Cover photo taken from NFL.com.
Last Week: 12-3
Season Total: 70-51-1
Eagles 29-14 Texans 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
It doesn’t get much simpler than this. This is the best team in the NFL facing off against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Even on the road, this should be an absolute wash for Philadelphia. The Texans have had a competitive edge to them all year long, especially at home, but this is their toughest test yet, and they haven’t looked the part in the last two weeks. They better hope they show up defensively and keep the Eagles offense at bay. In the off chance that they do, their offense has to go through that tremendous Birds defense. It’s just not going to happen. This should be another field day for Jalen Hurts and company. At least one of your teams will win on Thursday night, Philly!
Chargers 27-24 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Every time these two teams meet up, it’s absolute comedy. I’ve said it so many times before: they are the exact same franchise in two different conferences. So, at the very least, this should be close, especially with the Chargers coming off a bye. But they’re also coming all the way out east against a team that’s probably better than they are, and is certainly playing at a better level. Still, I feel like LA should come out on top here. I just don’t like how they’ve played all year long. I think the key for them is to get Austin Ekeler all the touches in the world, seeing how D’Onta Foreman dismantled the Atlanta defense last week. I don’t trust the Falcons to contain him, and with AJ Terrell likely still out, I don’t know if they can contain the passing game either. Their own offense can and will put points on the board and has shown us that they can win shootouts, but this feels like a bad matchup for them. It’s a total coinflip, so I’d avoid betting this one like the plague.
Dolphins 23-19 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This is another wonky matchup for me. One one hand, the Dolphins have looked great since Tua’s return and boast the best, most productive WR duo in the NFL. They also just added Jeff Wilson and Bradley Chubb to boost the run game and the pass rush at the trade deadline. But, this is a tough road test against a Bears team that’s improving every week. Justin Fields had himself a very nice game last week against an elite defense, so who’s to say it won’t happen again? I don’t see there being a ton of points on the board here; it should be hard-fought throughout and dominated by each defense. In a game like that, I have to trust the better, more talented offense in Miami. It’s just too hard to pick against them with how scorching hot they can get offensively. I don’t see Chicago’s defense being able to stop them.
Bengals 28-17 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Bengals are a solid team that went on the road and got embarrassed on national television by a division rival. I feel extremely confident that they’re going to come home and play infinitely better against a worse opponent after being smashed like that. Even without Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow is capable of putting up numbers against a defense as bad as Carolina’s. Moreover, Cincy’s defense should be fired up and ready to make amends for how poorly they played on Monday night. This just feels like the perfect bounce-back game for Cincinnati. They’re one of my most confident plays ATS (-7) this week.
Lions 30-27 Packers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Yes, you are reading this correctly. No, I am not joking. The Lions are an actually serviceable team at home, and they very nearly beat the Dolphins last week. Their offense just finds another gear at Ford Field, and the Packers defense isn’t nearly good enough to stop them. Dan Campbell will once again be coaching for his life in this game, and Detroit is just so desperate for a win. I think they’re going to be as fired up as ever against their bitter rival and muster up enough to get their first win in 7 weeks. Moreover, I don’t like anything the Packers are doing other than finally running the ball effectively, but they’ll need to rely on Aaron Rodgers to win this game for them, which I just do not have confidence in right now. I absolutely love the Lions +3.5. What a world.
Patriots 17-13 Colts 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
There is simply no way that the Patriots are going to lose at home to a team led by Sam Ehlinger. It’s a simple calculus. Bill Belichick owns young QBs, the Patriots are a better team at home, and the Colts don’t pose a threat. It’s very likely that Jonathan Taylor will once again be out for Indianapolis (as if that means anything at this point), and after seeing how he played last week against a similar defense to New England’s, I don’t trust Ehlinger to put up enough points with his arm to win this game. The Patriots might use last week’s dominant win over the Jets to slingshot them back into playing like a real team, and an easy matchup like this should help them tremendously.
Bills 24-10 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This would not be a blowout if the Jets of 2 weeks ago were playing in it. Alas, they are without Breece Hall and still need to depend on Zach Wilson to win them football games. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, as we saw last week. He is embarrassingly bad and will be awful once again this week against a great Bills defense. While I think New York’s own defense is good enough to contain Josh Allen and company for a bit (Stefon Diggs vs. Sauce Gardner is appointment television), it’s only a matter of time before they explode. The Bills will win this game in dominant fashion on the backs of their defense, and their offense will do enough to just cover the spread.
