Cover photo taken from Getty Images.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
Our long-awaited series finale takes us to Tampa, where the Buccaneers are primed to not just get back to the playoffs, but potentially make a deep postseason push with an elite offense and an improving defense.
Considering a number of factors — this team just won the division, is favored to repeat and I’m running behind schedule (sorry!) — I’ll try to keep this one brief. Plus, we pretty much know everything there is to know about this Tampa Bay squad.
It starts with the offense, which was must-see TV a year ago and figures to be the same this season. And that offense starts with Baker Mayfield, who has shut me and many a pundit completely up by completely reviving his career with the Bucs. Behind Mayfield and OC Liam Cohen — who has since infamously departed for Jacksonville — this unit was a wagon in 2024, ranking 5th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate with a highly efficient and balanced offensive attack. Even with a number of injuries at receiver to guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, this passing attack was a fearsome one, and last year’s rookie stud Bucky Irving made a massive impact as a do-it all back.
Plus, this offensive line was nothing short of elite, ranking fifth in pass block win rate and sixth in run block win rate. Standout blindside blocker Tristan Wirfs led the league in the former and ranked first by PFF in pass blocking among tackles, but is recovering from offseason knee surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. Still, with guys like Luke Goedeke, Cody Mauch and Graham Barton holding things down, this will be a fantastic OL once again.
Honestly, this offense could be even better than it was last year with some new juice at receiver. The Bucs took Ohio State legend Emeka Egbuka with in the first round and might be able to squeeze the most out of seventh-rounder Tez Johnson from Oregon. With Evans and Godwin aging and second-year stud Jalen McMillan recovering from a neck injury, keep an eye out for those two youngins.
It was the other side of the ball that led to Tampa’s undoing last season. This defense was just 17th in EPA/play, and although their front was stout against the run at eighth in rushing success rate, their secondary was a major weakness, clocking in at 27th in dropback success rate. The defensive line could get after the passer with the 11th-highest pass rush win rate in the league, but against the run, they were second-worst. It was very Jekyll and Hyde, and when it mattered most, it bit them in a big way.
With guys like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey in the middle, this figures to be a difficult defense to run on. There isn’t a blue-chip edge rusher, but YaYa Diaby and Logan Hall are some solid young pieces and newcomer Haason Reddick should give them a boost. The backend will hope to get massive contributions from third-round selection Jacob Parrish, who I was really high on coming out of Kansas State. He’s too small to play outside, but he performs above his size and could be a very effective nickel in Todd Bowles’ scheme. Second-round pick Benjamin Morrison — another one of my favorite DBs in this class — is recovering from a preseason hamstring injury, but when he returns, he should help raise the unit as a boundary corner opposite of Jamel Dean. And Antoine Winfield Jr. is solid as always as a free safety.
X-Factor: The Secondary
For some reason, this unit just refuses to gel. They don’t have a clear-cut lockdown CB1 who can go MEG against a guy like AJ Brown or Ja’Marr Chase, which is fine, but can undoubtedly bite them in a big game. Their safeties are better against the pass than the run, but that doesn’t always show up when the corners are getting dusted. If the rookies can provide the juice that Bowles was looking for when drafting them, I think it’ll pay off in a huge way. An improved secondary is genuinely the only thing that stands in the way of the Buccaneers truly contending for the NFC.
Team MVP: QB Baker Mayfield
The Baker renaissance in Tampa has been a delight to watch. He has finally found a place to call home that trusts him and believes in him, and he is excelling because of it. Last season, he was 6th in EPA+CPOE, 5th in success rate, 13th in QBR, third in passing, second in touchdowns and fourth in passer rating. Joe Burrow was the only other QB in football to throw for over 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Pretty good company to keep. This will be Mayfield’s third consecutive season with a new OC as Josh Grizzard gets the promotion from pass game coordinator, but considering the existing relationship there, I expect another really productive and exciting season from the unlikeliest of top-12 quarterbacks.
Breakout Candidate: WR Emeka Egbuka
If you want a sleeper/value pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, you’re looking at it right now. Obviously, Emeka is my guy, but I think his talent and potential is well-known at this point. Ohio State’s all-time leader in receptions wasn’t drafted in the first round for no reason. The Bucs may have had other needs, but they took the best player available, and I think it’s going to pay dividends. Egbuka is their WR1 in waiting, but he could claim that role as a rookie. He’s smooth and silky with soft hands and underrated physicality that allows him to excel as a true three-level threat. He can do the dirty work underneath, go across the middle in the intermediate or take the top off the defense if you cut him loose. The one thing lacking in this Tampa WR room last year was top-end speed. Now they have it and then some.
Record Prediction: 11-6
Could the Panthers or Falcons make a jump and surprise some people by winning the division? Sure. Anything is possible. But the Bucs feel like a shoe-in to win the NFC South for the fifth year in a row — although it’s oftentimes by the skin of their teeth. This team is too talented from top to bottom, and even though the coaching isn’t amazing by any means, it clears any other team in their division. It’s a manageable schedule by their standards, and I think an improved secondary and some more youth on offense will put them in a position to potentially go on a little bit of a run once the playoffs roll around.
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