Cover photo taken from NFL.com.
Last Week: 10-6
Season Total: 28-20
Packers 23-20 Lions 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
The Lions are back on Thursday night for the second time in four weeks. Like last time, I don’t see them winning this one on the road. But they’re certainly capable of proving me wrong again.
I just think beating the Packers at home in a divisional primetime setting is always a tall task. It could get even harder if Green Bay gets Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back. But the Packers have proven that they can win even without those two offensive stars. Everyone else is pulling their weight, and the defense is playing great. This is certainly the best offense they’ve faced so far, but the Lions haven’t looked as explosive on that side of the ball as we expected. Unless they get a crazy performance out of Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown, they could see some more struggles.
I think the Packers will keep this one close, and their offense will do just enough to get them the victory.
Falcons 21-20 Jaguars 
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, ESPN+
This is a pretty solid game on paper, but considering both teams’ momentum coming into it, this could be an early-morning dud to kick off the 2023 International slate.
I like both of these teams, but neither of them are necessarily giving me much to like lately, with each team coming off what was likely their worst game of the year thus far. So this is a good opportunity to get back on track. It’s just really difficult to tell who is going to do that, and who is going to keep spiraling downwards.
I’m leaning with the Falcons because I believe their defense has been much better across the first few weeks of the year, and I typically know what I’m going to get out of their offense. Jacksonville’s defense has been very suspect and I never know which offense is going to show up for them. I think these even matchups typically favor the more consistent team, and to me, that’s the Falcons.
Bills 27-24 Dolphins 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
In a week littered with pretty terrible matchups, this stands out as the crystal clear best game of the week. How could it not? These are two of the best teams in the NFL, each coming off monster performances, and this is an early opportunity to establish dominance in the division and conference as a whole.
It felt really easy to lean Miami after their record-setting performance a week ago, but I’m going to take the home team here. Buffalo’s defense has been playing like one of the best in the league all season long, albeit against two subpar offenses with horrible offensive lines and one team led by Zach Wilson. But more importantly, Josh Allen is playing lights out after a very poor opening game. I think Buffalo’s offense has what it takes to keep up with Miami’s offense, but it’s going to be tough. The defense will really need to show up if they want to slow down Tua and company, who have barely shown any signs of slowing down this year. But the times they did were on the road in a divisional matchup against New England. Why can’t the Bills do the same at home? I think they’ll make just enough defensive plays to let Josh and the offense win the game in the end.
Bears 20-17 Broncos 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Here it is. An incredibly rare matchup between the two worst teams in the NFL that is bound to be one of the worst things you’ve ever seen. The Caleb Williams Bowl, if you will.
God bless anyone who willingly watches this game.
Browns 17-13 Ravens 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
In an AFC North slugfest featuring two of the best defenses in the NFL with two beat-up offenses, who do you take? The better defense? The home team? How about all of the above.
The Browns seem to be figuring things out with their league-leading defense and steady improvements from Deshaun Watson. Baltimore will be their toughest test yet, especially defensively, but I don’t see why they can’t keep it going. Cleveland has won this matchup in back-to-back years when they’re at home. I say they make it a threepeat.
Bengals 19-16 Titans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Like the game above, this figures to be a defensive slog from start to finish. It helps that the Titans offense — which is only above the Jets in total yards — might as well not exist at this point. The same can arguably be said about Cincinnati while Joe Burrow remains dinged up.
While Tennessee’s defense is coming off a disasterclass against Cleveland, the Bengals defense just played one of its best games in recent memory, exploiting a terrible offensive line and a distinct lack of weapons on the opposing offense. I say they’ll do the exact same thing on Sunday, and even win by the exact same score.
Colts 23-17 Rams 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I wasn’t sure which way to lean here, considering both of these teams have shown me plenty to like and plenty to dislike through three games. But I’ve honestly liked what I’ve seen from the Colts a lot more. They’ve flashed on both sides of the ball, regardless of who starts at quarterback. They should be getting Anthony Richardson back in this game, which will provide the offense with a big lift against a stout LA defense. The Rams obviously have the offensive ability to throw the ball all over a bottom-tier Colts secondary, but my gut is just telling me that they’re going to struggle once again.
We just saw Indy go on the road and beat the Ravens. I think they’re more than capable of coming back home and beating a much worse Rams team.
