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2025 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl Predictions

It’s time to be wrong. We’ve previewed each of the league’s 32 teams; now it’s time to see how it’ll all play out in the postseason. Hopefully this isn’t the disaster that I’ve been known to produce in the past.

Cover photo taken from The SportsRush.

It’s time to be wrong. We’ve previewed each of the league’s 32 teams; now it’s time to see how it’ll all play out in the postseason. Last time I did this, I predicted the Super Bowl correctly (Chiefs over 49ers in 2023), so I’ve got a reputation to uphold here. Hopefully this isn’t the disaster that I’ve been known to produce in the past.

First, a look at the playoff picture:

NFC Standings

1 – Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
2 – Green Bay Packers (12-5)
3 – Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
5 – San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
6 – Washington Commanders (11-6)
7 – Detroit Lions (10-7)

AFC Standings

1 – Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
2 – Buffalo Bills (14-3)
3 – Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4 – Houston Texans (10-7)
5 – Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
6 – Denver Broncos (11-6)
7 – Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

And now, for the playoff prediction:

Wild Card Weekend

Buccaneers over 49ers

Better team wins a real toss-up. Home-field advantage and an offense with more playmakers puts the Bucs over the top in a shootout.

Packers over Lions

Lambeau finally holds its own as a fortress as Green Bay’s defense proves to be the difference-maker in a hard-fought divisional game.

Commanders over Rams

Jayden Daniels’ homecoming is an explosive one against an inexperienced Rams secondary with Washington winning an exciting road playoff game with plenty of burgundy and gold in the stands.

Texans over Chargers

See: last year’s playoff game.

Ravens over Broncos

Denver’s defense keeps Baltimore’s offense in check for a bit, but the Ravens’ overwhelming talent breaks through late for a close, hard-fought win.

Bills over Bengals

The wheels fall off Cincinnati’s defense as Josh Allen and the Bills get revenge for the 2022 Divisional.

Divisional Round

Eagles over Commanders

Sigh. We’ll see if the idea of revenge fires us up, but I still just don’t know if we have what it takes to keep up with the Birds right now. I’d love to be proven wrong.

Packers over Buccaneers

Tampa can’t keep up in the frozen tundra as the Packers offense explodes for a dominant win to get back to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2020.

Chiefs over Texans

See: last year’s playoff game.

Bills over Ravens

See: last year’s playoff game. I think Baltimore is the best team from top to bottom in the league, but until I see them win in January, I’ll trust what my eyes have seen repeatedly before picking them to finally win it all.

Championship Weekend

Packers over Eagles

Someone has to beat them, right? The Micah Parsons trade makes the Packers a bonafide Super Bowl contender, despite some of their shortcomings in the secondary. This feels like a year that it can all come together for them — from Jordan Love’s ascendancy to Micah’s game-wrecking ability off the edge, I think they’re able to go on the road and knock off the team that’s been the class of the NFC in recent years. Or so I hope.

Chiefs over Bills

Like I said with the Ravens, I actually have to see the Bills win this game to predict them to do so. I do think it’s a matter of when, not if, that Buffalo and/or Baltimore finally knocks off Kansas City. But it’s not for me to say that it’ll be now. I need to see it to believe it. If Buffalo winds up hosting this game, they’d almost have to win it — there would be no better way to send off the Ralph than finally getting the Mahomes monkey off their back and get back to the Super Bowl. And the thought of opening the new stadium with a banner dropping gives you chills. I genuinely hope that it happens. But I’ve seen this film before. We know how it ends.

Super Bowl LX Prediction

(you guys are gonna hate me for this)

Chiefs over Packers

I said it when I picked Patrick Mahomes to win MVP: this season screams 2022 for the Chiefs. That season, everyone wrote them off only for them to go on a run where Mahomes took home that award en route to another ring and Super Bowl MVP.

Well, here we are again. Everyone is discarding the Chiefs after they got crushed in Super Bowl LIX against the Eagles and once again pushing their chips towards the center of the table for Baltimore and Buffalo. Well, only one active quarterback has ever beaten Mahomes in the AFC playoffs, and his defense ain’t getting him to a position where he can do it again. So, to pick KC to get back to the big game feels simple enough.

This would be a very tough test against what’s going to be a vaunted defensive front, but we’ve seen the Chiefs get the job done in this spot time and time again. As I always say, it’s simply them until proven otherwise.

2025 NFL Awards Predictions

I give my picks for each of the 2025 NFL season’s year-end awards, with plenty of chalk and surprises to go around.

Cover photo taken from The SportsRush.

Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes

Boring, isn’t it? I know, I know. But, to put it plainly, it just feels like it’s his time again. This season screams 2022 for the Chiefs in my eyes: a year where everyone wrote them off before Mahomes ripped off an MVP season and they won the Super Bowl. More on that later, though. Even with Rashee Rice being suspended for the first six games of the year, I think this Kansas City offense is going to be much improved from a year ago thanks to way better pass protection and a less reckless Mahomes. He’s going to get back to his usual ways and have an efficient and productive season to claim this award for the third time in his illustrious young career.

Offensive Player of the Year: Derrick Henry

As much as I wanted to give OPOY to one of the younger backs in the league like Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson, sometimes you’ve gotta trust the vets. Henry has shown no signs of slowing down and is once again going to reap the benefits of playing in the perfect offense for him. He could very easily have another 1,800-plus yard, 15-plus touchdown season because of how dynamic his backfield is with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Plus, I’ve got this sneaky feeling that the Ravens wind up being the top team in the league this year, in which case Lamar could win MVP again. But, since I’m giving that to Patrick, I’ll give OPOY to the King.

Defensive Player of the Year: Will Anderson Jr.

This feels like the year that Anderson breaks out and emerges as one of the league’s elite pass-rushers. He’s been flirting with greatness ever since he was drafted with seven sacks as rookie followed up by 11 last season. 2025 just feels like where the fun begins. It helps to have another star pass rusher on the other end of the line in Danielle Hunter. I can see a world where Anderson leads the league in sacks with a number close to 20, anchoring what could be the best defense in the league. I can even see this award going to his teammate Derek Stingley Jr. if he winds up being the best player on that side of the ball. In any case, this Texans defense is going to be awesome again, and I think that materializes in someone in Houston taking home some hardware.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ashton Jeanty

Again, it’s a little chalky, but it’s hard to say no to Jeanty right now. Cam Ward is in a tricky spot, there’s no clear-cut star WR that can take it and all the other sleepers are sleepers for a reason. It feels like Jeanty’s award to lose. He’s in a perfect situation and an offense that’s going to rely on him a ton. He’ll be an every-down bellcow who will get 20-25 touches a game and likely put up the best numbers we’ve seen from a rookie back since Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley at the end of the 2010s.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Mike Green

This award could honestly go an infinite number of ways. The safe pick is Abdul Carter, the flashy pick is Travis Hunter and there’s numerous talented first-rounders that could take it home. For some reason, Green’s name is calling out to me. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s a first-round talent that was an absolute steal for Baltimore in the second round. Maybe it’s the fact that the Ravens will be playing in a number of highly-profiled standalone games where Green will be able to make a name for himself. Maybe it was me blindly throwing a dart at a board. But I think he’ll have a high sack total on a great team, and that’ll be enough to get him the votes.

