Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

The AFC is undergoing an incredible youth movement. The likes of Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and more are all gone. The conference now belongs to names like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and more. This was on display last year, where the conference flexed its depth for a tremendous season en route to a sensational playoffs that saw the Bengals of all teams make the Super Bowl. The offseason that followed was one of the most wild and wacky we’ve ever seen, and it makes things even more fascinating in the better of the two NFL conferences. If 2022 is anything like its predecessor, truly anything can happen. Let’s preview how it’ll play out.

AFC East

1st: Buffalo Bills (15-2)

Last year, I picked the Bills to win the AFC East with this exact same record. They accomplished the more important of those two things by winning the division and were 13 short seconds away from hosting the AFC Championship Game. Alas, it was not meant to be. Perhaps now it is. The Bills have a fire lit under them after last year’s shortcomings, where they felt like they were robbed of a shot at the Super Bowl. Josh Allen showed us all that he is a top tier, MVP-caliber QB in this league. The offense remains stacked with the established Stefon Diggs and 2021 breakout Gabe Davis at receiver. The reigning #1 defense is back and ready to silence the doubters after last year’s failure against the Chiefs. Adding Von Miller to the mix definitely helps. Simply put, this team was fantastic last year and are even better on paper this year. They’re the Super Bowl favorite for a reason. The only thing stopping them from getting their hands on the Lombardi Trophy for the first time is themselves.

2nd: Miami Dolphins (9-8)

The Dolphins made all the right moves this offseason. Bringing in the offensive guru Mike McDaniel as the new head coach makes for an admittedly interesting scheme. They kept their great defense intact, especially by extending star CB Xavien Howard. The obvious highlight was trading for WR Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs, providing the offense with a bonafide superstar to bring a new level to the unit. Pairing him up with Jaylen Waddle makes for one of the more fascinating, explosive WR duos in all of football. However, the main concern that holds this team back resides with who throws them the ball. Tua Tagovailoa simply hasn’t lived up to the hype in his short NFL career. The clock is ticking, and time is slowly running out on him. It has to work this year for Tua, or he will be replaced with swiftness. He makes or breaks this team, and the way I see it, he’s not good enough to get them over the hump. Unless he figures it out, the Dolphins are restricted by his abilities, or lack thereof, and I don’t see them making the playoffs because of that.

3rd: New England Patriots (8-9)

For the second straight year, I’m not entirely sure what the Patriots are trying to do. This is a team that reached a very high peak last year, but eventually came undone and ended their season with an embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. And they haven’t done much to get better. This is essentially the same team as last year minus some key pieces, namely ballhawk CB J.C. Jackson, who left in free agency. Mac Jones had a promising rookie year at QB and is likely going to get better, but the weapons on this team don’t inspire a lot of confidence. The defense is still solid, but nothing special, especially without their INT machine. This is just a run-of-the-mill, middle-of-the-pack football team, through and through. I don’t see how they make the playoffs as the third best team in their own division in a conference as deep as the AFC is.

4th: New York Jets (4-13)

I’ll say this about the Jets. I do think they’re getting better. I like the direction this team is headed in. I thought they had a tremendous draft, adding offensive pieces like WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall as well as defensive studs in CB Sauce Gardner and DE Jermaine Johnson. The rebuild is seemingly going well, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be good in the immediate future. Zach Wilson is still a big question mark, and dealing with a bone bruise in his knee from this preseason isn’t a good sign. Whether it’s him or Joe Flacco under center, this team won’t be winning too many games this season. The defense is still below average and the offense is still lacking in several areas, but the aforementioned rookies might help with that. If Wilson comes back and shows a huge leap from his rookie year, then maybe the Jets can win 6-7 games. But I don’t have that level of faith in him or this team.

AFC North

1st: Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

The Bengals were the surprise team of last year, and my Team Of The Year in my season retrospective. They were awesome all season long en route to a Super Bowl appearance and a near victory. The question on everyone’s mind is, will they be able to run it back? History doesn’t favor young teams who lose Super Bowls. However, Cincinnati can say with confidence that they improved this offseason. You can argue that the offensive line is the reason they couldn’t win a championship, so they bolstered it with guys like Alex Cappa and La’el Collins. The defense remains intact after dominating the postseason. The offense is still stacked with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. And the beloved Joe Burrow is still the QB. By all means, the Bengals are a better team than the one that just won the AFC. At the very minimum, they should find themselves back on top of the division.

