Cover photo taken from Sporting News.
Last Week: 10-4
Season Total: 58-49-1
Ravens 20-17 Buccaneers 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
This is a total coinflip. Both of these teams make it impossible to put faith in them to win games. The Bucs are at home and the public loves them, with this line shifting several points in their direction. But, they’ve also looked atrocious all year long. The Ravens are coming off a win, but it was rather unconvincing, as so many of their performances are. Still, I’m going to side with them to pull this out, and it’s mainly because of their run game. They are going to get guaranteed production out of Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, and maybe even Kenyan Drake. We just saw Tampa get bulldozed on the ground by Carolina, so the 5th ranked rushing offense should do the same. Moreover, it’s impossible to feel good about Tampa’s offense, even against a subpar Baltimore defense. If the only unit I can trust lies with the Ravens, then they’re my pick. Hopefully they can get their passing game going as well.
Broncos 13-10 Jaguars 
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, ESPN+
If you choose to wake up and watch this instead of spending your Sunday morning sleeping in, you are a sadist. This is going to be one of the worst games that the London NFL fans will ever have the displeasure of watching. I feel bad for them, genuinely. It’s still unknown whether or not Russell Wilson will suit up for the Broncos, but I don’t think it matters. This game will essentially be a repeat of last week’s game against the Jets, but since the Jaguars aren’t even half as good as New York, Denver should win this game regardless of who lines up under center. Their defense will keep the bumbling Jags offense in check and likely force multiple turnovers to set up just enough short fields to let their offense win the game. That feels way more likely than Jacksonville having some sort of offensive explosion.
Falcons 23-20 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Are the Panthers back? It’s highly unlikely. Still, this is a division game, so it should be close enough. The Falcons are no longer locks ATS, so this feels like a reasonable margin of victory. Atlanta has a lot to work on offensively, especially in the passing game, and if Carolina’s defense plays like it did last week, then they could notch another win. The Falcons have to get Drake London and Kyle Pitts as well as their other WRs involved for their offense to function effectively. They can’t run the ball 40 times a game and hope to win. I don’t know how much I trust them to do that in this game, but I think last week provided them enough of a wakeup call for them to look like they did a couple of weeks ago.
Cowboys 21-10 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I would say this is a total mismatch, but I don’t think that’s entirely the case. Yes, the Cowboys have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the Bears have looked largely incompetent offensively for the majority of the season. But, last week was their best game yet, and they looked really good against a solid Patriots D. If they can replicate that performance, or at least that level of playcalling and execution, then perhaps they can stick around. Moreover, Chicago’s defense played a very solid game on Monday night, and Dallas’ offense is nothing impressive. This game feels like it plays into the Bears’ hands as both teams currently stand, but I just can’t bet against the Cowboys defense with how incredibly they’re playing right now. I think they’ll lock things down for a game very similar to last week’s.
Dolphins 28-20 Lions 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The only reason I think this game will be close is because the Lions haven’t given us any indication that they can’t play offense at home. It’s seemingly the only place they can function. There’s no way Detroit can keep up if they don’t get their key offensive pieces back, but Amon-Ra St. Brown will play, and D’Andre Swift should as well. But, they can’t function whatsoever on the other side of the ball, so the uber-talented Dolphins offense should have a field day. Their defense also had a turnaround performance on Sunday night, so we’ll see if they can keep that going and replicate it. This really shouldn’t finish as a one-possession game.
Vikings 26-23 Cardinals 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
While this may look like a clear-cut shootout on paper, I don’t think there will be an explosion of points on the board on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are competent enough to keep the other team in check. But, I think both of these offenses are good enough to make this one very entertaining. The Vikings are well-rested off their bye and the Cardinals played last Thursday, so there shouldn’t be any fatigue for either squad. It’s two solid squads going at it with pretty much no limitations, other than Arizona’s thin backfield. But Eno Benjamin looked great in his start last week, and should be able to handle the load well. This is honestly a tighter than matchup than most people would think, but I have to take the better team in Minnesota. It helps that they’re at home and coming off a bye. Their offense should put up their typical numbers and pull away late for a hard-fought win.
Raiders 31-24 Saints 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Now this is a shootout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams go over 30 points in this game. Yes, the Saints are still very thin on offense, but that didn’t stop them from scoring 34 last week. The Raiders are also finally catching their stride offensively thanks to giving Josh Jacobs the volume of touches that he deserves. He has emerged as an OPOY candidate and should have another great game against a porous New Orleans defense. Vegas’ defense still isn’t one to put much faith in, but if this game turns out to be the shootout that I anticipate, then I can definitely trust their offense to put more points on the board. Andy Dalton is starting again for the Saints, and I think he can put up some good numbers, but this isn’t a game I think the Saints are built to win as their offense currently stands.
