Cover photo taken from New York Post.
The young season charges on with our first week featuring byes. Despite the lower number of games on the schedule, there are some fantastic matchups lying in wait that could make this the best slate of the season thus far. We could use a great weekend of football after some really sloppy games scattered across the league in the first month or so. I had another so-so performance last week, going 9-7 yet again to bring my season total to 42-37-1. A winning week is a positive, but I think we can still do a lot better. Let’s get into my picks for this week.
Bears 19-16 Commanders 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
I don’t want to watch this game. You don’t want to watch this game. Nobody in the world wants to watch this game. It’s a crying shame that this is a primetime affair. Let’s just get it out of the way. Both of these teams are dreadful, but one is clearly worse than the other. I don’t even want to talk about that team. Chicago can run the ball, and Justin Fields had a very good game last week. Despite the loss, I think the Bears can carry that momentum into this game and get the job done at home. They can just ride their backfield tandem of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and trust their defense to get the turnovers that the other team is so prone to.
49ers 24-16 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
By all means, this game should not be close at all. The Falcons are just confusing on both sides of the ball while the 49ers have the NFL’s best defense right now and are finding their groove offensively. I don’t think the Falcons have a chance in this game, but I have to respect that they’re a home and it’s a long road trip for San Francisco. Maybe just maybe Atlanta’s offense finally finds a rhythm with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but we don’t even know if either of them will play. It’s just a really bad matchup against a team that’s playing elite football.
Browns 20-17 Patriots 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This one is a total coinflip for me. I’m just pulling a Vegas and giving the home team a 3-point cushion. The Patriots looked way better than I imagined last week on both sides of the ball. Their offense is nothing special, but their defense seems to have returned to form. If they could shut down the Lions like they did, then they could probably shut the Browns down too, right? Well, it’s hard to replicate that on the road. I think Cleveland knows how imperative it is to win this game, and I think they’re going to come out and play a complete game. They need bigger contributions from the pass game, and I think they can finally get it. It’ll be a defensive showdown, and I trust the better offense at home to win the game.
Packers 27-21 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This game is weird. It just feels weird. It might be because the Jets are 3-2. It might be because the Packers are also 3-2 and just playing some really mediocre football. There’s a real chance for the Jets to win this game, which is quite frankly unfathomable. But, it’s damn near impossible to walk into Lambeau and win, especially for a young team like New York, even though they’re playing well since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup. I think they can hang around and keep things close, disrupting the game on both sides of the ball, but the Packers will do that thing where they win the game late and the media fawns over them for another week. It’s just written in the stars.
Jaguars 21-18 Colts 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Both of these teams are skidding and remarkably mid. To pick a winner here comes down to yet another coinflip. Although the Colts have arguably shown me more to like this year as a whole and are at home in this game, I just think the Jaguars are poised to end their losing streak and get back on track in this division race. I don’t see how their offense puts up a worse performance than they did last week, even if they are on the road against a better team. I think they’ll come out and play a much better game to just barely edge out a huge division win.
Vikings 26-19 Dolphins 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
At the end of the day, this decision comes down to picking between one of the best teams in the league or another great team that just so happens to be starting a 3rd string QB. Skylar Thompson will get the nod for the Dolphins after being inserted into last week’s game, and if that performance was any indication, there’s no reason to pick the Dolphins here. Maybe he’ll play better after a full week of practice, but this is a much taller test than the Jets were, so I just fail to see how the Vikings lose this game. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, so if their defense tightens up and plays better, this one might not be close.
Bengals 30-20 Saints 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This one should be fun. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are coming “home” to Louisiana for a game in the building where Burrow capped off the greatest season for a college QB in history less than three years ago. They’ll be facing a slightly better team this time around, though. The Saints are a tough out at home, but last week showed us that they just aren’t as formidable as we may have thought, getting absolutely scorched by the Seahawks. If there’s any game for the Bengals to figure out their offensive woes in the passing game, it’s this one. Considering New Orleans’ offensive injuries at the WR position, Cincy’s defense should be able to feast as well. There will be plenty of points put up on the board, and there’s no doubt in my mind that the Bengals are far more capable of putting up more than a team whose #1 option on offense is Taysom Hill.
Ravens 26-17 Giants 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Imagine telling someone last month that the Giants would come into this game with a better record than the Ravens. Regardless of that fact, I think both of these teams will be leaving with the same record on Sunday. Yes, the Giants are playing good football. Yes, they’re at home. But I still can’t pick them to beat a team as good as the Ravens are. I do think they have what it takes to contain Baltimore’s offense for the most part, but I trust Lamar Jackson more than anyone else in this game to make the plays necessary to win. I think he’ll be the difference late as the Ravens pull away for a hard-fought win against an honestly good team.
