won’t go the other way this time? It really wouldn’t shock me if the Giants were to flip the script. The Vikings aren’t that much better despite having a better record and the gift of playing at home. Plus, you just never know what you’re going to get out of Kirk Cousins. Rest really isn’t a factor when you consider that both of these teams rested their starters last week. So, what gives? I say experience. Experience matters in the playoffs. Kirk Cousins has played in this spot before in much tougher environments against much tougher teams. Daniel Jones’ toughest postseason test has been… the 2018 Independence Bowl? It just feels too inconceivable to see this young, inexperienced Giants team go on the road and knock off a more skilled Vikings team. I know their defense is awful, but I don’t believe the Giants have the offensive firepower to take advantage of that. Plus, all Minnesota has heard throughout the last few weeks is how awful they are and how they’ll be one and done. That’s bulletin board material for them. I think they’ll play this game with a chip on their shoulder, and while it might not be the most convincing win in the world when it’s all said and done, they’ll be the ones moving onto San Francisco in a week’s time.

Bengals 26-14 Ravens

Sunday, 8:15 PM EST, NBC

Remember what I said about Bills-Dolphins up there? Apropos of that here. The Ravens will once again be without Lamar Jackson as he misses his sixth straight game with what they said was a one-to-three week injury. Feels fishy, doesn’t it? Their reward for this medical mishap is going back on the road with their backup QB to play perhaps the hottest and, in my opinion, best team in the league who they just got smacked by one week ago with their own chip on their shoulders caused by the decision-making of the NFL. At least this time it’ll be Tyler Huntley, right? Who cares. Huntley has looked awful all year long, especially in divisional games. It might look prettier than Anthony Brown’s performance last Sunday, but I assure you, this will still be a wash for Cincinnati. The Bengals have so much to prove in so many ways, and Joe Burrow is going to light it up in an electric home primetime playoff atmosphere. It will honestly be awesome to see, and I can’t wait for it. I do have my reservations about the trenches for the Bengals on both sides of the ball. Their makeshift offensive line will have to keep Burrow upright against a solid Ravens front. But if he can get the ball out quick to his playmakers, then Cincy will absolutely cruise into a highly anticipated rematch with the Bills.

Buccaneers 20-17 Cowboys

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

Let me get this straight. Tom Brady is hosting a playoff game against a notoriously awful playoff team, quarterback, and head coach in a primetime spot having never lost to said team… and he’s an underdog? Yeah right. To bet against Brady and the Bucs in a situation like this would be dubious at best. They may have fallen backwards into the playoffs. They may be the only team in the field with a losing record. They may have been awful for the better part of the season. And yes, I may have slandered them all year long. But I would be a complete idiot to pick the Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy-led Cowboys to go on the road and beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. I do think Dallas is the better team in this game, but it just doesn’t make sense. They ended the year on a pitiful whimper in DC last week, and Dak has had perhaps the worst year of his career. Their offense looks worse by the game and their defense isn’t doing enough to make up for that. A team like Tampa will make you pay for those kinds of mistakes. They don’t inspire the most faith in the world, but their division-clinching win over the Panthers showed me that this team shows up when it matters. Tom Brady looked incredible in that win, and if he looks even half as good as that on Monday night, then the Cowboys are positively screwed. I don’t know if that will happen; this will probably be a tight game from start to finish that’s dominated by the defenses. In that case, I’m not picking against the Bucs defense against the turnover machine known as Dak. And I’m not picking against Tom Brady.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Post-Week 18 Power Rankings

With the regular season in the books, the final Power Rankings of the year provide an insight into how the playoff contestants stack up as well as some reflection on the seasons of those who didn’t make the dance.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

1 – Bengals (12-4)

The Cincinnati Bengals are my top team at the end of the 2022 season, but I don’t know if they have ever felt more vulnerable. Their offensive line, which has previously been so solid all year long, has lost two of its most key pieces in Alex Cappa and La’el Collins in the last three weeks. So, there’s a better chance than not that we see Joe Burrow under duress just as much as he was during last year’s playoff run. That being said, I still trust Burrow and the Bengals offense under any and all circumstances, and I still trust this defense. They have plenty of experience from last year and feel determined to make amends. Their injuries could come back to bite them, but as it stands, they are my Super Bowl favorites.

2 – Chiefs (14-3)

Kansas City ended their season far more emphatically than I pictured they would. They destroyed the Raiders on the road in one of their more convincing performances on the season. They barely had to do anything offensively to separate themselves. They didn’t have the flashiest game in the world, but it didn’t matter. This team simply kills you with a thousand paper cuts. Patrick Mahomes continues to be masterful, and the defense is carrying some nice momentum into the first round bye with back to back great performances, especially in the secondary. While there’s no guarantee of the Chiefs getting multiple home playoff games, they are extremely worthy of being the betting favorites to win it all. They are the team to beat in the NFL.

3 – 49ers (13-4)

The 49ers are the best team in the NFC. They might just be the best team in the league. With every passing week, they look better and better on both sides of the ball. I already have no idea how anyone is supposed to move the ball on their defense, but now I don’t know who can stop their offense. Brock Purdy continues to play better and better, and they just have too many weapons to account for. And now, Deebo Samuel is finally back. So is Elijah Mitchell, who provides an entirely different element to the already deadly backfield. This team is absolutely horrifying, even if they’re not the 1 seed. With the way the other NFC contenders have performed in the last month or so, I would genuinely be shocked if the Niners didn’t make it to Glendale in a month’s time.

4 – Bills (13-3)

I said last week that the Bills had the chance to give us one of the greatest sights in sports history. And they did just that. Buffalo was absolutely electric from start to finish in an inspiring win for Damar Hamlin to lock up the 2 seed and ensure that the AFC Championship be played at a neutral site if this team plays Kansas City. It also ensured a much easier first round matchup. While I think Buffalo could have played a better game defensively, Josh Allen was awesome from start to finish, launching the ball all over the place and making highlight throw after highlight throw. We saw the Bills get hot at the end of last year and carry that momentum into two great playoff games on offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the exact same thing happen again in the coming weeks.

5 – Eagles (14-3)

Despite getting Jalen Hurts back, the Eagles looked quite sluggish once again on Sunday. They did not play a great game by any means, but still won convincingly over the Giants backups. They did clinch the 1 seed, and I think they will really benefit from having a first round bye. We could see the Birds in two weeks come out scorching hot offensively. At the same time, we could see a repeat of Sunday’s performance lead to an early exit. Both seem entirely possible, but I have a bit more faith in the former actually happening. This team is too talented across the board to get complacent, especially after clinching the top seed. Their second round matchup will be the most important factor. If it’s the Giants or Cowboys, then they should be fine. But if it’s Tom Brady and the Bucs, they might be in trouble.

6 – Chargers (10-7) 1

The Chargers weren’t as cautious with their starters as I thought they would be on Sunday, but Brandon Staley did eventually pull Justin Herbert and company out of the game in the fourth quarter. However, it wasn’t before Mike Williams sustained an injury that could potentially keep him out of the Wild Card game in Jacksonville. That mistake could prove to be extremely costly for LA; we saw how their offense looked when they weren’t at full strength, and that’s not something this team can afford to revisit. However, the Chargers are getting some good injury news as Rashawn Slater could return to the team if they were to beat the Jaguars on Saturday night. The offensive line has played very well in his absence, but getting one of the best LTs in football back obviously provides a massive boost to the offense. In any case, it will be tough for the Chargers to go on the road and win in Herbert’s playoff debut. But we all know he’s capable of getting the job done.

7 – Jaguars (9-8) 1

We all know the Jags didn’t play their best game on Saturday night in a de facto playoff game. But I think that was expected. I told you all that it would be close despite the Titans’ QB situation. It was a combination of their coaching and the jitters of Jacksonville. I’m not shocked at all that they struggled for so long and needed a big break in the game’s waning moments to clinch their playoff spot. But I think that getting those jitters out of the way will be extremely helpful for this team as they head into a very tough playoff matchup with the Chargers. They will likely play a lot more relaxed and look like the Jags of December again.

8 – Cowboys (12-5) 2

Yeesh. For a team that could have wound up as the 1 seed by Sunday night, the Cowboys put up one of the most pathetic performances you will ever see. I don’t think I’ve truly realized how sad it was. To play a team playing a 3rd string QB with absolutely nothing to play for and virtually not show up is just embarrassing. Dak Prescott played perhaps the worst game of his professional career and the rest of the offense never got off the plane. The defense couldn’t stop a Commanders offense starting a plethora of backups. It was just an abomination from start to finish. It’s hard to tell if this is who the Cowboys are going into the playoffs, but it inspires little to no confidence ahead of a road matchup against Tom Brady, who has never lost to Dallas in his life.

