Category: picks

Week 8 Picks

It’s the week of byes intra-conference matchups as the NFL’s shortest slate to date features a number of high-profile NFC vs. AFC clashes in primetime and otherwise.

Cover photo taken from NBC Bay Area.

Last Week: 11-4

Season Total: 71-36-1

Vikings 23-20 Chargers

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Both defenses haven’t been at their best. Both quarterbacks haven’t been at their best. Both head coaches are trustworthy, but — let’s be honest — haven’t been at their best. What the heck is going to happen?

Honestly, I don’t know. But underdogs have been trusty in primetime, and I think if Carson Wentz can protect the ball — big ask, I know — I like the Vikings offense to move the ball on this LA defense. If Brian Flores can bounce back, I think that’ll be enough for Minnesota to escape with a win.

Falcons 27-19 Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I have no idea who will start or end this game at quarterback for the Falcons, but I also know that it won’t matter. Either one of Michael Penix Jr. or Kirk Cousins should and will win this game for Atlanta.

And I have no idea who will be let in the building on Monday morning in Miami.

Bengals 22-13 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

News flash Aaron Glenn: we all know Tyrod Taylor is starting. And we all know how that’ll end.

Flacco-Chase buddy ball for the win.

Patriots 20-17 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The only reason this feels like a trap game for the Patriots is because this is by far the best defense they’ll have played so far this season. You can argue it’s the only competent one, but I won’t stoop that low. Point being, this is a test for Drake Maye and that offense to prove that they can do it against anyone.

They won’t need to do too much assuming that the Browns offense is its usual self. If New England’s defense can stop Quinshon Judkins, they’ll be fine.

Eagles 24-20 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I know we’re just 2.5 weeks removed from the Giants beating the Eagles, but I don’t know if New York can do it again, especially being on the road this time.

AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley being banged up gives me pause, but they should be fine, and this Eagles offense just put together a masterclass that gives them positive momentum rolling into this one. I know Jaxson Dart will be able to move the ball against Philly’s defense because I’ve already seen it once. But I just don’t know if they can complete the sweep.

Bills 27-20 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Even if Andy Dalton starts for Carolina, they’re going to give Buffalo a challenge. This is an elite rushing team against a Bills D that has struggled against the run. And that passing game has found its groove, even if it was with Bryce Young and not the Red Rifle.

In any case, the Bills can’t lose this game. They haven’t won in a month, they had a bye week to get ready, and they need to lock in ASAP. I know this is a potential look-ahead spot with the Chiefs on deck next week, but they should have this one.

Ravens 26-23 Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Lamar Jackson should be back in this game, and that should be enough for Baltimore to win. But he’ll need to be Superman on a bad hammy, and that scares me a little.

This Bears team is no slouch as long as Caleb Williams isn’t turning the ball over. He is in no way the reason why they’re winning, but he can be the reason they lose. If he stays under control and gets a good game out of his running backs, Chicago’s playmaking defense might be able to do enough to put them over the top.

But I simply can’t pick Caleb over Lamar regardless of these polar opposite defensive units.

49ers 21-17 Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I can’t faithfully pick Houston to beat anyone with the state of their offensive line. It’s genuinely unfathomable to be as bad as they are up front. The young Niners defense is going to make life hell for CJ Stroud, and I will be in shambles watching it.

Maybe the Texans defense can make some plays to keep them around like they did on Monday night. But can the offense do anything with that? My guess is no.

Buccaneers 26-19 Saints

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

The Bucs might be beat up and coming off a short week, but they’ve still got the bodies to beat a very bad Saints team, though anything goes in this rivalry.

It’d be a hell of a win for New Orleans, who isn’t playing awful ball, but ain’t great either. Expect a big Baker bounce back.

Broncos 27-24 Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

I originally thought this was an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, but the Broncos defense showed a concerning number of cracks last week. I’ll choose to believe that was a bad game, but it’s not getting easier against Dallas’ world-beating offense.

The fact of the matter is I still don’t trust the Cowboys defense. They’re not playing practice squad WRs this week like they were against Washington — they’re going to need to revert to their zone scheme, which Bo Nix should be able to dice up. And Denver should be able to run the ball, which has been a weakness for them in recent weeks. That should be enough to get the job done at home.

Colts 31-13 Titans

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Next!

Steelers 23-20 Packers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

I’ll be honest with you guys. I have zero read on this game whatsoever.

I don’t like either defense — Pittsburgh’s is straight up bad while Green Bay’s doesn’t make enough splash plays for how talented they are. Both quarterbacks are playing well, but I know either of them can make a mistake at any given moment.

Honestly, I’m just riding with the Steelers because I believe in the Aaron Rodgers revenge game. We saw how he performed against the Jets, and while that team is significantly worse than the Packers, I think he’ll get up for this one because he’s a psycho with a point to prove. In any case, it’s going to be absolute cinema.

Chiefs 45-10 Commanders

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Let’s get this one over with.

Reinforcements might be coming on offense, and changes might happen on defense. But it won’t matter. We’re onto Seattle.

Week 7 Picks

The young NFL season plunges forward with a handful of exciting primetime games, potential upsets and big time matchups across the board as we approach the midway point of the campaign.

Cover photo taken from NFL.com.

Last Week: 11-4

Season Total: 60-32-1

Bengals 20-17 Steelers

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Why not?

Short week, divisional matchup means shenanigans are inbound.

Rams 23-16 Jaguars

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Oh look, we decided to send a good game overseas for once. The Brits should enjoy this one, though their “hometown” Jaguars will need to get their run game back in check to win it. And I don’t know if they can.

Even without Puka Nacua, this Rams offense will do enough, and LA’s defense will do the rest.

Bears 24-19 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Do the Saints have what it takes to win this game? Sure. But can they put it together to do so? Seems unlikely.

Chicago isn’t playing at a super high level, but they’re playing well enough to beat bad teams. And that’ll play against New Orleans.

Browns 6-3 Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Heavy rain and — checks notes — 50-60 mph wind gusts? Yeah, give me the under.

You want a prediction bolder than this abysmal score? Dillon Gabriel gets benched for Shedeur Sanders, who leads the Browns to victory. Have fun watching ESPN on Monday morning, cause I won’t.

Patriots 26-13 Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Mike Vrabel probably has a few tricks up his sleeve for this well-timed revenge game. “See what happens when you let me go for no reason?”

Chiefs 28-10 Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Next.

Vikings 19-16 Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Ah, yes. The Carson Wentz revenge game. A few years late, guys.

The fact of the matter is that this game doesn’t come down to Wentz, even against a bad Eagles secondary. It comes down to Minnesota’s defense. Already strong, coming off a bye, playing an anemic offense with no semblance of an identity… yeah, Brian Flores is going to have a field day.

Jets 23-20 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

They’ve gotta get one eventually, man.

The Jets bottled up the Broncos’ run game last week, so we’ll see if Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard go wild on the ground. But the Panthers’ defense isn’t very good, and while New York’s offense is horrible, maybe they can do just enough to win.

Maybe.

Broncos 20-12 Giants

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Two great defenses against two bad offenses. Who wins? The better offense? I’d say no.

Give me the better defense in Denver, particularly against a rookie quarterback who we’ve seen get flustered when things start going wrong.

Colts 27-24 Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

I’ve been torn on this one, but I’ll stick with the team that’s been far more trustworthy on both sides of the ball.

Both teams have proven that they can pull out a close one, but the Colts have at least been more consistent. This one would go a long way to improve their public perception, since I’m apparently the only person who respects them.

Cowboys 34-31 Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Sigh. I guess this is it.

Washington might be without Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel in this game with Noah Brown already on IR. You’re looking at a starting WR group of Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane and Chris Moore for the Commanders. Jayden Daniels can make it work with anyone, especially against this Dallas defense, but come on.

The Cowboys are trending in the opposite direction on the injury front. CeeDee Lamb, Kevontae Turpin and Tyler Booker should be back in this game to boost an offense that’s already getting crazy contributions out of George Pickens and Jake Ferguson. And Dak Prescott — who is already playing at a ridiculously high level — is 11-2 against Washington in his career.

It feels like the Cowboys are catching this Commanders team at a good time. We are beat up as hell and our defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Dallas’ nonexistent defense will give up points and yards to Jayden and company — regardless of who’s out there — but I think Dak will do just a tad bit more. And I will be sent further into the abyss.

Cardinals 24-23 Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Again, why not? The Cardinals have been completely stifled by last-second loss after last-second loss. Regardless of who suits up at quarterback — I lowkey think Jacoby Brissett is the better option in any case — I feel like Arizona finds a way to win this one.

The Packers just haven’t been very impressive since… I don’t know, the season opener? I keep waiting for them to be the amazing team we saw in early September, and it’s just not happening. Maybe this is where it comes back to bite.

Falcons 26-20 49ers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

As I said earlier in the week, San Francisco’s injury situation is becoming untenable.