Comeback Player of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson

Yes, we like quarterbacks. JJ McCarthy and Dak Prescott each have a great shot to win this award because they’re both in positions to put up some really good numbers in elite offenses. But, sometimes the story is what wins this one. And for Hutch to come back from a horribly gruesome leg injury and put up the numbers that we know he can, I feel like it’d have to go to him. Could that injury deter him from being on the crazy run he was on before getting hurt last year? Maybe. But I’ll choose the route of optimism and say that he’ll be close to the league lead in sacks again — a testament to resilience, strength and mental fortitude.

Protector of the Year: Lane Johnson

Oh look, a new award! I’m fond of this one — I think it’s dope that offensive linemen will be recognized with some hardware, because they’ve eternally been the unsung heroes of football. Imagine if this was around when Orlando Pace or Anthony Muñoz were playing. In any case, this one goes to Lane Johnson as a combination of another dominant season at RT in Philadelphia and a bit of a lifetime achievement award for being one of the league’s best tackles for over a decade. Are there better, younger LTs out there? Maybe. If a guy like Tristan Wirfs took this home, you’d hear no argument from me. But this is the type of award that a guy like Johnson deserves for being so damn good for so damn long.

Coach of the Year: Matt LaFleur

I had very high hopes for the Packers this season before they traded for Micah Parsons. Now, those hopes have gone skyward. I think they’re going to make a real push at the 1-seed in the NFC and contend for a Super Bowl. With that being said, I’ll take LaFleur to take this award home as the head coach of the team that feels destined to make the most headlines in 2025. While I’m not the fondest of him, I think his offense is going to be really good this season, and his defense should be vastly improved. If Green Bay winds up as a top-two seed come January, the award should be his.

32 Teams in 32 Days: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are primed to not just get back to the playoffs, but potentially make a deep postseason push with an elite offense and an improving defense.

Cover photo taken from Getty Images.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

Our long-awaited series finale takes us to Tampa, where the Buccaneers are primed to not just get back to the playoffs, but potentially make a deep postseason push with an elite offense and an improving defense.

Considering a number of factors — this team just won the division, is favored to repeat and I’m running behind schedule (sorry!) — I’ll try to keep this one brief. Plus, we pretty much know everything there is to know about this Tampa Bay squad.

It starts with the offense, which was must-see TV a year ago and figures to be the same this season. And that offense starts with Baker Mayfield, who has shut me and many a pundit completely up by completely reviving his career with the Bucs. Behind Mayfield and OC Liam Cohen — who has since infamously departed for Jacksonville — this unit was a wagon in 2024, ranking 5th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate with a highly efficient and balanced offensive attack. Even with a number of injuries at receiver to guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, this passing attack was a fearsome one, and last year’s rookie stud Bucky Irving made a massive impact as a do-it all back.

Plus, this offensive line was nothing short of elite, ranking fifth in pass block win rate and sixth in run block win rate. Standout blindside blocker Tristan Wirfs led the league in the former and ranked first by PFF in pass blocking among tackles, but is recovering from offseason knee surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. Still, with guys like Luke Goedeke, Cody Mauch and Graham Barton holding things down, this will be a fantastic OL once again.

There might not be a better left tackle in football. (h/t Pewter Report)

Honestly, this offense could be even better than it was last year with some new juice at receiver. The Bucs took Ohio State legend Emeka Egbuka with in the first round and might be able to squeeze the most out of seventh-rounder Tez Johnson from Oregon. With Evans and Godwin aging and second-year stud Jalen McMillan recovering from a neck injury, keep an eye out for those two youngins.

It was the other side of the ball that led to Tampa’s undoing last season. This defense was just 17th in EPA/play, and although their front was stout against the run at eighth in rushing success rate, their secondary was a major weakness, clocking in at 27th in dropback success rate. The defensive line could get after the passer with the 11th-highest pass rush win rate in the league, but against the run, they were second-worst. It was very Jekyll and Hyde, and when it mattered most, it bit them in a big way.

With guys like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey in the middle, this figures to be a difficult defense to run on. There isn’t a blue-chip edge rusher, but YaYa Diaby and Logan Hall are some solid young pieces and newcomer Haason Reddick should give them a boost. The backend will hope to get massive contributions from third-round selection Jacob Parrish, who I was really high on coming out of Kansas State. He’s too small to play outside, but he performs above his size and could be a very effective nickel in Todd Bowles’ scheme. Second-round pick Benjamin Morrison — another one of my favorite DBs in this class — is recovering from a preseason hamstring injury, but when he returns, he should help raise the unit as a boundary corner opposite of Jamel Dean. And Antoine Winfield Jr. is solid as always as a free safety.

X-Factor: The Secondary

For some reason, this unit just refuses to gel. They don’t have a clear-cut lockdown CB1 who can go MEG against a guy like AJ Brown or Ja’Marr Chase, which is fine, but can undoubtedly bite them in a big game. Their safeties are better against the pass than the run, but that doesn’t always show up when the corners are getting dusted. If the rookies can provide the juice that Bowles was looking for when drafting them, I think it’ll pay off in a huge way. An improved secondary is genuinely the only thing that stands in the way of the Buccaneers truly contending for the NFC.

Team MVP: QB Baker Mayfield
Bellissimo. (h/t AP Photo)

The Baker renaissance in Tampa has been a delight to watch. He has finally found a place to call home that trusts him and believes in him, and he is excelling because of it. Last season, he was 6th in EPA+CPOE, 5th in success rate, 13th in QBR, third in passing, second in touchdowns and fourth in passer rating. Joe Burrow was the only other QB in football to throw for over 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Pretty good company to keep. This will be Mayfield’s third consecutive season with a new OC as Josh Grizzard gets the promotion from pass game coordinator, but considering the existing relationship there, I expect another really productive and exciting season from the unlikeliest of top-12 quarterbacks.

Breakout Candidate: WR Emeka Egbuka

If you want a sleeper/value pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, you’re looking at it right now. Obviously, Emeka is my guy, but I think his talent and potential is well-known at this point. Ohio State’s all-time leader in receptions wasn’t drafted in the first round for no reason. The Bucs may have had other needs, but they took the best player available, and I think it’s going to pay dividends. Egbuka is their WR1 in waiting, but he could claim that role as a rookie. He’s smooth and silky with soft hands and underrated physicality that allows him to excel as a true three-level threat. He can do the dirty work underneath, go across the middle in the intermediate or take the top off the defense if you cut him loose. The one thing lacking in this Tampa WR room last year was top-end speed. Now they have it and then some.

Record Prediction: 11-6

Could the Panthers or Falcons make a jump and surprise some people by winning the division? Sure. Anything is possible. But the Bucs feel like a shoe-in to win the NFC South for the fifth year in a row — although it’s oftentimes by the skin of their teeth. This team is too talented from top to bottom, and even though the coaching isn’t amazing by any means, it clears any other team in their division. It’s a manageable schedule by their standards, and I think an improved secondary and some more youth on offense will put them in a position to potentially go on a little bit of a run once the playoffs roll around.