Vikings 23-20 Commanders 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I was very close to picking us in this game. My philosophy is simple: I have to see it to believe it. I can’t pick us to beat one of the league’s elite teams just because we’ve strung together wins against some bums. I need to be proven wrong before changing my mind. The Vikings aren’t exactly the scariest, most convincing 6-1 team ever, but there is no denying how good they can be. Their offense is as dynamic and scary as any in football, and while their secondary is pretty poor, their front seven is stacked and ferocious. It’s a pretty solid matchup for Washington, who might just be able to take advantage of a bad secondary. But do we really think Taylor Heinicke can beat a great team with his arm? I think the key for us is stopping Minnesota’s offense, especially containing Justin Jefferson. If you force the Vikings to beat you on the ground, then it plays right into our defensive strength up front. If they gash us through the air, then it’s over. I think that’s the more likely scenario. That would be one hell of a way to lose to Kirk Cousins in his proverbial homecoming.
Raiders 23-20 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Like the Bengals, I don’t think the Raiders are as bad as they showed us last week. It was pretty embarrassing, but they’re simply too talented to be that awful again. It doesn’t help that they’re back on the road for an east coast trip and a 1pm kick, but it does help that they’re facing one of the worst teams in the league. The Jaguars are only doing one thing well right now, and that’s letting Travis Etienne cook. But last week was indicative that they can’t just ride him to victory. I don’t think the Raiders defense is nearly as good as Denver’s, but I don’t think the Jags can win solely on the back of #1. They’ll have to rely on Trevor Lawrence to make plays, which I can’t bet on. In a game with two pretty bad teams, you have to side with the superior talent, which lies in silver and black.
Seahawks 27-21 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
This is a very tough pick to make. I feel very confident in Seattle and how they’ve played in recent weeks, including shutting down the Cardinals offense at home a few games ago. I simultaneously think that Arizona is better right now than they were in that game solely because of DeAndre Hopkins and his productivity since his return. However, I still like the Seahawks here purely based off their consistency. I know that Geno Smith is going to sling it and Kenneth Walker is going to run all over people. While I know that Kyler Murray and Hopkins will get their numbers, I don’t trust Arizona’s defense or their run game at all. They can’t win the game with only two players. Seattle’s defense will put up another solid game and the Seahawks will find a way to notch yet another win.
Buccaneers 20-17 Rams 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
Both of these teams have had quite the fall from grace since their classic in last year’s Divisional Round. The Rams boast one of the least productive offenses in the league including the second worst run game and a defense that continues to falter. The Buccaneers meanwhile have the worst run game, a QB who gets no favors from anyone, and a defense that is also struggling despite its talent. So, there will either be a lot of defense in this game or none at all. And there will be a lot of passes thrown. For that reason, picking the Bucs is fairly easy. They have the better QB, the better weapons, and the better defense. Oh, and they’re also at home off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday. I can’t put any faith in the Rams right now, especially with Cooper Kupp dealing with some ankle issues. He is their entire offense (hell, he’s their entire team), and if he can’t go or is less effective than usual, then they don’t stand a semblance of a chance. Tampa needs this win badly, and I think they’ll step up and make enough plays to finally snap their skid.
Chiefs 30-20 Titans 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
The Chiefs are virtually unbeatable off a bye. At home against a Titans team that nobody really feels great about in primetime, they should waltz to a win. For one, we still don’t know if Ryan Tannehill will return for Tennessee. If he does, then he’ll likely be limited. If he doesn’t, then Malik Willis gets the keys to the car for a second straight week after completing just six passes last week in an unconvincing win over Houston. I trust Derrick Henry to make this offense at least slightly productive, but on the road against a great Chiefs defense that’s starting to get healthy, it will be in vain. Patrick Mahomes and company should put up their usual fireworks. Look out for trade deadline acquisition WR Kadarius Toney to get involved and make some plays in his first game as a Chief.
Saints 26-23 Ravens 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
I feel like last week could have been the performance to get the Saints back on track, especially defensively. Stopping Lamar Jackson off a mini-bye isn’t an easy task, but I think at home in a primetime environment, they can muster up just enough to put up another solid performance. New Orleans’ offense is seemingly finding its groove as well now that Alvin Kamara is back to his dominant ways. I don’t think Baltimore’s defense can stop #41, and for what it’s worth, Andy Dalton has been solid for the Saints. He’s the inferior QB in this matchup, but Lamar’s weapons around him are dropping like flies and it’s hard to project who if anyone is going to contribute on a weekly basis. I just think this is a good matchup for the Saints, and it’s hard to pick against them at home in primetime. That’s going to be a raucous scene that could prove to be the difference.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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