The loss of Fred Warner will be heavily felt against this offense, and I think we’re in for another massive Bijan Robinson game. Plus, Atlanta’s emerging defense can certainly make some plays against a shorthanded but admittedly well-coached Niners offense.

Lions 30-27 Buccaneers

Monday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

First to 30 wins? Feels like the case with the state of both secondaries.

We know the Buccaneers will score because they can clearly do it with anyone playing with Baker Mayfield, especially against a beat up Lions defense. And we know Detroit can score because of their offensive firepower going up against a bad Tampa defensive backfield.

So, just give me the Lions considering they tend to not lose these home primetime games. In the regular season, at least. Though, Baker tends to cause them problems.

Seahawks 23-14 Texans

Monday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

I hate this matchup for the Texans. This offensive line is going to be in for a world of pain against a Seattle front that just racked up seven sacks against Jacksonville. Asking them to keep CJ Stroud upright is like pulling teeth at this point. We can only hope for the best.

Houston’s defense will keep them around for a while, but the Seahawks offense will do their thing eventually to pull away and win this one by a decent margin.

Week 6 Picks

An emotional primetime rematch, high-flying offensive shootouts and potentially sneaky showdowns highlight another packed weekend in the blossoming NFL season.

Cover photo taken from The Sporting News.

Last Week: 9-5

Season Total: 49-28-1

Eagles 20-17 Giants

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

I’m probably putting too much faith in the old adage of divisional games being close and whatnot, but I feel like New York’s defense can make this close, at least for a little bit.

But, I don’t have any faith in the Giants offense led by Jaxson Dart against a pretty solid Eagles defense. It doesn’t really matter what Philly’s offense looks like because they won’t have to do too much — a theme that’s becoming pretty repetitive.

Broncos 22-16 Jets

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Ah, yes. Another terrible team overseas. Sorry, Brits.

The Jets have to come out with some life in this game. They’ve been off to such horrible starts against the Bucs, Dolphins and Cowboys that have dug them in holes that they can only statpad out of. Maybe, just maybe, this is a game where they can have some life.

But, I won’t put my faith in that. This game screams a strong Broncos first half with a futile New York comeback attempt late in the game. At least Justin Fields will keep getting those fantasy points in!

Steelers 20-12 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

No, thank you.

Browns might be a trendy upset pick here, but Mike Tomlin his extremely successful off byes and against rookie quarterbacks. Don’t overthink this one.

Chargers 24-21 Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Anyone remember the good old days where these fanbases would argue over who got the better quarterback in the 2020 draft? Yeah, me neither.

This is a spot where the Chargers need to get right. Miami couldn’t have popped up at a better time for them, because I don’t think the Dolphins have the bodies on defense to disrupt that makeshift offensive line like the Giants and Commanders did. This has to be where Justin Herbert looks like himself again, especially with no Omarion Hampton in the lineup.

I still think the Dolphins can keep up on offense, but we all know they’re not going to be able to get it done in the end.

Patriots 23-17 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Feels like a classic spot where the Patriots could come back down after Sunday night’s emotional upset in Buffalo. But is New Orleans really the team to do that against? Probably not.

I do like the Saints to stick around in this game, largely because Spencer Rattler is playing some solid ball and the defense has a knack for turnovers right now. But I don’t know if they can take down a team that’s above their caliber.

Rams 38-17 Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Next.

Colts 29-17 Cardinals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Kyler Murray likely won’t be suiting up for the Cardinals on Sunday. That’s good news for Marvin Harrison Jr., but probably bad news for the team at large.

Combine that with how incandescent the Colts have been, and this one probably shouldn’t be close.

Seahawks 23-20 Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Talk about a banger that wasn’t remotely viewed as one six weeks ago. Dare I say this is the best non-primetime game of the week!

I was pretty torn on this one. Both defenses are awesome, both offenses are playing well. Seattle is taking a pretty long road trip and Jacksonville has been an electric environment. But the Jags themselves just went to San Francisco and won. It can really go either way.

In the end, I lean Seattle because I simply trust Sam Darnold more than I do Trevor Lawrence. He’s playing at an incredibly high level and has been better at avoiding mistakes, despite that late interception against Tampa last week. If it comes down to whichever QB makes the big throw to win it at the death, I’ll take him.

Cowboys 30-27 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I’m probably overestimating the Panthers’ ability to hang around in this game, but I honestly think this game looks like a closer version of Dallas’ win over the Jets last week. The Cowboys will get off to a hot start then give up some points late, especially because the Panthers get off to very slow starts before ratcheting up in the second half like they did against Miami and Arizona.

In any case, I’d appreciate a Carolina victory here, but I’m in no way expecting one. Not with the way Dak Prescott is playing, and certainly not with how the Cowboys are running the ball. Maybe we’re in for a Rico Dowdle revenge game, who knows.

Raiders 22-19 Titans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

Do I have to? Fine.

I guess I’ll take the Raiders at home. Tennessee’s comeback last week masks the fact that they’re still a disaster, no matter how good Cam Ward looks on tape (which is pretty damn good, by the way). Don’t get me wrong, Vegas isn’t much better, but maybe Ashton Jeanty goes off and Geno Smith stops throwing the ball to the wrong team.

Either way, I don’t really care. And I don’t think you do, either.

Buccaneers 26-23 49ers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Here’s a battle of teams that overcome numerous injuries to find their way to 4-1 and atop their divisions. What gives when they meet head to head?

It’s probably going to be Mac Jones under center again for the 49ers, which is by no means a bad thing. We’ve seen numerous times this season how effective he is; honestly, he’s been better for them than Brock Purdy has. Despite the players they’ll be without on both sides of the ball, San Francisco can’t be easily dismissed by anyone.

But, I’ll still take Tampa Bay at home. That offense is playing at a ridiculous level with Baker Mayfield at the helm, and they keep on finding ways to win. I think their secondary will need to step up and make a play or two down the stretch, allowing Baker and co. to do the rest.

Packers 34-14 Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Next, again!

Chiefs 27-24 Lions

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

What a brilliant Sunday nighter this is going to be. Points, points, points!

The Lions are clearly a better team than the Chiefs are right now. I don’t think anyone is disputing that. But, this is still Kansas City, and this is still Patrick Mahomes. I think you’re going to see a lot of folks pick KC here because they simply need it more — their backs are against the wall, they desperately need to stay afloat at .500 and they don’t lose games like this at home.

But, the Lions don’t care about any of that. Hell, the last time they went to Kansas City, they pulled off the upset to show the league that they were no joke (with the great help of one Kadarius Toney). And we all know that their offense can run over anyone in the league. If that emerging defense can make a play or two like Jacksonville did last week, it should be enough for Detroit to win.

I just think Mahomes and co. play a solid, clean game and get the job done in the end, even without Rashee Rice, and maybe without Xavier Worthy again.

Bills 24-20 Falcons

Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

I think the Bills are in a great spot to bounce back from Sunday night’s stinker regardless of what Atlanta team we see on Monday night. But that’s the problem — the Falcons have been so Jekyll and Hyde this season that I feel like I can’t pick them to beat anyone above their proverbial pay-grade.

Maybe Bijan Robinson comes out and runs all over Buffalo like Derrick Henry did in Week 1. Maybe Michael Penix Jr. looks like his Week 4 self and not his Week 3 self. Maybe the defense looks like their Week 2 self and not their Week 4 self. Are you confused yet? That’s just the Falcons for you.

So, I’ll take the consistent team that I can trust — the one that’s due to make things right after last week.

Commanders 31-17 Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

No Hail Mary will be necessary for this one. We are going to roll.

I could write a dissertation about this matchup, this baby rivalry, these quarterbacks, that head coach and particularly that Bears fanbase. And that wouldn’t even include what happened on October 27, 2024.

Instead, I’ll keep it to Monday night. A battle between the NFL’s top rushing offense and its 31st-ranked rushing defense. A battle between the best QB in the 2024 draft class — one who’s back to his usual elite self — and the third-best QB from that class on his best day. A battle between two defenses that are finding their groove in different ways. It’s going to be a blast.

In the end, the Bears are not going to be able to contain this rushing attack. Jayden Daniels won’t have to be Superman because Bill and Deebo and the rest of the offense will have their way. And to be clear, I think Caleb Williams could have a solid game against this secondary that has its shortcomings. But I think our defensive line will get after him and stifle their nonexistent rushing attack. And he can’t win this game on his own.

I’ll be there — just as I was there for that fateful moment last October — and I cannot freaking wait.

Week 5 Picks

The first football weekend in October promises to be another fun one in the NFL with a number of star-studded matchups and high-powered battles across the league.

Cover photo taken from NFL.

Last Week: 11-4-1

Season Total: 40-23-1

Rams 24-10 49ers

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

The 49ers are decimated by injuries and the Rams are humming. This is a simple calculus.

If San Francisco finds a way to win this game on the road without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, I’ll just throw my hands up and concede defeat.

