Cover photo taken from NY Post.
Last Season: 176-99
Chiefs 24-17 Ravens 
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
There will be two important things to consider leading up to Thursday night’s opener.
First off is that the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. Their threepeat journey has to start somewhere. Sure, Rashee Rice has dealt with a world of trouble this offseason and Hollywood Brown won’t play. But that just means a lot of people are going to continue to learn the name Xavier Worthy. Not to mention there’s a certain Travis Kelce lining up out there as well. And let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter who’s catching the football as long as Patrick Mahomes is the one throwing it.
The second thing is that this is not the same Ravens team from a year ago. Several key defensive departures and the smokescreen of a signing of Derrick Henry lead me to believe that Baltimore is going to see a bit of a dropoff. Sure, Henry still has some gas in the tank, but he didn’t run for 100 or more yards against any playoff team on Tennessee’s schedule last year. And we’re about to see firsthand the impact of losing Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and several others.
Lamar Jackson will keep any game close to be sure, but I think Kansas City should feel comfortable from start to finish, dictating the game on both sides of the ball.
Packers 27-20 Eagles 
Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock
Samba de Janeiro starts playing
The NFL’s first game in Brazil should be a fun one. The media darling Packers — who enter the season with Super Bowl-level expectations — taking on the butt of last year’s jokes in the Eagles, who should be improved this season.
Both of these teams are good with seemingly less holes than they had a year ago. The Eagles shored up their secondary — at least on paper — as did the Packers, who also look elite offensively. So, it seems that not much separates these teams at a glance.
But I’m not picking a team led by Nick Sirianni to win a game like this. Philadelphia is a team I have less and less faith in by the week, and while they match up well here, I’m not going to pick them until they show me that I should.
Falcons 20-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
I officially dub this the “Quarterbacks Drafted Later Than They Would’ve Liked In 2012 To Be Backups But Ended Up Being Great For That Team Then Had Rather Uneventful Stints On Their Second Team Before Finding Themselves On A Third Team Being One Bad Game Away From Being A Celtics Shaq-Type Meme” Bowl.
I feel like I know what to expect from Kirk Cousins — despite this being his first game in almost a full year after recovering from an Achilles tear — while I have no idea what to expect from Russell Wilson. Moreover, I know that Atlanta will be improved on both sides of the ball with their plethora of offseason acquisitions, while Pittsburgh just strikes me as the same old mid team they’ve been for years now.
It’ll be close, and it’ll probably be ugly. But give me the home team with the better offense to pull it out when it matters late.
Bills 30-17 Cardinals 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Sure, the Cardinals could be frisky this year. But not in this game.
The Bills are far too sound on both sides of the ball and should be one of the most fun teams to watch this season. Arizona will have their time to shine, but this long road trip against a formidable opponent will be a tough one.
That being said, I will be there no matter what for Marvin Harrison Jr.’s professional debut. His Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign has to start somewhere, right?
Bears 24-13 Titans 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Welcome to the Caleb Williams show. Let’s have some fun, shall we?
Tennessee is a team that could contend for the top pick in the draft next April. Chicago is a team with arguably the single most-improved roster in football and the next great talent under center. This game should not be close.
Bengals 28-10 Patriots 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
See: above.
New England is a mess right now. Nothing about that roster or coaching staff really gives me hope. And while Cincinnati has dealt with some drama this offseason with the Ja’Marr Chase holdout in addition to some uncertainty about Joe Burrow in his first game back, this realistically shouldn’t be too big of a challenge for them.
Colts 23-20 Texans 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans are unquestionably the biggest media darling in the AFC, and for good reason. They have a bonafide top 5 star QB in C.J. Stroud to lead a supremely talented offense to complement an elite, young defense. And, they’re led by one of the most promising young head coaches in football in DeMeco Ryans.
But the Colts have a good young team too. And this Colts team beat Houston last year when Anthony Richardson was healthy — and nearly did when he wasn’t. Who’s to say it won’t happen again?
Divisional teams know each other extremely well. Shane Steichen knows what Ryans and Bobby Slowik want to do. At home, with Richardson back and a whole host of offensive talent, I like Indy’s chances to pull a mini-upset of sorts. At the very least, I think they’re being overlooked. If nobody else wants to give them some love, I’ll be the one to do it.
Dolphins 28-20 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
You like offense? Come on down to South Florida. The sun is beaming, the weather is warm, the ghastly cold isn’t anywhere close yet, so the ball will be flying around and the points will be added to the scoreboard with swiftness.
Until our clocks fall back an hour in two months, I feel good about Miami’s chances to win most football games. Anyone should; it’s a remarkably talented team with arguably the league’s best offense.
But I won’t fall for the same fugazi as everyone did last year. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there; I just wanted to get it out of the way early.
Saints 20-13 Panthers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
You like offense? Don’t come anywhere near New Orleans on Sunday.
