Cover photo taken from Sports Illustrated.
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. The 2022 season has come and gone in the blink of an eye, featuring some of the best games, plays, and storylines in recent memory, and we have one game left to decide a champion. These playoffs have been a blast, and our two 1 seeds remain to battle in what could be an instant classic. Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. Let’s take a look at each team’s journey to get to the big game.
How the Chiefs Got Here
After falling apart in last year’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs had a lot of questions to answer and a lot of soul-searching to do. Trading away perhaps the best WR in football in Tyreek Hill, letting go of key veteran defenders in favor of starting rookies, and continuing to rebuild their broken offensive line led many people, including myself, to believe that Kansas City was heading for a mini-rebuild. I still thought they’d be just fine, considering they have the best quarterback of all time, an all-time mastermind head coach, and perhaps the best receiving tight end to ever play the game. But none of us saw them being this good again. Despite all of the aforementioned losses, all the Chiefs did this season was put a better product on the field en route to a nearly spotless 14-3 campaign led by QB Patrick Mahomes winning his second MVP in runaway fashion after accounting for the most total yards of any player in NFL history with 5,250 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns and 358 yards with 4 scores on the ground to boot. They don’t have a real WR1, but nobody needs one when you have Travis Kelce, who dominated defenses once again to the tune of 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. The WRs essentially operate by committee, but Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Kadarius Toney are all capable when they’re on. The offense is completely surgical, bleeding out the opposition with a thousand paper cuts. The unit has adapted and become even more effective without an explosive element, which has terrified every single defense they’ve played this season. They’ll need to bring their A-game against perhaps the best one yet, including the best pass defense in the NFL.
The defense might be young, but the vets are still doing their thing. DT Chris Jones was by far the best interior defensive linemen this season with 15.5 sacks with two key ones in the AFC title game to help the Chiefs get to this point. The rookies have shown some promise, but they will need to step up and play key roles in this game if they want to contain a well-balanced machine of an offense that the Eagles possess. It’s going to be a battle in the trenches all game long, but with the way Kansas City’s defensive front is playing, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they can get pressure and keep the rushing attack limited.
The Chiefs have the talent and the identity to win any football game in any fashion. Betting against Patrick Mahomes is a mistake that always comes back to bite. Not many people are giving them a chance in this game, which might not be smart. But it also might be warranted when you consider the team that’s lining up across from them.
How the Eagles Got Here
Like most people who pay even the slightest attention to this league, I thought the Eagles would be pretty good this year. They had an incredible offseason, making amazing moves to fill positions of need on the roster and build one of the best teams from top to bottom in the NFL. I said they would win the division with a 13-4 record, but fizzle out in the playoffs. I thought they were great but young, lacking in the experience and perhaps the talent to compete with the veteran teams of the NFC. All these months later, they have the chance to stamp themselves as one of the greatest teams of the 21st century.
It all starts with Jalen Hurts, the third year QB who took the league by storm in 2022. Many people, including myself, have doubted his ability to be an effective thrower of the football in this league. For the longest time, I was unsure of whether or not he had what it took to be a franchise guy. Any and all doubts were put swiftly to bed with his amazing, near-MVP campaign featuring 3,701 passing yards and 22 touchdowns paired with 760 yards and a whopping 13 scores on the ground. A shoulder injury derailed the end of his season and a shot at a potential MVP, but everyone knows what Hurts is capable of when he’s clicking. The shoulder may limit him in this game, but he is as competitive and determined as any athlete in all of sports, and I guarantee that he’s going to step up and show out on the biggest stage.
It helps that the offense around Jalen is so spectacular. The Eagles had massive holes to fill at WR dating back to 2021. They drafted Heisman-winning WR DeVonta Smith last year to help, but they still needed a bonafide WR1 in the offense. So this past draft night, they made a huge splash to trade for star pass-catcher A.J. Brown from Tennessee. The combination of Brown and Smith has proven deadly, as both finished in the top 10 for receiving yards (1,496 and 10 TD for Brown, 1,196 and 7 TD for Smith). Dallas Goedert also provides some of the best complementary play from the TE position in football. But where this team really makes its money is in the run game. The three-headed monster coming out of the backfield is headlined by Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell. Sanders leads the way with 1,269 yards, but the guys behind him put in work whenever their numbers are called. Having one of the best offensive lines in football certainly helps with that. All five starters up front could end up being Hall of Famers, and they have been far and away the best line in football this year. It’s damn near impossible to see the possibility that they crack at all, even against a great Chiefs front.