Vikings 13-10 Browns

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

First to 10 points wins.

With the way these two defenses are playing, the submarined total of 35.5 makes total sense. I guess I’ll take the “trusty” vet in Carson Wentz over the rookie making his first start in Dillon Gabriel. Plus, the Vikings have been overseas for two weeks now, which should be an advantage.

Either way, we owe the UK an apology for sending this game their way.

Colts 27-17 Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Considering the trajectory of these two squads, this game shouldn’t be close. But, because I’m picking the Colts in survivor, it’ll find a way to be.

Regardless, I won’t predict that to be the case. The Raiders are a mess right now and this is a great spot for Indy to bounce back after last week’s tough loss on the west coast.

Saints 22-19 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Saints aren’t going 0-17. They’ve got to find a win somewhere.

Before the season started, I said this would be one of only two wins for them, so I’ll stick to my guns.

Cowboys 27-24 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

For some reason that I can’t quite pinpoint, I really wanted to pick the Jets to win this game. Like the Saints, they’ve got to find a win somewhere, right? Why shouldn’t it come against the worst defense in the NFL?

Well, I just don’t trust New York’s offense right now. The Cowboys have essentially proven that they can win any shootout with the way their offense is playing, so at least I can trust them in that regard.

Eagles 20-16 Broncos

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

As I’ve repeated, I’m going to continue to pick the Eagles until they lose, because they will always find a way to win.

Plus, Bo Nix doesn’t really move me, even against a susceptible Philly defense. Denver’s defense should keep them in this one, but I don’t know if the Broncos offense can make the plays necessary to put them over the top.

Panthers 26-21 Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Do I have to pick a winner here? Fine, I guess.

Give me the Panthers for no reason other than vibes. I can see Bryce Young putting together his bi-monthly solid game, and I can particularly see Tetairoa McMillan finally having his breakout game for Carolina. Don’t get me wrong, I also see the potentially more likely outcome of the Dolphins shredding Carolina’s dreadful defense, but I’ll choose the glass-half-full option with the home team.

Texans 24-16 Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

So, the Ravens are screwed. Here’s a list of players that could miss this game for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey (this one might be a good thing) and Chidobe Awuzie. That’s insane. It’s never a good sign when your injury report mirrors a Costco receipt.

Hence, I’ll take the Texans, since there’s no way this shorthanded Baltimore squad can beat that defense without Lamar. And while Houston’s offense isn’t anything amazing, you and I can move the ball against the Ravens defense at full strength. Now that they’re missing all their best players, it’ll be brutal.

Cardinals 25-12 Titans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Every passing week with the Titans, we should be telling ourselves, “This should be Brian Callahan’s last game as head coach.”

We’ll see if that actually comes to fruition on Sunday.

Seahawks 24-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Ah, yes. The throwback uniform matchup of the century. The former Panthers outcast quarterback bowl. The “Ohio State is WRU” battle of the year. So on and so forth.

This game should be a banger, but I get the feeling that it won’t be. And that’s largely due to the injuries that Tampa Bay continues to deal with. Baker Mayfield has missed some practice time and Bucky Irving might miss his first game of the year all while the offensive line continues being a patchwork one and the WR corps remains on the mend.

Meanwhile, Seattle is on a completely upward trajectory. Considering their home field advantage, the way their defense is dominating games and how brilliant Sam Darnold and JSN have been, the Seahawks are an easy pick for me here.

Commanders 30-27 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This one’s going to come back to bite me, but so be it. This is the difference that Jayden Daniels makes.

No, Terry McLaurin nor Noah Brown are playing in this game. No, our defense can’t stop a traffic cone. But No. 5 is the great eraser. And he’s back.

It’s not just that, though. The Chargers being without Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt with an already abysmal interior offensive line gives me confidence that our defensive line can get some movement up front, both limiting Omarion Hampton and making Justin Herbert uncomfortable. That will need to happen, because I have little to no faith in our secondary against Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. And while I like LA’s defense, they haven’t faced a Daniels-like quarterback just yet.

This game is going to be played on ice skates. And I trust Jayden to get the job done in his homecoming to SoCal.

Lions 38-10 Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This is going to be a bloodbath so vicious that it should be censored on television.

Bills 23-14 Patriots

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

This is quite the measuring stick game for the Patriots, and undoubtedly the biggest game of Drake Maye’s young career. With the eyes of the nation looking at New England, it’s a real chance to make a statement.

But, it’s not going to happen. The Bills don’t lose at home, and they don’t lose to the Patriots anymore. Plus, how can Buffalo falter in those icy white uniforms?

Chiefs 23-20 Jaguars

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Like the Patriots, this is a heck of a measuring stick game for the Jaguars. They’ve started hot, but they also haven’t really played anyone crazy quite yet. This will be a great test for them at home.

With the way Jacksonville’s defense is playing, it’s admittedly hard to pick against them. But the Chiefs feel like they’re back, and I think they have what it takes to beat that strong Jags D now that Xavier Worthy is back. But, if Liam Coen’s fiesty bunch finds a way to pull this out, don’t color me surprised.

Week 4 Picks

Star-studded rivalries, revenge games, new uniform debuts and an international game make Week 4’s slate arguably the most fascinating one of the young NFL season. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Cover photo taken from NBC4.

Last Week: 8-8

Season Total: 29-19

Seahawks 23-20 Cardinals

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

The Cardinals might be the better-dressed team in this game, but the Seahawks are the better football team.

The way Seattle is humming on both sides of the ball gives me plenty of faith that they’ll get this done on the road. I just feel more comfortable with them than Arizona, whose identity-less offense might be in for a long night against a defense that’s punching above its weight and only getting healthier.

Vikings 16-13 Steelers

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Ah yes, I love waking up to Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz hoops in Dublin, Ireland. Nothing like it!

Simply put, in an international game where anything goes, I’ll take the team with the defense that I trust. That’s Minnesota; low bar against the Steelers unit, but Brian Flores is coaching his tail off right now, and Wentz will make it work on the other side of the ball. I don’t really like what Pittsburgh has on across the board.

Falcons 20-17 Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This is subject to change, but I’m writing this with the assumption that neither Jayden Daniels nor Terry McLaurin will play in this game for the Commanders. Even with the polar opposite performances these squads had a week ago, that’s a pretty big deal for Washington.

Marcus Mariota is obviously a tremendous backup, but playing without your top two WRs, your best blocking tight end and your starting right guard against a very talented defense is not a recipe for success. Yes, we have some guys on offense that can step up and make plays, and they’ll have to for us to pull this out. And yes, our defense is hooping. But this really feels like a spot where the Falcons get right after last week’s debacle in a lower-scoring affair.

Bills 31-13 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Next!

Lions 24-10 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Let’s hope this week’s survivor pick (Detroit) winds up being less stressful than last week’s (Tampa Bay).

The Browns defense is awesome, but the Lions are on a crazy roll right now. No one should want to be in their way.

Patriots 26-20 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Realistically, the Patriots should win this game comfortably. They’ve been more consistent, they have better QB play and they should be getting Christian Gonzalez back on defense. But, New England hasn’t been able to stay out of its own way this season, which will always leave the door open for any team to beat them.

Luckily for the Pats, I don’t think the Panthers pose too much of a threat. Last week was more of an aberration than anything else, and the score doesn’t totally reflect the way things went for their offense. Maybe this will be the game Bryce Young looks legit. But I doubt it.

Chargers 23-13 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This is a suboptimal spot for Jaxson Dart to make his NFL debut under center for the Giants. Not only are the Chargers a damn good team, but New York might be without Malik Nabers after he got rocked on SNF.

I don’t think this is the time that Brian Daboll wanted to trot out his first-round QB, but they didn’t have a choice. Unfortunately, I don’t think Dart has what it takes to do this in his first game. The Chargers defense likely sees food right now.

Eagles 27-24 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The universe couldn’t have chosen a funnier time for these teams to face off. Each of them has gotten to 3-0 by the skin of their teeth and we have questions about both, but it sets up for a hell of a contest on Sunday.

More than anything, I’m expecting points in this game. These offenses are crazy good even with Tampa Bay dealing with injury upon injury on that side of the ball. I actually trust the Bucs defense more than the Eagles’ at this point, but we know what Philly’s is capable of at any given moment.

In any case, I’m going to continue to pick the Eagles until they lose because they’re simply going to keep on pulling these out for as long as they can. That’s the story of this team through the first three weeks, and while I can’t wait for it to end, I’m going to ride the coattails for as long as they’re there.

Texans 23-17 Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Someone’s gotta win. Something’s gotta give.

If the Titans won this game, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised. The Texans offense is so dreadful that anyone can beat them simply by putting enough points on the board. But, that Houston defense is still legit, and I think that’s going to make things even more difficult on Cam Ward and this Tennessee offense. They’ll put up a fight, but I don’t know that they have what it takes to get it done in the end.