Buccaneers 31-10 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is going to be ugly. The Buccaneers offense is slowly but surely getting back on track, and playing the atrocious Steelers defense will help accelerate that process. Moreover, Kenny Pickett now has to play his second start against an arguably better defense than the one that held him to 3 points last week. It’s going to be another disaster from start to finish in Pittsburgh, and the Bucs should be thankful that they have this game on their schedule to help them get right as the young season progresses and they continue to get healthy.
Rams 30-13 Panthers 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
Like the Bucs above them, the Rams must be so thankful that they’re getting this game at the perfect time. The Panthers are the biggest mess in the NFL having just fired their head coach and have all of their stars on the trade block. Oh, and they’ll also be starting a 3rd stringer at QB. Los Angeles gets this dumpster fire of a team at home after back to back brutal losses in which their offense was nonexistent. It’s safe to say they’ll look more like their 2021 selves in this one. Both sides of the ball should feast on a team that had absolutely nothing going for them before this week’s events and now has even less going for them.
Seahawks 27-24 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
This might be the most overlooked game of the week. These are two teams that have brought some fireworks to their games this season in a pretty important game for both of them within this division. Nobody really knows what to make of either squad other than the fact that it’s seemingly impossible to look away whenever they take the field. The Seahawks have an improbably explosive offense, and the Cardinals are just the Cardinals. I think this is going to be a lot of fun, and I’m going to rock with the home team in Seattle even though the last time I did that, it came back to bite me. I just like the way this team is playing more than Arizona, who is super thin on offense at the moment. It’s yet another coinflip, but how can I pick against Geno Smith at this point?
Chiefs 33-30 Bills 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
Here it is. The Game of the Year. The rematch that we’ve all been dying to see for nearly a year. After these teams gave us perhaps the best game we’ve ever seen in last year’s Divisional Round game, all we’ve wanted to see is them face off once again. A playoff matchup obviously holds much more weight, but this will still be the most anticipated game of the regular season, maybe the best one yet again. The storylines are all over the place and speak for themselves, and quite frankly, everything about how these teams match up with one another favors the Bills. Maybe that’s why they’re 3-point favorites on the road, something rather unprecedented for the Chiefs at home with Patrick Mahomes. They have the far better defense in this game, as they’ve been playing the best on that side of the ball in the AFC. Josh Allen has been putting up unbelievable numbers, and outside of a wacky game in Miami, this offense has been unstoppable. But then again, so has Kansas City’s. They had their own weird loss in Indianapolis, but that was not at the fault of their offense. In every other game, Mahomes and company have looked as dynamic and limitless as ever. Again, their defense could be better, but this game has shootout written all over it, just like last year’s playoff game. How can I pick against the Chiefs, who get it done in this situation time and time again? I know the Bills won in Arrowhead last year in the regular season, but nobody remembers that after the playoff game. I don’t see them getting it done this time around unless their defense steps up in a huge way in their toughest test of the year by a long stretch. It’s entirely possible for that to happen, but you won’t catch me betting against Patrick Mahomes.
Eagles 23-20 Cowboys 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Yet another NFC East primetime clash. Everyone rejoices yet again! In all seriousness, this is a really good game on paper, and anyone who denies that is just lying to themselves. There are just so many great matchups here. The Eagles elite offense against the Cowboys stellar defense stands out as the main one. Usually, I trust the better defense, but I haven’t seen anyone stop Philly on that side of the ball yet to trust that it can even happen. Moreover, I don’t know how much I trust the Cowboys offense with Cooper Rush on a stage like this against the Eagles’ own great defense. Being at home also tremendously helps Philadelphia here. I think it will be close throughout, but they’ll make the plays in the clutch to win it and stay unbeaten.
Chargers 20-17 Broncos 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Another Denver Broncos primetime game. Hooray for us! Thankfully, this is the last one for a while. Our eyes can finally enjoy a primetime game by not having to watch Russell Wilson and this offense any more. Hopefully this one isn’t as big of a disaster as last Thursday. I don’t think the Broncos have much of a chance with the current state of their offense, but their defense will be good enough to keep them in this game. Still, I’m not picking against Justin Herbert and the Chargers on a stage like this. They can certainly keep Denver’s offense at bay, and their offense just has to score more than two touchdowns to win the game. They should be just fine.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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