Cover photo taken from CNN.
Eagles 30-17 Cowboys 
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Eagles were never going to lose on the night that they drop a second banner at the Linc. They certainly aren’t going to lose now that Dallas’ already awful defense just lost its best player. Could Kenny Clark’s presence in the middle slow down Saquon Barkley? Probably not. Regardless, no one in the Cowboys secondary is going to be stopping AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith anytime soon. Philadelphia could run away with this one — hence this spread ballooning by nearly two points in recent days.
Chiefs 20-17 Chargers 
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, YouTube
Oh, São Paulo. Why we keep sending games there is kind of beyond me. But, at least the NFL has had the decency to give the Brazilians good matchups. Philly-Green Bay last year was a blast, and I think this one will be too. It’ll be a lot more defensive than that game was, but it’ll be a good one. Both times these two faced off last year, it was a defensive slugfest with neither team eclipsing the 20-point mark. So I’m expecting more of the same here, particularly with Rashee Rice being out for the Chiefs. But, they’ll still come out on top — probably on another last-second field goal — because they’re the Chiefs and the Chargers always lose like this. We’ve seen this film before.
Falcons 26-23 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
In Week 1 divisional games, anything goes. I know the Bucs are a slight favorite here, but I think you can throw so much stuff out the window. If Tristan Wirfs can’t go, it’d be a major loss for Tampa, even with Atlanta’s pass rush being as unproven as it is. But, in any case, I see this as a spot where Michael Penix Jr. goes out there and slings it for four quarters, putting up big numbers against a so-so secondary and leading the Falcons to a win. Just a vibes play.
Bengals 26-17 Browns 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The Bengals can’t possibly start slow and lose to the Browns again… right? They certainly hope so. Cincy played their starters in the preseason for a reason. I don’t know if that strategy will bear fruit, but in any case, they have no business losing this game. Just like they had no business losing to the Patriots the year prior, and so on and so forth. Don’t let me down again, please!
Dolphins 27-24 Colts 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
For what it’s worth, the Dolphins love to start hot in September. The weather is pleasant — hell, this game is indoors — the expectations are low, and Tua is free. Combine that with the Colts being in a sticky QB situation and this feels like a winnable game for Miami on the road.
Raiders 27-20 Patriots 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
I feel like this game is flying under the radar as one of the better matchups of Week 1. The return of both Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll, the Vegas debuts of Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, Drake Maye’s first game in the new-look Patriots offense and so much more. I’m going to miss it due to being at the Commanders game, but I gladly would’ve put this one on the second monitor in the early window. I lean Raiders simply because of their superior offensive talent, but with both defenses being unknowns, this one could really go either way. It’s also a tough road trip out east for Vegas, but I think they can handle it. They won’t be the undisciplined, sloppy bunch of the past.
Cardinals 22-13 Saints 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Yeah, I want nothing to do with this one. The Saints might win this game sheerly because of how much we’re completely disregarding them, but I wouldn’t bet on that to happen. I can’t trust that franchise with anything right now. If Arizona loses after I was so kind to them, I’ll be upset.
Jets 16-13 Steelers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Ah, yes. The Parent Trap game, but for quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields each face their old friends from a year ago and are out for revenge. You’d think the opposing team knows their former quarterbacks well, but I don’t know if the new-look Jets are ready for Rodgers the way Tomlin will be for Fields. Regardless, neither quarterback is going to play well. This has defensive slugfest written all over it as both offenses are still a work in progress while the defenses have known talent. I’m taking the Jets to win it sheerly based on vibes — I think Aaron Glenn is going to have them seriously juiced up to win, and all they need is a couple of more trips inside the 30 than Pittsburgh to kick some field goals and come out on top.
Commanders 23-20 Giants 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Ah shoot, here we go again. Our arch nemeses are back in town looking to spoil the fun of a season opener that kicks off a year where our expectations have never been higher. Surely this goes well, right? Listen, Russell Wilson has always given us trouble and Brian Daboll just has our number for some reason. Both of our matchups last year were close, though we were in control for most of the second game. And Russ is certainly an upgrade over Daniel Jones. So, it won’t be easy, which is why I’d gladly take the Giants to cover. But, we should be able to handle business in the end. I think our superior talent on offense will get it done, putting up just enough points to eke by.
