Cover photo taken from NFL.com.
Last Week: 9-7
Season Total: 37-27
Commanders 23-10 Bears 
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
If we lose this game, you will never hear from me ever again.
Unlike Sundays and Mondays, Thursday nighters usually treat us well, including last year’s win in Chicago. I genuinely don’t see a world in which we lose this game, but I don’t want to put anything past this team, which finds a way to let me down even in the safest of circumstances.
As long as the defense doesn’t let Justin Fields hurt them with his legs — and finally decides to give up less than 30 points — and the offense puts up a respectable number of points, victory should be in the bag to get back above .500. And if that doesn’t happen, then there will be a lot of questions to answer across the board.
Bills 26-20 Jaguars 
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Jaguars are playing their second consecutive game in London, and while some might think that gives them the upper hand, I personally don’t think it matters. I’ve always talked about how hard it is for west coast teams to come out east and vice versa, but I don’t think that argument holds much weight anymore. NFL teams simply know how to travel and still execute at the highest level. A team like the Bills will be just fine, even with the trip across the pond.
They’re also just a much better team than Jacksonville is right now, playing at a much higher level on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen has been on fire and isn’t showing signs of slowing down, and although the defense just lost Tre White for the season, they might be getting Von Miller back in this one. That’s a horrifying prospect for any opposing offense.
Texans 23-16 Falcons 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Not many teams are trending upwards as much as the Texans right now. Not many teams are trending downwards as much as the Falcons right now. That scares me a bit, especially with this game being in Atlanta, but I see no reason to get off the Houston train.
Until I see C.J. Stroud slow down, which he hasn’t done in any capacity a month into his career, I’m not going to bet against him. I think the Falcons are due for a bounce-back performance, but it’s hard to put any faith in them, especially with Desmond Ridder looking as terrible as he has in recent weeks. I’m going to stick with the trends on this one.
Lions 30-14 Panthers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
I’m always wary of picking blowouts when a great team is playing an awful team. But I feel strangely confident about this one. The Lions are terrific at home, and the Panthers have been dreadful all year long.
The margin of victory might not end up being this big, but I refuse to see a scenario where Carolina winds up winning this game. They’d need their best performance of the year on both sides of the ball, which doesn’t seem feasible against a Detroit team that looks like one of the most complete squads in the NFL.
Colts 23-20 Titans 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Like it seemingly always is, this matchup is a complete coinflip. I have no idea what to expect from either of these teams on any given week, especially the Titans. In fact, the reason I’m picking them to lose is because this season has gone loss-win-loss-win. The trends point towards an L.
Moreover, Indianapolis continues to flash with Anthony Richardson, and they might just be getting Jonathan Taylor back on Sunday. Considering Zack Moss got to cooking behind this offensive line and Richardson poses a rushing threat, I think the re-addition of JT could make this a truly lethal offense. Tennessee’s defense is great, but I think this is a bad matchup for them, and I don’t think their offense can keep up with Indy’s especially if Taylor plays.
Dolphins 34-13 Giants 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Remember what I said about the Lions and Panthers? That doesn’t apply here.
It won’t be 70-20 again, but it’s going to be ugly. And it’s going to be glorious.
Patriots 19-16 Saints 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Whatever the exact opposite of a “feast for the eyes” is can be used to describe this game to a T.
These are two terrible offenses being held back by awful quarterback play, but both defenses are good enough to keep this one close throughout. I wouldn’t even be surprised if this game was decided by a defensive or special teams play. Both defenses had uncharacteristically terrible performances a week ago, so both should be in for a return to form here. I think it truly just boils down to which one cracks more.
As bad as Mac Jones has been, at least he’s healthy. The same can’t be said about Derek Carr, who continues to dubiously play with a bum shoulder. For that reason, I’ll take the Patriots at home.
Ravens 20-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Ravens-Steelers is always a dogfight. This seems like it should be a Baltimore blowout on paper, but I don’t think Pittsburgh will go down easy, even with Kenny Pickett being on a bum knee.
The Ravens offense is infinitely better than the Steelers’ at this point, but this is the type of game that T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh’s defense rises to the occasion for. That’s enough to make me believe that this one will be close. But Baltimore’s own defense should absolutely dominate the beat-up Steelers, and Lamar Jackson should eventually do his thing on the other side of the ball to help the Ravens earn a hard-fought road win over their bitter rivals.