9 – Vikings (13-4)

As I said last week, the Vikings didn’t have to do much to beat a Bears team that was essentially playing to lose to be handed the #1 pick in the draft. I still have my reservations about this team, but it was nice to see them close out a great regular season with a rare convincing victory. Minnesota was able to get their starters some rest ahead of a pretty tough matchup next week with a Giants team that also rested their starters on Sunday. Their game a few weeks ago was pretty close, and anything can happen in the rematch, but I’ll get more into that later this week.

10 – Lions (9-8)

The Lions may have missed out on the playoffs, but they won all of our hearts this season. They finished the season on a 7-2 tear after a poor 2-6 start, beating playoff teams and crushing playoff dreams left and right. Sunday night’s win in Lambeau was simply awesome to see, and it’s so cool that NFL fans can rally around this team like we have in recent weeks. I can’t wait to see what they have in store moving forward. I can only hope that they don’t mess it up in typical Detroit fashion, because this is one of my absolute favorite teams in the league right now, and I don’t want them to go away.

11 – Giants (9-7-1)

The Giants knew they were locked into the 6 seed and rested their starters accordingly. It would be vastly unfair to move them up or down after that. I actually like their chances going to Minnesota to play a team they nearly just beat in the very same building. It’s one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend, but like I said, I’ll get into it more later this week.

12 – Buccaneers (8-9) 3

Since they were locked into the 4 seed, the Buccaneers only played their starters for a few drives on Sunday in Atlanta before letting their backups get some reps in a meaningless loss. Thus, Tampa is the only playoff team with a losing record. You might as well throw that out the window, because having Tom Brady in the playoffs is enough to make the Bucs absolutely horrify me. I don’t know what this team has in store for the postseason considering how up and down they’ve been all year long, but if #12 plays like he did to close out the year and the defense steps up like they seemingly always do, then we could be in for some more playoff magic.

13 – Steelers (9-8) 1

Kudos to the Steelers for finishing the season so strong. Like the Lions, they closed out the year 7-2 after starting 2-6 to ensure that Mike Tomlin has still never finished a season with a losing record. By all means, Pittsburgh deserves to be the 7 seed in the AFC. However, the chips just didn’t fall their way. I’m still impressed with this team. They made something out of nothing time and time again, and while I have no idea what to make of their future, perhaps the pieces are there to return to their typical status. Kenny Pickett will continue to develop into a fine young QB, and the defense will keep balling out. If they can get some offensive weapons, then I’ll have high hopes for the Steelers in 2023.

14 – Dolphins (9-8) 1

The Dolphins have snuck into the playoffs as the 7 seed to every NFL fan’s dismay. If they had Tua Tagovailoa suiting up to play QB, we’d all be enticed by their matchup with the Bills on Sunday. Alas, it will be Skylar Thompson once again, and since they’re not playing the Joe Flacco-led Jets, they will get curbstomped. It’s not going to be pretty. I wish we could have seen this team at full strength in the postseason, but they only have themselves to blame for their shortcomings. Perhaps in 2023 they won’t fall apart as drastically as they did this year.

15 – Seahawks (9-8) 2

It wasn’t pretty by any means, but the Seahawks did their job on Sunday by beating the Rams and getting some help from the Lions in order to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s 7 seed. This may be a postseason team, but I still don’t feel great about them. They looked very sloppy against LA and realistically should have lost if Baker Mayfield didn’t hand them the ball over and over again. Geno Smith is still very careless with the ball and isn’t playing nearly as precise as he was to start the year. The run game was chugging, which is a good sign, but we all know this offense isn’t going to do a damn thing against the 49ers defense. I expect their postseason to stay to be extremely brief.

16 – Ravens (10-7)

That’s right. I think the Ravens are the single worst team in the playoff field. It’s largely due to their QB situation, but I also just haven’t liked what this team has been doing all year long. While I believe their defense has been very good since Roquan Smith came over from Chicago, their offense has been a complete mess, and the defense can’t make up for that. If Anthony Brown is the starting QB once again on Sunday in Cincinnati, then the Ravens don’t stand a chance. If it’s Tyler Huntley under center, then perhaps they can hang around for a bit. If Lamar Jackson returns, then they could definitely win, but that’s just too unlikely at this point. That means their offense is going to continue looking like a JV team. The defense might be able to stifle the Bengals’ high flying offense, but will it be enough? I doubt it.

17 – Packers (8-9) 5

I have no desire to talk about the Packers. To have their season ended at home for the third straight time after laying the third straight dud is just embarrassing. Aaron Rodgers once again checked out of the game and looked absolutely pathetic down the stretch. He is definitely leaving Green Bay, but that’s another story. Sunday night was simply another indictment on the Matt LaFleur era for the Packers. They were unprepared, poorly coached, made stupid decisions on and off the field and paid the price for it. That’s all this team has done in the last ten years. Nobody should be remotely surprised anymore.

18 – Patriots (8-9)

The Patriots were about as competitive as I expected them to be on Sunday, but just as I predicted, it was all for naught. For every positive, there was a negative, especially when it came to Mac Jones. He had some nice throws and wound up with three touchdown passes, but also had some pretty bad ones and threw two picks. The run game looked pretty solid at times, but they simply couldn’t rely on the run game once they got down. Perhaps the most disappointing thing was the defensive performance by a team that has prided itself on making plays on that side of the ball. They were pretty awful from start to finish, as was the special teams, which allowed two kick return touchdowns. It was simply a Murphy’s Law type of game for the Patriots, which is a pretty fitting ending to a season where so much has gone wrong.

19 – Commanders (8-8-1) 4

I have no remote idea where any of that came from, but I love it. I absolutely love this team showing a ton of fight to close out a tough season. I love beating the brakes off the Cowboys. I love the team and the fanbase rallying around Sam Howell going into next year. I love the defense showing up and showing out. I love FedEx rocking in a psuedo-primetime setting. I would have loved to see this type of energy in recent weeks when the season still could have amounted to something, but I’m not complaining. This is going to be a very weird offseason, and I have no idea what 2023 holds for this team or this franchise. But I’m going to enjoy the way 2022 came to a close after so many weeks of sadness.

20 – Panthers (7-10) 4

The Panthers had one of the strangest seasons of any team in the league. They were perhaps the worst team in the league through two months, then turned it around and were a few plays away from making the playoffs. Now, they enter an offseason where they need to find a QB and may need to find a new head coach as well. I think Steve Wilks has done enough to retain the job, just as I felt about Rich Bisaccia last year in Vegas. We all saw how replacing him worked out for the Raiders. If the Panthers can find a QB in the draft or free agency, they can definitely be a fun young team under Wilks next year. I just hope for their sake that they make the right decisions.

21 – Saints (7-10) 2

Like their NFC South counterparts above them, the Saints had a very strange 2022 season. They were bad, then good, then bad, then good, then bad again. Now, they enter a nightmare free agency period where they are almost sure to lose a ton of talent while not having much draft capital to work with. 2023 could be a year where the Saints are one of the worst teams in the league, regardless of who their head coach is. Dennis Allen should be fired by all means, but I don’t think any coach can salvage the absolute mess that New Orleans will be in a few months time.

22 – Raiders (6-11) 2

In a microcosm of their entire season, the Raiders looked much worse on Saturday than I thought they would. Like so many other teams in this range, Las Vegas enters a very strange offseason with a ton of questions. Derek Carr is almost certainly on his way out, but the team sits in a position where they can make a play for a top QB in the draft. Perhaps they try to fill the position through free agency; a certain GOAT has been linked to the franchise due to his preexisting relationship with the head coach. Regardless, there are a lot more problems here than just the QB position. The defense is still going to be an absolute mess, and Josh Jacobs is likely going to leave. It’s going to be a long year ahead for a team that only endures long years.

23 – Jets (7-10) 2

The second half of the season couldn’t have gone any worse for the Jets. Going from 6-3 to 7-10 and losing the final six games of the year is simply inexcusable, even by Jets standards. Their QB play was abysmal down the stretch, and injuries unfortunately got the better of them. I don’t think this season is a failure by any means, in fact, this team overachieved more than anything else. They should feel great about their fantastic rookie class and phenomenal young pieces moving forward. The most important thing is finding a QB this offseason, and with a solid young roster, I think the Jets will have plenty of suitors.

24 – Browns (7-10) 2

It’s safe to say that the Browns vastly underperformed this season. It’s rather shocking that they were clearly better with Jacoby Brissett at QB than Deshaun Watson. That will likely change next year, but I’m not sure if that’s a guarantee. We’ll see what happens. This is a solid roster from top to bottom that can’t afford to underachieve again. I would love to see that though.