Jets 21-17 Patriots 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Does someone want to explain to me why the Jets are getting points in this game? I know they lost Breece Hall, but Michael Carter is a solid backup, and James Robinson is bound to make a big impact in this backfield. And it’s not like the Patriots have some sort of vaunted defense; the Bears just gashed them for 60 minutes on Monday. While I have little to no faith in Zach Wilson, I don’t think he needs to do much at all for the Jets to beat a bad Patriots team that has no idea what it’s doing on offense. New England is dealing with a self-made QB fiasco, and nobody has any clue what the resolution will be. Will Mac Jones be the starter moving forward? Is Bailey Zappe going to continue to play in games? A 2-QB system doesn’t work in this league. The Jets, despite their injuries, are the better team and are dealing with a lot less internal dysfunction right now than the Patriots, so I have more than enough faith in them to win at home. What an incredible statement that is to type out.
Eagles 28-13 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This might be the most warranted double-digit spread I’ve ever seen. The Eagles, who are the league’s best team, are coming off a bye to face a Steelers team that is in absolute shambles at home. This will not be close whatsoever. Pittsburgh, despite playing a solid game defensively last week, has no idea what it’s doing on either side of the ball, whereas Philly is the most balanced team in the league. They will have a field day offensively, running all over the Steelers decimated defense, and they will make life hell for Kenny Pickett on the other side of the ball. Wins don’t come much easier than this for an undefeated team.
Titans 21-10 Texans 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
The Texans have proven to us that they are tough out, especially in the division. They beat the Jaguars and tied with the Colts. However, they now get the best team in the division, so this one should be a loss. Tennessee is playing boring but winning football right now, simply riding Derrick Henry and their defense to wins. Considering Houston’s brutal run defense, which is the worst in football, Henry should have a field day. And while I like Davis Mills, he’ll be under duress all game long against Tennessee’s elite pass rush. I’d like to think that this one will be close, but I just don’t see that happening.
Commanders 22-19 Colts 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
What was supposed to be one of multiple Carson Wentz revenge games is now a marquee matchup between backup QBs Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger. What a time to be alive. This game will likely be an unwatchable pile of garbage, but the one thing I have no doubt about is that it will be close. Both of these defenses are playing well enough to limit the production of bad offenses with backup QBs under center. It’s just a matter of which of those two can make the plays necessary to win the game. Considering I haven’t seen anything from Sam Ehlinger since he was wearing burnt orange on Saturdays, I’ll trust Taylor Heinicke, who has been in this situation before, to pull out a close on Sunday afternoon.
49ers 24-17 Rams 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
I’m rocking with the exact same score I predicted in the first meeting between these teams. Even though that game was a relative blowout for the Niners, who have upgraded since that game, I trust the rematch to be slightly closer, especially with the Rams coming off a bye. But, I just don’t see the 49ers losing after being embarrassed last week. Moreover, they’ll be coming off a full week for Christian McCaffrey to practice and continue being integrated, so he should be a big time difference maker in this game against an average Rams defense. Unless Matt Stafford and LA come out of their week off with a suddenly reinvigorated offense, they just can’t win this one. San Francisco always has their number and their defense is bound to make amends for last week’s pitiful outing.
Seahawks 24-19 Giants 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
It’s truly remarkable to think that this game between two teams I picked to have a combined 4 wins is the only one this week between two teams with winning records. The state of the NFL in 2022 is a wacky one. This should be fun, with two young teams that are vastly overachieving meeting head to head in what should be a great environment in Seattle. I’m done giving the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt at home, but I think that will play a factor. Daniel Jones hasn’t been anything great and can be affected by something like crowd noise. But, I do think his impact on this team’s success has been more than negligible. If he can continue throwing the ball efficiently and making plays with his legs, then he can hand the rest of the game to Saquon Barkley, who can win any game on his own. But Seattle’s defense is only getting better, and their offense has been great all year long. New York has a good defense that certainly has what it takes to bottle the Seahawks offense up, especially if DK Metcalf doesn’t play, but I’m putting my faith in Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker to lead Seattle to victory yet again and stretch their first place lead.
Bills 31-14 Packers 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Going into the season, this was one of the games of the year. Many saw this as a Super Bowl preview. Now, it’s a blowout waiting to happen with Buffalo being double digit favorites against a stumbling Green Bay team with no direction. The Bills will be well-rested off their bye and should absolutely dismantle this Packers team that couldn’t even find a way to beat the Commanders. Their offense will let things fly through the air and their defense will make Aaron Rodgers look like the moody drama queen he is all game long. Just take Bills -10.5 and don’t look back.
Bengals 30-20 Browns 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Simply put, these are two teams going in completely opposite directions. I know divisional primetime games are always close and low scoring and whatnot, but I just don’t see that being the case here. The Browns are bound to get ripped apart by Cincinnati’s elite passing attack that is only getting hotter as the weeks pass. I would like to think Cleveland’s rushing attack will do their usual thing, but the Bengals have a very stout defense that shouldn’t let too much by them. And we all know Jacoby Brissett can’t win this game with his arm. I think this is another huge game waiting to happen for Joe Burrow and company, even on the road.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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