And then there’s the defense, which has been one of the best in football all year long. They’re deep, they’re stacked all over the place, and they’re impossible to move the ball on. The front is malicious, led by edge rushers Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham, as well as interior men Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. The LB core, which was previously one of the worst in the league, now bolsters names like Haason Reddick, who was second in football this year with 16 sacks, Kyzir White, and T.J. Edwards. The secondary was the best in football this year, giving up less passing yards than any other team in the league (179.8/game). DBs like Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox have been locking it down for a while in Philly, but newcomers James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who the Eagles got for pennies on the dollar, have pushed this unit over the top en route to being the best in the league.
The Eagles haven’t broken a sweat all year long. They get ahead in games and then bleed you to death with their run game and defense. They gave up just seven points in each playoff game, winning both by a combined score of 69-14. That’s as nice as it gets in this league. I recognize that they’ve gotten some breaks along the way, but that doesn’t make this team any worse. Nothing can do that. They are the best team in football and have been all year long. Their tallest test stands in front of them, but they are more than capable of getting the job done once again.
Key Matchups
Championships are won in the trenches. The matchups up front on both sides of the ball are going to determine this game, just as they have determined almost every Super Bowl I’ve ever watched. To me, the biggest matchup in this game is the Chiefs defensive front vs. the Eagles offensive line. It’s strength on strength: the areas in which both teams make their money. The Eagles line hasn’t been beaten once all year long. Two weeks ago, they made rather light work of one of the best defensive fronts I’ve ever seen when they pushed the 49ers around for 60 minutes. They have an admittedly easier but still very difficult task in front of them with the Chiefs front, which boasts the like of Frank Clark and Chris Jones. If Philly can push them around and open up lanes for the run game as well as keep Jalen Hurts upright long enough to make the necessary throws, then the Eagles could run away with this game. But if the Chiefs can penetrate and make Hurts and the offense uncomfortable, then the Birds will have a big problem on their hands. They love being the more physical team, getting out to an early lead, and then pounding you into the ground. If they can’t run the ball or if Hurts can’t throw with his shoulder injury, then they are finished. They do not want to fall behind in this game under any circumstances. If they do, I don’t know if they have what it takes to come back and beat Patrick Mahomes.
Another extremely imperative matchup to watch is the Chiefs young secondary going up against the plethora of weapons on the outside for the Eagles. They have struggled more than they have thrived this season, especially in the playoffs. The Jaguars gave them fits, and the Bengals shredded them. That being said, they have also made key plays when it counts, including three key interceptions in big moments across those two playoff games. I don’t think the Eagles possess a better core of weapons than Cincinnati did, but I know for a fact that this defense is susceptible to getting torn apart, and that Philly offense is more than capable of doing that to them. If they can’t contain A.J. Brown and/or DeVonta Smith, then Jalen Hurts will take advantage and throw the ball all over the yard. I still have my reservations about his shoulder issues, but he can make the easy throws. If those throws are there, then the Chiefs won’t be able to keep up. But if they can limit the passing attack and let their defensive front handle the load by dealing with the rushing attack, Kansas City might have an easier time keeping things under control and letting their offense do the heavy lifting.
I would say Patrick Mahomes going up against the best secondary in the league is something to watch, but I think we all know he’s more than capable of shredding any secondary at any time on any stage. I am never ever going to doubt his abilities, especially when the lights are brightest. It’s going to be difficult, but between his incredible ability and Andy Reid’s ability to gameplan after two weeks of preparation, I feel comfortable saying that Mahomes is going to get his game off. It’s honestly just a matter of how the other side of the ball performs.
