Cover photo taken from NBC Los Angeles.
2022 Season Total: 181-100-2
Chiefs 34-20 Lions 
Thursday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Please allow me to present you with some numbers.
Patrick Mahomes has never lost (5-0) in Week 1. Here are his stats in those five games: 1,542 yards, 18 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 136.9 passer rating. Seems pretty good. Considering he’s going up against last year’s third-worst passing defense, I think he will once again feast en route to a victory.
I will admit that the uncertainty around Travis Kelce’s availability in this game is a bit concerning after he hyperextended his knee in practice on Tuesday. As much as I’d like say “it doesn’t matter, it’s Mahomes,” it definitely matters. But even if Kelce misses this game, I’m not picking against #15.
I’m on the record as not being as high on the Lions as most others, but I’m definitely excited to see what they can do in this game. I think their offense will cook for a little bit, and I can’t wait to see what the rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta have, but I don’t think they have what it takes to keep up with the Chiefs, especially with Detroit’s own defense bound to get gashed all night long.
At the very least, this should be an entertaining opener. But there’s zero doubt whatsoever about the outcome here.
Falcons 23-20 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is the first installment of the NFC South’s imminent Battles of Mid in 2023, but we have plenty of reasons to tune in to this game — namely the rookie debuts of Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson and Carolina’s Bryce Young. I think both of them will put up solid performances, but this game really boils down to everyone else.
Is Atlanta’s offense going to look as good as we think it can? Is Carolina’s offensive line going to hold up? Will the Falcons secondary perform like the improved unit it is on paper? Will the Panthers pass rush make life hell for Desmond Ridder? Will the Falcons be able to run the ball on a stout Panthers front? Will we get something nearly as entertaining as these teams’ 2022 Week 8 matchup?
The answer to all of those questions is simply, I don’t know. This game could go any which way. I’m giving the edge to the Falcons because I am a bigger fan of their roster from top to bottom, even if they’re worse at the QB position. But it wouldn’t shock me at all if Bryce Young wills his team to victory in his debut.
Bengals 24-21 Browns 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
I was this close to picking the Browns to win this game, but I just couldn’t do it. My main reason for picking them in the first place was that Joe Burrow has never won a game in Cleveland (0-3) and I’m not sure what he’ll look like coming off his preseason calf injury.
But at this point, I know better than to doubt the Bengals. They’re so much better than the Browns, and even in a tough divisional game, they really have no excuse to not win. I thought back to how Cleveland looked significantly better than Cincinnati in that Monday nighter last year, but then I remembered that Ja’Marr Chase didn’t play in that game, and I’m assuaged of any notion that the Bengals will lose once again.
I do think it’ll be close from start to finish, and I recognize that Browns +2.5 is one of the most tempting bets of the week. But in the end, one of these teams is simply better than the other. So I’ll roll with them.
Jaguars 27-16 Colts 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Jaguars are one of the best teams in the AFC. The Colts are one of the worst teams in the AFC.
This one is pretty simple.
I will say that I’m excited to see what Anthony Richardson can do in his debut for Indy, but I also recognize that he’ll be without his star RB in Jonathan Taylor and will likely struggle against a very solid defense. So I’m not going to get my hopes up too high for him. I’m much more excited to see how Jacksonville’s offense looks — especially the new Trevor Lawrence to Calvin Ridley connection. We might see a lot of fireworks from the Jags in this game, and they should win very comfortably.
Vikings 26-23 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
It doesn’t really feel like it on the surface, but this game feels sneaky good, mainly because I feel like we’re going to see a lot of offense. Neither of these defenses are good, and while the Vikings offense is significantly better than Tampa’s, Minnesota’s defense is bad enough to make any offense look elite. So don’t be surprised if Baker Mayfield and the Bucs come out and look actually competent. But please don’t expect that to be the norm.
I’m still going to take the Vikings to win this game because their offense is simply going to be too much down the stretch. Also, those throwbacks are too nice to lose in. Seeing Justin Jefferson make plays in the uniform that Randy Moss and Cris Carter wore is going to be awesome.