25 – Titans (7-10)

The Titans did exactly what I thought they were going to do on Saturday night. They were competitive from start to finish and their poor QB play cost them the game and the division. It was extremely obvious. Now, Tennessee is faced with a ton of questions going into what is sure to be a weird offseason. The QB position isn’t entirely settled and the WR group is rather pitiful. They better hope to revamp the offense to be vastly better than the unit that let them down in such a big way in 2022. I trust Mike Vrabel to get the job done, but they better hope that whichever GM they hire can do it as well.

26 – Rams (5-12)

Simply put, the 2022 Rams were the worst defending champions I have ever seen. You can blame it on their awful injury luck, but they were pretty bad even before that. This team has no future at all, and now Sean McVay might be stepping down. They are all sorts of screwed if that ends up happening. They have no picks and are in cap hell, so good luck to whoever inherits this absolute mess of a franchise after he’s gone. Like the Saints, this doesn’t seem like a salvageable situation.

27 – Broncos (5-12) 1

Good for the Broncos to close out such a tough season with a nice win at home against a division rival. I could tell how much it meant to Russell Wilson, the team, and the fans. Perhaps Denver can carry this momentum into next year. It will certainly be tough with limited draft capital and a limited offensive roster. This team will simply go as far as Russ and whichever HC they hire can take them. That doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but perhaps the Broncos have what it takes to do a 180 in 2023.

28 – Falcons (7-10) 1

All things considered, a 7-win season should be considered as a massive success for the Falcons. This team is absolute garbage and got hammered with injuries and bad luck all year long and still managed to finish the year a game out of first place. That’s remarkable. I like what Arthur Smith is cooking in Atlanta, and I think that this team can produce a fruitful future if they play their cards right this offseason. They have to nail free agency and the draft, and they better hope that they can find a QB. I hate to say it, but Desmond Ridder is simply not going to be the guy moving forward.

29 – Texans (3-13-1) 2

Congratulations, Texans! You just fumbled one of the most un-fumble-able bags in the history of the sport! You now have to watch as someone (perhaps a division rival) jumps you for the QB you so desperately craved to save your franchise! And for what? I understand that this is a professional football team and they’re not just going to go out there and throw a game, but come on. The #2 pick is still a good place to be in with two great QBs atop this draft class, but not having the top selection is definitely going to sting. I don’t see Houston making a play for #1, so they’ll have to roll with whatever their plan B is. And they only have themselves to blame.

30 – Cardinals (4-13) 1

When I got the notification that Kliff Kingsbury had been fired, I audibly cheered. I had been waiting for that for far too long. He had no business being an NFL head coach, and this franchise deserved better. Perhaps his replacement can forge an actual relationship with the franchise QB that they paid $250 million. Regardless of whether that happens, I have a bad feeling that the Cards will continue to be in a tough spot moving forward. This is not a very good roster, and their best players on either side of the ball are going to leave as JJ Watt retires and DeAndre Hopkins wants a trade. Not to mention Kyler Murray likely won’t be ready to start at the beginning of next season. I’m penciling in Arizona as one of the frontrunners for the top pick in 2024.

31 – Colts (4-12-1) 1

By losing to the Texans, the Colts cemented themselves as the worst team in the AFC. That’s a pretty hilarious statement considering this team is now in prime position to jump the Texans to take the #1 pick in the draft and steal whichever QB their division rivals wanted to pick. If/when the Colts get their franchise QB, they should be in a solid spot moving forward. This is a solid roster that was drastically held back by QB play, injuries, and coaching in 2022. With a young star QB that inherits Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and a great defense, as well as a coach not named Jeff Saturday, they can definitely turn things around next year as long as they keep their key players on the roster.

32 – Bears (3-14)

Congrats to the Bears for somehow falling ass backwards into the #1 pick in the Draft. I’m actually really happy for them, seeing as they can now flip that pick into infinitely more draft capital in a trade with some other team in the top 5-10 that desperately needs a franchise QB. Chicago already has their guy in Justin Fields, all they need to do is trade back, take a defensive lineman/edge rusher, and use their extra picks as well as their league-leading $100 million of cap space to continue building around their young star QB. This is going to be one of the most important offseasons in the history of the franchise, and I don’t say that lightly. If Chicago makes all the right moves, they will be right back in the thick of things in the years to come. If they don’t, they might never return to the glory days.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 18 Picks

The final week of the 2022 regular season is upon us with a plethora of different playoff scenarios and postseason-deciding matchups that could allow this great season to end on a high note.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 10-5

Season Total: 161-91-2

Chiefs 27-20 Raiders

Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

The only reason that I feel like this game will be remotely close is because of how much the Chiefs have struggled as big favorites this year and throughout Patrick Mahomes’ tenure in KC. As 9.5-point road favorites, a close game feels imminent. The Raiders certainly have the offensive talent to keep up with Kansas City, even if Jarrett Stidham is still the starting QB. Expect another huge game out of Davante Adams, who lit up the Chiefs secondary in primetime early in the season. But I have no doubt that the Chiefs will come away with the win. For starters, Mahomes has still never lost a road divisional game, which is one of the most staggering statistics in league history. He’s probably going to light up the statsheet in another massive performance. Moreover, the Chiefs know that the 1 seed is on the line, and they have to win to ensure homefield advantage for at least one of their playoff games. They will do what they have to do on Saturday evening in Paradise.

Jaguars 20-19 Titans

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC

I feel like everybody thinks the Titans are going to get whacked in this game. Honestly, I feel that sentiment. But I know more than anything that Mike Vrabel always coaches the Titans to play their best ball in these moments. Even on the road with their 3rd string QB, I know I can expect Tennessee to fight their tail off with the division on the line. But it feels impossible to pick against the Jaguars in this spot. They have a golden opportunity to usher in a new era of football in Jacksonville and finally crown Trevor Lawrence as the savior, taking them to their first division title in his first real year of play. I think it’s going to be a slugfest throughout, and I actually think that Lawrence and the Jaguars offense will largely struggle against the stout Titans front. I feel like it’ll be the Jags’ young defense that steps up and makes a play against Josh Dobbs and the Titans offense to seal it in the end.

Buccaneers 20-10 Falcons

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is one of the most irrelevant and meaningless of the week. The Buccaneers are locked into the NFC’s 4 seed no matter what happens here. The Falcons should honestly just throw the game in hopes for a better draft pick. They’re so bad that, even though I’m sure they’re going to try their best, it’s going to look like they’re doing just that.

Bills 31-20 Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I find it impossible to talk about this game. It’s so difficult to talk about the Bills in any capacity right now. But as the days pass, we receive more and more great news about Damar Hamlin. On Friday, we received word that he can speak and called his teammates to cheer them on for this game. That is extremely powerful stuff. I think this whole situation has brought the Bills together, and this good news will give them the strength to go out and dominate for their brother. I think they will be uplifted in a way we rarely see in sports. The Patriots are a worthy opponent and could put up a fight as they play for their season, but it’ll be no match for a Buffalo team that is doing more than just playing football. It could truly be one of the greatest sights in sports history.

Vikings 26-16 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This game is also pretty irrelevant other than the fact that the Vikings could be the 2 seed by the end of the day. But we all know that’s not going to happen. I don’t think they’ll rest any starters, but even if they do, they’re not going to lose to a Bears team without Justin Fields that looks like they’re ready to have the #1 pick in the draft fall into their lap.

Bengals 26-13 Ravens

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is a bit of a strange circumstance. This game could have been the AFC North-decider. Regardless, I think this would have been a wash for the Bengals in any situation. The Ravens are still starting Tyler Huntley at QB, which means they are guaranteed to do absolutely nothing for sixty minutes on offense. Cincinnati is at home coming off an extremely emotional, difficult situation on Monday night. I think they’ll come out and be prepared to dominate just like I think the Bills will be. It won’t take much on either side of the ball to beat this boring, overrated Ravens team, but I’m very excited to see what they have in store. I hope Joe Burrow and the offense puts on a show as they head into the playoffs, where I will certainly be rooting for them.

Texans 20-10 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

If the Texans are smart, they’ll essentially throw this game. But I don’t see them doing that. Not because I don’t think they’re smart, but the Colts might just be smarter. If you’re Indianapolis, you have nothing to play for. You want to improve your own draft stock while hurting your division rival’s chances at bagging a generational franchise QB in April. I can totally see the Colts being the ones to throw the game and improve their own standing. I also feel like the Texans are just generally the better team, but we’re comparing trash to garbage here. I’m just excited to see this generational tank-off.

Dolphins 20-17 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Ah, yes. Skylar Thompson vs. Joe Flacco. Just how we want to be spending our Sunday afternoon. Neither of these teams deserve to make the playoffs. However, it feels like the chips are going to fall the Dolphins’ way. I’d have to believe that they can beat the Flacco-led Jets, who haven’t put together a performance worth a damn in months. I don’t trust them with any backup QB, but there is simply no excuse to lose a game in this spot at home. With this win and the Patriots loss, Miami will be in. They better hope Tua can come back in a week’s time.