My Pick
Last Week: 1-1
Season Total: 181-99-2
Before I get into my pick for the game, I think it’s worth noting that I have not picked a Super Bowl correctly in seven years. The last team to not let me down was the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. It has been downhill ever since. I feel fairly confident in my pick for this game, but I’ve been swayed back and forth over the last two weeks. It’s a very difficult pick to make when both teams match up so well with one another. It’s even more difficult when one team is so deep, but the other has the best football player ever lining up at QB. I’ve been thinking about it nonstop, crunching the numbers, micro-analyzing every matchup at the most granular levels, and reading into superstitions. But after all that, I’m sticking with what my gut has told me since the Championship Games went final on January 29th.
Eagles 27-20 Chiefs
Sunday, 6:30 PM EST, FOX
Simply put, the Eagles are the better football team in this game. They have the better roster from top to bottom with far less holes, if any. They execute flawlessly on both sides of the ball, and when they’ve been fully healthy like they are in this game, they’ve only been beaten once (and it was at the hands of your Washington Commanders!). I recognize that the Chiefs have more experience, perhaps the best coach in the league, the best QB to ever touch a football, and so many signs point in their direction. I told myself two weeks ago that I’d never bet against Patrick Mahomes again, but I can’t even bring myself to pick them when they’re the clear side as a 1.5-point underdog on a neutral site. I just don’t see the Eagles losing this game. Moreover, a ton of trends are in their favor. The top-tier defense almost always beats the top-tier offense in the Super Bowl. The MVP curse is real in the Super Bowl; nobody to win the award has won the big game in this century. On top of that, the three previous times that the MVP runner-up has faced the winner in the Super Bowl, the runner-up has won. Jalen Hurts is more than capable of making it four.
I do have some worries about the Eagles in this game, though. The main one lies with Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury, which has limited him severely as a passer since he returned to the lineup. He hasn’t needed to throw the ball whatsoever in the games leading up to this point, but if Philly is to win this game, he will need to make all the requisite throws in big time spots. I don’t know if the run game will be able to carry the entire load on its shoulders. Moreover, the Eagles lack Super Bowl experience in key spots. The only people on the offense who have been to this game are on the offensive line, and the only defenders who have are the rotational defensive linemen. Experience can play a very big factor in a game like this, especially when you’re facing the Chiefs, whose QB has been to 3 Super Bowls and whose coach has been to 4. They know what it’s like to lose, and they know what it’s like to win. They’ve made mistakes, and they’ve learned from them. That’s a pretty scary sight for a team full of guys in Philly who have had it pretty easy all year long.
To me, it all boils down to one thing: Patrick Mahomes will need to be Superman for the Chiefs to win this game. If they are to emerge victorious, he will have to put together the piece de resistance of his young career. I don’t think his defense has what it takes to contain the Eagles offense, so he’s going to have to put the team on his back and cut up the opposing defense and outscore Philly. He’ll likely get no favors from his run game, so it’s going to be a 50 to 60 pass attempt-type of game. As much as I know for a fact that Mahomes is capable of doing such a thing, I just feel like the wheels are going to come off at some point or another. The Eagles are a team that is built to win a championship from top to bottom. The Chiefs have too many holes to ignore, and I think that will be their undoing in this game. It pains me immensely to say it, but I have already surrendered to the idea that the Eagles are going to win their second Super Bowl in the last six years. Help me, Patrick Mahomes. You’re my only hope.
I just want to close this out by saying a huge thank you to everyone for another fantastic season. This was the first time in my three years of doing this that I was able to cover the NFL every single week from the preseason all the way to the Super Bowl, and it was a blast from start to finish. Thank you to everyone and anyone who read a piece, clicked a link, retweeted an article, or even gave me the slightest time of day. It truly means a lot as I continue to grow and try and get better at providing the best content that I possibly can. It has been amazing, and I can’t wait to keep moving forward. I hope you all had a great year, and have a great Super Bowl Sunday. I’ll see you guys in a few weeks for March Madness and the start of the baseball season. Until then!
All stats taken from ESPN.
Raza Talks Sports 