Cover photo taken from Flipboard.
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 128-77-2
49ers 23-14 Seahawks 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
These two teams are simply going in two completely different directions. The Seahawks have been trending downwards for a month now, and the 49ers are still flying high, even with Brock Purdy at QB. The rookie has been battling illness all week, but should be good to go in this game. But it frankly doesn’t matter. The Niners defense is the difference in every single game they play, and that will prove to be the case again on Thursday night. They’re going to suffocate the Seahawks offense that simply hasn’t been itself in recent weeks. Even in a tough road environment in primetime between division rivals, I don’t see a scenario where this game is even close.
Vikings 26-23 Colts 
Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, NFL Network
This is perhaps the weirdest game of the week to analyze and preview. I never have any idea what to make of either of these teams. With the Colts coming off a bye, I think they can certainly compete and hang around for a while in this game. But the Vikings coming home after their tough loss last week should give them the juice they need to come out on top. I don’t have faith in them to win any game super convincingly, so I’d probably take the Colts to cover here, but I think the superior offensive talent of Minnesota will put them over the top.
Browns 19-16 Ravens 
Saturday, 4:30 PM EST, NFL Network
I’m probably a fool for this, but it’s simply what my gut is telling me. I picked (and bet) against the Ravens last week in this exact same scenario and it came back to bite me. They’re once again short underdogs on the road against a rival with Tyler Huntley starting at QB. This time, I actually feel slightly better about picking against them. The Browns are simply better than the Steelers, and this will likely be a tougher environment for Huntley and the offense to play in. They’re not facing the world’s toughest run defense, which is good news for them, but I just have a feeling that this is the game where Cleveland finally puts it together with Deshaun Watson in the lineup. Baltimore’s defense is not invincible by any means, and while I don’t think the Browns are going to light up the scoreboard, I think they’re going to play their most complete game with Watson so far to pull out a late win.
Bills 24-17 Dolphins 
Saturday, 8:15 PM EST, NFL Network
This is another game that just feels weird. I feel like the Bills should absolutely dominate this game, and I’m expecting next to nothing out of Tua and the Dolphins offense. But no one else is either. So maybe they’ll come out and play the Bills close, or even lead for the majority of this game. People are jumping ship on Miami after last week’s loss, so they’re motivated to show out. This is a perfect opportunity to do so and suddenly jump back into the race for the division. That being said, I just don’t see them winning this game. Buffalo is far too solid, especially at home, and their defense is playing much better. I think they should control this game for the most part, and Josh Allen will make enough plays to put them over the top. Think a repeat of last week’s game against New York with just a little bit more scoring.
Eagles 31-13 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Eagles might have their backups in this game by the third quarter. I’m pretty sure they could play the entire game and Philly would still win by multiple scores. As long as Justin Fields gets his stats in, I’m good.
Saints 23-20 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is another strange game on paper. Desmond Ridder is making his first start at QB for the Falcons, which has been long overdue, and I actually feel good about the rookie’s chances. I just think going on the road to the Superdome makes for one of the toughest environments for a rookie QB to make his first start. At the same time, I feel nothing remotely positive about the Saints. Yes, they’re coming off a bye and yes they’re coming off a tough primetime loss before that, but this team hasn’t shown us any indication that they can play a complete 60 minute game and come out with a win, especially against a frisky team like Atlanta. I really want to pick the Falcons, but something’s just telling me not to. Maybe the Saints defense puts together a great game against a rookie QB. Maybe Andy Dalton takes advantage of a porous secondary. Somehow, someway, I just see the Saints coming out on top.
Lions 27-24 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This is by far the most fascinating game of the week. It’s one of the most fascinating games of the year. Which is really crazy considering it’s Lions-Jets. Neither of these teams can afford a loss if they want to stay afloat in their respective Wild Card races, and for that reason, this game is going to be played at an extremely high level. It’s going to be very physical, but I think it’s also going to be pretty high-scoring. These two offenses can let it fly, and while the Jets boast a solid secondary, they can definitely get pieced up by a WR room as deep as Detroit’s. Moreover, the Lions have proven me wrong about being able to play on the road. They no longer back down from the challenge of playing in the great outdoors, and I think they have what it takes to beat a great defense on the road. I know the Lions passing defense is atrocious, and for that reason, I think Mike White and the Jets offense will let it fly as well, but if this becomes a shootout, I trust the Lions ever so slightly more. This team is playing some of the best football in the league, and with the Jets limping after last week’s beatdown by the Bills, I think Detroit is going to take the game over with their offense and pull away another impressive win to get to .500 and right in the thick of the playoff picture.
Panthers 22-19 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Does a 3-point win for the Panthers not seem like the most obvious possible outcome for this game? They’re coming home after a huge win last week in Seattle, and they know they have to keep on winning in order to stay alive in the NFC South. The Steelers, meanwhile, have absolutely nothing to play for, and might have to start Mitch Trubisky again as Kenny Pickett is still in concussion protocol. That’s never a good sign, especially against this stout Panthers defense. I just love the way Carolina is playing lately, and I think the crowd in Charlotte is going to be electric as their team continues this improbable playoff push.