Rams 23-20 Colts

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

A month ago, I did not expect this game to be appointment television, but here are. Dare I say: it’s the best game of the late window! Because at least both of these teams are playing at a high level and not relying on their brands and reputations for respect.

More than anything, I’m interested to see if the Rams are capable of doing something that nobody has through three weeks: slow down Daniel Jones and the Colts offense. If we see the LA defense that showed up for two quarters and change in Philadelphia last week, then they should be able to contain Jones, Jonathan Taylor and company. If not, this could turn into a shootout very quickly, because the Rams secondary could be susceptible to a big play or two from this incandescent Indianapolis offense.

I think it’ll be a blend of both. Each offense will get their game off, each defense will make a play or two. It boils down to me simply trusting the Rams a little more in this situation. I feel like we’re all waiting for the Colts to return to Earth. Maybe that won’t happen at all, but this does feel like the spot where they get their first loss.

49ers 19-16 Jaguars

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

It’s so hard to get a read on this game with the state of the 49ers roster. Injuries everywhere have us doubting whether they could be without their starting QB and top three WRs. That’s just insane.

I do think Brock Purdy will return to action here, but I don’t know about Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings. But still, I trust the Niners more at home, even against a Jags D that’s playing some good ball right now. I think Purdy and Christian McCaffrey will do just enough on offense, and the young San Francisco defense will continue to make some plays to eke out a win that looks eerily similar to the one last week.

And if the 49ers sit at 4-0 after everything they’ve had to deal with, it’ll be astounding.

Chiefs 24-20 Ravens

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

I just don’t know, man. What’s the read on this game?

The Ravens are the better team. But the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Though, Kansas City isn’t really their usual self right now. However, they’re getting Xavier Worthy back, which will drastically change their offensive outlook against a so-so Baltimore defense. And Derrick Henry has a fumbling issue. But surely that can’t continue. And Lamar Jackson is amazing, but the Ravens haven’t been able to win these games. But the Chiefs haven’t been able to run the ball. Although, Baltimore can’t really stop the run. But they can’t be 1-3, right? But the Chiefs can’t either, right?!

I’m literally being pulled in a million different directions. So, I’m just going with the gut feel and taking the Chiefs because I have no other ideas.

Bears 26-23 Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

This could feasibly be the highest-scoring game of Week 4 considering how neither of these pass defenses inspire a lot of confidence. If anything, it’ll be a passing extravaganza with both of these rushing offenses being complete non-factors through three weeks.

I’m begrudgingly leaning Chicago here because momentum is on their side. For what it’s worth, they’ve been a more consistent offense than Vegas, and Caleb Williams is coming off his best game as a pro. I think he and his buddy Rome Odunze can parlay that into another big game here against a Raiders team that’s a bit lost and confused at the moment.

Packers 31-14 Cowboys

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Micah Parsons revenge game storyline completely shrouds the fact that this game should not be remotely close. The Cowboys defense is a complete disaster, they just lost their best player on offense in CeeDee Lamb and the Packers are going to play pissed off after their loss last week.

Don’t get me wrong, Dak Prescott is playing good ball right now, and Dallas’ run game is really good. But will that offense be able to keep up with Green Bay, who could score every time they touch the ball, without Cedarian? I like George Pickens and Jalen Tolbert, but come on now. Not against that Packers defense.

Jets 22-19 Dolphins

Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Someone’s gotta win. No one’s gonna watch.

I originally picked the Jets, but then I thought about it. And I just don’t know if the Dolphins are going to get the requisite QB play to get this one done. Tua played well against New England, but that’s sandwiched in between two really bad games. If the solid Tua shows up, Miami should win. If not… we know what happens. And I’m just banking on the latter since it unfortunately feels like the new norm for him. And if Mike McDaniel gets fired on Tuesday because of it, I’m going to feel awful.

Broncos 23-18 Bengals

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

I probably would have picked the Broncos to win this game even if Joe Burrow were playing for the Bengals. It has nothing to do with Bo Nix and everything to do with the state of both of these defenses.

Honestly, I think it’ll be the run games that make the difference in this one. I think Denver should be able to run it all over Cincy with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey while Chase Brown continues to get completely smothered in the backfield on the other side. That’ll open things up enough for the Broncos offense to do what they’ve got to do. And while I don’t think Jake Browning will put up the disasterclass he did last week, I still don’t believe it’ll be pretty against another elite defense.

Week 3 Picks

The third week of the 2025 slate is juiced up with some fascinating divisional matchups and a number of star-studded showdowns that’ll show us who might be contenders, or pretenders, this season.

Cover photo taken from NFL.

Last Week: 10-6

Season Total: 21-11

Bills 30-13 Dolphins

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

No more trusting the Dolphins for me. I’ve learned my lesson in that regard.

It’s not like they stood a chance in this game anyways. A road trip to one of the best teams in the league whose offense is playing ablaze right now isn’t exactly conducive to winning. Real chance the Bills have this one wrapped up by halftime.

Packers 20-10 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Both of these defenses have been pretty awesome this season. Neither of these offenses have, though. The Packers pass the eye test on that side of the ball, but it hasn’t translated to a ton of points. They tend to take their foot off the gas with a lead, and I don’t blame them considering how the defense looks. I’m expecting that to be the case on Sunday in Cleveland.

To be honest with y’all, the only thing I remotely care about in this game is Quinshon Judkins’ performance for the Browns, since I think he can be a league winner in fantasy. Don’t let me down!

Titans 23-20 Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

What the hell, why not.

There’s approximately zero reason to take the Titans here, and the strategy of taking the home dog in a divisional game continues to bite me in the behind. But, a broken clock is right twice a day!

Besides, the Titans have to win a game at some point. I know Cam Ward’s numbers are quite bad and I know this Tennessee team has nothing to hang their hats on. Plus, the Colts are the story of the young NFL season and have one of the best offenses in the league.

You only live once, I guess.

Bengals 27-24 Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I don’t think CBS had a Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz QB matchup in mind when they decided to send Jim Nantz and Tony Romo to call this game at the beginning of the season. But, here we are.

Honestly, I had no idea which way to go here. I think both of these backups are capable — hell, any QB can make it work in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, right? — but I don’t like either offensive line right now. In that vein, I’ve seen more out of Cincinnati’s pass rush through two games than Minnesota’s. Shemar Stewart has been an impactful player, and Trey Hendrickson has been an absolute dog. I think that’s the difference in crunch time on Sunday.

Never thought I’d see the day where I picked Cincinnati because of their defense.

Steelers 26-23 Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I don’t really trust either of these teams right now. Yes, the Patriots won last week, but it took quite a lot to do that against a horrendous defense and a team that’s falling apart at the seams. And the Steelers were just totally discombobulated against the Seahawks. It makes this one tricky.

I’m taking Pittsburgh because, at the very least, they’ve shown some semblance of balance. Their defense has left a lot to be desired, as has New England’s, but I feel like their offense can make the plays they need to win. The Patriots’ run game is nonexistent, but I feel like they can get going here.

Honestly, this one can go any which way. I wanted to take the Pats at home, but they’re going to have to prove it to me.

Rams 23-17 Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Ah, yes. What should’ve happened back in January before Mother Nature got in the way.

Let’s be honest. The Eagles are going to find some way to pull this win out of their behinds because we’re not allowed to have nice things. I’m interested to see how the officials deal with the tush push after last week’s outrage, if at all. It’d also be nice to see if Philly’s offense decides to show up for once. It won’t be easy against the NFL’s leader in dropback EPA/play on defense.

Honestly, I just trust the Rams more right now. Their defense is punching above their weight and the offense is starting to get it going. The run game has been sneaky effective, which could prove to be the difference against this Eagles front.

More than anything, I need this to be the spot where the Eagles cease to get away with it. I’m hoping and praying that comes to fruition.

Buccaneers 23-15 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Pros: watching Tyrod Taylor play football.

Cons: it’s for the Jets again.

The Buccaneers’ offensive line woes are cause for concern against anyone, but in their home opener in those crispy throwbacks, they’ve got to win this one, especially against a backup quarterback. I still think Baker Mayfield is going to have to do his thing to keep this pirate ship afloat, but this one will be easier than the last two weeks.

Commanders 21-18 Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

It honestly doesn’t matter who starts at QB for Washington in this game. I’m confident in a hobbled Jayden Daniels, and I’m more than comfortable with Marcus Mariota. (For the record, I think it’ll be the latter.)

This comes down to me being extremely turned off by what I saw out of the Raiders last week. And I know Pete Carroll has an outstanding east coast record, but this is a team that played at 10 p.m. ET on a Monday traveling across the country to take on a Commanders squad that played on TNF last week. There isn’t a bigger possible rest and travel disadvantage.

I’d like to see our defense return to form while the offense does what they have to do to win. We could really, really use it.

Falcons 22-10 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Consider what we’ve seen from the Falcons defense through two weeks against hobbled offensive lines. Now consider what we’ve seen from the Panthers offense with how awful their line is.