2nd: Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

Even with questions circling this team like vultures, the Ravens feel primed to bounce back from a disappointing 2021. It helps that key players aren’t dropping like flies like they were last preseason. J.K. Dobbins is back in the backfield after missing all of last year with an ACL tear, and that gives this offense a massive boost. Even with one of the worse WR groups in football, the load will be taken off Lamar Jackson’s shoulders as he continues to prove to the organization why he deserves a massive payday. He’ll still have a great TE duo to throw to with the established Mark Williams and the blooming rookie Isaiah Likely. The offensive line should be better as well with big time acquisitions like Morgan Moses from the Jets and Tyler Linderbaum in the draft. Perhaps the most important part of the offseason in Baltimore was bolstering their defense. I already liked the front seven a lot. Signing Marcus Williams and drafting Kyle Hamilton is sure to help the defensive backfield. The corners are still a little suspect, but at their best, guys like Kyle Fuller, Marlon Humphrey, and Marcus Peters can lock down anyone. I think the Ravens improved everywhere they needed to, and the pure talent and great coaching should get them to the playoffs. It all comes down to Lamar, as it so often does, but I have a ton of faith in him. The organization, on the other hand, might not.

3rd: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)

In the nicest way possible, the Steelers might be the most mid team in the NFL. They finally decided to name a starting QB, and it’s Mitch Trubisky for some reason. I have no doubt that first round pick and hometown kid Kenny Pickett will be starting under center sooner rather than later, but I would’ve given him the reins from the start, especially when you look at how strong of a preseason he had. Regardless, it’s not the QB position that makes this team so average. In fact, from a distance, you might think the rest of the team is actually really good. I wouldn’t fault you for that. Pittsburgh has great skill players, from Najee Harris in the backfield to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and emerging rookie George Pickens outside. The defense is also loaded with All-Pros like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Heyward as well as reigning DPOY T.J. Watt. However, a few stars on each side of the ball is not good enough to be great in this league. The rest of the defense is pretty bad, especially in the secondary. More importantly, the Steelers offensive line might be the worst in football, which has been on display for the last two years now. They cannot run the ball and have to rely on quick passes to ensure that they don’t allow 10 sacks every game. They just refuse to get better in that regard, and I don’t trust any team without a functioning OL. Combine that with a pretty tough schedule, and I don’t see the Steelers returning to the playoffs. I might actually be being a bit generous by giving them a winning record, but I just think they’ll have a little more juice once Pickett is the starter. Hopefully that’s soon, for their sake.

4th: Cleveland Browns (4-13)

Oh, Cleveland. Only you could go from decades of disfunction and turmoil to relevance and being a fan favorite only to throw it all away by becoming a symbol of disgracefulness. Only you would be the only team to not just go near Deshaun Watson, not just trade your future for him, but give him a $230 million contract, fully guaranteed. Only you. It’s safe to say the entire league will be rooting against the Browns this year, even with Watson being suspended for the first 11 games. That bias is not why I have Cleveland finishing with 4 wins. Well, not entirely. I do think this is a solid roster, but without a competent QB for 65% of the season, I refuse to put any faith in them. The offense is still loaded with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running behind arguably football’s best offensive line as well as Donovan Peoples-Jones and newcomers Amari Cooper and David Bell catching passes. The defense is essentially the same as last year’s, which isn’t a bad thing by any means. Myles Garrett is one of the sport’s premier players, Jadeveon Clowney has found new life in Cleveland, and young guys like Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah make the front seven a bonafide unit. The secondary is better than you might think, with Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit, and Greedy Williams locking things down. Greg Newsome also showed flashes last year of becoming the player they hoped by drafting him in the first round. On top of all that, signing John Johnson III from the Rams was one of the more underrated moves of the offseason in my opinion. Despite all of this, the Browns are suffering the consequences of selling their souls. I initially gave them a better record than this, but I don’t mind docking them wins at all. They dug themselves this hole. They made their bed, and now they must lay in it.

AFC South

1st: Tennessee Titans (9-8)

