Cover photo taken from Athlon Sports.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
One thing I’ve learned over the last three weeks is that the wheel likes to stick with the same divisions. We’ve already wrapped up the AFC South, NFC West and NFC East, we’re almost done with the AFC East, but haven’t even touched the AFC West and barely dipped into the NFC North.
All this to say, we’re sticking in the NFC South today where the Carolina Panthers are hoping to turn a strong finish to 2024 into a breakout 2025 in a make-or-break year for Bryce Young.
Last year was more of a tale of three thirds than two halves for the Panthers. The first third dealt with Bryce Young being benched after just two games, with Andy Dalton coming in and winning a game, then getting hurt to bring Bryce back in. The middle third saw some more struggles for the 2023 No. 1 pick, but gradual improvement as close wins over bad teams like the Saints and Giants turned into to close losses against great teams like the Chiefs and Eagles.
Then, the final third, which was really more like the final three weeks: the offense’s coming out party. In those final three games, the Panthers went 2-1 behind an emboldened Bryce Young, who had a passer rating of at least 100 in each of those games and was 7th among all QBs in EPA+CPOE in that stretch. For reference, he only eclipsed a 100-plus rating twice in his career until then. He was a scoring machine with 10 total touchdowns and zero turnovers, leading the offense to be fifth in EPA/play in the home stretch. And it all culminated in a 5-touchdown masterpiece to close out the year with a 44-38 win in Atlanta to knock the Falcons out of the playoff race.
Now, the question is whether or not that can be sustained. Dave Canales had his fair share of ups and downs in his first year as head coach, but maybe that was to be expected with the state of this roster. On the year, the offense was 23rd in EPA/play with an OL that ranked 30th in pass block win rate. Before finishing the year red-hot, Young was pretty bad with eight touchdowns to nine interceptions and a bottom-five EPA+CPOE among 35 qualified QBs. The run game was a bright spot, ranking 11th in rush EPA thanks to Chuba Hubbard’s career year with 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns.
But more than anything on offense, it was the other side of the ball that completely sullied 2024 in Carolina. This defense was dead last in total and rushing yards allowed, points allowed, EPA/play, success rate, rush EPA and run stop win rate while ranking 31st in dropback EPA and pass rush win rate. Let that sink in. All things considered, this was pretty comfortably the worst defense in football. You’re not going to win many games with a unit that bad, regardless of what’s happening on offense.
As such, bolstering the defense was the main focus of this offseason. Several big signings were made to fix the front seven and aid star DT Derrick Brown with Tershawn Wharton, Patrick Jones, Bobby Brown and Christian Rozeboom coming over in free agency while the team spent draft capital on Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen and Cam Jackson. The secondary — which already has a blue-chip superstar in Jaycee Horn — was improved with additions like Tre’von Moehrig in free agency and Lathan Ransom in the draft. DC Ejiro Evero better hope that he fixes that side of the ball, or it’ll be his last season in Charlotte.
That’s not to say the offense didn’t also see some improvement this summer. Two major moves stand out: selecting WR Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall and signing Rico Dowdle to create one of the sneaker RB duos in football alongside Hubbard. McMillan is an absolute stud — a 6-foot-4 monster with a massive catch radius and aggression at the catch point with some sneaky speed to boot. He’s the kind of player to bring the downfield juice to this offense that’s been missing since DJ Moore was sent to Chicago. Adding him to a WR corps which already has last year’s first-rounder Xavier Legette and steady veteran Adam Thielen means that Young will have his fair share of weapons to dish it out to.
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
This is my main concern with the Panthers this season. I obviously have my reservations about the defense, but at least there were moves made to improve all over there. Carolina is running back the same offensive line they had a year ago — the one which made Bryce Young consistently run for his life. It didn’t show up in the sack total, but as I mentioned earlier, this unit was third-worst in football in pass block win rate. Perhaps the bigger X-factor here is the passing game at large, as Bryce needs this to be the year he puts it all together. But his ability to do so is largely reliant on this line being able to consistently keep him up and block as effectively in the pass game as they do in the run game.
Team MVP: QB Bryce Young
No other option, right? Well, if he can turn his last three weeks of 2024 into the majority of his 2025, there’s no doubt. I’ve always been a fan of Bryce, even through the size concerns. The start to last year was extremely unsettling — his numbers were awful and his tape was worse. But now, it’s all starting to come together. In a second year with Dave Canales and with the new additions to his offense, the pieces are in place for Bryce to finally emerge as a top-15 quarterback in football. That would be a massive success considering how the first two years of his career have gone.
Breakout Candidate: WR Xavier Legette
Legette wasn’t drafted in the first round for no reason. He’s got a unique blend of size and speed, being 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds but still running a sub-4.4 40. He’s a yards after catch machine that makes his money in the quick game, turning shorter passes into longer runs. But, in last year’s offense, there wasn’t a lot of opportunity for that. The Panthers wanted Legette to be a downfield threat for whoever was lining up under center, but that’s not really his game. Now that McMillan has been brought in to truly fill that role, Legette should be able to thrive by doing what he does best. After no standout games or highlights a year ago, I expect XL to have a number of each in this revitalized passing game.
Record Prediction: 6-11
I really wanted to be nicer, but to be honest, it’s kind of hard to find the wins on this schedule. It’s not the most difficult, but there are a number of difficult road trips, and playing the NFC West is not going to be easy, not to mention games against Buffalo and Green Bay. On top of that, I need to see this defense play better before I believe that they’re going to. Yes, the moves they made this offseason are promising, but there wasn’t a single one that made me think things are going to magically get better. I do think this offense will be a very fun one to watch, but that won’t mean anything if the other side of the ball keeps getting gashed. But, if Bryce Young puts together the season we think he could have and the defense turns into a competent one, a record closer to .500 or even above it is within reach.
Next up: 
Kansas City Chiefs
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