32 Teams in 32 Days: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are trying their best to put a contending roster on the field, but still have some deficiencies to overcome, particularly on defense.

Cover photo taken from Imagn Images.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

Our second-to-last venture of the series takes us down to Atlanta where the Falcons are trying their best to put a contending roster on the field, but still have some deficiencies to overcome, particularly on defense.

I feel like the story around the Falcons is that there is no story. Of all the teams entering year two with a 2024 first-round quarterback, Atlanta is the most boring because there’s just nothing to latch onto. I guess that’s not their fault, but as the clear-cut second-best team in their own division with a lack of clear direction, I feel like this franchise has fallen by the wayside.

But, I still think there’s hope in Atlanta. That mostly stems from Michael Penix Jr., who I believe can be a very good — maybe not great, though — quarterback in this league. We hardly got a glimpse of him last year, and he expectedly flashed some epic highs and some concerning lows. I was at his second start in Washington, and every throw was a coinflip between an absolute seed and a horribly inaccurate duck. But, for what it’s worth in those final three games he ranked 11th in EPA+CPOE and 8th in success rate. So the highs outweighed the lows. With a full offseason under his belt as the starting QB surrounded by some great offensive talent, I think he’ll have a very solid season.

It’ll help that he has absolute blue-chip studs at RB and WR. Bijan Robinson has turned into the player we all knew he could be: a top-5 runningback who’s arguably the shiftiest player in the league and an ultimate weapon out of the backfield. And, for my money, Drake London is a top-10 receiver in football. He’s simply a matchup nightmare — a guy of his size should not move as well as he does, and he’s unguardable at the catch point.

I do worry that the rest of this offense is lacking in playmakers, but Bijan and London can clearly carry a big load. And if Kyle Pitts breaks out… you know what, nevermind. But with a hobbled Kirk Cousins at QB for most of last year, this unit was still 13th in EPA/play and a whopping fourth in success rate, including first (!) in rushing success rate. That’s a testament to an offensive line that punches above its weight and a blue-chip back.

What’s in store for this duo in 2025? (h/t Imagn Images)

The defense, on the other hand, is still a concern. Atlanta did their best to finally gain a pass rush by drafting two former stars in the SEC, taking Georgia OLB Jalon Walker with the No. 11 overall pick, then — inexplicably, in my opinion — trading a 2026 first-rounder to the Rams to move up to No. 27 overall to take Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. Time will tell if that move was a smart one, but I just don’t like it. But, I can see a world where they form the best young edge rush duo in football, which the Falcons are sure hoping for. This defensive line was 27th in pass rush win rate and 26th in run stop win rate a year ago, and Atlanta famously hasn’t had a double-digit sack edge rusher since John Abraham in 2008. Maybe Walker or Pearce finally breaks the curse.

In any case, that side of the ball was the priority this offseason, as the Falcons brought in a whole host of names at every level: Divine Deablo, Leonard Floyd and Jordan Fuller as free agents plus Xavier Watts, Billy Bowman and the aforementioned edge rushers in the draft. And there was already plenty of talent on this defense with AJ Terrell, Jessie Bates, and some young guys like Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison. The way I see it, if a defensive-minded head coach in Raheem Morris can’t figure it out with these guys, I don’t know when he will. I’m not a huge fan of him as a HC, and his defense being 20th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate last year was pretty baffling. Assuming the offense does its thing — pretty contingent on Penix — this defense could be the difference between making a playoff push and having a redux of 2024.

X-Factor: The Defensive Line

On that note, this DL — particularly the pass rush — will need to be the difference-maker if this team wants to do what they couldn’t last year. The Falcons lost their last two games of the year in overtime to miss out on the playoffs, and in each games, they simply couldn’t get after the quarterback. This team was 31st in sacks last season, but what’s even crazier is that they haven’t ranked in the top-1o in sacks since 2004. That was four presidents ago. Again, Atlanta made the moves they did in order to get after QBs this season. If it was all for nothing, you might as well copy paste last season to this one.

Team MVP: RB Bijan Robinson
Lightning in a bottle. (h/t PFF)

Very few backs that I’ve ever watched have a skillset like Bijan. His shiftiness is on another level and he’s impossible to bring down in the open field or on first contact. You’ve gotta fly to the ball when it’s in his hands, or you’ll be staring at the back of his jersey as he runs to the endzone. Last year was his true breakout, racking up 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in addition to 61 receptions, 431 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air. He’s an ultimate Swiss army knife that’s going first overall in many fantasy drafts for a reason. I think he’ll make a real push at Offensive Player of the Year this season.

Breakout Candidate: DE Jalon Walker

I had to pick one of the first-rounders, and I’m taking Walker simply because I believe in him more. He might not have had the production in college, but he’s got a more natural twitch to him, which is what caused his stock to rise and Pearce’s to fall. At 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, he’s a little small for the edge rusher that the Falcons drafted him to be, but I think his athleticism and burst can help him get the job done in the pros. Besides, he’s more of an outside linebacker, so Morris can use him in a lot of different, unique ways. His length and quickness will undoubtedly help this run defense, and if he plays above his size and fine-tunes his edge rushing, he can be a very productive player for years to come.

Record Prediction: 8-9

I’ve sprinkled it in across this preview, but I just feel like this is going to be 2024 part two for the Falcons. Do I think their defense could be better? Sure. But I need to see it to believe it. Do I think they’re going to get better quarterback play? Probably. But Penix still might have some growing pains (kind of insane to say about a 25-year old, but alas). And I’m just not terribly fond of this coaching staff. Combine that with a tricky schedule against the likes of the NFC West, AFC East and teams like Washington and Minnesota, and finishing above .500 feels like an uphill climb.

Next up: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

32 Teams in 32 Days: New England Patriots

The Patriots rebuild seems to be going swimmingly, but they still might be a year away with some clear strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We close out the AFC East with arguably its most discussed team this offseason as the Patriots rebuild seems to be going swimmingly, but they still might be a year away with some clear strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

I’ll start by saying that I think New England has made all the right moves this offseason. Firing Jerod Mayo after finishing 4-13 was a tough call, but when you replace him with a guy like Mike Vrabel, who doesn’t just get Patriot football like few else do, but is also a tremendous head coach, it’s a no-brainer. And when you know you have a stud at quarterback with Drake Maye, beefing up his protection and giving him some more weapons on offense while bolstering the defense behind him certainly helps a ton.

The best news for Maye is that his protection simply can’t be as bad as it was in 2024. This offensive line was 31st in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block in rate while allowing 52 sacks, the fifth-most in football. It’s safe to say this was the single worst OL in the league, which made their selection of LSU OT Will Campbell Jr. an easy one. A lot of people think he has short arms and might be a better guard than tackle, but the tape doesn’t lie; this dude is a straight up animal who abused SEC defensive ends with his raw strength and elite technique. He’s going to be a hell of a blindside blocker for Maye. They also drafted Georgia center Jared Wilson in the third round: an athletic freak who can use his size to push around opposing three-techs all day. He’ll be a guard in the pros, which almost works better for him. Combine those selections with the free agent acquisitions of center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses, and you’ve got a completely overhauled and much improved offensive line. Thank God for that.

