Cover photo taken from ESPN.
Last Week: 9-6
Season Total: 52-41
Jaguars 22-17 Saints 
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
With the Saints being at home for a primetime matchup, I’d have to imagine this game being close. That defense is going to do its thing for the large majority of the night, but I worry about New Orleans’ offense being able to keep up with Jacksonville’s.
Considering how well both the passing and running games are looking for the Jags, I think they’re just going to chip away as the game goes on and simply outlast the Saints on both sides of the ball. But, if New Orleans’ vaunted secondary makes a play or two, they could easily pull off this upset.
Bears 19-16 Raiders 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
This game was bad enough on paper before quarterback injuries entered the equation. Now, it’ll be Tyson Bagent vs. Aidan O’Connell.
I don’t even want to think about this game, and there’s no chance anyone actually wants to watch it. I’m going to pick the Raiders because they’re the better team, but part of me feels like the Bears pull this one out at home. I can’t explain it, and I sure as hell can’t back it up given the current situation with these rosters. It’s just a feeling.
Browns 17-10 Colts 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is another backup quarterback showdown, but the difference between this game and the one above it is that it features two actually solid rosters, including one which boasts the NFL’s best defense. And Cleveland should be able to ride it all day long once again.
Regardless of who suits up at quarterback for them, Gardner Minshew’s life will be hell on the other side, and that’ll be enough to notch another Browns win.
Bills 26-13 Patriots 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
I’m being a bit nice here. Divisional games like these usually tend to be a bit close. But this one has no business even being within two possessions.
Buffalo, for all their faults, is still a pretty good football team. The Patriots are anything but. Even in Foxboro, this one could get very, very ugly.
Giants 20-17 Commanders 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
That’s right. I think we’ll lose to the Giants, a team that I’ve been absolutely eviscerating all season long which has shown virtually no signs of life this year. There are a couple reasons why.
First of all, Ron Rivera has always struggled with New York for some reason, with just one single win in six matchups — which came on a missed field goal re-try in a game that we realistically should have lost. The Giants are also coming off a game that they should have won on Sunday night and may have found new life. Tyrod Taylor is probably once again going to be suiting up under center, but that doesn’t seem to hinder this team at all. They actually looked better with him than they did with Daniel Jones. And if Jones does start, then this is virtually a guaranteed loss for us, since he turns into Steve Young every time Washington is on the schedule for some reason.
But the most obvious reason for us losing this game is the fact that everyone expects us to win. We’re coming off a nice victory in Atlanta, the fanbase feels good about themselves for some reason, and by all accounts, we should win this game. Which means that we won’t. It’ll be a complete dude and yet another chapter of embarrassment in a long, long book of blunders.
Buccaneers 23-17 Falcons 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
It may be early, but this feels like a fairly pivotal NFC South matchup. The Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons are all jockeying for breathing room atop this division. The Bucs already proved their ability to go on the road and pick up a huge divisional win when they trounced the Saints in their own building. Now, they get a worse team in Atlanta in the friendly confines of Raymond James. Feels pretty straightforward.
Combine that with the fact that the Falcons are reeling and the Bucs are looking to bounce back from Sunday’s embarrassment in the Creamsicles and you’ve got what I believe is a pretty easy pick.
Lions 20-17 Ravens 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Dolphins-Eagles is going to steal all the headlines as the biggest game of the week, but this is by far my most anticipated game on this slate. The main reason for that is because this acts as a litmus test for both of these teams to see if they’re what we think they are.
I think both of these defenses, which rank towards the top of the league, are going to thrive in this game with neither offense being at full strength. With the offenses struggling, I think this game will be decided by whichever defense steps ups and makes more plays. Crazily enough, I think that’ll be Detroit’s unit. My main rationale for that is how elite they’ve been against the run thus far in 2023. The Lions give up the least rushing yards in the league, and Baltimore’s bread and butter is on the ground. Once that gets stifled, Lamar Jackson and company will have to win the game through the air. Sure, he’s capable of that, we haven’t really seen it other than the Browns game, where Cleveland was starting an incapable rookie quarterback which allowed the Ravens to win by scoring just 17 points. They won’t get away with that against a team as good as the Lions are.