Welcome to the NFL’s worst division, where the winner could very feasibly be below .500. I’m giving the defending champs the benefit of the doubt, and for good reason. For starters, the Titans have been consistently viable for several years now, and they always find a way to shock me. They were dominant throughout last year, both with and without Derrick Henry, and that got them the AFC’s 1 seed (yeah, I forgot about that too). It may have ended unceremoniously, but I’m not going to sit here and act like this isn’t a good team. However, there are still questions. The biggest one lies where they made the biggest change this offseason. Trading their elite and best WR in A.J. Brown for the right to draft Treylon Burks as his replacement was a decision that I disliked on draft night. My opinion on that has not changed. Their best bet was to pay Brown instead of investing in a rookie, and their refusal to do so has left them with one of the league’s worst WR groups. I liked the acquisition of Robert Woods, but I just don’t know how effective he can be coming off an ACL tear. The offense should still be fine as long as King Henry is running the ball, but last year was the indicator that they are not a true contender with Ryan Tannehill at QB. That’s why I loved the move to draft Malik Willis, who flashed in the preseason. I would love to see him get a shot this season, but if not, there’s still no doubt that he’s their guy moving forward. Tennessee’s defense is still loaded with one of football’s best defensive lines and an emerging secondary, but again, last year showed that they can’t do it on their own. Seriously, how do you sack a QB nine times in a playoff game and still lose? All in all, I think this is a worse team than last year, but I do believe they’re still the best team in this division. Whether or not they can exceed their potential is entirely up to them.

2nd: Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

It might not be an understatement to say that the Colts were the most disappointing team of 2021. Not in the sense that we expected them to be great and they failed, but more that they were great and then they failed. At a point last year, you could have argued that Indy was the best team in the AFC. Jonathan Taylor was running like an MVP candidate, Carson Wentz was slinging the ball with effectiveness, and the defense was truly elite. Then Wentz did that thing he always does and they lost their last two games including the embarrassment of the decade against the worst team in football in the finale to miss the playoffs entirely. Thus prompted the change at the QB position, as the Colts traded Wentz away to Washington and brought in the solid veteran Matt Ryan from the Falcons. I personally believe this is an upgrade for the Colts, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to make amends for last year’s failure. Even with an upgrade under center and perhaps the best RB in the league in the backfield, this offense has questions. The WR group is not great outside of Michael Pittman Jr., so they have to be cautious not to run JT into the ground. I do really like this defense, as they boast one of the NFL’s best front sevens and an upgraded secondary, which was already pretty good. Bringing in guys like Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore make this a better unit than it was in 2021. Still, it’s hard to put my faith in the Colts after last year. I think they’ll be neck and neck with the Titans for the division title all year long, but I’ll give the edge to the team that proved it last season.

3rd: Jacksonville Jaguars (3-14)

You know, I actually think I’m being a bit mean to the Jaguars. This was football’s worst team in 2021, but I genuinely think they improved a lot this offseason. For starters, it can’t get any worse than it was with Urban Meyer at the helm. I think the move to hire Doug Pederson as head coach was a very good one, especially as they continue to develop Trevor Lawrence into the franchise QB that we all know he can be. They improved the offensive line and receiving corps to help Lawrence out by signing All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff from Washington as well as pass-catchers like Zay Jones and Christian Kirk, who got one of the most puzzling deals I’ve ever seen. Lawrence also gets his college buddy Travis Etienne back in the backfield after missing all of his rookie season with a foot injury, and I think it’ll do wonders for this offense. I have extremely high hopes for Etienne, and if he can remain healthy, then he can truly be a difference maker. The defense still isn’t ideal, but like the offense, they made some nice pickups this summer. Signing tackle machine Foye Aluokun from Atlanta locks down the middle of the defense and bringing in Darious Williams from the Rams gives them their CB1 that has been lacking since they lost Jalen Ramsey. They emphasized that side of the ball further in the draft, most notably by taking Travon Walker with the #1 overall pick and LB Devin Lloyd later in the first round. Walker is an athletic freak with an infinitely high ceiling, and Lloyd is a solid, pro-ready linebacker. These two can make instant impacts in this league, but they could just as easily fizzle out into bust territory. It’s up to this organization to make sure that they, along with all their other young counterparts, become the players that can make the Jaguars an actual football team again.

4th: Houston Texans (3-14)

I’ll give them credit. I said the Texans would be the worst team in football last year, and they were only the third worst. Way to make me eat crow, Houston! It’s not enough to save you from being the worst team in the AFC this year, though. Unlike their division counterparts, I don’t think the Texans got any better this offseason. They’re essentially running back the same offense as last year, which wasn’t great. They were one of the worst passing offenses and the worst rushing offense in 2021, and the only new acquisition in any of those areas is rookie RB Dameon Pierce, a fourth round pick. Davis Mills is still the QB, and while I don’t think he’s horrible, I don’t think he’s going to be anything special in this league. The WR duo of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins isn’t the worst I’ve ever seen, but it’s not exactly elite. Most importantly, Houston’s defense is genuinely dreadful. It’s unfathomably bad, and will likely be the worst in the NFL this season, statistically speaking. I did like the draft acquisitions of Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre to help out the secondary, but it’ll be a while before they’re playing alongside competent players. The only area I can say they truly got better is with draft stock, as they finally traded Deshaun Watson and got three first round picks in the deal. 3 wins might be a stretch for this team. They are firmly set in the #1 overall pick sweepstakes.