We should be seeing a lot less of this. (h/t Boston.com)

Honestly, last year’s OL being as bad as it was made Drake Maye’s season that much more impressive. The numbers certainly don’t jump off the page, but his tape was extremely promising. And he was still 20th in EPA+CPOE, 17th in success rate and 17th in QBR despite running for his life on every single play. Compare that to a guy like Caleb Williams… I’m just saying.

Still, the rest of the offense needed work. That side of the ball was an eye sore with no real playmakers, finishing 27th in EPA play, 30th in rush EPA, 31st in total offense, 32nd in passing and 30th in scoring. Well, the Pats seemed to have nailed the offseason there, too. Drafting RB TreVeyon Henderson in the second round kills about four birds with one stone, giving Maye a home run threat as a runner and a receiver with elite burst and top-end speed. Third-round pick Kyle Williams is a technician on the outside who gets to learn under free agent acquisition Stefon Diggs, who has a penchant for helping out young QBs. And, for what it’s worth, Pop Douglas had his moments last year, and Mack Hollins is a solid depth piece. New/returning OC Josh McDaniels has some pretty nice toys to play with. All in all, this offense should be infinitely better in 2025. Low bar, I know.

This defense was also pretty awful last year, finishing 30th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate while the defensive line was 23rd in pass rush win rate and 17th in run stop win rate. Well, they put their money where the mouth is to overhaul that side of the ball pretty effectively as well. New DC Terrell Williams brings a ton of juice from his time under Aaron Glenn in Detroit. Massive free agent acquisitions like Milton Williams at DT, Carlton Davis at corner, Harold Landry at OLB and Robert Spillane at ILB improve this defense at every level. The pass rush will be improved from inside and out, the run defense will be better inside the box, and the secondary will get contributions from players not named Christian Gonzalez.

Hell, even the special teams already looks better with rookie kicker Andres Borregales booting kicks in the preseason and a kid like Henderson taking kickoffs to the house.

The pride of Hopwell, Va. (h/t Roto Street Journal)

Are you starting to understand why every time you open ESPN, pundits are predicting the Patriots in the playoffs? It’s not an unfounded take.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

Again, considering this was by far the worst offensive line in football last year and New England completely overhauled and improved it, they’re going to be a much better unit this season. This is more about their potential. I think these guys have the chance to be one of the top-15 or so offensive lines in the league. I love the new tackle duo, the interior is beefy and thoroughly effective against the run and I think Doug Marrone could be a really solid OL coach. So, if they reach that level, imagine what this offense is going to look like. Drake Maye with time to throw, TreVeyon Henderson with rushing lanes… it just seems beautiful, doesn’t it?

Team MVP: QB Drake Maye
Sophomore jump? (h/t PFF)

In that vein, I think an improved offensive line means a huge 2025 for Drake Maye. I absolutely loved this kid at North Carolina, he was a top-four prospect for me into the league, and I was incredibly impressed with his play last season. Again, it was nothing flashy, but his composure in a horrendous situation really spoke volumes. I was much more impressed with Maye than I was with Williams for that reason. With a full offseason under his belt, an actually competent coaching staff and shiny new weapons surrounding him, Maye could take the leap to being a top-12 or so QB in football this year. With a skillset that perfectly embodies the franchise quarterback in today’s game — from size to mobility to arm strength and the ability to make every play — he has everything he needs to get it done.

Breakout Candidate: RB TreVeyon Henderson

Ah, the pride of Hopewell, Va. I doubt any of you remember me writing about his first game at Ohio State when he burst onto the scene with a massive touchdown against Minnesota way back in 2021. But I do! And ever since then, Tre has been my guy. He’s one of my favorite Buckeyes ever and I can’t wait to see him shine in the pros. I touched on it earlier, but he brings a blend of size, strength, burst and speed that could make him one of the league’s most deadly weapons in 2025. He’s going to catch a ton of passes and he’s going to turn a lot of short gains into massive ones, the same way he did in Columbus for four years. I wanted him in Washington for that reason, but I’ll gladly watch him tear it up for a Patriots team that I’m really excited to watch blossom into a contender in the years to come.

Record Prediction: 8-9

On that note, I don’t think this is a playoff team overnight. I still think they’re going to be vastly improved and a very solid team, but the Patriots are one year away to me, mainly because we need to see all these new pieces gel before placing any real expectations on them. What if the new-look offensive line disappoints? What if the defense still can’t stop a nosebleed? What if Maye takes a step back, not forward? I don’t think any of that will happen, but in a division with the Bills and with teams on the schedule like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, the season could feature some more downs than ups.

But, make no mistake about it, the Patriots will be back in the national spotlight and competing with the Bills for the AFC East for years to come. They’re doing everything right, and we’re going to start to see these moves bear fruit this season. We could be talking about a real Super Bowl contender in the years to come.

Next up: Atlanta Falcons

32 Teams in 32 Days: Green Bay Packers

The Packers have made major headlines this offseason and look primed to return to championship contention behind a boisterous defense and a healthy Jordan Love.

Cover photo taken from Bleacher Report.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’ve entered the homestretch, closing out the NFC North with the Packers, who have made major headlines this offseason and look primed to return to championship contention behind a boisterous defense and a healthy Jordan Love.

Until a few days ago, it felt like we knew everything there was to know about this Green Bay team. Last year was better than it felt, Love was really never himself after getting injured in the opener, the season ended with a whimper and they didn’t do a whole lot in the offseason.

That all changed rather quickly. In a process that escalated exponentially, the Packers acquired star linebacker Micah Parsons from the Cowboys, sending two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark to Dallas before giving their new pass-rusher a record-breaking four-year, $188 million extension. It’s a move that completely changes the landscape of the NFC, making an already (seemingly) good defense one to be feared, and makes the Packers a clear-cut heavyweight in a top-heavy conference.

Green Bay has their new Reggie White. (h/t D Magazine)

It’s also a move that Green Bay pretty much had to make. This defense was very Jekyll and Hyde last year — they were 4th in EPA/play but 21st in success rate, 28th in dropback success rate and 26th in pass rush win rate. They could stop the run effectively, but that was about it. Their numbers looked way better than the tape and analytics would suggest, and it eventually led to their unraveling down the stretch against teams like Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia.

To that end, I wish they did something to upgrade the secondary this summer. Moving on from Jaire Alexander felt inevitable, but I don’t know that they have an adequate replacement. Keisean Nixon and Nate Hobbs don’t exactly form the scariest corner duo in the league, even if Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard are a very solid safety tandem. If anything, this defense is opportunistic, having finished third in turnovers in 2024. I just need them to be more consistent on the backend, because the pass rush is going to be leagues better than it was previously. With Rashan Gary, Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker still holding things down, they certainly don’t lack for talent in the front seven.