Saints 19-16 Titans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Well, this is boring.
The only enticing aspect of this game is seeing how the Saints look with Derek Carr starting his first game under center. There’s a chance he lights it up, slinging it left and right to Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.
But I think he most likely outcome of this game is a slugfest where both teams try desperately to run the ball but can’t get it going. So, it’ll come down to whoever has the better passing offense. That is obviously going to be New Orleans. It might not be the most prolific aerial assault we’ve ever seen, but it’s certainly better than whatever the hell the Titans are doing. Carr and the Saints offense will simply make more plays down the stretch to win it late.
49ers 23-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This might just be the best game of the week. I’m very high on both of these teams this year and I’m expecting them to both come out and play a great opener.
Both offenses should look solid as the Steelers enter year two of the Kenny Pickett era with their core of young playmakers and the 49ers get Brock Purdy back after his unceremonious exit last January. With the sheer amount of offensive talent across the board on both sides of the ball, I think there could be more points than expected.
But I really think this matchup boils down to whoever makes more plays defensively. It feels natural to assume that both offenses will put together enough drives to put up points, but this is the type of game that gets won on a strip sack or a late interception. And when it comes to defenses, there’s none that I’m going to take over the 49ers.
Commanders 24-15 Cardinals 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The fresh start of football in the nation’s capital gets underway in front of a raucous, sold out FedEx Field crowd against the worst team in the NFL starting Josh Dobbs at quarterback.
If we lose this game, you might never hear from me ever again.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think we’ll come out and look like world beaters by any metric. This team isn’t exactly built like that. I’m expecting a performance more similar to the 2022 Texans game. It’ll be largely boring, but dominant. The defense should absolutely feast up front, the secondary will make plays, and the offense will do their jobs.
I would love to see Sam Howell light up a Cardinals defense that should, by all means, get carved up by any team in the league. But I’m not expecting him to come out and play perfectly. As long as he does what he has to do and puts this team in a position to win the game, this will be a success.
Ravens 27-13 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the AFC.
This one is pretty simple. Déjà vu anyone?
I will still be locked in on this game for two reasons. My primary interest is seeing how C.J. Stroud looks in his NFL debut. I’m not expecting anything crazy from him considering the complete and utter lack of talent surrounding him and the fact that he’s going up against an elite Ravens defense, but I just want to see more positives than negatives. And then there’s the matter of the new-look Baltimore offense, which has been hyped up to no end. If the hype is real, they should absolutely dismantle this Houston defense. We’ll see how it plays out for them.
Packers 23-20 Bears 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
Nothing says Week 1 like Packers-Bears.
I’m actually very excited to watch this game. I’m obviously very high on both Jordan Love and Justin Fields, although I think one of them is in a much better situation right now. All of the storylines in this game revolve around those two young signal-callers. How is Love going to look now that he’s the franchise QB in Green Bay? How is Fields going to look now that he has D.J. Moore to throw to? Are the Packers going to look better than they were under Aaron Rodgers last year? Are the Bears still going to look like the worst team in the NFL?
I don’t know if any of these are going to happen. But this game figures to be a close one. It’s an opening game rivalry between two young QBs who are bound to make some mistakes. It really just comes down to whoever makes less of them. And as much as I love Justin, I think I actually trust Jordan more at this point. It helps that he has a much better surrounding cast.
I just think Green Bay’s talent on both sides completely trumps Chicago’s, and that’ll end up being the difference down the stretch.
Broncos 20-17 Raiders 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
This game is going to be a total dumpster fire. Let’s just hope it’s a watchable one.
I’m picking the Broncos here because, at the very least, they have the better coach in this game. They might have the better quarterback. They certainly have the better defense. I’d say they have a home-field advantage, but that meant nothing for them last year. The Raiders won in Denver last year for crying out loud!
But that was then, and this is now. This feels like the kind of game that the Broncos win on the back of a few turnovers or key defensive plays down the stretch. I just don’t trust the Raiders on either side of the ball to do anything to actually win a football game.
