Cover photo taken from PFF.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re back in the NFC North with its most polarizing team as the Bears are once again riding a slew of offseason hype despite having the single biggest disaster of a 2024 season imaginable thanks to a shiny new head coach and some offensive firepower.
I couldn’t tell you why. Chicago was horrendous last year. After being billed as the greatest QB prospect of the century who was entering the greatest situation a No. 1 pick has ever been in, Caleb Williams was abysmal. They lost 10 games in a row — the worst mark in franchise history — after losing on a Hail Mary debacle in Washington. They fired their head coach and offensive coordinator in the middle of the season and finished the year with their passing game coordinator as their HC. They had four games where they didn’t score an offensive touchdown.
And yet, here we are. Another preseason of the media insisting that this is the year for Chicago because of X, Y and Z. Sure thing, y’all. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I suppose it’s not for no reason. The big move was hiring Lions OC Ben Johnson to be the new head coach, bringing his supposed offensive genius to Chicago and mold Caleb into the quarterback most people think he can be. I am personally completely out on Johnson for a number of reasons, including his strange falling out with the Commanders’ brass last offseason and his seemingly gigantic ego. This is the guy who was calling trick plays down double digits in a home playoff game, trusting a WR to make a big throw for some reason. This screams Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas to me. I do think Johnson is a good offensive mind, but I also know that he thinks very highly of himself. So I just don’t see it.
Combine that with Caleb, and I think this could go very poorly very quickly. We know the talent that the former Heisman winner has; he was the easy pick at No. 1 and obviously has one of the wildest athletic profiles we’ve ever seen from a college quarterback. But this guy was 27th in EPA+CPOE, 30th in success rate, 28th in QBR and took a league-leading 68 sacks a year ago. Everyone will blame the coaching or playcalling or offensive line or anything else under the sun. But, this offensive line was 15th in pass block win rate. And all I heard last summer was that former OC Shane Waldron was a great playcaller. And Hard Knocks told me to expect massive things out of Williams and the offense. Well, that offense finished 26th in EPA/play, 30th in success rate and 28th in scoring. So don’t give me that revisionist history.
The reality is that Williams was clearly overwhelmed by the speed of the pros, often hanging onto the ball forever and running around in the backfield like he was still playing San Jose State. He was consistently inconsistent, following up great throws with zip and accuracy with floaters that’d land in the stands. The 68-sack number has more to do with his lack of a feel for the pocket and less to do with that offensive line, although I do recognize that it wasn’t ideal. But, neither was a guy like Drake Maye’s, and I felt better about his feel for it than Caleb’s.
Johnson took this job because of Williams. If these two can’t make it work together, I don’t know who the fans and media are going to blame. Because all I hear right now is how nothing is Caleb’s fault.
The good news is that Johnson is clearly going to implement the things that made his Lions offenses so effective. The Bears beefed up the interior by making moves for Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson to create one of the better guard-center-guard combos in the league. I do still worry about the tackles, which isn’t great news for Caleb, but that interior is legit — they also drafted Ozzy Trapilo in the second round for some depth at RT. They added to an already solid corps of pass-catchers by drafting TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III with their first two picks, with Johnson looking to turn the former into another Sam LaPorta. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are already solid, so this offense won’t be lacking for weapons. But, that was the case last year, too.
In any case, this defense will still be a strongsuit. They have talent everywhere and finished 13th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate last year. The real strength is the secondary, considering they were 10th in dropback EPA vs. 26th in rush EPA in 2024. And I don’t think they did enough to get better against the run this offseason, though signing Grady Jarrett and drafting Shemar Turner out of Texas A&M should help. The defensive line as a whole simply needs to be better — this unit was 24th in pass rush win rate and 29th in run stop win rate. The secondary will do their job thanks to guys like Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker, but the front seven needs to button up if they want to lend the offense a hand. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen should be able to do just that.
X-Factor: QB Caleb Williams
It’s weird to say this for a No. 1 pick in year two, but this feels like a make-or-break year for Caleb. The pressure and expectations on him feel pretty tremendous. I feel bad, because I don’t think they should! He’s just in year two and he clearly has a ton of work to do. But I truly think that if this year looks like last year, this team might make a move off him. Like I said earlier, you can’t blame the coaching staff or offensive line anymore, right? This is now a second straight year of everyone saying that the situation around Caleb is a great one. So if he’s bad again, it’s solely on him.
We know he has the talent, but I really worry about the character. Laying on the ground or bench after sacks, bad body language after picks and incompletions, the weird media fiasco this summer where it seemed like he tried to avoid being drafted by Chicago and so much more. From the neck down, he has everything it takes to be a franchise QB. But from the neck up, I’m just not sure.
If he takes to coaching and learns how to be a pocket passer, use his mobility more effectively, find his accuracy and timing and rhythm and just show some more maturity, then the Bears are in business. But at this point, it feels like a big ask.
Team MVP: N/A
I don’t know. I just don’t know. I wanted to give it to the secondary or the defense at large, but they had their weak points last year and they don’t feel better this year, though I expect improvements under Dennis Allen. I wanted to give it to an individual DB like Jaylon Johnson, but it just didn’t feel right. Someone’s gotta prove to me that they deserve this spot.
Breakout Candidate: TE Colston Loveland
As I said earlier, Loveland was drafted No. 10 overall for a reason. The tight ends are a big part of Ben Johnson’s offenses, and Loveland has been brought to Chicago to fill that role, despite the Bears already having a solid option in Cole Kmet. He was a monster at Michigan thanks to his over-the-top athleticism for a guy with a 6-foot-6, 241-pound frame. He can go up and grab any ball and has some pretty underrated quickness after the catch. I expect him to make an immediate impact as not just a security blanket for Caleb, but a focal point of the passing game — again, very similar to LaPorta in Detroit. I’m not saying he’s going to be Brock Bowers from last year, but he’ll put up some pretty good numbers.
Record Prediction: 4-13
By the overwhelmingly negative tone of this preview, you could probably tell that I don’t have high hopes for the Bears. I don’t like Ben Johnson, I don’t like what I’ve seen from Caleb Williams, and I don’t understand why so many people are falling for this again. Their schedule is ridiculously hard: their division was already a gauntlet littered with elite defenses before Micah Parsons entered the equation, and they have to play the NFC East, AFC North and the 49ers. Seems like a step up from the AFC South and NFC West last season. I don’t know how this gameplan will play out for GM Ryan Poles, but I just think this season is going to be a turbulent one. And there will be some uncomfortable questions to answer come January.
Next up: 
Green Bay Packers
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