Cover photo taken from Dallas Cowboys.
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 86-62-1
Packers 20-17 Titans 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
This week’s Thursday nighter is going to be a strange one. Both of these teams are in weird spots right now, with both picking up wins last week but still in a really precarious spot on the season. Both Green Bay and Tennessee could really use a win here, but the Packers need one infinitely more. I think they have some great momentum from their comeback last week and have found a wrinkle in their offense by getting Christian Watson involved. While I think the Titans defense is probably the best unit in this game, it’s hard to bet against the Packers at Lambeau with everything going right for them. Plus, I just don’t know what to make of Tennessee’s offense right now. This is bound to come back to bite me, but I’m rolling with the hot hand.
Bears 26-23 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I don’t trust the Bears to win a game convincingly to save my life. Hell, I don’t know if I even trust them to win a game at all at this point. But the Falcons are simply a team that’s reeling more than almost any other in football right now. Even at home, I don’t see anything to like with them. At least Chicago has Justin Fields, who has been one of the most unstoppable players in the league for the last month. I don’t know if he’ll be able to continue replicating his incredible performances, but I know I can trust him more than anyone on Atlanta. Maybe, just maybe, this is the one that the Bears finally win.
Bills 17-14 Browns 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The big storyline here is the weather. It’s going to be one of the biggest blizzards that someone ever decides to play football in with plenty of wind to boot. So, at the very least, this is going to be low scoring and close (as long as they don’t move the game). I actually wanted to pick Cleveland here, seeing as though the conditions likely favor the better running team. But there’s simply no way I can pick the Browns in a game like this. The Bills need this win badly, and these conditions favor them seeing as though they’re built for it. I know they lost to New England last year in that frigid wind-fest, but I just feel like this one will be different.
Eagles 24-16 Colts 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Eagles finally suffered their first loss on Monday night, and I think it’s safe to say they won’t have many more games like that for the remainder of the season. They have a great opportunity to bounce back in this one. If last week was any indication, the Colts will be feisty, especially returning home, so I think this game will be close for a bit. But the Eagles are simply so much better than Indy is on both sides of the ball, and that will prove to be the difference. They won’t let themselves get physically dominated like they did against Washington.
Patriots 25-17 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Let me get a couple of things straight. I think the Jets are better than the Patriots. I also don’t think this game should be a blowout. But history is simply pulling me in this direction. The Patriots own the Jets so bad that it’s almost embarrassing. Every time you think New York has the team that can overcome New England, they collapse. It happened earlier this year when I picked the Jets, so I’m simply not going to make that same mistake again. I think it’s worth noting that I have only picked one (1) Jets game correctly all year long, and that was when they beat Denver. So, take this with a grain of salt. I just don’t trust Zach Wilson to not give this game away like he always does. He has been awful in every game he has played against the Patriots, and I don’t see that changing. All New England has to do is capitalize on those mistakes, and they’ll be golden.
Saints 19-13 Rams 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Remember when these teams were good? Yeah, those were the days. Now, they’re two of the most unwatchable teams in football that will make this game an eyesore from start to finish. At least the uniform matchup is gonna be great! Simply put, the Rams are going to accomplish absolutely nothing with Cooper Kupp out. He is their entire offense, and they won’t be able to move the ball whatsoever, even against an awful Saints D. New Orleans has nothing promising on offense either, but they certainly have more to like than LA at this point. All they have to do is get Alvin Kamara involved, and they will win. It’s hard to tell whether or not they will, but you just have to pray they use common sense.
Giants 23-20 Lions 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I wanted to pick the Lions so bad here. I just want the Giants to lose so bad. The question is whether or not I can trust Detroit in a spot like this. All signs point towards a resounding no, but they did put together another nice performance last week in Chicago, and that was a similar road environment to this one. But I just think this all boils down to a very simple matchup to assess. The Giants are the third best rushing team in football with 164 yards/game, led by this year’s top RB in Saquon Barkley. The Lions, meanwhile, have the second worst rush defense in the league, giving up an incomprehensible 160 yards/game on the ground. So, this will come down to whether or not Detroit can stop Barkley and the Giants on the ground. I simply do not see that happening. Maybe they can force Daniel Jones into some mistakes like they did last week with Justin Fields, but New York is simply better defensively than Chicago is, and that will also prove to be a huge factor.
