Cover photo taken from Opta Analyst.
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 11-5
Packers 24-20 Commanders 
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
This one was circled as a loss even before the season began. Back in May, I was sitting in a car shop waiting for some repairs when I saw that we’d be going to Lambeau Field on a short week to play a team I already thought was pretty good and thought, yup, “That’s a loss.” Then the Packers got Micah Parsons, and I’m even more sure of it.
A lot of people might see this as reverse psychology or whatever, but it’s not. I know when to yield to a team that’s better. That being said, this is a hell of an opportunity to go out there and make a statement. I know Jayden Daniels is ready to shine in primetime, and I hope that our defensive line can replicate their Week 1 performance against a beat up Packers OL. I just have to pick Green Bay here because of circumstance.
Bengals 27-22 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Considering the nature of these two defenses — though they both played well a week ago — I’m expecting a good amount of points in this one. And who do you trust in a shootout? Usually the better offense in case they have the ball last. Or the better defense that can step up and make a necessary stop.
In either case, I’m sticking with the home team. Cincinnati is way too talented to struggle like they did against Cleveland in Week 1. This ain’t the Browns defense, and it isn’t an AFC North slugfest. So I’m expecting a performance that’s more par for the course in orange and black. But don’t sleep on the Jags offense to make some noise.
Cowboys 23-10 Giants 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Kind of gross? I mean, the Cowboys did look pretty good in the opener in Philly. The run game was moving, Dak Prescott looked very comfortable and the defense exceeded expectations. Back at home against a lifeless Giants team that can’t move the ball, I’m expecting a nice and easy win for Dallas.
The only thing that really interests me in this contest is whether or not we see a quarterback not named Russell Wilson take some snaps for New York.
Lions 24-17 Bears 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Oh, brother. What does Ben Johnson have in store for his revenge game? What is Caleb Williams going to look like after a horrendous start to the season? Are the Lions going to figure out what’s happening on their offense? So many questions!
In a spot like this, I really don’t know who to trust. But then I look at the Lions’ offensive personnel, and I say, “Yeah, I’ll take those guys.” Because at least I’ve seen what they’re capable of, even when the architect of that is now on the opposing sideline. I haven’t seen anything I like out of the Johnson-Williams tandem. Maybe this is the game they show me something. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Rams 23-13 Titans 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This one could be ugly for the Titans considering how well the Rams defense played last week. I’d like to think that Tennessee can only go up from how poorly coached they were and how awful their offensive skill position players were last week in Denver. But my faith isn’t very high. Poor Cam Ward.
The Rams are dealing with some injuries up front, which could create problems. But if they could survive against Houston’s ferocious defense last week, I think they’ll be just fine against Tennessee.
Dolphins 23-20 Patriots 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Call me crazy. This is a great spot to buy low on the Dolphins. At home, divisional matchup, early season in south Florida. It just feels like it makes sense.
Now, it could also make sense for Miami to continue the dysfunction and come out looking absolutely horrendous. I’m never ruling out that possibility. The Patriots weren’t bad by any means last week, but I worry about their offense in terms of getting consistent production out of the passing game. The Dolphins still feel like the team with the better chance to make the game-changing play on offense.
49ers 16-10 Saints 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Ah, yes. Mac Jones vs. Spencer Rattler. Appointment television, I tell you.
I wanted to pick the Saints here; if there was ever a time to do so, it’s now. But I actually think Macaroni is the type of QB that Kyle Shanahan can win with, especially against a depleted New Orleans secondary. Besides, if Christian McCaffrey can make a play or two, that’s all the Niners need. We know the Saints aren’t going to do anything worth a damn on offense.
Bills 27-17 Jets 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Can the Jets replicate what we saw last week against Pittsburgh? It’s entirely possible. I’d like to think that Justin Fields can play more like that and less like what we’ve seen at his previous stops.
But, it’s far more likely that the Bills come out and hoop like they always do against their divisional foes. Though the Jets have always been the thorn in their side in the AFC East, this doesn’t feel like a spot where they lose. I worry about the emotional aftermath following last week’s thriller on SNF, but they’re too sound across the board to drop this game.
It might be closer than I imagine, but I can’t bring myself to pick against Buffalo.