A lot of people have also clamored about this offense and particularly about Jordan Love, but I’m honestly not concerned. Do I think they’d be much more feared with a true WR1? Absolutely. But, we’ve seen them make it work with their committee of WR2s, especially when Love is healthy and in a groove like late in 2023. We mustn’t forget that this guy hurt his knee in the very first game of the season last year. He was clearly never the same when he got back. His health will be a major point to watch, but as long as he’s at or close to 100%, I expect to see the Jordan Love of December and January 2023.

Besides, Love was fine last year anyways. He was 10th in EPA+CPOE, 15th in success rate and 5th in QBR. If that’s a down year, then this Packers offense should be just fine. The offensive line was 7th in pass block win rate, they resigned Zach Tom at tackle, and they’re getting the most out of RB Josh Jacobs despite subpar run blocking. If one of those WRs can take a leap — more on that later — then they could be feared.

X-Factor: The Secondary

I touched on it earlier, but this secondary needs to be better if the Packers want to reach their championship potential this year. Which means second-year DC Jeff Hafley will need to draw blood from a stone. This unit didn’t get better on paper over the offseason — if anything, this team is just hoping that their young guys step up and turn into key pieces. That doesn’t feel like an effective strategy. Neither does trying to convert WR Bo Melton into a corner. I just have this nagging feeling that the defensive backfield is what’s going to drag this Green Bay team down in the postseason. Even if Love plays like we know he can, even if the receivers show up, even if Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and the pass rush improves exponentially. I just need to see these DBs play up to par before believing that they can.

Team MVP: QB Jordan Love
Let’s see a return to form. (h/t Bleacher Report)

What Jordan Love will we see in 2025? I choose to believe it’ll be the best version of him. I hope that doesn’t come back to bite me. If you’ve been reading my stuff through the years, you know I’m pretty fond of this guy, even dating back to the Utah State days. Seeing it all come to fruition in 2023 was everything I had hoped it would be. Last year… not so much. But, again, I almost want to throw it in the bin because of the knee injury he sustained in Week 1 in Brazil. It’s hard to come back from that so quickly and still be effective. Love has the offensive line and run game to allow him to thrive, so I’m hoping that good health allows him to remain on the field and be the quarterback we know he can be.

Breakout Candidate: WR Matthew Golden

If Love is going to have the season I expect, this kid is going to play a big role in it. Ever since trading Davante Adams, the Packers have lacked a WR1. You kind of need one to win a Super Bowl. Now, they hope that Golden can be that guy. The speedster from Texas wasn’t Green Bay’s first WR taken in the first round since 2002 for no reason. With a 4.29 40 and an innate playmaking ability, he was my favorite receiver in the 2025 class — though the bar there is admittedly a little low.

That being said, I wasn’t sure that he could go somewhere and immediately be a WR1; I initially loved the idea of him going to Dallas, because being a two alongside CeeDee Lamb felt like a killer combo. It would be neat to see him shut me up. I don’t know that he has the route tree or technical skillset to develop into the Davante Adams type, but few players do. All he needs to do is prove himself as a go-to target for Love and solidify his spot as the X in this offense. Is that a high bar for a rookie? Maybe. But I think he can do it. It’s what he was drafted for, after all.

Record Prediction: 12-5

Even before the Parsons trade, I had the Packers winning the NFC North. Now, I feel a lot more confident in that pick. This pass rush is going to be so much better, even if the run defense takes a hit (Rashan Gary is arguably the best run-stopping LB in the league, anyways). The offense is going to get a boost from Golden and a healthy Love while Josh Jacobs does his usual thing. The secondary is the only thing that concerns me, but we’ll see how that plays out.

The schedule is undoubtedly tough with the NFC East and AFC North on tap, but Lambeau is obviously an anchor of success, and I think this squad can go win games at Dallas and Pittsburgh. And I sure as heck don’t want to play them in the playoffs, despite their recent track record.

The Super Bowl window is wide open in Green Bay. Let’s see if they finally, finally make that jump.

Next up: New England Patriots

32 Teams in 32 Days: Chicago Bears

The Bears are once again riding a slew of offseason hype — despite having the single biggest disaster of a 2024 season imaginable — thanks to a shiny new head coach and some offensive firepower.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re back in the NFC North with its most polarizing team as the Bears are once again riding a slew of offseason hype despite having the single biggest disaster of a 2024 season imaginable thanks to a shiny new head coach and some offensive firepower.

I couldn’t tell you why. Chicago was horrendous last year. After being billed as the greatest QB prospect of the century who was entering the greatest situation a No. 1 pick has ever been in, Caleb Williams was abysmal. They lost 10 games in a row — the worst mark in franchise history — after losing on a Hail Mary debacle in Washington. They fired their head coach and offensive coordinator in the middle of the season and finished the year with their passing game coordinator as their HC. They had four games where they didn’t score an offensive touchdown.

Don’t mind me, just putting this here. (h/t NBC News)

And yet, here we are. Another preseason of the media insisting that this is the year for Chicago because of X, Y and Z. Sure thing, y’all. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I suppose it’s not for no reason. The big move was hiring Lions OC Ben Johnson to be the new head coach, bringing his supposed offensive genius to Chicago and mold Caleb into the quarterback most people think he can be. I am personally completely out on Johnson for a number of reasons, including his strange falling out with the Commanders’ brass last offseason and his seemingly gigantic ego. This is the guy who was calling trick plays down double digits in a home playoff game, trusting a WR to make a big throw for some reason. This screams Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas to me. I do think Johnson is a good offensive mind, but I also know that he thinks very highly of himself. So I just don’t see it.

Combine that with Caleb, and I think this could go very poorly very quickly. We know the talent that the former Heisman winner has; he was the easy pick at No. 1 and obviously has one of the wildest athletic profiles we’ve ever seen from a college quarterback. But this guy was 27th in EPA+CPOE, 30th in success rate, 28th in QBR and took a league-leading 68 sacks a year ago. Everyone will blame the coaching or playcalling or offensive line or anything else under the sun. But, this offensive line was 15th in pass block win rate. And all I heard last summer was that former OC Shane Waldron was a great playcaller. And Hard Knocks told me to expect massive things out of Williams and the offense. Well, that offense finished 26th in EPA/play, 30th in success rate and 28th in scoring. So don’t give me that revisionist history.

This was an all-too familiar sight in 2024. (h/t AP Photo)

The reality is that Williams was clearly overwhelmed by the speed of the pros, often hanging onto the ball forever and running around in the backfield like he was still playing San Jose State. He was consistently inconsistent, following up great throws with zip and accuracy with floaters that’d land in the stands. The 68-sack number has more to do with his lack of a feel for the pocket and less to do with that offensive line, although I do recognize that it wasn’t ideal. But, neither was a guy like Drake Maye’s, and I felt better about his feel for it than Caleb’s.

Johnson took this job because of Williams. If these two can’t make it work together, I don’t know who the fans and media are going to blame. Because all I hear right now is how nothing is Caleb’s fault.

