Cover photo taken from News Herald.
Welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days, a daily series leading up to kickoff of the 2025 NFL season where I preview every team in the league as decided by a wheel spin and project what their season will look like. You can keep up with everything right here.
The wheel insists on keeping us in the AFC South with this trip taking us to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars are beginning a new era with a shiny new HC and GM, but still facing an uphill climb with some questions to be answered.
Something in the universe changed when the Jaguars got to 8-3 way back in 2023 and were in control of the 1-seed in the AFC. Jacksonville is 5-18 since then, highlighted by a 1-5 finish to that season and a 4-13 campaign last year. Losing QB Trevor Lawrence twice — first due to a shoulder injury, then to a gnarly concussion after a massive hit from Houston’s Azeez Al-Shaair — certainly didn’t help. But the Jags were already doomed well before that with a 2-7 start to the year.
Even without Lawrence, the offense stayed afloat, clocking in at 19th in EPA/play despite Mac Jones being at the helm. It certainly helps when you have a WR1 like Brian Thomas Jr. — more on him later. It was the defense that unraveled completely, finishing second-to-last in EPA/play and dead last in dropback EPA, letting quarterback after quarterback rip them to shreds.
Once primed to lead a new AFC contender, HC Doug Pederson was canned as soon as the season was over, leading to one of the strangest hiring cycles I can remember. Former Buccaneers OC Liam Coen seemed to be the favorite to land the gig, but shockingly backed out of a second interview with Jacksonville to stay in Tampa, seemingly due to friction with GM Trent Baalke. So, plenty late into the offseason, the Jags fired Baalke as well — a move made several years too late, if you ask me — re-opening the door for Coen, who wound up snaking the Bucs and taking the job. Talk about a carousel.
Still, the Jags needed a general manager; in fact, by the time the Super Bowl ended, they still didn’t have one. Enter James Gladstone, who had spent the previous nine seasons with the Rams under Les Snead, primarily in scouting. At 34, he’s now the youngest GM in the league, inheriting a roster that’s kind of a jumbled mess, but has its bright spots.
For all his faults, Lawrence remains under center in Jacksonville, continuing to rake in a contract he got perhaps a little too early. He’s proven himself to be solid, but straight up bad more often than he is great. That’s not a recipe for success to remain a long-term starter in this league. He just hasn’t lived up to his 2022 success since that season ended, finishing 21st in EPA+CPOE and 29th in completion percentage a year ago. That’s not good enough to make up for the rest of this offense’s shortcomings.
I do think that side of the ball got better this offseason, though. Thomas Jr. is obviously a gem, coming off a ridiculous rookie season. Gladstone’s first major move as GM was to trade up from No. 5 to No. 2 for the unicorn Heisman-winning WR/DB Travis Hunter, giving up a first-rounder in the process (not a fan of that one). I expected Hunter to play more corner than receiver, but it appears Jacksonville will do the opposite; regardless, he’s a stud with the athleticism and playmaking ability to provide plenty of juice to either side of the ball. And I’ll get this out of the way: he’s obviously not playing both sides remotely close to full-time.
Dyami Brown could be a solid WR2/3 after ending his tenure in Washington with a strong playoff run. Running back is a big question mark with Travis Etienne coming off a horrible 2024, potentially opening the door for second-year back Tank Bigsby or rookie Bhayshul Tuten. And the offensive line, which finished 19th in pass block win rate last year, has a couple new additions on the interior. There’s seemingly enough for Coen and new OC Grant Udinski to play with.
The defense remains a giant problem, though. The front seven was a massive disappointment a year ago, finishing dead last in pass rush win rate and 27th in run stop win rate despite having some solid talent. Former No. 1 pick Travon Walker has back-to-back double-digit sack seasons, Josh Hines-Allen has been pretty good for a number of years and Foye Oluokun and Devin Lloyd form one of the better on-ball linebacker duos in football. Maybe new DC Anthony Campanile can figure out what to do with that talent. In any case, the secondary will likely continue to be a giant weakness, seeing as it didn’t get better at all this offseason. I hate to break it to you Jacksonville, but Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray aren’t going to solve your problems, especially if Travis Hunter is going to be a backup defender. That’s another reason why I think he should play more defense: the team needs it a hell of a lot more than they need a pass-catcher.
I think the Jags have made the right hires to kick off this new rebuild, but this thing will clearly take some time, especially without a first-round pick next year. They better hope Hunter turns into the stud he’s supposed to be. Regardless, this feels like a year to figure things out with a first-time head coach, general manager and coordinators. If all goes to plan, the Jaguars could be a surprising team with a must-see offense that makes a playoff push. But, I think it’s far more likely that we see a team that struggles to win games due to a lack of a clear offensive identity and a porous defense.
X-Factor: QB Trevor Lawrence
2025 is TLaw’s last straw. The Jags are in a position where they can’t really do anything with him due to his contract, but it’s a put up or shut up type of year for Lawrence, who hasn’t shown us anything close to his ceiling in over two years. In his last 25-or-so games, he’s been genuinely bad. People will blame Doug Pederson, but having a bad playcaller doesn’t make you a bad quarterback. The best can overcome that. So, with a seemingly great playcaller, a bonafide star WR1 and a potentially electrifying WR2, are we finally going to see the generational QB we were promised five years ago? I have my doubts. But if we do, this team’s ceiling rises exponentially.
Team MVP: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
I’ve only dropped some BTJ bread crumbs until now, but what else do you want me to say about the kid? He’s already a ridiculous receiver who took the league by storm in his first season despite being overshadowed by the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in the draft process. A whopping 87 catches, 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in his first year dropped jaws across the league as Thomas Jr. utilized his unique blend of size and speed to become one of the league’s most daunting matchup nightmares out wide. And that was with Lawrence and Macaroni! Imagine what truly good quarterback play will do for his game. In any case, he’ll continue to be the star of the show in Jacksonville, and I expect another massive season out of him in year two.
Breakout Candidate: EDGE Travon Walker
As I mentioned earlier, Walker does have back-to-back seasons with 10-plus sacks. But, those figures are 10 in 2023 and 10.5 in 2024. It’s time to take the big boy jump. Walker needs to prove to us why the Jags spent the top overall pick on him in 2022. I understand that he’s very good in run defense, but that’s not necessarily what he was drafted to do. Jacksonville took him over Aidan Hutchinson for a reason. I think Walker has the skills to get to 15-plus sacks, it’s just a matter of putting it all together. We’ll see if this is the year.
Record Prediction: 4-13
The front half of this schedule is absurd with games against Cincinnati, Kansas City, San Francisco, Seattle and the Rams all before the Jaguars’ bye week. An 0-7 or worse start is genuinely on the table. While I don’t think that’s going to happen, I still think it’ll be slow off the blocks. And though the back half is a lot softer, I just struggle to find wins on this schedule for Jacksonville. I simply don’t know what kind of team we’re going to see out there under Liam Coen. The potential is high, but I need to see it to believe it.
Oh, and one last thing. At this point, I’m convinced the wheel is sentient, because…
Next up: 
Houston Texans
Raza Talks Sports 