Cover photo taken from Houston Chronicle.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
We round out the AFC South with the two-time defending division champion Texans, who feel like a shoe-in to three-peat. The question, however, remains the same: does the NFL’s brightest collection of young talent have enough to make serious noise in the playoffs?
We can get the obvious out of the way early: the Texans have been one of the NFL’s best and most exciting turnaround stories in recent memory, going from the cellar in 2021 and 2022 to one of the best young teams in football after adding HC DeMeco Ryans, GM Nick Caserio and QB CJ Stroud in 2023 to guide the franchise to success. After a drab combined 7-26-1 record in the two years prior to their arrival, Houston has gone 10-7 with upset home playoff wins in back-to-back years. Pretty great story on the surface.
But, there’s more to the picture, particularly as it pertains to last season. It was a struggle bus, especially in the second half of the year, losing six of their final 11 games before being bounced in the Divisional Round again. Practically all fingers can be pointed at the offense, which finished a drab 31st in success rate. The offensive line allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league with 54, clocking in at 22nd in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate. OC Bobby Slowik, who was once heralded as a boy genius and future head coach elsewhere in the league, was sent packing after the season’s end.
As such, CJ Stroud suffered a falloff from his historic rookie season, finishing 28th in EPA+CPOE and 27th in success rate — he was 12th and 14th, respectively, in ’23. He threw for nearly 400 less yards, three less touchdowns and tossed seven more INTs, seeing his passer rating drop from 100.8 to 87.0. It wasn’t all his fault — the offensive line was a glaring weakness and he dealt with a number of injuries to his wideouts — but it’s still not what you want to see from your franchise quarterback after such a prolific rookie season.
Still, Stroud is an insanely talented player who will be an elite quarterback for years to come. While the line remains a problem, one thing Houston has in bunches is pass-catching talent, which they need after dealing with so many dings a year ago. Nico Collins has emerged as a top-10 receiver in football, coming off another brilliant season despite missing extended time. Christian Kirk was brought in to provide some juice in the slot. And the Texans spent two high draft picks on Iowa State WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who bring an added level of athleticism to a receiving corps already littered with freaks of nature. Plus, Dalton Schultz is a proven stud at tight end. If/when Tank Dell returns from his leg injury, Houston could boast one of the league’s best receiver rooms.
But I still don’t know how to feel about that side of the ball because of how the line is shaping up. I don’t know if the way to fix this OL was to trade away its best player in LT Laremy Tunsil, but the Texans did just that. Signing Cam Robinson as his replacement and bringing in Laken Tomlinson to plug and play at guard could help. Houston also spent a second-round pick on Minnesota tackle Aireontae Ersery, who should slot in immediately at RT. Between those additions and trading away former first-round bust Kenyon Green, it’s definitely possible that the OL sees more success this year. It simply remains to be seen.
In any case, the real story of this team is DeMeco’s dogs on defense. Houston has emerged as one of the most dominant defensive teams in football thanks to an embarrassment of riches across the board. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter — who combined for 23 sacks last year — form the best pass-rushing duo in the league, Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o have proven themselves to be a solid linebacking couple while Derek Stingley Jr. has finally blossomed into a top-five corner in the NFL. And we can’t forget about guys like Jalen Pitre, Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock, who have made this secondary a truly vaunted one.
Just to run through the numbers real quick: in 2024, Houston’s defense was fifth in total yards, sixth in EPA/play, fourth in success rate, first in pass rush win rate and second in run stop win rate. That’s just absurd.
If the offense can make up for last year’s shortcomings and catch up even slightly to the defense, Houston will not only win the AFC South again, but they could contend for a conference title. Winning Wild Card games in back-to-back years is great, but we all know that with this quarterback and with this team full of difference-makers on rookie deals, the window is only open for so long to make a Super Bowl. If any core is going to take the Texans to their first conference championship game, it’s this one.
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
We all know how good CJ Stroud is. Even after last year’s “sophomore slump,” no one doubts his talent. But talent can only lead to production if it’s allowed to. Behind last year’s Texans offensive line, it wasn’t. This year has to be different. Even if this line is a middle-of-the-pack one, it’ll be good enough to let CJ and company do their thing. If it’s a redux of last year, then the ceiling remains as relatively low as it is. And with the rest of the division getting better, the Texans can’t afford to fall behind. In any case, you just don’t want your future-highest-paid-player-in-the-league franchise QB to get sacked 54 times in a season anyways. They need to be better, and if they are, it’ll pay so, so many dividends.
Team MVP: QB CJ Stroud
I honestly wanted to put Nico Collins or Derek Stingley Jr. here, but CJ is my favorite non-Washington player in the league, so it only felt right to give him the nod. Regardless, I think he’s due for a massive bounce-back 2025. The talent and infrastructure around him is better — especially new OC Nick Caley, who should open up the passing game more. And Stroud himself is a dog: one of the league’s best pocket passers with an innate feel for the game and underrated mobility who can make any and every throw on the field. CJ’s ceiling this season is an MVP. If the circumstances around him hold up and he lives up to his enormous potential, I can totally see that happening. And I would love to watch it.
Breakout Candidate: WR Jayden Higgins
I’m not overly fond of putting rookies as breakout candidates, because technically any rookie success story is a breakout, but this one feels different. Higgins is in a position where he could genuinely explode onto the scene and immediately become one of the league’s top WR2s. With Nico Collins demanding so much attention, this kid is going to get a ton of targets. The former Cyclone star is an athletic freak with ridiculous speed for someone at 6-foo4-4 and 217 pounds and a catch radius that pops off the screen. He’s big and strong with soft hands, and he’s a menace after the catch. People are going to learn his name very quickly. The same could be said about fellow rookies Jaylin Noel and Woody Marks, but Higgins is the one I have the highest hopes for.
Record Prediction: 10-7
A third straight 10-7 season would not surprise me at all for a number of reasons. One, like I said earlier, the rest of the division is getting better, and although I didn’t give any of the other three teams more than five wins, I think the divisional games will be split across the board. Two, Houston still has to play a first place schedule — that means the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are back on the docket. Three, they have to play the rest of the AFC West, which could easily be three more losses. And lastly, two of their NFC opponents are the 49ers and Buccaneers. So, it ain’t exactly easy sledding this season. But, with their overwhelming talent and defensive prowess, a division title is almost a certainty. I just want to see more than that. A Texans Super Bowl run would be very, very pleasing.
Next up: 
Los Angeles Rams
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