Saints 17-13 Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

With both of these teams being eliminated last week, this game means absolutely nothing. I feel like the Saints are playing slightly better football right now, especially defensively, and they don’t have to worry about winning tanking their draft pick, since the Eagles own it. Their momentum will carry them to a nice home win to close out the season, while the Panthers’ year ends on a whimper rather than a roar.

Steelers 13-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The only thing I can guarantee in this game is that it will be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest. I typically like the underdogs in games like this, and should have learned my lesson with the AFC North after both Steelers-Ravens games. But I just feel like the Steelers are the better-coached team. They’re honestly the better team overall. It’s hard to see them losing at home with their season on the line. But I really wanted to flip this pick. The Browns would absolutely love to play spoiler against their bitter rival, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they’re the ones to come away with the close win. I’m just trusting logic on this one. Because that always gets me so far, right?

Broncos 21-17 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Chargers largely have nothing to play for in this game. By the time it kicks off, they will see that the Ravens will have lost and that they will be locked into the 5 seed for a matchup with the AFC South winner next week. I can see them taking it a bit easy and likely resting their starters for the second half, if not the entire game. That feels like a very Chargers thing to do. The Broncos, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight since firing Nathaniel Hackett, and I can see them closing out this tumultuous year on a high note going into what will be a very strange offseason.

Eagles 28-16 Giants

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Regardless of any and all other outcomes on Sunday, the Giants are locked into the 6 seed in the NFC, and will likely be going to Minnesota next week. They have absolutely nothing to play for and will likely be resting their starters. Meanwhile, the Eagles are getting Jalen Hurts back as they try to lock up the NFC East and the 1 seed. So, being a 14-point road favorite makes a lot of sense. I don’t know if they cover that, but they should be able to win convincingly against the Giants’ B team as they head into their well-earned bye.

49ers 27-10 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The 49ers are still in play for the 1 seed, and while they likely won’t get it, the 2 seed is a plenty good consolation prize. Regardless of any of that, they are playing one of the worst teams in football in the comfort of their own home. They will end their fantastic regular season on a high note by dismantling a Cardinals team that is starting their 4th string QB yet again. Their defense might put up Wilt numbers as they lock in the 2 seed in the NFC.

Seahawks 23-20 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks will be fighting for their lives on Sunday evening. With a win and some help from the Lions, they’ll hold the 7 seed in the NFC and fall backwards into the playoffs. While the second part of that equation is a little less likely, I think Seattle will do what they have to do and get the necessary victory at home against a competitive Rams team. I don’t have much faith in the Seahawks as of late, but I think their coaching and generally superior talent should allow them to prevail in this spot. Whether or not they get the requisite assistance from Detroit in order to make the postseason is a different story.

Cowboys 27-14 Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

You know, at least the coaching staff has the decency to start Sam Howell at QB in this game. We might as well see what we have in the rookie before the eventual crapshoot of this offseason. It won’t help that he’s playing a great team that has something to fight for in this game. It’s going to be an embarrassing sight to say the least. FedEx will be packed with Cowboy fans and the team will get smacked in what we can only hope and pray is Dan Snyder’s final game as owner of the franchise. And this awful, painful season can finally come to a close… and I can finally rest.

Packers 23-20 Lions

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

This was the game the NFL decided to flex into Sunday night to be the final game of the 2022 regular season. And I can’t wrap my head around it. Before this game even kicks off, the Lions will know whether or not they are eliminated depending on the results of the Seahawks game. If Seattle were to lose, then this is a winner-take-all game for the 7 seed. But if they don’t, then the Lions have nothing to play for. Unfortunately for Detroit, the latter seems far more likely. In any case, they can’t overcome the most powerful thing in the entire NFL: the script. The script has been out and about for the last month or so for the NFL’s beloved Buccaneers and Packers, and nothing is stopping both of those teams from making the playoffs. While I doubt either are capable of doing anything worth a damn once they get there, the league will do what they have to in order to ensure that their brands and ratings are thriving. The Lions are a better team than the Packers and should win this game by all means. It’s hard to go into Lambeau in a spot like this and win, but I think they can do it. Their offense can move the ball in the cold, and their defense might just show up against a Packers offense that is finding its stride. But we all know the NFL would much rather have Green Bay in the playoffs than Detroit. So the outcome has already been decided. What a sorry way for this incredible season to come to a close.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Post-Week 17 Power Rankings

One of the scariest, most devastating weeks in NFL history has shaken the sports world to its core. Out of respect, these Power Rankings are the list of teams and nothing more.

Cover photo taken from The New Yorker.

This has been the most difficult week of sports in my life. The incident with Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin shook me to my core, as it did for anyone who watched it or heard about it. It has made me take a step back and reflect on how this is really just a game. And it took me a while to come back and remember that there are still games left to be played. Both out of respect for Hamlin and because of my own personal feelings at the moment, I don’t find it appropriate to be talking about the games when his life is on the line. That’s why this week’s Power Rankings have taken until the end of the week to come out, and why I won’t be writing about any of the teams or games from Week 17. Tomorrow’s Picks will be as normal as they can be, but for now, here’s my Power Rankings in their most bare form as we head into to the final week of the 2022 NFL season.

1 – Bengals (11-4) 1

2 – Chiefs (13-3) 1

3 – 49ers (12-4) 1

4 – Bills (12-3) 1

5 – Eagles (13-3) 4

6 – Cowboys (12-4)

7 – Chargers (10-6)

8 – Jaguars (8-8) 1

9 – Vikings (12-4) 1

10 – Lions (8-8) 2

11 – Giants (9-6-1) 3

12 – Packers (8-8) 5

13 – Dolphins (8-8) 3

14 – Steelers (8-8) 4

15 – Buccaneers (8-8) 5

16 – Ravens (10-6) 5

17 – Seahawks (8-8) 4

18 – Patriots (8-8) 4

19 – Saints (7-9) 5

20 – Raiders (6-10) 1

21 – Jets (7-9) 8

22 – Browns (7-9) 3

23 – Commanders (7-8-1) 8

24 – Panthers (6-10) 8

25 – Titans (7-9) 2

26 – Rams (5-11)

27 – Falcons (6-10)

28 – Broncos (4-12) 2

29 – Cardinals (4-12) 1

30 – Colts (4-11-1) 1

31 – Texans (2-13-1)

32 – Bears (3-13)

Week 17 Picks

The penultimate slate of the regular season and final one of 2022 features some of the biggest matchups of the season that can and will have immense impacts on the playoff race.

Cover photo taken from ESPN.

Last Week: 10-6

Season Total: 151-86-2

Cowboys 24-13 Titans

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

It’s only fitting that we get such a dud as the final Thursday nighter of the season. The Titans are starting Josh Dobbs at QB for whatever reason, so this one might be even more of a blowout than I expected. You gotta feel bad for Malik Willis. The Cowboys won’t have to do much in this game to come away with a win, even on the road in primetime. They do have some injuries to key players like Tony Pollard, but they should still be able to run the ball just fine. And I trust Dak Prescott to limit his mistakes and make the necessary throws to win the game. Unless Tennessee comes out and plays their best game of the season on defense, they really don’t stand a chance. That’s just fine for them, since their season comes down to next week.

Falcons 16-13 Cardinals

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is an abhorrent game between two of my least favorite teams in the league to watch. I want absolutely nothing to do with it. It’s important for draft positioning, I suppose, but other than that, it’s a complete waste of time. So, I’m just giving you this pick and moving on to more pressing matchups.

Lions 27-24 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions are probably very happy to be back home after a stretch of tough road games. Ford Field is where they thrive, especially against a putrid team like Chicago. Their offense should be firing on all cylinders once again. But their defense still concerns me. They were absolutely shredded on the ground, and now face an even better rushing attack led by Justin Fields and David Montgomery. That’s why I think that this will be close at the very least. Fields will likely run wild in this game and keep the Bears in it with his legs. But we all know Chicago simply lacks the offensive firepower in a spot like this. They don’t have it in them to win a road game against a divisional opponent fighting for their season. The Lions know what they have to do, and I think they’ll get the job done in the end.

Chiefs 27-10 Broncos

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Remember how scorching hot the Chiefs were in that first half in Denver a few weeks ago? Yeah, I’m seeing a repeat performance of that back home at Arrowhead. This is going against one of my patented philosophies of teams bouncing back after getting embarrassed on national TV like the Broncos were on Christmas, but that philosophy only applies to teams worth a damn. Denver is not. They are going to get smacked once again by a vastly better team. It’s going to be ugly. I can’t wait to see it.

