Cover photo taken from Sporting News.
Last Week: 13-3
Season Total: 141-80-2
Jaguars 23-16 Jets 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
These teams are trending in completely different directions. With Zach Wilson starting again for the Jets, they are going nowhere fast and crashing out of the playoffs. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are primed to make a push for the division title, and a massive win on primetime would go a long way in getting there. This is going to be a very tough road test for them against a stout New York defense, but I have the utmost faith in Trevor Lawrence to get the job done. He has been one of the best QBs in the league in the last couple of months, and I think he’s going to put together another great game en route to a victory. He might not put up the biggest numbers in the world, but it won’t be necessary. There’s a better chance than not that Zach Wilson just hands Jacksonville this game on a silver platter.
Bills 27-19 Bears 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Bears have been the same team for several weeks now. They’re competitive thanks to Justin Fields’ dominance and they play everyone close, but they never win. That’s pretty much what I expect to see happen again on Sunday. The Bills are definitely good enough to put away a team like Chicago early, but for some reason, the Bears love hanging around, making them such a difficult team to bet. But there’s no way they win this game, so that makes the straight up pick significantly easier.
Browns 16-10 Saints 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Have you guys seen the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday? It’s going to be frigid, snowy, and ugly. Just take the under in this game and call it a day. In conditions like that, I have to trust the more physical team with a better run game, which is very clearly the Browns. The Saints can definitely push teams around on their best day, but they don’t have many of those nowadays. I do think this game will be extremely competitive as both teams have something to play for, with the Browns still in Wild Card contention and the Saints just a game out of first place in the division. I just like the Browns defense more, and at home, in the awful conditions, I just see Cleveland running it down New Orleans’ battered defense’s throat all game long to eke out a close, hard-fought victory.
Titans 23-17 Texans 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This is gross. I want no part of this. I was this close to picking the Texans to win this game, considering how close they played Tennessee in their first matchup. While the Titans keep falling apart, I just don’t think they’re going to stoop that low. This is going to be a tough battle from start to finish for both teams, and I wouldn’t really be shocked if the Texans came away with the win. I just find it too difficult to pick against Tennessee in a spot like this. They need a win desperately, and this is a golden opportunity for them to get one at home.
Chiefs 31-20 Seahawks 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
On paper, this might seem like it could be a super entertaining shootout at Arrowhead. While I think plenty of points will be scored, “shootout” seems like a bit of a stretch. While I hate the Chiefs pass defense, the Seahawks are struggling mightily on offense. This is a golden opportunity for them to get back on track, but it’s not easy to do that on the road against Kansas City. Regardless of how their offense performs, I just don’t know if they’ll be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. He has had to carry them on his back in recent weeks, but I think they can get it going again at home after a couple of tough road games. If Seattle looks like the team we saw a few weeks ago, then they have a great chance at pulling this upset. I just don’t see that happening in a spot like this.
Vikings 26-23 Giants 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Vikings let everyone hang around. They are incapable of winning a game convincingly. So this will naturally be close. But they are the better team and will win this game late, as they always do.
Bengals 24-20 Patriots 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Everyone, including me, thinks this game is going to be close. But I really don’t have a reason why. Going on the road to play the Patriots no longer poses the threat it did when I was growing up, and while their defense is very solid, they aren’t particularly good on offense. The Bengals are great on both sides of the ball and are one of the most complete teams in the league. By all means, they should blow the Pats out of the water. But going on the road in this league is difficult, no matter who you play. After the embarrassing loss last week, it only feels right that New England will hang around in this game. I don’t think they have it in them to get over the top and pull off what would be a mammoth upset to drastically alter the trajectory of the seasons of both of these teams, but they’re not going to go down without a fight.
Lions 20-17 Panthers 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to predict. Once again, the Lions are on the road against a feisty defense in a matchup that they could easily lose. Last week, it was the late-game execution of their offense which got the job done, and I don’t see why they can’t do that again. But what I’m looking forward to seeing in this game is their defensive performance. The Panthers couldn’t run the ball whatsoever last week, putting the game in the hands of Sam Darnold, which was obviously a disaster. If the Lions can replicate that, then this one really shouldn’t be close. The problem is that the Lions have the seventh worst run defense in the league. Carolina will be able to establish the run game and run their offense, so it will come down to whichever offense out-executes the other. It’s hard to pick against the Lions in that regard. Moreover, I just can’t pick Sam Darnold again. I do think the Panthers have a great shot to win this one, but I learned my mistake last week and will not make it.