Next!

Texans 24-17 Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Texans simply have to have this one. It’s not exactly a kitchen sink game, but this has to be the week the offense figures it out.

Houston’s offensive line gives me a ton of pause, but it’s not like the Jags front is anything crazy, though their secondary is playing better than expected. If Jacksonville can keep up their offensive success against this elite Texans defense, it could put them over the top. But I’m just sticking with my gut on this one.

Chargers 20-17 Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

This feels like a game the Broncos win. I really wanted to pick them considering their offense’s return to form in Week 2; plus, the defense will be just fine after a bit of an aberration in Indy.

I just trust Justin Herbert more than Bo Nix right now. Can you blame me? One has been arguably the best QB in the NFL through two weeks and the other is off to a Jekyll and Hyde start in 2025. In a game dominated by defenses, sometimes you have to put your faith in the better signal-caller. Right now, that’s unquestionably Herbert.

Seahawks 26-14 Saints

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Yeah, I’m just not talking about this one. I don’t even know if it’s worth it for NFL Redzone to flip to this game. When they do, it’ll probably be supplanted by a bunch more Wingstop commercials. Sigh.

Cowboys 27-20 Bears

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This is my most anticipated game of the week because of just how gnarly the ramifications could be, particularly for Chicago.

The fact of the matter is this: it’s now or never for the Bears offense. If Caleb Williams and co. can’t get it together against this Dallas defense, I don’t know if or when it’ll ever happen. And I seriously think that if it’s another week of inaccuracy, bad timing and being overwhelmed from Caleb Williams, that Chicago will turn to Tyson Bagent in a week or two. Yes, he got that extension because he’s a good backup, but that’s certainly not the only reason.

I don’t think that the Bears will look totally incompetent — the Cowboys secondary will make sure of that — but I also don’t think they’ll do what the Giants did a week ago. Their inability to run the ball means it’s all on Caleb’s shoulders, and I don’t think that’s a recipe for success.

In any case, I’ve seen enough from Dallas offensively to put my faith in them to go on the road and beat a team that has given up 73 points in the last five quarters. And then it’ll be really, really uncomfortable times in Chicago.

49ers 24-21 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

I don’t think a game between two 2-0 teams can be any less enticing than this one, especially within the division. But I just can’t bring myself to care.

Maybe it’s because the 49ers are so beat up. Maybe it’s the Cardinals refusing to look truly impressive on offense. Who knows?

I do think Arizona’s got a nice defense. But, so do the Niners, and that unit has helped them clinch both wins this season. And I really hate to choose between Mac Jones and Kyler Murray. But Macaroni looked solid in his first start under Kyle Shanahan, and in their home opener, I think that’ll be enough to help San Francisco get over the top and somehow get to 3-0 despite being so shorthanded.

Chiefs 23-20 Giants

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

To put it plainly, I don’t have the stones to pick the Giants to win this game outright, but New York +6.5 is my favorite bet of the week.

It’s just impossible to trust the Chiefs right now. Even if they get Xavier Worthy back, who knows what the offense looks like? Will they actually be able to run the ball against the league’s worst run D? And while I’d like to believe in their defense, they haven’t been able to make the plays necessary to stay in games in the fourth quarter.

I did say before that we’ll never see the Giants have an offensive explosion like they did last week again this season. I still believe that. But I don’t think they’ll need to do all that to be in this game.

This is a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. Which side gets the advantage? Probably the more desperate one. The Chiefs cannot afford to be 0-3. The thought of them in that position is hard to comprehend. But, it’ll take their best game of the season to avoid it.

Ravens 31-27 Lions

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Now this… this is a Monday Night Football game right here. Get ready for fireworks, points, drama and a damn good time.

There’s honestly not much I can say about this game that can’t just be inferred from looking at these logos, these lineups, these offenses. This is going to be like a tamer version of Bills-Ravens in Week 1 — or a crazier version! None of us would mind that.

I’m riding the Ravens at home here because it’s going to be an unreal environment in a Baltimore blackout. The Lions are more than capable of winning this one on the road — they were incredible away from home last year — and the Ravens have lost in spots like this before, but I’m not betting against them considering how their offense is playing through two weeks.

Week 2 Picks

After the thrilling events of the NFL’s opening slate, what does Week 2 have for an encore? With some high-profile matchups across the board, we’re about to find out.

Cover photo taken from Opta Analyst.

Last Week: 11-5

Season Total: 11-5

Packers 24-20 Commanders

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

This one was circled as a loss even before the season began. Back in May, I was sitting in a car shop waiting for some repairs when I saw that we’d be going to Lambeau Field on a short week to play a team I already thought was pretty good and thought, yup, “That’s a loss.” Then the Packers got Micah Parsons, and I’m even more sure of it.

A lot of people might see this as reverse psychology or whatever, but it’s not. I know when to yield to a team that’s better. That being said, this is a hell of an opportunity to go out there and make a statement. I know Jayden Daniels is ready to shine in primetime, and I hope that our defensive line can replicate their Week 1 performance against a beat up Packers OL. I just have to pick Green Bay here because of circumstance.

Bengals 27-22 Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Considering the nature of these two defenses — though they both played well a week ago — I’m expecting a good amount of points in this one. And who do you trust in a shootout? Usually the better offense in case they have the ball last. Or the better defense that can step up and make a necessary stop.

In either case, I’m sticking with the home team. Cincinnati is way too talented to struggle like they did against Cleveland in Week 1. This ain’t the Browns defense, and it isn’t an AFC North slugfest. So I’m expecting a performance that’s more par for the course in orange and black. But don’t sleep on the Jags offense to make some noise.

Cowboys 23-10 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Kind of gross? I mean, the Cowboys did look pretty good in the opener in Philly. The run game was moving, Dak Prescott looked very comfortable and the defense exceeded expectations. Back at home against a lifeless Giants team that can’t move the ball, I’m expecting a nice and easy win for Dallas.

The only thing that really interests me in this contest is whether or not we see a quarterback not named Russell Wilson take some snaps for New York.

Lions 24-17 Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Oh, brother. What does Ben Johnson have in store for his revenge game? What is Caleb Williams going to look like after a horrendous start to the season? Are the Lions going to figure out what’s happening on their offense? So many questions!

In a spot like this, I really don’t know who to trust. But then I look at the Lions’ offensive personnel, and I say, “Yeah, I’ll take those guys.” Because at least I’ve seen what they’re capable of, even when the architect of that is now on the opposing sideline. I haven’t seen anything I like out of the Johnson-Williams tandem. Maybe this is the game they show me something. But I’ll believe it when I see it.

Rams 23-13 Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This one could be ugly for the Titans considering how well the Rams defense played last week. I’d like to think that Tennessee can only go up from how poorly coached they were and how awful their offensive skill position players were last week in Denver. But my faith isn’t very high. Poor Cam Ward.

The Rams are dealing with some injuries up front, which could create problems. But if they could survive against Houston’s ferocious defense last week, I think they’ll be just fine against Tennessee.

Dolphins 23-20 Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Call me crazy. This is a great spot to buy low on the Dolphins. At home, divisional matchup, early season in south Florida. It just feels like it makes sense.

Now, it could also make sense for Miami to continue the dysfunction and come out looking absolutely horrendous. I’m never ruling out that possibility. The Patriots weren’t bad by any means last week, but I worry about their offense in terms of getting consistent production out of the passing game. The Dolphins still feel like the team with the better chance to make the game-changing play on offense.

49ers 16-10 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Ah, yes. Mac Jones vs. Spencer Rattler. Appointment television, I tell you.

I wanted to pick the Saints here; if there was ever a time to do so, it’s now. But I actually think Macaroni is the type of QB that Kyle Shanahan can win with, especially against a depleted New Orleans secondary. Besides, if Christian McCaffrey can make a play or two, that’s all the Niners need. We know the Saints aren’t going to do anything worth a damn on offense.

Bills 27-17 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Can the Jets replicate what we saw last week against Pittsburgh? It’s entirely possible. I’d like to think that Justin Fields can play more like that and less like what we’ve seen at his previous stops.

But, it’s far more likely that the Bills come out and hoop like they always do against their divisional foes. Though the Jets have always been the thorn in their side in the AFC East, this doesn’t feel like a spot where they lose. I worry about the emotional aftermath following last week’s thriller on SNF, but they’re too sound across the board to drop this game.

It might be closer than I imagine, but I can’t bring myself to pick against Buffalo.

Steelers 24-16 Seahawks

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Before last week, I may have had this pick flipped. But what the Steelers passing game showed me was very promising. Is it sustainable? Who knows. But I think they can keep it up for one more week against an absolutely putrid Seahawks secondary.

Besides, this is the DK Metcalf revenge game. I’m expecting some big numbers from him in his home debut. I’d also like to see Pittsburgh’s run game take a jump, but it probably won’t matter with Seattle’s defensive backfield being so porous.