Patriots 20-17 Dolphins

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Dolphins will likely be without Tua Tagovailoa in this game. If the games he missed earlier this year were any indication, Miami is rather screwed without him. I think Teddy Bridgewater is a plenty capable backup, do we think he can go into Foxboro and win this pivotal divisional clash with both teams jockeying for a playoff spot? I don’t. It’s extremely hard to put any faith in the Patriots, but I feel like they can win in a spot like this, especially at home. Teddy will have his hands full with a solid Patriots defense that flies all over the place. If he can get the ball out quick to his playmakers, the Dolphins can win. It’s just hard to bet on that happening.

Giants 22-14 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

I put my faith in the Colts to keep it close on Monday night. I will not make that mistake again. I do think the Giants are much worse than the Chargers are, but I don’t see a world where the Nick Foles-led Colts go on the road and beat a playoff team. Perhaps it will be closer than their last game, but they won’t come out on top. The Giants put up a good fight last Sunday, as I presumed they would, and I think they’ll be eager to get back in the win column against a lowly Indianapolis team that looks like they’re tanking. It should be an easy one.

Eagles 27-14 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Regardless of who starts under center for the Eagles in this game, it should not be close. The Saints are a nice story and have been playing well as of late, but they haven’t faced a team like Philly in a while. To expect them to go on the road and win is foolish, even if the Birds are starting Gardner Minshew again. The backup QB did his thing last week and I’m plenty confident in his ability to lead this team to wins, even against a tough New Orleans defense. I am a bit concerned about Philadelphia’s own defense, but this is a great chance for them to bounce back against Andy Dalton and a poor Saints offense. The Eagles want to lock up that 1 seed, and I think they’ll do so emphatically.

Panthers 23-16 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I told you all on Tuesday that I am fully convinced the Panthers will win this division. It all comes down to this game. If Tampa Bay wins, then they are going to the playoffs as champions of the NFC South. Carolina needs to win their final two games in order to stop that. It is remarkably difficult to go on the road and beat a division rival, especially when they’re led by Tom Brady. But I have eyes. I have watched these two teams as of late. While the Panthers have new life and play rather inspired football, the Buccaneers have never looked more dead. I don’t think they have it in them to rise to this occasion and assert themselves to clinch the division title. I think the Panthers will be able to get after Brady and the lifeless Bucs offense, doing just enough offensively to put themselves over the top in the clutch. And this division race will come down to the final day of the season.

Commanders 23-10 Browns

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Every time I pick us to beat an opponent convincingly, it goes awfully. I have not learned my lesson. This one feels a bit more justifiable, though. The Browns have looked awful since Deshaun Watson has returned, not being able to muster more than 13 points on offense. Now, they go on the road and play one of the more stout defenses in the league. There has been a lot of discourse around the starting QB for the Commanders, but it doesn’t matter in this game. I assure you that our defense will be the differentiating factor. I am totally in favor of Carson Wentz starting for the rest of the year, and I don’t think he’ll have to do that much to win this one. Just make the necessary throws and let your run game and defense do the rest against a team that is absolutely reeling to stay alive in the playoff picture. It is so simple. Please don’t let me down again… please.

Jaguars 19-13 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Jaguars have a very easy, simple path to the playoffs in front of them. This game virtually doesn’t even matter; all they have to do is beat Tennessee next week. For that reason, I think the Jags will make the mistake of looking ahead to Week 18 and struggle a bit in this game against a clearly capable Texans team. I have no doubt in their ability to come away with a win, but this will definitely be a slugfest. People forget that the Texans’ lone win before last week came against this very Jaguars team earlier this season. Jacksonville has improved greatly since then, as has Trevor Lawrence, but I think this will be a classic close divisional game. I expect Lawrence to make the plays at the end of the game to put his team over the top. But, like I said, this game is largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

49ers 34-10 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Raiders have thrown in the towel on the 2022 season. Derek Carr has been benched in a strategic move that essentially ends his tenure in silver and black. It’s almost sad, but this franchise has nothing to blame but itself. Jarrett Stidham will be their starting QB for the last two games, and his first test is against the best defense in years. It’s not going to be pretty. San Francisco will control this game from start to finish and absolutely embarrass their former Bay Area neighbors.

Seahawks 24-20 Jets

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

This is a remarkably intriguing game, even though it may not seem like one on paper. Like MIA-NE and CAR-TB, this game essentially decides the season for both of these teams as they continue to fight to sneak into the playoffs. And it feels so hard to pick. These teams match up with each other really well and have had nearly identical seasons up to this point. Great rookie classes have these teams vastly overachieving, but as the season has moved forward and injuries have racked up, they find themselves on the outside looking in. So, what gives in such an even matchup? I would say home field advantage, but the Seahawks haven’t won in Seattle since before Halloween, which is pretty staggering. I would say the run games, but neither one is particularly effective. I would say the defenses, but like everything else, they are almost identical. I would give the Jets the slight advantage due to their front seven, but both of these defenses have found themselves struggling in recent weeks, and it’s hard to put faith in either one. So, it comes down to the offenses. Do you trust Mike White or Geno Smith more? It’s a very even split. With both of these teams spiraling downwards so steeply, I’d be better off flipping a coin for this pick. But I’m taking the Seahawks because I trust their coaching and their offense just a tiny bit more than I can trust New York’s. The tiniest bit more.

Vikings 23-20 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This has been one of the most impossible picks of the season. I haven’t stopped going back and forth all week. Vegas sees the Packers as the better team in this game, and that’s not a completely irresponsible take. Green Bay has strung together some nice performances to keep their season alive. Any more losses and they’re done. They need to play their best game of the year by a solid margin against a team that embarrassed them in Week 1. At home in a massive spot like this, it’s hard to envision them not coming out and doing just that. But will it be enough? The Vikings have been the chosen ones of this season, winning every game by the skin of their teeth and improbably coming out on top week after week. I don’t know when their luck is going to run out, but I don’t think it will be here. It is immensely difficult to go to Lambeau and beat the Packers in a spot like this where Green Bay has infinitely more to play for. But I just can’t pick against the Vikings while they continue to pull out win after win. I genuinely think the Packers will win this game, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Minnesota is not quite yet out of miracles.

Chargers 26-14 Rams

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The battle for Los Angeles looked infinitely better on paper in the offseason than it is right now. What should have been a potential Super Bowl preview has been reduced to another easy win for the Chargers. I do think this game can be fun though. I always enjoy watching both teams play in their own stadium. But the Chargers are infinitely better than the Rams, and I don’t see them getting complacent after clinching a playoff spot last week. They won’t have to do too much to assert themselves. If Justin Herbert continues playing lights out and their defense continues their dominant ways against a Rams offense that has looked solid but we all know is awful, they will win without breaking a sweat.

Ravens 13-10 Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Nothing like Steelers-Ravens in primetime late in the season with so much on the line. This is football heritage. We still don’t know if Lamar Jackson will be playing in this game for the Ravens, but in my opinion, that is largely irrelevant. Just a few weeks ago, we saw this matchup in Pittsburgh, and Baltimore came away with a convincing win without Lamar. At home in primetime, why can’t they do the same? Well, it’s hard to beat any team twice. It’s even harder to beat your bitter rival twice. At the very least, this game will be extremely low-scoring and close, dominated by both defenses as the lowly offenses struggle. I’m picking the Ravens because I believe their defense is ever so slightly better, and I can see them making life hell for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. If Tyler Huntley and Baltimore’s offense puts together just enough good offensive possessions, they will win. A Justin Tucker walkoff field goal feels inevitable in a spot like this.

Bengals 30-27 Bills

Monday, 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

There aren’t many games that I’ve been looking more forward to this season than this clash of giants in primetime. Getting this matchup after the Rose Bowl on Monday evening is better than any Christmas present. These are two Goliaths of their conference and the league as a whole, and feasibly could have been the AFC Championship Game last year. Perhaps it’s a preview of this year’s title game. In any case, I just know that this is going to be a classic between two of the best teams in football. It’s easy to say that it could go either way, but that’s the truth of it. The spread is paper thin for a reason. These teams match up perfectly with one another with each boasting star-studded offenses led by their stellar young QBs in Joe Burrow and Josh Allen and superstar WR1s in Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs. Both defenses are going through it with injuries but are still plenty capable. While I like Cincinnati’s offense more than Buffalo’s, I give the edge to the Bills’ defense over the Bengals’. It makes this game so hard to pick. But I have to give the edge to Burrow and the Bengals at home. These guys simply win every massive game they play in. They have been much better than the Bills in the last 3 months or so. And I trust Burrow more than I trust Allen. He is far more cautious with the ball, and he has more weapons at his disposal. The Bills will not back down, and their offense will certainly do their thing against a battered Cincy defense, but I just don’t see a world where the Bengals lose a game of this magnitude at home. Their playmakers will do what they have to do down the stretch to set up a late win in an incredible primetime environment. It’s going to be a sight to behold. I can’t wait for it.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Post-Week 16 Power Rankings

Christmas weekend did not disappoint as both the Power Rankings and the playoff picture continue to get messier. With two weeks to go in the regular season, anything can happen.