Steelers 24-16 Seahawks 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Before last week, I may have had this pick flipped. But what the Steelers passing game showed me was very promising. Is it sustainable? Who knows. But I think they can keep it up for one more week against an absolutely putrid Seahawks secondary.
Besides, this is the DK Metcalf revenge game. I’m expecting some big numbers from him in his home debut. I’d also like to see Pittsburgh’s run game take a jump, but it probably won’t matter with Seattle’s defensive backfield being so porous.
Ravens 27-10 Browns 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
I hate to discount the power of an AFC North game, but there’s a reason why the Ravens are 11.5-point favorites in this game. This is still probably the best team in the NFL, and while the Browns defense is plenty good, the offense leaves a lot to be desired.
In any case, I don’t see a world where the Ravens start 0-2. Famous last words circa 2024, I know. But surely things are different this time… right?
Colts 16-13 Broncos 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
I’m a real sicko who can’t wait for this game because both of these teams fascinated me so much last week. These were the top two teams in defensive EPA/play in Week 1 — Denver was particularly insane due to the ineptitude of Tennessee’s offense — but the Broncos were 28th in offensive EPA/play while the Colts were 6th. In that same vein, Daniel Jones was seventh in EPA+CPOE while Bo Nix was 21st with three turnovers.
Do these trends continue on Sunday afternoon in Indy? It’s hard to know. I feel like I should trust the Broncos more here, but I’m just so turned off by what I saw against Tennessee. I do think both defenses will show up and show out in this game, leaving the end result up to which QB goofs up in the end. And based on what I saw in Week 1, I think that’ll be Bo Nix. What a time to be alive!
Cardinals 30-17 Panthers 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
I don’t know that I can pick the Panthers to beat anyone with how bad their defense is, let alone how inept their offense looked a week ago. So, just give me the Cardinals at home, and let’s move on.
Chiefs 20-17 Eagles 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Am I worried about the Chiefs’ lack of WRs, subpar pass rush and alarming defensive performance last week? Yes I am. Was I impressed with the Eagles in their opener after a vanishing act by their WRs and a less-than-desirable night from their defense? No I was not. Something’s gotta give.
I just feel like this isn’t a spot where the Chiefs are going to lose. It’s hard to picture this team at 0-2, and you’d gotta think they want to make up for what happened in New Orleans back in February. That’s how it was for the Eagles in this matchup back in 2023 having lost Super Bowl LVII earlier in the calendar year.
Please don’t let me down again, Kansas City.
Vikings 23-16 Falcons 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Another SNF banger. This one fascinates me. What does Michael Penix Jr. have for an encore against another diabolical defensive mind? How does JJ McCarthy follow up his MNF heroics from a week ago? I can’t wait to find out.
I’d like to think that the Vikings defense will make the difference in this game. Penix had a test last week against Todd Bowles, but Brian Flores is a whole ‘nother beast. Minnesota is going to throw stuff at him that he’s never seen before. I think he and this Falcons offense are equipped to handle it, but I do think some cracks will show. And I think the Vikes offense will do just enough against an admittedly improved Falcons defense to get the job done.
Texans 23-20 Buccaneers 
Monday, 7 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
Surely, surely, this is the week the Texans offense figures it out. This isn’t a very vaunted secondary lining up across from these talented wide receivers, and we saw how good the run game could be last week. If CJ Stroud just has enough time to throw, I think Houston should put up some points.
I think the Buccaneers are equipped to handle Houston’s defense, but their patchwork offensive line against the Texans’ insane front seven gives me pause. I don’t think I can pick a team to win when there’s seemingly that big of a mismatch in the trenches, even if their offense has itself figured out while Houston’s doesn’t.
Raiders 27-24 Chargers 
Monday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
You know I like a home dog in a divisional game (because that strategy worked out so well last week, right?).
I think the Chargers are much better than the Raiders are, and Brock Bowers potentially being out definitely scares me. But I still think Vegas has the juice on offense to make this a game. Expect some big plays from the rookie duo of Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton.
While I think LA will still get their game off, I just have a feeling that the Raiders will make a couple of plays late and steal a home-opening win. It’s this week’s ultimate vibes play.
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