Ravens 27-10 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I hate to discount the power of an AFC North game, but there’s a reason why the Ravens are 11.5-point favorites in this game. This is still probably the best team in the NFL, and while the Browns defense is plenty good, the offense leaves a lot to be desired.

In any case, I don’t see a world where the Ravens start 0-2. Famous last words circa 2024, I know. But surely things are different this time… right?

Colts 16-13 Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

I’m a real sicko who can’t wait for this game because both of these teams fascinated me so much last week. These were the top two teams in defensive EPA/play in Week 1 — Denver was particularly insane due to the ineptitude of Tennessee’s offense — but the Broncos were 28th in offensive EPA/play while the Colts were 6th. In that same vein, Daniel Jones was seventh in EPA+CPOE while Bo Nix was 21st with three turnovers.

Do these trends continue on Sunday afternoon in Indy? It’s hard to know. I feel like I should trust the Broncos more here, but I’m just so turned off by what I saw against Tennessee. I do think both defenses will show up and show out in this game, leaving the end result up to which QB goofs up in the end. And based on what I saw in Week 1, I think that’ll be Bo Nix. What a time to be alive!

Cardinals 30-17 Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

I don’t know that I can pick the Panthers to beat anyone with how bad their defense is, let alone how inept their offense looked a week ago. So, just give me the Cardinals at home, and let’s move on.

Chiefs 20-17 Eagles

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Am I worried about the Chiefs’ lack of WRs, subpar pass rush and alarming defensive performance last week? Yes I am. Was I impressed with the Eagles in their opener after a vanishing act by their WRs and a less-than-desirable night from their defense? No I was not. Something’s gotta give.

I just feel like this isn’t a spot where the Chiefs are going to lose. It’s hard to picture this team at 0-2, and you’d gotta think they want to make up for what happened in New Orleans back in February. That’s how it was for the Eagles in this matchup back in 2023 having lost Super Bowl LVII earlier in the calendar year.

Please don’t let me down again, Kansas City.

Vikings 23-16 Falcons

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Another SNF banger. This one fascinates me. What does Michael Penix Jr. have for an encore against another diabolical defensive mind? How does JJ McCarthy follow up his MNF heroics from a week ago? I can’t wait to find out.

I’d like to think that the Vikings defense will make the difference in this game. Penix had a test last week against Todd Bowles, but Brian Flores is a whole ‘nother beast. Minnesota is going to throw stuff at him that he’s never seen before. I think he and this Falcons offense are equipped to handle it, but I do think some cracks will show. And I think the Vikes offense will do just enough against an admittedly improved Falcons defense to get the job done.

Texans 23-20 Buccaneers

Monday, 7 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Surely, surely, this is the week the Texans offense figures it out. This isn’t a very vaunted secondary lining up across from these talented wide receivers, and we saw how good the run game could be last week. If CJ Stroud just has enough time to throw, I think Houston should put up some points.

I think the Buccaneers are equipped to handle Houston’s defense, but their patchwork offensive line against the Texans’ insane front seven gives me pause. I don’t think I can pick a team to win when there’s seemingly that big of a mismatch in the trenches, even if their offense has itself figured out while Houston’s doesn’t.

Raiders 27-24 Chargers

Monday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

You know I like a home dog in a divisional game (because that strategy worked out so well last week, right?).

I think the Chargers are much better than the Raiders are, and Brock Bowers potentially being out definitely scares me. But I still think Vegas has the juice on offense to make this a game. Expect some big plays from the rookie duo of Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton.

While I think LA will still get their game off, I just have a feeling that the Raiders will make a couple of plays late and steal a home-opening win. It’s this week’s ultimate vibes play.

Week 1 Picks

The 2025 NFL season is finally upon us with a Week 1 slate that promises to be equal parts exciting and dramatic. Here’s how I see the opening slate playing out.

Cover photo taken from CNN.

Eagles 30-17 Cowboys

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Eagles were never going to lose on the night that they drop a second banner at the Linc. They certainly aren’t going to lose now that Dallas’ already awful defense just lost its best player. Could Kenny Clark’s presence in the middle slow down Saquon Barkley? Probably not. Regardless, no one in the Cowboys secondary is going to be stopping AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith anytime soon. Philadelphia could run away with this one — hence this spread ballooning by nearly two points in recent days.

Chiefs 20-17 Chargers

Friday, 8 p.m. ET, YouTube

Oh, São Paulo. Why we keep sending games there is kind of beyond me. But, at least the NFL has had the decency to give the Brazilians good matchups. Philly-Green Bay last year was a blast, and I think this one will be too. It’ll be a lot more defensive than that game was, but it’ll be a good one. Both times these two faced off last year, it was a defensive slugfest with neither team eclipsing the 20-point mark. So I’m expecting more of the same here, particularly with Rashee Rice being out for the Chiefs. But, they’ll still come out on top — probably on another last-second field goal — because they’re the Chiefs and the Chargers always lose like this. We’ve seen this film before.

Falcons 26-23 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

In Week 1 divisional games, anything goes. I know the Bucs are a slight favorite here, but I think you can throw so much stuff out the window. If Tristan Wirfs can’t go, it’d be a major loss for Tampa, even with Atlanta’s pass rush being as unproven as it is. But, in any case, I see this as a spot where Michael Penix Jr. goes out there and slings it for four quarters, putting up big numbers against a so-so secondary and leading the Falcons to a win. Just a vibes play.

Bengals 26-17 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Bengals can’t possibly start slow and lose to the Browns again… right? They certainly hope so. Cincy played their starters in the preseason for a reason. I don’t know if that strategy will bear fruit, but in any case, they have no business losing this game. Just like they had no business losing to the Patriots the year prior, and so on and so forth. Don’t let me down again, please!

Dolphins 27-24 Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

For what it’s worth, the Dolphins love to start hot in September. The weather is pleasant — hell, this game is indoors — the expectations are low, and Tua is free. Combine that with the Colts being in a sticky QB situation and this feels like a winnable game for Miami on the road.

Raiders 27-20 Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

I feel like this game is flying under the radar as one of the better matchups of Week 1. The return of both Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll, the Vegas debuts of Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, Drake Maye’s first game in the new-look Patriots offense and so much more. I’m going to miss it due to being at the Commanders game, but I gladly would’ve put this one on the second monitor in the early window. I lean Raiders simply because of their superior offensive talent, but with both defenses being unknowns, this one could really go either way. It’s also a tough road trip out east for Vegas, but I think they can handle it. They won’t be the undisciplined, sloppy bunch of the past.

Cardinals 22-13 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Yeah, I want nothing to do with this one. The Saints might win this game sheerly because of how much we’re completely disregarding them, but I wouldn’t bet on that to happen. I can’t trust that franchise with anything right now. If Arizona loses after I was so kind to them, I’ll be upset.

Jets 16-13 Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Ah, yes. The Parent Trap game, but for quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields each face their old friends from a year ago and are out for revenge. You’d think the opposing team knows their former quarterbacks well, but I don’t know if the new-look Jets are ready for Rodgers the way Tomlin will be for Fields. Regardless, neither quarterback is going to play well. This has defensive slugfest written all over it as both offenses are still a work in progress while the defenses have known talent. I’m taking the Jets to win it sheerly based on vibes — I think Aaron Glenn is going to have them seriously juiced up to win, and all they need is a couple of more trips inside the 30 than Pittsburgh to kick some field goals and come out on top.

Commanders 23-20 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Ah shoot, here we go again. Our arch nemeses are back in town looking to spoil the fun of a season opener that kicks off a year where our expectations have never been higher. Surely this goes well, right? Listen, Russell Wilson has always given us trouble and Brian Daboll just has our number for some reason. Both of our matchups last year were close, though we were in control for most of the second game. And Russ is certainly an upgrade over Daniel Jones. So, it won’t be easy, which is why I’d gladly take the Giants to cover. But, we should be able to handle business in the end. I think our superior talent on offense will get it done, putting up just enough points to eke by.

Jaguars 30-27 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Another underrated matchup here. Both of these teams are sneaky playoff candidates in the eyes of many, and both of them have some shiny new toys to display. I expect Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan to each make some plays in this game, particularly with neither defense being much to look at. Really, the difference for me comes down to Jacksonville just having a little bit more juice on offense. I think Brian Thomas Jr. is in for a big game, even with Jaycee Horn lining up across from him. In any case, this one should actually be fun, and I’ll be interested to watch it back early next week.

Broncos 28-13 Titans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

This is my survivor pool pick of the week, which is something I’ve had set in my mind for months now. I like what Tennessee has going on, and I’m a fan of Cam Ward, but to go on the road to play the best defense in the NFL in your first start is a tall task. This just doesn’t feel like a spot where Denver is going to get upset. They’re one of the biggest favorites of Week 1 for a reason. This one should be fairly simple against a Titans team that’s still figuring itself out. But if Ward goes out there and lights it up, it’d be pretty cool to see.

