Cover photo taken from NBC4.
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 29-19
Seahawks 23-20 Cardinals 
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
The Cardinals might be the better-dressed team in this game, but the Seahawks are the better football team.
The way Seattle is humming on both sides of the ball gives me plenty of faith that they’ll get this done on the road. I just feel more comfortable with them than Arizona, whose identity-less offense might be in for a long night against a defense that’s punching above its weight and only getting healthier.
Vikings 16-13 Steelers 
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Ah yes, I love waking up to Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz hoops in Dublin, Ireland. Nothing like it!
Simply put, in an international game where anything goes, I’ll take the team with the defense that I trust. That’s Minnesota; low bar against the Steelers unit, but Brian Flores is coaching his tail off right now, and Wentz will make it work on the other side of the ball. I don’t really like what Pittsburgh has on across the board.
Falcons 20-17 Commanders 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is subject to change, but I’m writing this with the assumption that neither Jayden Daniels nor Terry McLaurin will play in this game for the Commanders. Even with the polar opposite performances these squads had a week ago, that’s a pretty big deal for Washington.
Marcus Mariota is obviously a tremendous backup, but playing without your top two WRs, your best blocking tight end and your starting right guard against a very talented defense is not a recipe for success. Yes, we have some guys on offense that can step up and make plays, and they’ll have to for us to pull this out. And yes, our defense is hooping. But this really feels like a spot where the Falcons get right after last week’s debacle in a lower-scoring affair.
Bills 31-13 Saints 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Next!
Lions 24-10 Browns 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Let’s hope this week’s survivor pick (Detroit) winds up being less stressful than last week’s (Tampa Bay).
The Browns defense is awesome, but the Lions are on a crazy roll right now. No one should want to be in their way.
Patriots 26-20 Panthers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Realistically, the Patriots should win this game comfortably. They’ve been more consistent, they have better QB play and they should be getting Christian Gonzalez back on defense. But, New England hasn’t been able to stay out of its own way this season, which will always leave the door open for any team to beat them.
Luckily for the Pats, I don’t think the Panthers pose too much of a threat. Last week was more of an aberration than anything else, and the score doesn’t totally reflect the way things went for their offense. Maybe this will be the game Bryce Young looks legit. But I doubt it.
Chargers 23-13 Giants 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is a suboptimal spot for Jaxson Dart to make his NFL debut under center for the Giants. Not only are the Chargers a damn good team, but New York might be without Malik Nabers after he got rocked on SNF.
I don’t think this is the time that Brian Daboll wanted to trot out his first-round QB, but they didn’t have a choice. Unfortunately, I don’t think Dart has what it takes to do this in his first game. The Chargers defense likely sees food right now.
Eagles 27-24 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The universe couldn’t have chosen a funnier time for these teams to face off. Each of them has gotten to 3-0 by the skin of their teeth and we have questions about both, but it sets up for a hell of a contest on Sunday.
More than anything, I’m expecting points in this game. These offenses are crazy good even with Tampa Bay dealing with injury upon injury on that side of the ball. I actually trust the Bucs defense more than the Eagles’ at this point, but we know what Philly’s is capable of at any given moment.
In any case, I’m going to continue to pick the Eagles until they lose because they’re simply going to keep on pulling these out for as long as they can. That’s the story of this team through the first three weeks, and while I can’t wait for it to end, I’m going to ride the coattails for as long as they’re there.
Texans 23-17 Titans 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Someone’s gotta win. Something’s gotta give.
If the Titans won this game, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised. The Texans offense is so dreadful that anyone can beat them simply by putting enough points on the board. But, that Houston defense is still legit, and I think that’s going to make things even more difficult on Cam Ward and this Tennessee offense. They’ll put up a fight, but I don’t know that they have what it takes to get it done in the end.
Rams 23-20 Colts 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
A month ago, I did not expect this game to be appointment television, but here are. Dare I say: it’s the best game of the late window! Because at least both of these teams are playing at a high level and not relying on their brands and reputations for respect.