The good news is that Johnson is clearly going to implement the things that made his Lions offenses so effective. The Bears beefed up the interior by making moves for Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson to create one of the better guard-center-guard combos in the league. I do still worry about the tackles, which isn’t great news for Caleb, but that interior is legit — they also drafted Ozzy Trapilo in the second round for some depth at RT. They added to an already solid corps of pass-catchers by drafting TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III with their first two picks, with Johnson looking to turn the former into another Sam LaPorta. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are already solid, so this offense won’t be lacking for weapons. But, that was the case last year, too.

In any case, this defense will still be a strongsuit. They have talent everywhere and finished 13th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate last year. The real strength is the secondary, considering they were 10th in dropback EPA vs. 26th in rush EPA in 2024. And I don’t think they did enough to get better against the run this offseason, though signing Grady Jarrett and drafting Shemar Turner out of Texas A&M should help. The defensive line as a whole simply needs to be better — this unit was 24th in pass rush win rate and 29th in run stop win rate. The secondary will do their job thanks to guys like Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker, but the front seven needs to button up if they want to lend the offense a hand. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen should be able to do just that.

X-Factor: QB Caleb Williams
If not now, when? (h/t PFF)

It’s weird to say this for a No. 1 pick in year two, but this feels like a make-or-break year for Caleb. The pressure and expectations on him feel pretty tremendous. I feel bad, because I don’t think they should! He’s just in year two and he clearly has a ton of work to do. But I truly think that if this year looks like last year, this team might make a move off him. Like I said earlier, you can’t blame the coaching staff or offensive line anymore, right? This is now a second straight year of everyone saying that the situation around Caleb is a great one. So if he’s bad again, it’s solely on him.

We know he has the talent, but I really worry about the character. Laying on the ground or bench after sacks, bad body language after picks and incompletions, the weird media fiasco this summer where it seemed like he tried to avoid being drafted by Chicago and so much more. From the neck down, he has everything it takes to be a franchise QB. But from the neck up, I’m just not sure.

If he takes to coaching and learns how to be a pocket passer, use his mobility more effectively, find his accuracy and timing and rhythm and just show some more maturity, then the Bears are in business. But at this point, it feels like a big ask.

Team MVP: N/A

I don’t know. I just don’t know. I wanted to give it to the secondary or the defense at large, but they had their weak points last year and they don’t feel better this year, though I expect improvements under Dennis Allen. I wanted to give it to an individual DB like Jaylon Johnson, but it just didn’t feel right. Someone’s gotta prove to me that they deserve this spot.

Breakout Candidate: TE Colston Loveland

As I said earlier, Loveland was drafted No. 10 overall for a reason. The tight ends are a big part of Ben Johnson’s offenses, and Loveland has been brought to Chicago to fill that role, despite the Bears already having a solid option in Cole Kmet. He was a monster at Michigan thanks to his over-the-top athleticism for a guy with a 6-foot-6, 241-pound frame. He can go up and grab any ball and has some pretty underrated quickness after the catch. I expect him to make an immediate impact as not just a security blanket for Caleb, but a focal point of the passing game — again, very similar to LaPorta in Detroit. I’m not saying he’s going to be Brock Bowers from last year, but he’ll put up some pretty good numbers.

Record Prediction: 4-13

By the overwhelmingly negative tone of this preview, you could probably tell that I don’t have high hopes for the Bears. I don’t like Ben Johnson, I don’t like what I’ve seen from Caleb Williams, and I don’t understand why so many people are falling for this again. Their schedule is ridiculously hard: their division was already a gauntlet littered with elite defenses before Micah Parsons entered the equation, and they have to play the NFC East, AFC North and the 49ers. Seems like a step up from the AFC South and NFC West last season. I don’t know how this gameplan will play out for GM Ryan Poles, but I just think this season is going to be a turbulent one. And there will be some uncomfortable questions to answer come January.

Next up: Green Bay Packers

32 Teams in 32 Days: Las Vegas Raiders

The remade Raiders, who have seemingly overhauled the franchise, are looking to go from the bottom of the barrel to a position of respect after a rough few years.

Cover photo taken from PFSN.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We round out the AFC West with the remade Raiders, who have seemingly overhauled the franchise and are looking to go from the bottom of the barrel to a position of respect after a rough few years.

And I mean rough. Vegas hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2021, and their offense has been pretty difficult to watch as of late. Last season, they were 31st in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, 28th in dropback EPA, 32nd in rush EPA and 32nd in rush success rate. Since moving on from Derek Carr, juggling between Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell and others hasn’t yielded the most positive results. Shocker, I know.

As such, new general manager John Spytek decided to turn their offense completely upside down. And I loved every move he made.

It started with bringing legendary head coach Pete Carroll out of retirement and trading a third-round pick for QB Geno Smith, then signing him to a two-year, $75 million extension to provide some solid stability under center. I’m a bigger Geno fan than most, but there’s zero denying that he’s a major upgrade for Vegas considering Minshew was 29th in EPA+CPOE and 21st in success rate while Smith was 15th and 16th, respectively. And Carroll will provide some much-needed wisdom and stability at head coach, which the Raiders are desperate for after dealing with the likes of Antonio Pierce and Josh McDaniels.

Then came the draft, where the Raiders knocked it out of the park. The worst rushing offense in the league by a comfortable margin got the biggest boost possible with the selection of generational prospect Ashton Jeanty in the first round. The Heisman runner-up (still think he should’ve won it) who just had 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns at Boise State is arguably the best back to come out of college since Saquon Barkley and will be an instant impact player in a backfield that desperately needed him. Between his size, burst, quickness, toughness and speed, I expect him to have a massive rookie season and immediately be a top-10 RB in the league.

The Silver Surfer. (h/t PFSN)

Vegas also needed some pass-catchers on the outside to complement last year’s first-round TE Brock Bowers, who had a ridiculous rookie season with 112 catches, 1,194 and five touchdowns. Enter two fresh new WRs: TCU’s Jack Bech in the second and Tennessee’s Dont’e Thonrton in the fourth. The former a classic inside-outside receiver with sticky hands and reliable toughness, the latter a 6-foot-5 blur to take the top off of defenses. With Geno under center, Jeanty in the backfield and this set of receivers across the board, this offense should be vastly improved in 2025.

I do still worry about the defense, though. Could it be better? Sure. Will it be good? I don’t know. Maxx Crosby is one of the league’s premier edge rushers — more on that later — Adam Butler is a solid presence in the middle of the line, Jeremy Chinn was a nice addition at safety and I think Darien Porter could be a stud at corner. But that’s about it. I just don’t know if this unit improved enough from last year to be any better. That’s not a bad thing — they were 16th in EPA/play and 11th in success rate. Just an observation.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

The Raiders didn’t take Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick for no reason. They’re not necessarily going to be a run-first team, but they sure as hell will need to run the ball effectively to be the offense they want to be. I think Jeanty can make it work in any circumstance, but this offensive line improving from a year ago would go a long way. They were just 22nd in the league in run block win rate in 2024 and didn’t do a lot to bolster that unit. If they do improve in that department, it’ll go a hell of a long way. And even if they get better at pass blocking — they were 17th in that department last year — it’ll definitely help Geno, who had to deal with Seattle’s inept OL in the past several years. Simply put, if this line does its job, this could really be one of the 10-12 best offenses in the league.