Eagles 26-20 Patriots 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
This will be a tougher test for the defending NFC champs than a lot of people expect. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Patriots manage to come out on top. They certainly have the defense to keep the Eagles in check, and Bill Belichick always brings his A-game against mobile QBs.
But Jalen Hurts is more than just a mobile QB. He’s one of the best at his position in the league for a reason. He can certainly hurt you on the ground, but he can sling it all over the yard with the best of them. Mac Jones, on the other hand, can’t do either. And that’ll be the difference in this game.
Both defenses should ball out for a while, but when it’s time for the offenses to step up, I think the Patriots will struggle while the Birds are able to fly high and simply make more plays to earn a hard-fought victory.
Chargers 27-24 Dolphins 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
This matchup has simply turned into a yearly reminder of how much better of a quarterback Justin Herbert is than Tua Tagovailoa. While I don’t think that’s going to be the whole story on Saturday evening, it’s certainly going to be the difference.
These rosters are both stacked from top to bottom and always match up well with one another. In a matchup like that, there are two differentiating factors. The first one is typically the better QB, which is obviously Herbert. The second is the better defense, which I definitely think is Miami’s. But sometimes the better QB overcomes the better defense — see: Super Bowl LVII. I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen yet again in this game.
There should be fantasy points galore, but when it boils down to it, the Chargers have the better player throwing the football, and he will lead them to victory.
Seahawks 30-14 Rams 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
Alright, let’s do this one last time.
The Seahawks are one of the best teams in the NFC. The Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFC.
This one is pretty simple.
With no Cooper Kupp for the Rams, they won’t have a semblance of an offensive identity. They’ll just force feed Cam Akers carries and hope that works against a very stout Seattle front. The Seahawks, on the other hand, should make minced meat of LA’s atrocious secondary with their trio of exceptional wide receivers. Geno Smith should have a field day, as should the playmakers on Seattle’s defense, and this one should be the biggest blowout of the week.
Cowboys 24-16 Giants 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Death. Taxes. Cowboys-Giants on Sunday Night Football to open the season.
Last year’s matchups between these two rivals proved how much better Dallas is than New York. That’ll be the case once again on Sunday night.
The Cowboys are significantly better on offense and improved on defense to the point where I don’t even know if this one will be close. New York’s defense could keep the team in it for a bit, but the wheels have to come off eventually. There’s a real chance this is a complete blowout. But with this being a divisional game and the Cowboys going on the road, I’ll give the Giants the benefit of the doubt to keep things close for a bit. Still, there’s no doubt in my mind that Dallas is the better team that should win comfortably in the end.
Bills 23-16 Jets 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
I think it’s fair to say that I’m a bonafide hater of the 2023 New York Jets. But even if I wasn’t, I still don’t think I’d pick them to win this game.
The Jets definitely match up well with the Bills — they won this game last year in East Rutherford and only lost by 8 in Buffalo. You’d think with a reloaded offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm instead of Zach Wilson or Mike White or whoever, the Jets should be the better team.
But they’re not. I’m sorry, they’re just not. They are plenty talented, but games are not won on paper.
There’s no evidence to suggest that Aaron Rodgers won’t look just as bad against the Bills as he did on Sunday Night Football last year in Buffalo. Even with Von Miller being out, the Bills defense is still plenty good enough to shut down a Jets offense with maybe three real playmakers. I’m sorry for not saying it’s likely that Garrett Wilson is going to catch 15 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. It’s much more likely that the Jets offense struggles in their first game after being smushed together like a bunch of puzzle pieces that don’t fit.
The Bills, on the other hand, know exactly who they are on offense, and Josh Allen always lights up the scoreboard when it’s warm out. I think he’s going to vastly outplay Aaron Rodgers and the Bills offense will make far more plays to help their team come out on top.
I’m not saying it’s going to be a blowout — although that wouldn’t surprise me — but I genuinely don’t see an avenue for a Jets win here unless Allen turns into a pumpkin. New York’s defense is good enough to make that happen, but their offense isn’t good enough to capitalize on it. At least not yet.
All stats taken from ESPN.
Raza Talks Sports 