Week 5 Picks

Cover photo taken from NFL.

Last Week: 11-4-1

Season Total: 40-23-1

Rams 24-10 49ers

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

The 49ers are decimated by injuries and the Rams are humming. This is a simple calculus.

If San Francisco finds a way to win this game on the road without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, I’ll just throw my hands up and concede defeat.

Vikings 13-10 Browns

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

First to 10 points wins.

With the way these two defenses are playing, the submarined total of 35.5 makes total sense. I guess I’ll take the “trusty” vet in Carson Wentz over the rookie making his first start in Dillon Gabriel. Plus, the Vikings have been overseas for two weeks now, which should be an advantage.

Either way, we owe the UK an apology for sending this game their way.

Colts 27-17 Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Considering the trajectory of these two squads, this game shouldn’t be close. But, because I’m picking the Colts in survivor, it’ll find a way to be.

Regardless, I won’t predict that to be the case. The Raiders are a mess right now and this is a great spot for Indy to bounce back after last week’s tough loss on the west coast.

Saints 22-19 Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Saints aren’t going 0-17. They’ve got to find a win somewhere.

Before the season started, I said this would be one of only two wins for them, so I’ll stick to my guns.

Cowboys 27-24 Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

For some reason that I can’t quite pinpoint, I really wanted to pick the Jets to win this game. Like the Saints, they’ve got to find a win somewhere, right? Why shouldn’t it come against the worst defense in the NFL?

Well, I just don’t trust New York’s offense right now. The Cowboys have essentially proven that they can win any shootout with the way their offense is playing, so at least I can trust them in that regard.

Eagles 20-16 Broncos

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

As I’ve repeated, I’m going to continue to pick the Eagles until they lose, because they will always find a way to win.

Plus, Bo Nix doesn’t really move me, even against a susceptible Philly defense. Denver’s defense should keep them in this one, but I don’t know if the Broncos offense can make the plays necessary to put them over the top.

Panthers 26-21 Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Do I have to pick a winner here? Fine, I guess.

Give me the Panthers for no reason other than vibes. I can see Bryce Young putting together his bi-monthly solid game, and I can particularly see Tetairoa McMillan finally having his breakout game for Carolina. Don’t get me wrong, I also see the potentially more likely outcome of the Dolphins shredding Carolina’s dreadful defense, but I’ll choose the glass-half-full option with the home team.

Texans 24-16 Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

So, the Ravens are screwed. Here’s a list of players that could miss this game for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, Kyle Hamilton, Nate Wiggins, Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey (this one might be a good thing) and Chidobe Awuzie. That’s insane. It’s never a good sign when your injury report mirrors a Costco receipt.

Hence, I’ll take the Texans, since there’s no way this shorthanded Baltimore squad can beat that defense without Lamar. And while Houston’s offense isn’t anything amazing, you and I can move the ball against the Ravens defense at full strength. Now that they’re missing all their best players, it’ll be brutal.

Cardinals 25-12 Titans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Every passing week with the Titans, we should be telling ourselves, “This should be Brian Callahan’s last game as head coach.”

We’ll see if that actually comes to fruition on Sunday.

Seahawks 24-20 Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Ah, yes. The throwback uniform matchup of the century. The former Panthers outcast quarterback bowl. The “Ohio State is WRU” battle of the year. So on and so forth.

This game should be a banger, but I get the feeling that it won’t be. And that’s largely due to the injuries that Tampa Bay continues to deal with. Baker Mayfield has missed some practice time and Bucky Irving might miss his first game of the year all while the offensive line continues being a patchwork one and the WR corps remains on the mend.

Meanwhile, Seattle is on a completely upward trajectory. Considering their home field advantage, the way their defense is dominating games and how brilliant Sam Darnold and JSN have been, the Seahawks are an easy pick for me here.

Commanders 30-27 Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This one’s going to come back to bite me, but so be it. This is the difference that Jayden Daniels makes.

No, Terry McLaurin nor Noah Brown are playing in this game. No, our defense can’t stop a traffic cone. But No. 5 is the great eraser. And he’s back.

It’s not just that, though. The Chargers being without Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt with an already abysmal interior offensive line gives me confidence that our defensive line can get some movement up front, both limiting Omarion Hampton and making Justin Herbert uncomfortable. That will need to happen, because I have little to no faith in our secondary against Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. And while I like LA’s defense, they haven’t faced a Daniels-like quarterback just yet.

This game is going to be played on ice skates. And I trust Jayden to get the job done in his homecoming to SoCal.

Lions 38-10 Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This is going to be a bloodbath so vicious that it should be censored on television.

Bills 23-14 Patriots

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

This is quite the measuring stick game for the Patriots, and undoubtedly the biggest game of Drake Maye’s young career. With the eyes of the nation looking at New England, it’s a real chance to make a statement.

But, it’s not going to happen. The Bills don’t lose at home, and they don’t lose to the Patriots anymore. Plus, how can Buffalo falter in those icy white uniforms?

Chiefs 23-20 Jaguars

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Like the Patriots, this is a heck of a measuring stick game for the Jaguars. They’ve started hot, but they also haven’t really played anyone crazy quite yet. This will be a great test for them at home.

With the way Jacksonville’s defense is playing, it’s admittedly hard to pick against them. But the Chiefs feel like they’re back, and I think they have what it takes to beat that strong Jags D now that Xavier Worthy is back. But, if Liam Coen’s fiesty bunch finds a way to pull this out, don’t color me surprised.