Saints 22-19 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is tricky. Saints-Bucs always feels like a coinflip, and with Jameis Winston starting under center for New Orleans, it’s even harder to see how this is going to play out.
I wanted to pick Tampa considering the fact that they just got shellacked on national television and will probably want to prove themselves again. But they’ve always had trouble winning this game at the Superdome — they’ve only done so once since 2018, which was last season. And Tom Brady is not walking through that door.
I think Baker Mayfield is going to struggle mightily against the Saints defense — which will continue its incredible streak of holding opponents to under 20 points — while Jameis and NOLA’s offense does its job and puts up enough points with Alvin Kamara back in the lineup to beat their rivals for the first time since 2021.
Eagles 31-17 Commanders 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Birds should absolutely decimate us in the trenches from start to finish in this one. I don’t see a world where the game is remotely close for that reason. I’d be shocked if it ever feels like a contest.
I am not going to have fun. That’s a guarantee.
Vikings 30-20 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Our second 0-3 matchup of the slate figures to be a lot more straightforward.
The Vikings have a fantastic offense and the Panthers have a defense that just got sliced and diced by Seattle. I think Minnesota has the playmaking ability to replicate that performance. I certainly don’t trust their defense, but I don’t think I really need to when they’re going up against a Carolina offense that hasn’t shown signs of life in any game this season. Yes, they accrued some nice stats last week, but they were never truly in that game. I feel like this is going to go in a very similar direction, regardless of who starts under center.
Texans 24-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Why not a cheeky upset pick?
I love everything the Texans are doing right now, especially offensively as C.J. Stroud continues to look like anything but a rookie and light up opposing secondaries. Why shouldn’t I believe that he won’t decimate a Steelers pass defense that’s bottom-12 in the league? I understand it might be a bit more of a struggle as Pittsburgh’s defense as a whole has been dominant this year, but I just saw Jimmy Garoppolo dice them up. I think C.J. can follow suit.
It’s also easy to pick against the Steelers when their offense refuses to show me anything to like. I know the Texans defense isn’t great, but I don’t think they’ll have to be to limit the scoring. And that’ll let the offense do their thing to the tune of another upset victory.
Chargers 28-20 Raiders 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
Regardless of circumstance, we can always count on Chargers-Raiders to be an entertaining contest. There should be plenty of points on the scoreboard and in fantasy leagues on Sunday afternoon.
No matter what, the Chargers have no excuse to lose this game. They finally notched their first win and now likely get Austin Ekeler back in addition to coming back home to play a rather awful Raiders team. It won’t be a blowout by any means, and LA’s defense is bound to struggle against an admittedly elite Las Vegas passing attack, but Justin Herbert and company will do more than enough to win comfortably.
Cowboys 23-17 Patriots 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
I don’t know what to expect out of the Dallas defense after last week’s catastrophe, but I have to imagine they’ll put together a better performance. They’ve had a full week of practice with their new-look defense without Trevon Diggs, and they’re playing an arguably worse offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys offense struggles again, especially in the redzone, especially against a very tough Patriots defense.
This just figures to be a close, defensive game which is won by the better offense in the clutch. That’s very clearly the Cowboys.
49ers 27-17 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
The Cardinals have been frisky all year long, so I think they can certainly hang around for a while in this game. But nobody can really stick with the 49ers for a full 60 minutes. They have been the most dominant team in the league by a wide margin, and I don’t think a team like Arizona is going to slow them down, especially in a tough road environment with the Niners coming off a mini-bye.
When it’s all said and done, San Francisco should cruise to a 4-0 start.
Chiefs 28-10 Jets 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
You’ve got to feel bad for Taylor Swift. For her first two NFL games, she’s had to watch the Bears and now the Jets. At least she gets to watch the Chiefs completely decimate both teams.
Like last week, this one should be over before halftime.
Seahawks 24-16 Giants 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
It’s not anyone’s fault, but we have to do something about all these terrible primetime matchups. It’s getting annoying. Whose idea was it for the Giants to play three of their first four games in primetime? Jeez.
Anyways, the Seahawks should win this one comfortably. New York hasn’t shown any signs of life other than their second half against Arizona, and against a solid Seattle defense, I don’t think they will on Monday night. I don’t think it’ll be as ugly as their first two standalone games, but it doesn’t figure to be pretty either.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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