Cover photo taken from Imagn Images.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
Our second-to-last venture of the series takes us down to Atlanta where the Falcons are trying their best to put a contending roster on the field, but still have some deficiencies to overcome, particularly on defense.
I feel like the story around the Falcons is that there is no story. Of all the teams entering year two with a 2024 first-round quarterback, Atlanta is the most boring because there’s just nothing to latch onto. I guess that’s not their fault, but as the clear-cut second-best team in their own division with a lack of clear direction, I feel like this franchise has fallen by the wayside.
But, I still think there’s hope in Atlanta. That mostly stems from Michael Penix Jr., who I believe can be a very good — maybe not great, though — quarterback in this league. We hardly got a glimpse of him last year, and he expectedly flashed some epic highs and some concerning lows. I was at his second start in Washington, and every throw was a coinflip between an absolute seed and a horribly inaccurate duck. But, for what it’s worth in those final three games he ranked 11th in EPA+CPOE and 8th in success rate. So the highs outweighed the lows. With a full offseason under his belt as the starting QB surrounded by some great offensive talent, I think he’ll have a very solid season.
It’ll help that he has absolute blue-chip studs at RB and WR. Bijan Robinson has turned into the player we all knew he could be: a top-5 runningback who’s arguably the shiftiest player in the league and an ultimate weapon out of the backfield. And, for my money, Drake London is a top-10 receiver in football. He’s simply a matchup nightmare — a guy of his size should not move as well as he does, and he’s unguardable at the catch point.
I do worry that the rest of this offense is lacking in playmakers, but Bijan and London can clearly carry a big load. And if Kyle Pitts breaks out… you know what, nevermind. But with a hobbled Kirk Cousins at QB for most of last year, this unit was still 13th in EPA/play and a whopping fourth in success rate, including first (!) in rushing success rate. That’s a testament to an offensive line that punches above its weight and a blue-chip back.
The defense, on the other hand, is still a concern. Atlanta did their best to finally gain a pass rush by drafting two former stars in the SEC, taking Georgia OLB Jalon Walker with the No. 11 overall pick, then — inexplicably, in my opinion — trading a 2026 first-rounder to the Rams to move up to No. 27 overall to take Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. Time will tell if that move was a smart one, but I just don’t like it. But, I can see a world where they form the best young edge rush duo in football, which the Falcons are sure hoping for. This defensive line was 27th in pass rush win rate and 26th in run stop win rate a year ago, and Atlanta famously hasn’t had a double-digit sack edge rusher since John Abraham in 2008. Maybe Walker or Pearce finally breaks the curse.
In any case, that side of the ball was the priority this offseason, as the Falcons brought in a whole host of names at every level: Divine Deablo, Leonard Floyd and Jordan Fuller as free agents plus Xavier Watts, Billy Bowman and the aforementioned edge rushers in the draft. And there was already plenty of talent on this defense with AJ Terrell, Jessie Bates, and some young guys like Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison. The way I see it, if a defensive-minded head coach in Raheem Morris can’t figure it out with these guys, I don’t know when he will. I’m not a huge fan of him as a HC, and his defense being 20th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate last year was pretty baffling. Assuming the offense does its thing — pretty contingent on Penix — this defense could be the difference between making a playoff push and having a redux of 2024.
X-Factor: The Defensive Line
On that note, this DL — particularly the pass rush — will need to be the difference-maker if this team wants to do what they couldn’t last year. The Falcons lost their last two games of the year in overtime to miss out on the playoffs, and in each games, they simply couldn’t get after the quarterback. This team was 31st in sacks last season, but what’s even crazier is that they haven’t ranked in the top-1o in sacks since 2004. That was four presidents ago. Again, Atlanta made the moves they did in order to get after QBs this season. If it was all for nothing, you might as well copy paste last season to this one.
Team MVP: RB Bijan Robinson
Very few backs that I’ve ever watched have a skillset like Bijan. His shiftiness is on another level and he’s impossible to bring down in the open field or on first contact. You’ve gotta fly to the ball when it’s in his hands, or you’ll be staring at the back of his jersey as he runs to the endzone. Last year was his true breakout, racking up 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in addition to 61 receptions, 431 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air. He’s an ultimate Swiss army knife that’s going first overall in many fantasy drafts for a reason. I think he’ll make a real push at Offensive Player of the Year this season.
Breakout Candidate: DE Jalon Walker
I had to pick one of the first-rounders, and I’m taking Walker simply because I believe in him more. He might not have had the production in college, but he’s got a more natural twitch to him, which is what caused his stock to rise and Pearce’s to fall. At 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, he’s a little small for the edge rusher that the Falcons drafted him to be, but I think his athleticism and burst can help him get the job done in the pros. Besides, he’s more of an outside linebacker, so Morris can use him in a lot of different, unique ways. His length and quickness will undoubtedly help this run defense, and if he plays above his size and fine-tunes his edge rushing, he can be a very productive player for years to come.
Record Prediction: 8-9
I’ve sprinkled it in across this preview, but I just feel like this is going to be 2024 part two for the Falcons. Do I think their defense could be better? Sure. But I need to see it to believe it. Do I think they’re going to get better quarterback play? Probably. But Penix still might have some growing pains (kind of insane to say about a 25-year old, but alas). And I’m just not terribly fond of this coaching staff. Combine that with a tricky schedule against the likes of the NFC West, AFC East and teams like Washington and Minnesota, and finishing above .500 feels like an uphill climb.
Next up: 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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