Cover photo taken from CBS 17.

1 – Eagles (13-2)

Can anyone provide me a valid reason why I should move the Eagles down this week? They went on the road with a backup QB and lost by 6 in a shootout against one of the best teams in the conference that just so happens to be their division rival. That says something. Gardner Minshew did his thing, and I have no doubt that the Eagles will win out regardless of whether or not Jalen Hurts returns before the playoffs. However, I do have one concern with Saturday’s performance by Philly. Their defense got absolutely gashed, especially through the air, and gave up a lot of head-scratching plays. They did make some nice plays of their own, but they broke down when the game was on the line. Injuries have shaken them up a little bit, and they can’t afford another performance like this in January.

2 – Bengals (11-4)

I seriously considered moving the Bengals down a notch this week, but it didn’t feel right. As I always say, getting out to a huge lead and then letting up a little is only natural. It happens to everyone in this league. This team never trailed, was firing on all cylinders in the first half, and let some complacency and injuries make it close in the end. But guess what? They still made every play to win the game, highlighted by the fumble recovery in their own redzone to seal it. Joe Burrow put together another masterful performance despite the offensive line falling apart around him, but whether or not that can continue is going to determine the outcome of this season for Cincinnati. We’ve seen Joe pull rabbits out of hats with a makeshift OL before, but we’ve also seen that be this team’s undoing. They could be in for a rude awakening if they let those injuries get the best of them, especially with the defense still in recovery.

3 – Chiefs (12-3)

I’ll give the Chiefs a ton of credit for playing much better defensively than I expected them to on Saturday. They had the Seahawks completely locked up from start to finish and never wavered on either side of the ball. Patrick Mahomes played a tremendous game, once again putting the team on his back, and has all but secured this year’s MVP. The defense was relentless in getting after the passer, and the secondary played their best game in weeks against a very solid WR group. It was a performance that inspired a ton of confidence in this team as we head towards the postseason. If KC gets a gift from Cincinnati on Monday night and is able to lock up the 1 seed the following week, I’m not sure they can be stopped en route to Glendale.

4 – 49ers (11-4)

I honestly feel like I have the 49ers too low at 4. This could feasibly be the best team in the NFL. They, along with the three teams above them, are far and away the best teams in football. This team just keeps on looking better and better with every passing week. On Saturday, it was the offense that once again put together a masterful performance against a solid defense. The run game was a bit stagnant, but Brock Purdy was slinging the rock all over the yard for another huge day. George Kittle has found himself again and added a massively effective wrinkle to this already deadly offense that will only be scarier once Deebo Samuel returns. The defense didn’t have their best day, especially in the secondary, but the pass rush was still ferocious and allowed the Niners to separate themselves in the second half. This might be the scariest team in the league right now, and I can’t wait to see what they have left in store.

5 – Bills (12-3)

Buffalo got off to a very, very slow start on Saturday amidst the frigid temperatures in Chicago. It was not a promising sight. However, the second half was very promising as the offense was moving the ball very well on the ground and the defense made play after play. But I’m taking it with a grain of salt. They were playing a notoriously awful second half team in the Bears and they still couldn’t throw the ball effectively. Josh Allen had a 71.3 passer rating on 57% completion against a below average secondary. I just feel like I never know what Bills team is going to show up on any given Sunday. Will they be the offensive juggernauts with Allen launching deep balls and running over defenders? Will the offense be stuck in quicksand and limited through the air? Will the defense get gashed or be a brick wall? Monday night’s potential game of the year in Cincinnati will answer a lot of these questions as we head into the playoffs.

6 – Cowboys (11-4)

I give the Cowboys a ton of credit for keeping their composure after a nightmare start on Saturday to fight their way back in the game and win it late with some massive plays down the stretch. I was thoroughly impressed with their execution and resilience in the final stages of the game, including converting a miracle 3rd and 30 which helped keep them alive. Dak Prescott played a great game after throwing another bad pick six, CeeDee Lamb was unstoppable, and while the defense got gashed for the most part, they made the plays they had to when it mattered most. It was a very inspiring performance by a team that usually lacks in that department. That confidence can go a very long way as this team prepares for a very difficult playoff path.

7 – Chargers (9-6) 1

I hate saying this because I know it will come back to haunt me, but the Chargers are one of the spookiest teams in the league right now. Their offense is healthy and clicking, and their defense is playing lights out despite not being healthy. Now, Joey Bosa is on his way back for the playoffs. It’s pretty terrifying. Everyone thought the Chargers would be contenders before the season, then injuries put them in the dirt. But now that they’re getting healthy again, we’re seeing them live up to their potential. I assure you, nobody wants to see this team in the postseason. They’ll be a Wild Card team, but they can and will do damage.

8 – Vikings (12-3) 1

The 2022 Minnesota Vikings are the luckiest NFL team I have ever seen. The simple statistic of being 11-0 in one-score games is one of the most staggering figures in history. People keep talking about an inevitable regression to the mean with the Vikes, but we might just have to accept the fact that they’re a team of destiny. I feel bad, because it’s going to make their inevitable home playoff loss that much more painful for their tortured fanbase. I don’t take back what I’ve said about the Vikings being a legit team that should be respected, but I just find it impossible to believe that this level of luck and late-game heroism will continue once the playoffs roll around. But they are peak entertainment, so I would love to be proven wrong.

9 – Jaguars (7-8) 3

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a first place team with two weeks to play. What a time to be alive. Thursday night’s win was ugly and gross, but it was dominant more than anything else. I understand that it doesn’t take much of a defensive performance to dominate against Zach Wilson, but they locked up an effective offense while their own offense did its thing to come away with a win. The story of the Jags has been the same for the last month: they play inspired defense while Trevor Lawrence executes the offense to perfection. It’s hard to see that stopping as they move towards this division title.

10 – Dolphins (8-7) 1

It’s pretty hard to believe considering where this team stood a month ago, but the wheels have fallen off the Dolphins. I said that I didn’t think the 49ers exposed them a few weeks ago, but perhaps the blueprint was laid out on how to stop their explosive offense. NFL teams are now following that blueprint to a T, and it has made this offense much less effective than it was before. And the only person to blame for that is the QB, which I warned you all about. Tua has been figured out, and now that defenses are testing him, he is playing awfully. His performance on Sunday was his worst of the year, and none of his three consecutive 4th quarter interceptions were particularly close to anyone wearing a Dolphins uniform. Now that defenses are forcing Miami to win with Tua’s arm, they are no longer capable of winning. Once again, I foresaw this weeks ago, and we’re seeing the worst of it now. All of a sudden, this potential Super Bowl contender has been reduced to a team that has to fight to stay alive in the Wild Card race. At this point, who knows if they’re even capable of making the dance?

11 – Ravens (10-5) 4

Despite their horrendous opposition, the Ravens deserve some credit for staying afloat and keeping their division hopes alive in these last few weeks without Lamar Jackson. Now that he’ll likely be returning this week, they have a great shot to win the last two pivotal AFC North clashes to clinch the division. Even if he doesn’t play, we know they’ll be viable, especially at home against an average Steelers team this week. The defense remains the most impressive thing about this team, but I don’t know how to assess them when they play the likes of Cleveland and Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Denver. Week 18’s game in Cincinnati will tell us just who this team is as they head into the postseason.

12 – Lions (7-8) 2

That was extremely ugly. I said last week that the Lions’ struggles with defending the run could be the reason they lost on Saturday. I didn’t expect it to be that bad. This defense got flat out embarrassed by a team that simply out-coached, out-schemed, and outplayed them. The Panthers wanted it more and it showed. But it’s more than the fact that the defense got ripped to shreds. This offense played one of its worst games in the last several months. It’s hard to go on the road and beat a good defense, but at least we had seen the Lions do that from time to time. Saturday’s game brought out the worst in both sides of the ball when they could have seized a massive opportunity to get into the playoff picture. It’s a very steep uphill climb now.

13 – Jets (7-8) 2

Here’s the good news for the Jets: Zach Wilson has played his last snap in New York. He is absolutely cooked and will likely never be a starting QB ever again. This is also great news for NFL fans like myself who knew that he would never be anything short of awful in this league and both love being proven right and never having to see him play again. With Mike White returning this week, the Jets have a fighting shot to make the playoffs, but it’s going to be really hard. They don’t control their own destiny, and a lot of unlikely scenarios have to go their way. This team isn’t going to back down, but at the end of the day, I don’t think it’s going to be enough.