AFC West

1st: Los Angeles Chargers (14-3)

Welcome to the NFL’s best division, where every team could very feasibly be above .500. There are storylines galore in the Wild West this year, and it’s going to be a treat to watch them all unfold. We start with the Chargers, who had a very Chargers-like 2021 season that ended with the most insane loss in even more insane circumstances that kept them out of the playoffs. LA knows they have a solid roster with a generational QB, but they also knew had to get better to become a true contender. They did that and then some en route to perhaps the best offseason of any team this year. The offense is largely the same, which is perfectly fine considering Justin Herbert is throwing the ball. Herbert is a top 5 QB in my opinion, and could be in for an MVP season. Austin Ekeler is a bonafide Swiss army knife out of the backfield, and the WR trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer is as good as you could ask for. They found a franchise LT in Rashawn Slater and further bolstered the line by taking guard Zion Johnson with their first round pick. But, the offense isn’t what held them back last season. It was the inexplicable incompetence of the other side of the ball that kept them from greatness. The defensive line was solid, but the linebacking core was awful, so they went out and snagged Khalil Mack from the Bears. The corners couldn’t cover a bed or force turnovers, so they brought in INT machine J.C. Jackson from the Patriots, making for a very interesting duo with Asante Samuel Jr. They gave star safety Derwin James a monster deal to help lock down the defensive backfield alongside the very solid Nasir Adderley. This team improved in every area they needed to, and their Super Bowl potential is at an all time high. It helps that the perennial powerhouse of the Chiefs was hit in a massive way this offseason. In the second year under HC Brandon Staley, I expect the Chargers to finally explode en route to one of the best seasons in the league this year. Anything short of that should be considered a failure.

2nd: Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

As I just mentioned, Kansas City was weakened in a big way this offseason. Trading Tyreek Hill may have been a necessary move to save cap and ensure solid draft picks for the next few years, but it means losing the most dynamic and irreplaceable WRs in the NFL. It removes the explosive potential of the offense, which is what their identity has been in the Patrick Mahomes era. Yes, Mahomes is still under center and Travis Kelce is still the best tight end in football, but one of the heads has been cut off the three-headed monster. I don’t see two more growing back. FA signings like Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will ensure this passing offense doesn’t disappear entirely, but it’s going to be a lot more old school and methodical than it was before. However, if the preseason is any indication, then the Chiefs can execute that to perfection. Mahomes is still going to be slinging it and getting his numbers, it just won’t be as flashy as it was before. I still really like this defense outside of some pieces in the secondary, but drafting Trent McDuffie could help that if he develops into a solid player. I just think the Chiefs are still too solid to be anything but a playoff team. I trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid more than any other QB-HC duo in the league. As long as they’re in Kansas City, this is a playoff team.

3rd: Denver Broncos (10-7)

I’m not going to say it, I promise. The Broncos had one of the more notable offseasons in the NFL, highlighted by the acquisition of Russell Wilson from the Seahawks for one of the largest packages in history. They’re going all in, and for good reason. This was one of the league’s best, young rosters on both sides of the ball. All they needed was a QB to right the ship and lead them to greatness. Russ is a pretty good guy for the job. I love the fit in Denver, and I love what they have going on around him. Javonte Williams is one of the best young RBs in football, and pass-catchers like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam have been waiting to break out. The defense is probably even better than the offense with a tremendous front seven headlined by Bradley Chubb and newcomer Randy Gregory and a sensational secondary with young stars like Pat Surtain II and the freshly-paid Justin Simmons. From top to bottom, this is one of the best rosters in football. So, why only ten wins? Well, it’s a very tough schedule, and it’s hard to assume that the Broncos will immediately be good with a brand new QB in Russ and HC in Nathaniel Hackett. I don’t know how much I buy Hackett as a head coach, and until he proves that he can get it done, I can’t go all in on this team. However, I still believe this is a playoff squad, and while their floor might be 7 or 8 wins, their ceiling is a Super Bowl.