Seahawks 27-24 49ers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

Only the higher powers know what the 49ers are going to look like in this game. Jauan Jennings should play thanks to his contract being restructured, but there are still so many questions at WR. And that defense will take a minute to figure itself out. Seattle is simply the team with less unknowns, so I’ll trust them to take this one at home. I think JSN and the rest of the Seahawks offense could be in for a big game against a San Francisco defense with a lot of moving parts.

Packers 26-20 Lions

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Best game of the week? Some people are saying so. It’s hard to disagree — rivalry game in a national window with the best team from the 2024 regular season and a trendy Super Bowl pick that just made the move of the offseason. It’ll be a fun one. I’m really interested to see how both of these teams look, because there’s a chance that they each shut up the naysayers or prove them right. The Lions could come out sluggish on both sides of the ball due to all they lost in the offseason, or they could look like the same team from a year ago and put those doubts to bed. The Packers could come out and dominate and look like the contender we think they can be, or they can fall flat like they did last year in this matchup at home. I can see it going any which way. But, for Week 1, I think the Packers are in a better spot, and I won’t pick against them at home.

Rams 23-20 Texans

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

I really wanted to pick the Texans here because of their superior defense. I think these offenses match up well with one another, although I have doubts about Houston’s ability to run the ball. I think CJ Stroud and company will be able to throw it on the Rams’ young secondary while a potentially limited Matt Stafford might struggle against the Texans elite D. But something’s just pulling me towards the Rams pulling this one out late. It’s just a feeling. My mind’s telling me Houston, but my body says LA.

Bills 23-20 Ravens

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

As exciting as this matchup is, I haven’t given much thought to the Ravens winning it. It’s obviously a very possible outcome — this game is practically a toss-up, and I’ve said that I like Baltimore’s roster more. It’s more about Buffalo for me; it’s the first game of their final season at the Ralph, and it feels like they’re going to come out with their hair on fire. If their defense can do just enough to make Lamar Jackson a little uncomfortable, I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to do the rest and pull this one out late. But, there’s also a world where Lamar and Derrick Henry go nuclear and they pull off the mini-upset. I think I’ll stick with my gut.

Vikings 24-17 Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

This is unironically the biggest game in Chicago since the 2018 Wild Card game against Philadelphia. The Bears and their fans have been waiting for the Ben Johnson era to begin, hoping that it’s as exciting and fruitful as they think it’s going to be. I think Kevin O’Connell and more particularly Brian Flores have other ideas. I trust Minnesota’s defense even if I’m not big on their talent on the backend. I think their new offensive line will hold up against a stout Bears front. I worry about JJ McCarthy making his first career start, but I have to believe that he’ll be up for the moment. And while I don’t expect Caleb Williams to look bad by any means, I need to see this offense legitimately cook against a worthy defense to buy in. You can bet your bottom dollar that I will be watching Johnson and Caleb with great interest on Monday night.

Week 2 Picks

Playoff rematches and high-profile primetime showdowns highlight an exciting Week 2 slate that’s sure to deliver. Here’s how I see it playing out.

Cover photo taken from NBC Chicago.

Last Week/Season Total: 9-7

Bills 27-24 Dolphins

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

I hate to be one to play trends, but Josh Allen has never lost on a Thursday, and he’s 11-2 in his career against the Dolphins. Not only that, but he’s put up massive numbers against Miami in the last few years.

I understand that Buffalo’s offense looks different now than it did then, but that didn’t stop Allen from being one of the most productive QBs in football last week. And I know Miami’s offense is incredible, but no team knows them better than the Bills. So, I’ll ride the trends.

Cowboys 31-17 Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Again, I don’t know what the Saints are going to look like. I take little to no stock in a blowout win over the Panthers.

But, I do know what the Cowboys are: one of the best, most well-rounded teams in the league that never loses at home. They should have this one easily.

Lions 24-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I’m not sure why Vegas thinks this one won’t be too close, considering the Bucs took the Lions to the brink in the playoffs last year and are coming off a very impressive offensive showing in Week 1. But, they have one thing right: the Lions win was far more impressive.

Combine that with the fact that Detroit has the better roster from top to bottom and are continuing to get better on defense, and I’ll take them to win a close, entertaining game.

Colts 23-17 Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I’m not going to pick a Malik Willis-led football team to win a game against a competent team until I see it actually happen. The Packers defense is good enough to keep them in the game at home, but I think Indianapolis has the QB advantage, and that should put them over the top.

Titans 23-20 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Titans didn’t give up a point on defense on the road last year, and now come home to play a Jets team that has no idea what they are offensively. Smells like an upset.

I have no faith in Will Levis, and the Titans offense isn’t very good, but this just feels like a spot where they pull out a win. Law of averages, if you will.

Either that, or I’m the Jets’ No. 1 hater. That’s also likely.

49ers 27-17 Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The 49ers are already a much better team than the Vikings are. Then you remember that Sam Darnold was in San Francisco last year, and the Niners defense will know how to most effectively stop him, and you realize that this game really shouldn’t be close at all, no matter how intimidating Minnesota’s homefield advantage is.

Seahawks 20-17 Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I worry about the Seahawks going all the way across the country, and I think the Patriots could ride some momentum from last week’s upset win into their home opener. But this is simply a situation where I’m picking a team that’s clearly better and hoping for the best.

Giants 23-20 Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I’ve seen this film before. And I never like the ending.

Picking us to lose to the Giants is like taking candy from a baby. It feels wrong, but it’s just too damn easy.

For some reason, Daniel Jones always decides to play like an NFL QB for two games of the year: the two matchups against Washington. Meanwhile, we decide to play like pumpkins, even at home against a divisional opponent.

It doesn’t matter that all signs on paper point to a Washington win. New York’s front seven will find a way to make life hell for Jayden Daniels in his home debut, and Jones and the Giants offense will somehow put up massive numbers (Malik Nabers breakout game loading?) en route to a win that will make all of us scratch our heads. Again.

Chargers 20-10 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Do I even need to comment on the Panthers and their matchups on any given week? Not until they show me that I should. Just pick against them and move forward.

Jaguars 22-19 Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This game is going to be ugly, but I also think it’s going to be fun. Not that it’s fun watching Deshaun Watson play QB, but these are two good rosters and two well-coached football teams that should give us a good game.

That being said, I’m not going to trust the offense led by Waston to win the game. I’d much rather back Trevor Lawrence, especially at home, to get the job done.

Ravens 30-13 Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Biggest blowout of Week 2 loading… next!

Rams 24-23 Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

It’s a bit of a risk to back the Rams with all of their injury concerns, but as I said earlier, I still trust them under Sean McVay and Matt Stafford no matter what.

The Cardinals looked good last week — that is, until they didn’t — but I think I still need to see more out of their offense. I would love for this to be the game that Marvin Harrison Jr. bursts onto the scene. But more than that, their defense fell apart down the stretch, and I think Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Co. can pick them apart just enough.

Broncos 16-13 Steelers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Week 2’s equivalent of NyQuil. I’m just picking the home team with the great homefield advantage and moving on.

Chiefs 27-19 Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Week 2 Bengals may or may not be better than the Week 1 Bengals, but even if they are, they’re not good enough to beat the best team in the league.

Joe Burrow always plays Patrick Mahomes close, but I think the Chiefs are simply too good to lose this game at home. I hope it’s close and I hope it’s entertaining, but I just don’t think it will be.

Texans 26-20 Bears

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

This is being touted as a high-profile battle between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. But, what it actually is is a battle between a top-five quarterback in CJ Stroud and a rookie with — until proven otherwise — more hype than substance in Caleb Williams.

The Texans are the better team from top to bottom with the better quarterback and a raucous home crowd in primetime. It’s their game to lose.

Eagles 24-17 Falcons

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Falcons offense is a mess. I don’t know how they’re supposed to move the ball with Kirk Cousins’ limitations coming off the Achilles injury.

I know the Eagles have question marks of their own with their defense, but at least I know what their offense is. And though Atlanta’s got a good D of their own, I don’t know if they have the offense to overcome Philly on the road.

Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back, and so am I. My fifth season of previews and power rankings begins with my game picks for Week 1. Excited to get the ball back rolling with a fun opening slate of games this weekend.

Cover photo taken from NY Post.

Last Season: 176-99

Chiefs 24-17 Ravens

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

There will be two important things to consider leading up to Thursday night’s opener.

First off is that the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. Their threepeat journey has to start somewhere. Sure, Rashee Rice has dealt with a world of trouble this offseason and Hollywood Brown won’t play. But that just means a lot of people are going to continue to learn the name Xavier Worthy. Not to mention there’s a certain Travis Kelce lining up out there as well. And let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter who’s catching the football as long as Patrick Mahomes is the one throwing it.

