Cover photo taken from Sporting News.
Last Week: 14-0-1 (!!!)
Season Total: 120-72-2
Raiders 27-17 Rams 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
The Rams are a complete mess at QB right now. It doesn’t matter whether it’s John Wolford or Bryce Perkins or even Baker Mayfield. They aren’t going to win this game. The Raiders are playing great ball lately and are seeing their fourth straight win. If they stick to their bread and butter of feeding Josh Jacobs and letting Davante Adams dismantle opposing corners, they’ll be fine. Jalen Ramsey is obviously a tough test, but Adams has toasted him before, and I think he’ll do it again on Thursday night. As long as Vegas’ defense does its job against an anemic Rams offense, the Raiders should win comfortably.
Bills 24-20 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Vegas thinks this is going to be a complete wash for the Bills, and I don’t get it. For starters, the Jets beat this Bills team when they had Zach Wilson starting just a month ago. Division games are always close, especially when two great defenses are at work. And Buffalo will still be without Von Miller against a team that can run the ball pretty well. New York will certainly be competitive in this game unless Mike White turns into a bum, which I don’t see happening. If he can keep feeding Garrett Wilson and the RBs do their thing, then they definitely have a fighting chance. I don’t think it’ll be enough to win in a very tough road environment, though. Josh Allen has been playing better football in recent weeks, and that’s all the Bills need to win football games. I’m excited to see how they look, but regardless of what that is, I think it’ll be good enough to come away with this key victory.
Bengals 26-23 Browns 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
One of the great mysteries of the NFL is how Joe Burrow has never beaten the Cleveland Browns. They just have the young star QB’s number for some reason. However, all good things must come to an end. The Browns should look better on Sunday than they did last week, assuming that Deshaun Watson has gotten his jitters and rust out of the way. But this is going to be an infinitely tougher test. The Bengals are playing some of the best football in the league right now, with both sides of the ball firing on all cylinders. Cleveland has simply looked average at best on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt and trusting them to keep it close (and cover), but I don’t see them shutting down Burrow and company again, especially with Ja’Marr Chase back this time.
Cowboys 38-10 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Not talking about this one. There’s a reason this spread is straight out of college football Next!
Lions 30-27 Vikings 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Lions are my absolute favorite pick of the week. This is just a perfect storm for them and everything I have been praising them for over the last month or so. They’re at home on a hot streak in which their offense has been scorching hot and their defense has been better. Jared Goff is great at home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been unstoppable. The RBs are doing their thing. This could be Jameson Williams’ coming out party as well. I do think their defense will have their hands full with the Vikings’ star-studded offense, but I find it damn near impossible to pick Minnesota in this game. They struggled mightily with Detroit in their first matchup, and that one was in Minneapolis. The Vikes have been extremely lucky in one-score games this year, and maybe a regression to the mean is in order. I think the Lions are simply going to outscore the Vikings in this one and keep the winning ways alive.
Jaguars 22-16 Titans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
I didn’t have many upset picks planned this week, but I feel better about the Jaguars than any other underdog on Sunday. They should be thanking their lucky stars that Trevor Lawrence is ok after last week’s scary sight. The Jags still got smacked, but that actually makes me feel better about picking them here. I think they’re eager to bounce back, especially in a game against a division rival. It’s going to be a tough road environment, but the Titans simply haven’t shown me anything to like as a team in recent weeks. As I said on Tuesday, this team doesn’t really do anything well anymore. At least the Jags can move the ball on offense. If their defense steps up and limits Derrick Henry, then I feel great about their chances of winning.
Eagles 24-13 Giants 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This kind of goes against my philosophy of road division games, but it feels warranted in a situation like this. The Giants are solid, but the Eagles are simply miles better than they are. I don’t see how New York musters up enough on defense to slow down this offensive juggernaut in Philly, and I think the Eagles defense should be able to limit big plays and keep the Giants at arms length. It could certainly be closer than this, but I just don’t see that happening. Philadelphia is an infinitely better team.
Steelers 13-10 Ravens 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This is all sorts of gross. The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson in this game, but even if he was playing, I think this would still be my exact pick. Baltimore is just so inept offensively, running a 1960s offense and failing completely at it. It’s obviously not their fault that they have no WRs, but it doesn’t matter. They’re not going to be able to get anything going against this stout Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will certainly struggle on offense as well, but that’s simply in their DNA. However, I think they have what it takes to get the job done at home. They’ll make one or two more plays down the stretch to win this game.
Chiefs 23-10 Broncos 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
The Broncos are an unwatchable disgusting mess of a football team. Patrick Mahomes has never lost a road game to a divisional opponent. It’s a pretty simple calculus, guys. I do think Denver’s defense will stifle the Chiefs a little bit, but it won’t be enough, and it will not matter. There is no way in the world that they can win this game, or even keep it close. Like the Eagles pick, this kind of goes against my typical philosophies, but it’s totally warranted.
49ers 16-13 Buccaneers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
In the preseason, this was my pick for one of the NFC Divisional Round games. A lot has changed since then, but that’s still entirely possible. But it won’t be at all what I envisioned. The 49ers are down to their rookie 3rd string QB in former Iowa State star and 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. Purdy looked solid last week when he was thrown into the fire, but this is going to be a much tougher test. The Bucs defense will make life hell for him. The good news is that the 49ers defense is the best in the league by a longshot, and they will make life even worse for Tom Brady and Tampa’s offense. I mean, this is a unit that had 3 points in 55 minutes against the Saints. The Saints! San Francisco’s defense should have a field day, but the game will be close regardless considering the state of their offense. So, this game comes down to the superior defense. Pretty easy pick in that case, isn’t it? It’s going to be ugly and low scoring, but the Niners will certainly come out on top.
Seahawks 24-14 Panthers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
This game feels like a total trap with the Seahawks only being favored by 4. I saw that and thought to jump all over it, but it just feels… wrong. Vegas definitely knows something we don’t. So, I won’t touch that line with a ten-foot pole. However, I will pick Seattle to win comfortably. They’re back at home against a Panthers team that has been solid and competitive, but not on the same level as the Seahawks. The loss of Kenneth Walker will hurt their offense, but they can throw the ball all the live long day. I think they’ll do just that and win comfortably.
Dolphins 30-20 Chargers 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Once again, I’m abandoning my philosophy here and simply taking the much better team to win. The Chargers just aren’t right, and their offense is pretty tough to watch while their defense gets toasted week in and week out. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses in football. They just got stifled by the best defense in the league, so they’re probably eager to put on a show in primetime. Their defense might struggle a little bit with Justin Herbert, but it might not matter if their offense lights up the scoreboard. I just don’t think LA has it in them to beat a team like Miami right now, even at home and in primetime.
Cardinals 23-17 Patriots 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
This game is so weird. It’s probably the biggest coinflip of the week. I don’t like what either of these teams are doing, and neither of them inspire confidence to win any given game on any given day. So I’m just going to take the Cardinals for the boring Raza reasons of them being at home in primetime and off a bye. I don’t exactly think their defense poses a threat, but neither does the Patriots offense. All the Cards have to do is limit their mistakes and force feed DeAndre Hopkins and James Conner, and they should be able to win. But, knowing this team, they’re probably going to fail disastrously and hilariously.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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