Ravens 13-10 Falcons 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Ravens are still without Lamar Jackson, meaning Tyler Huntley will start once again in what should be one of the uglier games of the year on Sunday in Baltimore. There might not be 200 combined passing yards in this game between Huntley and Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder. It’s going to be a lot of running and a lot of defense for sixty minutes; think of a repeat of the Broncos-Titans game from a few months ago. Like the Browns-Saints game, I think this comes down to the better run game and defense, which both lie with the Ravens. With JK Dobbins back, their run game can hurt you in a multitude of ways, and I don’t see a rookie QB being one to break their defense. It’s going to be close and a disaster to watch, but I have no doubt that Baltimore will pull this out.
49ers 23-10 Commanders 
Saturday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
This is probably our toughest game of the season. We were able to go on the road and beat the undefeated Eagles in primetime, but this feels different. Many think the 49ers are better than Philly, and playing their defense is a recipe for disaster, especially with #4 under center. I can already see the multitude of turnovers that he’s going to commit as the offense stays in quicksand for sixty minutes. It feels like San Francisco won’t really have to do that much on either side of the ball to come away with a win here. They’ll have their hands full with our defense, but they might put up more points with their own defense, so it simply will not matter. My only hope is that we can bounce back from this inevitable loss well and close out the season with two strong games at home. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
Eagles 27-24 Cowboys 
Saturday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
I know what you’re thinking. How can I pick Gardner Minshew to beat the Cowboys on the road? Well, my answer is pretty simple. The Eagles are still the best team in the NFL across the board, so a backup QB with multiple years in the system can probably step in and execute pretty well. Also, let’s not act like Minshew is a bum. He’s a solid player and he can certainly operate this offense effectively. The Eagles know what’s on the line; they clinch the division and 1 seed with a win. They’re going to come out and play inspired football on both sides of the ball despite the injury to Jalen Hurts. Moreover, this just feels like such a typical Cowboys loss, especially when you consider the trajectory of this team right now. They struggled mightily with the Texans at home and got embarrassed by the Jags last week. People might think they’re going to seize this opportunity to beat a backup QB and keep on pushing for a division title. But that’s not going to happen. Minshew won’t have to do much as his run game and defense carries the Birds to a win and a clinching of the best record in the NFC.
Steelers 23-20 Raiders 
Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network
The tragedy of Franco Harris’ death right before this game can’t be put into words. This game would have been a celebration of one of the most iconic moments in football history as the 50th anniversary of The Immaculate Reception, and Harris would’ve rightfully been honored very well. I’m sure the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh will do everything they can to honor him in a different way. It’s truly an immeasurable loss, and he will be severely missed. It’s hard to even talk about this game because of that. I think Pittsburgh would have been my pick regardless. I like the way they looked last week in Carolina, especially defensively. I do think they will struggle with defending Davante Adams, but if they can replicate their performance against the run to limit Josh Jacobs, then all they have to do is execute their offense with little to no mistakes, and they’ll be fine, regardless of who starts under center.
Dolphins 30-20 Packers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is certainly the best game on Christmas, but the bar is extremely low. This isn’t even that good of a game on paper. By all means, the Dolphins should have their way with the Packers. Their passing game should thrive back at home against a porous defense, and their own defense shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Green Bay’s mixed bag of an offense. I’m expecting a massive day from the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo against the softest secondary they’ve played in a month.
Broncos 17-16 Rams 
Sunday, 4:30 PM EST, CBS
It’s really a cruel joke that the NFL’s Christmas present to its fans is this game. Nobody wants any part of this disgusting game between two of the worst teams in the league. This is one of those picks that I just drop here and move on. The only thing I know is that Baker Mayfield is going to struggle mightily against that Broncos defense. That’s the key matchup in this game, and that’s why I’m taking Denver to win.
Buccaneers 24-9 Cardinals 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
There’s really not much to say here. The Cardinals are starting their third string QB in Trace McSorley in primetime against a tough Bucs defense. Despite the memes, everyone knows he’s not very good. It’s hard to envision another 3rd stringer beating Tom Brady this season. Even in a tough road environment in primetime, I think the Buccaneers will dominate from start to finish. They need to string together some good performances if they want to hold onto this division lead, and this is a great chance for them to strengthen their grip at the top. I’d be truly shocked if they let this one slip.
Chargers 23-20 Colts 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Like the Texans and Bears, the Colts are a team that plays everyone close for some reason, but never comes away with wins. Giving up the largest comeback in the history of professional football after their star RB suffered a season-ending injury last week can’t be good for their morale. Perhaps that’s why they’re making yet another QB change, this time starting Nick Foles over Matt Ryan. I don’t know what to expect from Foles in the year of our lord 2022, but I know Indianapolis has it in them to compete at home, and I know that a Team like the Chargers will certainly let them hang around. But I’m not picking against LA right now. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, and nobody wants to see them now that they’re getting healthy. Justin Herbert will make the plays he needs to for the Chargers to win this game.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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