Tag: AFC Championship

NFC and AFC Championship Picks

The NFL’s proverbial final four is upon us with a pair of incredible games to decide who goes to Las Vegas and Super Bowl LVIII. Here’s who I think gets it done today.

Cover photo taken from Deadline.

Last Week: 3-1

Season Total: 173-99

Chiefs 23-20 Ravens

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS

To make a rather long story short, you will never catch me picking against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. I learned that lesson the hard way last season. And I won’t make that same mistake here, no matter how tall the task.

The Ravens are excellent. They’re probably the best team in the league. They looked frighteningly good a week ago against Houston. Lamar Jackson is going to win MVP. And everyone on Earth is going to be supporting them today.

But it won’t matter when the NFL’s equivalent of the Terminator is on the other side.

If I’m being completely honest, I actually think the differentiating factor in this game is going to be the defenses. I’ve been singing the praises of the Kansas City D all year long, and for the most part, they’ve been outstanding this postseason.

Now, Baltimore has a patented elite defense of their own, but who do you trust more in a spot like this? The unit and coaching staff that has been here before and always finds a way? Or the one that’s having a great year but has to face #15 with the stakes being as high as possible?

Containing Lamar Jackson will be a difficult test, yes. But no matter how good he has been, I’ll need to see his defense stop Mahomes and the Chiefs offense — which has finally found its stride — to believe that the Ravens are winning this ballgame.

49ers 27-24 Lions

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX

I’ll start by saying that this spread is preposterous.

Yes, the 49ers are elite. They might just be the best team in the league. But the Lions are a damn good team, too. And they should not be 7.5-point underdogs, even on the road.

Regardless, there’s little to no doubt in my mind about the 49ers winning this game — and far fewer second thoughts than my pick for the AFC Championship Game.

I do believe the Lions have what it takes to win this game. Jared Goff and their offense has been operating at an extremely high level in this postseason and we all know Dan Campbell has the guts to win any game. I still worry about their defense, but they haven’t cost the team anything in the playoffs thus far. In fact, they’ve really shored up when they needed to, highlighted by their game-winning interception last week against Tampa. Still, I have some reservations there, especially against a remarkable San Francisco offense littered with talent.

Deebo Samuel being healthy in this game is the difference for me. If he was unable to go, I would have picked Detroit to go to the Super Bowl. He’s one of three distinct MVPs on that offense along with Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams. If any one of them couldn’t go, the 49ers aren’t the same team — we saw that earlier this year when Samuel and Williams missed time and the offense spiraled. We all know Brock Purdy can’t pick up the slack all on his own, but with a healthy Deebo, this offense will be firing on all cylinders against a lackluster Detroit defense. And that just might be the difference.

NFC and AFC Championship Picks

Championship Sunday is finally here with two titanic matchups to determine the matchup in Super Bowl LVII. Here are my picks to get to Glendale in two weeks’ time.

Cover photo taken from NBC Sports.

Last Week: 3-1

Season Total: 180-98-2

Eagles 23-20 49ers

Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, FOX

At the start of both the regular season and the playoffs, the 49ers were my pick to win the NFC. I said they were the best team in the conference, and I saw them getting to Glendale in two weeks’ time. But it feels much tougher to pick them now then it was a few weeks ago. That’s almost entirely due to how the Eagles looked last Saturday night against the Giants. After ending the regular season a bit battered and sluggish, I didn’t have a lot of faith in them to look like the team that ran circles around the league in the regular season. But they looked so much better than I could have anticipated. They look like a team on a mission. They are so damn explosive offensively, and their defense looked as good as it has all year long. Jalen Hurts’ injury is no longer a concern, and the Birds are back to looking terrifying on all fronts.

That being said, so are the Niners. They willed themselves to victory last Sunday against the Cowboys in a total team effort. It was really cool to watch. The defense was obviously remarkable and continues to be the unit that makes every difference in their games. But their weakest link has made itself apparent, and it’s Brock Purdy. He had his moments and made some nice throws last week, but he also got away with a lot that he likely won’t get away with on the road against the best defense he has ever played. If the Cowboys defense had any brains, they likely could have won the game off of those mistakes. I just don’t know what to expect out of Purdy in a spot like this. He has been a great story, but can he go on the road to an extremely hostile environment and win a playoff game against what could be the best team in the league to go to the Super Bowl? I have my doubts.

That’s one of two key matchups for me in this game; the other is in the trenches with San Francisco’s defensive front against the Eagles offensive line. Both of those units are the best in the league at their respective positions, and whoever gains the advantage will likely sway the game in the favor of their team. While I would give the edge to the Niners’ defense, I think Hurts and the offense can move around and still execute their game to put points on the board. The SF defense will get their game off as well, but does the offense have what it takes to keep up when they’re led by Brock Purdy in this spot? To a point, yes. They probably do. But I trust Jalen Hurts and the Eagles more to make the plays late to win the game. Purdy will make some mistakes, and the Birds will take advantage, even against San Francisco’s incredible defense. And they will fly all the way to Arizona.

Bengals 27-24 Chiefs

Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, CBS

At the start of the playoffs, the Bengals were my pick to win it all. I said they were the best team in the league, and I saw them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in two weeks time. Despite all the temptation in the world and so many signs to do so, I am not backing down on that now. But man, this is a hard pick on all fronts.

For starters, everyone and their mothers are backing the Bengals all of a sudden. Last week’s thumping of the Bills has everyone worshipping Joe Burrow and the rest of this team, and that makes it very difficult to pick them. Right in conjunction with that is all the doubt surrounding Patrick Mahomes after he sprained his ankle last week. This line got all the way down to Bengals -2.5 because of it. But we all know the truth. Patrick Mahomes on one leg is still better than most QBs in this league, and he will still play just fine in this game, hence the line moving back in the other direction to Chiefs -1.5. That “injury” isn’t what concerns me about the Chiefs at all. In fact, it kind of makes me more scared to pick against them. Mahomes will definitely be limited in terms of his mobility, but making him a pocket passer limits his mistakes and might make him even more surgical. Kansas City will get their game off on that side of the ball via the quick passing game. They won’t be erratic and so focused on downfield shots like Josh Allen and the Bills were last week. And I don’t know if Cincinnati will be able to stop that in Arrowhead.

On the other hand, I have no faith in KC’s ability to stop the Bengals offense. Everyone loves bringing up the stat that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs with three great performances, including in this very spot last year. He is just on another level in the playoffs, as is the rest of the offense. Even with the beat up offensive line, he gets the job done. In fact, the backups did their thing last week in Buffalo, pushing around that defense and opening up all sorts of possibilities for the run game. If they can replicate that performance against this Chiefs front, then the Bengals could have their way once again on offense. Even if they don’t, I have no doubt in the ability of the passing game to put up huge numbers and points as they always do against this secondary.

The biggest question is what Mahomes and the Chiefs offense can do in response to that. People forget that they were absolutely dominating for the first half of last year’s title game before inexplicably falling apart in the second half. That was a different offense, but this one might be even better. I find it extremely difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes in a spot like this, even on a bum ankle. But at this point, it might be harder to pick against Joe Burrow. All he does is win, and I have to see him lose to the Chiefs to believe that it’s even possible. When you combine that with the fact that I’ve been backing the Bengals for so long now and picked them to win the Super Bowl, I have to pick them in this game. It’s arduous, but necessary.

All stats taken from ESPN.