14 – Giants (8-6-1) 1

15 – Commanders (7-7-1) 1

Saturday’s loss in the Bay was both better and worse than I expected. On one hand, our defense was ripped apart by Brock Purdy and the secondary had one of its worst games of the year. On the other hand, Chase Young looked very good in his return, making the immediate impact that I knew he would. On yet another hand, the offense moved the ball pretty decently on a great defense highlighted by the continued tremendous play of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. And on one final hand, Taylor Heinicke pulled off his usual shenanigans to singlehandedly lose us the game, featuring awful throws and negative pocket presence en route to being benched for Carson Wentz, making this whole season come full circle. I don’t know what to expect moving forward, but I have a feeling that Wentz will be under center in the final two games. It just feels like he gives us a better shot to win at this point. I’m not complaining; I’ve been waiting for Heinicke’s demise for over a year now. I’m just glad it’s finally here.

16 – Panthers (6-9) 8

This team is winning the NFC South. I’ve seen enough. They are playing such inspired football right now, and I think they’re going to beat the lifeless Bucs this week. They run the ball so well, only relying on Sam Darnold to make a few key throws in a game, and let their defense do the rest. It’s the perfect formula for a team with this makeup from top to bottom. I love the way they play and I love watching them play, and I genuinely can’t wait to see them in the playoffs.

17 – Packers (7-8) 3

I guess they’re actually back. The Packers have won three in a row and now sit in a golden position to sneak their way into the playoffs. Despite that, I think the media needs to calm down when it comes to decreeing this team as anything greater than average. They haven’t beaten the toughest teams in this win streak, and there are still a plethora of flaws with the roster. The run game is a struggle bus and the injury to Christian Watson isn’t exactly inspiring. Aaron Rodgers is playing pretty well, but those performances have come against JV defenses. Even if they sneak into the dance, they’re going to get smacked by San Francisco yet again. It’ll be a very rude awakening. But it’s a nice story that the media will milk for weeks because this is the Green Bay Packers.

18 – Steelers (7-8) 5

I never say this, but I’m really happy for the Steelers. Saturday night’s win was such an inspiring, awesome sight, and I was elated when they won the game in the final seconds. I know Franco was too. Pittsburgh is playing some very solid football as of late, and perhaps we shouldn’t sleep on them as a potential Wild Card team. The defense can win any game for them despite the continued struggles of the offense. The last two games are difficult, physical divisional games, but I think that plays right into this team’s strengths. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won both.

19 – Raiders (6-9) 3

In the last three weeks, the Raiders have lost two games they simply had no business losing. The Thursday night debacle against Baker Mayfield and the Rams was embarrassing, and this Saturday night’s offensive dud was perhaps the worst of the season. Josh Jacobs couldn’t get a damn thing going, and Davante Adams was limited to two catches for fifteen yards. 2 for 15. This is one of the best players in the NFL we’re talking about! The offensive shortcomings have been the Raiders’ undoing all year long, and it has officially buried them. It’s a shame for a team that’s so talented. But I shouldn’t expect anything different from this franchise.

20 – Buccaneers (7-8) 2

The Buccaneers beat an awful team starting a 3rd string QB in overtime on Sunday night. And this is supposed to move the needle? Not to me. With every passing week, I feel worse and worse about the Bucs, and I am now extremely confident that the Panthers will beat them this week and jump them to make the postseason. This team really has no life and no heart. They are immensely boring and flat for sixty minutes every single week. They rely on a few key plays by their defense and Tom Brady to escape with close win after close win. It’s not a winning formula and it won’t fly against teams that are better than the likes of Arizona and New Orleans. You’ll all see in a week’s time.

21 – Seahawks (7-8) 4

We can officially stick a fork in the 2022 Seahawks. While I’d usually be very happy about this, I actually feel for Geno Smith and the guys. This was a super fun team for most of the season that has simply lost itself and fallen apart on both sides of the ball down the stretch. There’s not much more that needs to be said. I have no doubt that the young core of this team will keep them competitive in the years to come, but all eyes now turn to this offseason, which should be very interesting to monitor.

22 – Patriots (7-8) 1

The Patriots were invisible on both sides of the ball in the first half on Saturday and used a few ridiculous plays to get back in the game in the second half, then literally handed the game away when they could have won it. If that’s not a microcosm of this season in New England, I don’t know what is. This team is essentially dead and buried, and I’d be shocked if they put together a run to the postseason. The defense is still solid, but the offense is anything but, and Mac Jones has quickly become a very bad QB who only excels at making dirty plays. For that reason alone, I’m praying on this team’s downfall.

23 – Titans (7-8) 5

Unfortunately for the Titans, the season has come full circle. After Week 2, I decreed that this team was cooked and that it was time to blow it up and start over. They played very well over the next two months, but they have now lost a whopping five games in a row to lose their grip on the division and slip out of the playoff race. It was over, then they were back, and now it’s very much over. It’s hard to win with a project backup QB in Malik Willis, but they were falling apart even before Ryan Tannehill’s injury. Both sides of the ball are just boring and ineffective outside of a few stars like Derrick Henry and Jeffery Simmons. They’re essentially just the Buccaneers of the AFC. Like Tampa, this team is crashing out of the playoffs while the young, fun, jungle cat team wins the division.

24 – Saints (6-9) 3

For the Saints to go up north to sub-zero Cleveland and win a game with their physicality and execution on both sides of the ball says a lot about the fight of this team. They’re not good and they were in a less than desirable situation, but they played tough, physical football against a solid team on the road. Good for them. They could’ve used some performances like that if they wanted to somehow win this division, but I suppose it’s better late than never.

25 – Browns (6-9) 6

Man, this team is embarrassing. To lose like that at home against a team with virtually no life is just sad. The Browns’ lackluster offense played perhaps their worst game yet, Deshaun Watson was nothing short of dreadful, and while the defense did its thing, it didn’t matter. They gave up more points than they were allowed to with the offense being as awful as it is. It’s a sad situation, but I think everyone outside of Cleveland is pretty happy with this. You reap what you sow.

26 – Rams (5-10) 4

Good for the Rams to get another feel-good win at home. Baker Mayfield played some shockingly great football and the defense absolutely bullied the anemic Broncos from start to finish. It was perhaps the most inspired performance by this team all year long. Like I said after their comeback two weeks ago, they should feel good about themselves for now. Because the second you take a look into the future of this team, it gets pretty grim.

27 – Falcons (5-10) 2

I don’t want to talk about this team. Like, ever. They don’t deserve it. There’s simply nothing to talk about. They are boring and lifeless and simply putrid.

28 – Cardinals (4-11)

The Cards put up a solid fight on Christmas night against Tom Brady and the Bucs, and perhaps they could’ve won if they were just a little bit better. But at the end of the day, a loss benefits this team much more than a win does. As I’ve been saying for weeks, this team is headed towards cleaning house and starting over, and losses like this help move towards a more fruitful rebuild.

29 – Colts (4-10-1)

I thought the Colts would be competitive on Monday night. I was wrong. Nick Foles was awful as the starting QB, and while the defense had some nice moments, it simply wasn’t enough in the end. The offense is just shambolic no matter who starts at QB. I have no idea what the future of this franchise is going to look like, but they need to pour all of their resources into finding the right coach and QB as they head into 2023.

30 – Broncos (4-11) 4

Sunday’s loss was one of the most embarrassing things I’ve ever seen. Nathaniel Hackett’s shortlived 16-week tenure in Denver was one of the most embarrassing things I’ve ever seen. Russell Wilson is one of the most embarrassing things I’ve ever seen. This has been one of the most disastrous seasons I can remember for a team. And I am still loving every damn second of it.

31 – Texans (2-12-1) 1

Good for the Texans to get that elusive second win of the season. They deserve it after the way they’ve played in the last few weeks. They kept on fighting and fighting and it finally paid off with a very solid road win against a tough divisional opponent. And they didn’t directly jeopardize the #1 pick in the process! This might’ve been the best week for this team in the last three years!

32 – Bears (3-12) 1

I truly believe this is the worst team in the league. They simply don’t have the fight that Houston does, although they just so happen to have a better record. But that came from meaningless close wins in the beginning of the year. Now, this team is just lifeless and an eye sore. The offensive injuries have this team playing guys off the street and it shows in a massive way. It is no secret that the Bears have plenty of nice pieces and are in a great spot moving forward, but this has to be as bad as it gets for any team that’s in a rebuild.

All stats taken from ESPN.

Week 16 Picks

The Christmas weekend slate is more naughty than nice, but this week still has plenty of potential with some pivotal matchups as the playoff picture continues to take shape.

Cover photo taken from Sporting News.

Last Week: 13-3

Season Total: 141-80-2

Jaguars 23-16 Jets

Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video

These teams are trending in completely different directions. With Zach Wilson starting again for the Jets, they are going nowhere fast and crashing out of the playoffs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are primed to make a push for the division title, and a massive win on primetime would go a long way in getting there. This is going to be a very tough road test for them against a stout New York defense, but I have the utmost faith in Trevor Lawrence to get the job done. He has been one of the best QBs in the league in the last couple of months, and I think he’s going to put together another great game en route to a victory. He might not put up the biggest numbers in the world, but it won’t be necessary. There’s a better chance than not that Zach Wilson just hands Jacksonville this game on a silver platter.