Cowboys 26-17 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
A lot of people, including Vegas, think the Jaguars are going to play the Cowboys very close in this game. I think that argument has a lot of merit considering the play the team has been playing lately and how stellar Trevor Lawrence has been in the last couple of months. But Jacksonville is simply too up and down to trust to put together back to back great performances. Moreover, they tend to struggle against elite defenses, which is just what Dallas has. The Cowboys are probably eager to show the country that they’re not the team that just struggled to beat the worst team in football, so I expect a typical performance out of them on both sides of the ball, utilizing their run game and suffocating defense to come away with a comfortable road win.
Chiefs 30-13 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
I know the Texans were very competitive on the road last week against a great team, but let’s be real. The Chiefs are much better than the Cowboys are. Last week was cute and all, but there’s no way Houston puts together a similar game against a vastly better team. Their defense actually plays solid ball at home, but I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to piece them up all game long and make them look like the typical Texans we’re used to seeing.
Broncos 20-17 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
This might turn out to be the Backup QB Bowl as Colt McCoy will be under center for the rest of the season in Arizona after Kyler Murray’s injury and Brett Rypien might have to fill in for the concussed Russell Wilson. Regardless of who starts for Denver, they’re easily my pick in this game. They put together their best offensive game of the season last week, and I think they can keep that going against another bad defense this week, especially at home. It won’t take much to score on this Arizona team. As long as their defense bounces back from last week’s embarrassment, I think Denver should be able to hold off the Cards and pull it out in the end.
Raiders 27-23 Patriots 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
This feels like such a great spot to buy low on the Raiders and sell high on the Patriots. These are two teams coming off polar opposite primetime performances; Vegas got shocked last Thursday night and New England looked very solid on Monday night. So, I’m fading the Pats. It just makes sense. I don’t think they’re as good as the team we saw on Monday night. Their offensive injuries are starting to stack up, and I simply don’t trust them to win another road game on the west coast, even if they stayed out there this week. I can’t believe I’m continuing to put faith in the Raiders, but I still like their offense and I think they can move the ball against this Patriots defense. Davante Adams needs to step up and bounce back from going ghost last week, and I think he can do just that. Combine that with a vintage Josh Jacobs performance, and the Raiders will simply outscore the Patriots to win.
Chargers 24-20 Titans 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
I honestly don’t know if this game will be this close. I’m putting some respect on the Titans, but there’s really no reason to do that. They have looked awful in the last month, and they inspire no confidence on either side of the ball. Their only bright spot is Derrick Henry, but I don’t think he can make up for this team’s shortcomings on his own. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a massive win on Sunday night and are trending in a completely different direction than Tennessee is. If their defense can put together another solid performance, then the offense will simply do the rest. This lowkey feels like a great place to fade the Chargers, but I’m not going to do it. I’m going to stick with my gut and the fact that they’re playing better football right now.
Bengals 23-20 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
Like so many other scenarios this week, this feels like a great place to buy low on the Buccaneers. They got absolutely humiliated last week and have a great chance to come home and make amends. I’d take them to cover for that reason. But I just cannot pick them to win this game outright. Even at home, the Bengals are simply too tough of a test. Their defense is playing too well to lose to this anemic Bucs offense. The potential loss of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd might hinder Cincy’s offense in this game, but if Joe Burrow has to force feed Ja’Marr Chase for sixty minutes, I think they’ll still be just fine. I think this will come down to whoever plays better defense, and at this point, it’s much easier to trust the Bengals.
Commanders 24-13 Giants 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Here it is. One of our biggest games in years. Our first home Sunday nighter in five years. They flexed us in here for a reason. It’s a real chance to separate ourselves in the Wild Card race. A shot at revenge for the vaunted tie from two weeks ago. This might as well be a playoff game. FedEx is going to be electric, and this team is going to play their best game of the year. I just know it. The defense is going to show up and show out against a Giants offense that got smothered last week. The offense is going to put together some nice drives and do what they have to do to win. Terry McLaurin is going to light up the box score. Brian Robinson Jr. is going to run through people. I can’t wait to see it. I haven’t been this confident in the fact that we’re going win in a very long time. So, this will probably end with me in shambles.
Packers 27-17 Rams 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
When the schedule was first released, this looked like it would be one of the best games of the year. A potential playoff preview on Monday night at iconic Lambeau Field. Now, it’s a game that absolutely nobody wants to watch. Baker Mayfield will get the start for the Rams (imagine telling that to someone in April), which is not a good thing despite the feel-good nature of last Thursday’s win. He’s going to look like the typical Baker in a very tough environment. Don’t be surprised if he winds up with three picks. The Packers aren’t great and don’t inspire much confidence on either side of the ball, but they’re at home off a bye against a team that’s absolutely dreadful on both sides of the ball. I think they’re going to look just fine and win easily.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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