Team MVP: EDGE Maxx Crosby
Dog. (h/t Sports Illustrated)

As I said earlier, Crosby is simply one of the best in the biz. An ankle injury derailed his 2024, but he was still 9th in pass rush win rate among edges and racked up 7.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. In the previous two seasons, he racked up 27 sacks and a league-leading 45 TFLs. He’s simply a machine. And the Raiders paid him as such, rewarding him with a three-year, $106.5 million extension. When healthy, there’s no denying how dominant he is. Let’s hope he stays on the field in 2025.

Breakout Candidate: WR Dont’e Thornton Jr.

If you’ve been paying any attention to the Raiders in the preseason and training camp, you’ve probably heard Thornton’s name. And for good reason. He’s 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, runs a 4.3 40, can take the top off any defense and can Moss any corner you throw his way. His physical attributes have never been a question; he was one of the top WRs in his recruiting class, after all. But the production was just never there to match it in college. But those traits will translate to the NFL, especially with a guy like Geno throwing you the ball. Smith was the second-most accurate quarterbacks on throws of 20-plus yards in 2024, trailing only Joe Burrow. I have a feeling that Thornton will be his favorite downfield target, opening up the ability for massive plays in an offense that really needs them.

Record Prediction: 8-9

The Raiders are doing all the right things right now. But three things remain true. One, this is still the wild, wild AFC West. Two, it’s just year one of this rebuild. Three, the schedule is pretty tough. They’ve got to play the Eagles, Commanders, Texans and Patriots outside of their divisional gauntlet. They’re going to be much improved, but there’s still some work to do, particularly on defense. But I think Geno and Jeanty will be awesome, I think Bowers will have another great year, Thornton and Bech could flash some real potential, and Crosby will once again be a game-wrecker. They’ll be a very fun watch.

Next up: Chicago Bears

32 Teams in 32 Days: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.

Cover photo taken from PFF.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

We’re sticking in the AFC West, where the Broncos have quietly vanquished financial demons and assembled one of the best rosters in the NFL, putting them in a position to genuinely contend for a Super Bowl in 2025.

No, I’m not exaggerating. And I’ll tell you why.

The Broncos have done everything right since moving on from Russell Wilson. While it felt like that trade and contract were going to bury them from years, they’ve risen from the hypothetical ashes as a literal phoenix to do everything they need to do to win football games.

In this league, you can get the QB right, then let the rest fall into place. This, however, is the alternative: a three-step equation that precedes getting a quarterback right.

Step one: hire the right coach. Denver knocked it out of the park by bringing in Sean Payton last season, who clearly had plenty of juice left after “retiring” several years ago. He just knows how to win, and he knows how to work with the quarterbacks of his choosing.

Step two: build the trenches. My God, have the Broncos done that. They were one of two teams to finish in the top-10 of pass block (1st) and rush (2nd) win rate as well as run block (1st) and stop (8th) win rate. The other was the Super Bowl champion Eagles.

Step three: Build a championship defense. I’d like to think that this unit that ranked 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate, 1st in dropback EPA and 2nd in rush success rate fits the bill. That’s what happens when you have the defensive player of the year in Patrick Surtain II — who has clearly emerged as the league’s best DB. But it’s more than that. Edge rusher Zach Allen had the third-best pass rush win rate in the league last year while DT DJ Jones was second in the NFL among tackles in run stop win rate. Nik Bonitto has blossomed into one of the league’s brightest young talents at linebacker. Now, he has Dre Greenlaw alongside him with Talanoa Hufanga patrolling the defensive backfield and first-round pick Jahdae Barron locking down the opposite boundary of Surtain. I mean, good lord.

So, all of that elite roster-building by GM George Paton allowed them to tie it all together with the franchise QB of their choosing. And at first, I wasn’t sure about the choice. But Bo Nix has proven his worth after being picked 12th overall a year ago. That being said… I don’t think he’s that good yet.

Nix definitely finished the year way stronger than he started it, which goes a long way. In September, he clearly still had the training wheels on — a little odd for a five-year college starter — and the speed of the pros seemed to rattle him. But, by December, he was vastly improved, finishing the year with 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

What’s his ceiling? (h/t PFF)

I usually hesitate to call guys “system quarterbacks,” but it just felt like Nix was a small cog in a larger system than the one that drove the bus. He was just 19th in EPA+CPOE and 22nd in success rate while the offense ranked 16th in EPA/play. That’s a whole lotta mid. I don’t know if he has what it takes to elevate the guys around him, and I worry that what we saw last year was his ceiling as a pro; after all, he was only taken where he was because the Broncos had no other choice.

Here’s the good news: in the case that I’m right, Denver is still going to be fine. Nix and Payton have a perfect marriage and I think he’s good enough within the confines of this system (especially with that offensive line) to put them in a position to contend in the AFC. Him not being an elite quarterback is fine. Teams like the Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers prove that you don’t need crazy good QB play when the rest of the roster is as ridiculously talented as it is.

X-Factor: The Pass-Catchers

It would certainly help Bo Nix if this wide receiver and tight end corps develops into a better one. Yes, Courtland Sutton has been a great player for a long time and got a well-deserved extension this offseason. But after that, there’s some potential left to be reached considering no other player had more than 503 receiving yards — less than half of Sutton’s total — last year. I think guys like Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin could turn into truly elite deep threats in the slot, and this year’s third-rounder Pat Bryant has the frame and skillset to turn into a really nice complement to Sutton. Plus, Evan Engram could turn into a reliable security blanket at tight end considering how many targets he saw in Jacksonville. All of that would go a long way in helping Nix and elevating this offense to be better than the frankly mediocre one they were a year ago.

Team MVP: The Offensive Line
Best starting five in the league. (h/t Getty Images)

I could’ve gone a number of ways here. I really wanted to give it to Patrick Surtain, but sometimes, you gotta show love to the hog mollies.

The incredibly high level of play that this OL had a year ago is astounding. By the numbers, this might’ve been the best offensive line I’ve ever seen and was one of the biggest reasons why Bo Nix was such a success in his rookie season. Garrett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz and Mike McGlinchey are by far the best starting five in the league. I already mentioned how this OL was first in both pass block and run block win rate in 2024, so I’m just going to leave these here for you to look at:

Garrett Bolles: 7th in PBWR among OT, ranked 5th in pass blocking grade among OT by PFF

Ben Powers: 5th in PBWR among IOL, 1st in RBWR among IOL

Luke Wattenberg: 2nd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 2nd in pass blocking grade among centers by PFF

Quinn Meinerz: 3rd in PBWR among IOL, ranked 3rd-highest overall guard by PFF (6th in pass blocking, 3rd in run blocking), voted First Team All-Pro

Mike McGlinchey: 6th in PBWR among OT

I rest my case.