The second thing is that this is not the same Ravens team from a year ago. Several key defensive departures and the smokescreen of a signing of Derrick Henry lead me to believe that Baltimore is going to see a bit of a dropoff. Sure, Henry still has some gas in the tank, but he didn’t run for 100 or more yards against any playoff team on Tennessee’s schedule last year. And we’re about to see firsthand the impact of losing Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and several others.

Lamar Jackson will keep any game close to be sure, but I think Kansas City should feel comfortable from start to finish, dictating the game on both sides of the ball.

Packers 27-20 Eagles

Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock

Samba de Janeiro starts playing

The NFL’s first game in Brazil should be a fun one. The media darling Packers — who enter the season with Super Bowl-level expectations — taking on the butt of last year’s jokes in the Eagles, who should be improved this season.

Both of these teams are good with seemingly less holes than they had a year ago. The Eagles shored up their secondary — at least on paper — as did the Packers, who also look elite offensively. So, it seems that not much separates these teams at a glance.

But I’m not picking a team led by Nick Sirianni to win a game like this. Philadelphia is a team I have less and less faith in by the week, and while they match up well here, I’m not going to pick them until they show me that I should.

Falcons 20-17 Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

I officially dub this the “Quarterbacks Drafted Later Than They Would’ve Liked In 2012 To Be Backups But Ended Up Being Great For That Team Then Had Rather Uneventful Stints On Their Second Team Before Finding Themselves On A Third Team Being One Bad Game Away From Being A Celtics Shaq-Type Meme” Bowl.

I feel like I know what to expect from Kirk Cousins — despite this being his first game in almost a full year after recovering from an Achilles tear — while I have no idea what to expect from Russell Wilson. Moreover, I know that Atlanta will be improved on both sides of the ball with their plethora of offseason acquisitions, while Pittsburgh just strikes me as the same old mid team they’ve been for years now.

It’ll be close, and it’ll probably be ugly. But give me the home team with the better offense to pull it out when it matters late.

Bills 30-17 Cardinals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Sure, the Cardinals could be frisky this year. But not in this game.

The Bills are far too sound on both sides of the ball and should be one of the most fun teams to watch this season. Arizona will have their time to shine, but this long road trip against a formidable opponent will be a tough one.

That being said, I will be there no matter what for Marvin Harrison Jr.’s professional debut. His Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign has to start somewhere, right?

Bears 24-13 Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Welcome to the Caleb Williams show. Let’s have some fun, shall we?

Tennessee is a team that could contend for the top pick in the draft next April. Chicago is a team with arguably the single most-improved roster in football and the next great talent under center. This game should not be close.

Bengals 28-10 Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

See: above.

New England is a mess right now. Nothing about that roster or coaching staff really gives me hope. And while Cincinnati has dealt with some drama this offseason with the Ja’Marr Chase holdout in addition to some uncertainty about Joe Burrow in his first game back, this realistically shouldn’t be too big of a challenge for them.

Colts 23-20 Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Texans are unquestionably the biggest media darling in the AFC, and for good reason. They have a bonafide top 5 star QB in C.J. Stroud to lead a supremely talented offense to complement an elite, young defense. And, they’re led by one of the most promising young head coaches in football in DeMeco Ryans.

But the Colts have a good young team too. And this Colts team beat Houston last year when Anthony Richardson was healthy — and nearly did when he wasn’t. Who’s to say it won’t happen again?

Divisional teams know each other extremely well. Shane Steichen knows what Ryans and Bobby Slowik want to do. At home, with Richardson back and a whole host of offensive talent, I like Indy’s chances to pull a mini-upset of sorts. At the very least, I think they’re being overlooked. If nobody else wants to give them some love, I’ll be the one to do it.

Dolphins 28-20 Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

You like offense? Come on down to South Florida. The sun is beaming, the weather is warm, the ghastly cold isn’t anywhere close yet, so the ball will be flying around and the points will be added to the scoreboard with swiftness.

Until our clocks fall back an hour in two months, I feel good about Miami’s chances to win most football games. Anyone should; it’s a remarkably talented team with arguably the league’s best offense.

But I won’t fall for the same fugazi as everyone did last year. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there; I just wanted to get it out of the way early.

Saints 20-13 Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

You like offense? Don’t come anywhere near New Orleans on Sunday.

I have zero faith in either of these teams to accomplish anything this year, or even anywhere in the near future. Both franchises are doomed in my estimation, largely due to stubborn and/or incompetent management that has failed to build a good roster.

Sure, the Saints are fine on paper from top to bottom, but they’re still trotting Derek Carr out there. (Side note: what’s the over/under on weeks until Spencer Rattler is starting? 4.5? Lower?) And the Panthers… the Panthers are just sad.

To make a not-so-long story short, the better of two bad teams will win a bad football game that nobody wants to watch.

Giants 21-20 Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

See: above.

The Vikings, at least, have some reasons to watch them. The biggest one wears No. 18.

The Giants on the other hand, don’t.

But! Something compels me to switch things up a bit here. Nobody expects the Giants to win. Nobody wants to even look at their 100th anniversary throwbacks (which aren’t nearly as bad as everyone thinks). Nobody wants to watch Daniel Jones play quarterback (okay, fair).

I just think Minnesota is going to be worse than people realize. This isn’t the year Sam Darnold is going to magically figure things out. It’s a talented offense, but that’s about it. I can see New York’s defense making some plays here and there to help pull out a bit of a surprise win to open the season. And Giants fans should enjoy it, because there won’t be many more afterwards.

Chargers 17-14 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Everyone seems to be under the impression that the Chargers will magically turn into a playoff team under Jim Harbaugh. I’m here to tell you that will not be the case. The roster simply has too many holes right now, though I believe Harbaugh will turn them into a contender within the next few years.

That being said, Los Angeles is a better team with far better coaching than Las Vegas. I can respect this game being close with it being in the division — and it being low-scoring with both offenses being subpar — but I feel confident in the Chargers pulling this one out.

Broncos 24-23 Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Another upset! Why not? I’m feeling generous.

Moreover, I know what the Broncos are going to look like. Spoiler alert: it’s a lot like Oregon last year (and apparently this year, for that matter). It’ll be a lot of dink and dunk — death by a thousand papercuts, if you will. And while that didn’t work for Russell Wilson, it’ll work perfectly for Bo Nix.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Broncos will be very good this year. But I don’t have very high hopes for Seattle, either. Neither team stands out to me much, so I’m just going to roll the dice with another overlooked underdog led by a rookie QB who has experienced a multitude of environments like the one he’s walking into on Sunday.

Cowboys 23-17 Browns

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

I’m very compelled to pick the Browns in most games, considering their elite roster and game-changing defense.

But, when your quarterback is Deshaun Watson, it becomes difficult to pick you to win games.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, have a great roster of their own with a quarterback I trust a lot more (in this spot, at least). Even in a tough road environment against a challenging defense, I’m far more compelled to take Dallas in this game. It wouldn’t shock me to see it go the other way, but I just don’t feel comfortable putting my eggs in that basket.

Commanders 23-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

To heck with it.

This game gives me the same vibes as the 2012 opener. On the road against a solid NFC South team for the first start for the Heisman-winning No. 2 pick in the draft — a game that looks like a loss on paper, but could wind up being quite the win.

My trend of the week is clearly overlooked underdogs, and I don’t feel crazy saying that we’re one of them. I don’t think Tampa Bay is all that; sure they were fine last year and retained much of the roster, but I don’t have the highest hopes for any team led by Baker Mayfield, although Washington’s defense doesn’t pose much of a threat.

At the end of the day, I don’t see any reason why Jayden Daniels shouldn’t go out there and have a good game en route to a win. The book isn’t necessarily out on him yet just from LSU tape, and I think his effectiveness as a runner could help put Washington over the top for an opening-week win.

Lions 27-24 Rams

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The schedule-makers cooked this one. This playoff game was amazing last year, and the storylines continue to be juicy. Now, both teams are back and better and should deliver us another great one.

On paper, I feel like there’s not much that separates these squads. Neither roster really has any holes, and as we saw in January, they match up quite well with one another. I default to the Lions because of that game, and the homefield advantage, but I wrestled with this one. It could clearly go either way, but I’m not stressing about it too much. It’s just Week 1, after all.

More than anything, I’m looking forward to a banger to kick off Sunday Night Football in 2024.

49ers 27-14 Jets

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN

This is kind of the antithesis of SNF. Both teams that appear good on paper, but only one of them is. Spoiler alert: it’s the one that was one play away from winning the Super Bowl last season.

The Jets weren’t gonna be good last year even if Aaron Rodgers was healthy. And even if he plays this whole year, they still won’t be very good. It’s a roster with no shortage of question marks led by a coach I have concerns about and a 40-year old quarterback who has made infinitely more headlines for off-the-field shenanigans than on-the-field success in the last several years.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are still the class of the NFC and will find themselves back in the Super Bowl in a few months’ time. They’re significantly better than the Jets with a vastly better coaching staff, and it will show on Monday night in the Bay.