Rams 23-20 Eagles 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
I’m picking more upsets than usual this week, and I think this one is my absolute favorite. I don’t know why, it just feels like it makes sense.
The Eagles may be 4-0, but they haven’t taken the most impressive route to get there. They keep on bending but not breaking. I feel like a break is imminent. Why shouldn’t the Rams be the team to do it? Their offense keeps on clicking, and they might be getting Cooper Kupp back in this game. I don’t think people realize how big of a deal that is. Yes, Matt Stafford has been able to cook with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, but adding Kupp back to the lineup makes this offense one of the scariest in the league. Good luck to secondaries trying to stop both him and the potential OROY in Nacua.
If LA’s defense does just enough against Jalen Hurts and the Birds offense, I feel strangely comfortable with trusting Stafford and the Rams to do enough offensively to pull off this upset.
Cardinals 24-16 Bengals 
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
It’s truly sad that this is what it has come to for the Bengals. But I simply cannot pick them in confidence with their offense being as disastrous as it is and with Joe Burrow being as injured and ineffective as he has been.
However, I think this would have been a tough matchup for Cincinnati regardless. The Cardinals are much better than we anticipated and plenty competitive, especially at home. They have a tendency to ball out in front of their home crowd, and against a team that’s reeling as much as Cincy is, I don’t see why that trend shouldn’t continue.
I think Arizona’s defense is going to make things difficult for Burrow, as seemingly any defense can these days, and Josh Dobbs should lead the offense to enough scoring drives to be able to win this ballgame. Which is a sentence I could not fathom typing out a month ago.
Jets 13-10 Broncos 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
This is the type of game that I just pick and move forward. It is so ugly that I don’t even want to think about it, let alone talk about it. I’ll just take the more promising offense and better defense and leave it there.
Chiefs 31-17 Vikings 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Primetime Kirk Cousins gets all the hate, but I don’t think we highlight just how terrible Cousins performs in the 4 p.m. time slot, especially in a national television game like this one. Remember when they got the national CBS game last year? It was twice — a 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and a 41-17 loss to the Packers. I never feel comfortable picking blowouts, so I’ll give Minnesota the benefit of the doubt and say they keep it closer than that, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is a complete wash.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is probably itching to bounce back from a terrible performance last week in primetime against the Jets, and I think the defense sees food. Stopping Justin Jefferson is always a tough task, but in those two aforementioned games, his combined stat line was four catches for 48 yards. I’m simply riding the trends and predicting this to be another disaster for the Vikings.
49ers 24-17 Cowboys 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Here’s the big one: probably the biggest game of the young season. Usually games like this are a bit tough to pick, but I have no reservations here. The 49ers are much, much better than the Cowboys are, especially right now.
Yes, Dallas had a bounce-back defensive performance in their thrashing of the Patriots, but those were the Patriots. Their two other great defensive performances were against Daniel Jones’ Giants and Zach Wilson’s Jets. This is the first real test for the Cowboys defense, and I simply do not believe they are up for the task without Trevon Diggs in the lineup and with Micah Parsons dealing with a knee issue. San Francisco’s offense has put up 30 or more points in every game this season, while their own defense continues to dominate. Dallas’ offense has really not been much to write home about; honestly it feels like their defense is in the endzone more often.
I think this matchup plays directly into the hands of the Niners, as it seemingly does every year. San Francisco is simply Dallas’ kryptonite, and I don’t see that changing on Sunday night.
Packers 27-17 Raiders 
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both of these teams are coming off failed comeback attempts against their division rivals, but it’s much easier to feel good about one of these teams than the other. The Packers continue to flash their young talent on both sides of the ball while the Raiders… are playing football, I guess.
Here’s my take: if Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t suit up for Vegas and Aidan O’Connell once again gets the start, this game won’t even be worth watching. If Jimmy does play, then the Raiders should be competitive, but they should also still lose. I just think the Packers pose too much of a threat on both sides of the ball for Vegas to keep up with, and you already know that stadium is going to be littered with Green Bay fans on Monday night.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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