I have zero faith in either of these teams to accomplish anything this year, or even anywhere in the near future. Both franchises are doomed in my estimation, largely due to stubborn and/or incompetent management that has failed to build a good roster.
Sure, the Saints are fine on paper from top to bottom, but they’re still trotting Derek Carr out there. (Side note: what’s the over/under on weeks until Spencer Rattler is starting? 4.5? Lower?) And the Panthers… the Panthers are just sad.
To make a not-so-long story short, the better of two bad teams will win a bad football game that nobody wants to watch.
Giants 21-20 Vikings 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
See: above.
The Vikings, at least, have some reasons to watch them. The biggest one wears No. 18.
The Giants on the other hand, don’t.
But! Something compels me to switch things up a bit here. Nobody expects the Giants to win. Nobody wants to even look at their 100th anniversary throwbacks (which aren’t nearly as bad as everyone thinks). Nobody wants to watch Daniel Jones play quarterback (okay, fair).
I just think Minnesota is going to be worse than people realize. This isn’t the year Sam Darnold is going to magically figure things out. It’s a talented offense, but that’s about it. I can see New York’s defense making some plays here and there to help pull out a bit of a surprise win to open the season. And Giants fans should enjoy it, because there won’t be many more afterwards.
Chargers 17-14 Raiders 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Everyone seems to be under the impression that the Chargers will magically turn into a playoff team under Jim Harbaugh. I’m here to tell you that will not be the case. The roster simply has too many holes right now, though I believe Harbaugh will turn them into a contender within the next few years.
That being said, Los Angeles is a better team with far better coaching than Las Vegas. I can respect this game being close with it being in the division — and it being low-scoring with both offenses being subpar — but I feel confident in the Chargers pulling this one out.
Broncos 24-23 Seahawks 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Another upset! Why not? I’m feeling generous.
Moreover, I know what the Broncos are going to look like. Spoiler alert: it’s a lot like Oregon last year (and apparently this year, for that matter). It’ll be a lot of dink and dunk — death by a thousand papercuts, if you will. And while that didn’t work for Russell Wilson, it’ll work perfectly for Bo Nix.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Broncos will be very good this year. But I don’t have very high hopes for Seattle, either. Neither team stands out to me much, so I’m just going to roll the dice with another overlooked underdog led by a rookie QB who has experienced a multitude of environments like the one he’s walking into on Sunday.
Cowboys 23-17 Browns 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
I’m very compelled to pick the Browns in most games, considering their elite roster and game-changing defense.
But, when your quarterback is Deshaun Watson, it becomes difficult to pick you to win games.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have a great roster of their own with a quarterback I trust a lot more (in this spot, at least). Even in a tough road environment against a challenging defense, I’m far more compelled to take Dallas in this game. It wouldn’t shock me to see it go the other way, but I just don’t feel comfortable putting my eggs in that basket.
Commanders 23-20 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
To heck with it.
This game gives me the same vibes as the 2012 opener. On the road against a solid NFC South team for the first start for the Heisman-winning No. 2 pick in the draft — a game that looks like a loss on paper, but could wind up being quite the win.
My trend of the week is clearly overlooked underdogs, and I don’t feel crazy saying that we’re one of them. I don’t think Tampa Bay is all that; sure they were fine last year and retained much of the roster, but I don’t have the highest hopes for any team led by Baker Mayfield, although Washington’s defense doesn’t pose much of a threat.
At the end of the day, I don’t see any reason why Jayden Daniels shouldn’t go out there and have a good game en route to a win. The book isn’t necessarily out on him yet just from LSU tape, and I think his effectiveness as a runner could help put Washington over the top for an opening-week win.
Lions 27-24 Rams 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The schedule-makers cooked this one. This playoff game was amazing last year, and the storylines continue to be juicy. Now, both teams are back and better and should deliver us another great one.
On paper, I feel like there’s not much that separates these squads. Neither roster really has any holes, and as we saw in January, they match up quite well with one another. I default to the Lions because of that game, and the homefield advantage, but I wrestled with this one. It could clearly go either way, but I’m not stressing about it too much. It’s just Week 1, after all.
More than anything, I’m looking forward to a banger to kick off Sunday Night Football in 2024.
49ers 27-14 Jets 
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is kind of the antithesis of SNF. Both teams that appear good on paper, but only one of them is. Spoiler alert: it’s the one that was one play away from winning the Super Bowl last season.
The Jets weren’t gonna be good last year even if Aaron Rodgers was healthy. And even if he plays this whole year, they still won’t be very good. It’s a roster with no shortage of question marks led by a coach I have concerns about and a 40-year old quarterback who has made infinitely more headlines for off-the-field shenanigans than on-the-field success in the last several years.
The 49ers, on the other hand, are still the class of the NFC and will find themselves back in the Super Bowl in a few months’ time. They’re significantly better than the Jets with a vastly better coaching staff, and it will show on Monday night in the Bay.
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