4th: Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)

Let’s break this down for a second. It may have been by the skin of their teeth, but the Raiders were a playoff team in 2021 despite perhaps the most turmoil and internal dysfunction of any team in the league, nearly won a playoff game, and got better this offseason. So, why are they a last place, non-playoff team now? Well, it doesn’t help that the rest of the division is as good as it is. But it’s always just so hard to put any faith in this team. I do love the offseason they had, highlighted by the acquisition of football’s best WR in Davante Adams from the Packers, reuniting him with his college QB Derek Carr. This offense already had solid weapons like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow led by a QB that’s better than most people think, but adding Adams gives them one of the best units in the league. I also think the signing of Chandler Jones was one of the more under-the-radar moves of the offseason, as the duo of him and Maxx Crosby coming off the edges makes for one of the best pass rushing tandems in the league. However, like several other teams, a few stars here and there are not enough to make a team great. In the case of the Raiders, most of the rest of the team is straight up bad. This is arguably the worst offensive line in the league that just saw former first-round tackle Alex Leatherwood cut after just 2 seasons. They cannot run the ball, and it doesn’t help that the wheels are seemingly coming off of RB Josh Jacobs. And while I like the front seven, the secondary is laughably bad. In a division and conference as good as this, I don’t see the Raiders being able to compete at a high level. I think their talent is more than good enough to put up numbers and win more games than they’ll lose, but the massive holes in the roster will drag them down and keep them outside of the playoffs.

Playoff Picture

1 – Buffalo Bills (15-2)

2 – Los Angeles Chargers (14-3)

3 – Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

4 – Tennessee Titans (9-8)

5 – Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

6 – Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

7 – Denver Broncos (10-7)

There’s always plenty of shakeups in the playoffs from season to season, and I see three newcomers to the dance this year in Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Denver. Teams like Las Vegas, Indianapolis, and Miami have a great chance to sneak in, but I trust the teams I have here much more. A playoff field this stacked should make for some very entertaining games. It’ll be hard to top last postseason, but let’s see how this one will play out.

Wild Card Weekend

With the Bills getting the bye, the 2v7 game is an intriguing division matchup between the Chargers and Broncos. I have the utmost faith in Los Angeles this year, and while I like what Denver has going on, I don’t know if I trust them in a spot like this against a team as solid as the Chargers are. I’d say the Bolts pull away for a late win and finally get Justin Herbert into the deep playoffs.

The 3v6 game is another divisional battle with the Ravens going up to Cincinnati. Last year, the Bengals absolutely shredded Baltimore twice. I think the Ravens have an improved secondary, but it’s hard to imagine that Cincy would find themselves losing this one, especially at home. It might not be a blowout, but I can see a comfortable win for Joe Burrow and company. And the narratives around Lamar Jackson in the playoffs reach their apex.

The 4v5 game shapes up to be a slugfest between two of the more established AFC powers in the Titans and Chiefs. Simply put, I don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, but I do think this game would be very close. Tennessee always manages to give Kansas City fits, and they could sneak their way to victory in this one. But with Mahomes, it feels impossible to pick against the Chiefs.

Divisional Round

The Bills come off their bye and host the Chiefs in the revenge game of the century. Buffalo feels as though they were robbed in last year’s classic in Kansas City, and it’s hard to believe the fire lit under them won’t be blazing in the frigid cold at Orchard Park in January. This is a team on a mission, and if part of the mission is to dispose of the team that ruined their season a year ago, they should be inspired to do it in a huge way. Even with the greatness of the Chiefs, how can I pick against the Bills?

The second divisional game sees a heavyweight clash of two of the best young QBs in football as Justin Herbert’s Chargers host Joe Burrow’s Bengals. The two 2020 first-round signal callers will be MVP candidates this year, and the teams around them are Super Bowl caliber. So, what’s the difference maker in a game like this? Is it home field advantage? In SoFi Stadium, no such thing exists. If it’s experience, then the edge has to go to Cincinnati, right? The answer is yes, but I just have way higher expectations for the Chargers than a home playoff exit. I think this would be an instant classic that sees LA come out on top, declaring themselves as a power in the league that’s here to stay.

AFC Championship Game

So, it’s a Bills-Chargers title game in Buffalo for the right to go to Arizona and Super Bowl LVII. Just thinking about it gets me excited. However, this game might not live up to the hype. For starters, it is not easy at all for a west coast team to come all the way out east and win a game in what could very well be below 0-degree temperatures. But moreover, I just see the Bills as a team on a mission. I don’t see who or what can stop them from exorcising their demons this season. They blow the Chargers out of the water and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the “Four Falls”, where they can put the narratives to bed once and for all and finally bring a title home to Buffalo.

This is going to be another truly special in the AFC, and I can’t wait to watch it all unfold. Regardless of what happens, I have no doubt that it will be a blast to watch. If I’m wrong in these predictions, then so be it. But if I’m right, you best bet that I’ll flex that for years to come.

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