Simply put, Baltimore throws for less than 200 yards per game. Against a defense that’s going to force them to throw, and an offense that can hurt you in all sorts of ways, I think the Lions emerge as the clearly better team in this matchup. They’re going to win this game and prove to everyone who may still be doubting them that they are bonafide contenders.
Rams 22-19 Steelers 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
This is yet another interesting NFC vs. AFC matchup that’ll probably get overshadowed by a few other games which admittedly look much better on paper. But I think this game still has the capacity to be pretty good.
Like I said with the above game, I feel like defense will be the name of the game in LA on Sunday. I think both offenses should have plenty of scoring opportunities, but this game has “redzone struggles” and “field goal-fest” written all over it. That makes this a difficult pick; the Rams clearly have the better offense, but the Steelers defense is legit, and their offense took some positive momentum into the bye.
However, I’m going to stick with the home team for a valid reason: Pittsburgh’s secondary is terrible. They had a nice bounce-back two weeks ago against the Ravens, but they are going to have their hands more than full against Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and the Rams pass-catchers. They might be able to get some stops to limit the damage, but I feel like they’ll eventually crack, allowing LA to come out with a very hard-fought win, although I could very well see their front seven doing enough to single-handedly win them the game yet again.
Seahawks 24-13 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
The simple result of a loss for Seattle last week has people forgetting how truly good this team is. I know I was harsh to them yesterday, but I gave very valid rationale for that. At the very least, they’re significantly better than the Cardinals, who are continuing to fall apart.
I know divisional games have a tendency to be close, but with this game being in Seattle, I don’t think it should be particularly close.
Packers 23-13 Broncos 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
As I said yesterday, the bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Packers, who had a week to regroup after the disaster against the Raiders before a cupcake matchup against the Broncos.
Regardless of whether or not Aaron Jones suits up for Green Bay, they should be a-okay in this one. Denver’s defense is one of the worst I’ve ever seen, and this feels like a perfect bounce-back spot for Jordan Love and those young receivers.
Chiefs 25-17 Chargers 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Patrick Mahomes against a divisional opponent with the worst pass defense in the NFL? Maybe I’m being generous saying this will be a one possession game. The Chargers don’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence with a banged up Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler leading the offense while the defense gets cut apart for sixty minutes. The Chiefs might be dealing with some struggles of their own, but I don’t see a world where they lose this game. They’re still putting the pieces together offensively, but their defense is nothing short of elite, and I think that will once again be the difference in their sixth consecutive win.
Dolphins 30-27 Eagles 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Game of the Year? Maybe. It certainly has all the makings of one. But, we also presumed that Cowboys-49ers would be GotY two weeks ago. So no more assumptions.
I do think that, with the sheer offensive talent with both of these teams, this should be a very entertaining game. With how even these rosters match up with one another in addition to my continued placement of the Eagles above the Dolphins, I’m actually pretty surprised with myself, because I’ve had no doubts in picking Miami to win this game all week long.
My main reason for that confidence lies in the fact that Philadelphia’s secondary — which was already dealing with a plethora of struggles — is now as thin as it has been all year long. Now, that skeleton crew has to deal with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and all of the motions and crazy concepts that the Dolphins pose. That doesn’t feel like it’s going to end well.
Yes, the Birds offense is great and due for a return to form after last week’s debacle against the Jets, but I don’t know if they have what it takes to keep up with Miami’s explosiveness. The Eagles have a very methodical offensive approach, which certainly works. But it just feels like they’re going to be out there so much on Sunday night. Yes, the Eagles are dominant up front, and Raheem Mostert will likely have a tough time moving the ball on the ground. But I think that if the Dolphins can keep Tua upright, he’ll do enough to lead his team to a huge victory.
49ers 24-10 Vikings 
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
I’d like to think this game will be close. But the Vikings have virtually nothing to work with offensively, and their defense is not nearly good enough to make up for that.
The 49ers are still the NFL’s best team despite their struggles in their loss last week, and they’re going to rebound from that loss in a big way here. The offense will look like its usual self — although Christian McCaffrey’s oblique injury could limit them a bit — and the defense should suffocate a lackluster offense all night long. Considering they’re going up against Kirk Cousins on Monday Night Football, I think 3 or 4 interceptions is certainly on the table.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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