Ravens 27-16 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
A 13-point spread seems a bit harsh, but this should be a blowout for Baltimore. They’re coming off a bye and likely getting some key offensive pieces back like Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards. The Panthers are coming off a mini-bye and a win last Thursday, but this is an infinitely tougher test than that one. Combine that with the fact that Baker Mayfield is starting this game for Carolina, and you have a disaster waiting to happen. The Ravens are way better on both sides of the ball and should control this one from start to finish.
Commanders 22-19 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is a must-win game. We cannot lose to the Texans after what we’ve done in the last 5 weeks. That’s the type of loss that completely derails a season beyond repair. This team has to stay focused and keep the good things going. This is the place where it would be so typical for them to lose. It has to be different this time. Yes, the Texans are a perfectly competitive team, but they also have the worst record in the league. I don’t care what the situation is. You have to win. The defense has to keep playing lights out, and boy would I love to see Chase Young make a huge impact in his return. The run game has to keep on moving the ball and making Taylor Heinicke’s life easier. And he has to keep feeding Terry McLaurin all game long. The formula is there and we should be able to execute it against the worst team in the league. Just… don’t lose.
Broncos 17-14 Raiders 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
I hate both of these teams so much that I don’t even want to pick this game. I don’t want to even think about this game. I’ll just drop this here and move on.
Vikings 26-23 Cowboys 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
On paper, this is probably the game of the week. Look at the Vikings getting so much national love! Good for them. That’s great and all, but I really need them to pull through and win another one. They are coming off an incredibly draining, emotional win last week in Buffalo. They could either keep that momentum up and come home to pull off another huge win, or they could fall flat on the national stage. While the latter seems more likely, I’m not going to lose faith in this time that I’ve been riding all year long. The Cowboys are coming off a 4th quarter collapse and probably want to bounce back in dominant fashion, but it’s going to be hard. Minnesota is playing great offense and the defense has some mojo now. This is such an air-tight matchup that is so difficult to pick, but I just think the Vikings are the better team, so I have to rock with them. This is another opportunity for them to make a massive statement, and I think they’ll be up to the task.
Bengals 20-19 Steelers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
Contrary to what you might think, this game should also be pretty tight. For starters, the first meeting between these teams was absolutely insane, and Joe Burrow had 5 turnovers. So don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Cincy will just roll in this game. I think Pittsburgh not having Minkah Fitzpatrick is a huge deal, but having TJ Watt is an even bigger deal. His impact was felt in a massive way last week, and I think the Steelers defense will once again make life uncomfortable for Joe Burrow, especially while he’s still without Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals we saw two weeks ago against Carolina are nowhere close to the Bengals we’ll see this Sunday. This all boils down to whether or not they can out-physical their bitter rival and win a tough road game. They couldn’t do it against Cleveland a few weeks ago. It’s really hard to imagine them doing it this week. But, I can’t trust Kenny Pickett and this Pittsburgh offense. At least the Browns have competent players on that side of the ball. The Steelers have nothing. By all means, this is a must-win game for Cincinnati, and I think their defense will rise to the occasion and make the difference in this game. Just don’t be surprised if it goes the other way.
Chiefs 31-20 Chargers 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
These teams are trending in completely opposite directions. The Chiefs are scorching hot and my #1 team in the league right now as Patrick Mahomes continues to shred defenses en route to potentially another MVP. They’re getting everyone involved offensively, and the defense is finally playing up to its potential. The Chargers, meanwhile, won’t stop falling apart, and there’s nothing Justin Herbert can do about it. The defense isn’t good at all and is likely going to get torched once again by this unstoppable Chiefs offense. Precedent would suggest that this will be a close game due to this being the second meeting between these teams and it being in primetime at SoFi and whatnot. To that, I simply say that I do not care. The Chiefs are leagues better than the Chargers, and Mahomes shines on primetime no matter where he plays. Give me KC in dominant fashion.
49ers 23-14 Cardinals 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
We still don’t know who will be starting at QB for the Cardinals in this game, but it doesn’t matter. The 49ers are an infinitely better team that should be able to handle them all game long. Arizona is certainly competent, and either QB gives them a good shot to win, but San Francisco’s defense will simply be too much to overcome. The Mexico crowd should also have a blast watching the Niners run all over the Cardinals’ defense, which gives up the third most points per game in the league. There could be a lot more points scored in this game, but this feels right for where these two teams stand right now.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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