More than anything, I’m interested to see if the Rams are capable of doing something that nobody has through three weeks: slow down Daniel Jones and the Colts offense. If we see the LA defense that showed up for two quarters and change in Philadelphia last week, then they should be able to contain Jones, Jonathan Taylor and company. If not, this could turn into a shootout very quickly, because the Rams secondary could be susceptible to a big play or two from this incandescent Indianapolis offense.
I think it’ll be a blend of both. Each offense will get their game off, each defense will make a play or two. It boils down to me simply trusting the Rams a little more in this situation. I feel like we’re all waiting for the Colts to return to Earth. Maybe that won’t happen at all, but this does feel like the spot where they get their first loss.
49ers 19-16 Jaguars 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
It’s so hard to get a read on this game with the state of the 49ers roster. Injuries everywhere have us doubting whether they could be without their starting QB and top three WRs. That’s just insane.
I do think Brock Purdy will return to action here, but I don’t know about Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings. But still, I trust the Niners more at home, even against a Jags D that’s playing some good ball right now. I think Purdy and Christian McCaffrey will do just enough on offense, and the young San Francisco defense will continue to make some plays to eke out a win that looks eerily similar to the one last week.
And if the 49ers sit at 4-0 after everything they’ve had to deal with, it’ll be astounding.
Chiefs 24-20 Ravens 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
I just don’t know, man. What’s the read on this game?
The Ravens are the better team. But the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Though, Kansas City isn’t really their usual self right now. However, they’re getting Xavier Worthy back, which will drastically change their offensive outlook against a so-so Baltimore defense. And Derrick Henry has a fumbling issue. But surely that can’t continue. And Lamar Jackson is amazing, but the Ravens haven’t been able to win these games. But the Chiefs haven’t been able to run the ball. Although, Baltimore can’t really stop the run. But they can’t be 1-3, right? But the Chiefs can’t either, right?!
I’m literally being pulled in a million different directions. So, I’m just going with the gut feel and taking the Chiefs because I have no other ideas.
Bears 26-23 Raiders 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
This could feasibly be the highest-scoring game of Week 4 considering how neither of these pass defenses inspire a lot of confidence. If anything, it’ll be a passing extravaganza with both of these rushing offenses being complete non-factors through three weeks.
I’m begrudgingly leaning Chicago here because momentum is on their side. For what it’s worth, they’ve been a more consistent offense than Vegas, and Caleb Williams is coming off his best game as a pro. I think he and his buddy Rome Odunze can parlay that into another big game here against a Raiders team that’s a bit lost and confused at the moment.
Packers 31-14 Cowboys 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Micah Parsons revenge game storyline completely shrouds the fact that this game should not be remotely close. The Cowboys defense is a complete disaster, they just lost their best player on offense in CeeDee Lamb and the Packers are going to play pissed off after their loss last week.
Don’t get me wrong, Dak Prescott is playing good ball right now, and Dallas’ run game is really good. But will that offense be able to keep up with Green Bay, who could score every time they touch the ball, without Cedarian? I like George Pickens and Jalen Tolbert, but come on now. Not against that Packers defense.
Jets 22-19 Dolphins
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Someone’s gotta win. No one’s gonna watch.
I originally picked the Jets, but then I thought about it. And I just don’t know if the Dolphins are going to get the requisite QB play to get this one done. Tua played well against New England, but that’s sandwiched in between two really bad games. If the solid Tua shows up, Miami should win. If not… we know what happens. And I’m just banking on the latter since it unfortunately feels like the new norm for him. And if Mike McDaniel gets fired on Tuesday because of it, I’m going to feel awful.
Broncos 23-18 Bengals 
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC
I probably would have picked the Broncos to win this game even if Joe Burrow were playing for the Bengals. It has nothing to do with Bo Nix and everything to do with the state of both of these defenses.
Honestly, I think it’ll be the run games that make the difference in this one. I think Denver should be able to run it all over Cincy with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey while Chase Brown continues to get completely smothered in the backfield on the other side. That’ll open things up enough for the Broncos offense to do what they’ve got to do. And while I don’t think Jake Browning will put up the disasterclass he did last week, I still don’t believe it’ll be pretty against another elite defense.
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