Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
Our second dip into the AFC West brings us out to Los Angeles, where the Chargers enter year two of the Jim Harbaugh era with a bit of soul-searching to do after a disastrous end to 2024.
I want to believe in this franchise. Truly, I do. Jim Harbaugh is an elite head coach. You guys know how much I love Justin Herbert. By all means, this is one of the best HC-QB duos in the league. And the rest of the roster is pretty good to boot. I just don’t know that it’ll ever gel and result in truly contending in a stacked AFC, particularly with the rest of the West vastly improving.
Last year could’ve been the year. They were well-balanced and kept the ball out of harm’s way, finishing 4th in turnover differential. The offense was 12th in EPA/play while the defense was 5th and led the league in scoring. Herbert was good, but not great, finishing 13th in EPA+CPOE and failing to reach 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career (in a full season). And while he finished with just three interceptions in the regular season, we all know how the playoffs went: a four-interception disasterclass in Houston leading to another playoff exit, leaving Herbert searching for that first postseason victory.
So, regardless of how this regular season goes, the real key for this Chargers team is postseason play. The good news is that I fully expect them to get there. This roster is largely the same from a year ago with some big improvements in key areas, but there are a couple of places that I think could drag this squad down.
The first is the offensive line. Losing star LT Rashawn Slater for the season thanks to a freak injury in camp is simply brutal. It’s going to drastically effect Herbert’s protection and definitively hurt the OL’s run blocking. Last year’s first-round pick Joe Alt will slide to the left, which will be fine considering he played there in college and finished last year 4th among all tackles in pass block win rate. But, that leaves RT as a question mark, though Trey Pipkins is a capable player. I do like bringing in Mekhi Becton at guard, but the number of snaps he can play there is limited.
The second is the secondary, which wasn’t awful last year but doesn’t feel much better this year. Yes, there are decent pieces like Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart and Alohi Gilman, and Derwin James is a superstar at safety. But these corners feel very susceptible to me, and they didn’t make any moves in free agency to make me feel better about that. In fact, they made it worse by signing Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson.
The front seven should be fine despite losing Poona Ford, but they also lack the proverbial oomph needed to make me feel confident. But, DC Jesse Minter has proven himself to make it work regardless of the circumstance, and I don’t see why he can’t coach this unit to punch above its weight and finish as one of the best in the league again.
The good news is on offense. The RB room is getting a massive lift with the addition of first-round pick Omarion Hampton from North Carolina, who this coaching staff keeps raving about. He’s a bruiser who’s hard to bring down but has plenty of speed to his game, which could give the Chargers the spark they didn’t have out of the backfield a year ago. They also added Najee Harris in free agency, which was a move I didn’t really like in the moment and like a lot less now that he’s dealing with eye problems after a firework incident on Independence Day.
And I truly think this might be the best set of receivers that Herbert has ever had. Ladd McConkey is a bonafide stud at WR, coming off a massive rookie season with 82 catches, 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. Tre Harris is a second-round pick with a ton of upside that’ll see the field right away. Even fifth-rounder KeAndre Lambert-Smith is turning heads in the preseason. If Quentin Johnston can build off a much-improved 2024 — big ask, I know — then this could be a better passing offense than we realize.
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
Without Slater, this offensive line will have to collectively pick up the slack to keep Herbert upright and get this run game going. I outlined why I think that can happen, but in the event that it doesn’t, this offense could fall apart in a jiffy. I think Herbert can still be an effective quarterback and facilitator the way Harbaugh wants him to be even if the line play isn’t as good, but that’s a problem no QB ever wants to have. And if Hampton and the RBs can’t get it going, it’ll only bring the offense down more. This defense is good, but it’s not built to overcome that many problems. They’re meant to complement the death-by-a-thousand-papercuts offense.
Team MVP: QB Justin Herbert
For the millionth year in a row, it feels like Herbert is the most overhated quarterback in the league. Look, I know neither of his playoff games have gone very well. I think one of those is entirely his fault while the other one isn’t really. In any case, I know what my eyes tell me: Justin Herbert is a cyborg. This dude was built in a lab to play quarterback. At 6-foot-6, 236 pounds with an arm that can make any throw and honestly underrated mobility, he makes plays every week that make me sit up in my chair, even with Harbaugh and company dialing him back a little bit. He has the skillset and the tape that can go band for band with any other QB in football. For my money, he’s still the 6th best quarterback in the league. But, playoff performance is imperative. I need to see him finally show up and play a complete game in the postseason and just win. So many playoff wins and losses are decided by the quarterback, and right now, his playoff reputation is one of being a loser. Until that narrative is dispelled, he’s not going to get the national respect I think he deserves.
Breakout Candidate: RB Omarion Hampton
Jim Harbaugh has made his money with elite running back play. Toby Gerhart, Frank Gore, Karan Higdon, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards. Now, he gets Omarian Hampton to mess around with. He may lack the quickness of some of the better backs in the league, but once he gets going downhill, he’s hard to stop. I do have concerns about whether that deficiency of burst will hold him back from being a great back at the next level, but if he can find it, there’s no stopping this kid. He was the second RB off the board for a reason. You don’t want to be seeing him in the open field.
Record Prediction: 12-5
If I was redoing my record predictions today (full disclosure, I completed it before I started this series, which may have been a mistake considering how much things change in the preseason), I’d probably have this team closer to 10 or 11 wins. But, I’ll keep them at 12 for now because of how much I trust this head coach and quarterback. If the defense can keep up the level of play that they had last year and the offense gets that little bit of juice out of the newcomers, this should be a very similar, if not better season in LA. But, like I said, the real test will come in the postseason. They’ll likely have to go on the road in Wild Card weekend, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess.
Next up: 
Denver Broncos
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