Jaguars 30-27 Panthers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Another underrated matchup here. Both of these teams are sneaky playoff candidates in the eyes of many, and both of them have some shiny new toys to display. I expect Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan to each make some plays in this game, particularly with neither defense being much to look at. Really, the difference for me comes down to Jacksonville just having a little bit more juice on offense. I think Brian Thomas Jr. is in for a big game, even with Jaycee Horn lining up across from him. In any case, this one should actually be fun, and I’ll be interested to watch it back early next week.
Broncos 28-13 Titans 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
This is my survivor pool pick of the week, which is something I’ve had set in my mind for months now. I like what Tennessee has going on, and I’m a fan of Cam Ward, but to go on the road to play the best defense in the NFL in your first start is a tall task. This just doesn’t feel like a spot where Denver is going to get upset. They’re one of the biggest favorites of Week 1 for a reason. This one should be fairly simple against a Titans team that’s still figuring itself out. But if Ward goes out there and lights it up, it’d be pretty cool to see.
Seahawks 27-24 49ers 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Only the higher powers know what the 49ers are going to look like in this game. Jauan Jennings should play thanks to his contract being restructured, but there are still so many questions at WR. And that defense will take a minute to figure itself out. Seattle is simply the team with less unknowns, so I’ll trust them to take this one at home. I think JSN and the rest of the Seahawks offense could be in for a big game against a San Francisco defense with a lot of moving parts.
Packers 26-20 Lions 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Best game of the week? Some people are saying so. It’s hard to disagree — rivalry game in a national window with the best team from the 2024 regular season and a trendy Super Bowl pick that just made the move of the offseason. It’ll be a fun one. I’m really interested to see how both of these teams look, because there’s a chance that they each shut up the naysayers or prove them right. The Lions could come out sluggish on both sides of the ball due to all they lost in the offseason, or they could look like the same team from a year ago and put those doubts to bed. The Packers could come out and dominate and look like the contender we think they can be, or they can fall flat like they did last year in this matchup at home. I can see it going any which way. But, for Week 1, I think the Packers are in a better spot, and I won’t pick against them at home.
Rams 23-20 Texans 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
I really wanted to pick the Texans here because of their superior defense. I think these offenses match up well with one another, although I have doubts about Houston’s ability to run the ball. I think CJ Stroud and company will be able to throw it on the Rams’ young secondary while a potentially limited Matt Stafford might struggle against the Texans elite D. But something’s just pulling me towards the Rams pulling this one out late. It’s just a feeling. My mind’s telling me Houston, but my body says LA.
Bills 23-20 Ravens 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
As exciting as this matchup is, I haven’t given much thought to the Ravens winning it. It’s obviously a very possible outcome — this game is practically a toss-up, and I’ve said that I like Baltimore’s roster more. It’s more about Buffalo for me; it’s the first game of their final season at the Ralph, and it feels like they’re going to come out with their hair on fire. If their defense can do just enough to make Lamar Jackson a little uncomfortable, I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to do the rest and pull this one out late. But, there’s also a world where Lamar and Derrick Henry go nuclear and they pull off the mini-upset. I think I’ll stick with my gut.
Vikings 24-17 Bears 
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is unironically the biggest game in Chicago since the 2018 Wild Card game against Philadelphia. The Bears and their fans have been waiting for the Ben Johnson era to begin, hoping that it’s as exciting and fruitful as they think it’s going to be. I think Kevin O’Connell and more particularly Brian Flores have other ideas. I trust Minnesota’s defense even if I’m not big on their talent on the backend. I think their new offensive line will hold up against a stout Bears front. I worry about JJ McCarthy making his first career start, but I have to believe that he’ll be up for the moment. And while I don’t expect Caleb Williams to look bad by any means, I need to see this offense legitimately cook against a worthy defense to buy in. You can bet your bottom dollar that I will be watching Johnson and Caleb with great interest on Monday night.
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