Breakout Candidate: RB R.J. Harvey

I held off talking about Harvey for this long, so let’s get into it. A solid and consistent run game is what was missing from this offense last year. Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime were a mediocre committee at best, hence why Williams and Estime are now gone. JK Dobbins was brought in to be a steady vet in the backfield, but the real guy to watch is the second-round pick from UCF.

Harvey was an absolute stud in college with nearly 3,000 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground in his final two seasons. Those are ridiculous numbers. He might be smaller in size, but he’s got the burst and quickness to make up for it. More than anything, I have a feeling that he’s going to emerge as a security blanket for Nix in the passing game, turning into a Bucky Irving of sorts by catching a ton of checkdowns and making his money after the catch. In any case, I think he’ll be the starting tailback in no time sheerly by having the highest upside of anyone in that backfield.

Record Prediction: 11-6

I have pretty high hopes for this team. I think they should be a playoff team fairly easily despite the rest of this division being a gauntlet and tough games against Washington, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Houston and Green Bay. The offensive infrastructure and defensive dominance will be enough to get to double digit wins and a Wild Card spot. I just think the lack of elite QB play will prevent them from winning the division. Plus, as I’ve been saying with these AFC West teams, I won’t believe that the Chiefs can be dethroned until I see it. But I’m a massive fan of this roster, and I’m excited to see if they can build off last year’s success and be better this fall.

Next up: Las Vegas Raiders

32 Teams in 32 Days: Los Angeles Chargers

Even with a very talented roster, the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.

Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.

Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.

Our second dip into the AFC West brings us out to Los Angeles, where the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.

I want to believe in this franchise. Truly, I do. Jim Harbaugh is an elite head coach. You guys know how much I love Justin Herbert. By all means, this is one of the best HC-QB duos in the league. And the rest of the roster is pretty good to boot. I just don’t know that it’ll ever gel and result in truly contending in a stacked AFC, particularly with the rest of the West vastly improving.

Last year could’ve been the year. They were well-balanced and kept the ball out of harm’s way, finishing 4th in turnover differential. The offense was 12th in EPA/play while the defense was 5th and led the league in scoring. Herbert was good, but not great, finishing 13th in EPA+CPOE and failing to reach 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career (in a full season). And while he finished with just three interceptions in the regular season, we all know how the playoffs went: a four-interception disasterclass in Houston leading to another playoff exit, leaving Herbert searching for that first postseason victory.

Disasterclass. (h/t Texans Wire)

So, regardless of how this regular season goes, the real key for this Chargers team is postseason play. The good news is that I fully expect them to get there. This roster is largely the same from a year ago with some big improvements in key areas, but there are a couple of places that I think could drag this squad down.

The first is the offensive line. Losing star LT Rashawn Slater for the season thanks to a freak injury in camp is simply brutal. It’s going to drastically effect Herbert’s protection and definitively hurt the OL’s run blocking. Last year’s first-round pick Joe Alt will slide to the left, which will be fine considering he played there in college and finished last year 4th among all tackles in pass block win rate. But, that leaves RT as a question mark, though Trey Pipkins is a capable player. I do like bringing in Mekhi Becton at guard, but the number of snaps he can play there is limited.

The second is the secondary, which wasn’t awful last year but doesn’t feel much better this year. Yes, there are decent pieces like Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart and Alohi Gilman, and Derwin James is a superstar at safety. But these corners feel very susceptible to me, and they didn’t make any moves in free agency to make me feel better about that. In fact, they made it worse by signing Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson.

The front seven should be fine despite losing Poona Ford, but they also lack the proverbial oomph needed to make me feel confident. But, DC Jesse Minter has proven himself to make it work regardless of the circumstance, and I don’t see why he can’t coach this unit to punch above its weight and finish as one of the best in the league again.

The good news is on offense. The RB room is getting a massive lift with the addition of first-round pick Omarion Hampton from North Carolina, who this coaching staff keeps raving about. He’s a bruiser who’s hard to bring down but has plenty of speed to his game, which could give the Chargers the spark they didn’t have out of the backfield a year ago. They also added Najee Harris in free agency, which was a move I didn’t really like in the moment and like a lot less now that he’s dealing with eye problems after a firework incident on Independence Day.

And I truly think this might be the best set of receivers that Herbert has ever had. Ladd McConkey is a bonafide stud at WR, coming off a massive rookie season with 82 catches, 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. Tre Harris is a second-round pick with a ton of upside that’ll see the field right away. Even fifth-rounder KeAndre Lambert-Smith is turning heads in the preseason. If Quentin Johnston can build off a much-improved 2024 — big ask, I know — then this could be a better passing offense than we realize.

X-Factor: The Offensive Line

Without Slater, this offensive line will have to collectively pick up the slack to keep Herbert upright and get this run game going. I outlined why I think that can happen, but in the event that it doesn’t, this offense could fall apart in a jiffy. I think Herbert can still be an effective quarterback and facilitator the way Harbaugh wants him to be even if the line play isn’t as good, but that’s a problem no QB ever wants to have. And if Hampton and the RBs can’t get it going, it’ll only bring the offense down more. This defense is good, but it’s not built to overcome that many problems. They’re meant to complement the death-by-a-thousand-papercuts offense.

Team MVP: QB Justin Herbert
He’s still really good. I promise. (h/t Athlon Sports)

For the millionth year in a row, it feels like Herbert is the most overhated quarterback in the league. Look, I know neither of his playoff games have gone very well. I think one of those is entirely his fault while the other one isn’t really. In any case, I know what my eyes tell me: Justin Herbert is a cyborg. This dude was built in a lab to play quarterback. At 6-foot-6, 236 pounds with an arm that can make any throw and honestly underrated mobility, he makes plays every week that make me sit up in my chair, even with Harbaugh and company dialing him back a little bit. He has the skillset and the tape that can go band for band with any other QB in football. For my money, he’s still the 6th best quarterback in the league. But, playoff performance is imperative. I need to see him finally show up and play a complete game in the postseason and just win. So many playoff wins and losses are decided by the quarterback, and right now, his playoff reputation is one of being a loser. Until that narrative is dispelled, he’s not going to get the national respect I think he deserves.

Breakout Candidate: RB Omarion Hampton

Jim Harbaugh has made his money with elite running back play. Toby Gerhart, Frank Gore, Karan Higdon, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards. Now, he gets Omarian Hampton to mess around with. He may lack the quickness of some of the better backs in the league, but once he gets going downhill, he’s hard to stop. I do have concerns about whether that deficiency of burst will hold him back from being a great back at the next level, but if he can find it, there’s no stopping this kid. He was the second RB off the board for a reason. You don’t want to be seeing him in the open field.

Record Prediction: 12-5

If I was redoing my record predictions today (full disclosure, I completed it before I started this series, which may have been a mistake considering how much things change in the preseason), I’d probably have this team closer to 10 or 11 wins. But, I’ll keep them at 12 for now because of how much I trust this head coach and quarterback. If the defense can keep up the level of play that they had last year and the offense gets that little bit of juice out of the newcomers, this should be a very similar, if not better season in LA. But, like I said, the real test will come in the postseason. They’ll likely have to go on the road in Wild Card weekend, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess.

Next up: Denver Broncos