Bills 27-19 Bears

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Bears have been the same team for several weeks now. They’re competitive thanks to Justin Fields’ dominance and they play everyone close, but they never win. That’s pretty much what I expect to see happen again on Sunday. The Bills are definitely good enough to put away a team like Chicago early, but for some reason, the Bears love hanging around, making them such a difficult team to bet. But there’s no way they win this game, so that makes the straight up pick significantly easier.

Browns 16-10 Saints

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Have you guys seen the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday? It’s going to be frigid, snowy, and ugly. Just take the under in this game and call it a day. In conditions like that, I have to trust the more physical team with a better run game, which is very clearly the Browns. The Saints can definitely push teams around on their best day, but they don’t have many of those nowadays. I do think this game will be extremely competitive as both teams have something to play for, with the Browns still in Wild Card contention and the Saints just a game out of first place in the division. I just like the Browns defense more, and at home, in the awful conditions, I just see Cleveland running it down New Orleans’ battered defense’s throat all game long to eke out a close, hard-fought victory.

Titans 23-17 Texans

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is gross. I want no part of this. I was this close to picking the Texans to win this game, considering how close they played Tennessee in their first matchup. While the Titans keep falling apart, I just don’t think they’re going to stoop that low. This is going to be a tough battle from start to finish for both teams, and I wouldn’t really be shocked if the Texans came away with the win. I just find it too difficult to pick against Tennessee in a spot like this. They need a win desperately, and this is a golden opportunity for them to get one at home.

Chiefs 31-20 Seahawks

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

On paper, this might seem like it could be a super entertaining shootout at Arrowhead. While I think plenty of points will be scored, “shootout” seems like a bit of a stretch. While I hate the Chiefs pass defense, the Seahawks are struggling mightily on offense. This is a golden opportunity for them to get back on track, but it’s not easy to do that on the road against Kansas City. Regardless of how their offense performs, I just don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. He has had to carry them on his back in recent weeks, but I think they can get it going again at home after a couple of tough road games. If Seattle looks like the team we saw a few weeks ago, then they have a great chance at pulling this upset. I just don’t see that happening in a spot like this.

Vikings 26-23 Giants

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Vikings let everyone hang around. They are incapable of winning a game convincingly. So this will naturally be close. But they are the better team and will win this game late, as they always do.

Bengals 24-20 Patriots

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Everyone, including me, thinks this game is going to be close. But I really don’t have a reason why. Going on the road to play the Patriots no longer poses the threat it did when I was growing up, and while their defense is very solid, they aren’t particularly good on offense. The Bengals are great on both sides of the ball and are one of the most complete teams in the league. By all means, they should blow the Pats out of the water. But going on the road in this league is difficult, no matter who you play. After the embarrassing loss last week, it only feels right that New England will hang around in this game. I don’t think they have it in them to get over the top and pull off what would be a mammoth upset to drastically alter the trajectory of the seasons of both of these teams, but they’re not going to go down without a fight.

Lions 20-17 Panthers

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to predict. Once again, the Lions are on the road against a feisty defense in a matchup that they could easily lose. Last week, it was the late-game execution of their offense which got the job done, and I don’t see why they can’t do that again. But what I’m looking forward to seeing in this game is their defensive performance. The Panthers couldn’t run the ball whatsoever last week, putting the game in the hands of Sam Darnold, which was obviously a disaster. If the Lions can replicate that, then this one really shouldn’t be close. The problem is that the Lions have the seventh worst run defense in the league. Carolina will be able to establish the run game and run their offense, so it will come down to whichever offense out-executes the other. It’s hard to pick against the Lions in that regard. Moreover, I just can’t pick Sam Darnold again. I do think the Panthers have a great shot to win this one, but I learned my mistake last week and will not make it.

Ravens 13-10 Falcons

Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Ravens are still without Lamar Jackson, meaning Tyler Huntley will start once again in what should be one of the uglier games of the year on Sunday in Baltimore. There might not be 200 combined passing yards in this game between Huntley and Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder. It’s going to be a lot of running and a lot of defense for sixty minutes; think of a repeat of the Broncos-Titans game from a few months ago. Like the Browns-Saints game, I think this comes down to the better run game and defense, which both lie with the Ravens. With JK Dobbins back, their run game can hurt you in a multitude of ways, and I don’t see a rookie QB being one to break their defense. It’s going to be close and a disaster to watch, but I have no doubt that Baltimore will pull this out.

49ers 23-10 Commanders

Saturday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

This is probably our toughest game of the season. We were able to go on the road and beat the undefeated Eagles in primetime, but this feels different. Many think the 49ers are better than Philly, and playing their defense is a recipe for disaster, especially with #4 under center. I can already see the multitude of turnovers that he’s going to commit as the offense stays in quicksand for sixty minutes. It feels like San Francisco won’t really have to do that much on either side of the ball to come away with a win here. They’ll have their hands full with our defense, but they might put up more points with their own defense, so it simply will not matter. My only hope is that we can bounce back from this inevitable loss well and close out the season with two strong games at home. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Eagles 27-24 Cowboys

Saturday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

I know what you’re thinking. How can I pick Gardner Minshew to beat the Cowboys on the road? Well, my answer is pretty simple. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFL across the board, so a backup QB with multiple years in the system can probably step in and execute pretty well. Also, let’s not act like Minshew is a bum. He’s a solid player and he can certainly operate this offense effectively. The Eagles know what’s on the line; they clinch the division and 1 seed with a win. They’re going to come out and play inspired football on both sides of the ball despite the injury to Jalen Hurts. Moreover, this just feels like such a typical Cowboys loss, especially when you consider the trajectory of this team right now. They struggled mightily with the Texans at home and got embarrassed by the Jags last week. People might think they’re going to seize this opportunity to beat a backup QB and keep on pushing for a division title. But that’s not going to happen. Minshew won’t have to do much as his run game and defense carries the Birds to a win and a clinching of the best record in the NFC.

Steelers 23-20 Raiders

Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network

The tragedy of Franco Harris’ death right before this game can’t be put into words. This game would have been a celebration of one of the most iconic moments in football history as the 50th anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, and Harris would’ve rightfully been honored very well. I’m sure the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh will do everything they can to honor him in a different way. It’s truly an immeasurable loss, and he will be severely missed. It’s hard to even talk about this game because of that. I think Pittsburgh would have been my pick regardless. I like the way they looked last week in Carolina, especially defensively. I do think they will struggle with defending Davante Adams, but if they can replicate their performance against the run to limit Josh Jacobs, then all they have to do is execute their offense with little to no mistakes, and they’ll be fine, regardless of who starts under center.

Dolphins 30-20 Packers

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

This is certainly the best game on Christmas, but the bar is extremely low. This isn’t even that good of a game on paper. By all means, the Dolphins should have their way with the Packers. Their passing game should thrive back at home against a porous defense, and their own defense shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Green Bay’s mixed bag of an offense. I’m expecting a massive day from the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo against the softest secondary they’ve played in a month.

Broncos 17-16 Rams

Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, CBS

It’s really a cruel joke that the NFL’s Christmas present to its fans is this game. Nobody wants any part of this disgusting game between two of the worst teams in the league. This is one of those picks that I just drop here and move on. The only thing I know is that Baker Mayfield is going to struggle mightily against that Broncos defense. That’s the key matchup in this game, and that’s why I’m taking Denver to win.

Buccaneers 24-9 Cardinals

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

There’s really not much to say here. The Cardinals are starting their third string QB in Trace McSorley in primetime against a tough Bucs defense. Despite the memes, everyone knows he’s not very good. It’s hard to envision another 3rd stringer beating Tom Brady this season. Even in a tough road environment in primetime, I think the Buccaneers will dominate from start to finish. They need to string together some good performances if they want to hold onto this division lead, and this is a great chance for them to strengthen their grip at the top. I’d be truly shocked if they let this one slip.

Chargers 23-20 Colts

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

Like the Texans and Bears, the Colts are a team that plays everyone close for some reason, but never comes away with wins. Giving up the largest comeback in the history of professional football after their star RB suffered a season-ending injury last week can’t be good for their morale. Perhaps that’s why they’re making yet another QB change, this time starting Nick Foles over Matt Ryan. I don’t know what to expect from Foles in the year of our lord 2022, but I know Indianapolis has it in them to compete at home, and I know that a Team like the Chargers will certainly let them hang around. But I’m not picking against LA right now. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, and nobody wants to see them now that they’re getting healthy. Justin Herbert will make the plays he needs to for the Chargers to win this game.

All stats taken from ESPN.