Cover photo taken from FOX Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We’re finally taking our talents to the AFC West, where Kansas City has been brought back to Earth after being denied an unprecedented three-peat thanks to an all-time shellacking in the Super Bowl. But, they’re still the Chiefs, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. And that’s enough.
Say what you will about the Chiefs last year; “They got lucky!” or “The games were rigged!” or even “They didn’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl!” Nonsense. Put aside your hatred towards this franchise and simply recognize that this is how dynasties operate. It’s how the Patriots were for the 21st century before Mahomes rolled along.
That being said, last year was particularly peculiar for Kansas City. They set an NFL record going 10-0 in one-score games with many of them coming in ridiculous fashion. Games against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Las Vegas and others easily could’ve gone the other way, but the Chiefs still wound up at 15-1 in games that mattered en route to another trip to the Super Bowl — their third straight and fifth in six years.
But, between the close games and nothing crazy on either side of the ball, they didn’t really have the makings of a 15-win team. They were 9th in EPA/play on offense and 15th on defense, though it always felt like the defense was better. Similarly, the offensive line was eighth in pass block win rate and seventh in run block win rate despite feeling like the unit was a clear weak spot. Meanwhile, the defensive line was 19th in pass rush win rate and 21st in run stop win rate.
All the while, Mahomes had the worst season of his career with his lowest yardage and touchdown output ever. He was just 11th in EPA+CPOE and eighth in QBR while ranking 30th in ADOT above just Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa. In very anti-Mahomes fashion, he completed just 39.5% of passes that traveled 15 or more yards in the air, throwing four touchdowns and six interceptions on those passes. Losing Rashee Rice to injury early in the season didn’t help with that, but it’s still a pretty absurd figure considering the usual identity of this offense.
Still, the Chiefs did what they had to do in the playoffs, once again beating little brother Buffalo to get the chance to complete the league’s first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. We all know what happened next. I don’t want to rehash it. Now, it’s a matter of what comes next. Getting crushed in Super Bowl LV didn’t bury this franchise, because they’re pretty un-buri-able (hooray for words). But getting back to the mountaintop won’t be easy.
Travis Kelce is old. Borderline washed. Last year was by far the worst of his illustrious career, which is really saying something considering he had 97 catches for 823 yards, but only three touchdowns. By the end of the year, he looked slow, disinterested and ready to retire. I was pretty surprised when he decided to come back, and I imagine his time is running out. And considering what I saw last year, I don’t know how effective he’s going to be in this offense.
I do feel solid about the rest of that unit, though. Last year’s first-rounder Xavier Worthy proved himself as a very effective receiver, but maybe not a WR1. Rashee Rice will have that covered, but coming off an ACL tear and facing a potentially lengthy suspension, Worthy will have to step into that rule. Hollywood Brown is also a solid option and Juju Smith-Schuster is still around, but I’m keeping my eyes on fourth-round pick Jalen Royals from Utah State. He’s not the quickest or twitchiest, but he’s a very smooth player who could emerge as a starter if/when Rice misses time.
Where this offense really improved was along the line thanks to two simple moves. The first was signing Jaylon Moore, who was a skilled backup tackle in San Francisco and could find his way into the starting lineup since Jawaan Taylor is a penalty machine. The second and far more impactful one was drafting Ohio State LT Josh Simmons in the first round — more on that later, though. They did trade standout guard Joe Thuney to the Bears, but GM Brett Veach doesn’t make a move like that for no reason. They clearly like last year’s second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia, and Trey Smith is a star at RG. Combine those two with All-Pro Creed Humphrey at center, and they should be fine on the interior.
Defensively, this is essentially the same unit, just with some more young depth. 10 of the 11 starters were on the team last year, with the only notable loss being safety Justin Reid, who’s repalced by last year’s fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks. Tershawn Wharton’s replacement, Omar Norman-Lott, was taken in the second round this year. Other notable picks include DE Ashton Gillotte, LB Jeffrey Bassa and CB Nohl Williams, all of whom should find their way into meaningful snaps this season. In any case, as long as Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal and Trent McDuffie are suited up and being coached by Steve Spagnuolo, this defense will continue to be a strength.
X-Factor: WR Rashee Rice’s Suspension
After a high-speed hit-and-run back in March which led to him turning himself into the police and pleading guilty to two third-degree felonies, Rice is likely facing a lengthy suspension this season. The only two questions are when it’ll kick in, and how long it’ll be for. His hearing is scheduled for Sept. 30, so he can likely play in the first four games of the season. Then it’s a matter of how much time he’ll miss. There have been reports of four- or even eight-game suspensions, each of which would be very detrimental to this offense. It’s weird to think of the situation this way, but a lot of this year’s offensive success will hinge on his availability. We saw how much worse they were when he was out last year. But I will say that, above all else, his punishment should be a deserved one.
Team MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes
Pretty self-explanatory. Regardless of the ups and downs, Mahomes is the hand that guides this ship and keeps it steady. Most quarterbacks would fold under the ebbs and flows that the Chiefs have faced, but he is not most quarterbacks. He’s the most talented player we’ve ever seen, and that’s not going to change. It would be awesome to see him go back to being the Mahomes of old, but truthfully, he doesn’t need to be. The death-by-a-thousand-papercuts version is just as effective. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls after trading Tyreek Hill was proof of that. More than anything, I’m interested to see how he comes out after taking the beating of all beatings in Super Bowl LIX. You can either let it get to you and have it bog you down, or spark a flame to get back on top. I’m fully expecting the latter.
Breakout Candidate: LT Josh Simmons
I was going to put Xavier Worthy here, but let’s be honest: he has already broken out. Though last season wasn’t the flashiest for him, he was money in the playoffs and statpadded his way to a big Super Bowl statline. We know he’s legit. So, I’m rolling with first-round pick Josh Simmons. If not for an ACL tear in 2024, Simmons could’ve been the first tackle off the board, which is showing in camp as he’s emerged as a young stud to hold down the blindside. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he develops into one of the best tackles in the league in the next two or three years. So, it seems like Mahomes finally has his LT of the future. That’ll go a long way.
Record Prediction: 15-2
They’re still the Chiefs, folks. Even with an improved AFC West, a roster that’s getting older, some off-the-field distractions and the fact that they’re coming off an all-time embarrassment, this is still the cream of the crop in the NFL. I expect them to lose to Buffalo — since the Bills can only beat them in the regular season — and Denver on either side of the bye, but handle the rest of the tough matchups on the schedule as they always seem to. They’ll keep winning close games. People will keep complaining about them and the referees and the NFL at large. They will once again be the 1-seed in the AFC, they will play in their eighth straight conference championship game, and they’ll probably go back to the Super Bowl for the fourth straight year and sixth time in seven years. Because they are the Chiefs. And — unfortunate as it may be for some — they are inevitable.
Next up: 
Baltimore Ravens
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